TED2012
Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future
Peter Diamandis: Overflod er vores fremtid
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På scenen ved TED2012 laver Peter Diamandis et argument for optimisme -- Vi vil opfinde, innoverer og skabe muligheder for at løse de udfordringer der kommer imod os. "Jeg siger ikke, at vi ikke har vores problemer, det har vi helt sikkert. Men i den sidste ende, så løser vi dem."
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
(Applause)
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(Klapsalver)
00:18
(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.
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(Video) Oplæser: Trusler, i kølvandet på Bin Ladens død, er toppet.
00:21
Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.
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Oplæser to: Hungersnød i Somalia. Oplæser tre: Politi preberspray.
00:23
Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.
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Oplæser fire: voldelige karteller. Oplæser fem: ligeglade krydstogtsselskaber.
00:25
Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.
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Oplæser seks: Samfundets forfald. Oplæser syv: 65 døde.
00:28
Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.
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Oplæser otte: Tsunami advarsel. Oplæser ni: cyber-angreb.
00:30
Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.
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Forskellige oplæsere: Krig mod stoffer. Masse øddelæggelse. Tornado.
00:32
Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.
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Recession. Betalingsstandsning. Dommedag. Egypten. Syrien.
00:34
Crisis. Death. Disaster.
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Krise. Død. Katastrofe.
00:36
Oh, my God.
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Åh gud.
00:39
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips
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Peter Diamandis: Dette er kun nogle få af de klip
00:41
I collected over the last six months --
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som jeg har samlet i løbet af de sidste seks måneder-
00:43
could have easily been the last six days
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Det kunne nemt have været de sidste seks dage
00:45
or the last six years.
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eller de sidste seks år.
00:47
The point is that the news media
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Pointen er, at nyhedsmedierne
00:49
preferentially feeds us negative stories
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fortrinsvis giver os negative historier
00:52
because that's what our minds pay attention to.
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fordi det er dét vores hjerner lægger mærke til.
00:55
And there's a very good reason for that.
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Og det er der en rigtig god grund til.
00:57
Every second of every day,
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Hvert sekund af hver dag,
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our senses bring in way too much data
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får vores sanser alt for meget information
01:01
than we can possibly process in our brains.
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til at vi overhovedet kan bearbejde det i vores hjerner.
01:04
And because nothing is more important to us
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Og fordi der ikke er noget vigtigere for os
01:06
than survival,
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end overlevelse,
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the first stop of all of that data
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så er det første stop for al den information
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is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe
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en lille ældgammel del af temporallappen
01:12
called the amygdala.
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som bliver kaldet Amygdalaen.
01:14
Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,
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Amygdalaen er vores tidlig varsling detektor,
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our danger detector.
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vores fare detektor.
01:19
It sorts and scours through all of the information
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Den sortere og går al informationen igennem
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looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.
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for at lede efter alt det i vores miljø der måtte kunne skade os.
01:25
So given a dozen news stories,
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Så hvis man tager et dusin nyhedshistorier,
01:27
we will preferentially look
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så vil vi fortrinsvis lægge mærke til
01:29
at the negative news.
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de negative nyheder.
01:31
And that old newspaper saying,
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Et gammelt avis ordsprog siger,
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"If it bleeds it leads,"
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"'hvis der er nogen som lider, så skaber det forsider,"
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is very true.
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er meget sandt.
01:37
So given all of our digital devices
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Så når man kigger på alle vores digitale enheder
01:40
that are bringing all the negative news to us
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som bringer os alle de negative nyheder
01:42
seven days a week, 24 hours a day,
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syv dage om ugen, 24 timer i døgnet,
01:45
it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.
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så er det ikke utroligt at vi er pessimistiske.
01:47
It's no wonder that people think
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Det er ikke uforståeligt at folk tænker
01:49
that the world is getting worse.
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at verden bliver værre.
01:53
But perhaps that's not the case.
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Men måske er det ikke tilfældet.
01:56
Perhaps instead,
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Måske er det i stedet,
01:58
it's the distortions brought to us
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forvridninger som bliver bragt til os
02:00
of what's really going on.
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af hvad der i virkeligheden sker.
