TEDSalon NY2014
Naomi Oreskes: Why we should trust scientists
Naomi Oreskes: Zašto bismo trebali vjerovati znanstvenicima?
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Mnogi veliki svjetski problemi zahtjevaju postavljanje pitanja znanstvenika, ali zašto bismo im trebali vjerovati? Povjesničarka znanosti Naomi Oreskes duboko razmišlja o našem odnosu prema vjeri i ističe tri problema s uobičajenim stajalištima prema znanstvenim istraživanjima i daje svoje obrazloženje zašto bismo trebali vjerovati znanosti.
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of science
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Every day we face issues like climate change
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Svakodnevno smo suočeni s problemima
kao što su klimatske promjene
kao što su klimatske promjene
00:16
or the safety of vaccines
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ili sigurnosti cjepiva
00:17
where we have to answer questions whose answers
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gdje moramo odgovoriti na
pitanja čiji se odgovori
pitanja čiji se odgovori
00:20
rely heavily on scientific information.
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oslanjaju na znanstvene informacije.
00:23
Scientists tell us that the world is warming.
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Znanstvenici govore o
globalnom zatopljenju.
globalnom zatopljenju.
00:26
Scientists tell us that vaccines are safe.
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Govore nam da su cjepiva sigurna.
00:29
But how do we know if they are right?
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Kako znati da su oni u pravu?
00:31
Why should be believe the science?
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Zašto bi trebali vjerovati znanosti?
00:33
The fact is, many of us actually
don't believe the science.
don't believe the science.
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Činjenica je da mnogi od nas
ne vjeruju u znanost.
ne vjeruju u znanost.
00:36
Public opinion polls consistently show
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Istraživanja javnog mišljenja pokazuju da
00:39
that significant proportions of the American people
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velika većina američke popoulacije
00:42
don't believe the climate is
warming due to human activities,
warming due to human activities,
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ne vjeruje da se klima
mijenja zbog ljudskih aktivnosti.
mijenja zbog ljudskih aktivnosti.
00:45
don't think that there is
evolution by natural selection,
evolution by natural selection,
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ne misle da postoji
evolucija prirodnom selekcijom,
evolucija prirodnom selekcijom,
00:48
and aren't persuaded by the safety of vaccines.
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i nisu uvjereni u sigurnost cjepiva.
00:52
So why should we believe the science?
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Zašto bismo vjerovali znanosti?
00:56
Well, scientists don't like talking about
science as a matter of belief.
science as a matter of belief.
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Znanstvenici ne vole govoriti
o znanosti kao predmetu vjerovanja.
o znanosti kao predmetu vjerovanja.
00:59
In fact, they would contrast science with faith,
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Oni bi suprostavili znanost i vjeru
01:02
and they would say belief is the domain of faith.
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smatrajući da je vjerovanje domena vjere.
01:05
And faith is a separate thing
apart and distinct from science.
apart and distinct from science.
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Vjera je zasebna stvar
i različita od znanosti.
i različita od znanosti.
01:09
Indeed they would say religion is based on faith
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Doduše religija je zasnovana na vjerovanju
01:12
or maybe the calculus of Pascal's wager.
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ili možda ishodu Paskalove oklade.
01:15
Blaise Pascal was a 17th-century mathematician
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Blaise Pascal bio je matematičar
sedamnaestoga stoljeća
sedamnaestoga stoljeća
01:18
who tried to bring scientific
reasoning to the question of
reasoning to the question of
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koji je pokušao dati znanstveno
objašnjenje na pitanje
objašnjenje na pitanje
01:21
whether or not he should believe in God,
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trebamo li vjerovati u Boga
01:23
and his wager went like this:
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te njegova oklada glasi ovako:
01:25
Well, if God doesn't exist
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Ako Bog ne postoji,
01:28
but I decide to believe in him
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ali odlučim vjerovati u njega
01:30
nothing much is really lost.
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neću izgubiti mnogo.
01:32
Maybe a few hours on Sunday.
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Možda par sati nedjeljom.
01:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:35
But if he does exist and I don't believe in him,
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Ali ako On postoji i
ja ne vjerujem u njega,
ja ne vjerujem u njega,
01:38
then I'm in deep trouble.
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onda sam u nevolji.
01:40
And so Pascal said, we'd better believe in God.
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Pascal je zaključio da je bolje
da vjerujemo u Boga.
da vjerujemo u Boga.
01:43
Or as one of my college professors said,
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Ili kako je jedan od mojih
kolega profesora rekao,
kolega profesora rekao,
01:45
"He clutched for the handrail of faith."
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"Zgrabio se za ogradu vjere."
01:47
He made that leap of faith
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Napravio je iskorak u vjeri
01:49
leaving science and rationalism behind.
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ostavljajući znanost i
racionalizam iza sebe.
racionalizam iza sebe.
01:54
Now the fact is though, for most of us,
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Činjenica je za mnoge od nas
01:56
most scientific claims are a leap of faith.
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da su mnoge znanstvene
tvrdnje iskorak u vjeri.
tvrdnje iskorak u vjeri.
02:00
We can't really judge scientific
claims for ourselves in most cases.
claims for ourselves in most cases.
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Ne možemo sami prosuditi znanstvene
tvrdnje u većini slučajeva.
tvrdnje u većini slučajeva.
02:04
And indeed this is actually
true for most scientists as well
true for most scientists as well
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Ovo također vrijedi
za većinu znanstvenika
za većinu znanstvenika
02:07
outside of their own specialties.
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izvan okvira njihovih specijalnosti.
02:09
So if you think about it, a geologist can't tell you
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Ako bolje razmislimo,
geolog nam ne može reći
geolog nam ne može reći
02:12
whether a vaccine is safe.
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je li cijepljenje sigurno.
02:13
Most chemists are not experts in evolutionary theory.
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Većina kemičara nije
stručna u teoriji evolucije.
stručna u teoriji evolucije.
02:16
A physicist cannot tell you,
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Fizičar vam ne može reći,
02:19
despite the claims of some of them,
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unatoč tvrdnjama nekih
02:20
whether or not tobacco causes cancer.
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uzrokuje li pušenje rak.
02:24
So, if even scientists themselves
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Ako i sami znanstvenici
02:26
have to make a leap of faith
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moraju imati vjere
02:27
outside their own fields,
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izvan vlastitih područja
02:29
then why do they accept the
claims of other scientists?
claims of other scientists?
