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TEDGlobal 2012

Ivan Krastev: Can democracy exist without trust?

イワン・クラステフ: 信頼なしの民主主義はあり得るか?

June 28, 2012

政治理論家イワン・クラステフは、5つの大きな革命が過去50年間の政治文化を形成したと言う。クラステフは60年代の文化革命から脳科学に至る革命の一つ一つが、民主主義を成り立たせる制度への人々の信頼をいかに浸食してきたかを示す。彼が言うように「成功は同時に失敗でもある」のだ。民主主義は生き残れるだろうか?

Ivan Krastev - Public intellectual
From his home base in Bulgaria, Ivan Krastev thinks about democracy -- and how to reframe it. Full bio

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Double-click the English subtitles below to play the video.
I'm afraid I'm one of those speakers
私は皆さんが
TEDで期待するような
00:15
you hope you're not going to meet at TED.
人物ではありません
00:18
First, I don't have a mobile,
第一に携帯電話を持っていません
00:21
so I'm on the safe side.
だから安全圏にいるわけです
00:23
Secondly, a political theorist
第二に私は政治理論家で
00:24
who's going to talk about the crisis of democracy
民主主義の危機について
お話しします
00:27
is probably not the most exciting topic you can think about.
あまり興味をそそる
話題ではないですね
00:29
And plus, I'm not going to give you any answers.
そして私は解決策は提示しません
00:33
I'm much more trying to add to some of the questions we're talking about.
代わりに今日ここで話題にする疑問を
さらに掘り下げます
00:36
And one of the things that I want to question
私が問いかけたいのは
00:39
is this very popular hope these days
透明性と開放性が民主主義への
00:42
that transparency and openness
信頼を回復してくれるという
00:44
can restore the trust in democratic institutions.
最近とみに高まっている
期待についてです
00:46
There is one more reason for you to be suspicious about me.
もう一つ私がうさんくさい人間だと
思える理由は
00:51
You people, the Church of TED, are a very optimistic community.
TED教信者の皆さんの
楽観性から来ています
00:54
(Laughter)
(笑)
00:58
Basically you believe in complexity, but not in ambiguity.
皆さんは複雑性を信じますが
曖昧性は信じません
01:00
As you have been told, I'm Bulgarian.
ご案内のように
私はブルガリア人です
01:05
And according to the surveys,
調査によれば
01:08
we are marked the most pessimistic people in the world.
ブルガリア人は
世界一悲観的な民族です
01:10
(Laughter)
(笑)
01:13
The Economist magazine recently wrote an article
エコノミスト誌が
ある記事を最近掲載しました
01:15
covering one of the recent studies on happiness,
幸福に関する最新の研究を
紹介するもので
01:19
and the title was "The Happy, the Unhappy and the Bulgarians."
タイトルは「幸せ者と不幸者と
ブルガリア人」です
01:21
(Laughter)
(笑)
01:26
So now when you know what to expect,
大体の見当がついたと思いますので
01:28
let's give you the story.
本題に入りましょう
01:32
And this is a rainy election day in a small country --
ある国の投票日のことです
あいにくの雨です
01:33
that can be my country, but could be also your country.
私の国かもしれません
あなた方の国かもしれません
01:38
And because of the rain until four o'clock in the afternoon,
雨のせいで午後4時になっても
01:41
nobody went to the polling stations.
だれも投票所に行きません
01:45
But then the rain stopped,
突然雨が止みました
01:48
people went to vote.
人々は投票所に向かいます
01:50
And when the votes had been counted,
得票が集計されると
01:52
three-fourths of the people have voted with a blank ballot.
4分の3の人々が白票を投じていました
01:55
The government and the opposition,
政府も反対勢力も
02:02
they have been simply paralyzed.
麻痺状態に陥りました というのも
02:05
Because you know what to do about the protests.
抗議活動ならば対処法があります
02:08
You know who to arrest, who to negotiate with.
誰を逮捕すべきか 誰と交渉すれば
いいのかがわかっています
02:10
But what to do about people who are voting with a blank ballot?
しかし白票を投じた人々を
どう扱うべきでしょうか?
02:12
So the government decided to have the elections once again.
政府はもう一度
選挙をやり直すことにしました
02:17
And this time even a greater number,
すると今度はさらに多くの人々
02:21
83 percent of the people, voted with blank ballots.
83%もの人々が白票を投じました
02:24