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Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made
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Måske er det utrolige fremskridt vi har nået
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over the last century
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i løbet af det sidste århundrede
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by a series of forces
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af en masse forskellige kræfter
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are, in fact, accelerating to a point
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rent faktisk er i gang med at accelerere til et punkt
02:12
that we have the potential in the next three decades
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at vi løbet af de næste tre årtier har potentiale
02:15
to create a world of abundance.
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til at skabe en verden af overflod.
02:18
Now I'm not saying
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Nu siger jeg ikke
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we don't have our set of problems --
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at vi ikke har vores sæt af problemer -
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climate crisis, species extinction,
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Klimaforandringer, artsudryddelse,
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water and energy shortage -- we surely do.
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vand og energi mangler -- det har vi helt sikkert.
02:27
And as humans, we are far better
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Og som mennesker er vi meget bedre
02:29
at seeing the problems way in advance,
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til at se problemerne meget langt ind i fremtiden,
02:32
but ultimately we knock them down.
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Men i sidste ende klarer vi dem.
02:36
So let's look
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Så lad os tage et kig på
02:38
at what this last century has been
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hvordan det sidste århundrede har været
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to see where we're going.
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til at se hvor vi er på vej hen.
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Over the last hundred years,
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Over de sidste hundrede år,
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the average human lifespan has more than doubled,
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er den almindelige menneskelige levealder mere end fordoblet,
02:47
average per capita income adjusted for inflation
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gennemsnitlige per capita indkomst justeret for inflation
02:50
around the world has tripled.
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rundt omkring i verden er tredoblet.
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Childhood mortality
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børnedødeligheden
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has come down a factor of 10.
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er faldet med en faktor af 10.
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Add to that the cost of food, electricity,
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Regn det sammen prisen på mad, elektricitet,
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transportation, communication
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transport, kommunikation
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have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.
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er faldet med 10 til 1,000 gange end den var før.
03:04
Steve Pinker has showed us
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Steve Pinker har vist os
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that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever
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at vi rent faktisk lever i den mest fredelige tid nogensinde
03:09
in human history.
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i menneskets historie.
03:11
And Charles Kenny
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Charles Kenny har vist
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that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent
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at global læsefærdigheder er gået fra 25 procent til over 80 procent
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in the last 130 years.
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i løbet af de sidste 130 år.
03:19
We truly are living in an extraordinary time.
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Vi lever virkelig i en ekstraordinær tidsalder.
03:23
And many people forget this.
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Og mange mennesker glemmer det.
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And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.
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Vi sætter vores forventninger højere og højere.
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In fact, we redefine what poverty means.
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Rent faktisk, så omdefinerer vi hvad fattigdom betyder.
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Think of this, in America today,
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Tænk på dette, I Amerika i dag,
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the majority of people under the poverty line
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så har størstedelen af folk under fattigdomsgrænsen
03:36
still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,
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stadig elektricitet, vand, toiletter, køleskabe,
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television, mobile phones,
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TV, mobiltelefoner,
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air conditioning and cars.
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air condition og biler.
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The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,
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De rigeste røver baroner i det sidste århundrede, kejserne på denne planet,
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could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
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kunne kun aldrig have drømt om en sådan luksus.
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Underpinning much of this
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Det der understøtter dette
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is technology,
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er teknologi,
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and of late,
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og på det sidste,
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exponentially growing technologies.
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eksponentielt voksende teknologier.
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My good friend Ray Kurzweil
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Min gode ven Ray Kurzweil
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showed that any tool that becomes an information technology
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viste at ethvert redskab som bliver en informationsteknologi
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jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,
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hopper på denne kurve, Moores Lov,
04:10
and experiences price performance doubling
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og oplever pris/performance fordobling
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every 12 to 24 months.
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hvert 12. til 24. måned.
04:15
That's why the cellphone in your pocket
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Det er derfor mobiltelefonen i din lomme
04:17
is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster
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bogstavligt er en million gange billigere og et tusinde gange hurtigere
04:19
than a supercomputer of the '70s.
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end en supercomputer fra 70'erne.
04:21
Now look at this curve.
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Kig på denne kurve.