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zašto onda prihvaćaju
tvrdnje drugih znanstvenika?
tvrdnje drugih znanstvenika?
02:33
Why do they believe each other's claims?
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Zašto vjeruju tvrdnjama jedni drugih?
02:35
And should we believe those claims?
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Trebamo li vjerovati tim tvrdnjama?
02:39
So what I'd like to argue is yes, we should,
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Željela bih raspraviti
o tome da trebamo vjerovati
o tome da trebamo vjerovati
02:41
but not for the reason that most of us think.
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ali ne iz razloga što većina od nas misli.
02:44
Most of us were taught in school
that the reason we should
that the reason we should
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Većina je u školi učila
da su razlog zašto bismo trebali
da su razlog zašto bismo trebali
02:47
believe in science is because of the scientific method.
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vjerovati u znanost - znanstvene metode.
02:50
We were taught that scientists follow a method
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Učili su nas da se znanstvenici drže metoda
02:53
and that this method guarantees
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i da one jamče
02:55
the truth of their claims.
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istinitost njihovih tvrdnji.
02:57
The method that most of us were taught in school,
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Metoda koju je većina naučila u školi
03:01
we can call it the textbook method,
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zvat ćemo ju udžbenička metoda,
03:02
is the hypothetical deductive method.
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hipotetska deduktivna metoda.
03:05
According to the standard
model, the textbook model,
model, the textbook model,
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Prema standardnom
modelu, iz udžbenika,
modelu, iz udžbenika,
03:08
scientists develop hypotheses, they deduce
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znanstvenici razvijaju hipotezu, zaključuju
03:11
the consequences of those hypotheses,
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posljedice tih hipoteza
03:14
and then they go out into the world and they say,
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i zatim ih predstavljaju svijetu govoreći:
03:15
"Okay, well are those consequences true?"
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„Jesu li ovi zaključci istiniti?“
03:18
Can we observe them taking
place in the natural world?
place in the natural world?
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Možemo li ih promatrati
u sklopu stvarnog svijeta?
u sklopu stvarnog svijeta?
03:21
And if they are true, then the scientists say,
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Ako su istinite, znanstvenici će reći:
03:24
"Great, we know the hypothesis is correct."
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„Odlično, znamo da je hipoteza točna.“
03:27
So there are many famous examples in the history
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Postoje mnogi poznati
primjeri u povijesti znanosti
primjeri u povijesti znanosti
03:29
of science of scientists doing exactly this.
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o znanstvenicima
koji su napravili upravo to.
koji su napravili upravo to.
03:32
One of the most famous examples
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Jedan od najpoznatijih primjera
03:34
comes from the work of Albert Einstein.
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dolazi iz rada Alberta Einsteina.
03:36
When Einstein developed the
theory of general relativity,
theory of general relativity,
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Kada je Einstein formulirao
opću teoriju relativnosti
opću teoriju relativnosti
03:38
one of the consequences of his theory
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jedan od zaključaka njegove teorije
03:41
was that space-time wasn't just an empty void
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bio je da prostor-vrijeme
nisu samo praznina
nisu samo praznina
03:44
but that it actually had a fabric.
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već sadrži materiju.
03:45
And that that fabric was bent
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Ova je materija zakrivljena
03:47
in the presence of massive objects like the sun.
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u prisutnosti tijela
velike mase kao što je Sunce.
velike mase kao što je Sunce.
03:50
So if this theory were true then it meant that light
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Ako je ova teorija istinita
to bi značilo da svijetlost
to bi značilo da svijetlost
03:53
as it passed the sun
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kako putuje od Sunca
03:55
should actually be bent around it.
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bi trebala biti zakrivljena oko Sunca.
03:57
That was a pretty startling prediction
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To je bila zapanjujuća teorija
03:59
and it took a few years before scientists
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i trebalo je nekoliko
godina da znanstvenici
godina da znanstvenici
04:01
were able to test it
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budu u mogućnosti testirati ju,
04:03
but they did test it in 1919,
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učinili su to 1919.,
04:05
and lo and behold it turned out to be true.
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te se ispostavila istinitom.
04:07
Starlight actually does bend
as it travels around the sun.
as it travels around the sun.
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Zvjezdana svjetlost zavija
kako putuje oko Sunca.
kako putuje oko Sunca.
04:11
This was a huge confirmation of the theory.
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To je bila velika potvrda teoriji.
04:13
It was considered proof of the truth
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Smatrala se dokazom za istinitost
04:15
of this radical new idea,
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te radikalne nove ideje,
04:16
and it was written up in many newspapers
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i izašla je u mnogim novinama
04:18
around the globe.
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u cijelom svijetu.
04:21
Now, sometimes this theory or this model
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Ponekad se ova teorija ili ovaj model
04:23
is referred to as the deductive-nomological model,
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nazivaju deduktivno-nomologični model,
04:26
mainly because academics like
to make things complicated.
to make things complicated.
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ponajprije zato što znanstvenici vole
komplicirati stvari.
komplicirati stvari.
04:30
But also because in the ideal case, it's about laws.
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Ali i zato što je u idealnom
slučaju riječ o zakonu.
slučaju riječ o zakonu.
04:35
So nomological means having to do with laws.
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Nomologičan znači imati veze sa zakonom.
04:38
And in the ideal case, the hypothesis isn't just an idea:
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U idealnom slučaju,
hipoteza nije samo ideja
hipoteza nije samo ideja
04:41
ideally, it is a law of nature.
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nego i prirodni zakon.
04:43
Why does it matter that it is a law of nature?
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Zašto je bitno da je prirodni zakon?
04:46
Because if it is a law, it can't be broken.
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Jer ako je zakon, ne smije biti prekršen.
04:48
If it's a law then it will always be true
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Ako je zakon onda je uvijek istinit.
04:50
in all times and all places
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u svako doba i na svakom mjestu
04:52
no matter what the circumstances are.
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bez obzira na okolnosti.
04:54
And all of you know of at least
one example of a famous law:
one example of a famous law:
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Svi znate barem
jedan primjer poznatog zakona:
jedan primjer poznatog zakona:
04:57
Einstein's famous equation, E=MC2,
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Einsteinovu slavnu jednadžbu E=MC2,
05:01
which tells us what the relationship is
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koja nam pokazuje vezu
05:03
between energy and mass.
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između energije i mase.