Basically they went to the ballot boxes
彼らは投票箱まで行きましたが
02:29
to tell that they have nobody to vote for.
投票するに値する者が
いないことを示したのです
02:32
This is the opening of a beautiful novel by Jose Saramago
これはジョゼ・サラマーゴのすばらしい小説
02:35
called "Seeing."
『白の闇』の始まりです
02:40
But in my view it very well captures
私には この小説は
現在のヨーロッパが抱えている
02:41
part of the problem that we have with democracy in Europe these days.
民主主義の問題を
とてもよく捉えていると思えます
02:44
On one level nobody's questioning
ある意味で 民主主義が
02:48
that democracy is the best form of government.
最良の統治形態であることは
誰も疑いません
02:51
Democracy is the only game in town.
民主主義が唯一の選択肢なのです
02:55
The problem is that many people start to believe
問題は民主主義が
価値ある選択肢だと
02:57
that it is not a game worth playing.
だれも思わなくなったことです
03:00
For the last 30 years, political scientists have observed
過去30年間政治学者達は
03:02
that there is a constant decline in electoral turnout,
投票率の漸減に気づき
03:07
and the people who are least interested to vote
しかも 投票にもっとも
無関心な人々こそが
03:11
are the people whom you expect are going to gain most out of voting.
もし投票すれば最大の利益を
得ることに気づいていました
03:15
I mean the unemployed, the under-privileged.
失業者や社会的弱者達です
03:20
And this is a major issue.
これは大きな問題です
03:23
Because especially now with the economic crisis,
なぜなら現在経済危機のために
03:25
you can see that the trust in politics,
政治への信頼が
03:28
that the trust in democratic institutions,
民主主義体制への信頼が
03:30
was really destroyed.
完全に失われているからです
03:33
According to the latest survey being done by the European Commission,
欧州委員会の最新の調査によれば
03:35
89 percent of the citizens of Europe believe that there is a growing gap
ヨーロッパ市民の89%が
政策立案者と市民の意見が
03:38
between the opinion of the policy-makers and the opinion of the public.
ますます乖離していると答えています
03:43
Only 18 percent of Italians and 15 percent of Greeks
イタリアでは18%
ギリシアでは15%しか
03:49
believe that their vote matters.
投票に意義を見いだしていません
03:53
Basically people start to understand that they can change governments,
人々は政府は変えることができても
03:57
but they cannot change policies.
政策は変えることができないと
考えています
04:01
And the question which I want to ask is the following:
私の疑問は以下の通りです
04:03
How did it happen that we are living in societies
私たちはこれまで以上に
04:06
which are much freer than ever before --
自由な社会に生きながら
04:10
we have more rights, we can travel easier,
-- つまり権利に恵まれ
楽にいろんな所へ行けたり
04:12
we have access to more information --
情報に自由にアクセスできるのに --
04:15
at the same time that trust in our democratic institutions
民主主義体制への信頼が
04:17
basically has collapsed?
どうして失墜してしまったのか?
04:21
So basically I want to ask:
言い換えれば
04:23
What went right and what went wrong in these 50 years
民主主義についてこの50年間に
04:25
when we talk about democracy?
何が成功し何が失敗したのでしょうか?
04:29
And I'll start with what went right.
成功したことからはじめましょう
04:31
And the first thing that went right was, of course,
成功したのはまず第一に
04:35
these five revolutions which, in my view,
私たちの生き方を変え
04:38
very much changed the way we're living and deepened our democratic experience.
民主主義を育くんだ
5つの革命です
04:41
And the first was the cultural and social revolution of 1968 and 1970s,
最初のものは1968年と
70年代の社会文化革命
04:45
which put the individual at the center of politics.
これが個人を
政治の中心に据えました
04:51
It was the human rights moment.
人権運動の時代でした
04:53
Basically this was also a major outbreak, a culture of dissent,
これはまた大規模な
対抗文化の噴出で
04:56
a culture of basically non-conformism,
それ以前にはなかった
05:00
which was not known before.
反体制文化の爆発でした
05:03
So I do believe that even things like that
このような運動は
05:06
