sponsored links
TED2002

Kary Mullis: Play! Experiment! Discover!

キャリー・マリス: 遊び!実験!発見!

February 2, 2002

生化学者キャリー・マリスが、現代科学の基礎である「実験」について語ります。 17世紀の実験と、彼自身の裏庭でのロケット製作の日々を物語る中で、マリスは、好奇心、インスピレーション、そして様々な形の正しい科学の厳密さを讃えます。

Kary Mullis - Biochemist
Kary Mullis won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing a way to copy a strand of DNA. (His technique, called PCR, jump-started the 1990s' biorevolution.) He's known for his wide-ranging interests -- and strong opinions. Full bio

sponsored links
Double-click the English subtitles below to play the video.
I'll just start talking about the 17th century.
17世紀の話をしようと思います
00:18
I hope nobody finds that offensive.
不愉快に思う人がいないといいけど
00:20
I -- you know, when I -- after I had invented PCR,
PCR(ポリメラーゼ連鎖反応)法の発明後
00:22
I kind of needed a change.
僕は別のことがしたくなって
00:25
And I moved down to La Jolla and learned how to surf.
ラホヤに引っ越し サーフィンを始めて
00:27
And I started living down there on the beach for a long time.
それから長いことビーチで暮らしました
00:30
And when surfers are out waiting
波待ちのサーファーが
00:33
for waves,
何をしてるか
00:35
you probably wonder, if you've never been out there, what are they doing?
ビーチにいたことがない人は
不思議に思うかも知れません
00:37
You know, sometimes there's a 10-, 15-minute break out there
次の波が来るまで 時には
00:39
when you're waiting for a wave to come in.
10分から15分も待つことがあります
00:41
They usually talk about the 17th century.
たいてい17世紀について語り合っています
00:43
You know, they get a real bad rap in the world.
世間からは見下され
00:46
People think they're sort of lowbrows.
無教養な奴等と思われてるけど
00:49
One day, somebody suggested I read this book.
ある日 誰かが本を薦めてくれました
00:53
It was called --
それは
00:55
it was called "The Air Pump,"
それは 『空気ポンプ』だか
00:57
or something like "The Leviathan and The Air Pump."
『リヴァイアサンと空気ポンプ』とかいう
00:59
It was a real weird book about the 17th century.
17世紀に関するとても奇妙な本で
01:01
And I realized, the roots
それで気付いたんだけど
01:04
of the way I sort of thought
僕の物の考え方は
01:06
was just the only natural way to think about things.
ただひとつの自然な思考方法だったんです
01:08
That -- you know, I was born thinking about things that way,
僕は生まれつきそういう思考回路を持っていて
01:11
and I had always been like a little scientist guy.
子供の頃から科学者だったんです
01:14
And when I went to find out something,
何かを知りたい時には
01:16
I used scientific methods. I wasn't real surprised,
科学的手法を用いていました
01:18
you know, when they first told me how --
科学をどのように行うべきか
01:20
how you were supposed to do science,
最初に学んだ時も 全く驚きませんでした
01:22
because I'd already been doing it for fun and whatever.
すでに遊びとかで使っていたからです
01:24
But it didn't -- it never occurred to me
でも この科学的思考方法が
01:28
that it had to be invented
ほんの350年前に
01:31
and that it had been invented
発明されたものとは
01:33
only 350 years ago.
思いもよりませんでした
01:35
You know, it was --
それは
01:37
like it happened in England, and Germany, and Italy
イギリス、ドイツ、イタリアなど各地で
01:39
sort of all at the same time.
ほぼ同時に起こりました
01:42
And the story of that,
この話は
01:44
I thought, was really fascinating.
とても面白いので
01:46
So I'm going to talk a little bit about that,
この話と
01:48
and what exactly is it that scientists are supposed to do.
あとは 科学者が何をするのかについて
01:50
And it's, it's a kind of --
少し話そうと思います
01:53
You know, Charles I got beheaded
まず チャールズ一世が
01:55
somewhere early in the 17th century.
17世紀初頭あたりで斬首され
01:59
And the English set up Cromwell
英国はクロムウェルやらの
02:01
and a whole bunch of Republicans or whatever,
共和党員に任されます
02:03
and not the kind of Republicans we had.
アメリカの共和党員とは別物で
(笑)
02:05
They changed the government, and it didn't work.
彼らは政体を変えましたが
うまくいきませんでした
02:08
And
そして
02:12
Charles II, the son,
結局 君主制に戻し
02:15
was finally put back on the throne of England.
息子のチャールズ二世に戴冠させます
02:19
He was really nervous, because his dad had been,
彼はとても神経質でした
02:21
you know, beheaded for being the King of England
英国君主であったという理由で
父親が首を切られてますし
02:24
And he was nervous about the fact
彼はパブとかで交わされる
02:26
that conversations that got going
会話の内容にも
02:29
in, like, bars and stuff
神経をとがらせました
02:31
would turn to --
ちょっと
02:33
this is kind of -- it's hard to believe,
信じがたい話ですが
02:35
but people in the 17th century in England
17世紀の英国では
02:37
were starting to talk about, you know,
人々はパブで
02:39
philosophy and stuff in bars.
哲学などを語っていたのです
02:41
They didn't have TV screens,
テレビもなければ
02:43
and they didn't have any football games to watch.