05:05
And that relationship is true no matter what.
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A ta je veza istinita u svakom slučaju.
05:09
Now, it turns out, though, that there
are several problems with this model.
are several problems with this model.
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Ispostavilo se da postoji
nekoliko problema kod ovog modela.
nekoliko problema kod ovog modela.
05:13
The main problem is that it's wrong.
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Glavni problem je da je netočna.
05:16
It's just not true. (Laughter)
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Jednostavno nije istinita. (Smijeh)
05:20
And I'm going to talk about
three reasons why it's wrong.
three reasons why it's wrong.
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A ja ću ispričati
tri razloga zašto je netočna.
tri razloga zašto je netočna.
05:22
So the first reason is a logical reason.
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Prvi je razlog logičan.
05:25
It's the problem of the fallacy
of affirming the consequent.
of affirming the consequent.
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Problem je u pogrešci
potvrđivanja posljedičnog.
potvrđivanja posljedičnog.
05:29
So that's another fancy, academic way of saying
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To je maštoviti način,
akademski način da se kaže
akademski način da se kaže
05:31
that false theories can make true predictions.
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kako pogrešna teorija može
imati istinita predviđanja.
imati istinita predviđanja.
05:34
So just because the prediction comes true
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Samo zato što se predviđanje obistinilo
05:36
doesn't actually logically
prove that the theory is correct.
prove that the theory is correct.
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ne znači da logično
dokazuje ispravnost teorije.
dokazuje ispravnost teorije.
05:39
And I have a good example of that too,
again from the history of science.
again from the history of science.
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Imam za to dobar primjer,
ponovno iz povijesti znanosti.
ponovno iz povijesti znanosti.
05:43
This is a picture of the Ptolemaic universe
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Ovo je slika Ptolemejevog sustava
05:46
with the Earth at the center of the universe
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sa Zemljom u središtu svemira
05:48
and the sun and the planets going around it.
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te Suncem i planetima
koji se gibaju oko nje.
koji se gibaju oko nje.
05:50
The Ptolemaic model was believed
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U Ptolomejev su sustav vjerovali
05:52
by many very smart people for many centuries.
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mnogi učeni ljudi kroz stoljeća.
05:56
Well, why?
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Zašto?
05:57
Well the answer is because it made
lots of predictions that came true.
lots of predictions that came true.
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Odgovor je zato što je imao
mnoga predviđanja koja su se obistinila.
mnoga predviđanja koja su se obistinila.
06:01
The Ptolemaic system enabled astronomers
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Ptolemejev sustav omogućio je astronomima
06:03
to make accurate predictions
of the motions of the planet,
of the motions of the planet,
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da naprave točna predviđanja
o gibanjima planeta,
o gibanjima planeta,
06:06
in fact more accurate predictions at first
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isprva mnogo točnija predviđanja
06:08
than the Copernican theory
which we now would say is true.
which we now would say is true.
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od Kopernikove teorije
koju danas smatramo istinitom.
koju danas smatramo istinitom.
06:12
So that's one problem with the textbook model.
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To je jedan od problema udžbeničkog modela.
06:15
A second problem is a practical problem,
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Drugi problem je praktične prirode,
06:18
and it's the problem of auxiliary hypotheses.
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a to su pomoćne hipoteze.
06:21
Auxiliary hypotheses are assumptions
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Pomoćne su hipoteze pretpostavke
06:24
that scientists are making
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koje znanstvenici stvaraju
06:26
that they may or may not even
be aware that they're making.
be aware that they're making.
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a da ih jesu ili nisu
pri tom svjesni.
pri tom svjesni.
06:29
So an important example of this
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Jedan važan primjer ovoga
06:31
comes from the Copernican model,
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Kopernikov je model
06:33
which ultimately replaced the Ptolemaic system.
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koji je u konačnici
zamijenio Ptolomejev sustav.
zamijenio Ptolomejev sustav.
06:37
So when Nicolaus Copernicus said,
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Kada je Nikola Kopernik tvrdio,
06:39
actually the Earth is not the center of the universe,
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da Zemlja nije u središtu Svemira,
06:41
the sun is the center of the solar system,
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nego je Sunce u središtu Sunčeva sustava,
06:43
the Earth moves around the sun.
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a Zemlja kruži oko Sunca.
06:45
Scientists said, well okay, Nicolaus, if that's true
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Znanstvenici su smatrali
da ako je to istina
da ako je to istina
06:48
we ought to be able to detect the motion
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trebali bismo moći otkriti gibanje
06:50
of the Earth around the sun.
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Zemlje oko Sunca.
06:52
And so this slide here illustrates a concept
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Ovaj slajd ovdje prikazuje koncept
06:54
known as stellar parallax.
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poznat kao zvjezdana paralaksa.
06:56
And astronomers said, if the Earth is moving
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Znanstvenici su smatrali
da ako se Zemlja giba
da ako se Zemlja giba
07:00
and we look at a prominent star, let's say, Sirius --
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a mi promatramo istaknutu
zvijezdu, recimo, Sirius -
zvijezdu, recimo, Sirius -
07:03
well I know I'm in Manhattan
so you guys can't see the stars,
so you guys can't see the stars,
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2414
ja sam s Manhattana
pa ne vidim zvijezde
pa ne vidim zvijezde
07:05
but imagine you're out in the country,
imagine you chose that rural life —
imagine you chose that rural life —
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ail zamislite da ste na selu
da ste izabrali seoski život-
da ste izabrali seoski život-
07:09
and we look at a star in December, we see that star
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promatrate zvijezdu u prosincu te ju vidimo
07:12
against the backdrop of distant stars.
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naspram udaljenijih zvijezda u pozadini.
07:15
If we now make the same observation six months later
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Ako napravimo isto opažanje
šest mjeseci poslije
šest mjeseci poslije
07:18
when the Earth has moved to this position in June,
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kada se Zemlja pomaknula
u ovaj položaj u lipnju
u ovaj položaj u lipnju
07:22
we look at that same star and we
see it against a different backdrop.
see it against a different backdrop.
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promatramo tu istu zvijezdu
ali naspram drukčije pozadine.
ali naspram drukčije pozadine.
07:26
That difference, that angular
difference, is the stellar parallax.
difference, is the stellar parallax.
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Ova kutna razlika
naziva se zvjezdana paralaksa.
naziva se zvjezdana paralaksa.
