TEDGlobal 2012
Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?
Keith Chen: Hizkuntzak izan al dezake eraginik dirua aurrezteko gaitasunean?
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,880,497 views
Zer ikas dezakete ekonomistek linguistengandik? Portaerak aztertzen dituen ekonomista da Keith Chen, eta ikerketa eredu oso interesgarri bat aurkezten digu: etorkizunaren kontzepturik gabeko hizkuntzek --"It rain tomorrow" ["Bihar euria egin"] esatea "It will rain tomorrow" ["Bihar euria egingo du"] esan ordez -- lotura sendoa dutela aurrezte-tasekin. Irakurri gehiago Chen-en ikerketari buruz »
Keith Chen - Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future. Full bio
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
The global economic financial crisis has reignited public interest
0
500
4500
Ekonomia krisi globalak
publikoaren interesa berpiztu du
publikoaren interesa berpiztu du
00:20
in something that's actually one of the oldest questions in economics,
1
5000
3416
ekonomi zientzian zaharrenetarikoa den
mintzagai batengan,
mintzagai batengan,
00:24
dating back to at least before Adam Smith.
2
8416
2684
gutxienez Adam Smithen aurretikoa dena.
00:27
And that is, why is it that countries with seemingly similar economies and institutions
3
11100
5484
Zergatik dituzte, itxuraz antzeko ekonomia
eta erakundeak dituzten herrialdeek
eta erakundeak dituzten herrialdeek
00:32
can display radically different savings behavior?
4
16584
3249
aurrezteko portaera hain desberdinak?
00:35
Now, many brilliant economists have spent their entire lives working on this question,
5
19833
4534
Ekonomista bikain askok
bizi osoa eman dute honi erantzun nahian,
bizi osoa eman dute honi erantzun nahian,
00:40
and as a field we've made a tremendous amount of headway
6
24367
3417
eta guztien artean asko aurreratzea
lortu dugu
lortu dugu
00:43
and we understand a lot about this.
7
27784
2433
eta asko ulertzera iritsi gara.
00:46
What I'm here to talk with you about today is an intriguing new hypothesis
8
30217
3634
Gaur azaldu nahi dudana hipotesi
berri zirraragarri bat da
berri zirraragarri bat da
00:49
and some surprisingly powerful new findings that I've been working on
9
33851
4032
baita zenbait aurkikuntza harrigarri
eta garrantzitsu ere, esaterako
eta garrantzitsu ere, esaterako
00:53
about the link between the structure of the language you speak
10
37883
4706
hitz egiten dugun hizkuntzaren egiturak
zer nolako lotura duen
zer nolako lotura duen
00:58
and how you find yourself with the propensity to save.
11
42604
4396
bakoitzak aurrezteko duen jokabidearekin.
01:02
Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates, a little bit about language,
12
47000
3067
Laburrean aurrezte-tasei buruz eta
hizkuntzari buruz hitz egin,
hizkuntzari buruz hitz egin,
01:05
and then I'll draw that connection.
13
50067
2350
eta ondoren, lotura azalduko dizuet.
01:08
Let's start by thinking about the member countries of the OECD,
14
52417
4567
Has gaitezen ELGA-ko
kide diren herrialdeekin,
kide diren herrialdeekin,
01:12
or the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.
15
56984
3301
Ekonomia Lankidetza eta
Garapenerako Antolakundea.
Garapenerako Antolakundea.
01:16
OECD countries, by and large, you should think about these
16
60285
3899
ELGA-ko herrialdeak, orokorrean, munduko
01:20
as the richest, most industrialized countries in the world.
17
64184
2638
aberatsenak eta industrializatuenak dira.
01:22
And by joining the OECD, they were affirming a common commitment
18
66822
4050
Eta ELGAra batzean,
konpromezua hartzen dute
konpromezua hartzen dute
01:26
to democracy, open markets and free trade.
19
70872
3438
demokraziaren, merkatu irekien
eta merkataritza askearen alde.
eta merkataritza askearen alde.
01:30
Despite all of these similarities, we see huge differences in savings behavior.
20
74310
4685
Antzekotasun horiek izan arren,
aurrezteko portaeretan alde handiak daude.
aurrezteko portaeretan alde handiak daude.
01:34
So all the way over on the left of this graph,
21
78995
2450
Hala, grafiko honen ezkerreko aldean,
01:37
what you see is many OECD countries saving over a quarter of their GDP every year,
22
81445
4734
urtean BPG-aren laurdena baino gehiago
aurrezten duten ELGA herrialdeak daude,
aurrezten duten ELGA herrialdeak daude,
01:42
and some OECD countries saving over a third of their GDP per year.
