TEDxBoulder 2011
Phil Plait: How to defend Earth from asteroids
Phil Plait: Kako obraniti Zemlju od asteroida
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Što je devet kilometara široko i može dokrajčiti civilizaciju u trenu? Asteroid -- a u svemiru ih je mnogo. Humorom i sjajnim ilustracijama, Phil Plait očarava publiku na skupu TEDxBoulder objašnjavajući kako sve asteroidi mogu ubiti, te što moramo činiti da ih izbjegnemo.
Phil Plait - Astronomer
Phil Plait blogs at Bad Astronomy, where he deconstructs misconceptions and explores the wonder of the universe. Full bio
Phil Plait blogs at Bad Astronomy, where he deconstructs misconceptions and explores the wonder of the universe. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I want to talk to you about something
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Želim vam govoriti
00:18
kind of big.
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o nečemu velikom.
00:21
We'll start here.
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Počet ćemo od ovoga.
00:24
65 million years ago
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Prije 65 milijuna godina
00:27
the dinosaurs had a bad day.
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dinosauri su imali gadan dan.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:33
A chunk of rock six miles across,
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Komad stijene promjera 9 kilometara
00:36
moving something like 50 times
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koji se kretao brzinom otprilike
00:38
the speed of a rifle bullet,
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50 puta bržom od metka,
00:40
slammed into the Earth.
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zabio se u Zemlju.
00:42
It released its energy all at once,
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Oslobodio je svu energiju odjednom
00:44
and it was an explosion that was
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i došlo je do eksplozije
00:46
mind-numbing.
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nepojmljive siline.
00:48
If you took every nuclear weapon ever built
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Uzmete li sva nuklearna oružja ikad napravljena
00:50
at the height of the Cold War,
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na vrhuncu hladnog rata,
00:52
lumped them together and blew them up
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skupite ih i dignete u zrak
00:54
at the same time,
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u isto vrijeme,
00:56
that would be one one-millionth
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oslobodio bi se milijunti dio
00:58
of the energy released at that moment.
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energije oslobođene u onom trenutku.
01:02
The dinosaurs had a really bad day.
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Dinosauri su imali doista loš dan.
01:05
Okay?
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Dobro?
01:07
Now, a six-mile-wide rock is very large.
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Devet kilometara široka stijena je stvarno velika.
01:09
We all live here in Boulder.
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Svi mi živimo ovdje u Boulderu.
01:11
If you look out your window and you can see
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Ako pogledate kroz prozor, možete vidjeti
01:13
Long's Peak, you're probably familiar with it.
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Long's Peak, vjerojatno vam je poznat.
01:15
Now, scoop up Long's Peak, and put it out
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Podignimo Long's Peak, i stavimo ga
01:17
in space.
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u svemir.
01:19
Take Meeker, Mt. Meeker. Lump that in there,
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Uzmimo planinu Meeker, Mt. Meeker.
01:21
and put that in space as well,
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Stavimo i nju u svemir,
01:23
and Mt. Everest, and K2,
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i Mt. Everest, i K2,
01:25
and the Indian peaks.
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i Indian Peaks.
01:27
Then you're starting to get an idea of
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Tada ćete početi shvaćati
01:29
how much rock we're talking about, okay?
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o kolikoj stijeni pričamo, u redu?
01:31
We know it was that big because of
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Znamo da je bila tako velika zbog
01:33
the impact it had and the crater it left.
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učinka i kratera koji je ostavila.
01:35
It hit in what we now know as Yucatan,
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Udarila je na mjestu koje zovemo Yucatan,
01:37
the Gulf of Mexico.
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u Meksičkom zaljevu.
01:39
You can see here, there's the
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Evo ovdje, ovo je
01:41
Yucatan Peninsula, if you recognize Cozumel
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poluotok Yucatan, ako prepoznajete Cozumel
01:43
off the east coast there.
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u blizini istočne obale.
01:45
Here is how big of a crater was left.
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Evo koliki je krater ostao.