07:30
So this is a prediction that the Copernican model makes.
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I to je predviđanje nastalo
na osnovi Kopernikova modela.
na osnovi Kopernikova modela.
07:33
Astronomers looked for the stellar parallax
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Astronomi u potrazi
za zvjezdanom paralaksom
za zvjezdanom paralaksom
07:35
and they found nothing, nothing at all.
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nisu pronašli ama baš ništa.
07:40
And many people argued that this proved
that the Copernican model was false.
that the Copernican model was false.
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Mnogi su ljudi tvrdili da ovo dokazuje
da je Kopernikov model netočan.
da je Kopernikov model netočan.
07:44
So what happened?
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Pa što se dogodilo?
07:46
Well, in hindsight we can say
that astronomers were making
that astronomers were making
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Gledajući unatrag možemo reći
da su astronomi stvarali
da su astronomi stvarali
07:48
two auxiliary hypotheses, both of which
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dvije pomoćne hipoteze, od kojih obje
07:51
we would now say were incorrect.
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danas smatramo netočnima.
07:53
The first was an assumption
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
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Prva je bila pretpostavka
o veličini Zemljine orbite.
o veličini Zemljine orbite.
07:57
Astronomers were assuming
that the Earth's orbit was large
that the Earth's orbit was large
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Astronomi su pretpostavljali
da je Zemljina orbita velika
da je Zemljina orbita velika
08:00
relative to the distance to the stars.
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s obzirom na udaljenost od zvijezda.
08:02
Today we would draw the picture more like this,
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Danas bismo nacrtali ovakvu sliku,
08:05
this comes from NASA,
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koja je iz NASE,
08:06
and you see the Earth's orbit is actually quite small.
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2423
i vidi se da je Zemljina orbita
zapravo vrlo mala.
zapravo vrlo mala.
08:09
In fact, it's actually much
smaller even than shown here.
smaller even than shown here.
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Ustvari mnogo manja
nego što je ovdje prikazano.
nego što je ovdje prikazano.
08:12
The stellar parallax therefore,
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1539
Stoga je zvjezdana paralaksa
08:13
is very small and actually very hard to detect.
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3584
vrlo mala i jako ju je teško otkriti.
08:17
And that leads to the second reason
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485297
1974
To vodi do drugog razloga
08:19
why the prediction didn't work,
181
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1859
zašto predviđanje nije uspjelo,
08:21
because scientists were also assuming
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1915
jer su znanstvenici također pretpostavljali
08:23
that the telescopes they had were sensitive enough
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491045
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da su teleskopi koje
posjeduju dovoljno osjetljivi
posjeduju dovoljno osjetljivi
08:26
to detect the parallax.
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494055
1900
da otkriju paralaksu.
08:27
And that turned out not to be true.
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495955
2017
To se ispostavilo netočnim.
08:29
It wasn't until the 19th century
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2534
Sve do devetnaestog stoljeća
08:32
that scientists were able to detect
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500506
1684
znanstvenici nisu mogli otkriti
08:34
the stellar parallax.
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1536
zvjezdanu paralaksu.
08:35
So, there's a third problem as well.
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2646
Stoga postoji i treći problem.
08:38
The third problem is simply a factual problem,
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2778
Treći je problem činjenične prirode,
08:41
that a lot of science doesn't fit the textbook model.
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2816
mnogo toga u znanosti ne prati udžbenik.
08:43
A lot of science isn't deductive at all,
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Većina toga u znanosti nije deduktivno,
08:46
it's actually inductive.
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514239
1768
nego je induktivno.
08:48
And by that we mean that scientists don't necessarily
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2516
Pri tome mislim da znanstvenici
ne moraju nužno
ne moraju nužno
08:50
start with theories and hypotheses,
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518523
2231
započeti s teorijama i hipotezama,
08:52
often they just start with observations
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520754
1869
ponekad počinju s opažanjima
08:54
of stuff going on in the world.
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522623
2409
stvari koje se događaju u svijetu.
08:57
And the most famous example
of that is one of the most
of that is one of the most
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Slavan primjer
za ovo je najpoznatiji
za ovo je najpoznatiji
08:59
famous scientists who ever lived, Charles Darwin.
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znanstvenik ikad, Charles Darwin.
09:02
When Darwin went out as a young
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
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530667
3162
Kada je Darwin kao mladić
otišao na putovanje brodom Beagle,
otišao na putovanje brodom Beagle,
09:05
he didn't have a hypothesis, he didn't have a theory.
201
533829
3612
nije imao hipotezu niti teoriju.
09:09
He just knew that he wanted
to have a career as a scientist
to have a career as a scientist
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3066
Znao je samo da želi
imati karijeru znanstvenika
imati karijeru znanstvenika
09:12
and he started to collect data.
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540507
2012
pa je počeo prikupljati podatke.
09:14
Mainly he knew that he hated medicine
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2730
Znao je da mrzi medicinu
09:17
because the sight of blood made him sick so
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545249
1818
jer mu je bilo mučno pri pogledu na krv
09:19
he had to have an alternative career path.
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2268
zato je trebao alternativnu karijeru.
09:21
So he started collecting data.
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2134
Počeo je prikupljati podatke.
09:23
And he collected many things,
including his famous finches.
including his famous finches.
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3166
Prikupio je mnogo toga
uključujući i poznate zebe.
uključujući i poznate zebe.
09:26
When he collected these finches,
he threw them in a bag
he threw them in a bag
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554635
2210
Nakon što ih je prikupio
stavio ih je u vreću
stavio ih je u vreću
09:28
and he had no idea what they meant.
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556845
2340
bez ideje što bi one mogle značiti.
09:31
Many years later back in London,
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2287
Nekoliko godina kasnije u Londonu
09:33
Darwin looked at his data again and began
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2233
Darwin je pregledao podatke ispočetka
09:35
to develop an explanation,
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2448
i razvio objašnjenje,
09:38
and that explanation was the
theory of natural selection.
theory of natural selection.
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3298
a to objašnjenje bila je
teorija prirodne selekcije.
teorija prirodne selekcije.
09:41
Besides inductive science,
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2059
Osim induktivne znanosti,
09:43
scientists also often participate in modeling.
216
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2936
znanstvenici se često koriste modeliranjem.
09:46
One of the things scientists want to do in life
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574446
2336
Jedna od stvari koje znanstvenici
žele raditi u životu
žele raditi u životu
09:48
is to explain the causes of things.
