11:10
TED@State Street

Roger Stein: A bold new way to fund drug research

ロジャー・スタイン: 薬剤研究のための画期的な資金調達法

Filmed:

信じられないかもしれませんが、今、潜在的に人の命を救う可能性のある薬が、約20年分、実験室で待機中です。なぜでしょう?実験する資金を調達できないからです。経済的リスクが高すぎるのです。ファイナンスの専門家であるロジャー・スタインは、リスク軽減について深く考え、MITの同僚と共に、何百もの薬を実験に進めるための、確実で新しい金融モデルを考案しました。 (TED@StateStreetで撮影)

- Financial management expert
Roger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding. Full bio

So this is a picture of my dad and me
これは 私と父の写真です
00:12
at the beach in Far Rockaway,
ファーロッカウェイのビーチ
00:16
or actually Rockaway Park.
ロッカウェイ公園かな
00:18
I'm the one with the blond hair.
ブロンドの髪が私で
00:20
My dad's the guy with the cigarette.
タバコを持っているのが父
00:23
It was the '60s. A lot of people smoked back then.
60年代 この頃は
みんな吸っていたんですよね
00:25
In the summer of 2009,
2009年の夏に
00:27
my dad was diagnosed with lung cancer.
父は肺ガンと診断されました
00:29
Cancer is one of those things
that actually touches everybody.
誰でも 癌にはドキッとしますよね
00:34
If you're a man in the United States of the America,
アメリカ合衆国の男性なら
00:37
you've got about a one in two chance
一生の内で癌と診断されるのは
00:40
of being diagnosed with cancer during your lifetime.
2人に1人
00:42
If you're a woman, you've got
about a one in three chance
女性なら 3人に1人が
00:45
of being diagnosed with cancer.
癌になります
00:48
Everybody knows somebody
誰もが
00:50
who's been diagnosed with cancer.
癌になった人を 
知っていますよね
00:51
Now, my dad's doing better today,
現在  私の父は快方に向っていますが
00:55
and part of the reason for that is that
その理由の一つは
00:56
he was able to participate in the trial
実験段階の新薬の
01:00
of an experimental new drug
臨床試験を
受けることができたからです
01:02
that happened to be specially formulated
その新薬は 特別に処方され
01:03
and very good for his particular kind of cancer.
彼の癌には  
とても良く効いたのですね
01:05
There are over 200 kinds of cancer.
癌には200以上の種類があります
01:06
And what I want to talk about today is
今日私がお話したいのは
どうしたら
01:10
how we can help more people like my dad,
父のような人を
より多く助けられるかについてです
01:12
because we have to change the way
we think about raising money
なぜなら 癌研究の資金集めについての
01:15
to fund cancer research.
考え方を変える必要があるからです
01:18
So a while after my dad was diagnosed,
父が癌だとわかった後 ある時
01:21
I was having coffee with my friend Andrew Lo.
私は 友人のアンドリュー・ローと
コーヒーを飲んでいました
01:23
He's the head of the Laboratory
for Financial Engineering at MIT,
彼は MITの金融工学の
研究室長です
01:26
where I also have a position,
私もそこで働いていて
01:29
and we were talking about cancer.
癌について話していました
01:31
And Andrew had been doing
his own bits of research,
アンドリューは ちょっとした研究を
続けていましたが
01:32
and one of the things that he had been told
他の人に教えられた事の
一つについて
01:35
and that he'd learned from studying the literature
文献を調べてみると
実に大きなボトルネックがあることが
01:37
was that there's actually a big bottleneck.
分かったのです
01:42
It's very difficult to develop new drugs,
新薬の開発は とても困難なものです
01:44
and the reason it's difficult to develop new drugs
難しい理由は
01:46
is because in the early stages of drug development,
新薬開発の初期段階においては
01:48
the drugs are very risky,
薬剤のリスクは非常に高く
01:50
and they're very expensive.
また とても費用がかかるからです
01:51
So Andrew asked me if I'd want to
そこで 私はアンドリューから
01:53
maybe work with him a bit,
彼の仕事を 
数学と分析学を使って
01:55
work on some of the math and the analytics
手伝ってもらえないか
01:56
and see if we could figure out
something we could do.
我々に出来る事を
見い出せないだろうかと頼まれました
01:57
Now I'm not a scientist.
私は科学者ではありません
02:01
You know, I don't know how to build a drug.
私には 薬剤の作り方は分からないし
02:03
And none of my coauthors, Andrew Lo
共著者のアンドリュー・ローも
02:05
or Jose Maria Fernandez or David Fagnan --
ホセ・マリア・ヘルナンデスも
