18:41
TED2005

James Surowiecki: The power and the danger of online crowds

ジェイムズ・スロウィッキー: ソーシャルメディアの転換期

Filmed:

ジェイムズ・スロウィッキーは2005年の津波で、YouTube、ブログ、インスタントメッセンジャーや携帯メールなどのソーシャルメディアが世界のニュースを集めるための重要な役割を担い、同時に悲劇から個人の思い出を救ったとして、その瞬間に焦点を当てて述べている。

- Finance journalist
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker. Full bio

This was in an area called Wellawatta, a prime residential area in Colombo.
コロンボのウェラワッタという高級住宅地で
00:19
We stood on the railroad tracks
友人宅とビーチの間を走る
00:23
that ran between my friend's house and the beach.
線路に私たちは立っていた
00:25
The tracks are elevated about eight feet from the waterline normally,
その線路は普段
水面から2.5メートル程かさ上げされているが
00:28
but at that point the water had receded
そのときは1メートル程
00:31
to a level three or four feet below normal.
潮位が下がっていた
00:33
I'd never seen the reef here before.
初めてそこのサンゴを目にし
00:36
There were fish caught in rock pools left behind by the receding water.
引潮による潮だまりには魚が取り残されていた
00:38
Some children jumped down and ran to the rock pools with bags.
子供たちはそこに飛び込んで
00:43
They were trying to catch fish.
袋に魚を獲ろうとしていた
00:47
No one realized that this was a very bad idea.
それが災いを招くことは誰も知らずに・・
00:49
The people on the tracks just continued to watch them.
線路に立つ人々はただ彼らを眺めていた
00:52
I turned around to check on my friend's house.
私は友人宅に引き返そうとしたその時
00:55
Then someone on the tracks screamed.
誰かが叫んだ
00:58
Before I could turn around, everyone on the tracks was screaming and running.
すると 一目散に誰もが叫び逃げ出した
01:00
The water had started coming back. It was foaming over the reef.
サンゴに激しくぶつかりながら 潮が戻ってきたのだ
01:04
The children managed to run back onto the tracks.
子供たちはなんとか線路まで戻ったが
01:08
No one was lost there. But the water continued to climb.
波はどんどん押し寄せてくる
01:12
In about two minutes, it had reached the level of the railroad tracks
2分後には線路にまで達し さらにそれを超えてきた
01:16
and was coming over it. We had run about 100 meters by this time.
この時点で私たちは100メートルは走ったが
01:19
It continued to rise.
波はまだ押し寄せる
01:23
I saw an old man standing at his gate, knee-deep in water, refusing to move.
老人がひざ丈まで水に浸かりながらも逃げずにいる
01:25
He said he'd lived his whole life there by the beach,
彼は「今までここで生きてきた
01:30
and that he would rather die there than run.
逃げるなら死んだほうがましだ!」と叫び
01:33
A boy broke away from his mother to run back into his house
少年は母親を振りほどき
01:36
to get his dog, who was apparently afraid.
恐怖におびえる自分の犬を助けに走り
01:39
An old lady, crying, was carried out of her house and up the road by her son.
老女は息子に抱えられ家から逃げる
01:42
The slum built on the railroad reservation
海と線路の間にあったスラム街は
01:47
between the sea and the railroad tracks was completely swept away.
完全に波にさらわれた
01:50
Since this was a high-risk location, the police had warned the residents,
危険地帯の住民には警報が出されており
01:54
and no one was there when the water rose.
逃げ遅れた者はいなかったが
01:57
But they had not had any time to evacuate any belongings.
荷物を持って逃げる時間はなかった
01:59
For hours afterwards, the sea was strewn with bits of wood for miles around --
数時間後にはスラム街からのがれきが
02:03
all of this was from the houses in the slum.
海水とともにあたり中に散らばり
02:07
When the waters subsided, it was as if it had never existed.
水が引いたときには 跡形もなくなっていた
02:10
This may seem hard to believe --
たくさんのニュースを目にしていなければ
02:16
unless you've been reading lots and lots of news reports --
信じ難いかもしれないが 津波の後も
02:18
but in many places, after the tsunami, villagers were still terrified.