フットボールの試合もありませんでした
02:45
And they would get really pissy,
彼らはとても怒りっぽくなり
02:47
and all of a sudden people would spill out into the street and fight
突然店から道路にあふれ出し
02:49
about issues like whether or not
例えば ロバート・ボイルが真空ポンプという
02:52
it was okay if Robert Boyle
装置を発明したのは良いのか
02:54
made a device called the vacuum pump.
といった問題で喧嘩を始める
02:57
Now, Boyle was a friend of Charles II.
さて ボイルはチャールズ二世の友人で
02:59
He was a Christian guy during the weekends,
週末はキリスト教徒でしたが
03:02
but during the week he was a scientist.
平日は科学者でした
03:05
(Laughter)
(笑)
03:08
Which was -- back then it was
それは当時
03:09
sort of, you know, well, you know --
なんというか
03:11
if you made this thing -- he made this little device,
彼が作ったのは小さい
03:14
like kind of like a bicycle pump
自転車の空気入れとは逆に
03:16
in reverse that could suck all the air out of --
空気を吸い出す装置なんですが
03:19
you know what a bell jar is? One of these things,
ベル・ジャーをご存知ですか?
03:22
you pick it up, put it down, and it's got a seal,
釣鐘型のガラス製で 置くと密閉され
03:24
and you can see inside of it,
中を見ることができるもので
03:26
so you can see what's going on inside this thing.
内部で起こることが観察できます
03:28
But what he was trying to do was to pump all the air out of there,
彼はその中から空気をすべて吸い出して
03:30
and see what would happen inside there.
内部で起こることを観察しようとしました
03:33
I mean, the first -- I think one of the first experiments he did
確か 彼の初期の実験では
03:35
was he put a bird in there.
鳥を入れました
03:39
And people in the 17th century,
17世紀の人々は
03:41
they didn't really understand the same way we do
空気が様々な分子から構成されているとか
03:44
about you know, this stuff is
ヒトが空気を呼吸する理由だとか
03:47
a bunch of different kinds of molecules,
現代人のようには
03:49
and we breathe it in for a purpose and all that.
理解していませんでした
03:52
I mean, fish don't know much about water,
魚は水のことをあまり意識せず
03:55
and people didn't know much about air.
人間は空気についてあまり意識しません
03:57
But both started exploring it.
しかしどちらもその中で暮らしています
04:00
One thing, he put a bird in there, and he pumped all the air out,
まずは 鳥を入れ 空気を抜くと
04:02
and the bird died. So he said, hmm ...
鳥が死にました 彼は「ふむ」 と言い
04:04
He said -- he called what he'd done as making --
自分のしたことを
「真空を作った」と表現しました
04:06
they didn't call it a vacuum pump at the time.
今は真空ポンプですが
04:09
Now you call it a vacuum pump; he called it a vacuum.
当時はそう呼ばれませんでした
04:11
Right? And immediately,
そしてすぐに
04:14
he got into trouble with the local clergy
真空を作ることはできないと言う
04:17
who said, you can't make a vacuum.
地元の聖職者とトラブルになりました
04:19
Ah, uh --
やれやれ
04:22
(Laughter)
(笑)
04:24
Aristotle said that nature abhors one.
アリストテレス曰く「自然は真空を嫌う」
04:27
I think it was a poor translation, probably,
これは多分翻訳ミスと思いますが
04:29
but people relied on authorities like that.
人々はこのような権威を信じていたのです
04:31
And you know, Boyle says, well, shit.
ボイルにしてみれば
そんなの知ったことか
04:34
I make them all the time.
私は何度も真空を作ったぞ てなもんです
04:37
I mean, whatever that is that kills the bird --
なんだか知らないけれど あの鳥を殺すもの
04:39
and I'm calling it a vacuum.
私はそれを真空と呼ぶぞ と
04:42
And the religious people said that
そして信心深い人々は
04:44
if God wanted you to make --
もし神の思し召しならば
04:47
I mean, God is everywhere,
神は遍在すると言うのは
04:50
that was one of their rules, is God is everywhere.
教義のひとつですが
04:52
And a vacuum -- there's nothing in a vacuum,
真空には何も存在しません
04:54
so you've -- God couldn't be in there.
だから神もその中には存在し得ない
04:56
So therefore the church said that you can't make a vacuum, you know.
教会はこうした理由で
真空は作れないと言ったのです
04:59
And Boyle said, bullshit.
ボイルに言わせれば
知ったことか です
05:02
I mean, you want to call it Godless,
不敬(Godless)とでも何とでも
05:04
you know, you call it Godless.
呼びたいように呼べばいい
05:06
But that's not my job. I'm not into that.
私には関係ないし興味もない
05:08
I do that on the weekend. And like --
宗教関係は週末だけ
05:10
what I'm trying to do is figure out what happens
私は容器からすべてを吸い出したら
05:13
when you suck everything out of a compartment.
どうなるのか知りたいのだ
といった感じでしょう
05:16
And he did all these cute little experiments.
そして彼は様々な小実験を行いました
05:19
Like he did one with -- he had a little wheel,
例えばくるくる回るように
05:21
like a fan, that was
ゆるく取り付けられた輪
05:24
sort of loosely attached, so it could spin by itself.