デービッド・ファグナンも
02:07
none of those guys -- are scientists either.
科学者ではありません
02:10
We don't know the first thing about
how to make a cancer drug.
癌治療薬の作り方の
イロハも分からないのです
02:13
But we know a little bit about risk mitigation
でも リスクの軽減や
金融工学については
02:16
and a little bit about financial engineering,
多少知識があります
02:18
and so we started thinking, what could we do?
そこで考え始めました
我々に何が出来るだろう?
02:20
What I'm going to tell you about is some work
ここ数年に亘り
02:23
we've been doing over the last couple years
研究してきた事をお話します
02:25
that we think could fundamentally change the way
我々は それによって
癌その他の研究が
02:27
research for cancer and lots
of other things gets done.
根本的に変わるだろうと考えています
02:29
We want to let the research drive the funding,
我々は 研究が資金提供を促すように
したいのであって
02:33
not the other way around.
その逆ではありません
02:36
So in order to get started, let me tell you
まず 薬への資金提供とは
02:38
how you get a drug financed.
どういう事かお話しましょう
02:39
Imagine that you're in your lab --
想像して下さい 
あなたは科学者で
02:41
you're a scientist, you're not like me --
実験室にいます
02:43
you're a scientist, and you've developed
私と違って 科学者だから
02:45
a new compound that you think might be
癌患者の治療に有効かもしれない
02:46
therapeutic for somebody with cancer.
化合物を開発しました
02:49
Well, what you do is, you test in animals,
動物でテストし
02:52
you test in test tubes,
試験管でテストし
02:54
but there's this notion of going from the bench
でも 最終的には実験台から
02:55
to the bedside,
臨床への移行を目指します
02:57
and in order to get from the bench, the lab,
実験室の実験台から
02:58
to the bedside, to the patients,
ベッドにいる患者への投与に至るには
03:00
you've got to get the drug tested.
その薬をテストしなければなりません
03:02
And the way the drug gets tested is through a series
薬のテストは 基本的には
03:04
of, basically, experiments,
一連の実験です
03:06
through these large, they're called trials,
この治験と呼ばれる
03:07
that they do to determine whether the drug is safe
大がかりな実験で
その薬が安全かどうか
03:09
and whether it works and all these things.
そして 有効かどうかを決めるのです
03:12
So the FDA has a very specific protocol.
そこでFDAは 
とても具体的な実施要綱を作っています
03:14
In the first phase of this testing,
このテストの第1期は
03:16
which is called testing for toxicity,
毒性テストで
03:18
it's called Phase I.
フェーズ1と呼ばれます
03:20
In the first phase, you give
the drug to healthy people
健康な人に薬を与え 
実際に
03:22
and you see if it actually makes them sick.
具合が悪くならないかどうかを
見るのです
03:25
In other words, are the side effects just so severe
言葉を変えれば
どんなに良く効く薬でも
03:28
that no matter how much good it does,
副作用がものすごく強ければ
03:30
it's not going to be worth it?
価値が無いわけです
03:31
Does it cause heart attacks, kill people,
心臓発作で死んだり 
肝機能障害等を
03:33
liver failure, this kind of thing?
引き起こすかどうか
03:35
And it turns out, that's a pretty high hurdle.
それが起こるようなら
かなりハードルは高くなります
03:36
About a third of all drugs drop out at that point.
この時点で 約3分の1の薬は
脱落します
03:38
In the next phase, you test
to see if the drug's effective,
次の段階は
薬の有効性を見るテストです
03:41
and what you do there is you
give it to people with cancer
ここでは 癌患者に薬を投与します
03:44
and you see if it actually makes them better.
それで 実際に良くなるかを見るのです
03:46
And that's also a higher hurdle. People drop out.
さらに高いハードルですね
ここでは人が抜けていきます
03:47
And in the third phase, you actually
test it on a very large sample,
そして 第3段階で 
かなり大きなサンプルでテストします
03:49
and what you're trying to determine
is what the right dose is, and also,
適切な服用量や
今使われているものより良いかどうかを
03:52
is it better than what's available today?
決めようとするのです
03:55
If not, then why build it?
そうでなければ
作らないでしょ?
03:57
When you're done with all that,
すべてを終えて
03:59
what you have is a very small percentage of drugs