23
86179
4681
eta urtean BPG-aren herena baino gehiago
aurrezten duten zenbait.
aurrezten duten zenbait.
01:46
Holding down the right flank of the OECD, all the way on the other side, is Greece.
24
90860
4768
ELGAren eskuin muturrean berriz,
grafikoaren beste aldean, Grezia dago.
grafikoaren beste aldean, Grezia dago.
01:51
And what you can see is that over the last 25 years,
25
95628
3416
Agerian geratzen da azken 25 urteetan
Greziak ia ez duela lortu bere BPG-aren
ehuneko 10 baino gehiago aurreztea.
ehuneko 10 baino gehiago aurreztea.
01:54
Greece has barely managed to save more than 10 percent of their GDP.
26
99044
3900
01:58
It should be noted, of course, that the United States and the U.K. are the next in line.
27
102944
6874
Nabarmendu behar dugu, bestalde,
AEB eta EB ondoan dituela.
AEB eta EB ondoan dituela.
02:05
Now that we see these huge differences in savings rates,
28
109818
2578
Aurrezte-tasetan halako alde handiak
ikusi ondoren,
ikusi ondoren,
02:08
how is it possible that language might have something to do with these differences?
29
112396
3666
nola izan daiteke hizkuntzak
alde horiengan eraginik izatea?
alde horiengan eraginik izatea?
02:11
Let me tell you a little bit about how languages fundamentally differ.
30
116062
3049
Utzidazue azaltzen hizkuntzek
zer desberdintasun dituzten.
zer desberdintasun dituzten.
02:15
Linguists and cognitive scientists have been exploring this question for many years now.
31
119111
5567
Linguistek eta kognizio zientzilariek
urte askotan ikertu dute gai hau.
urte askotan ikertu dute gai hau.
02:20
And then I'll draw the connection between these two behaviors.
32
124678
4610
Gero, bi portaera horien arteko lotura
azalduko dizuet.
azalduko dizuet.
02:25
Many of you have probably already noticed that I'm Chinese.
33
129288
2608
Zuetako asko ohartuko zineten
txinatarra naizela.
txinatarra naizela.
02:27
I grew up in the Midwest of the United States.
34
131896
2965
AEBen erdi-mendebaldean hazi nintzen.
02:30
And something I realized quite early on
35
134861
2451
Eta nahiko goiz ohartu nintzen
02:33
was that the Chinese language forced me to speak about and --
36
137312
3591
txinatar hizkuntzak oso modu desberdinean
hitz egitera --
hitz egitera --
02:36
in fact, more fundamentally than that --
37
140903
2891
eta hori baino garrantzitsuago --
02:39
ever so slightly forced me to think about family in very different ways.
38
143794
4090
familiari buruz modu desberdinean
pentsatzera behartu ninduela.
pentsatzera behartu ninduela.
02:43
Now, how might that be? Let me give you an example.
39
147884
2077
Nola izan daiteke hori?
Hona adibide bat.
Hona adibide bat.
02:45
Suppose I were talking with you and I was introducing you to my uncle.
40
149961
4402
Demagun zuekin hitz egiten ari naizela,
eta nire osaba aurkeztu nahi dizuedala.
eta nire osaba aurkeztu nahi dizuedala.
02:50
You understood exactly what I just said in English.
41
154363
2866
Ingelesez esan dudana
ongi ulertu duzue.
ongi ulertu duzue.
02:53
If we were speaking Mandarin Chinese with each other, though,
42
157229
2950
Txinatar Mandarina hitz egiten
ariko bagina, ordea,
ariko bagina, ordea,
02:56
I wouldn't have that luxury.
43
160179
2066
ez litzateke hain erraza izango.
02:58
I wouldn't have been able to convey so little information.
44
162245
2833
Ezin izango nuke
hain informazio gutxi eman.
hain informazio gutxi eman.
03:00
What my language would have forced me to do,
45
165078
2384
Nire hizkuntzak behartu egingo ninduen
03:03
instead of just telling you, "This is my uncle,"
46
167462
2000
"Hau nire osaba da" esan ordez
03:05
is to tell you a tremendous amount of additional information.
47
169462
3282
beste informazio gehigarri andana ematera.
03:08
My language would force me to tell you
48
172744
1819
Nire hizkuntzak
behartuko ninduen
behartuko ninduen
03:10
whether or not this was an uncle on my mother's side or my father's side,
49
174563
3416
nire amaren aldeko edo
aitaren aldeko osaba den,
aitaren aldeko osaba den,
03:13
whether this was an uncle by marriage or by birth,
50
177979
3084
ezkontzazko edo jaiotzezko osaba den,
03:16
and if this man was my father's brother,
51
181063
2232
eta nire aitaren anaia bada,
03:19
whether he was older than or younger than my father.
