TEDGlobal 2010
Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing
Filmed:
Readability: 4.5
1,583,922 views
Physics and marketing don't seem to have much in common, but Dan Cobley is passionate about both. He brings these unlikely bedfellows together using Newton's second law, Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, the scientific method and the second law of thermodynamics to explain the fundamental theories of branding.
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whiz
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need. Full bio
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So I work in marketing, which I love,
0
1000
2000
00:18
but my first passion was physics,
1
3000
3000
00:21
a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher,
2
6000
3000
00:24
when I had a little less gray hair.
3
9000
3000
00:27
So he taught me
4
12000
2000
00:29
that physics is cool
5
14000
2000
00:31
because it teaches us so much about the world around us.
6
16000
2000
00:33
And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you
7
18000
3000
00:36
that physics can teach us something about marketing.
8
21000
3000
00:39
So quick show of hands --
9
24000
2000
00:41
who studied some marketing in university?
10
26000
2000
00:43
Who studied some physics in university?
11
28000
2000
00:45
Pretty good. And at school?
12
30000
2000
00:47
Okay, lots of you.
13
32000
2000
00:49
So, hopefully this will bring back some happy,
14
34000
2000
00:51
or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.
15
36000
3000
00:54
So, physics and marketing.
16
39000
3000
00:58
We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law:
17
43000
2000
01:00
"The force equals mass times acceleration."
18
45000
3000
01:03
This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines
19
48000
2000
01:05
should have studied a bit more carefully
20
50000
3000
01:08
before they ran this campaign.
21
53000
2000
01:10
(Laughter)
22
55000
3000
01:13
But if we rearrange this formula quickly,
23
58000
3000
01:16
we can get to acceleration equals force over mass,
24
61000
3000
01:19
which means
25
64000
2000
01:21
that for a larger particle -- a larger mass --
26
66000
3000
01:24
it requires more force to change its direction.
27
69000
3000
01:28
It's the same with brands:
28
73000
2000
01:30
the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has,
29
75000
3000
01:33
the more force is needed to change its positioning.
30
78000
3000
01:36
And that's one of the reasons why
31
81000
2000
01:38
Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture
32
83000
3000
01:41
rather than try to persuade the world
33
86000
2000
01:43
that Andersen's could stand for something
34
88000
2000
01:45
other than accountancy.
35
90000
2000
01:47
It explains why Hoover
36
92000
2000
01:49
found it very difficult to persuade the world
37
94000
2000
01:51
that it was more than vacuum cleaners,
38
96000
2000
01:53
and why companies like Unilever and P&G
39
98000
3000
01:56
keep brands separate,
40
101000
2000
01:58
like Ariel and Pringles and Dove
41
103000
3000
02:01
rather than having one giant parent brand.
42
106000
3000
02:05
So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object
43
110000
3000
02:08
the more force is needed
44
113000
2000
02:10
to change its direction.
45
115000
2000
02:12
The marketing is, the bigger a brand,
46
117000
2000
02:14
the more difficult it is to reposition it.
47
119000
2000
02:16
So think about a portfolio of brands
48
121000
2000
02:18
or maybe new brands for new ventures.
49
123000
3000
02:21
Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?
50
126000
3000
02:24
Getting a little more technical now.
51
129000
2000
02:26
So this says that
52
131000
2000
02:28
it's impossible, by definition,
53
133000
2000
02:30
to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position --
54
135000
2000
02:32
and the momentum of a particle,
55
137000
2000
02:34
because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.
56
139000
3000
02:37
So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle
57
142000
2000
02:39
and you shine a light on it,
58
144000
2000
02:41
then the photon of light has momentum,
59
146000
3000
02:44
which knocks the particle,
60
149000
3000
02:47
so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.
61
152000
3000
02:50
By measuring it,
62
155000
2000
02:52
the act of measurement changes it.
63
157000
2000
02:54
The act of observation changes it.
64
159000
2000
02:56
It's the same in marketing.
65
161000
2000
02:58
So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.
66
163000
3000
03:01
Think about the group of moms
67
166000
3000
03:04
who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group,
68
169000
3000
03:07
and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.
69
172000
3000
03:10
And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year.
70
175000
3000
03:13
Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets,
71
178000
3000
03:16
who stuff their trolleys
72
181000
2000
03:18
full of fresh green vegetables and fruit,
73
183000
2000
03:20
but don't shop like that any other day.
74
185000
3000
03:23
And if you think about the number of people
75
188000
2000
03:25
who claim in surveys
76
190000
2000
03:27
to regularly look for porn on the Web,
77
192000
2000
03:29
it's very few.
78
194000
2000
03:31
Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category.
79
196000
3000
03:35
So luckily, the science --
80
200000
2000
03:37
no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.
81
202000
3000
03:40
Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking,
82
205000
3000
03:43
more digital media consumption,
83
208000
2000
03:45
you can measure more what consumers actually do,
84
210000
3000
03:48
rather than what they say they do.
85
213000
2000
03:50
So the physics is
86
215000
2000
03:52
you can never accurately and exactly
87
217000
2000
03:54
measure a particle,
88
219000
2000
03:56
because the observation changes it.
