09:48
TEDxStanford

Baba Shiv: Sometimes it's good to give up the driver's seat

ババ・シフ: 運転は任せた方が良いこともある

Filmed:

直感に反する人間の性質が、次第に明らかにされてきました。選択肢が多すぎることが、幸せにつながるとは限らないのです。これは治療の場面にもあてはまります。ババ・シフが彼の行なった興味深い研究を紹介し、選択肢が却って疑いの扉を開くこととなるのはなぜか、特に生死にかかわる決定において、コントロールを手放してしまうことが最良となる場合があることを語ります。

- Neuroeconomist
Baba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing. Full bio

I want to start on a slightly somber note.
少し重い話になりますが
00:16
Two thousand and seven, five years ago,
2007年―今から5年ほど前に
00:19
my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer,
家内が乳がんと診断されました
00:23
stage IIB.
ステージ IIB でした
00:26
Now, looking back, the most harrowing
いま当時を振り返って一番
00:29
part of that experience
苦しかったことは
00:31
was not just the hospital visits --
病院に行くことではありません
00:32
these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.
もちろん本人がつらいのは
わかります
00:34
It was not even the initial shock of knowing
乳がんだと知らされた―
00:38
that she had breast cancer, just 39 years old,
ショックでもありません
まだ39歳で
00:39
absolutely no history of cancer in her family.
癌の家族歴もなかったのです
00:41
The most horrifying and agonizing part
この一連の経験で
もっとも恐ろしくて
00:46
of the whole experience was we were making
苦しかったのは
00:49
decisions after decisions after decisions
決断を次から次へと
00:51
that were being thrust upon us.
求められ続けたことです
00:53
Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?
乳房切除をすべきか?
それとも乳腺腫瘤の摘出か?
00:55
Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment,
ステージ IIB なのだから
00:58
given that it was stage IIB?
積極的な治療に委ねるべきなのか?
01:01
With all the side effects?
副作用があっても?
01:03
Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?
それとも そこまで積極的でなくてもいいのか?
01:04
And these were being pressed upon us
次から次へと決断を求めてくるのが
01:07
by the doctors.
医師なのです
01:09
Now, you could ask this question,
不思議に思うかもしれません
01:12
why were the doctors doing this?
医師はなぜ こうしたのか?
01:13
Now, a simplistic answer would be,
単純に考えると医者自身が
01:15
the doctors are doing this because they want to protect themselves legally.
法的に自分を守りたいためですが
01:16
I think that is too simplistic.
実はそんな単純な話ではありません
01:21
These are well-meaning doctors,
彼らは善意の医者であり
01:23
some of them have gone on to become very good friends.
何人かとは良い友人になりました
01:24
They probably were simply following the wisdom
きっと長年受け継がれてきた
01:26
that has come down the ages, this adage that when you're making decisions,
古い考え方に従ったまでなのでしょう
01:28
especially decisions of importance,
「意思決定
特に重責を伴う意思決定は
01:32
it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control,
他人の判断に任せずに
自分の意思で決めよ
01:34
it's best to be in the driver's seat.
つまり助手席に座るよりも
運転席に乗るべきである」
01:37
And we were certainly in the driver's seat,
そこで我々は運転席に座らせられ
01:40
making all these decisions, and let me tell you,
多くの意思決定を下すことになったのです
01:42
if some of you had been there,
同じ経験をされた方もいるでしょうが
01:44
it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.
何よりも苦しくて恐ろしい経験となりました
01:46
Which got me thinking.
そして考えてみました―
01:50
I said, is there any validity to
決断をすることに関する考え方は
01:51
this whole adage that when you're making decisions,
本当に正しいのだろうか?
01:53
it's best to take the driver's seat,
運転席に乗ることが一番良いのか?
主導権を握って
01:56
be in charge, be in control?
制御するのが良いのか
01:59
Or are there contexts where we're far better off
逆に 状況によっては我々が助手席におさまり
02:00
taking the passenger's seat and have someone else drive?
誰かに運転席を任せた方が良い場合もあるのでは?
02:03
For example, a trusted financial advisor,
例えば 信頼できる金融専門家や
02:07
could be a trusted doctor, etc.
信頼できる医者などです
02:08
And since I study human decision making,
私は「意思決定の仕組み」を研究していますので
02:11
I said, I'm going to run some studies
いくつかの実験を行い
02:14
to find some answers.
答えを導き出すことにしました
02:17
And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.
早速 ここで研究成果のひとつをご紹介します
02:18
So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.
皆さんは その実験に参加しているつもりで聞いてください
02:20
I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is
この実験では皆さんに
02:25
you're going to drink a cup of tea.
まず 一杯のお茶を飲んでいただきます
02:28
If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.
お茶を飲む理由は後で説明します
02:30
You are going to solve a series of puzzles,
そしてパズルをいくつか解いてもらいます
02:35
and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.