52
183295
2784
nire aita baino zaharragoa
edo gazteagoa den esatera.
edo gazteagoa den esatera.
03:21
All of this information is obligatory. Chinese doesn't let me ignore it.
53
186079
4133
Informazio guzti hori beharrezkoa da.
Txinatar hizkuntzan ezin da ez esan.
Txinatar hizkuntzan ezin da ez esan.
03:26
And in fact, if I want to speak correctly,
54
190212
2166
Eta, hain zuzen,
ongi hitz egin nahiko banu,
ongi hitz egin nahiko banu,
03:28
Chinese forces me to constantly think about it.
55
192378
3117
Txinatar hizkuntzak etengabe
hori kontuan hartzera behartzen nau.
hori kontuan hartzera behartzen nau.
03:31
Now, that fascinated me endlessly as a child,
56
195495
3949
Hori liluragarria iruditzen zitzaidan
haurtzaroan
haurtzaroan
03:35
but what fascinates me even more today as an economist
57
199444
3235
baina orain ekonomista gisa
are eta gehiago liluratzen nauena
are eta gehiago liluratzen nauena
03:38
is that some of these same differences carry through to how languages speak about time.
58
202679
5301
desberdintasunetako batzuk denborari buruz
hitz egitean ere ematen direla da.
hitz egitean ere ematen direla da.
03:43
So for example, if I'm speaking in English, I have to speak grammatically differently
59
207980
4249
Adibidez, ingelesez ari banaiz,
gramatika desberdina erabili behar dut
gramatika desberdina erabili behar dut
03:48
if I'm talking about past rain, "It rained yesterday,"
60
212229
2733
iraganeko euriari buruz,
"Atzo euria egin zuen,"
"Atzo euria egin zuen,"
egungo euriari buruz,
"orain euria ari du,"
"orain euria ari du,"
03:50
current rain, "It is raining now,"
61
214962
2232
edo etorkizunari buruz,
"Bihar euria egingo du" jarduteko.
"Bihar euria egingo du" jarduteko.
03:53
or future rain, "It will rain tomorrow."
62
217194
2434
03:55
Notice that English requires a lot more information with respect to the timing of events.
63
219628
4827
Ingelesak informazio asko behar du
denborari buruzko informazioa emateko.
denborari buruzko informazioa emateko.
Zergatik?
Denbora kontuan izan behar dudalako
Denbora kontuan izan behar dudalako
04:00
Why? Because I have to consider that
64
224455
2007
04:02
and I have to modify what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."
65
226462
4783
eta esaten dudana aldatu behar dudalako,
"euria egingo du," edo "euria ari du."
"euria egingo du," edo "euria ari du."
04:07
It's simply not permissible in English to say, "It rain tomorrow."
66
231245
4116
Ezinezkoa da ingelesez, besterik gabe,
"Bihar euria ari" esatea.
"Bihar euria ari" esatea.
04:11
In contrast to that, that's almost exactly what you would say in Chinese.
67
235361
4184
Bestalde, ia horixe
egiten dugu txinatarrez.
egiten dugu txinatarrez.
04:15
A Chinese speaker can basically say something
68
239545
2316
Txinatarrez hitz egiten duen
batek esan dezake
batek esan dezake
04:17
that sounds very strange to an English speaker's ears.
69
241861
2584
ingelesez egiten duenarentzat
oso arraroa litzatekeena.
oso arraroa litzatekeena.
04:20
They can say, "Yesterday it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow it rain."
70
244445
4567
Esan dezake "Atzo euria ari,"
"Gaur euria ari," "Bihar euria ari."
"Gaur euria ari," "Bihar euria ari."
04:24
In some deep sense, Chinese doesn't divide up the time spectrum
71
249012
3863
Funtsean,
txinatarrak ez du denbora zatitzen
txinatarrak ez du denbora zatitzen
04:28
in the same way that English forces us to constantly do in order to speak correctly.
72
252875
6433
ingelesez zuzen hitz egin nahi badugu
eten gabe egiten dugun modu berean.
eten gabe egiten dugun modu berean.
04:35
Is this difference in languages
73
259308
1584
Hizkuntzen arteko alde hori
04:36
only between very, very distantly related languages, like English and Chinese?
74
260892
4195
oso urrun dauen hizkuntzen artean
soilik ematen al da?
soilik ematen al da?
04:40
Actually, no.
75
265087
958
Ez.
04:41
So many of you know, in this room, that English is a Germanic language.
76
266045
3733
Zuetako hainbatek jakingo duzue
ingelesa hizkuntza germanikoa dela.
ingelesa hizkuntza germanikoa dela.
