19:12
TED2003

Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor for the web's future

ジェフ・ベゾス:次のウェブ・イノベーション

Filmed:

インターネット・バブルとその崩壊はよくゴールドラッシュと比べられます。 しかし、アマゾンドットコムの創設者であるジェフ・ベゾスは電気産業の初期の方が比較の対象になると論じます。

- Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio

When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.
テクノロジーや回復力は 想像するよりずっと簡単です
00:26
You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,
他の講演者の皆さんも
00:29
who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,
骨が折れることを話題にされるようですが
00:32
and, of course, with technology it never is.
テクノロジーがあれば別です
00:35
So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.
比較的 返り咲くことはとても簡単です
00:37
I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,
インターネットで何が起こったかを見てみると
00:41
with such an incredible last half a dozen years,
ここ6年間で驚くべきことが数々起こったため
00:43
that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.
たとえ話として例を挙げるのも難しい
00:47
A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things
決断の仕方 物事への反応の仕方
00:50
and what we're supposed to expect about the future
未来への展望の多くは
00:54
depends on how we bucket things
私たちがものごとを列挙し
00:56
and how we categorize them.
分類する方法により決まります
00:58
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust
インターネットの栄枯盛衰のもっともらしい比較対象として
00:59
that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.
ゴールドラッシュが挙げられます
01:03
It's easy to think of this analogy as very different
他の例を挙げる方もいるでしょうが
01:07
from some of the other things you might pick.
ネット・ブームもゴールドラッシュも
01:10
For one thing, both were very real.
現実の出来事です
01:12
In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million
1849年におこったゴールドラッシュは 7億ドル相当の金が
01:14
worth of gold out of California. It was very real.
カリフォルニアから採掘されました
01:18
The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to
インターネットも現実的な
01:20
communicate with each other. It's a big deal.
人々のコミュニュケーション手段として
01:24
Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.
壮大なブームを巻き起こし その後 派手に崩壊しました
01:27
You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.
どちらもたくさんの詐欺により左右されました
01:31
I don't have to remind you of all the hype
どんな詐欺があったか言わなくてもご存じですね
01:34
that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
金持ちになろうドットコム などです
01:37
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."
ゴールドラッシュの時も「金 金 金」と見出しが載り
01:40
Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.
「蒸気船ポートランドに68人の金持ちが積み重なった金塊を持ち乗船」
01:43
Some have 5,000. Many have more.
「ほとんどが5千ドル相当以上の金を発掘し
01:47
A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.
10万ドル相当を持ち出した者も」
01:50
People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.
といった記事を読んで人々は興奮したのです
01:54
"The Eldorado of the United States of America:
「米国にも黄金の国 エルドラド発見」
01:57
the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."
「尽きることのない金鉱がカリフォルニアに」といった具合です
02:00
And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.
ゴールドラッシュとインターネットバブルの比較は鮮明です
02:06
So many people left what they were doing.
たくさんの人々が仕事を放り出し
02:10
And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
ゴールドラッシュは何年も続きました
02:13
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,
初めてニュースが東海岸に広まった1849年には
02:16
they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."
誰もそんな話を信じませんでした
02:20
But they keep hearing about people getting rich,
そして1年経った1850年にも次々に金持ちが生まれる話が
02:22
and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.
まだ信じられませんでした
02:25
By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth
3年後の1852年には 自分がカリフォルニアに
02:28
by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.
繰り出さなかった愚かさに気づき
02:33
These are community affairs, by the way.
東海岸の町ぐるみで
02:37
Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams
10~20人ずつのチームをつくり
02:39
of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,
会社を設立して
02:42
and they would form companies.
アメリカ大陸を横断したのです
02:45
These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,
ほとんどがグループで旅に出たのです
02:47
if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,
弁護士であろうが銀行員であろうが
02:50
no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
どんな技能を持っていようが職を離れて金を掘り起こしに行ったのです
02:53
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,
コール医師もそんなひとりです
02:57
he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.
フィラデルフィアからパナマ経由で
03:00
They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,
地峡を超えて船に乗り
03:03
and then take another ship north.
北に向かったのです
03:06