多くの場所で 住民はまだ恐れていた
02:20
When what was a tranquil sea swallows up people, homes
穏やかだった海は 突然 無慈悲にも
02:24
and long-tail boats -- mercilessly, without warning --
人々や家々 ボートまでをも飲み込み
02:27
and no one can tell you anything reliable about whether another one is coming,
次の津波が来るのかどうか 誰もわからない
02:29
I'm not sure you'd want to calm down either.
それを知ってどうなるかもわからないが
02:33
One of the scariest things about the tsunami
あの津波の恐ろしさは
02:36
that I've not seen mentioned is the complete lack of information.
情報がまるでなかったということであろう
02:38
This may seem minor, but it is terrifying to hear rumor after rumor
些細なことのようだが 次の津波は午後1時ぴったりに
02:42
after rumor that another tidal wave, bigger than the last,
いや 今夜かも
いやいや たぶん・・と、
02:45
will be coming at exactly 1 p.m., or perhaps tonight, or perhaps ...
噂が噂を呼ぶのは 実際かなりの恐怖を煽る
02:48
You don't even know if it is safe to go back down to the water,
病院へ向かうため ボートに乗ることが
02:53
to catch a boat to the hospital.
安全かどうかさえわからない
02:56
We think that Phi Phi hospital was destroyed.
ファイファイ病院は波でやられただろう
02:58
We think this boat is going to Phuket hospital,
このボートはプーケット病院に向かうが
03:00
but if it's too dangerous to land at its pier,
波止場につけるのが危険すぎるなら
03:03
then perhaps it will go to Krabi instead, which is more protected.
代わりにもっと安全なクラビに向かうだろう
03:05
We don't think another wave is coming right away.
次の津波がすぐに来ることはないだろうから
03:09
At the Phi Phi Hill Resort,
ファイファイ・ヒル・リゾートで
03:12
I was tucked into the corner furthest away from the television,
私はテレビから遠くの部屋の隅に押し込まれたが
03:14
but I strained to listen for information.
テレビからの情報に耳をそばだてていた
03:17
They reported that there was an 8.5 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra,
その情報によると スマトラでM8.5の地震が起き
03:19
which triggered the massive tsunami.
それがあの巨大津波を引き起こした
03:22
Having this news was comforting in some small way
ニュースから私たちは一体何が起きたのか知り
03:24
to understand what had just happened to us.
少しは安心することができた
03:26
However, the report focused on what had already occurred
しかし その内容は何が起こったのか そればかりで
03:28
and offered no information on what to expect now.
今後何が起こるのかはわからなかった
03:31
In general, everything was merely hearsay and rumor,
すべては単なる噂にすぎず
03:34
and not a single person I spoke to for over 36 hours
私が36時間以上 人に訊ねまわっても
03:37
knew anything with any certainty.
誰も確かなことは知らなかった
03:40
Those were two accounts of the Asian tsunami from two Internet blogs
アジアの津波の後に急増したブログから
03:43
that essentially sprang up after it occurred.
津波の様子を紹介しました
03:49
I'm now going to show you two video segments from the tsunami
ブログでも紹介されていた
03:52
that also were shown on blogs.
津波の映像を2本お見せします
03:57
I should warn you, they're pretty powerful.
かなり衝撃的です
03:59
One from Thailand, and the second one from Phuket as well.
タイの映像
そして 同じくプーケットの映像です
04:01
(Screaming)
(叫び声)
04:05
Voice 1: It's coming in. It's coming again.
声1: 来る!また来るぞ!
04:19
Voice 2: It's coming again?
声2: またか?!
04:22
Voice 1: Yeah. It's coming again.
声1: ああ また来てる!
04:24
Voice 2: Come get inside here.
声2: 中に入ろう!
04:26
Voice 1: It's coming again. Voice 2: New wave?
声1: また波来たぞ! 声2: またか!
04:30
Voice 1: It's coming again. New wave!
声1: そうだ!次の波が来てる!
04:35
[Unclear]
(叫び声)
04:40
(Screaming)
まだあそこに人がいるぞ!
04:44
They called me out here.
このサイトに載っていた動画でした
waveofdestruction.org
05:05
James Surowiecki: Phew. Those were both on this site: waveofdestruction.org.