04:45
What you may not have realized is that English is actually an outlier.
77
269778
3915
Baina agian ez dakizue
ingelesea salbuespen bat dela.
ingelesea salbuespen bat dela.
04:49
It is the only Germanic language that requires this.
78
273693
3250
Hori egitera behartzen gaituen
hizkuntza germaniko bakarra da.
hizkuntza germaniko bakarra da.
04:52
For example, most other Germanic language speakers
79
276943
2884
Adibidez, hizkuntza germanikoen
hiztun gehienak
hiztun gehienak
04:55
feel completely comfortable talking about rain tomorrow
80
279827
3017
eroso sentitzen dira biharko euriari
buruz hitz egiteko
buruz hitz egiteko
04:58
by saying, "Morgen regnet es,"
81
282844
1966
"Morgen regnet es," esanda.
05:00
quite literally to an English ear, "It rain tomorrow."
82
284810
3900
Ingeles batentzat, literalki,
"Atzo euria ari."
"Atzo euria ari."
05:04
This led me, as a behavioral economist, to an intriguing hypothesis.
83
288710
5067
Honek portaeraren ekonomia ikerlari legez,
hipotesi harrigarri batera eraman ninduen.
hipotesi harrigarri batera eraman ninduen.
05:09
Could how you speak about time, could how your language forces you to think about time,
84
293777
4249
Denborari buruz hitz egiteko
eta pentsatzeko dugun moduak
eta pentsatzeko dugun moduak
05:13
affect your propensity to behave across time?
85
298026
3751
izan ote dezake eraginik
denboran zehar dugun portaeran?
denboran zehar dugun portaeran?
05:17
You speak English, a futured language.
86
301777
2900
Zuek ingelesez hitz egiten duzue,
etorkizuna duen hizkuntza.
etorkizuna duen hizkuntza.
05:20
And what that means is that every time you discuss the future,
87
304677
3167
Horrek esan nahi du,
etorkizunari buruz ari zaretenean,
etorkizunari buruz ari zaretenean,
edo etorkizuneko
gauzak aipatzean,
gauzak aipatzean,
05:23
or any kind of a future event,
88
307844
1567
05:25
grammatically you're forced to cleave that from the present
89
309411
3399
gramatikoki orainetik bereiztera
behartuta zaudetela,
behartuta zaudetela,
05:28
and treat it as if it's something viscerally different.
90
312810
2633
guztiz bestelako
zerbait balitz bezala tratatzera.
zerbait balitz bezala tratatzera.
05:31
Now suppose that that visceral difference
91
315443
2500
Demagun funtsezko desberdintasun horrek
05:33
makes you subtly dissociate the future from the present every time you speak.
92
317943
4200
hitz egiten duzun bakoitzean etorkizuna
orainetik bereiztera behartzen zaituela.
orainetik bereiztera behartzen zaituela.
05:38
If that's true and it makes the future feel
93
322143
1913
Hori egia bada, eta,
etorkizuna
etorkizuna
orainetik hurrun dagoela
eta desberdina dela sentiarazten badizu,
eta desberdina dela sentiarazten badizu,
05:39
like something more distant and more different from the present,
94
324056
2983
05:42
that's going to make it harder to save.
95
327039
2654
zailagoa izango da zuretzat aurreztea.
05:45
If, on the other hand, you speak a futureless language,
96
329693
2551
Etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntzan
hitz egiten baduzu,
hitz egiten baduzu,
05:48
the present and the future, you speak about them identically.
97
332244
3383
berdin hitz egingo duzu
orainaz eta etorkizunaz.
orainaz eta etorkizunaz.
05:51
If that subtly nudges you to feel about them identically,
98
335627
2983
Eta horrek biak berdin bezala sentzitzera
eramaten bazaitu,
eramaten bazaitu,
05:54
that's going to make it easier to save.
99
338610
2384
errazagoa izango da zuretzat aurreztea.
05:56
Now this is a fanciful theory.
100
340994
2550
Hau alegiazko teoria bat da.
05:59
I'm a professor, I get paid to have fanciful theories.
101
343544
2900
Irakaslea naiz, alegiazko teoriak
izateko ordaintzen naute.
izateko ordaintzen naute.
06:02
But how would you actually go about testing such a theory?
102
346444
4234
Baina nola frogatu genezake
halako teoria bat?
halako teoria bat?
06:06
Well, what I did with that was to access the linguistics literature.
103
350678
4066
Horretarako,
linguistikako liburuetara jo nuen.
linguistikako liburuetara jo nuen.
06:10
And interestingly enough, there are pockets of futureless language speakers
104
354744
4383
Eta interesgarria da badirela etorkizunik
gabeko zenbait hizkuntza,
gabeko zenbait hizkuntza,
06:15
situated all over the world.