This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.
トーランド医師は 幌馬車を使いました
03:08
This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.
ふたりとも名医であったにも関わらず
03:13
These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,
患者を残して カリフォルニアを
03:17
a surgeon in the other.
目指したのです
03:19
Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.
同じようにネット・バブルではドクター・クープドットコムが出現しています
03:20
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
03:24
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.
ゴールドラッシュに 人々は船から飛び降りるように殺到しました
03:25
The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak
サンフランシスコ港には 金を探しに行った乗務員が乗り捨てた船が
03:28
because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon
ピーク時には 600隻も
03:35
to go search for gold.
溢れました
03:37
So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.
残された600人の船長は
03:39
They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.
船をホテルにせざるを得なくなったそうです
03:43
You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.
ゴールド熱と同様にドットコム熱も
03:46
And you saw some of the excesses
同じような
03:51
that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.
行き過ぎた行動を生みました
03:53
The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.
サンフランシスコの砦には1300人の兵士がいたのですが
03:57
Half of them deserted to go look for gold.
その半数が職務を放棄し金を探しに行ったのです
04:01
And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half
そしてミイラ取りがミイラになるのを恐れて
04:05
because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
連れ戻す命令はなかったそうです
04:08
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
04:10
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:
兵士が家族に宛てた手紙に
04:12
"The struggle between right and six dollars a month
「金が掘り当てられるかどうかで
04:15
and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."
月給6ドルと日給75ドルの差は厳しい」と書かれています
04:19
They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.
ゴールドラッシュにより燃え尽きる割合は非常に高かったのです
04:27
This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.
これはクロンダイク金鉱へ続くホワイト峠の道です
04:31
They loaded up their mules and their horses.
ラバや馬に重量オーバーになる程 荷物を積んで
04:35
And they didn't plan right.
きちんとした計画もなく
04:39
And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,
どこまで行けばよいか当てもないまま
04:43
and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.
荷物の積みすぎでほとんどの馬は
04:46
In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died
目的地にたどり着く前に
04:50
before they could get where they were going.
死んでしまったことから
04:54
It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
「死に馬の道」と呼ばれるようになりました
04:56
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:
カナダの内務大臣はこう書いたそうです
04:58
"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,
「荷馬が数千頭も死んで倒れている
05:02
sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,
崖の上から落ち 群れなして
05:05
with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,
荷鞍をつけたまま
05:07
sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes
泥の中にお互いもつれ合って
05:11
and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,
まだ死んでなくとも 息も絶え絶えだ
05:14
often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,
こんなひどい状況はあまり知らされていないが
05:17
a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches
カラスに眼をえぐり取られて
05:21
turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.
眼窩から眼がなくなった
05:24
The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere
馬の死骸に
05:27
account for the myriads of ravens along the road.
数えきれないカラスが群がっている
05:29
The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,
この「死に馬の道」の残酷な光景は
05:32
the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,
想像を絶するもので
05:34
cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."
言葉にはできません」
05:37
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,
臭いがないだけで インターネットも同様に
05:42
we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.
燃焼割合は良くありません
05:47
I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.
皆さんの記憶に新しいコマーシャルをお見せしましょう
05:52
This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
これは2000年のスーパーボウルの間に放映されたコマーシャルです
05:55
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.
「たくさんの招待状が選べると言ったじゃないの」「その通りですが...」
05:59
Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?
「じゃあなぜこの人が私の招待状を持っているの」
06:03
Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.
「取るに足らない事と思われますが...」「あなたは私のものよ」
06:06
Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?
「皆さんには重大事かも」「この人あなたの奥さん?」
06:11
Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.
「15分後にはね」「一生に一度の一日なのです」