ブログの世界は 津波の前後で大きく変わりました
05:21
In the world of blogs, there's going to be before the tsunami and after the tsunami,
津波に引き続いて起こったことは何かと言えば
05:27
because one of the things that happened in the wake of the tsunami was that,
最初こそ -- 初日こそブログには
05:31
although initially -- that is, in that first day --
実況の報告もビデオもまったくありませんでしたが
05:35
there was actually a kind of dearth of live reporting, there was a dearth of live video
そのために
05:37
and some people complained about this.
「ブログにはがっかりした」と
不満を漏らす人もいたほどです
05:41
They said, "The blogsters let us down."
その後2, 3 日もすると
05:43
What became very clear was that,
膨大な情報が溢れかえり
起きたことの全てが
05:46
within a few days, the outpouring of information was immense,
迫力をもって描き出されていることが
はっきりしたのです
05:48
and we got a complete and powerful picture of what had happened
これまでにはなかったことでした
05:53
in a way that we never had been able to get before.
それを行ったのは
ばらばらで 実質的に組織されていない
05:58
And what you had was a group of essentially unorganized, unconnected
ライターやビデオ・ブロガーなどで
情報の集積によって
06:01
writers, video bloggers, etc., who were able to come up with
この災害の現場の様子を描き出しました
06:04
a collective portrait of a disaster that gave us a much better sense
それは主流のメディアの情報よりも
ずっと分かりやすかったのです
06:09
of what it was like to actually be there than the mainstream media could give us.
故に あの津波は
ブログが本領を発揮し始めた
06:13
And so in some ways the tsunami can be seen as a sort of seminal moment,
歴史的なの瞬間だったとも言えるでしょう
06:18
a moment in which the blogosphere came, to a certain degree, of age.
さて このような高尚で
06:22
Now, I'm going to move now from this kind of --
いうなれば荘厳で恐ろしい話題から
06:28
the sublime in the traditional sense of the word,
もっと身近なことへと話を進めましょう
06:30
that is to say, awe-inspiring, terrifying -- to the somewhat more mundane.
ブログについて考えるとき
06:32
Because when we think about blogs,
ほとんどの人が
06:37
I think for most of us who are concerned about them,
まず 政治やテクノロジーなどを
思い浮かべるでしょう
06:39
we're primarily concerned with things like politics, technology, etc.
そこで私は残り10分で ブログ界についての
06:42
And I want to ask three questions in this talk,
3つの疑問を挙げたいと思います
06:47
in the 10 minutes that remain, about the blogosphere.
ひとつ目は 人を行動に駆り立てるものについて
06:49
The first one is, What does it tell us about our ideas,
ブログから分かることは何か
06:53
about what motivates people to do things?
二つ目に これまで未開拓だった集団的知性に
06:56
The second is, Do blogs genuinely have the possibility
ブログが本当に到達する可能性はあるのか
06:58
of accessing a kind of collective intelligence
三つ目に
07:02
that has previously remained, for the most part, untapped?
ブログの潜在的な問題
07:06
And then the third part is, What are the potential problems,
ブログの抱える問題点とは何か
という問いです
07:09
or the dark side of blogs as we know them?
では 第一の質問
07:13
OK, the first question:
人々を行動させる理由について
07:17
What do they tell us about why people do things?
ブログから何がわかるか
特にブログ界で
07:19
One of the fascinating things about the blogosphere specifically,
さらに広く言えばインターネットで
魅力的なことは
07:21
and, of course, the Internet more generally --
―あたりまえと思われるかもしれませんが
07:24
and it's going to seem like a very obvious point,
私は重要と考えていることで―
07:27
but I think it is an important one to think about --
ネットサイトの構築や リンクを張り コメントを残し
07:29
is that the people who are generating these enormous reams of content
これほど多量のコンテンツを毎日載せる人たちが
07:31
every day, who are spending enormous amounts of time organizing,
基本的に報酬なしで行っているという点です
07:35
linking, commenting on the substance of the Internet,
良い仕事に対して 注目を集め
07:40
are doing so primarily for free.
高い評価を獲得するということ以外には
07:43
They are not getting paid for it in any way other than in the attention and,
人々は何の報酬も得ていません
07:46
to some extent, the reputational capital that they gain from doing a good job.