04:23
This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.
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Dette er Moores Lov over de sidste hundrede år.
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I want you to notice two things from this curve.
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Jeg vil gerne have jer til at ligge mærke til to ting på denne kurve.
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Number one, how smooth it is --
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et er, hvor jævn den er
04:31
through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,
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gennem både gode og dårlige tider, igennem krigs- og fredstid,
04:34
recession, depression and boom time.
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recession, depression og boom tider.
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This is the result of faster computers
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Det er et resultat af hurtigere computere
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being used to build faster computers.
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som bliver brugt til at bygge hurtigere computere.
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It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.
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Det stopper ikke engang for vores største problemstillinger
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And also, even though it's plotted
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Også selvom det er plottet
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on a log curve on the left,
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på en logaritmisk kurve på venstre side
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it's curving upwards.
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så bøjer den opad.
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The rate at which the technology is getting faster
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Den hastighed hvormed teknologi bliver hurtigere
04:54
is itself getting faster.
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bliver også selv hurtigere.
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And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,
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Og på denne kurve, ridende på Moores Lov,
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are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies
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er et sæt ektraordinære kraftfulde teknologier
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available to all of us.
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som er til rådighed for os.
05:05
Cloud computing,
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Sky computing
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what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;
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hvad mine venner fra Autodesk kalder uendelige computering;
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sensors and networks; robotics;
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sensorer og netværker, robotteknologier
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3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute
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3D printere, hvilket er muligheden for at demokratisere og distribuere
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personalized production around the planet;
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personaliseret produktion over hele verden;
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synthetic biology;
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Syntetisk biologi;
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fuels, vaccines and foods;
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brændstoffer, vacciner og mad;
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digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.
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digital medicin; Nanomaterialer og Kunstig Intelligens
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I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy
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Jeg mener, hvor mange af jer så da vinderen af Jeopardy
05:28
by IBM's Watson?
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var IBM's Watson?
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I mean, that was epic.
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Jeg mener, det var virkelig episk.
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In fact, I scoured the headlines
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Rent faktisk, så gik jeg kiggede jeg på overskrifter
05:35
looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.
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hvor jeg ledte efter den bedste jeg kunne finde.
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And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."
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Og jeg elsker virkelig denne: "Watson udraderer menneskelige modstandere."
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Jeopardy's not an easy game.
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Jeopardy er ikke et let spil.
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It's about the nuance of human language.
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Det er en nuance af det menneskelige sprog.
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And imagine if you would
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Og forstil jer, hvis i kan,
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A.I.'s like this on the cloud
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Kunstige intelligenser som den i "skyen"
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available to every person with a cellphone.
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til rådighed for alle med en mobiltelefon.
05:54
Four years ago here at TED,
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For fire år siden her på TED,
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Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university
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Startede Ray Kurzweil og jeg et nyt universitet
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called Singularity University.
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som hedder Singularity Universitetet.
06:00
And we teach our students all of these technologies,
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Vi lærer vores studerende alle disse teknologier
06:03
and particularly how they can be used
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og hvordan de helt præcist kan blive brugt
06:05
to solve humanity's grand challenges.
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til at løse menneskets store udfordringer.
06:08
And every year we ask them
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Hvert år spørge vi dem
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to start a company or a product or a service
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til at starte et firma, et produkt eller en service
06:13
that can affect positively the lives of a billion people
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som positivt kan få indflydelse på en millard menneskers liv
06:16
within a decade.
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inden for et årti.
06:18
Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students
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Tænk på det, at rent faktisk, så er der bogstavlig talt, en gruppe studerende
06:21
can touch the lives of a billion people today.
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der kan røre en millard menneskers liv i dag.
06:24
30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.
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For 30 år siden ville det have lydt latterligt.
06:26
Today we can point at dozens of companies
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I dag kan vi pege på en række firmaer
06:29
that have done just that.
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der har gjort netop dette.
06:31
When I think about creating abundance,
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Når jeg tænker på at skabe overflod,
06:37
it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;
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så er det ikke for at skabe et liv af luksus for alle på planeten;
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it's about creating a life of possibility.
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det er om at skabe et liv med muligheder.