01:48
It was huge. To give you a sense of the scale,
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Bio je ogroman. Da biste dobili osjećaj veličine,
01:50
okay, there you go. The scale here is
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evo. Ovdje je mjerilo
01:52
50 miles on top, a hundred kilometers
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50 milja na vrhu, stotinu kilometara
01:54
on the bottom. This thing was
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na dnu. Krater je bio
01:56
300 kilometers across -- 200 miles --
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širok 300 kilometara -- 200 milja --
01:58
an enormous crater that excavated out
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ogroman krater koji je iskopao
02:00
vast amounts of earth that splashed around
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nepregledne količine zemlje koja je letjela
02:03
the globe and set fires all over the planet,
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globusom i palila požare po cijelom planetu,
02:06
threw up enough dust to block out the sun.
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izbacila dovoljno prašine da prekrije sunce.
02:09
It wiped out 75 percent of all species
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75 posto svih živih vrsta na Zemlji
02:11
on Earth.
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bilo je izbrisano.
02:13
Now, not all asteroids are that big.
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Nisu svi asteroidi tako veliki.
02:16
Some of them are smaller.
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Neki su manji.
02:18
Here is one that came in
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Evo jednog koji je stigao
02:21
over the United States
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nad Sjedinjene Države
02:23
in October of 1992.
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u listopadu 1992.
02:25
It came in on a Friday night.
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Stigao je u petak uvečer.
02:27
Why is that important?
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Zašto je to važno?
02:29
Because back then, video cameras were
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Zato što su u to vrijeme video kamere
02:31
just starting to become popular, and people
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postajale popularne i ljudi bi ih
02:33
would bring them, parents would bring them,
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ponijeli, roditelji su ih nosili
02:35
to their kids' football games to film their kids
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na nogometne utakmice da snime svoju djecu
02:37
play football. And since this came in on a Friday,
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na terenu. A kako je asteroid došao u petak,
02:40
they were able to get this great footage
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snimili su ovu sjajnu snimku gdje vidimo
02:42
of this thing breaking up as it came in
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kako se ta stvar raspada dok pristiže
02:44
over West Virgina, Maryland, Pennsylvania
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iznad Zapadne Virginije, Marylanda, Pennsylvanije
02:46
and New Jersey until it did that
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i New Jerseya dok nije napravila ovo
02:48
to a car in New York.
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automobilu u New Yorku.
02:50
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:52
Now, this is not a 200-mile-wide crater,
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Ovo nije krater širok 300 kilometara,
02:55
but then again you can see the rock
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no možete vidjeti stijenu
02:57
which is sitting right here,
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koja leži baš ovdje,
02:59
about the size of a football, that hit
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veličine nogometne lopte, i to je ta
03:01
that car and did that damage.
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koja je pogodila automobil i napravila štetu.
03:03
Now this thing was probably about the size
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Stijena je vjerojatno bila veličine
03:05
of a school bus when it first came in.
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školskog autobusa kad se pojavila.
03:07
It broke up through atmospheric pressure,
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Razlomila se uslijed atmosferskog pritiska,
03:09
it crumbled, and then the pieces fell apart
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razmrvila, a tada su dijelovi pali zasebno
03:11
and did some damage.
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i napravili štetu.
03:13
Now, you wouldn't want that falling on your foot
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Ne biste htjeli da vam to padne na nogu
03:15
or your head, because it would do that to it.
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ili na glavu, jer biste prošli ovako.
03:17
That would be bad.
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To bi bilo loše.
03:19
But it won't wipe out, you know, all life
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Ali neće izbrisati sav život
03:21
on Earth, so that's fine. But it turns out,
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na Zemlji, što je dobro. No, pokazuje se,
03:23
you don't need something six miles across
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da vam ne treba nešto široko 9 kilometara
03:26
to do a lot of damage.
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da napravi puno štete.
03:28
There is a median point between tiny rock
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Postoji medijan između malene stijene
03:30
and gigantic rock, and in fact, if any of you
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i divovske stijene i, ako je itko od vas
03:32
have ever been to near Winslow, Arizona,
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bio blizu Winslowa u Arizoni,
03:35
there is a crater in the desert there that is
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ondje je krater u pustinji
03:38
so iconic that it is actually called Meteor Crater.
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koji je tako živopisan da se zove Meteor Crater.
03:42
To give you a sense of scale, this is about a mile wide.
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Da biste imali osjećaj, ovo je negdje 1,6 km široko.
