06:50
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

ダン・ギルバート: 未来の自分に対する心理

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「人間というのは未完成のくせに、自分たちは完成したと勘違いしているものだ。」ダン・ギルバートが紹介するのは、彼が「歴史の終わり幻想」と呼ぶ現象についての最近の研究です。将来の自分は、ずっと今の自分のままだろうと想像してしまう現象です。(でもそうは行きません。)

- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

At every stage of our lives
人生の どの段階においても
00:12
we make decisions that will profoundly influence
私たちは その後の人生に
大いに影響する
00:14
the lives of the people we're going to become,
決断をするわけですが
00:18
and then when we become those people,
いざ「その後」になってみると
00:20
we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
過去の自分の決断に
喜ぶとは限りません
00:21
So young people pay good money
だから若者は10代の頃に
00:24
to get tattoos removed that teenagers
大枚はたいて彫ったタトゥーを
00:26
paid good money to get.
また大枚はたいて除去します
00:29
Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people
中高年が離婚に急ぐ相手は
00:30
who young adults rushed to marry.
若い頃 結婚に急いだ相手です
00:33
Older adults work hard to lose
高齢者が懸命に減らそうとしているのは
00:35
what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.
中年の頃 懸命に増やそうとしたものです
00:38
On and on and on.
ずっと同じパターンです
00:41
The question is, as a psychologist,
that fascinates me is,
心理学者の私が夢中になっている
疑問は これです
00:42
why do we make decisions
なぜ私たちは 未来の自分が
00:45
that our future selves so often regret?
後悔することになるような
決断をするのか
00:47
Now, I think one of the reasons --
これからご説明しますが
00:50
I'll try to convince you today —
その理由の一つは
00:52
is that we have a fundamental misconception
時間の持つ力について
私たちが根本的に
00:54
about the power of time.
思い違いをしているせいだと考えています
00:56
Every one of you knows that the rate of change
人生が進むにつれ変化が遅くなるのは
00:59
slows over the human lifespan,
皆さん ご存じですね
01:01
that your children seem to change by the minute
子どもは分単位で
変化しているように見えますが
01:03
but your parents seem to change by the year.
親の変化は年単位にしか
見えないというわけです
01:06
But what is the name of this magical point in life
人生における この不思議な分岐点―
変化が突然
01:09
where change suddenly goes
猛スピードから ノロノロになるのは
01:12
from a gallop to a crawl?
いつなのでしょう
01:14
Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?
10代のうち? 中年になってから?
01:16
Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,
老年期?
その答えは 何と
01:19
for most people, is now,
ほとんどの人にとって「今」です
01:22
wherever now happens to be.
どんな時も「今」なのです
01:24
What I want to convince you today
皆さんに納得していただきたいのは
01:27
is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,
私たちが皆
常に錯覚を抱えているということです
01:29
an illusion that history, our personal history,
自分の過去 自分の歴史が終わり
01:32
has just come to an end,
ずっとなるはずだった―
01:35
that we have just recently become
本当の自分に
最近なったばかり
01:37
the people that we were always meant to be
残りの人生は
このままの自分で行く
01:39
and will be for the rest of our lives.
という錯覚です
01:42
Let me give you some data to back up that claim.
この主張を裏付けるデータがあります
01:44
So here's a study of change in people's
人の価値観の
経年変化を調べた研究です
01:46
personal values over time.
喜び 成功 誠実さ という
01:49
Here's three values.
3つの価値です
01:51
Everybody here holds all of them,
皆さん3つとも お持ちですね
01:53
but you probably know that as you grow,
成長に伴い 年齢を重ねるにつれ
01:54
as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
3つのバランスが変わるというのも
ご存じでしょう
01:56
So how does it do so?
何故 そうなるのでしょうか
02:00
Well, we asked thousands of people.
何千もの人に尋ねてみました
02:02
We asked half of them to predict for us
半分の人には 今後10年で
02:04
how much their values would
change in the next 10 years,
価値観が どれくらい変わるか
予想してもらいました
02:05
and the others to tell us
もう半分の人には
02:08
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years.
過去10年で価値観が
どれくらい変わったか聞きました
02:10
And this enabled us to do a really