06:43
It is about taking that which was scarce
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Det om at tage det der er lidt af
06:46
and making it abundant.
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og skabe en overflod af det.
06:48
You see, scarcity is contextual,
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Ser i, knaphed er kontekstuel,
06:51
and technology is a resource-liberating force.
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og teknologi er en resource-befriende kræft.
06:56
Let me give you an example.
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Lad mig give jer et eksempel.
06:59
So this is a story of Napoleon III
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Der er denne historie om Napoleon III
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in the mid-1800s.
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i midten af 1800-tallet.
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He's the dude on the left.
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Han er fyren til venstre.
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He invited over to dinner
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Han inviterede
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the king of Siam.
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kongen af Siam over til middag.
07:10
All of Napoleon's troops
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Alle Napoleons tropper
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were fed with silver utensils,
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blev bespist af sølv bestik,
07:15
Napoleon himself with gold utensils.
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Napoleon selv, af guld bestik.
07:17
But the King of Siam,
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Men kongen af Siam,
07:19
he was fed with aluminum utensils.
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han blev bespist med aluminum bestik.
07:21
You see, aluminum
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Ser I, aluminum
07:23
was the most valuable metal on the planet,
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var det mest værdifulde metal på jorden,
07:26
worth more than gold and platinum.
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mere værd end guld og platinum.
07:29
It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument
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Det er grunden til at toppen af Washington Monumentet
07:32
is made of aluminum.
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er lavet af aluminum.
07:34
You see, even though aluminum
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Ser I, selv om aluminum
07:36
is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,
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er 8,3 procent af Jordens masse,
07:39
it doesn't come as a pure metal.
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så kommer det ikke som et rent metal.
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It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.
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Det hele er bundet af oxygen og selikater.
07:44
But then the technology of electrolysis came along
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Men så kom elektrolyse-teknologien på banen
07:47
and literally made aluminum so cheap
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og det gjorde bogstaveligt talt aluminum så billigt
07:50
that we use it with throw-away mentality.
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at vi bruger det med en smid-det-væk mentalitet.
07:53
So let's project this analogy going forward.
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Så lad os prøve at projectere denne analogi fremadrettet.
07:57
We think about energy scarcity.
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Vi tænker på energi knaphed.
07:59
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Mine damer og herrer,
08:01
we are on a planet
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vi er på en planet
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that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy
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som bliver badet med 5,000 gange mere energi
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than we use in a year.
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end vi bruger på et år.
08:09
16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface
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16 terawatt af energi rammer Jordens overfalde
08:11
every 88 minutes.
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hvert 88. minut.
08:15
It's not about being scarce,
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Det er ikke om knaphed,
08:17
it's about accessibility.
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det er omkring tilgængelighed.
08:19
And there's good news here.
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Og her er der nogle gode nyheder.
08:21
For the first time, this year
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For første gang nogensinde, dette år
08:23
the cost of solar-generated electricity
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er prisen for sol-genererede elektricitet
08:26
is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --
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50 procent af det som diesel-generet elektricitet i Indien koster -
08:30
8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.
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8,8 rupees mod 17 rupees.
08:33
The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.
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Prisen på solenergi er faldet 50 procent sidste år.
08:35
Last month, MIT put out a study
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sidste måned kom MIT ud med en undersøgelse
08:37
showing that by the end of this decade,
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som viste at mod slutningen af dette årti,
08:39
in the sunny parts of the United States,
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i solrige dele af USA,
08:41
solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour
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vil sol elektricitet koste seks cent per kilowatt time
08:43
compared to 15 cents
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i stedet for 15 cent.
08:45
as a national average.
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som et landsgennemsnit.
08:47
And if we have abundant energy,
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Og hvis vi har en overflod af energi,
08:50
we also have abundant water.
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så har vi også en overflod af vand.
08:53
Now we talk about water wars.
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Lige nu snakker man om vandkrige.
08:58
Do you remember
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Husker i
09:00
when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft
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da Carlsagan vendte Voyager sonden
09:02
back towards the Earth,
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tilbage mod Jorden,
09:04
in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?
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i 1990 lige efter den havde passeret Saturn?