are very much the children of '68 --
私たちの大多数はその頃
まだ生まれていませんでしたが
05:08
nevertheless that most of us had been even not born then.
68年の落とし子だと考えます
05:12
But after that you have the market revolution of the 1980s.
その後80年代の
市場革命が起こりました
05:15
And nevertheless that many people on the left try to hate it,
左派の好むようなもの
ではありませんでしたが
05:18
the truth is that it was very much the market revolution that sent the message:
市場革命は
「(市場は)政府に先んずる」という
05:22
"The government does not know better."
メッセージを送る結果になりました
05:26
And you have more choice-driven societies.
そして時代は選択に支配された
社会へと移行します
05:28
And of course, you have 1989 -- the end of Communism, the end of the Cold War.
もちろん1989年には
共産主義と冷戦が終結し
05:31
And it was the birth of the global world.
グローバル世界が誕生します
05:37
And you have the Internet.
そしてインターネットの登場です
05:40
And this is not the audience to which I'm going to preach
この場に集う皆さんには
インターネットがどれほど
05:42
to what extent the Internet empowered people.
人々に力を与えたかは
説く必要もないでしょう
05:45
It has changed the way we are communicating
インターネットは
コミュニケーションの方法を変え
05:47
and basically we are viewing politics.
我々が政治を見る方法を
根本的に変えました
05:50
The very idea of political community totally has changed.
政治集団という概念が
すっかり変わってしまったのです
05:52
And I'm going to name one more revolution,
さらにもう一つ革命を挙げるならば
05:55
and this is the revolution in brain sciences,
それは脳科学という革命でしょう
05:57
which totally changed the way
脳科学は人がどのように
決断を下すかについての
05:59
we understand how people are making decisions.
我々の理解を変えてしまいました
06:01
So this is what went right.
これらは正しい方向への変化です
06:04
But if we're going to see what went wrong,
誤った方向への変化を見てみると
06:07
we're going to end up with the same five revolutions.
全く同じ5つの革命を
挙げることができます
06:10
Because first you have the 1960s and 1970s,
第一に1960、70年代の
06:13
cultural and social revolution,
社会文化革命です
06:16
which in a certain way destroyed the idea of a collective purpose.
これは集団的目的という
概念を破壊しました
06:18
The very idea, all these collective nouns that we have been taught about --
私たちがそれまで教え込まれた
集団に関しての言葉
06:22
nation, class, family.
国家 階級 家族などの概念を
破壊したのです
06:27
We start to like divorcing, if we're married at all.
結婚していれば 離婚を望みはじめ
06:30
All this was very much under attack.
既存の社会秩序が
攻撃されたのです
06:32
And it is so difficult to engage people in politics
人々の目を政治に向けることが
難しくなりました
06:35
when they believe that what really matters
本当に大切なものは
06:40
is where they personally stand.
個人の立脚点だ
とされたからです
06:42
And you have the market revolution of the 1980s
そして1980年代の市場革命です
06:45
and the huge increase of inequality in societies.
これは社会に大規模な
不平等をもたらしました
06:48
Remember, until the 1970s,
覚えていますか
1970年代までは
06:54
the spread of democracy has always been accompanied
民主主義の広がりは常に
06:56
by the decline of inequality.
不平等の減少を伴っていました
07:00
The more democratic our societies have been,
社会が民主化すればするほど
07:03
the more equal they have been becoming.
社会は平等になっていったのです
07:06
Now we have the reverse tendency.
ところが今は逆で
07:10
The spread of democracy now is very much accompanied
民主主義は不平等と共に
07:12
by the increase in inequality.
広まっていきます
07:15
And I find this very much disturbing
近年民主主義の功罪を語るとき
07:17
when we're talking about what's going on right and wrong
私にはこのことが
07:20
with democracy these days.
気になってたまりません
07:24
And if you go to 1989 --
1989年に起きたことは
誰も基本的には批判しませんが
07:26
something that basically you don't expect that anybody's going to criticize --
多くの人々は 「冷戦の終結が
07:28
but many are going to tell you, "Listen, it was the end of the Cold War
西ヨーロッパのエリート階級と庶民との
07:31