interesting kind of analysis,
これによって
実に興味深い分析ができました
02:13
because it allowed us to compare the predictions
たとえば18歳の人たちの予想と
02:16
of people, say, 18 years old,
28歳の人たちの振り返りとを
02:19
to the reports of people who were 28,
比較するといった具合で
02:21
and to do that kind of analysis
throughout the lifespan.
あらゆる年代を網羅した分析ができました
02:23
Here's what we found.
結果はこうです
02:25
First of all, you are right,
まず当たっていたのは
02:27
change does slow down as we age,
年齢と共に
変化は緩やかになるということです
02:28
but second, you're wrong,
しかし間違っていたのは
02:31
because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.
そのペースが思ったほど遅くないのです
02:33
At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,
データによると18~68歳の
どの年齢でも
02:36
people vastly underestimated how much change
今後10年間で経験する変化を
02:40
they would experience over the next 10 years.
大幅に少なく見積もりました
02:44
We call this the "end of history" illusion.
これを「歴史の終わり幻想」と
呼んでいます
02:47
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,
この結果の大きさを示すために
02:50
you can connect these two lines,
2つをつなげてみましょう
02:52
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds
18歳が予測する変化は
02:53
anticipate changing only as much
50歳の報告した変化と
02:56
as 50-year-olds actually do.
同じだということが わかります
02:58
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.
価値観だけではありません
他のどんなことでもそうです
03:01
For example, personality.
たとえば性格
03:05
Many of you know that psychologists now claim
性格特性を5つの因子に分けて
03:07
that there are five fundamental
dimensions of personality:
現代の心理学者が論じているのは
ご存じでしょう
03:09
neuroticism, openness to experience,
情緒不安定性
開放性
03:13
agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
調和性 外向性
勤勉性です
03:15
Again, we asked people how much they expected
今一度 尋ねました
今後10年間で
03:19
to change over the next 10 years,
どのくらい変化すると思うか
03:21
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years,
そして過去10年間で
どのくらい変化したか
03:23
and what we found,
結果は こちらです
03:26
well, you're going to get used to
seeing this diagram over and over,
同じ図が何度も出てきますよ
03:27
because once again the rate of change
やはり 年齢と共に
03:30
does slow as we age,
変化は緩やかになりますが
03:32
but at every age, people underestimate
今後10年間で
自分の性格が どれくらい変わるか
03:33
how much their personalities will change
どの年齢でも
03:37
in the next decade.
少なく見積もっています
03:39
And it isn't just ephemeral things
価値観や性格のように
03:41
like values and personality.
一過性のものだけではありません
03:44
You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,
好き嫌い
つまり基本的な好みについて
03:45
their basic preferences.
聞いたっていいですよ
03:48
For example, name your best friend,
たとえば 一番の親友や
03:50
your favorite kind of vacation,
お気に入りの休暇の過ごし方
03:53
what's your favorite hobby,
お気に入りの趣味
03:54
what's your favorite kind of music.
お気に入りの音楽を挙げてもらいます
03:56
People can name these things.
答えられますよね
03:58
We ask half of them to tell us,
半分の人たちへの質問は
03:59
"Do you think that that will
change over the next 10 years?"
「今後10年で変わると思いますか?」
04:01
and half of them to tell us,
残りの半分への質問は
04:05
"Did that change over the last 10 years?"
「過去10年で変わりましたか?」
04:06
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,
結果は もう二度も
ご覧になった通りですが
04:09
and here it is again:
これも同じです
04:11
people predict that the friend they have now
予想では 現在の友達が
04:13
is the friend they'll have in 10 years,
今後10年間も友達で
04:16
the vacation they most enjoy now is the one
現在の楽しい休暇の過ごし方は
04:18
they'll enjoy in 10 years,
10年経っても同じですが
04:20
and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,
10年後の人たちは
口を揃えて言うのです
04:21
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
「いやぁ 変わっちゃったよ」
04:24
Does any of this matter?
何か問題でしょうか
04:27