105
359127
1933
munduan zehar sakabanatuak.
06:16
This is a pocket of futureless language speakers in Northern Europe.
106
361060
3366
Hau Europa iparraldeko etorkizunik gabeko
hizkuntza multzo bat da.
hizkuntza multzo bat da.
06:20
Interestingly enough, when you start to crank the data,
107
364426
2901
Interesgarria da,
datuak jorratzen hastean,
datuak jorratzen hastean,
06:23
these pockets of futureless language speakers all around the world
108
367327
3233
munduan zehar sakabanatuta dauden
etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza horiek
etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza horiek
06:26
turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's best savers.
109
370560
3934
munduko aurrezle onenak direla.
06:30
Just to give you a hint of that,
110
374494
2166
Horren adibidetxo bat emateko,
06:32
let's look back at that OECD graph that we were talking about.
111
376660
2750
ikus dezagun berriro ELGA
herrialdeen grafikoa.
herrialdeen grafikoa.
06:35
What you see is that these bars are systematically taller
112
379410
3384
Ikus dezakezue barra hauek
altuagoak direla
altuagoak direla
06:38
and systematically shifted to the left
113
382794
2132
eta ezkerrera mugituak daudela,
06:40
compared to these bars which are the members of the OECD that speak futured languages.
114
384926
4518
ELGAko etorkizuna duten hizkuntzak
dituzten herrialdeen barrekin alderatuta.
dituzten herrialdeen barrekin alderatuta.
06:45
What is the average difference here?
115
389444
1463
Zein da batez besteko aldea?
06:46
Five percentage points of your GDP saved per year.
116
390907
3286
BPG-aren ehuneko bost puntuko
aurrezpena urtean.
aurrezpena urtean.
06:50
Over 25 years that has huge long-run effects on the wealth of your nation.
117
394193
4734
25 urtean, horrek sekulako eragina du
herrialdeen aberastasunean.
herrialdeen aberastasunean.
06:54
Now while these findings are suggestive,
118
398927
2700
Aurkikuntza hauek
adierazgarriak diren arren,
adierazgarriak diren arren,
herrialdeek desberdintzen dituzten
ezaugarri asko izan ditzakete
ezaugarri asko izan ditzakete
06:57
countries can be different in so many different ways
119
401627
2066
06:59
that it's very, very difficult sometimes to account for all of these possible differences.
120
403693
4384
zaila dela batzuetan desberdintasun
horiek guztiak kontuan hartzea.
horiek guztiak kontuan hartzea.
07:03
What I'm going to show you, though, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,
121
408077
4032
Dena den, erakutsiko dizuedana,
azken urtean landu dudan zerbait da.
azken urtean landu dudan zerbait da.
07:08
which is trying to gather all of the largest datasets
122
412109
2323
Ekonomistok eskura ditugun datu
07:10
that we have access to as economists,
123
414432
2292
multzo handienak bildu eta
07:12
and I'm going to try and strip away all of those possible differences,
124
416724
3382
desberdintasun posible guztiak
garbitzen saiatuko naiz
garbitzen saiatuko naiz
07:16
hoping to get this relationship to break.
125
420106
2654
erlazio hau hausteko asmoz.
07:18
And just in summary, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break.
126
422760
5031
Eta, laburbilduz, gogor saiatu arren
ez dut haustea lortu.
ez dut haustea lortu.
07:23
Let me show you how far you can do that.
127
427791
1765
Ikus dezagun noraino
eraman daitekeen.
eraman daitekeen.
07:25
One way to imagine that is I gather large datasets from around the world.
128
429556
4633
Irudikatzeko modu bat hau da:
Munduko datu multzoak bildu ditut.
Munduko datu multzoak bildu ditut.
Adibidez, Osasunaren, [Zahartzaroari]
eta Erretiroaren Europako galdeketa.
eta Erretiroaren Europako galdeketa.
07:30
So for example, there is the Survey of Health, [Aging] and Retirement in Europe.
129
434189
3734
07:33
From this dataset you actually learn that retired European families
130
437923
3834
Datu multzo horretatik ikus dezakegu
Europako familia erretiratuak
Europako familia erretiratuak
07:37
are extremely patient with survey takers.
131
441757
2633
aparteko pazientzia dutela
galdeketa egiten dietenekin.
galdeketa egiten dietenekin.
07:40
(Laughter)
132
444390
1916
(Barreak)
07:42
So imagine that you're a retired household in Belgium and someone comes to your front door.
133
446306
4384
Demagun Belgikar erretirodun bat zarela,
eta norbait zure etxeko atera datorrela.
eta norbait zure etxeko atera datorrela.