03:45
If you look up at the top, that's a parking lot,
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Ako pogledate gore, vidite parkiralište,
03:48
and those are recreational vehicles right there.
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a ovdje su rekreacijska vozila.
03:51
So it's about a mile across, 600 feet deep.
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Širok je oko 1,6 km, dubok oko 200 metara.
03:54
The object that formed this was probably about
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Objekt koji je ovo napravio je vjerojatno bio
03:57
30 to 50 yards across, so roughly the size
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širok 27 sa 45 metara, otprilike veličine
04:00
of Mackey Auditorium here.
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ove naše dvorane.
04:03
It came in at speeds that were tremendous,
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Doletio je silnom brzinom,
04:06
slammed into the ground, blew up,
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zabio se u tlo i eksplodirao
04:08
and exploded with the energy of roughly
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energijom otprilike
04:10
a 20-megaton nuclear bomb --
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20-megatonske nuklearne bombe --
04:12
a very hefty bomb.
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poprilične bombe.
04:14
This was 50,000 years ago, so it may have
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To se zbilo prije 50.000 godina, pa je možda
04:16
wiped out a few buffalo or antelope,
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izbrisalo nekoliko bizona ili antilopi,
04:18
or something like that out in the desert,
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ili nekih sličnih životinja u pustinji,
04:21
but it probably would not have caused
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ali vjerojatno nije prouzročilo
04:23
global devastation.
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globalnu devastaciju.
04:25
It turns out that these things don't have to
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Pokazuje se da te stvari ne moraju
04:27
hit the ground to do a lot of damage.
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udariti o tlo da bi izazvale veliku štetu.
04:30
Now, in 1908, over Siberia, near the
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1908. godine, nad Sibirom,
04:32
Tunguska region -- for those of you who are
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u regiji Tunguska -- za one među vama
04:34
Dan Aykroyd fans and saw "Ghostbusters,"
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koji volite Dana Aykroyda i gledali ste „Istjerivače duhova",
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when he talked about the greatest cross-dimensional rift
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kad on govori o najvećem međudimenzionalnom rascjepu
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since the Siberia blast of 1909, where he got
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od sibirske eksplozije 1909., kad je
04:42
the date wrong, but that's okay. (Laughter)
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pogriješio u godini, ali to je OK. (Smijeh)
04:44
It was 1908. That's fine. I can live with that.
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Bilo je to 1908. Dobro. S tim se mogu pomiriti.
04:47
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:50
Another rock came into the Earth's atmosphere
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Ta je stijena ušla u zemljinu atmosferu
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and this one blew up above the ground, several
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i eksplodirala iznad tla, nekoliko
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miles up above the surface of the Earth.
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kilometara iznad zemljine površine.
04:58
The heat from the explosion set fire to the
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Vrelina eksplozije je zapalila
05:01
forest below it, and then the shock wave
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šumu ispod, i udarni val
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came down and knocked down trees for
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se spustio i oborio drveće na površini
05:06
hundreds of square miles, okay?
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od više stotina četvornih kilometara, ok?
05:09
This did a huge amount of damage.
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Šteta je bila ogromna.
05:11
And again, this was a rock probably roughly
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Opet, ta je stijena otprilike bila
05:13
the size of this auditorium that we're sitting in.
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veličine dvorane u kojoj se nalazimo.
05:15
In Meteor Crater it was made of metal,
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U slučaju Meteor Cratera, stijena je bila od metala,
05:17
and metal is much tougher, so it made it
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a metal je puno tvrđi, pa je stigla
05:19
to the ground.
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do tla.
05:21
The one over Tunguska was probably made
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Ona nad Tunguskom je vjerojatno bila
05:23
of rock, and that's much more crumbly, so it
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od kamena koji se lakše mrvi, pa je
05:25
blew up in the air. Either way, these are
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eksplodirala u zraku. Kako god,
05:27
tremendous explosions, 20 megatons.
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to su silne eksplozije. 20 megatona.
05:30
Now, when these things blow up, they're not
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Kad te stvari eksplodiraju,
05:32
going to do global ecological damage.
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ne uzrokuju globalnu ekološku štetu.
05:35
They're not going to do something like
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Neće napraviti nešto poput
05:37
the dinosaur-killer did.
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ubojice dinosaura.
05:39
They're just not big enough.