06:15
OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.
「私たちのスタートドットコム イベントを世界に伝えよう」
06:23
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
このコマーシャルが何のためのものかよくわかりません
06:26
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
06:30
But they spent three and a half million dollars
スーパーボウルの間に放映されるコマーシャルなので
06:33
in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,
この会社は350万ドルこれにつぎ込んだのです
06:35
even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.
当時のこの会社の歳入は100万ドルしかなかったにも関わらずです
06:38
Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,
ここでゴールドラッシュとネット・バブルの比較が
06:44
and I think rather severely.
かなり食い違ってきます
06:48
And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.
ゴールドラッシュの場合 金が底をつけばそれで終わりです
06:50
Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson
ドーソンには ひどく失望した男が
06:54
at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.
現時点でたくさんいる
06:57
They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,
数千マイルも自分の命 健康 そして財産も脅かす危ない旅をして
06:59
spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform
何ヶ月もの厳しく骨の折れる労働の末
07:04
and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch
切望してきた最後のゴール地点で
07:07
have reached the coveted goal only to discover
期待が頂点に上り詰めた時に
07:10
the fact that there is nothing here for them."
実は何も残っていなかったことに気づかされたのです
07:12
And that was, of course, the very common story.
勿論 これはよくある話です
07:16
Because when you take out that last piece of gold --
最後の金塊を掘り出した後に
07:19
and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --
1849年のゴールドラッシュを見ればわかるように
07:21
the entire American river region, within two years --
アメリカの河川領域にある石が
07:26
every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies
2年の間にすべて裏返され
07:29
who used more sophisticated mining technologies
その後 洗練された採鉱技術を持つ
07:33
started to take gold out of there.
大会社が採掘を始めたのです
07:35
So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic
ですからゴールドラッシュよりはるかに楽観的になれる
07:38
and that analogy is the electric industry.
比較の対象は電気産業です
07:44
And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.
インターネットと電気産業のあゆみの間には多くの共通点があります
07:49
With the electric industry you actually have to --
電気産業は
07:53
one of them is that they're both sort of thin,
小さな横のつながりで形成された
07:56
horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.
色々な産業の層からなり
07:58
It's not a specific thing.
単体からなるものではありません
08:01
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.
電気は大変幅広いため的を絞らなければいけません
08:05
You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.
電力を供給する素晴らしい手段でありながら
08:10
It's an incredible means of coordinating,
声を伝達できる電話のような
08:14
in a very fine-grained way, information flows.
きめ細かい情報まで伝達できるのです
08:16
There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.
電気には面白い側面があります
08:18
And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on
電気産業で起こった革命の中で今日お話ししたいのは
08:21
is sort of the golden age of appliances.
電化製品の黄金時代に
08:26
The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.
世界を電化製品の導入に乗り気にさせた製品は電球でした
08:29
So the light bulb is what wired the world.
電球が世界の回線を結んだのです
08:34
And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.
もともと電気の回線を引く際に 誰も
08:36
They were really thinking about --
電化製品のことは考えておらず
08:40
they weren't putting electricity into the home;
電力を家庭に普及させるというより
08:42
they were putting lighting into the home.
電球がメインだったのです
08:44
And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
ですからご想像どおり
08:47
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.
莫大な資産が投じられました
08:51
All the streets had to be torn up.
すべての道が掘り起こされ
08:55
This is work going on down in lower Manhattan
最初の発電所が建設された
08:58
where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.
マンハッタン南端部の様子です
09:02
And they're tearing up all the streets.
道を掘り起こしている様子です
09:06
The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,
エジソン電気照明がエジソン総合電気と社名を変え
09:08
which became General Electric,
後のゼネラル・エレクトリックの基礎となり
09:11
paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.
大変費用がかかる道路の掘り起こし作業に経費を出しました
09:13
But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.
しかし そこがインターネットとの共通点ではありません
09:19
Because, remember, the Web got to stand
ご存じのようにネットは
09:26
on top of all this heavy infrastructure
長距離電話回線用の
09:28
that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.
ネットワークを基盤に構築されました
09:30
So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --
インターネットブームが起きた1994年
09:33