これは 少なくとも伝統的な経済学者から見れば
07:50
And this is -- at least, to a traditional economist -- somewhat remarkable,
驚くべきことです
伝統的な見方では 基本的に
07:55
because the traditional account of economic man would say that,
人間は経済的には 明確な報酬
つまりお金のために働くものでした
08:00
basically, you do things for a concrete reward, primarily financial.
しかし インターネットを見ると
08:04
But instead, what we're finding on the Internet --
素晴らしいことに
お金とは関係なく人々が協働する方法が
08:09
and one of the great geniuses of it -- is that people have found a way
見出されたことが
わかります
08:12
to work together without any money involved at all.
活動を組織化するための
新しい方法が創り出されています
08:16
They have come up with, in a sense, a different method for organizing activity.
エール法科大のヨーカイ・ベンクラーは
『ロナルド・コースのペンギン』という論文で
08:19
The Yale Law professor Yochai Benkler, in an essay called "Coase's Penguin,"
リナックスで良く知られた
オープンソースモデルについて
08:24
talks about this open-source model, which we're familiar with from Linux,
あらゆる状況に適用可能だと述べています
08:29
as being potentially applicable in a whole host of situations.
あの津波を思いだしてください
08:33
And, you know, if you think about this with the tsunami,
ジャーナリストが各地に多数いて
08:36
what you have is essentially a kind of an army of local journalists,
自分の話を伝えたいということだけを理由に
08:38
who are producing enormous amounts of material
大量の記事を書きました
08:42
for no reason other than to tell their stories.
その意義は大きく 迫力のある真実です
08:45
That's a very powerful idea, and it's a very powerful reality.
このことは いずれ将来
08:47
And it's one that offers really interesting possibilities
この大量の活動を組織すると
面白い可能性があることを示します
08:51
for organizing a whole host of activities down the road.
つまり ブログ界が示していることは
08:53
So, I think the first thing that the blogosphere tells us
私たちが理性的だとされていた考えを
拡張して
08:59
is that we need to expand our idea of what counts as rational,
「モノの価値=カネ」という方程式を拡張するか
あるいは
09:02
and we need to expand our simple equation of value equals money,
ずっとカネを払い続けるかということです
09:05
or, you have to pay for it to be good,
しかし実際にはカネが動くことなく
09:09
but that in fact you can end up with collectively really brilliant products
集合的に 本当に素晴らしいモノを創り出せるのです
09:11
without any money at all changing hands.
ごく少数 ―20人ほどでしょう―
の人は
09:14
There are a few bloggers -- somewhere maybe around 20, now --
ある意味 お金を稼いでいて
09:17
who do, in fact, make some kind of money, and a few
それで生計を立てようとする者も少しいます
09:20
who are actually trying to make a full-time living out of it,
しかし大部分はただ好きでやっていたり
09:23
but the vast majority of them are doing it because they love it
注目されたいなどの理由からでしょう
09:26
or they love the attention, or whatever it is.
ハワード・ラインゴールドはこの点について
09:28
So, Howard Rheingold has written a lot about this
多く言及していますが
09:30
and, I think, is writing about this more,
自発的な協力というものは
09:32
but this notion of voluntary cooperation
信じ難いほど強力で 考察すべきものだとしています
09:34
is an incredibly powerful one, and one worth thinking about.
二つ目の質問は 集合的知能にアクセスすることに関して
09:37
The second question is, What does the blogosphere actually do for us,
ブログ界は実際にどんな役割を担っているのかです
09:40
in terms of accessing collective intelligence?
クリスに紹介された私の本
『「みんなの意見」は案外正しい』では
09:45
You know, as Chris mentioned, I wrote a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds."
前提として 正しい条件下では
09:48
And the premise of "The Wisdom of Crowds" is that,
グループは目覚ましい知性を発揮しうるとしています
09:51
under the right conditions, groups can be remarkably intelligent.
しばしば グループで一番賢い人よりも
09:54
And they can actually often be smarter
賢くなれるのです
09:58
than even the smartest person within them.
簡単な例では あるグループに
10:00
The simplest example of this is if you ask a group of people
ビンにジェリービーンズがいくつ入っているか
推測させるとしましょう
10:02
to do something like guess how many jellybeans are in a jar.