218
576782
2268
je objasniti uzroke stvari.
09:51
And how do we do that?
219
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1518
A kako to učiniti?
09:52
Well, one way you can do it is to build a model
220
580568
2252
Jedan je način izgraditi model
09:54
that tests an idea.
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582820
1742
za testiranje ideje.
09:56
So this is a picture of Henry Cadell,
222
584562
1931
Ovo je slika Henryja Cadella
09:58
who was a Scottish geologist in the 19th century.
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586493
2866
škotskog geologa iz 19. stoljeća.
10:01
You can tell he's Scottish because he's wearing
224
589359
1433
Vidi se da je Škot jer nosi
10:02
a deerstalker cap and Wellington boots.
225
590792
2388
lovačku kapu i gumene čizme.
10:05
(Laughter)
226
593180
2154
(Smijeh)
10:07
And Cadell wanted to answer the question,
227
595334
1566
Cadell je htio odgovoriti na pitanje
10:08
how are mountains formed?
228
596900
1768
kako nastaju planine?
10:10
And one of the things he had observed
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598668
1516
Jedna od stvari koje je uočio
10:12
is that if you look at mountains
like the Appalachians,
like the Appalachians,
230
600184
2574
jest da ako pogledamo planinu
kao što je Apalačko gorje
kao što je Apalačko gorje
10:14
you often find that the rocks in them
231
602758
1633
često se mogu pronaći stijene
10:16
are folded,
232
604391
1469
koje su oblikovane
10:17
and they're folded in a particular way,
233
605860
1646
na određen način
10:19
which suggested to him
234
607506
1444
što je predlagalo
10:20
that they were actually being
compressed from the side.
compressed from the side.
235
608950
2949
da su zapravo bile
komprimirane sa strane.
komprimirane sa strane.
10:23
And this idea would later play a major role
236
611899
2088
Ova ideja kasnije je imala veliku ulogu
10:25
in discussions of continental drift.
237
613987
2423
u raspravi o pomicanju kontinenata.
10:28
So he built this model, this crazy contraption
238
616410
2506
On je sagradio model, ludi izum
10:30
with levers and wood, and here's his wheelbarrow,
239
618916
2152
s polugama i drvima,
a evo i njegovih kolica,
a evo i njegovih kolica,
10:33
buckets, a big sledgehammer.
240
621068
2442
kanti i velikog čekića.
10:35
I don't know why he's got the Wellington boots.
241
623510
1898
Ne znam zašto nosi gumene čizme.
10:37
Maybe it's going to rain.
242
625408
1577
Možda će padati kiša.
10:38
And he created this physical model in order
243
626985
3085
Stvorio je fizički model kako bi
10:42
to demonstrate that you could, in fact, create
244
630070
3965
pokazao da možemo napraviti
10:46
patterns in rocks, or at least, in this case, in mud,
245
634035
2674
obrasce u stijenama ili
kao u ovom slucaju u blatu,
kao u ovom slucaju u blatu,
10:48
that looked a lot like mountains
246
636709
2226
koji su izgledali kao planine
10:50
if you compressed them from the side.
247
638935
1842
ako ih komprimiramo sa strane.
10:52
So it was an argument about
the cause of mountains.
the cause of mountains.
248
640777
3628
To je bio dokaz o
oblikovanju planina.
oblikovanju planina.
10:56
Nowadays, most scientists prefer to work inside,
249
644405
3048
Danas mnogi znanstvenici
vole raditi u zatvorenom,
vole raditi u zatvorenom,
10:59
so they don't build physical models so much
250
647453
2427
pa ne grade stvarne modele
11:01
as to make computer simulations.
251
649880
2361
nego računalne simulacije.
11:04
But a computer simulation is a kind of a model.
252
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2839
Ali računalne simulacije donekle su modeli.
11:07
It's a model that's made with mathematics,
253
655080
1863
Oni su izrađeni pomoću matematike,
11:08
and like the physical models of the 19th century,
254
656943
3233
te kao i stvarni modeli
iz devetnaestog stoljeća
iz devetnaestog stoljeća
11:12
it's very important for thinking about causes.
255
660176
3778
vrlo važni za razmišljanje o uzrocima.
11:15
So one of the big questions
to do with climate change,
to do with climate change,
256
663954
2615
Jedno od velikih nepoznanica
su klimatske promjene
su klimatske promjene
11:18
we have tremendous amounts of evidence
257
666569
1803
i imamo mnoštvo dokaza
11:20
that the Earth is warming up.
258
668372
1880
da se Zemlja zagrijava.
11:22
This slide here, the black line shows
259
670252
2464
Crna linija na slajdu pokazuje
11:24
the measurements that scientists have taken
260
672716
2120
mjerenja koja su znanstvenici dobili
11:26
for the last 150 years
261
674836
1963
u proteklih 150 godina
11:28
showing that the Earth's temperature
262
676799
1410
a pokazuju da se temperatura Zemlje
11:30
has steadily increased,
263
678209
1634
jednoliko povećava
11:31
and you can see in particular
that in the last 50 years
that in the last 50 years
264
679843
2846
i možemo vidjeti
da u posljednjih 50 godina
da u posljednjih 50 godina
11:34
there's been this dramatic increase
265
682689
1764
postoji dramatični porast
11:36
of nearly one degree centigrade,
266
684453
2340
od gotovo jednog Celzijevog stupnja,
11:38
or almost two degrees Fahrenheit.
267
686793
2375
ili skoro dva stupnja po Farenheitu.
11:41
So what, though, is driving that change?
268
689168
2437
Što pokreće tu promjenu?
11:43
How can we know what's causing
269
691605
2335
Kako možemo znati što uzrokuje
11:45
the observed warming?
270
693940
1516
primjetno zatopljenje?
11:47
Well, scientists can model it
271
695456
1714
Znanstvenici ovo mogu prikazati
11:49
using a computer simulation.
272
697170
2368
pomoću računalne simulacije.
11:51
So this diagram illustrates a computer simulation
273
699538
2792
Dijagram prikazuje računalnu simulaciju
11:54
that has looked at all the different factors
274
702330
2121
koja uzima u obzir različite faktore
11:56
that we know can influence the Earth's climate,
275
704451
2605
za koje znamo da utječu na klimu na Zemlji,
11:59
so sulfate particles from air pollution,
276
707056
2752
kao što su sulfati iz onečišćenog zraka,
12:01
volcanic dust from volcanic eruptions,
277
709808
2970
vulkanska prašina od vulkanskih erupcija,
12:04
changes in solar radiation,
278
712778
2234
promjene u Sunčevu zračenju,
12:07
and, of course, greenhouse gases.