ごく僅かな割合の薬だけが
04:01
that start the process actually
come out the other side.
やっと実際に次のプロセスに行けるのです
04:04
So those blue bottles, those blue bottles save lives,
このブルーのボトル
これが命を救うのです
04:07
and they're also worth billions,
さらに 何十億ドルの価値があります
04:10
sometimes billions a year.
時には 1年に何十億ドル
04:12
So now here's a question:
ここで質問です
04:14
if I were to ask you, for example,
例えば 私があなた方に
04:16
to make a one-time investment of, say,
投資を1回お願いするとします
04:19
200 million dollars
そうですね
200万ドルで
04:21
to buy one of those bottles,
ボトルの1つを買うとしましょう
04:23
so 200 million dollars up front, one time,
これらのボトルの内の
04:25
to buy one of those bottles,
1つを買うのに200万ドル
04:27
I won't tell you which one it is,
私は どのボトルかは教えません
04:28
and in 10 years, I'll tell you whether
you have one of the blue ones.
10年後に あなたが買ったのが
ブルーのボトルだったのかを教えます
04:30
Does that sound like a good deal for anybody?
儲かる話に聞こえます?
04:34
No. No, right?
ダメ…ですよね?
04:36
And of course, it's a very, very risky trial position,
もちろん
ものすごくリスクのある試みです
04:37
and that's why it's very hard to get funding,
だから 
ものすごく資金を集めにくい
04:39
but to a first approximation,
でも これが我々の提案の
04:41
that's actually the proposal.
原点となるところです
04:42
You have to fund these things
これらのテストの最初の段階から
04:44
from the early stages on. It takes a long time.
資金を提供しなければならないので
長い時間がかかります
04:46
So Andrew said to me, he said,
アンドリューが私に言いました
04:49
"What if we stop thinking about these as drugs?
薬だと思わなければどう?
04:52
What if we start thinking about
them as financial assets?"
金融資産だと考えてみるのはどうかな?
04:54
They've got really weird payoff
structures and all that,
ペイオフ構造は 実に怪しげですが
04:57
but let's throw everything we know
我々の金融工学の
04:59
about financial engineering at them.
知識を全部捨てましょう
05:01
Let's see if we can use all the tricks of the trade
トレードの技を駆使し
05:02
to figure out how to make these drugs
これらの薬が金融資産になりえるか
05:04
work as financial assets?
考えてみましょう
05:07
Let's create a giant fund.
まず 巨大なファンドを作ります
05:10
In finance, we know what to do
リスクのある資産をどうするかは
05:11
with assets that are risky.
分かってますよね
05:13
You put them in a portfolio
ポートフォリオに入れて
05:14
and you try to smooth out the returns.
利益の変動を平坦にします
05:16
So we did some math, and it turned out
そこで 計算してみると
05:17
you could make this work,
but in order to make it work,
上手く行くことが分りました
しかし そのためには
05:19
you need about 80 to 150 drugs.
約80~150の薬が必要になります
05:21
Now the good news is, there's plenty of drugs
幸いにも
テスト待ちの薬は
05:24
that are waiting to be tested.
たくさんあります
05:26
We've been told that there's a backlog
すでにお話したように
05:27
of about 20 years of drugs
約20年分の薬が 資金が無いために
05:29
that are waiting to be tested but can't be funded.
テストを受けられずに
待っているのです
05:32
In fact, that early stage of the funding process,
実際に フェーズ1の
05:34
that Phase I and pre-clinical stuff,
臨床前の薬に資金提供するプロセスの
05:36
that's actually, in the industry,
called the Valley of Death
初期段階は 産業界では
「死の谷」と呼ばれています
05:39
because it's where drugs go to die.
薬が死にゆく所だからです
05:41
It's very hard to for them to get through there,
次の段階に進むのは
非常に難しく
05:43
and of course, if you can't get through there,
you can't get to the later stages.
もちろん パスしなければ
次の段階には行けません
05:44
So we did this math, and we figured out, okay,
計算をして割り出してみると
05:48
well, you know, you need about 80 to, say, 150,
一つパスするには薬が
約80~150位は必要だと
05:50
or something like that, drugs.
分かりました
05:53
And then we did a little more math, and we said,
そこで 我々はもう少し計算して
05:54
okay, well that's a fund of about
30~150億ドルの資金が
05:56
three to 15 billion dollars.
必要だと言いました
05:58
So we kind of created a new problem