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Jednostavno nisu dovoljno velike.
05:41
But they will do global economic damage,
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Ali će napraviti globalnu ekonomsku štetu,
05:43
because they don't have to hit, necessarily,
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jer ne moraju nužno udariti,
05:45
to do this kind of damage.
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da bi nanijele tu vrstu štete.
05:47
They don't have to do global devastation.
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Ne moraju izazvati globalnu devastaciju.
05:49
If one of these things were to hit
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Kad bi jedna od tih stvari udarila
05:51
pretty much anywhere, it would cause a panic.
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bilo gdje, izazvala bi paniku.
05:53
But if it came over a city, an important city --
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No ako bi došla nad grad, neki važan grad --
05:55
not that any city is more important than others,
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ne mislim da je neki grad važniji od drugih,
05:57
but some of them we depend on them more
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ali o nekima više ovisimo
05:59
on the global economic basis -- that could do
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u smislu globalne ekonomije -- to bi nam moglo
06:02
a huge amount of damage to us
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nanijeti ogromnu štetu
06:05
as a civilization.
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kao civilizaciji.
06:07
So, now that I've scared the crap out of you ...
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Sad kad sam vas izbezumio od straha ...
06:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:12
what can we do about this? All right?
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što možemo učiniti oko ovoga? Dobro?
06:14
This is a potential threat.
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Ovo je potencijalna opasnost.
06:16
Let me note that we have not had
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Napominjem da nismo imali
06:18
a giant impact like the dinosaur-killer
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silovit udar poput ubojice dinosaura
06:20
for 65 million years. They're very rare.
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već 65 milijuna godina. Vrlo su rijetki.
06:23
The smaller ones happen more often, but
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Manji udari su češći,
06:26
probably on the order of a millennium,
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vjerojatno svakih tisuću godina,
06:28
every few centuries or every few thousand
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svakih par stoljeća ili svakih nekoliko
06:30
years, but it's still something to be aware of.
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tisuća godina, ali moramo voditi računa.
06:33
Well, what do we do about them?
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Dakle, što učiniti u vezi s njima?
06:35
The first thing we have to do is find them.
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Prvo ih moramo pronaći.
06:37
This is an image of an asteroid that passed
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Ovo je slika asteroida koji je prošao
06:39
us in 2009.
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kraj nas 2009. godine.
06:41
It's right here.
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Evo ga ovdje.
06:43
But you can see that it's extremely faint.
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Ali vidite da je izuzetno blijed.
06:45
I don't even know if you can see that
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Nisam siguran možete li ga vidjeti
06:47
in the back row. These are just stars.
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vi u zadnjem redu. Ovo su samo zvijezde.
06:49
This is a rock that was about 30 yards across,
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Ova stijena je bila oko 27 metara široka,
06:51
so roughly the size of the ones that blew up
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otprilike veličine onih koje su eksplodirale
06:53
over Tunguska and hit Arizona 50,000 years ago.
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nad Tunguskom ili u Arizoni prije 50.000 godina.
06:56
These things are faint.
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Te su stvari jedva vidljive.
06:58
They're hard to see, and the sky is really big.
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Teško ih je vidjeti, a nebo je doista veliko.
07:00
We have to find these things first.
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Prvo ih moramo naći.
07:02
Well the good news is, we're looking for them.
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Dobra je vijest da ih tražimo.
07:04
NASA has devoted money to this.
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NASA ima proračun za to.
07:06
The National Science Foundation, other
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Nacionalna fondacija za znanost i
07:08
countries are very interested in doing this.
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druge zemlje se zanimaju za to.
07:10
We're building telescopes that are looking
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Pravimo teleskope koji traže
07:12
for the threat. That's a great first step,
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prijetnju. To je odličan prvi korak,
07:14
but what's the second step? The second step
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ali koji je drugi? Drugi korak je,
07:16
is that we see one heading toward us,
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kad vidimo asteroid kako ide na nas,
07:18
we have to stop it. What do we do?
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da ga zaustavimo. Na koji način?
07:20
You've probably heard about the asteroid
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Vjerojatno ste čuli za asteroid
07:22
Apophis. If you haven't yet, you will.
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Apophis. Ako još niste, čut ćete.
07:25
If you've heard about the Mayan 2012
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Ako ste čuli za majansku apokalipsu 2012.