that tore the social contract between the elites and the people in Western Europe."
社会契約を断ち切ったんだ」
と言うでしょう
07:35
When the Soviet Union was still there,
ソ連がまだ存在した頃
07:40
the rich and the powerful, they needed the people,
力と富のある者達は
大衆を必要としていました
07:42
because they feared them.
彼らを恐れていたからです
07:46
Now the elites basically have been liberated.
現在エリート達は解放されました
07:48
They're very mobile. You cannot tax them.
移動は自由になり
税金を課すことはできません
07:51
And basically they don't fear the people.
彼らは大衆を恐れません
07:53
So as a result of it, you have this very strange situation
その結果 妙な状況が生じています
07:56
in which the elites basically got out of the control of the voters.
エリート達が有権者から
自由になっているのです
07:59
So this is not by accident
ですから有権者が
投票意欲を失ったとしても
08:03
that the voters are not interested to vote anymore.
それは偶然ではありません
08:05
And when we talk about the Internet,
インターネットはと言えば
08:08
yes, it's true, the Internet connected all of us,
確かに インターネットは
人々を繋ぎましたが
08:10
but we also know that the Internet created these echo chambers and political ghettos
そのインターネットが 閉ざされた空間や
隔離された政治地区を作り出し
08:12
in which for all your life you can stay with the political community you belong to.
その中で人々は特定の政治集団に参加して
一生安住できるようになりました
08:19
And it's becoming more and more difficult
それで 自分と異なる人間を理解することが
08:24
to understand the people who are not like you.
ますます難しくなってきているのです
08:26
I know that many people here
ここにおられる方々は デジタル世界や
08:29
have been splendidly speaking about the digital world and the possibility for cooperation,
協力の可能性について語られますが
08:31
but [have you] seen what the digital world has done to American politics these days?
デジタル世界が米国の政治に
何をしたでしょうか?
08:35
This is also partly a result of the Internet revolution.
これもインターネット革命の結果なのです
08:40
This is the other side of the things that we like.
これが私たちが好む世界の裏側です
08:43
And when you go to the brain sciences,
脳科学の分野では
08:46
what political consultants learned from the brain scientists
政治の専門家が
脳科学から学んだものは
08:48
is don't talk to me about ideas anymore,
理想を語るな
08:52
don't talk to me about policy programs.
政治を語るなということです
08:56
What really matters is basically to manipulate the emotions of the people.
必要なのは人々の感情を
操作することです
08:58
And you have this very strongly
この傾向は強く出ており
09:04
to the extent that, even if you see when we talk about revolutions these days,
今日では革命を語るときですら
09:06
these revolutions are not named anymore around ideologies or ideas.
イデオロギーや思想にちなんだ
名前を付けません
09:10
Before, revolutions used to have ideological names.
以前は革命には
イデオロギーの名が与えられました
09:16
They could be communist, they could be liberal,
共産主義者 自由主義者
09:19
they could be fascist or Islamic.
ファシスト イスラム教徒など
09:21
Now the revolutions are called under the medium which is most used.
今では革命は利用される
メディアの名前で呼ばれます
09:22
You have Facebook revolutions, Twitter revolutions.
フェイスブック革命
ツイッター革命など
09:27
The content doesn't matter anymore, the problem is the media.
もはや内容は問題ではなく
メディアが問題なのです
09:30
I'm saying this because one of my major points
なぜこれを指摘するかというと
09:34
is what went right is also what went wrong.
成功は失敗でもあったからです
09:37
And when we're now trying to see how we can change the situation,
今状況を変化させようとしているとき
09:42
when basically we're trying to see what can be done about democracy,
民主主義に何ができるかを
考えようとしているときに
09:45
we should keep this ambiguity in mind.
この両義性を覚えておく必要があります
09:48
Because probably some of the things that we love most
我々が最も愛するものが
09:51
are going to be also the things that can hurt us most.
我々を最も傷つけることになるからです
09:54
These days it's very popular to believe