以前の問題を一つ解決するのに
06:01
by solving the old one.
新たな問題が浮上したのです
06:04
We were able to get rid of the risk,
but now we need a lot of capital,
リスクの軽減はできましたが
新たに多額の資金が必要になりました
06:05
and there's only one place to get that kind of capital,
そのような資金を調達できるのは
06:07
the capital markets.
資本市場だけです
06:09
Venture capitalists don't have it.
Philanthropies don't have it.
ベンチャーキャピタルにも
慈善団体にもありません
06:11
But we have to figure out how we can
get people in the capital markets,
今までしなかった人達が
投資したくなるような
06:13
who traditionally don't invest in this stuff,
投資家を集める方法を資本市場でー
06:15
to want to invest in this stuff.
見出さなければなりません
06:17
So again, financial engineering was helpful here.
ここで再び 金融工学が役に立ちました
06:19
Imagine the megafund actually starts empty,
巨大ファンドが ゼロから始めて
06:22
and what it does is it issues some debt
いくらか借金したり
06:25
and some equity,
株を発行して
06:27
and that generates cash flow.
キャッシュフローを
生み 出します
06:29
That cash flow is used, then, to buy
これは必要とする
06:30
that big portfolio of drugs that you need,
薬開発の大きな
ポートフォリオを買うのに使われ
06:32
and those drugs start working their way
それらの薬は
06:34
through that approval process,
承認プロセスを経て
06:35
and each time they go through
a next phase of approval,
承認の段階が進む度に
06:37
they gain value.
価値が増えて行くのです
06:39
And most of them don't make it,
ほとんどがダメになりますが
06:39
but a few of them do,
成功するものもあり
06:41
and with the ones that gain value, you can sell some,
価値を得たものは売れます
06:42
and when you sell them,
それを売ることによって
06:45
you have money to pay the interest on those bonds,
債権に対する利子の支払いもでき
06:46
but you also have money to
fund the next round of trials.
次のテストに投資するお金も
できるわけです
06:48
It's almost self-funding.
ほとんど 自己資金ですね
06:50
You do that for the course of the transaction,
一連の取引通りにやって
06:52
and when you're done, you liquidate the portfolio,
終わったら
ポートフォリオを清算し
06:55
pay back the bonds, and you can
債権を回収し
06:57
give the equity holders a nice return.
株主に報酬を与えることができます
06:58
So that was the theory, and we talked about it
理屈はこうで
我々は少しばかり話し合い
07:00
for a bit, we did a bunch of experiments,
たくさん実験を行い
07:02
and then we said, let's really try to test it.
そして実際に
試してみようという事になり
07:04
We spent the next two years doing research.
それから2年間を研究に費やしました
07:07
We talked to hundreds of experts in drug financing
多くの薬剤金融や
ベンチャーキャピタルの
07:10
and venture capital.
専門家と話をして
07:13
We talked to people who have developed drugs.
薬剤開発者とも話し
07:15
We talked to pharmaceutical companies.
製薬会社にも話をしました
07:17
We actually looked at the data for drugs,
2000以上の承認・非承認薬や
07:19
over 2,000 drugs that had been approved or denied
脱落した薬剤のデータにも
07:22
or withdrawn,
実際に目を通して
07:25
and we also ran millions of simulations.
何百万回もシミュレーションしました
07:26
And all that actually took a lot of time.
かなりの時間を費やしましたね
07:29
But when we were done, what we found was something that was sort of surprising.
その結果は
ちょっと驚きでした
07:32
It was actually feasible to structure that fund
実は 適した資金構造を
07:35
such that when you were done structuring it,
作るのは可能で
07:37
you could actually produce low-risk bonds
実際に 債権者にとって魅力的な
リスクの低い
07:39
that would be attractive to bond holders,
実際に 債権者にとって魅力的な
リスクの低い
07:42
that would give you yields of
about five to eight percent,
約5~8%の利回りの債券が作れるし
07:43
and you could produce equity
約12%の利回りの
07:46
that would give equity holders
about a 12-percent return.
株式を発行することもできます
07:47
Now those returns aren't going to be attractive
このくらいの利益では
ベンチャーキャピリストには
07:50
to a venture capitalist.
魅力的ではないですけどね
07:51
Venture capitalists are those guys
who want to make those big bets