私がそのビンを持っていて
10:05
If I had a jar of jellybeans
みなさんにいくつ入っているか聞いてみると
10:09
and I asked you all to guess how many jellybeans were in that jar,
その平均値はかなり正解に近くなるのです
10:11
your average guess would be remarkably good.
おそらく正答の3~5%の範囲内でしょう
10:14
It would be somewhere probably within three and five percent
そしてその平均値は
10:17
of the number of beans in the jar,
90から95パーセントの回答より優れているのです
10:19
and it would be better than 90 to 95 percent of you.
ひとりふたりはかなり優れた値を
出してくるかもしれません
10:21
There may be one or two of you who are brilliant jelly bean guessers,
しかし グループで導き出した答えは
10:26
but for the most part the group's guess
あなた方の答えより正答に近くなるでしょう
10:29
would be better than just about all of you.
そして素晴らしいことに もっと複雑な場面でも
10:32
And what's fascinating is that you can see this phenomenon at work
この現象は機能するのです
10:34
in many more complicated situations.
たとえば 競馬でのオッズを見ると
10:37
For instance, if you look at the odds on horses at a racetrack,
ほぼ完璧に勝敗予測が立っている
10:40
they predict almost perfectly how likely a horse is to win.
予想屋のグループが可能性という面で
10:43
In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack
ある意味未来を予測しているのです
10:48
is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.
グーグルなどは
10:51
You know, if you think about something like Google,
本質的にウェブの集合的知能に依拠し
10:55
which essentially is relying on the collective intelligence of the Web
それにより最も有用なサイトを探し出しています
10:57
to seek out those sites that have the most valuable information --
グーグルはありえないほどにうまく行っています
11:01
we know that Google does an exceptionally good job of doing that,
それは集合的に”ワールド-ワイド-ウェブ"という
11:05
and it does that because, collectively, this disorganized thing
無秩序なものに 実は優れた秩序 もしくは
11:08
we call the "World Wide Web" actually has a remarkable order,
優れた知能が含まれているからです
11:11
or a remarkable intelligence in it.
そしてブログ界にはこんな見込みがあると思います
11:15
And this, I think, is one of the real promises of the blogosphere.
ダン・ギルモアは
11:18
Dan Gillmor -- whose book "We the Media"
著書『ブログ 世界を変える個人メディア』の中で
11:21
is included in the gift pack --
こう語っています
11:23
has talked about it as saying that, as a writer,
「自分より読み手のほうが博識である」
11:25
he's recognized that his readers know more than he does.
これはとても挑戦的な考えです
11:28
And this is a very challenging idea. It's a very challenging idea
主流のメディアにとって また
11:32
to mainstream media. It's a very challenging idea to anyone
膨大な時間と専門知識に身を奉げる人や
11:35
who has invested an enormous amount of time and expertise,
自分の専門に
多くのエネルギーを費やしてきた人にとって
11:37
and who has a lot of energy invested in the notion
非常に挑戦的な考えです
11:41
that he or she knows better than everyone else.
しかし ブログ界がもたらすものは
11:44
But what the blogosphere offers is the possibility
集合的で広く行き渡る知能を得る可能性です
11:49
of getting at the kind of collective, distributive intelligence that is out there,
そしてそこにアクセスすることができれば
11:52
and that we know is available to us
私たちの知能はすべての人に利用可能なのです
11:57
if we can just figure out a way of accessing it.
個々のブログやコメントは
11:59
Each blog post, each blog commentary
私たちが求めるものとは少し違うかもしれないが
12:03
may not, in and of itself, be exactly what we're looking for,
それらの総合的な見識は
12:06
but collectively the judgment of those people posting, those people linking,
多くの場合 非常に興味深く
12:10
more often than not is going to give you a very interesting
価値のある内容である
12:15
and enormously valuable picture of what's going on.
これがブログ界の魅力的な点です
12:19
So, that's the positive side of it.