I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,
ネットは年間2300%の割合で
09:36
when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.
急成長しました
09:40
How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994
ネットへの投資が盛んでなかったときに
09:42
when people weren't really investing in the Web?
どうやって2300%もの割合で成長を遂げられたのでしょうか?
09:45
Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
なぜなら広範囲にわたるインフラが既に構築されていたからです
09:48
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,
電球が そのインフラを構築させたのです
09:52
and then home appliances started coming into being.
そして家電製品が普及し始め
09:55
And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --
大きなセンセーションを巻き起こしたのです
09:58
this was the 1890 electric fan.
最初のセンセーションは1890年に世に出たこの扇風機です
10:01
And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --
こういった電化製品の黄金時代はかなりの間 続いたのです
10:04
it depends how you want to measure it --
どのようにその期間を測るかにもよりますが
10:08
but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.
40~60年間は続いたといえます
10:10
It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.
1890年ごろ世に紹介されたこの扇風機は大変な成功をおさめました
10:13
The electric iron, also very big.
そしてアイロンです これも大ヒットしました
10:19
By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
ちなみに これが最初のアスベスト訴訟の始まりです
10:22
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
10:26
There's asbestos under that handle there.
取っ手の内側にアスベストが使われていたのです
10:27
This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,
これが1905年にフーバー社から発表された最初の掃除機 スキナー・バキュームで
10:32
from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds
42kgもの重量があり2人がかりで動かさねばならず
10:35
and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.
自動車の1/4ほどの価格で売られていました
10:40
So it wasn't a big seller.
当然 あまり売れませんでした
10:45
This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --
これぞ家電製品の元祖です
10:47
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
10:51
the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.
1905年のスキナー・バキュームは
10:52
But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.
3年後の1908年には軽量化され18kgになったそうです
10:54
Now, not all these things were highly successful.
こういった家電製品は皆ヒット商品ではありませんでした
10:59
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
11:03
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.
皆ネクタイにシワがよらないように気をつけたせいか
11:05
People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.
ネクタイのプレス機は
11:08
These never really caught on either:
一度もヒットしませんでした
11:15
the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.
これは靴のドライヤー兼ウォーマーです
11:17
This came in, like, six different colors.
6色から選べるのに売れませんでした
11:21
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
11:23
I don't know why. But I thought, you know,
どうしてでしょう
11:25
sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;
時には発明にも時期があります
11:28
maybe it's time to give this one another shot.
今がその時かも知れません
11:32
So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.
スーパーボウルのコマーシャルを
11:35
We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --
適切なパートナーと作ったら
11:39
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
11:43
I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.
今度はヒットするかも知れません
11:45
Now, the toaster was huge
トースターも大きな話題を呼びました
11:49
because they used to make toast on open fires,
直火でパンを焼いたからです
11:51
and it took a lot of time and attention.
もちろん 時間も労力もずいぶんかかりました
11:54
I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.
ここでひとつ質問です 皆さんこれが何かご存じでしょう
11:56
They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.
まだ電球が挿入されるソケットは発明されていませんでした
12:02
So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.
当時 電気の回路は家庭に普及していなかったのです
12:05
They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.
照明用の配線が施され家電がプラグで接続されました
12:08
They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.
どの家庭にも天井に電球用のソケットがありました
12:12
And you'd plug it in there.
そしてそこへ家電を接続したのです
12:15
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World,
ディズニーワールドのカルーセル・オブ・プログレスを
12:17
you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.
ご覧になったことがあれば これが何かわかるでしょう
12:20
All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb
そこの電球を外して
12:24
if you wanted to plug in an appliance.
家電を接続したのです
12:28
The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.
次に大きな注目を集めたのは洗濯機でした
12:30
Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.
洗濯機は羨望の的でした
12:35
Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.
皆 洗濯機が欲しくてたまらなかったのです
12:38