09:06
He took a famous photo. What was it called?
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Han tog et berømt billede. Hvad blev det kaldt?
09:09
"A Pale Blue Dot."
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"En Bleg Blå Prik."
09:11
Because we live on a water planet.
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Fordi vi lever på en vand planet.
09:14
We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.
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Vi lever på en planet hvor 70 procent er dækket af vand.
09:17
Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,
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ja, 97,5 procent er saltvand,
09:19
two percent is ice,
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to procent er is,
09:21
and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,
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og vi kæmper over den sidste halve procent af vand på denne planet,
09:24
but here too there is hope.
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men selv her er der håb.
09:26
And there is technology coming online,
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Og der er en teknologi på vej online
09:29
not 10, 20 years from now,
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ikke om 10 eller 20 år fra nu,
09:31
right now.
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men lige nu.
09:33
There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
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Der er nanotekologi på vej, nanomaterialer.
09:36
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,
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Og den samtale jeg havde med Dean Kaman i morges,
09:39
one of the great DIY innovators,
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en af de store gør-det-selv innovatøre,
09:41
I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --
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vil jeg gerne dele med jer - han gav mig lov til at gøre det -
09:44
his technology called Slingshot
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hans teknologi bliver kaldt Slingshot
09:46
that many of you may have heard of,
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som mange af jer har hørt om,
09:48
it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.
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det er på størrelse med et mindre kollegie køleskab.
09:50
It's able to generate
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Det er muligt at producere
09:52
a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day
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tusinde liter af rent drikkevand om dagen
09:54
out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --
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ud fra hvilken som helst kilde - Saltvand, forurenet vand, latrine -
09:57
at less than two cents a liter.
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for mindre end to cent per liter.
10:02
The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed
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Formanden for Coca-Cola er lige gået med til
10:04
to do a major test
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at lave en stor test
10:06
of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.
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med hundrede af enheder som denne i udviklingslande.
10:09
And if that pans out,
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Og hvis det viser sig at virke,
10:11
which I have every confidence it will,
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hvilket jeg har den største grund til at tro,
10:13
Coca-Cola will deploy this globally
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så vil Coca-Cola implementere den globalt
10:15
to 206 countries
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i 206 lande
10:17
around the planet.
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rundt omkring i verden.
10:19
This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,
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Det er denne slags innovation, hjulpet på vej af den teknologi
10:22
that exists today.
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der eksisterer i dag.
10:26
And we've seen this in cellphones.
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Vi har set det med mobiltelefonen.
10:28
My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration
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Du godeste, vi rammer snart 70 procent dækningsgrad
10:30
of cellphones in the developing world
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af mobiltelefoner i udviklingslandene
10:32
by the end of 2013.
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mod slutningen af 2013.
10:34
Think about it,
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Tænk på det,
10:36
that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya
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at en Masai kriger med en mobiltelefon i midten af Kenya
10:39
has better mobile comm
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har bedre mobil kommunikation
10:41
than President Reagan did 25 years ago.
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end Præsident Reagan havde for 25 år siden.
10:44
And if they're on a smartphone on Google,
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Og hvis de på google med en smartphone
10:46
they've got access to more knowledge and information
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så har de mere viden og information tilrådighed
10:48
than President Clinton did 15 years ago.
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end Præsident Clinton havde for 15 år siden.
10:50
They're living in a world of information and communication abundance
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De lever i en verden af informations- og kommunikation overflod
10:53
that no one could have ever predicted.
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som ingen nogensinde kunne have forudsagt.
10:57
Better than that,
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Bedre end det,
10:59
the things that you and I
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de ting som du og jeg
11:01
spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --
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har brugt ti til hundrede af dollars på -
11:03
GPS, HD video and still images,
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GPS, HD video og billeder,
11:06
libraries of books and music,
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biblioteker af bøger og musik,
11:09
medical diagnostic technology --
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medicinal diagnosticering teknologi -
11:11
are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing
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er nu ved at dematerialisere og devaluere
11:14
into your cellphone.
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ind i din mobiltelefon.
11:19
Probably the best part of it
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Måske den bedste del af dette
11:21
is what's coming down the pike in health.