279
715012
2378
i staklenički plinovi.
12:09
And they asked the question,
280
717390
1818
Postavilo se pitanje
12:11
what set of variables put into a model
281
719208
3696
koje će raspon varijabli stavljen u mdoel
12:14
will reproduce what we actually see in real life?
282
722904
2976
prikazati ono što vidimo u stvarnom životu?
12:17
So here is the real life in black.
283
725880
2020
Ovdje je stvarni život u crnoj boji.
12:19
Here's the model in this light gray,
284
727900
2280
A ovdje u svjetlo sivoj boji,
12:22
and the answer is
285
730180
1560
i odgovor je
12:23
a model that includes, it's the answer E on that SAT,
286
731740
4387
model koji uključuje je odgovor E na SAT-u,
12:28
all of the above.
287
736127
2141
sve navedeno.
12:30
The only way you can reproduce
288
738268
1506
Jedini je način na koji možemo prikazati
12:31
the observed temperature measurements
289
739774
1828
dobivena temperaturna mjerenja
12:33
is with all of these things put together,
290
741602
1978
ako promatramo zajedno sve navedeno,
12:35
including greenhouse gases,
291
743580
2139
uključujući i stakleničke plinove,
12:37
and in particular you can see that the increase
292
745719
2551
pa možemo vidjeti da porast
12:40
in greenhouse gases tracks
293
748270
1884
stakleničkih plinova prati
12:42
this very dramatic increase in temperature
294
750154
2206
dramatični porast temperature
12:44
over the last 50 years.
295
752360
1480
u posljednjih 50 godina.
12:45
And so this is why climate scientists say
296
753840
2434
Zato klimatolozi tvrde
12:48
it's not just that we know that
climate change is happening,
climate change is happening,
297
756274
3108
da nije samo da znamo
da se klimatske promjene događaju,
da se klimatske promjene događaju,
12:51
we know that greenhouse gases are a major part
298
759382
2768
već su staklenički plinovi uveliko
12:54
of the reason why.
299
762150
2730
razlog za ova zbivanja.
12:56
So now because there all these different things
300
764880
2388
Budući da postoje različite stvari
12:59
that scientists do,
301
767268
1489
kojima se znanstvenici bave,
13:00
the philosopher Paul Feyerabend famously said,
302
768757
3486
filozof Paul Feyerabend je rekao:
13:04
"The only principle in science
303
772243
1626
„Jedino načelo u znanosti
13:05
that doesn't inhibit progress is: anything goes."
304
773869
3979
koje ne koči napredak je: Sve je dopušteno.“
13:09
Now this quotation has often
been taken out of context,
been taken out of context,
305
777848
2616
Ovaj je citat često
bio uzet iz konteksta
bio uzet iz konteksta
13:12
because Feyerabend was not actually saying
306
780464
2118
jer Feyerabend nije želio reći
13:14
that in science anything goes.
307
782582
1950
da je u znanosti sve dopušteno.
13:16
What he was saying was,
308
784532
1344
Želio je zapravo reći,
13:17
actually the full quotation is,
309
785876
2024
cijeli citat ide ovako:
13:19
"If you press me to say
310
787900
2090
„Ako me natjerate da kažem
13:21
what is the method of science,
311
789990
1646
koja je znanstvena metoda
13:23
I would have to say: anything goes."
312
791636
3629
ja bih rekao: sve je dopušteno.““
13:27
What he was trying to say
313
795265
1078
Želio je reći
13:28
is that scientists do a lot of different things.
314
796343
2567
Da znanstvenici rade različite stvari.
13:30
Scientists are creative.
315
798910
2308
Znanstvenici su kreativni.
13:33
But then this pushes the question back:
316
801218
2110
Ovo povlači za sobom pitanje:
13:35
If scientists don't use a single method,
317
803328
3471
Ako znanstvenici ne koriste
jedinstvenu metodu
jedinstvenu metodu
13:38
then how do they decide
318
806799
1899
kako onda odlučuju
13:40
what's right and what's wrong?
319
808698
1458
Što je točno, a što ne?
13:42
And who judges?
320
810156
1894
Tko odlučuje?
13:44
And the answer is, scientists judge,
321
812050
2080
Odgovor je, znanstvenici odlučuju
13:46
and they judge by judging evidence.
322
814130
2883
na temelju procjene dokaza.
13:49
Scientists collect evidence in many different ways,
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817013
3409
Znanstvenici prikupljaju
dokaze na različite načine,
dokaze na različite načine,
13:52
but however they collect it,
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820422
1622
ali kako god ih prikupili,
13:54
they have to subject it to scrutiny.
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2577
podvrgavaju ih temeljitom ispitivanju.
13:56
And this led the sociologist Robert Merton
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2560
Ovo je navelo sociologa Roberta Mertona
13:59
to focus on this question of how scientists
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2180
da se usredotoči na pitanje
kako znanstvenici
kako znanstvenici
14:01
scrutinize data and evidence,
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829361
1679
ispituju podatke i dokaze
14:03
and he said they do it in a way he called
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831040
2808
a to rade na način koji se zove
14:05
"organized skepticism."
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1919
„organizirani skepticizam“.
14:07
And by that he meant it's organized
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835767
1884
Smatrao je to organiziranim
14:09
because they do it collectively,
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837651
1478
jer znanstvenici to rade zajedno
14:11
they do it as a group,
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839129
1629
kao grupa
14:12
and skepticism, because they do it from a position
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840758
2816
i skeptično, jer tome pristupaju
14:15
of distrust.
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1454
s nepovjerenjem.
14:17
That is to say, the burden of proof
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845028
1962
To znači da je težina dokaza
14:18
is on the person with a novel claim.
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2481
na osobi s novim tvrdnjama.
14:21
And in this sense, science
is intrinsically conservative.
is intrinsically conservative.
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849471
3143
U tom smislu je znanost
u suštini konzervativna.
u suštini konzervativna.
14:24
It's quite hard to persuade the scientific community
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2572
Teško je uvjeriti znanstvenu zajednicu
14:27
to say, "Yes, we know something, this is true."