On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.
左側にせっけん水が入ります
12:41
And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.
そして回転するモーターがあり
12:43
And it would clean your clothes.
洗濯物をきれいにしたのです
12:45
This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here,
洗濯物を取り出してすすぎ用のきれいな水の入った
12:47
put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric ringer.
ドラムへ入れ 脱水機にかけるのです
12:50
And this was a big deal.
それが大きな話題を呼んだのです
12:54
You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.
それを玄関先に置いたので少々景観を損ねるだけでなく
12:56
And you'd run a long cord into the house
長いコードを家の中まで
13:00
where you could screw it into your light socket.
引いて来なければならなかったので大変でした
13:03
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
13:06
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation,
このプレゼンの重要な論点のひとつは
13:07
because they hadn't invented the off switch.
「停止」ボタンがまだ発明されていなかったことです
13:10
That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances --
家電の「停止」ボタンはずいぶん後になって世に出たのです
13:14
because it didn't make any sense.
電球を接続する
13:17
I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.
ソケットをいっぱいにしたくなかったので
13:19
So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.
洗濯機を使い終わるとプラグからはずしたので
13:22
That's what you did. You didn't turn it off.
「停止」ボタンは必要なかったのです
13:25
And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either,
コンセントもまだ発明されていなかったので
13:27
so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device.
洗濯機は危険を伴う
13:31
And there are --
製品のひとつでした
13:34
when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions
髪の毛や衣服が挟まっても
13:36
of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices.
コードをすぐに抜いて機械を止められなかったので
13:39
And they couldn't yank the cord out
ぞっとするような話が
13:44
because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
調べてみると たくさん出てきます
13:46
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
13:50
And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good.
「停止」ボタンを付けず
13:51
And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors
電球のソケットにコードを接続していたとは
13:56
to be plugging things into a light socket like this.
なんて私たちの祖先は愚かだったんだろうとお思いでしょう
14:00
But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors,
しかし 私たちの祖先を非難する前に
14:03
I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room.
私の会議室をお見せしましょう
14:07
This is a total kludge, if you ask me.
これはひどい状態です
14:10
First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket --
ところでこのコンセントは逆さまに設置されていますよね
14:13
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
14:16
and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
コードがすぐ落ちるので テープで止めました
14:17
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
14:19
This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one.
これは最悪の光景ではなく
14:21
This is what it looks like under my desk.
私の机の下のいつもの様子です
14:25
I took this picture just two days ago.
2日前に撮った写真です
14:27
So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
1908年より大して進歩していないのです
14:30
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
14:33
It's a total, total mess.
ひどい散らかりようです
14:35
And, you know, we think it's getting better,
でも本当は進歩しているのです
14:37
but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
802.11を自分で設置しようとされたことはありますか
14:40
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
14:44
I challenge you to try. It's very hard.
やってみて下さい 難しいですよ
14:45
I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science --
コンピューターサイエンスの博士に頼んだのですが
14:47
this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter)
これは本当に博士泣かせな処置です
14:50
And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house.
これはDSLが既に設置されていたとしての話です
14:54
Try to get DSL installed in your house.
DSLを家に設置してみてください
15:00
The engineers who do it everyday can't do it.
日々DSLを設置している技術者でさえできないのです
15:03
They have to -- typically, they come three times.
通常 3回の訪問で設置されます
15:05
And one friend of mine was telling me a story:
友人から聞いた話ですが
15:08
not only did they get there and have to wait,
技術者は3回も出直した挙句に
15:10
but then the engineers, when they finally did get there,
客の家で待機をしなくてはなりませんでした
15:13
for the third time, they had to call somebody.
スピーカーフォンがあったのが幸いです
15:16
And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone
なぜなら アクセスコードを聞きだすのに
15:18
because then they had to wait on hold for an hour
1時間も待って
15:21
to talk to somebody to give them an access code
やっとDSLが
15:23
after they got there.
設置できたのです
15:25