07:27
apocalypse, you're going to hear about Apophis,
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čut ćete i za Apophis,
07:29
because you're keyed in to all the doomsday
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jer ste onda već uključeni u sve mreže
07:31
networks anyway.
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koje prognoziraju sudnji dan.
07:34
Apophis is an asteroid that was discovered in 2004.
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Apophis je asteroid otkriven 2004.
07:37
It's roughly 250 yards across, so it's
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Širok je oko 225 metara,
07:40
pretty big -- big size, you know,
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vrlo velik, znate,
07:42
bigger than a football stadium -- and it's going to
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veći od stadiona -- i proći će
07:44
pass by the Earth in April of 2029.
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kraj Zemlje u travnju 2029.
07:47
And it's going to pass us so close that it's
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Proći će tako blizu da će
07:49
actually going to come underneath
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proći ispod naših
07:51
our weather satellites.
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klimatskih satelita.
07:53
The Earth's gravity is going to bend the orbit
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Zemljina gravitacija će zakriviti orbitu
07:55
of this thing so much that if it's just right,
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asteroida toliko da, ako bude ovako,
07:58
if it passes through this region of space,
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ako prođe kroz ovaj dio svemira,
08:01
this kidney bean-shaped region called
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ovu regiju u obliku graha koju zovemo
08:03
the keyhole, the Earth's gravity will bend it
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ključaonica, zemljina gravitacija će je dovoljno
08:05
just enough that seven years later
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zakriviti da ću ja, sedam godina kasnije,
08:07
on April 13, which is a Friday, I'll note,
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13. travnja, u petak, zapisati,
08:09
in the year 2036 ... (Laughter)
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godine 2036. ... (Smijeh)
08:12
-- you can't plan that kind of stuff --
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-- ne možete isplanirati ovakvo što --
08:15
Apophis is going to hit us. And it's
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u tom slučaju će nas Apophis pogoditi.
08:17
250 meters across, so it would do
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Širok je 250 metara, pa će prouzročiti
08:19
unbelievable damage.
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nevjerojatnu štetu.
08:21
Now the good news is that the odds of it
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Dobra je vijest da su šanse da će
08:23
actually passing through this keyhole and
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proći kroz ključaonicu i udariti nas
08:25
hitting us next go-around are one in a million,
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u sljedećem prolazu, negdje 1 naprema milijun,
08:27
roughly -- very, very low odds, so I personally
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vrlo, vrlo male šanse, pa osobno
08:29
am not lying awake at night worrying about this at all.
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baš i ne ležim budan noću brinući o tome.
08:31
I don't think Apophis is a problem.
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Ne mislim da je Apophis problem.
08:33
In fact, Apophis is a blessing in disguise,
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Zapravo, Apophis je skriveni blagoslov,
08:35
because it woke us up to the dangers
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jer nam skreće pažnju na opasnost
08:37
of these things.
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koja nam prijeti.
08:39
This thing was discovered just a few years
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Taj asteroid je otkriven prije samo nekoliko
08:41
ago and could hit us a few years from now.
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godina i može nas pogoditi za nekoliko godina.
08:43
It won't, but it gives us a chance to study
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Neće, ali nam pruža priliku da proučimo
08:45
these kinds of asteroids. We didn't really
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tu vrstu asteroida. Nismo zapravo
08:47
necessarily understand these keyholes, and
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razumjeli te ključaonice, ali sada
08:49
now we do and it turns out
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ih razumijemo i pokazuje se
08:51
that's really important, because how do you
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da su zbilja važne, jer kako
08:53
stop an asteroid like this?
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zaustaviti ovakav asteroid?
08:55
Well, let me ask you, what happens if you're
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Da vas pitam, što se događa
08:57
standing in the middle of the road and a car's
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ako stojite nasred ceste i automobil
08:59
headed for you? What do you do? You do this.
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juri na vas? Što činite? Ovo.
09:01
Right? Move. The car goes past you.
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Zar ne? Mičete se. Auto prolazi kraj vas.
09:03
But we can't move the Earth, at least
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Ali ne možemo pomaknuti Zemlju, barem
09:05
not easily, but we can move a small asteroid.
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ne lako, ali možemo pomaknuti mali asteroid.