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er hvad der kommer til at ske med sundhed.
11:24
Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation
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Sidste måned havde jeg fornøjelsen af, at annoncere sammen med Qualcomm Foundation
11:28
something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.
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noget kaldet 10 million dollar Qualcomm Tricorder X præmien.
11:32
We're challenging teams around the world
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Vi udfordere hold rundt omkring i verden
11:34
to basically combine these technologies
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til dybest set at kombinere disse teknologier
11:36
into a mobile device
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ind i en mobil enhed
11:38
that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,
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som du kan tale til, på grund af den har kunstig intelligens,
11:40
you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.
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du kan hoste på den, du kan tage en finger blodprøve.
11:43
And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better
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Og for at vinde må den være bedre til at diagnosere dig
11:45
than a team of board-certified doctors.
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end et hold af godkendte læger.
11:49
So literally, imagine this device
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Så prøv at forstille jer denne enhed
11:52
in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,
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i midten af udviklingslandene hvor der ingen doktor er,
11:55
25 percent of the disease burden
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25 procent af sygdomsbyrden
11:57
and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.
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og 1,3 procent af sundhedsplejere.
12:00
When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus
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Når denne enhed sekvensere en RNA eller DNA virus
12:02
that it doesn't recognize,
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som den ikke kan genkende
12:04
it calls the CDC
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så ringer den til CDC
12:06
and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
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og forhindre en pandemi fra at ske til at starte med.
12:11
But here, here is the biggest force
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Men her, her er den største kraft
12:14
for bringing about a world of abundance.
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for at bringe en verden af overflod til eksistens.
12:16
I call it the rising billion.
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Jeg kalder det den rejsende milliard.
12:19
So the white lines here are population.
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De hvide linjer her er befolkningen.
12:22
We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.
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Vi har lige passeret syv milliard punktet her på Jorden.
12:25
And by the way,
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Og forresten,
12:27
the biggest protection against a population explosion
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den største beskyttelse mod en befolkningseksplosion
12:29
is making the world educated
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er ved at gøre verden uddannet
12:31
and healthy.
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og sund.
12:34
In 2010,
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i 2010,
12:36
we had just short of two billion people
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havde vi lige omkring to millarder mennesker
12:38
online, connected.
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online, forbundet.
12:40
By 2020,
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hen mod 2020,
12:42
that's going from two billion to five billion
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går det fra to millarder til fem milliarder
12:44
Internet users.
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internet brugere.
12:46
Three billion new minds
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Tre milliarder nye hjerner
12:48
who have never been heard from before
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som ingen har hørt fra før
12:50
are connecting to the global conversation.
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som forbinder sig til den globale samtale.
12:54
What will these people want?
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Hvad vil disse mennesker have?
12:56
What will they consume? What will they desire?
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Hvad vil de konsumere? Hvad ønsker de?
12:58
And rather than having economic shutdown,
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Og i stedet for et økonomisk nedbrud,
13:00
we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.
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så er vi lige ved at skulle have det største økonomisk indskud nogensinde.
13:03
These people represent
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Disse folk repræsentere
13:05
tens of trillions of dollars
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mange billioner af dollars
13:07
injected into the global economy.
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indskudt ind i den globale økonomi.
13:10
And they will get healthier
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Og de vil være sundere
13:12
by using the Tricorder,
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ved at bruge Tricorderen,
13:14
and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,
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og de vil være bedre uddannet ved brug af Khan Akademiet,
13:16
and by literally being able to use
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og bogstaveligt ved brug af
13:19
3D printing and infinite computing
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3D printere og uendelige computing
13:22
[become] more productive than ever before.
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blive mere produktive end nogensinde før.
13:25
So what could three billion rising,
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Så hvad kan tre milliarder
13:28
healthy, educated, productive members of humanity
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sunde, uddannede og produktive medlemmer af menneskeheden
13:31
bring to us?
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bringe os?
13:33
How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.
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Hvad med et sæt af stemmer som aldrig er hørt før.