07:46
"Excuse me, would you mind if I peruse your stock portfolio?
134
450690
4584
"Barkatu, utziko al zenidake
zure akzioen zerrenda ikusten?
zure akzioen zerrenda ikusten?
07:51
Do you happen to know how much your house is worth? Do you mind telling me?
135
455274
3532
Ba al dakizu zenbat balio duen
zure etxeak? Esango al zenidake?
zure etxeak? Esango al zenidake?
07:54
Would you happen to have a hallway that's more than 10 meters long?
136
458806
3267
Zure etxeko korridoreak 10 metro
baino gehiagoko luzera al du?
baino gehiagoko luzera al du?
07:57
If you do, would you mind if I timed how long it took you to walk down that hallway?
137
462073
4501
Hala bada, neur dezaket zenbat denbora
behar duzun korridorea zeharkatzen?
behar duzun korridorea zeharkatzen?
08:02
Would you mind squeezing as hard as you can, in your dominant hand, this device
138
466574
3897
Estutuko zenuke gailu hau, ahalik eta
indar gehienez, zure esku nagusiarekin
indar gehienez, zure esku nagusiarekin
08:06
so I can measure your grip strength?
139
470471
1512
zure indarra neur dezadan?
08:07
How about blowing into this tube so I can measure your lung capacity?"
140
471983
4023
Eta egingo zenuke putz tutu honetan
zure birika gaitasuna neurtzeko?"
zure birika gaitasuna neurtzeko?"
08:11
The survey takes over a day.
141
476006
2884
Galdeketak egun bat baino gehiago
irauten du.
irauten du.
08:14
(Laughter)
142
478890
1483
(Barreak)
08:16
Combine that with a Demographic and Health Survey
143
480373
3900
Hori USAIDek Afrikako garapen bidean
diren herrialdeetan
diren herrialdeetan
08:20
collected by USAID in developing countries in Africa, for example,
144
484273
4450
egindako Demografia eta Osasun inkesta
batekin elkartu, adibidez,
batekin elkartu, adibidez,
08:24
which that survey actually can go so far as to directly measure the HIV status
145
488723
5151
besteak beste,
HIVren egoera neurtzen duena
HIVren egoera neurtzen duena
08:29
of families living in, for example, rural Nigeria.
146
493874
3099
Nigeriako landa eremuetako
familien artean.
familien artean.
08:32
Combine that with a world value survey,
147
496973
1901
Hori, elkartu
munduko baloreen inkestari,
munduko baloreen inkestari,
08:34
which measures the political opinions and, fortunately for me, the savings behaviors
148
498874
4433
iritzi politikoa, eta nire zorionerako,
aurrezteko portaera neurtzen dituena,
aurrezteko portaera neurtzen dituena,
08:39
of millions of families in hundreds of countries around the world.
149
503307
4699
mundu osoko ehundaka herrialdetako
milioika familiri egina.
milioika familiri egina.
08:43
Take all of that data, combine it, and this map is what you get.
150
508006
3818
Hartu datu horiek guztiak,
eta mapa hau lortzen dugu.
eta mapa hau lortzen dugu.
08:47
What you find is nine countries around the world
151
511824
2250
Aurkitu duguna munduko
bederatzi herrialde dira
bederatzi herrialde dira
08:49
that have significant native populations
152
514074
2652
jatorrizko populazio
nabarmena dutenak
nabarmena dutenak
08:52
which speak both futureless and futured languages.
153
516726
4047
eta etorkizunik gabeko eta etorkizundun
hizkuntzak hitz egiten dituztenak.
hizkuntzak hitz egiten dituztenak.
08:56
And what I'm going to do is form statistical matched pairs
154
520773
3534
Eta honekin, estatistikoki bat datozen
bikoteak osatuko ditut
bikoteak osatuko ditut
09:00
between families that are nearly identical on every dimension that I can measure,
155
524307
5593
neur ditzakedan dimentsio guztietan
ia-ia berdinak direnak.
ia-ia berdinak direnak.
Ea hizkuntzaren eta aurrezteko gaitasunaren
arteko lotura mantentzen den
arteko lotura mantentzen den
09:05
and then I'm going to explore whether or not the link between language and savings holds
156
529900
3537
09:09
even after controlling for all of these levels.
157
533437
3483
maila guzti horiek kontrolatu ondoren ere.
09:12
What are the characteristics we can control for?
158
536920
2217
Zer ezaugarri kontrola ditzakegu?
Herrialde berean jaio eta bizi diren
familiak hartuko ditut.
familiak hartuko ditut.