小さな扇風機の羽根のような
05:27
He had another fan opposed to it
その向かいにもうひとつ同じものを
05:30
that he had like a --
取り付けて
05:32
I mean, the way I would have done this would be, like, a rubber band,
私だったらゴムひもと
05:34
and, you know, around a tinker toy kind of fan.
ブリキのおもちゃみたいな羽根車を使うかな
05:36
I know exactly how he did it; I've seen the drawings.
設計図を見たことがあるので
彼がどうやったかは正確に分かります
05:38
It's two fans, one which he could turn from outside
二つの風車のうち1つは真空にした後も
05:42
after he got the vacuum established,
外から回すことができます
05:44
and he discovered that if he pulled all the air out of it,
そして彼は
全ての空気を吸い出して真空にした後は
05:46
the one fan would no longer turn the other one, right?
片方の風車を回しても
対面の風車が回らなくなることを発見したのです
05:49
Something was missing, you know. I mean, these are --
何かがなくなったのです
05:52
it's kind of weird to think that someone had to do an experiment to show that,
こんなことをわざわざ実験で
証明して見せる必要があったとは
05:55
but that was what was going on at the time.
奇妙なことですが 当時はこんな感じだったのです
05:57
And like, there was big arguments about it
パブやカフェなどで
06:02
in the -- you know, the gin houses and in the coffee shops and stuff.
それに関する大論争もあったわけです
06:04
And Charles
チャールズは
06:08
started not liking that.
そのことを恐れ始めました
06:10
Charles II was kind of saying, you know, you should keep that --
チャールズ二世の提案で
06:12
let's make a place where you can do this stuff
そういうことをやっても
06:15
where people don't get so -- you know,
王に対する怒りを
06:18
we don't want the -- we don't want to get the people mad at me again. And so --
人々が再燃させることのないような場所を作って
06:20
because when they started talking about religion
そこでだけで行ったらどうだろうかと
06:23
and science and stuff like that,
彼の父親が困った事態に陥ったのも
06:26
that's when it had sort of gotten his father in trouble.
宗教とか科学とかを
世間が話し始めたせいでしたから
06:28
And so,
それで
06:30
Charles said, I'm going to put up the money
チャールズは 「君らにお金を出して
06:32
give you guys a building,
建物を用意してあげる
06:34
come here and you can meet in the building,
その建物の中で会合をすればいい
06:36
but just don't talk about religion in there.
でもそこでは宗教の話はいけません」と
06:38
And that was fine with Boyle.
ボイルには異議も無く
06:40
He said, OK, we're going to start having these meetings.
彼は承諾すると会合を始めました
06:42
And anybody who wants to do science is --
科学を志す人は誰でも
06:44
this is about the time that Isaac Newton was starting to whip out
この時代はアイザック·ニュートンが
06:47
a lot of really interesting things.
とても興味深いことを始めていた頃です
06:49
And there was all kind of people that would come to the Royal Society,
王立協会と名付けた会には色々な人が集いました
06:51
they called it. You had to be dressed up pretty well.
正装して来る必要はありましたが
06:54
It wasn't like a TED conference.
TEDカンファレンスとは違って
06:57
That was the only criteria, was that you be --
紳士的に装っていれば
06:59
you looked like a gentleman, and they'd let anybody could come.
誰でも参加できました
07:01
You didn't have to be a member then.
会員制ではなかったのです
07:04
And so, they would come in and you would do --
というわけで
07:06
Anybody that was going to show an experiment,
人々は集まり「実験」を
07:08
which was kind of a new word at the time,
当時は新しい言葉でした
07:11
demonstrate some principle,
何かの原理を実演するものですが
07:13
they had to do it on stage, where everybody could see it.
それを皆が見ることのできる
舞台の上で行いました
07:15
So they were --
そして
07:18
the really important part of this was,
最も重要な決まりとして
07:20
you were not supposed to talk
例えば究極の原因については
07:22
about final causes, for instance.
話さないことになっていました
07:24
And God was out of the picture.
神はここでは議論されません
07:27
The actual nature of reality was not at issue.
現実とは何たるかなどは問題とせず
07:29
You're not supposed to talk about the absolute nature of anything.
絶対的な性質などについて語るべきではなく
07:33
You were not supposed to talk about anything
実験で証明できない類のことを
07:36
that you couldn't demonstrate.
語ることは許されていませんでした
07:38
So if somebody could see it, you could say, here's how the machine works,
人が観察することが可能であれば
07:40
here's what we do, and then here's what happens.
装置がこのように機能し
このように操作すると
07:43
And seeing what happens, it was OK
こうなりますと説明できます
07:47
to generalize,
そして例えば
07:49
and say, I'm sure that this will happen anytime
「これを作ったら
いつでもこの現象が起こるに違いない」といった
07:51
we make one of these things.
実験の観察に基づいた
一般化した意見を述べることは許されていました
07:54
And so you can start making up some rules.
そこで法則も作られ始めました
07:56
You say, anytime you have a vacuum state,
例えば 向かい合う風車が
07:58
you will discover that one wheel will not turn another one,
真空ポンプで吸い出すことのできる
08:01
if the only connection between them
何物かだけでしか繋がっていない場合
08:04
is whatever was there before the vacuum. That kind of thing.
真空の状態にすると
もう一方の風車を回すことはできなくなる
08:06
Candles can't burn in a vacuum,
真空ではロウソクは燃焼しない
08:09
therefore, probably sparklers wouldn't either.