ときにこれは参加型ジャーナリズム
12:22
That's the positive side of what is sometimes called
市民ジャーナリズムなどと呼ばれています
12:24
participatory journalism or citizen journalism, etc. --
そして実際に
12:26
that, in fact, we are giving people
それまで黙っていた人たちが声を上げるようになり
12:31
who have never been able to talk before a voice,
私たちは以前から存在するが使われなかった情報に
12:34
and we're able to access information that has always been there
いつでもアクセスできる状態になります
12:37
but has essentially gone untapped.
しかしこれには問題もあります
12:40
But there is a dark side to this,
残りの時間をかけてお話しましょう
12:43
and that's what I want to spend the last part of my talk on.
インターネットに多くの時間を費やすようになり
12:45
One of the things that happens if you spend a lot of time on the Internet,
ネット上のことで頭がいっぱいになると
12:48
and you spend a lot of time thinking about the Internet,
インターネットそのものに恋に落ちてしまうことがある
12:51
is that it is very easy to fall in love with the Internet.
そのボトムアップで分散型の性質そのものに
12:53
It is very easy to fall in love with the decentralized,
簡単に惚れてしまう
12:57
bottom-up structure of the Internet.
それが必然的に素晴らしいものだと考える
13:00
It is very easy to think that networks are necessarily good things --
次から次へと繋がっていき
13:02
that being linked from one place to another,
グループを形成することが心地よく思えてくる
13:07
that being tightly linked in a group, is a very good thing.
多くの場合でそうであるが
13:09
And much of the time it is.
これこそが ブログ界の問題なのです
13:13
But there's also a downside to this -- a kind of dark side, in fact --
より強く結びついていけばいくほど
13:15
and that is that the more tightly linked we've become to each other,
独立性を保つのが難しくなる
13:19
the harder it is for each of us to remain independent.
ネットワークの基本的な性質のひとつに
13:23
One of the fundamental characteristics of a network is that,
一度繋がりを持つと
13:27
once you are linked in the network,
それがあなたの見解を作り出し
13:30
the network starts to shape your views
他の人との関係を形作ってしまうのです
13:32
and starts to shape your interactions with everybody else.
ネットワークとは
そう定義されたものでもあります
13:35
That's one of the things that defines what a network is.
単なる部分パーツの寄せ集めではなく
13:38
A network is not just the product of its component parts.
それ以上の意味を持ってしまう
13:40
It is something more than that.
スティーブ・ジョンソンはこれを
創発現象と呼んでいます
13:44
It is, as Steven Johnson has talked about, an emergent phenomenon.
こんな風に役立ちます
13:47
Now, this has all these benefits:
情報交換の効率面に貢献して
13:51
it's very beneficial in terms of the efficiency of communicating information;
多数の人と連絡をとることができます
13:53
it gives you access to a whole host of people;
また人々が協力して活動することも助けます
13:56
it allows people to coordinate their activities in very good ways.
問題は グループが賢い決定をするには
13:59
But the problem is that groups are only smart
個々の独立性が
保たれなければならないということです
14:02
when the people in them are as independent as possible.
これは「みんなの意見」や
14:06
This is the paradox of the wisdom of crowds,
集合的知能の逆説になってしまいますが
14:10
or the paradox of collective intelligence,
まさに必要なのは 独立した思考なのです
14:13
that what it requires is actually a form of independent thinking.
ネットワークはそれを難しくさせてしまいます
14:15
And networks make it harder for people to do that,
思考が影響を受けてしまうからです
14:20
because they drive attention to the things that the network values.
ここでブログ界で顕著な現象は
14:24
So, one of the phenomena that's very clear in the blogosphere
一度ミーム
―アイデアが動き始めると
14:28
is that once a meme, once an idea gets going,
とても簡単にそれを集積できるのです
14:32
it is very easy for people to just sort of pile on,
それは他の人からのリンクが理由です
14:36
because other people have, say, a link.
誰かがリンクを張ると
他の人がさらにそこにリンクする
14:39
People have linked to it, and so other people in turn link to it, etc., etc.
そしてこの
14:42
And that phenomenon
積み重なるリンクこそが
14:45
of piling on the existing links
ブログ界の性質なのです
14:48
is one that is characteristic of the blogosphere,
特に政治的なものでは 顕著です
14:51
particularly of the political blogosphere,
正しい状況下でブログが示しうる
14:54
and it is one that essentially throws off
この素晴らしい 分散型でボトムアップの知能を
14:57
this beautiful, decentralized, bottom-up intelligence
必然的に排除してしまうのです
15:00
that blogs can manifest in the right conditions.