09:15
Well I'm going to match families on country of birth and residence,
159
539137
2764
09:17
the demographics -- what sex, their age --
160
541901
2402
Demografia -- sexua, adina --,
09:20
their income level within their own country,
161
544303
2134
herrialde horretan duten irabazi maila,
09:22
their educational achievement, a lot about their family structure.
162
546437
3015
hezkuntza lorpenak,
familia egiturari buruzko gauza asko.
familia egiturari buruzko gauza asko.
09:25
It turns out there are six different ways to be married in Europe.
163
549452
3518
Ikusi dut sei modu desberdinetan
egon zaitezkeela ezkonduta Europan.
egon zaitezkeela ezkonduta Europan.
09:28
And most granularly, I break them down by religion
164
552970
4200
Eta xehetasun gehiagorako,
erlijioka zatitu ditut.
erlijioka zatitu ditut.
09:33
where there are 72 categories of religions in the world --
165
557170
3315
72 erlijio-kategoria daude munduan;
09:36
so an extreme level of granularity.
166
560485
1717
Beraz, xehetasun maila oso altua.
09:38
There are 1.4 billion different ways that a family can find itself.
167
562202
4533
1.4 bilioi modu desberdinetan
eratu daiteke familia bat.
eratu daiteke familia bat.
09:42
Now effectively everything I'm going to tell you from now on
168
566735
4049
Hemendik aurrera esango dizuedana
09:46
is only comparing these basically nearly identical families.
169
570784
3050
ia-ia identikoak diren
familia horiek alderatuta ateratakoa da.
familia horiek alderatuta ateratakoa da.
09:49
It's getting as close as possible to the thought experiment
170
573834
2500
Asko gerturatzen da
esperimentu teorikora,
esperimentu teorikora,
09:52
of finding two families both of whom live in Brussels
171
576334
2933
Bruselan bizi diren
bi familia aurkitzearena,
bi familia aurkitzearena,
09:55
who are identical on every single one of these dimensions,
172
579267
3000
arlo guzti horietan berdinak direnak
09:58
but one of whom speaks Flemish and one of whom speaks French;
173
582267
3116
baina batak flandriera eta besteak
frantsesa hitz egiten dutenak;
frantsesa hitz egiten dutenak;
10:01
or two families that live in a rural district in Nigeria,
174
585383
2717
Edo Nigeriako landa eremuan
bizi diren bi familia,
bizi diren bi familia,
10:04
one of whom speaks Hausa and one of whom speaks Igbo.
175
588100
3833
batak Hausa eta besteak Igbo
hitz egiten dutenak.
hitz egiten dutenak.
10:07
Now even after all of this granular level of control,
176
591933
3884
Kontrol maila hain altua
erabili ondoren ere,
erabili ondoren ere,
10:11
do futureless language speakers seem to save more?
177
595817
3166
etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza dutenek
gehiago aurrezten al dute?
gehiago aurrezten al dute?
10:14
Yes, futureless language speakers, even after this level of control,
178
598983
3653
Bai. Etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntzadunek,
kontrol honen ondoren ere,
kontrol honen ondoren ere,
10:18
are 30 percent more likely to report having saved in any given year.
179
602636
3698
urte batean aurreztu izana aitortzeko
ehuneko 30eko aukera handiagoa dute.
ehuneko 30eko aukera handiagoa dute.
10:22
Does this have cumulative effects?
180
606334
1816
Eragin gehigarria al du horrek?
Bai.
Bai.
10:24
Yes, by the time they retire, futureless language speakers, holding constant their income,
181
608150
4420
Erretiratzean, etorkizun gabeko hizkuntzakoek
diru sarrera konstante mantenduz
diru sarrera konstante mantenduz
10:28
are going to retire with 25 percent more in savings.
182
612570
3068
ehuneko 25 aurrezpen
gehiago izango dituzte.
gehiago izango dituzte.
10:31
Can we push this data even further?
183
615638
2481
Gehiago eska al diezaiekegu datu hauei?
10:34
Yes, because I just told you, we actually collect a lot of health data as economists.
184
618119
5299
Bai. Esan bezala, ekonomistok
osasunaren inguruko datu asko ditugu.
osasunaren inguruko datu asko ditugu.
10:39
Now how can we think about health behaviors to think about savings?
185
623418
3883
Nola lotu ditzakegu
osasun portaera eta aurrezpenak?
osasun portaera eta aurrezpenak?
10:43
Well, think about smoking, for example.
186
627301
2833
Pentsa erretzea, adibidez.
10:46
Smoking is in some deep sense negative savings.
187
630134
3183
Erretzea, funtsean aurrezpen negatiboa da.
10:49
If savings is current pain in exchange for future pleasure,
188
633317
3666
Aurreztea egungo galera etorkizuneko
plazerrarekin trukatzea bada,
plazerrarekin trukatzea bada,
10:52
smoking is just the opposite.