パズルの実例も後ほどお見せします
02:37
And the more puzzles you solve,
正解数が多ければ多いほど
02:41
the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.
賞品をもらえる可能性が大きくなります
02:43
Now, why do you have to consume the tea?
ところでなぜお茶を飲むのか?
02:46
Why? Because it makes a lot of sense.
理由は単純明快です
02:48
In order to solve these puzzles effectively,
パズルを効果的に解くために
02:50
if you think about it, your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously.
精神が同時に2つの状態にならないといけません
02:53
Right? It needs to be alert,
そうでしょう?神経がピンと張り詰めた状態
02:56
for which caffeine is very good.
これにはカフェインが効果的ですし
02:59
Simultaneously, it needs to be calm.
同時に 心穏やかでなければいけません
03:02
Not agitated, calm. For which chamomile is very good.
苛つかず 心が落ち着いた状態
これにはカモミールが最適です
03:05
Now comes the between-subjects design,
さて被験者間で何を変えるのかという
ABテストの
03:11
the AB design, the AB testing.
デザインを説明します
03:14
So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you
早速ですが 皆さんを適当に
03:15
to one of two groups.
2つのグループに分けます
03:17
So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here,
ここに架空の線があると想像してください
03:19
so everyone here will be group A,
こちらの皆さんはグループAに
03:22
everyone out here will be group B.
こちらの皆さんはグループBにします
03:25
Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is
グループAの皆さんには
03:27
I'm going to show you these two teas,
2種類のお茶をお見せして
03:30
and I'm asking you, I'll go ahead and ask you,
自分で好きな方を
03:32
to choose your tea. So you can choose which of the two tea you want.
選んでいただきます
03:34
You can decide, what is your mental state:
さぁ 選んでみてください
決めましたか?
03:37
Okay, I'm going to choose the caffeinated tea,
そうだ 私はカフェイン入りのお茶を
03:39
I'm going to choose the chamomile tea.
私はカモミールを選ぼう
03:41
So you're going to be in charge,
自分で決める―
03:43
you're going to be in control, you're going to be in the driver's seat.
選択権を持ち
運転席に座っているのです
03:44
You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas,
グループBの皆さん
ここに2種類のお茶がありますが
03:48
but you don't have a choice.
選んでいただくことはできません
03:51
I'm going to give you one of these two teas,
どちらかをお渡しします
03:53
and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these
どちらか一方のお茶を
03:55
two teas at random for you.
ランダムにお渡しします
03:58
And you know that.
覚えておいてください
04:00
So if you think about it, this is an extreme case scenario,
もちろん これは非常に極端な例です
04:01
because in the real world,
なぜなら 実社会では
04:04
whenever you are taking passenger's seat,
あなたが助手席に座るときにはまず
04:05
very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,
たいてい運転席には信頼をおける人や
04:07
an expert, etc. So this is an extreme case scenario.
専門家がいる筈だからです
これはかなり極端なシナリオです
04:10
Now, you're all going to consume the tea.
ここで皆さんにはお茶を飲んでいただきます
04:14
So imagine that you are taking the tea now,
お茶を楽しんでください
04:19
we'll wait for you to finish the tea.
飲み終るまでもう少し待ちましょう
04:21
We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.
お茶の成分が効果を発揮するまで
あと5分ほど待ちましょう
04:23
Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.
さて これから30分かけて15問のパズルを解いてください
04:27
Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.
ひとつサンプルをご紹介します
04:32
Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?
どなたか分かりますか?(文字の並び替えクイズ)
04:35
(Audience: Pulpit.) Baba Shiv: Whoa!
(観衆:PULPIT ) 素晴らしい!
04:38
Okay, that's cool.
凄いですね!
04:40
Yeah, so what we do if we had you, who will get the answer,
さて あなたのようにすぐ解る人がいたらどうするか
04:41
as a participant, we would have calibrated the difficulty level
被験者のレベルに合わせて 
パズルの難易度を
04:44
of the puzzles to your expertise.
調整する必要がありました
04:48
Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.
簡単に解けては無意味ですから
04:50
These are tricky puzzles because your first instinct
このクイズは実に巧妙にできてて
04:52
is to say "tulip," and then you have to unstick yourself.
本能的に TULIP に見えるので 慌てて頭を切り替えたり―
04:55
Right? So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise.
しなくてはいけませんね 
つまり適切な難易度に設定されています
04:59
Because we want this to be difficult, and I'll tell you why momentarily.
後に説明しますが簡単に解けては意味がありません
05:03
Now, here's another example.
それではサンプル問題をもうひとつ
05:07
Anyone? It's much more difficult.
分かりますか?少し難しいかな?
05:09
(Audience: Embark.) BS: Yeah, wow. Okay.
(観客:EMBARK ) 正解!
05:11