彼らは もっと大きな賭けで
07:53
and get those billion dollar payoffs.
何十億ドルのペイオフを求めています
07:55
But it turns out, there are lots of other folks
that would be interested in that.
でも こういう投資に興味がある人も
たくさん居るのです
07:57
That's right in the investment sweet spot
年金基金や 401(K)プランなど
08:00
of pension funds and 401(k) plans
いわゆる「スウィートスポット」に
08:02
and all this other stuff.
まさに当てはまるのです
08:04
So we published some articles
in the academic press.
そこで 学術誌に記事を載せました
08:06
We published articles in medical journals.
医学ジャーナルにも
08:08
We published articles in finance journals.
金融ジャーナルにも
08:11
But it wasn't until we actually
しかし 有名雑誌の
08:13
got the popular press interested in this
関心を引くまでは
08:15
that we began to get some traction.
なかなか分かってもらえませんでした
08:16
We wanted to do something more than
just make people aware of it, though.
単に みんなに
知ってもらうだけではなく
08:19
We wanted people to get involved.
皆さんの参加を
望んでいたのです
08:22
So what we did was, we actually
took all of our computer code
そこで 我々は
コンピューター・プログラムを
08:23
and made that available online
オープンソースライセンスの下で
08:25
under an open-source license
オンラインで 誰でも
08:27
to anybody that wanted it.
使えるようにしました
08:28
And you guys can download it today
あなた方も
独自の実験をしたければ
08:30
if you want to run your own experiments
to see if this would work.
ダウンロードして
上手くいくか確認できます
08:32
And that was really effective, because people
これは実に効果的でした
08:34
that didn't believe our assumptions
なぜなら 我々の仮説を信じない人も
08:35
could try their own assumptions
and see how it would work.
自分の仮説を試してみて
どうなるかを見ることができるから
08:37
Now there's an obvious problem, which is,
さて 明らかな問題は
08:40
is there enough money in
the world to fund this stuff?
この資金は 
この世に十分にあるのか?です
08:42
I've told you there's enough drugs,
前に 薬剤は十分にあると言いました
でも お金は?
08:44
but is there enough money?
前に 薬剤は十分にあると言いました
でも お金は?
08:46
There's 100 trillion dollars of capital
今現在 確定利債に
08:48
currently invested in fixed-income securities.
100兆ドルの資金が投資されています
08:50
That's a hundred thousand billion.
10億ドルの10万倍です
08:54
There's plenty of money.
ものすごいお金です
08:58
(Laughter)
(笑)
08:59
But what we realized was that it's
more than just money that's required.
必要以上のお金があったのです
09:03
We had to get people motivated,
people to get involved,
人々のモチベーションを高め 
参加を促し
09:06
and people had to understand this.
この仕組みを
理解してもらう必要がありました
09:08
And so we started thinking about all
the different things that could go wrong.
そこで 上手くいかない要因についても
色々と考え始めました
09:10
What are all the challenges to doing
this that might get in the way?
実行していく上で
障害になる事は何か?
09:13
And we had a long list, and so what we did was
長いリストを作って
09:16
we assigned a bunch of people, including ourselves,
我々を含め たくさんの人で
09:18
different pieces of this problem,
この課題の諸々を分担したのです
09:21
and we said, could you start
a work stream on credit risk?
信用リスクについて始めてくれる?
09:23
Could you start a work stream
on the regulatory aspects?
法規制の面について始めてくれる?
09:26
Could you start a work stream on
また ある人には
09:28
how you would actually manage so many projects?
これほど多くのプロジェクトを
どうやって管理するか?について
09:29
And we had all these experts get together
これらの専門家に集まってもらい
09:32
and do these different work streams,
様々な課題に取り組んで
09:34
and then we held a conference.
我々はカンファレンスを開きました
09:35
The conference was held over
the summer, this past summer.
去年の夏です
招待者だけのカンファレンスでした
09:38
It was an invitation-only conference.
去年の夏です
招待者だけのカンファレンスでした
09:40
It was sponsored by the American Cancer Society
アメリカ癌協会主催で
09:42
and done in collaboration
国立癌研究所との
09:44
with the National Cancer Institute.
提携で行われたのです
09:46