189
636983
1308
erretzea justu
aurkakoa da.
aurkakoa da.
10:54
It's current pleasure in exchange for future pain.
190
638291
2859
Egungo plazerra
etorkizuneko galeraren truke.
etorkizuneko galeraren truke.
10:57
What we should expect then is the opposite effect.
191
641150
2950
Beraz, alderantzizko efektua
espero dezakegu.
espero dezakegu.
11:00
And that's exactly what we find.
192
644100
1768
Eta horixe aurkitzen dugu.
11:01
Futureless language speakers are 20 to 24 percent less likely
193
645868
3767
Etorkizunik gabeko hizkuntza dutenek
ehuneko 20-24
ehuneko 20-24
11:05
to be smoking at any given point in time compared to identical families,
194
649635
3415
gutxiago erretzen dute
familia identikoekin alderatuta,
familia identikoekin alderatuta,
11:08
and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent less likely
195
653050
2901
eta ehuneko 13-17 aukera gutxiago
11:11
to be obese by the time they retire,
196
655951
2217
dute erretiratzean obesoak izateko,
11:14
and they're going to report being 21 percent more likely
197
658168
2463
eta ehuneko 21 gehiagok aitortuko dute
11:16
to have used a condom in their last sexual encounter.
198
660631
2287
kondoia erabili zutela
azken sexu harremanean.
azken sexu harremanean.
11:18
I could go on and on with the list of differences that you can find.
199
662918
3483
Luze jarrai dezaket aurki ditzakegun
aldeen zerrendarekin.
aldeen zerrendarekin.
11:22
It's almost impossible not to find a savings behavior
200
666401
3800
Ia ezinezkoa da honek eragiten ez dion
11:26
for which this strong effect isn't present.
201
670201
2599
aurrezpenari lotutako portaera bat
aurkitzea.
aurkitzea.
11:28
My linguistics and economics colleagues at Yale and I are just starting to do this work
202
672800
4750
Lan honekin hasi berriak gara linguistika
eta ekonomiako Yale-eko lankideak eta ni
eta ekonomiako Yale-eko lankideak eta ni
11:33
and really explore and understand the ways that these subtle nudges
203
677550
5167
benetan aztertu eta ulertzeko asmoz,
xehetasun txiki horiek
xehetasun txiki horiek
11:38
cause us to think more or less about the future every single time we speak.
204
682717
5395
nola, hitz egiten dugunero, etorkizunean
gehiago edo gutxiago pentsarazten diguten.
gehiago edo gutxiago pentsarazten diguten.
11:44
Ultimately, the goal,
205
688112
2301
Azken finean, helburua,
11:46
once we understand how these subtle effects can change our decision making,
206
690413
4199
ezaugarri horiek gure erabakiengan nola
eragiten duten ongi ulertzean,
eragiten duten ongi ulertzean,
11:50
we want to be able to provide people tools
207
694612
2950
jendeari tresnak eskaintzea izango da
11:53
so that they can consciously make themselves better savers
208
697562
2808
berariaz aurreztaile hobeak
11:56
and more conscious investors in their own future.
209
700370
3259
eta etorkizunerako inbertitzaile hobeak
izan daitezen.
izan daitezen.
11:59
Thank you very much.
210
703629
2267
Mila esker.
12:01
(Applause)
211
705896
6368
(Txaloak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Keith Chen - Behavioral economistKeith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future.
Why you should listen
Does the future look like a different world to you, or more like an extension of the present? In an intriguing piece of research, Keith Chen suggests that your attitude about the future has a strong relationship to the language you speak. In a nutshell, some languages refer to the future using verb helpers like "will" and "shall," while others don't have specific verbs to refer to future actions. Chen correlated these two different language types with remarkably different rates of saving for the future (guess who saves more?). He calls this connection the "futurity" of languages. The paper is in the process of being published by the American Economic Review, and it's already generated discussion. Chen says: "While the data I analyze don’t allow me to completely understand what role language plays in these relationships, they suggest that there is something really remarkable to be explained about the interaction of language and economic decision-making. These correlations are so strong and survive such an aggressive set of controls, that the chances they arise by random lies somewhere between one in 10,000 and one in 10^32."
Chen excels in asking unusual questions to yield original results. Another work (with Yale colleague and TEDGlobal 2009 speaker Laurie Santos) examined how monkeys view economic risk--with surprisingly humanlike irrationality. While a working paper asks a surprising, if rhetorical, question: Does it make economic sense for a woman to become a physician?
Chen is currently Uber's Head of Economic Research and is an associate professor of economics at UCLA .
Keith Chen | Speaker | TED.com