So, yeah, so this is again difficult.
こちらも難しかったでしょう
05:14
You will say "kambar," then you will have to go, "maker,"
KAMBAR や MAKER など
05:16
and all that, and then you can unstick yourself.
ひっかけがたくさんあるのです
05:17
Okay, so you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.
このような問題15問を 30分間で解いてもらいます
05:19
Now, the question we're asking here
この実験で
05:24
is in terms of the outcome,
注目していることがあります
05:26
in terms of the number of puzzles solved,
正解数が多いのは
05:28
will you in the driver's seat
運転席に乗る場合の
05:30
end up solving more puzzles,
方でしょうか?
05:33
because you are in control, you could decide which tea you will choose,
つまり 飲むお茶を選択できたからこそ
成果が上がるのか
05:35
or would you be better off,
それともグループBの方が
05:38
in terms of the number of puzzles solved?
正解数が多いのでしょうか?
05:40
And systemically what we will show,
系統的な調査データをもとに
05:43
across a series of studies,
分析した結果
05:45
is that you, the passengers,
実は助手席にいる方が
05:47
even though the tea was picked for you at random,
お茶はランダムに割り当てられたものなのに
05:49
will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.
運転席にいる方よりも多く正解しました
05:53
We also observe another thing,
もうひとつ分かったことは
05:57
and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles,
運転席にいる方は回答数が少ないうえ
06:00
you're also putting less juice into the task.
集中力を欠いています
06:02
Less effort, you're less persistent, and so on.
努力が足りず 粘り強さもない
06:05
How do you know that?
なぜわかるのか?
06:08
Well we have two objective measures.
2つの客観的指標があるのです
06:09
One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking
ひとつは問題を解くのに
06:12
in attempting to solve these puzzles?
かけた解答時間の平均です
06:15
You will spend less time compared to you.
グループAの方が平均解答時間が短かったのです
06:17
Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these,
二つ目です
制限時間は30分ありますが
06:20
are you taking the entire 30 minutes, or are you giving up
最後まで諦めずがんばるか?
あるいは30分より
06:22
before the 30 minutes elapse?
前に途中棄権するのか?
06:24
You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse compared to you.
グループAの方が途中棄権する確率が高かったのです
06:26
So, you're putting in less juice, and therefore the outcome:
集中力を欠いていることは結果にも現れます
06:31
fewer puzzles solved.
正解数が少ないのです
06:34
Now, that brings us now to, why does this happen?
ではなぜ こんな結果になるのか
06:37
And under what situations, when would we see this pattern of results
どのような状況だと
こういう結果に―
06:41
where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes
つまり助手席側の方が
運転席側よりも
06:46
compared to the driver?
良い成果を出せるのか?
06:50
It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.
INCA と名付けたもの遭遇する場合に問題となるのです
06:52
It's an acronym that stands for
INCA は 意思決定の後のフィードバックの
06:57
the nature of the feedback you're getting after you've made the decision.
性質を表す言葉の頭文字です
06:59
So, if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task,
今回のパズル実験を思い出してみてください
07:03
it could happen in investing in the stock market,
変化の激しい株式投資や
07:06
very volatile out there, it could be the medical situation --
病気の場合でも同じですが
結果は
07:08
the feedback here is immediate.
直ちに分かりますよね (Immediate)
07:10
You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.
パズルが解けたかどうか すぐ分かります
07:13
Right? Second, it is negative.
そして 結果は通常良くない (Negative)
07:17
Remember, the deck was stacked against you.
パズルの難易度は
07:19
In terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.
意図的に高く設定されていました
07:22
And this can happen in the medical domain.
これは医療の現場でも同じです
07:24
For example, very early on in the treatment,
例えば 治療のごく初期には
07:26
things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.
良い結果も見えず
状況や手ごたえは厳しいものです
07:28
Right? It can happen in the stock market.
これは株式市場でも同じです
07:32
Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback that's also immediate.
荒れた株式市場では
直ちに否定的な結果が得られます
07:34
And the feedback in all these cases is concrete.
そして フィードバックは具体的です (Concrete)
07:37
It's not ambiguous; you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.
曖昧ではありません
正解か 不正解か
07:40
Now, the added one, apart from this immediacy,
さらにこの「即時性 (I)」
07:43
negative, this concreteness,
「ネガティブ (N)」「具体的 (C)」に
07:47
now you have a sense of agency.
「主体感 (Agency)」が加わります
07:51
You were responsible for your decision.
自分の決断には責任が伴います
07:54