なのでおそらく線香花火も同じでしょう とか
08:11
It's not clear; actually sparklers will,
正確なところは不明ですが
実際は線香花火は燃えます
08:14
but they didn't know that.
でも彼らは知りませんでした
08:16
They didn't have sparklers. But, they --
線香花火がなかったのですから
08:18
(Laughter)
(笑)
08:20
-- you can make up rules, but they have to relate
法則は作れます しかしあくまで
08:25
only to the things that you've been able to demonstrate.
実験で証明可能なものに限られます
08:28
And most the demonstrations had to do with visuals.
そしてほとんどの実験は
視覚的でなくてはなりません
08:30
Like if you do an experiment on stage,
舞台上で実験するのに
08:33
and nobody can see it, they can just hear it, they would probably think you were freaky.
何も見えず聞こえるだけでは
変なヤツと思われてしまうでしょう
08:35
I mean, reality is what you can see.
現実とは目に見えるものなのです
08:38
That wasn't an explicit rule in the meeting,
会ではっきり決められた規則ではありませんが
08:41
but I'm sure that was part of it, you know. If people hear voices,
当然その一部っだったはずです
声が聞こえたとしても
08:45
and they can't see and associate it with somebody,
その声の主が見当たらなければ
08:47
that person's probably not there.
その人は多分そこには存在しない
08:50
But the general idea that you could only --
一般的には
08:52
you could only really talk about things in that place
そこで話してよいのは
08:56
that had some kind of experimental basis.
何らかの実験の裏づけがあるものだけでした
08:58
It didn't matter what Thomas Hobbes,
地元の哲学者である
09:01
who was a local philosopher,
トマス·ホッブズが
09:03
said about it, you know,
何を言おうと関係ないのです
09:05
because you weren't going to be talking final causes.
究極の原因については議論しないのですから
09:07
What's happening here,
17世紀の半ばに
09:09
in the middle of the 17th century,
何が起きていたのかと言えば
09:11
was that what became my field --
科学 とくに実験科学が
09:13
science, experimental science --
物質的なものとして
別室で扱うべきものとして
09:15
was pulling itself away,
切り離されたのです
09:17
and it was in a physical way, because we're going to do it in this room over here,
それが後に 私の分野となったわけです
09:19
but it was also what -- it was an amazing thing that happened.
驚くべき変化が生じました
09:22
Science had been all interlocked
それまで科学は
09:24
with theology, and philosophy,
神学、哲学
09:26
and -- and -- and mathematics,
数学
―実際 科学とは別物です―と
09:28
which is really not science.
深く関連付けられていました
09:31
But experimental science had been tied up with all those things.
実験科学はこれらと結びつけられていました
09:34
And the mathematics part
そして 数学の部分と
09:37
and the experimental science part
実験科学の部分は
09:40
was pulling away from philosophy.
哲学から徐々に分離してゆき
09:42
And -- things --
そして
09:44
we never looked back.
なんの未練もありませんでした
09:46
It's been so cool since then.
以来絶好調です
09:48
I mean, it just -- it just -- untangled a thing that was really impeding
技術発展を阻んでいたしがらみが
09:51
technology from being developed.
解きほぐされていく
09:56
And, I mean, everybody in this room --
この部屋にいる皆さん
09:58
now, this is 350 short years ago.
これはたった350年前のことです
10:00
Remember, that's a short time.
本当に短い時間です
10:02
It was 300,000, probably, years ago
この部屋にいる我々のほとんどの祖先が
10:04
that most of us, the ancestors of most of us in this room
アフリカから出て左に向かったのは
10:07
came up out of Africa and turned to the left.
だいたい30万年前でした
10:10
You know, the ones that turned to the right, there are some of those
右に行った人々には
10:13
in the Japanese translation.
日本語の翻訳が必要です
10:15
But that happened very -- a long time ago
しかしそれは
10:17
compared to
350年に比べたら
10:20
350 short years ago.
とても前に起こったことです
10:22
But in that 350 years,
なのにこの350年で
10:24
the place has just undergone a lot of changes.
実験室は大きな進化を遂げました
10:26
In fact, everybody in this room probably,
実際 この部屋に居る皆さん
10:29
especially if you picked up your bag --
特にカバンを手にすれば
10:31
some of you, I know, didn't pick up your bags --
自分のカバンを持ってない人もいますけれど
10:34
but if you picked up your bag, everybody in this room
カバンの中身
10:36
has got in their pocket, or back in their room,
ポケットの中、自宅の居室
10:38
something
何かあるはずです
10:40
that 350 years ago,
350年前の国王が
10:42
kings would have gone to war to have.
戦争をしてでも手に入れたがった何かが
10:44
I mean, if you can think how important --
どれだけ重要なものか考えてみれば
10:47
If you have a GPS system and there are no satellites,
まあGPSがあっても衛星がなければ
10:49
it's not going to be much use. But, like --
あまり役にに立たないけど
10:51
but, you know, if somebody had a GPS system
それでもGPSシステムが
10:53
in the 17th century
17世紀にあったら
10:55
some king would have gotten together an army
手に入れようと挙兵する国王もいたはずです
10:58
and gone to get it, you know. If that person --
もしその人が
11:00
Audience: For the teddy bear? The teddy bear?