09:07
And it turns out, we've even done it.
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Zapravo, već smo to učinili.
09:09
In the year 2005, NASA launched a probe
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2005. je NASA lansirala sondu
09:12
called Deep Impact, which slammed into --
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pod nazivom Deep Impact, koja se zabila --
09:15
slammed a piece of itself into the nucleus of a comet.
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zabila svoj dio u jezgru kometa.
09:18
Comets are very much like asteroids.
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Kometi su vrlo slični asteroidima.
09:20
The purpose wasn't to push it out of the way.
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Cilj nije bio izgurati ga s putanje.
09:22
The purpose was to make a crater to excavate
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Cilj je bio napraviti krater i iskopati
09:24
the material and see what was underneath
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materijal da vidimo što je ispod
09:26
the surface of this comet, which we learned
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površine tog kometa, o kojemu
09:28
quite a bit about.
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smo naučili prilično puno.
09:30
We did move the comet a little tiny bit,
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Pomaknuli smo komet malo,
09:32
not very much, but that wasn't the point.
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vrlo malo, ali to nije bio cilj.
09:34
However, think about this.
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No, razmislite o sljedećem.
09:36
This thing is orbiting the sun at
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Ta stvar kruži oko sunca brzinom
09:38
10 miles per second, 20 miles per second.
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od 15 km u sekundi, 30 km u sekundi.
09:40
We shot a space probe at it and hit it. Okay?
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Ispalili smo sondu i pogodila ga. Dobro?
09:42
Imagine how hard that must be, and we did it.
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Zamislite kako je to teško postići, a mi smo uspjeli.
09:45
That means we can do it again.
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To znači da to možemo ponoviti.
09:48
If we need, if we see an asteroid that's coming
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Ako moramo, ako vidimo asteroid da ide
09:50
toward us, and it's headed right for us,
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prema nama, ravno na nas,
09:52
and we have two years to go, boom! We hit it.
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i imamo još dvije godine, bum! Pogodimo ga.
09:55
You can try to -- you know, if you watch
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Možete probati -- znate, ako gledate
09:57
the movies, you might think about,
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filmove, mogli biste pomisliti,
09:59
why don't we use a nuclear weapon?
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zašto ne upotrijebimo nuklearno oružje?
10:01
It's like, well, you can try that, but the problem is timing.
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No, možete pokušati, ali problem je u tajmingu.
10:03
You shoot a nuclear weapon at this thing,
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Ispalite li nuklearno oružje na tu stvar,
10:05
you have to blow it up within a few milliseconds
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morate detonirati unutar nekoliko milisekundi
10:07
of tolerance or else you'll just miss it.
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tolerancije ili ćete je promašiti.
10:09
And there are a lot of other problems
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A ima i drugih problema s time.
10:11
with that. It's very hard to do.
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To je vrlo teško postići.
10:13
But just hitting something? That's pretty easy.
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No, samo nešto pogoditi? To je prilično lako.
10:15
I think even NASA can do that,
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Mislim da to čak i NASA može,
10:17
and they proved that they can. (Laughter)
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a i dokazali su da mogu. (Smijeh)
10:19
The problem is, what happens if you hit
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Teškoća je, što ako pogodite
10:21
this asteroid, you've changed the orbit,
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asteroid, promijenite mu orbitu,
10:23
you measure the orbit and then you find out,
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izmjerite orbitu i otkrijete,
10:25
oh, yeah, we just pushed it into a keyhole,
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opa, da, upravo smo ga usmjerili u ključaonicu,
10:27
and now it's going to hit us in three years.
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i sad će nas pogoditi za tri godine.
10:29
Well, my opinion is, fine. Okay?
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Moje mišljenje je, fino. Dobro?
10:31
It's not hitting us in six months. That's good.
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Bar nas neće pogoditi za šest mjeseci. To je dobro.
10:33
Now we have three years to do something else.
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Sad imamo tri godine za pokušati nešto drugo.
10:36
And you can hit it again. That's kind of
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I možete ga opet gađati.
10:38
ham-fisted. You might just push it into a third
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No, možete ga samo pogurati prema trećoj
10:40
keyhole or whatever, so you don't do that.
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ključaonici, a to ne želite učiniti.
10:42
And this is the part, it's the part I just love.