89
221000
2000
03:58
The marketing is -- the message for marketing is --
90
223000
3000
04:01
that try to measure what consumers actually do,
91
226000
3000
04:04
rather than what they say they'll do
92
229000
2000
04:06
or anticipate they'll do.
93
231000
3000
04:09
So next, the scientific method --
94
234000
3000
04:12
an axiom of physics, of all science --
95
237000
2000
04:14
says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation,
96
239000
2000
04:16
you can only disprove it.
97
241000
2000
04:18
What this means is you can gather more and more data
98
243000
3000
04:21
around a hypothesis or a positioning,
99
246000
2000
04:23
and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.
100
248000
3000
04:26
And only one contrary data point
101
251000
2000
04:28
can blow your theory out of the water.
102
253000
3000
04:31
So if we take an example --
103
256000
2000
04:33
Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory
104
258000
3000
04:36
that the planets would rotate around the Earth.
105
261000
3000
04:39
It only took one robust observation from Copernicus
106
264000
3000
04:42
to blow that idea out of the water.
107
267000
3000
04:45
And there are parallels for marketing --
108
270000
2000
04:47
you can invest for a long time in a brand,
109
272000
3000
04:50
but a single contrary observation of that positioning
110
275000
2000
04:52
will destroy consumers' belief.
111
277000
3000
04:55
Take BP --
112
280000
2000
04:57
they spent millions of pounds over many years
113
282000
2000
04:59
building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand,
114
284000
3000
05:02
but then one little accident.
115
287000
3000
05:05
Think about Toyota.
116
290000
2000
05:07
It was, for a long time, revered
117
292000
2000
05:09
as the most reliable of cars,
118
294000
2000
05:11
and then they had the big recall incident.
119
296000
3000
05:14
And Tiger Woods, for a long time,
120
299000
2000
05:16
the perfect brand ambassador.
121
301000
2000
05:18
Well, you know the story.
122
303000
2000
05:20
(Laughter)
123
305000
6000
05:26
So the physics is
124
311000
2000
05:28
that you cannot prove a hypothesis,
125
313000
2000
05:30
but it's easy to disprove it --
126
315000
2000
05:32
any hypothesis is shaky.
127
317000
2000
05:34
And the marketing is
128
319000
2000
05:36
that not matter how much you've invested in your brand,
129
321000
3000
05:39
one bad week can undermine decades of good work.
130
324000
3000
05:42
So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups
131
327000
2000
05:44
that can undermine your brand.
132
329000
2000
05:47
And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy --
133
332000
3000
05:50
the second law of thermodynamics.
134
335000
2000
05:52
This says that entropy,
135
337000
2000
05:54
which is a measure of the disorder of a system,
136
339000
2000
05:56
will always increase.
137
341000
2000
05:58
The same is true of marketing.
138
343000
2000
06:00
If we go back 20 years,
139
345000
2000
06:02
the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager
140
347000
3000
06:05
could pretty much define a brand.
141
350000
3000
06:08
But where we are today, things have changed.
142
353000
3000
06:11
You can get a strong brand image
143
356000
2000
06:13
or a message
144
358000
2000
06:15
and put it out there like the Conservative Party did
145
360000
2000
06:17
earlier this year with their election poster.
146
362000
3000
06:20
But then you lose control of it.
147
365000
3000
06:23
With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools
148
368000
3000
06:26
that are available now to every consumer,
149
371000
3000
06:29
it's impossible to control where it goes.
150
374000
3000
06:32
Your brand starts being dispersed,
151
377000
2000
06:34
(Laughter)
152
379000
2000
06:36
it gets more chaotic.
153
381000
2000
06:38
(Laughter)
154
383000
2000
06:40
It's out of your control.
155
385000
2000
06:42
(Laughter)
156
387000
5000
06:47
I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job.
157
392000
2000
06:49
But while this may be unsettling for marketers,
158
394000
2000
06:51
it's actually a good thing.
159
396000
2000
06:53
This distribution of brand energy
160
398000
2000
06:55
gets your brand closer to the people,
161
400000
2000
06:57
more in with the people.
162
402000
2000
06:59
It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force,
163
404000
3000
07:02
which is ultimately good for your brand.
164
407000
3000
07:05
So, the lesson from physics is
165
410000
2000
07:07
that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.
166
412000
3000
07:10
The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed.
167
415000
3000
07:13
You can't fight it, so embrace it
168
418000
2000
07:15
and find a way to work with it.
169
420000
3000
07:18
So to close,
170
423000
2000
07:20
my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me
171
425000
2000
07:22
that physics is cool,
172
427000
2000
07:24
and hopefully, I've convinced you
173
429000
2000
07:26
that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.
174
431000
3000
07:29
Thank you.
175
434000
2000
07:31
(Applause)
176
436000
2000
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whizDan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need.
Why you should listen
In 2006, Dan Cobley was appointed director of marketing at Google for central and northern Europe. He shows customers the best way to use Google products to find the information and services they’re searching for, while working with businesses to demonstrate how a search engine can help them find interested customers.
Before Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.
More profile about the speakerBefore Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.
Dan Cobley | Speaker | TED.com