観客:テディベアはどうですか?
11:02
Kary Mullis: They might have done it for the teddy bear, yeah.
マリス:それもアリかもね
11:04
But -- all of us own stuff.
みんなが所有しています
11:07
I mean, individuals own things
一国の王が入手のためには
戦争もしたはずの物を
11:09
that kings would have definitely gone to war to get.
個人が所有している
11:11
And this is just 350 years.
たった350年の間に
11:13
Not a whole lot of people doing this stuff.
みんなが皆貢献したわけじゃない
11:15
You know, the important people --
偉人
11:17
you can almost read about their lives,
伝記で読むことができるような
11:19
about all the really important people that made advances, you know.
進歩をもたらした巨人たち
11:21
And, I mean --
これらは
11:24
this kind of stuff, you know, all this stuff
全て我々科学者の行為の一部を
11:26
came from that separation
分離することから
11:29
of this little sort of thing that we do --
もたらされました
11:31
now I, when I was a boy
少年の頃
11:34
was born sort of with this idea
僕はこう考えていました
11:36
that if you want to know something --
もし何か知りたいことがあったら
11:38
you know, maybe it's because my old man was gone a lot,
まあそれは父がよく家を空けていて
11:40
and my mother didn't really know much science,
母は科学知識があまりなかったけれど
11:42
but I thought if you want to know something about stuff,
もし何か知りたいことがあれば
11:44
you do it -- you make an experiment, you know.
自分で試して実験してみなきゃって
11:47
You get -- you get, like --
多分
11:49
I just had a natural feeling for science
生まれつき自然に
科学的な思考や実験の考えがあったのです
11:51
and setting up experiments. I thought that was the way everybody had always thought.
他の皆も同じだと ずっと思ってました
11:54
I thought that anybody with any brains will do it that way.
脳みそがちょっとでもあるやつなら
誰だってそうすると思ってた
11:56
It isn't true. I mean, there's a lot of people --
けど違いました
多くの人は違います
11:59
You know, I was one of those scientists that was --
僕はポストモダニズムの件で
12:02
got into trouble the other night at dinner
この間の晩餐会でトラブルに巻き込まれた
12:05
because of the post-modernism thing.
科学者の一人なんですが
12:07
And I didn't mean, you know -- where is that lady?
私は別に
あの女性はいらっしゃいますか?
12:09
Audience: Here.
観客:ここですよ
12:11
(Laughter)
(笑)
12:12
KM: I mean, I didn't really think of that as an argument
というか別にあれは論争とは思ってなくて
12:13
so much as just a lively discussion.
ただの活発な意見交換でした
12:15
I didn't take it personally, but --
個人攻撃とは捉えてませんから
12:18
I just -- I had -- I naively had thought,
ただバカ正直に
12:21
until this surfing experience started me into the 17th century,
サーフィンの待ち時間で
17世紀に親しむまでは
12:24
I'd thought that's just the way people thought,
誰もがそのように考えて行動するものだと
12:27
and everybody did, and they recognized reality
現実を認識するのに用いるのは
12:29
by what they could see or touch or feel or hear.
見え、聞こえ、触れ
感じることできるものなのだと考えていたんです
12:32
At any rate, when I was a boy,
まあそれはさておき 僕が少年の頃
12:35
I, like, for instance, I had this --
例えば僕は
12:40
I got this little book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma --
オクラホマのフォート・シルから
ある小さな本を取り寄せました
12:42
This is about the time that George Dyson's dad
ジョージ・ダイソンの親父さんが
12:44
was starting to blow nuclear --
原子力 ―
12:46
thinking about blowing up nuclear rockets and stuff.
原子力ロケットをぶっ放すことを考えたりし始めた頃で
12:48
I was thinking about making my own little rockets.
僕は自家製の
小さなロケットを作ることを考えていました
12:51
And I knew that frogs -- little frogs --
そしてあのカエル ちびガエルが
12:54
had aspirations of space travel,
宇宙旅行を夢見てることを知ってたんです
12:57
just like people. And I --
まるで人間みたいに
12:59
(Laughter)
(笑)
13:01
I was looking for a --
僕はロケットの
13:04
a propulsion system
推進システムを探してました
13:06
that would like, make a rocket, like,
1メートル20センチぐらいのロケットで
13:08
maybe about four feet high go up a couple of miles.
何キロか上空に打ちあがる
13:10
And, I mean, that was my sort of goal.
それが個人的な目標でした
13:12
I wanted it to go out of sight and then I wanted this little parachute
見えなくなるまで上空に打ち上がったあと
カエルの入ったちっちゃいパラシュートが
13:15
to come back with the frog in it.
戻って来ることを夢見てた
13:18
And -- I -- I --
そして
13:21
I got this book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma,
その本をミサイル基地のある
13:23
where there's a missile base.
オクラホマのフォート・シルから取り寄せました
13:25
They send it out for amateur rocketeers,
彼らは素人ロケット愛好家に本を発送していました
13:27
and
そして
13:30
it said in there
そこに
13:32
do not ever heat a mixture of potassium perchlorate and sugar.
過塩素酸カリウムと砂糖の混合物は
絶対に加熱するべからず とあって
13:34
(Laughter)
(笑)
13:37
You know,
これが
13:40
that's what you call a lead.