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A sad slijedi dio priče koji naročito volim.
10:46
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:48
After the big macho "Rrrrrrr BAM! We're
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Nakon velikog, mačo "Rrrrrrr BAM!
10:50
gonna hit this thing in the face,"
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Pogodili smo tu stvar u facu",
10:52
then we bring in the velvet gloves.
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navlačimo baršunaste rukavice.
10:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:58
There's a group of scientists and engineers
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Imate jednu skupinu znanstvenika, inženjera
11:00
and astronauts and they call themselves
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i astronauta koji se nazivaju
11:02
The B612 Foundation. For those of you
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Fondacija B612. Vi koji ste čitali
11:04
who've read "The Little Prince,"
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„Malog princa"
11:06
you understand that reference, I hope. The little prince
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razumijete odakle naziv. Mali princ je
11:08
who lived on an asteroid, it was called B612.
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živio na asteroidu koji se zvao B612.
11:10
These are smart guys -- men and women --
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To su pametni tipovi -- muškarci i žene --
11:12
astronauts, like I said, engineers.
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astronauti, kako rekoh, inženjeri.
11:14
Rusty Schweickart, who was an Apollo 9
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Rusty Schweickart, astronaut s Apolla 9
11:16
astronaut, is on this. Dan Durda, my friend
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je u tome. Dan Durda, moj prijatelj
11:18
who made this image, works here at
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koji je izradio ovu ilustraciju, radi na
11:20
Southwest Research Institute in Boulder,
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Southwest Research institutu u Boulderu,
11:22
on Walnut Street. He created this image for this,
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na Walnut Streetu. Napravio je ovaj prikaz,
11:24
and he's actually one of the astronomers
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i on je jedan od astronoma
11:26
who works for them. If we see an asteroid
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koji rade za fondaciju. Ako opazimo asteroid
11:28
that's going to hit the Earth and we have
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koji će pogoditi Zemlju i imamo
11:30
enough time, we can hit it to move it into
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dovoljno vremena, možemo ga pogoditi i pomaknuti
11:33
a better orbit. But then what we do is we launch
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na bolju putanju. Lansiramo sondu
11:36
a probe that has to weigh a ton or two.
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koja mora biti tonu ili dvije teška.
11:38
It doesn't have to be huge -- couple of tons,
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Ne mora biti ogromna -- dvije tone,
11:41
not that big -- and you park it near the asteroid.
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nije preveliko -- i parkirate je blizu asteroida.
11:44
You don't land on it, because these things are
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Ne slijećete na asteroid, jer se oni
11:46
tumbling end over end. It's very hard to land on them.
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neprestano okreću. Teško je sletjeti na njih.
11:48
Instead you get near it.
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Već se smjestite blizu njega.
11:50
The gravity of the asteroid pulls on the probe,
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Gravitacija asteroida privlači sondu,
11:52
and the probe has a couple of tons of mass.
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a ona ima masu od dvije tone.
11:55
It has a little tiny bit of gravity, but it's enough
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Njena je gravitacija vrlo mala, ali dovoljna
11:57
that it can pull the asteroid, and you have your
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da povuče asteroid, a imate i rakete
11:59
rockets set up, so you can -- oh, you can barely
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pa možete -- ovdje se to jedva vidi,
12:01
see it here, but there's rocket plumes -- and you
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ali ovo su raketni motori --
12:03
basically, these guys are connected by their
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oni su povezani vlastitom gravitacijom
12:05
own gravity, and if you move the probe very
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i ako mičete sondu vrlo polako,
12:08
slowly, very, very gently, you can very easily
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vrlo, vrlo nježno, možete lako
12:12
finesse that rock into a safe orbit.
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uputiti tu stijenu na sigurnu putanju.
12:15
You can even put in orbit around the Earth
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Možete je čak postaviti u orbitu oko Zemlje
12:17
where we could mine it, although that's a
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gdje je možemo rudariti, premda je to
12:19
whole other thing. I won't go into that.
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nešto sasvim drugo. Ne ulazim u to.
12:21
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:23
But we'd be rich!
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Ali bili bismo bogati!
12:25
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:30
So think about this, right?
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Zato razmislite o tome, dobro?