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855186
3711
da kaže:
„Da, znamo nešto i to je istinito.“
„Da, znamo nešto i to je istinito.“
14:30
So despite the popularity of the concept
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2496
Unatoč popularnosti koncepta
14:33
of paradigm shifts,
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1597
o radikalnim promjenama mišljenja
14:34
what we find is that actually,
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862990
1284
ipak uočavamo da su
14:36
really major changes in scientific thinking
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2785
vrlo velike promjene
u znanstvenom mišljenju
u znanstvenom mišljenju
14:39
are relatively rare in the history of science.
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3720
relativno rijetke u povijesti znanosti.
14:42
So finally that brings us to one more idea:
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870779
3563
To nas u konačnici vodi do sljedećeg:
14:46
If scientists judge evidence collectively,
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874342
3708
Ako znanstvenici
kolektivno prosuđuju dokaze,
kolektivno prosuđuju dokaze,
14:50
this has led historians to focus on the question
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878050
2562
to dovodi povjesničare na pitanje
14:52
of consensus,
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880612
1419
postojanja konsenzusa,
14:54
and to say that at the end of the day,
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882031
1895
a na kraju i tvrdnje
14:55
what science is,
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883926
1934
da je znanost,
14:57
what scientific knowledge is,
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885860
1670
i znanstvena spoznaja
14:59
is the consensus of the scientific experts
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3379
jednoglasna odluka znanstvenih stručnjaka,
15:02
who through this process of organized scrutiny,
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890909
2154
koji kroz proces temeljitog proučavanja,
15:05
collective scrutiny,
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893063
2305
zajedničkog promatranja,
15:07
have judged the evidence
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895368
1242
procjenjuju dokaze
15:08
and come to a conclusion about it,
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896610
2797
i dolaze do zaključka o tome
15:11
either yea or nay.
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899407
2477
je li nešto jest ili nije.
15:13
So we can think of scientific knowledge
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901884
1724
Stoga znanstveno mišljenje možemo shvatiti
15:15
as a consensus of experts.
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903608
2052
kao jednoglasnu odluku stručnjaka.
15:17
We can also think of science as being
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905660
1772
Također možemo promatrati znanost
15:19
a kind of a jury,
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907432
1578
kao neku vrstu porote,
15:21
except it's a very special kind of jury.
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909010
2514
osim sto je to posebna vrsta porote.
15:23
It's not a jury of your peers,
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911524
2104
To nije porota vaših vršnjaka,
15:25
it's a jury of geeks.
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913628
1896
nego porota štrebera.
15:27
It's a jury of men and women with Ph.D.s,
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915524
3634
Porota muškaraca i žena s doktoratom,
15:31
and unlike a conventional jury,
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919158
2442
i za razliku od uobičajene porote,
15:33
which has only two choices,
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921600
1690
koja ima samo dva izbora
15:35
guilty or not guilty,
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923290
2685
kriv ili nije kriv,
15:37
the scientific jury actually has a number of choices.
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925975
3401
znanstvena porota ima brojne izbore.
15:41
Scientists can say yes, something's true.
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929376
2784
Znanstvenici mogu reći
da je nešto istinito.
da je nešto istinito.
15:44
Scientists can say no, it's false.
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932160
2580
Ili mogu reći da je to neistinito.
15:46
Or, they can say, well it might be true
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934740
2540
Ili da je to možda istinito
15:49
but we need to work more
and collect more evidence.
and collect more evidence.
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937280
3044
Ali potrebno je još posla
i prikupiti više dokaza.
i prikupiti više dokaza.
15:52
Or, they can say it might be true,
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940324
1616
I mogu reći da je nešto možda istinito,
15:53
but we don't know how to answer the question
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941940
1700
ali se ne zna odgovor na pitanje
15:55
and we're going to put it aside
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943640
1310
pa će se ostaviti sa strane
15:56
and maybe we'll come back to it later.
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944950
2923
i vratiti se tomu kasnije.
15:59
That's what scientists call "intractable."
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947873
4002
Za to znanstvenici
kažu da je beskompromisno.
kažu da je beskompromisno.
16:03
But this leads us to one final problem:
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951875
2606
Ovo nas vodi do zadnjeg problema:
16:06
If science is what scientists say it is,
381
954481
2938
Ako je znanost ono
što znanstvenici kažu da je,
što znanstvenici kažu da je,
16:09
then isn't that just an appeal to authority?
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957419
2541
nije li to onda poziv na autoritet?
16:11
And weren't we all taught in school
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959960
1062
Nisu li nas u školi učili
16:13
that the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy?
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961022
3227
da je poziv na autoritet logična pogreška?
16:16
Well, here's the paradox of modern science,
385
964249
3032
Ovdje stoji paradoks moderne znanosti,
16:19
the paradox of the conclusion I think historians
386
967281
2272
paradoks zaključka do kojeg su došli
16:21
and philosophers and sociologists have come to,
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969553
2601
povjesničari,filozofi i sociolozi,
16:24
that actually science is the appeal to authority,
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972154
3501
da je znanost pozivanje na autoritet,
16:27
but it's not the authority of the individual,
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975655
3776
ali ne autoritet pojedinca
16:31
no matter how smart that individual is,
390
979431
2399
bez obzira koliko pametan bio
16:33
like Plato or Socrates or Einstein.
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981830
3865
Kao Platon, Sokrat ili Einstein.
16:37
It's the authority of the collective community.
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985695
3114
Ona je autoritet cijele zajednice.
16:40
You can think of it is a kind of wisdom of the crowd,
393
988809
2986
Zamislite to kao
neku vrstu mudrosti gomile,
neku vrstu mudrosti gomile,
16:43
but a very special kind of crowd.
394
991795
4126
ali vrlo posebne gomile.
16:47
Science does appeal to authority,
395
995921
1890
Znanost se poziva na autoritet
16:49
but it's not based on any individual,
396
997811
2050
ali se ne temelji na pojedincu
16:51
no matter how smart that individual may be.
397
999861
2586
bez obzira koliko on bio pametan.
16:54
It's based on the collective wisdom,
398
1002447
1751
Temelji se na zajedničkoj mudrosti
16:56
the collective knowledge, the collective work,
399
1004198
2642
kolektivnom znanju i radu
16:58
of all of the scientists who have worked
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1006840
1898
svih znanstvenika koji su radili
17:00
on a particular problem.