私はよくウォーキングミルの例えを使いますが
15:03
The metaphor that I like to use is the metaphor of the circular mill.
多くの人は蟻を例に挙げます
15:06
A lot of people talk about ants.
ボトムアップ式で
15:10
You know, this is a conference inspired by nature.
分散型の現象を考えるとき
15:12
When we talk about bottom-up, decentralized phenomena,
蟻の巣は典型的な例になります
15:14
the ant colony is the classic metaphor, because,
個々の蟻は無意識でも
15:17
no individual ant knows what it's doing,
集団としては賢い選択にたどり着くからです
15:21
but collectively ants are able to reach incredibly intelligent decisions.
食べ物にできるだけ早く到達できるよう
15:23
They're able to guide their traffic with remarkable speed.
素早く交通整理をすることが出来る
15:29
So, the ant colony is a great model:
ゆえに 蟻の巣は良いモデルとなっている
15:36
you have all these little parts that collectively add up to a great thing.
三人寄れば文殊の知恵 ということです
15:38
But we know that occasionally ants go astray,
しかし 道に迷ってしまうこともある
15:41
and what happens is that, if army ants are wandering around and they get lost,
さらには 兵隊蟻が迷ってしまうと 蟻たちは
15:45
they start to follow a simple rule --
基本のルールに従って
15:49
just do what the ant in front of you does.
目の前の蟻をただ真似てしまうのです
15:51
And what happens is that the ants eventually end up in a circle.
すると 蟻たちは徐々に円を描き始める
15:55
And there's this famous example of one that was 1,200 feet long
2日間 360メートル 円の中を
15:59
and lasted for two days, and the ants just kept marching around and around
行進し続けたという例もある
16:03
in a circle until they died.
ただ死ぬまで
16:07
And that, I think, is a sort of thing to watch out for.
そして これこそ私たちが注意し
16:10
That's the thing we have to fear --
気をつけなければならないことなのです
16:13
is that we're just going to keep marching around and around until we die.
蟻のように 死ぬまで行進し続けないように
16:15
Now, I want to connect this back, though, to the tsunami,
これを踏まえて 津波に話を戻すと
16:19
because one of the great things about the tsunami --
津波の話で驚異的な点は
16:22
in terms of the blogosphere's coverage,
津波そのものではなく
16:24
not in terms of the tsunami itself --
ブログ界の影響力に関してですが
16:26
is that it really did represent a genuine bottom-up phenomenon.
ボトムアップの現象を強く描き出しました
16:28
You saw sites that had never existed before getting huge amounts of traffic.
それまで存在しなかったサイトに
アクセスが集中したり
16:32
You saw people being able to offer up
their independent points of view
今まで表すことのなかった独自の考えを
16:35
in a way that they hadn't before.
これまでにない方法で表現できるなど
16:39
There, you really did see the intelligence of the Web manifest itself.
ウェブが示す知能をあなたは確かに目にしたのです
16:41
So, that's the upside. The circular mill is the downside.
これは素晴らしい点です
無限ループは良くない例です
16:46
And I think that the former is what we really need to strive for.
素晴らしいことに我々は注力すべきだと考えます
16:49
Thank you very much. (Applause)
ありがとうございました
16:52
Translated by Junko KUBOTA
Reviewed by Masaki Yanagishita

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About the Speaker:

James Surowiecki - Finance journalist
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker.

Why you should listen

James Surowiecki has been reporting on finance and human behavior since the days of the Motley Fool on AOL. He's had a ringside seat for some roller-coaster times in business, but always, his focus has been on regular people -- not titans of Wall Street, but you and me. In 2004, he published The Wisdom of Crowds, an exploration of the hive mind as it plays out in business and in other arenas of life.

Surowiecki is the finance writer for the New Yorker, and writes a lively and funny (and lately, indispensable) blog for newyorker.com, The Balance Sheet. His other books include the wonderfully titled but sadly quite relevant Best Business Crime Writing of 2003.

More profile about the speaker
James Surowiecki | Speaker | TED.com