今日 透明性の要求
09:57
that this push for transparency,
行動する市民とテクノロジーの結びつき
10:00
this kind of a combination between active citizens, new technologies
さらなる透明性を保証する立法府が
10:03
and much more transparency-friendly legislation
政治への信頼を回復してくれると
10:09
can restore trust in politics.
人々は信じています
10:13
You believe that when you have these new technologies and people who are ready to use this,
新しいテクノロジーが生まれ
それを市民が使うようになれば
10:16
it can make it much more difficult for the governments to lie,
政府は嘘をつけなくなるだろうと
10:19
it's going to be more difficult for them to steal
政府は盗むことなく
殺すこともないだろうと
10:23
and probably even going to be more difficult for them to kill.
信じるでしょう
10:26
This is probably true.
そうかもしれません
10:29
But I do believe that we should be also very clear
しかし同時に次のことを覚えるべきです
10:31
that now when we put the transparency at the center of politics
透明性を政治の中心に持ち込めば
10:34
where the message is, "It's transparency, stupid."
「大事なのは透明性だ、愚か者め」
という姿勢だけが重んじられます
10:40
Transparency is not about restoring trust in institutions.
透明性は組織の信頼を
回復することではありません
10:43
Transparency is politics' management of mistrust.
透明性は政治が政治への
不信を処理する方法なのです
10:47
We are assuming that our societies are going to be based on mistrust.
社会は不信の上に立っていると
私たちは考えます
10:51
And by the way, mistrust was always very important for democracy.
もっとも 不信は民主主義には
大切なものです
10:56
This is why you have checks and balances.
抑制と均衡により成り立っていますし
10:59
This is why basically you have all this creative mistrust
選挙人と被選挙人の間には
11:01
between the representatives and those whom they represent.
創造的不信が存在するのですから
11:05
But when politics is only management of mistrust,
しかし 政治が不信の
管理に過ぎないならば
11:08
then -- I'm very glad that "1984" has been mentioned --
-- ちょうど『1984』の話が出ていましたが --
11:13
now we're going to have "1984" in reverse.
『1984』の真逆の状況ができあがります
11:16
It's not going to be the Big Brother watching you,
ビッグブラザーが我々を
監視するのではなく
11:20
it's going to be we being the Big Brother
我々がビッグブラザーとなり
11:22
watching the political class.
政治家階級をを監視するのです
11:24
But is this the idea of a free society?
これが自由な社会の姿でしょうか
11:26
For example, can you imagine
たとえば 善良で賢明な市民が
11:30
that decent, civic, talented people are going to run for office
政治は不信を管理することだと
11:31
if they really do believe
信じながら公職に就こうと
11:37
that politics is also about managing mistrust?
立候補することがあるでしょうか
11:39
Are you not afraid with all these technologies
いろいろな技術を使って
11:43
that are going to track down
政治家の発言を一言一句
11:46
any statement the politicians are going to make on certain issues,
追跡できるとしたら怖くありませんか
11:48
are you not afraid that this is going to be a very strong signal to politicians
このような事態が政治家に
常識よりも一貫性を重視させ
11:52
to repeat their positions, even the very wrong positions,
彼らの立場を
-- それがいくら間違ったものであれ --
11:55
because consistency is going to be more important than common sense?
繰り返させるとすれば
怖くありませんか
12:00
And the Americans who are in the room,
この場にいるアメリカ人の方々は
12:04
are you not afraid that your presidents are going to govern
大統領が 予備選挙の
公約を意識して
12:06
on the basis of what they said in the primary elections?
政治を行うとしたら ゾッとしませんか
12:09
I find this extremely important,
とても大切なことは
12:12
because democracy is about people changing their views
民主主義では
理の通った議論に基づき
12:14
based on rational arguments and discussions.
見解を変えることが許されることです
12:18
And we can lose this with the very noble idea
しかし 高貴な理想に駆られ
人々に報告義務を課し
12:21
to keep people accountable
政治の場における日和見主義を
12:25
for showing the people that we're not going to tolerate
許さないとすれば
12:27