401
1008738
2717
na određenom problemu.
17:03
Scientists have a kind of culture of collective distrust,
402
1011455
2796
Znanstvenici imaju neku
vrstu kolektivnog nepovjerenja,
vrstu kolektivnog nepovjerenja,
17:06
this "show me" culture,
403
1014251
2200
"pokaži mi" kulturu,
17:08
illustrated by this nice woman here
404
1016451
1950
prikazana ovom ženom
17:10
showing her colleagues her evidence.
405
1018401
3082
koja pokazuje kolegama svoje dokaze.
17:13
Of course, these people don't
really look like scientists,
really look like scientists,
406
1021483
1857
Ovi ljudi, naravno,
ne izgledaju kao znanstvenici
ne izgledaju kao znanstvenici
17:15
because they're much too happy.
407
1023340
1986
Jer izgledaju previše sretno.
17:17
(Laughter)
408
1025326
4012
(Smijeh)
17:21
Okay, so that brings me to my final point.
409
1029338
4322
Ovo me vodi do konačnog zaključka.
17:25
Most of us get up in the morning.
410
1033660
2648
Mnogi od nas ustaju ujutro.
17:28
Most of us trust our cars.
411
1036308
1410
Vjeruju svojim autima.
17:29
Well, see, now I'm thinking, I'm in Manhattan,
412
1037718
1542
Kad razmislimo o tome, ja sam s Manhattana,
17:31
this is a bad analogy,
413
1039260
1298
ovo je loša analogija,
17:32
but most Americans who don't live in Manhattan
414
1040558
2824
ali mnogi Amerikanci koji nisu s Manhattana
17:35
get up in the morning and get in their cars
415
1043382
1738
ustaju ujutro i ulaze u auto
17:37
and turn on that ignition, and their cars work,
416
1045120
2529
upale auto i on radi
17:39
and they work incredibly well.
417
1047649
2001
Nevjerojatno dobro.
17:41
The modern automobile hardly ever breaks down.
418
1049650
2715
Moderni se automobili rijetko kada pokvare
17:44
So why is that? Why do cars work so well?
419
1052365
2783
Zašto je to tako?
Zašto auti rade tako dobro?
Zašto auti rade tako dobro?
17:47
It's not because of the genius of Henry Ford
420
1055148
2504
To nije zbog genijalnosti Henryja Forda
17:49
or Karl Benz or even Elon Musk.
421
1057652
3091
Karla Benza ili Elona Muska.
17:52
It's because the modern automobile
422
1060743
2142
Nago zato što su moderni automobili
17:54
is the product of more than 100 years of work
423
1062885
5034
proizvod više od sto godina rada
17:59
by hundreds and thousands
424
1067919
1590
stotina i tisuća
18:01
and tens of thousands of people.
425
1069509
1336
pa i desetaka tisuća ljudi.
18:02
The modern automobile is the product
426
1070845
2111
Moderni je automobil proizvod
18:04
of the collected work and wisdom and experience
427
1072956
2789
zajedničkog rada, znanja i iskustva
18:07
of every man and woman who has ever worked
428
1075745
2347
svakog muškarca i žene koji je ikad radio
18:10
on a car,
429
1078092
1608
na autu,
18:11
and the reliability of the technology is the result
430
1079700
2915
a pouzdanost tehnologije rezultat je
18:14
of that accumulated effort.
431
1082615
2683
zajedničkog truda.
18:17
We benefit not just from the genius of Benz
432
1085298
2857
Ne profitiramo samo od genijalnosti Benza
18:20
and Ford and Musk
433
1088155
1066
Forda i Muska,
18:21
but from the collective intelligence and hard work
434
1089221
2768
nego i zajedničke
inteligencije i teškog rada
inteligencije i teškog rada
18:23
of all of the people who have worked
435
1091989
2251
svih ljudi koji su ikad radili
18:26
on the modern car.
436
1094240
1670
na modernom autu.
18:27
And the same is true of science,
437
1095910
2050
Isto vrijedi i za znanost,
18:29
only science is even older.
438
1097960
2844
samo što je puno starija.
18:32
Our basis for trust in science is actually the same
439
1100804
2574
Temelj povjerenja u znanost kao i
18:35
as our basis in trust in technology,
440
1103378
2674
temelj povejerenja u tehnologiju,
18:38
and the same as our basis for trust in anything,
441
1106052
3987
ali i temelj vjerovanja svemu ostalome
18:42
namely, experience.
442
1110039
2278
je iskustvo.
18:44
But it shouldn't be blind trust
443
1112317
1844
To ne bi trebalo biti slijepo vjerovanje
18:46
any more than we would have blind trust in anything.
444
1114161
2760
kao ni slijepo vjerovanje u bilo što
18:48
Our trust in science, like science itself,
445
1116921
2841
Povjerenje u znanost kao znanost po sebi
18:51
should be based on evidence,
446
1119762
1913
trebalo bi biti utemeljeno na dokazu
18:53
and that means that scientists
447
1121675
1502
a to znači da bi znanstvenici
18:55
have to become better communicators.
448
1123177
2048
trebali postati bolji komunikatori.
18:57
They have to explain to us not just what they know
449
1125225
2887
Trebali bi objašnjavati
ne samo ono što znaju
ne samo ono što znaju
19:00
but how they know it,
450
1128112
1728
nego i kako to znaju
19:01
and it means that we have
to become better listeners.
to become better listeners.
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1129840
3890
što znači da mi trebamo
postati bolji slušatelji.
postati bolji slušatelji.
19:05
Thank you very much.
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1133730
1419
Hvala lijepa.
19:07
(Applause)
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1135149
2303
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of scienceNaomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial.
Why you should listen
Noami Oreskes is a professor of the History of Science and an affiliated professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. She received her PhD at Stanford in 1990 in the Graduate Special Program in Geological Research and History of Science.
In her 2004 paper published in Science, "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Oreskes analyzed nearly 1,000 scientific journals to directly assess the magnitude of scientific consensus around anthropogenic climate change. The paper was famously cited by Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth and led Oreskes to testify in front of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.
Oreskes is the co-author of the 2010 book Merchants of Doubt, which looks at how the tobacco industry attempted to cast doubt on the link between smoking and lung cancer, and the 2014 book The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future, which looks back at the present from the year 2093. Both are written with Erik M. Conway.
Naomi Oreskes | Speaker | TED.com