手がかりってやつだよね
13:42
(Laughter)
(笑)
13:44
You sort of -- now you say, well, let's see if I can
で さて過塩素酸カリウムと砂糖を入手して
13:46
get hold of some potassium chlorate and sugar, perchlorate and sugar,
加熱してみることは可能かなと
13:48
and heat it; it would be interesting to see what it is they don't want me to do,
いったいなんで禁止されているのか
どんなことが起こるのか
13:51
and what it is going to --
and how is it going to work.
どんな作用か 観察するのは面白そうだと
13:54
And we didn't have --
それで
13:56
like, my mother
母はいつも
13:58
presided over the back yard
アイロンとかをしながら
14:00
from an upstairs window,
二階の窓から
14:03
where she would be ironing or something like that.
裏庭を監視していました
14:05
And she was usually just sort of keeping an eye on,
大体はただ見守っているだけで
14:07
and if there was any puffs of smoke out there,
ただ 煙なんかが見えたりすると
14:09
she'd lean out and admonish us all
窓から身を乗り出して
14:11
not to blow our eyes out. That was her --
目をつぶさないようにと注意していました
14:13
You know, that was kind of the worst thing that could happen to us.
それが母の考える最悪の事態でした
14:18
That's why I thought, as long as I don't blow my eyes out ...
なので僕は目さえつぶさなければ
14:20
I may not care about the fact
この混合物を加熱することが
14:22
that it's prohibited from heating this solution.
禁じられているかどうかは気になりませんでした
14:25
I'm going to do it carefully, but I'll do it.
用心してやればいいだけだと
14:27
It's like anything else that's prohibited:
禁止されていた他のことと同じで
14:29
you do it behind the garage.
ガレージの裏で試そう
14:31
(Laughter)
(笑)
14:33
So, I went to the drug store
それでドラッグストアに行って
14:35
and I tried to buy some potassium perchlorate
過塩素酸カリウムを買おうとしました
14:37
and it wasn't unreasonable then for a kid
当時 ドラッグストアで子供が
14:40
to walk into a drug store and buy chemicals.
化学薬品を買うのはおかしなことじゃなかったのです
14:42
Nowadays, it's no ma'am,
今じゃあ 失礼ですが
14:45
check your shoes. And like --
靴を調べさせて頂きます
ってなもんです
14:47
(Laughter)
(笑)
14:49
But then it wasn't -- they didn't have any, but the guy had --
でもその店にはなかったんだ
14:51
I said, what kind of salts of potassium do you have? You know.
それでどんなカリウム塩があるか聞いたら
14:53
And he had potassium nitrate.
硝酸カリウムがありました
14:56
And I said, that might do the same thing, whatever it is.
たぶん同じようなもんだろうと思いました
14:58
I'm sure it's got to do with rockets or it wouldn't be in that manual.
ロケットに関係があると確信していた
マニュアルに載ってるんだから
15:01
And so I -- I did some experiments.
それでいくつかの実験をしました
15:04
You know, I started off with little tiny amounts
ほんの少量の硝酸カリウムと
15:06
of potassium nitrate and sugar,
砂糖から始め
15:08
which was readily available,
砂糖はいくらでもあったから
15:10
and I mixed it in different proportions,
様々な割合で混合し
15:12
and I tried to light it on fire.
まずは燃やそうと試みました
15:14
Just to see what would happen, if you mixed it together.
混合することで何が起こるか観察するために
15:17
And it -- they burned.
それは燃えました
15:19
It burned kind of slow, but it made a nice smell,
どちらかというとゆっくり燃えましたが
15:21
compared to other rocket fuels I had tried,
他に試したどのロケット燃料よりいい匂いがしました
15:23
that all had sulfur in them.
他の燃料には全て硫黄が入っていたので
15:25
And, it smelt like burnt candy.
それは焦げたキャンディーの匂いがしました
15:27
And then I tried the melting business, and I melted it.
次に溶かすことを試しました
15:30
And then it melted into a little sort of syrupy liquid, brown.
それは溶けてシロップのような茶色の液体になり
15:33
And then it cooled down to a brick-hard substance,
冷めると石のように硬くなりました
15:37
that when you lit that,
それに火をつけると
15:40
it went off like a bat.
いきなり猛スピードで
15:42
I mean, the little bowl of that stuff that had cooled down --
小さな器の中で冷えた物質が
15:44
you'd light it, and it would just start dancing around the yard.
それに火をつけると 庭を跳ね回ったんです
15:46
And I said, there
それで カエルの望み通り
15:48
is a way to get a frog up to where he wants to go.
上空へ行かせてやる方法をみつけたと
15:50
(Laughter)
(笑)
15:53
So I started developing --
それで製作を始めました
15:54
you know, George's dad had a lot of help. I just had my brother.
ジョージの親父さんには
沢山の協力者がいたけど 僕には弟だけ
15:57
But I -- it took me about -- it took me about,
それでだいたい
16:00
I'd say, six months
いろいろと細部まで
16:03
to finally figure out all the little things.
完成させるには6ヶ月かかったかな
16:05
There's a lot of little things involved
ちゃんと飛ぶロケットを作るには
16:07
in making a rocket that it will actually work,
沢山の細かいことが必要なんです
16:09
even after you have the fuel.
燃料を確保した後もね
16:11
But you do it, by -- what I just--
でもやるしかない
16:13
you know, you do experiments,
実験するんだ
16:15
and you write down things sometimes,
時にはメモし
16:17
you make observations, you know.