So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
ですから私たちもずいぶんひどいものです
15:27
By the way, DSL is a kludge.
DSLもひどい
15:31
I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed
最初につくった目的とは
15:33
for the purpose it's being put to --
全く違う用途に使われている
15:35
you know it's the whole thing --
捻じれた銅線です すべては
15:37
we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point.
本当に原始的だということが私の申し上げたいポイントです
15:39
Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush,
ゴールドラッシュの「回復力」について考えてみると
15:43
then you'd be pretty depressed right now
かなり落ち込むのが当然でしょう
15:47
because the last nugget of gold would be gone.
最後の金塊がなくなれば終わりですから
15:49
But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget.
幸いイノベーションは金塊のように尽きることがありません
15:52
Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
新しいものをつくる度に 改善点に気づきそれがまた新しいチャンスになる
15:55
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are --
もしそれが信じられるなら
16:00
this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge --
私たちが立っている地点はまだ原始的です
16:04
and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web --
ネット上のユーザーインターフェースなど
16:08
but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff --
ごちゃごちゃしたシステムだらけです
16:12
we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet.
私達はインターネットで1908年のハーレー洗濯機と同じ地点に立っているのです
16:15
That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it,
髪の毛が挟まる危険はありませんが
16:19
but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are.
1908年と同じような
16:22
We're in 1908.
原始的な地点に私達はいるのです
16:25
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996:
それが信じられれば「トラブルが続出するネットに
16:27
"All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble."
接続する価値なし」といった1996年の見出しは気にならないでしょう
16:31
1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb."
1998年「アマゾンドットおしまい」1999年「アマゾンドット爆弾」
16:35
My mom hates this picture.
母はこの写真が大嫌いです
16:41
(Laughter)
(聴衆より笑い)
16:43
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very,
もし皆さんが
16:47
very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine,
今私たちが1908年のハーレー洗濯機の地点にいると同感できるなら
16:50
then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are.
皆さんはとても楽観的です そして私もそんなひとりです
16:54
And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us
今まで起こったイノベーションよりも
16:57
than there is behind us.
今後のイノベーションの方が多いと信じています
17:00
And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right.
これは1917年に世に出た
17:02
This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917.
シアーズの広告です
17:07
It says: "Use your electricity for more than light."
「電気を照明以外にも活用しよう」
17:11
And I think that's where we are.
これが私たちの今の地点なのです
17:14
We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
実に初期の段階です ありがとうございました
17:16
Translated by Rinko Kawakami
Reviewed by Takako Sato

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About the Speaker:

Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999.

Why you should listen

Jeff Bezos didn't invent online shopping, but he almost single-handedly turned it into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His Amazon.com began as a bookstore in 1994, and quickly expanded into dozens of product categories, forcing the world's biggest retailers to rethink their business models, and ultimately changing the way people shop.

But Amazon.com isn't just an internet success story. It's the standard by which all web businesses are now judged -- if not by their shareholders, then by their customers. Amazon set a high bar for reliability and customer service, and also introduced a wide range of online retail conventions -- from user reviews and one-click shopping to the tab interface and shopping cart icon -- so commonplace we no longer think of them as once having been innovations.

When the Internet bubble burst, Amazon.com took a hit with the other e-commerce pioneers, but the fundamentally sound company hung tough. It now sells more than $10 billion a year of goods, profitably, and its technology will influence the changes to business and media that will come next. Amazon recently released Kindle, a wireless digital reading device, giving the term "page turning" a completely new definition. Bezos, meanwhile, is one of the few early Web CEOs who still run the companies they founded. Outside of his work with Amazon, he recently founded Blue Origin, a space-flight startup.

More profile about the speaker
Jeff Bezos | Speaker | TED.com