So what do you do?
するとどうなるのか?
07:57
You focus on the foregone option.
選ばなかった選択肢が気になるのです
07:59
You say, you know what? I should have chosen the other tea.
だから もう一方のお茶を選んでればよかったのに―
08:01
(Laughter)
(笑)
08:05
That casts your decision in doubt,
心の迷いが 意思決定を乱し
08:08
reduces the confidence you have in the decision,
意思決定の自信低下
08:11
reduces the confidence you have in the performance,
良い成果への自信低下
08:14
the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.
問題解決能力の低下につながります
08:16
And therefore less juice into the task,
課題解決に身が入らないので
08:18
fewer puzzles solved, a less favorable outcome compared to you folks.
正解数が少なくグループBより劣る結果となります
08:20
And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it.
これは医療分野でも十分に起こりえますね
08:25
Right? A patient in the driver's seat, for example.
患者を運転席に座らせた場合
08:28
Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself
活力に欠け 回復のプロセスを促す
08:30
less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process,
運動や 健康維持の努力に
身が入らなくなってしまいます
08:33
which is what is often advocated. You probably wouldn't do that.
大切だといわれているのにです
これは良くないですね
08:37
And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA,
ですからINCAに遭遇したら
08:41
when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative,
フィードバックが即時でネガティブであり
08:46
concrete, and you have the sense of agency,
具体的で 自己責任を感じる時
08:50
where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat
その場合は―誰かに運転席を任せ
08:53
and have someone else drive.
助手席に座ったほうがずっと良いのです
08:55
Now, I started off
今日は重苦しい
08:59
on the somber note.
トーンで始まったので
09:00
I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.
最後は陽気なトーンで締め括りましょう
09:02
It has now been five years, slightly more than five years,
あれから5年が経過し―正確には5年以上ですが
09:04
and the good news, thank God,
非常に喜ばしいことに
09:07
is that the cancer is still in remission.
家内の癌は未だ寛解期に留まっています
09:09
So it all ends well,
治療も順調に進んだわけです
09:14
but one thing I didn't mention was
ただし ひとつだけ言ってなかったことがあります
09:16
that very early on into her treatment,
二人で相談した結果
家内の初期治療のときから
09:19
my wife and I decided that we will take the passenger's seat.
我々は助手席に座ることを決めました
09:22
And that made so much of a difference
そのことで得られた心の平安のおかげで
09:26
in terms of the peace of mind that came with that,
病気の回復に集中できたことが
09:28
we could focus on her recovery.
この結果につながったと思います
09:31
We let the doctors make all the decisions,
我々は医者に運転席を譲り
09:33
take the driver's seat.
すべての意思決定を任せました
09:36
Thank you.
ありがとうございました
09:38
(Applause)
(拍手)
09:40
Translated by Masaki Uchihashi
Reviewed by Natsuhiko Mizutani

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About the Speaker:

Baba Shiv - Neuroeconomist
Baba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing.

Why you should listen

Does a bottle of wine’s price tag price affect the pleasure one experiences in buying and drinking it? Does getting immediate feedback on a choice lead a person to doubt their decision? Does being denied something make people pursue it more hotly while simultaneously liking it less? Over his academic career, Baba Shiv has researched these questions in neuroeconomics, winning awards like the William O’Dell prize for an article that made a significant, long-term contribution to marketing theory and practice. Two of Professor Shiv's publications have received the Citation of Excellence from Emerald Management Reviews, and his research has been been featured on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and on NPR's "Radiolab," as well as in the Financial Times, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal.

A professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Busines , Shiv is the director of the Strategic Marketing Management Executive Program and teaches several popular MBA courses including “The Frinky Science of the Mind” and “Entrepreneurial Ventures in Luxury Markets.” He served as the editor of the Journal of Consumer Research and is also on the editorial boards of the Journal of Consumer Psychology, Journal of Retailing, Journal of Marketing and the Journal of Marketing Research.

More profile about the speaker
Baba Shiv | Speaker | TED.com