politicians the opportunism in politics.
民主主義は失われます
12:29
So for me this is extremely important.
このことは私にとって非常に重要です
12:32
And I do believe that when we're discussing politics these days,
今日 政治を議論する際には
12:35
probably it makes sense
このような話をよく吟味することが
12:38
to look also at this type of a story.
大切だと思うのです
12:40
But also don't forget, any unveiling is also veiling.
忘れてはなりません
暴露は同時に遮蔽でもあるのです
12:43
[Regardless of] how transparent our governments want to be,
政府がいかに透明であろうとしても
12:47
they're going to be selectively transparent.
選択的にしか透明になれないのです
12:51
In a small country that could be my country,
これは実話ですが
12:53
but could be also your country,
-- 私の国 いや皆さんの国と言ってもいい --
12:55
they took a decision -- it is a real case story --
ある小さな国で
12:57
that all of the governmental decisions,
政府のすべての決定
12:59
discussions of the council of ministers,
大臣たちの議論を
13:01
were going to be published on the Internet
24時間後に
13:04
24 hours after the council discussions took place.
インターネットで公開すると決定しました
13:07
And the public was extremely all for it.
大衆は大喜びでした
13:12
So I had the opportunity to talk to the prime minister,
首相に会う機会があり
13:14
why he made this decision.
なぜそのように決めたか尋ねました
13:16
He said, "Listen, this is the best way
彼はこう言いました
「こうすれば大臣どもが
13:18
to keep the mouths of my ministers closed.
誰も意見しなくなるのさ
13:20
Because it's going to be very difficult for them to dissent
24時間後にこの情報が
13:24
knowing that 24 hours after
公開されると知ると
13:27
this is going to be on the public space,
反論しにくくなるからね」
13:29
and this is in a certain way going to be a political crisis."
これは確実に政治危機につながります
13:31
So when we talk about transparency,
私たちが透明性を言うとき
13:35
when we talk about openness,
公開性を口にするとき
13:37
I really do believe that what we should keep in mind
覚えておくべきは
13:38
is that what went right is what went wrong.
改善は改悪にもつながるということです
13:41
And this is Goethe, who is neither Bulgarian nor a political scientist,
次の言葉は ブルガリア人でもなければ
13:44
some centuries ago he said,
政治家でもなかった
ゲーテが数百年前に残した言葉です
13:48
"There is a big shadow where there is much light."
「明るい光のあるところには暗い影がある」
13:51
Thank you very much.
どうもありがとうございました
13:54
(Applause)
(拍手)
13:56
Translator:Haruo Nishinoh
Reviewer:shozo senda

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Ivan Krastev - Public intellectual
From his home base in Bulgaria, Ivan Krastev thinks about democracy -- and how to reframe it.

Why you should listen

Political scientist Ivan Krastev is watching the Euro crisis closely, fascinated by what it reveals about Europe's place in history: What does it mean for the democratic model? Will a fragmented Europe return to nationalist identity politics?

In his latest work, Krastev places recent events on a continuum of five revolutions over the past decades:

+ The socio-cultural revolution of the 1960s.
+ Market revolutions of the 1980s.
+ Central Europe in 1989 (which brought socio-cultural and market revolutions together).
+ The communications revolution.
+ And finally the revolution in neurosciences, which lays bare the irrationality and emotional manipulation in popular politics.

As a result of these five great changes, we've become extremely open and connected, while on the flipside cementing a mistrust of elites. Can democracy flourish when a mistrust of elites is a permanent feature?

Krastev is the chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, in Sofia, a research and analysis NGO.

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