13:36
What about giving the oppressed,
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Hvad med at give de undertrykte,
13:38
wherever they might be,
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hvor end de måtte være,
13:40
the voice to be heard and the voice to act
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stemmen til at blive hørt og stemmen til at gøre noget
13:42
for the first time ever?
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for første gang nogensinde?
13:45
What will these three billion people bring?
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Hvad vil disse tre millarder bringe?
13:48
What about contributions we can't even predict?
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Hvad med bidrag vi overhovedet ikke kan forstille os?
13:51
The one thing I've learned at the X Prize
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Den ting jeg lærte om ved X Prize
13:53
is that small teams
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er at små hold,
13:55
driven by their passion with a clear focus
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drevet af deres passion med et klart fokus,
13:58
can do extraordinary things,
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kan gøre ekstraordinære ting,
14:00
things that large corporations and governments
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ting som store firmaer og regeringer
14:02
could only do in the past.
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kun har kunne gøre i fortiden.
14:05
Let me share and close with a story
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Lad mig dele og lukke en historie
14:07
that really got me excited.
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som virkelige gjorde mig begejstret.
14:10
There is a program that some of you might have heard of.
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Der er et program som nogle af jer måske har hørt om.
14:12
It's a game called Foldit.
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Det er et spil kaldet Foldit.
14:14
It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.
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Det udkom fra Universitet af Washington i Seattle.
14:18
And this is a game
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Det er et spil
14:20
where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids
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hvor individualer faktisk kan tage en sekvens af aminosyrer
14:24
and figure out how the protein is going to fold.
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og finde ud af hvordan proteinet kommer til at folde sig.
14:28
And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.
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Hvordan det folder sig kommer til at diktere dets struktur og dens funktionalitet.
14:30
And it's very important for research in medicine.
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Og det er meget vigtig for medicinal forskning.
14:33
And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
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Op til nu har det været et supercomputer problem.
14:36
And this game has been played
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Og dette spil er blevet spillet
14:38
by university professors and so forth.
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af universitetsprofessorer og lignende.
14:40
And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people
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3000
Og der er bogstaveligt talt, hundrede af tusinde af folk
14:43
came online and started playing it.
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der kom online og spillede det.
14:45
And it showed that, in fact, today,
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Og det viste sig faktisk, i dag,
14:47
the human pattern recognition machinery
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at menneskets mønstergenkendende maskineri
14:49
is better at folding proteins than the best computers.
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er bedre til at folde proteiner end den bedste computer.
14:52
And when these individuals went and looked
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og når man disse folk gik igennem og kiggede
14:54
at who was the best protein folder in the world,
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på hvem der var den bedste proteinfolder i verden,
14:57
it wasn't an MIT professor,
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så var det ikke en MIT professor,
14:59
it wasn't a CalTech student,
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det var ikke en CalTech studerende,
15:01
it was a person from England, from Manchester,
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det var en person fra Manchester, England,
15:04
a woman who, during the day,
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en kvinde, som i løbet af dagen,
15:08
was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic
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var en udøvende assistent på en rehabilitationsklinik
15:11
and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
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og, om natten, var verdens bedste proteinfolder.
15:16
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Mine damer og herrer,
15:18
what gives me tremendous confidence
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Det der giver mig stor tiltro
15:20
in the future
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til fremtiden
15:24
is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals
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er vi hver især, som individualer, er i stand til
15:28
to take on the grand challenges of this planet.
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at tage de store udfordinger op på denne planet.
15:31
We have the tools with this exponential technology.
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Vi har redskaberne ved eksponentiel teknologi.
15:34
We have the passion of the DIY innovator.
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Vi har passionen fra gør-det-selv innovatører.
15:37
We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.
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Vi har kapitalen af tekno-filantropen.
15:40
And we have three billion new minds
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Og vi har tre milliarder nye hjerner
15:42
coming online to work with us
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der kommer online for at arbejde sammen med os
15:44
to solve the grand challenges,
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for at løse de store udfordinger,
15:46
to do that which we must do.
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til at gøre hvad vi skal gøre.
15:50
We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
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Vi har nogle helt ekstraordinære årtier forude.
15:52
Thank you.
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Tak.
15:54
(Applause)
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(klapsalver)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com