観察するんだ
16:18
And then you slowly build up a theory
そうして徐々に
16:20
of how this stuff works.
法則を見だしていく
16:22
And it was -- I was following all the rules.
物事は様々な法則に従って機能している
16:24
I didn't know what the rules were,
その法則を見つけ出すんだ
16:26
I'm a natural born scientist, I guess,
僕は生まれつきの科学者だと思う
16:28
or some kind of a throwback to the 17th century, whatever.
17世紀への先祖返り
16:30
But at any rate, we finally did
なんにせよ とうとう僕らは
16:33
have a device that would reproduceably
カエルを彼方まで飛ばして
16:37
put a frog out of sight
生きて戻ってこさせる装置を
16:39
and get him back alive.
作り上げました
16:41
And we had not --
そして僕らは
16:43
I mean, we weren't frightened by it.
その装置を恐れていませんでした
16:45
We should have been, because it made a lot of smoke
ものすごい煙を出し
16:48
and it made a lot of noise,
轟音を立て
16:50
and it was powerful, you know.
すさまじい威力があり
16:52
And once in a while, they would blow up.
そしてたまに爆発したっていうのに
16:54
But I wasn't worried, by the way,
ところで僕は
16:56
about, you know,
その爆発が
16:58
the explosion causing the destruction of the planet.
地球環境を壊すとかの心配はしていませんでした
17:00
I hadn't heard about the 10 ways
『心配すべき10項目』について
17:02
that we should be afraid of the --
その当時は知らなかったからね
17:04
By the way,
冗談はさておき
17:06
I could have thought,
禁止されてるんだから
17:08
I'd better not do this because
やめといた方がいい
17:10
they say not to, you know.
そう思っていても仕方ありませんでした
17:12
And I'd better get permission
from the government.
それで政府の認可を待って
17:14
If I'd have waited around for that,
でもそんなのを待っていたら
17:16
I would have never -- the frog would have died, you know.
カエルは死んじゃってただろうし
17:18
At any rate, I bring it up because it's a good story,
とにかく 今日この話をしたのは
いい話だからです
17:22
and he said, tell personal things, you know, and that's a personal --
何か個人的な話をするように言われてもいましたしね
17:25
I was going to tell you about the first night that I met my wife,
妻に初めて会った晩のことを話そうかとも思ったけど
17:27
but that would be too personal, wouldn't it.
それじゃ個人的過ぎるでしょ
17:30
So, so I've got something else that's not personal.
あと他に個人的じゃない話題もあるんです
17:33
But that ... process is what I think of as science,
ただ プロセスこそが科学だと思うんです
17:35
see, where you start with some idea,
アイディアから出発して
17:38
and then instead of, like, looking up,
権威とかの
17:41
every authority that you've ever heard of
そういった意見を伺うんじゃなくて
17:44
I -- sometimes you do that,
時にはそれも必要ですよ
17:46
if you're going to write a paper later,
後で論文を書くときなどは
17:48
you want to figure out who else has worked on it.
同じ研究をした人を調べる必要があります
17:50
But in the actual process, you get an idea --
しかし実際の手順は まず着想を得て
17:52
like, when I got the idea one night
例えば僕がある晩
17:54
that I could amplify DNA with two oligonucleotides,
2つのオリゴヌクレオチドでDNAを増幅させて
17:56
and I could make lots of copies of some little piece of DNA,
DNA断片の大量コピーを作る方法を
思いついたみたいに
17:59
you know, the thinking for that
それは自動車を運転している
18:02
was about 20 minutes while I was driving my car,
20分ぐらいの間に考えたことでした
18:04
and then instead of going -- I went back and I did talk to people about it,
それで帰ってから僕はいろんな人に相談しました
18:08
but if I'd listened to what I heard from all my friends who were molecular biologists --
分子生物学者の友人の言うことを聞いていたら
18:11
I would have abandoned it.
そのアイデアは捨てていたでしょう
18:16
You know, if I had gone back looking for an authority figure
このアイデアが上手く行くかどうか
18:18
who could tell me if it would work or not,
判断してくれそうな権威者を探していたら
18:20
he would have said, no, it probably won't.
上手く行かないと判断されていたでしょう
18:22
Because the results of it were so spectacular
なぜならその結果はあまりに画期的で
18:24
that if it worked it was going to change everybody's goddamn way of doing molecular biology.
それが上手く行けば
分子生物学の手法を一変させることになるんですから
18:28
Nobody wants a chemist to come in
誰だって化学屋にテリトリーを
18:31
and poke around in their stuff like that and change things.
引っ掻き回されたくなんてないんです
18:33
But if you go to authority, and you always don't --
でも権威に頼ってしまえば
常に ―いや必ずしも
18:36
you don't always get the right answer, see.
正しい答えが得られるとは限りません
18:38
But I knew, you'd go into the lab
でも僕にはわかっていました
18:40
and you'd try to make it work yourself. And then you're the authority,
研究室に行って自分で試せばいい
そうしたら君自身が権威だ
18:42
and you can say, I know it works,
上手く行くよ と自分で言える
18:44
because right there in that tube
なぜならそれは目の前の
18:46
is where it happened,
試験管の中で起こったんですから
18:48
and here, on this gel, there's a little band there
そしてこのゲルの中の小さなバンドは
18:50
that I know that's DNA, and that's the DNA I wanted to amplify,
DNAだと判っている
僕が増幅したかったDNAです
18:52
so there!