And we had experts from every field
that we thought would be important,
我々が重要だと考える
各分野の専門家に来てもらい
09:48
including the government, including
政府も 研究所の人達等も
09:51
people that run research centers and so on,
含まれていました
09:53
and for two days they sat around
and heard the reports
2日間 5つの研究の報告を聞き
09:54
from those five work streams,
and they talked about it.
話し合いました
09:56
It was the first time
この薬剤開発投資を実現させる
09:58
that the people who could actually make this happen
可能性のある人達が
10:00
sat across the table from each other
膝を交えて話すのは
10:01
and had these conversations.
初めてでした
10:03
Now these conferences, it's typical to have a dinner,
こういうカンファレンスでは 
たいていディナーがあるのですが
10:05
and at that dinner,
ディナーの時に
10:09
you kind of get to know each other,
ちょうど今の私達のように
10:10
sort of like what we're doing here.
お互いを知り合うのです
10:12
I happened to look out the window,
その時に 窓の外を見たら
10:13
and hand on my heart, I looked out the window
胸に手を当てて 外を見たら
10:15
on the night of this conference --
it was the summertime --
カンファレンスの夜にー
夏時間でしたがー
10:17
and that's what I saw, it was a double rainbow.
二重の虹が見えたのです
10:18
So I'd like to think it was a good sign.
これは良いサインだったと思いたい
10:21
Since the conference, we've got people working
そのカンファレンス以来
10:24
between Paris and San Francisco,
パリからサンフランシスコに至るまで
10:26
lots of different folks working on this
色んな分野の人達と一緒に研究し
10:28
to try to see if we can really make it happen.
実現の可能性を検討してきました
10:29
We're not looking to start a fund,
まだ基金はスタートしていませんが
10:32
but we want somebody else to do this.
誰かにやってもらいたいのです
10:33
Because, again, I'm not a scientist.
なぜなら また言いますが
私は科学者ではありませんから
10:35
I can't build a drug.
薬を作ることはできません
10:38
I'm never going to have enough money
これらのテストの一つにでも
10:40
to fund even one of those trials.
投資するのに十分なお金はありません
10:41
But all of us together, with our 401(k)'s,
しかし 私達みんなで
401(K)や
10:44
with our 529 plans, with our pension plans,
529プランや 年金プランを使って
10:47
all of us together can actually fund hundreds of trials
私達みんなが一緒にやれば 
何百のテストも可能になり
10:49
and get paid well for doing it
利益を得ることもできて
10:52
and save millions of lives like my dad.
私の父のような何万人もの命を
救うことができるのです
10:54
Thank you.
ありがとうございました
10:56
(Applause)
(拍手)
10:59
Translated by Yumiko Sakata
Reviewed by Tomoyuki Suzuki

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About the Speaker:

Roger Stein - Financial management expert
Roger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding.

Why you should listen

Roger Stein is a senior lecturer in finance at MIT's Sloan School of Management and a research affiliate at the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering. He is also the former chief analytics officer at State Street Global Exchange. He has been working in risk modeling and financial prediction for almost 25 years; his products and services are used widely in industry and have become benchmarks in banking and finance. With MIT colleagues, he is currently collaborating on a new model that uses modern risk management methods and financial engineering techniques to change the way new drug research is funded.

Previously he was managing director of research and academic relations globally for Moody’s Corporation, and prior to that was president of Moody’s Research Labs. He has a Ph.D. from New York University, has coauthored two full-length texts on applied analytics, and has written more than 50 academic articles and papers. He has also been practicing Aikido since 1980.

More profile about the speaker
Roger Stein | Speaker | TED.com