Is this just a form of mis-prediction
that doesn't have consequences?
何も影響を生じない
単なる予測のミスでしょうか
04:28
No, it matters quite a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
いいえ 大問題です
理由をいくつか説明します
04:31
It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
これが重要な局面での
私たちの意思決定を惑わせます
04:34
Bring to mind right now for yourself
今 好きなミュージシャンと
04:38
your favorite musician today
10年前 好きだったミュージシャンを
04:39
and your favorite musician 10 years ago.
思い浮かべてください
04:42
I put mine up on the screen to help you along.
画面には私の例を挙げておきました
04:44
Now we asked people
さて 人々に
04:46
to predict for us, to tell us
答えてもらいました
04:48
how much money they would pay right now
現在 好きなミュージシャンが
04:50
to see their current favorite musician
10年後に開くコンサートのために
04:53
perform in concert 10 years from now,
今 いくら払うかと聞いたところ
04:55
and on average, people said they would pay
そのチケット代の平均額は
04:58
129 dollars for that ticket.
129ドルでした
05:00
And yet, when we asked them
how much they would pay
そして10年前に好きだった人が
05:03
to see the person who was their favorite
今日 演奏するのを見るのに
05:06
10 years ago perform today,
いくら払うかと聞いたところ
05:08
they say only 80 dollars.
答えは たったの80ドル
05:10
Now, in a perfectly rational world,
理屈どおりに行けば
05:12
these should be the same number,
両者は同額になるはずですが
05:14
but we overpay for the opportunity
私たちは不変性を多く見積るために
05:16
to indulge our current preferences
現在の好みを満たす可能性に
05:18
because we overestimate their stability.
お金を出しすぎてしまうのです
05:20
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,
何故こうなるのかは
明らかになっていませんが
05:24
but it probably has to do
おそらくは
05:26
with the ease of remembering
思い出す容易さと
想像する難しさの
05:28
versus the difficulty of imagining.
相対的な差が関係しています
05:30
Most of us can remember
who we were 10 years ago,
10年前の自分のことなら
思い出せますが
05:32
but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,
これから先の自分を想像するのは難しい
05:35
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine,
すると私たちは誤って
想像が難しいということは
05:38
it's not likely to happen.
起きないのだろうと考えます
05:41
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"
残念でした
「想像できない」と言うのは
05:43
they're usually talking about
their own lack of imagination,
その人の想像力が
欠如しているという話であって
05:46
and not about the unlikelihood
思い描いた出来事が
05:49
of the event that they're describing.
起きないということには なりません
05:50
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.
つまり 時間とは強力なものだ
ということです
05:53
It transforms our preferences.
私たちの好みを変え
05:57
It reshapes our values.
価値観を新たにし
05:59
It alters our personalities.
性格を変えてしまいます
06:01
We seem to appreciate this fact,
私たちが この事実を認めるのは
06:02
but only in retrospect.
後になってからです
06:05
Only when we look backwards do we realize
後から振り返った時にだけ
06:06
how much change happens in a decade.
10年間で どれほど変化したか
気づくのです
06:09
It's as if, for most of us,
ほとんどの人にとって
06:12
the present is a magic time.
今という時は まるで魔法の時なのです
06:14
It's a watershed on the timeline.
それは時の流れの分岐点
06:16
It's the moment at which we finally
自分が いよいよ
06:18
become ourselves.
本当の自分になる瞬間です
06:20
Human beings are works in progress
人間というのは未完成なくせに
06:23
that mistakenly think they're finished.
自分たちは完成したと
勘違いしているものです
06:25
The person you are right now
現在のあなたは
06:28
is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary
過去の どのあなたとも同じように
06:30
as all the people you've ever been.
はかない 束の間の存在です
06:34
The one constant in our life is change.
人生において変わらないのは
「変わる」ということだけなのです
06:36
Thank you.
ありがとうございました
06:40
(Applause)
(拍手)
06:42
Translated by Emi Kamiya
Reviewed by Yuko Yoshida

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About the Speaker:

Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com