12:32
There are these giant rocks flying out there,
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Imate te divovske stijene koje lete posvuda,
12:34
and they're hitting us, and they're doing
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pogađaju nas i prave štetu,
12:36
damage to us, but we've figured out how to do
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ali smo shvatili kako ovo uraditi
12:38
this, and all the pieces are in place to do this.
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i sve su komponente na mjestu za to.
12:41
We have astronomers in place with telescopes
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Imamo astronome s teleskopima
12:43
looking for them. We have smart people,
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koji ih traže. Imamo pametne ljude,
12:45
very, very smart people, who are concerned
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vrlo, vrlo pametne ljude koji brinu
12:47
about this and figuring out how to fix the
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o tome i smišljaju kako riješiti problem,
12:49
problem, and we have the technology to do this.
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a imamo i tehnologiju za to.
12:52
This probe actually can't use chemical rockets.
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Ova sonda zapravo ne može koristiti kemijske rakete.
12:54
Chemical rockets provide too much thrust, too
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Kemijske rakete daju previše potiska, previše
12:56
much push. The probe would just shoot away.
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guranja. Sonda bi naprosto odletjela.
12:58
We invented something called an ion drive,
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Izumili smo nešto što se zove ionski pogon,
13:00
which is a very, very, very low-thrust engine.
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koji je pogon s vrlo, vrlo malim potiskom.
13:03
It generates the force a piece of paper would
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Stvara silu kakvu ima list papira
13:05
have on your hand, incredibly light,
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na vašem dlanu, nevjerojatno lagano,
13:07
but it can run for months and years,
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ali može raditi mjesecima i godinama,
13:10
providing that very gentle push.
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ostvarujući taj vrlo nježan potisak.
13:13
If anybody here is a fan of the original "Star Trek,"
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Ako ovdje ima ljubitelja izvornih „Zvjezdanih staza“,
13:15
they ran across an alien ship that had
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oni su tamo naišli na izvanzemaljski brod
13:17
an ion drive, and Spock said,
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s ionskim pogonom i Spock je rekao,
13:19
"They're very technically sophisticated.
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"Tehnološki su vrlo napredni.
13:21
They're a hundred years ahead of us with this drive."
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S ovim pogonom su stotinu godina ispred nas."
13:23
Yeah, we have an ion drive now. (Laughter)
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Da, sad i mi imamo ionski pogon. (Smijeh)
13:25
We don't have the Enterprise, but
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Nemamo Enterprise, ali
13:27
we've got an ion drive now.
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imamo ionski pogon.
13:29
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
13:32
Spock.
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Spock.
13:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:37
So ...
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Dakle ...
13:39
that's the difference, that's the difference
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to je razlika, to je razlika
13:41
between us and the dinosaurs.
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između nas i dinosaura.
13:43
This happened to them.
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Njima se to dogodilo.
13:45
It doesn't have to happen to us.
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Nama se ne mora dogoditi.
13:47
The difference between the dinosaurs and us
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Razlika između dinosaura i nas
13:50
is that we have a space program
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je u tome što mi imamo svemirski program
13:52
and we can vote,
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i možemo glasati,
13:54
and so we can change our future.
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pa time i promijeniti svoju budućnost.
13:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:58
We have the ability to change our future.
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Imamo sposobnost promijeniti svoju budućnost.
14:01
65 million years from now,
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Za 65 milijuna godina,
14:03
we don't have to have our bones
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naše kosti ne moraju
14:05
collecting dust in a museum.
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skupljati prašinu u nekom muzeju.
14:07
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam lijepa.
14:09
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Phil Plait - AstronomerPhil Plait blogs at Bad Astronomy, where he deconstructs misconceptions and explores the wonder of the universe.
Why you should listen
Phil Plait is the Bad Astronomer. Not a bad astronomer, but a blogger for Slate who debunks myths and misconceptions about astronomy -- and also writes about the beauty, wonder and importance of fundamental research.
He worked for six years on the Hubble Space Telescope, and directed public outreach for the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. He is a past president of the James Randi Educational Foundation, and was the host of Phil Plait's Bad Universe, a documentary series on the Discovery Channel.
Read more from Phil Plait in the Huffington Post's special TEDWeekends feature, "Asteroids: Getting Ready" >>
Phil Plait | Speaker | TED.com