So it does work.
見てくれ ちゃんと成功してるだろ
18:55
You know, that's how you do science.
科学ってのはそういう風にするのです
18:57
And then you say, well, what can make it work better?
それから どう改良しようかってなる
18:59
And then you figure out better and better ways to do it.
そしてどんどん改良を重ねる
19:01
But you always work from, from like, facts
ただし必ず自身の実験によって
19:03
that you have made available to you
証明された事実に基づいていること
19:05
by doing experiments: things that you could do on a stage.
舞台の上で実証できるもの
19:08
And no tricky shit behind the thing. I mean, it's all --
隠れた仕掛けなどががないこと
19:10
you've got to be very honest
本当に成功させたいのなら
19:13
with what you're doing if it really is going to work.
自分の行為に正直でないといけない
19:15
I mean, you can't make up results,
結果をでっち上げてはいけない
19:17
and then do another experiment based on that one.
でっち上げた結果を基に
次の実験を行ってもいけません
19:19
So you have to be honest.
正直でなきゃいけません
19:21
And I'm basically honest.
僕は基本的に正直だ
19:23
I have a fairly bad memory, and dishonesty would always get me in trouble,
僕は記憶力が悪くて
嘘をつくと必ずトラブルになる
19:25
if I, like -- so I've just sort of been naturally honest
だから自然と正直者で
19:28
and naturally inquisitive,
生まれつき探究心が旺盛で
19:30
and that sort of leads to that kind of science.
そういった性格が
ああいった科学に結びつきました
19:33
Now, let's see ...
さてと
19:35
I've got another five minutes, right?
あと5分あるよね?
19:37
OK. All scientists aren't like that.
よし
そうじゃない科学者もいるんです
19:40
You know -- and there is a lot --
たくさん
19:44
(Laughter)
(笑)
19:46
There is a lot -- a lot has been going on since
アイザック・ニュートン以降
19:48
Isaac Newton and all that stuff happened.
多くのことがありました
19:50
One of the things that happened right around World War II
そのひとつは
19:53
in that same time period before,
ちょうど第2次世界大戦の頃
19:55
and as sure as hell afterwards,
その前後に起きました
19:57
government got -- realized that scientists aren't strange dudes
政府は 科学者ってのは 象牙の塔に閉じこもって
19:59
that, you know, hide in ivory towers
試験管でばかげたことをしている
20:02
and do ridiculous things with test tube.
変わり者なんかじゃないって
気付きました
20:05
Scientists, you know, made World War II
科学者こそが第2次世界大戦を
20:08
as we know it quite possible.
可能にしたのだと
20:10
They made faster things.
彼らが高速化を実現し
20:12
They made bigger guns to shoot them down with.
彼らがより大きな銃を作った
20:15
You know, they made drugs to give the pilots
精神が壊れたパイロットに
20:18
if they were broken up in the process.
投与する薬も開発した
20:21
They made all kinds of -- and then finally one giant bomb
ついには巨大な爆弾を作って
20:24
to end the whole thing, right?
決着までつけた でしょ?
20:27
And everybody stepped back a little and said, you know,
人々は一歩下がってこう言いました
20:29
we ought to invest in this shit,
こいつに投資しなくちゃ
20:31
because whoever has got the most of these people
なぜって より多くの科学者を囲った者が
20:33
working in the places is going to have a dominant position,
優位に立てるのだから
20:36
at least in the military, and probably in all kind of economic ways.
少なくとも軍事と 様々な経済分野で
20:39
And they got involved in it, and the scientific
そうして彼らは取り込まれていった
20:42
and industrial establishment was born,
科学産業が生まれ
20:44
and out of that came a lot of scientists
急に現れたその獲物を目当てに
20:46
who were in there for the money, you know,
金儲けを目論む―
20:48
because it was suddenly available.
多くの科学者が生まれた
20:51
And they weren't the curious little boys
彼らはカエルを空に飛ばすのが好きな
20:53
that liked to put frogs up in the air.
好奇心旺盛な少年達ではありませんでした
20:55
They were the same people that later went in to medical school, you know,
後の時代にはお金が儲かるからと
20:57
because there was money in it, you know. I mean, later, then they all got into business --
医学部に進んだのと同じ種類の人々
そしてもう少し後の時代にはみんなビジネスに
21:00
I mean, there are waves of -- going into your high school,
高校では お金持ちになりたかったら
21:03
person saying, you want to be rich, you know, be a scientist. You know, not anymore.
科学者になれって言っていました
今は違う
21:06
You want to be rich, you be a businessman.
金持ちになりたければビジネスマンです
21:09
But a lot of people got in it for the money and the power and the travel.
しかし多くの人が金と権力と旅行目当てに
科学者になりました
21:11
That's back when travel was easy.
旅行が簡単だった時のことです
21:14
And those people don't think --
そしてこういう人達が考えるのは
21:18
they don't --
彼らは
21:20
they don't always tell you the truth, you know.
いつでも真実を語るわけじゃありません
21:22
There is nothing in their contract, in fact,
常に真実を語ることが
21:24
that makes it to their advantage always,
彼らの契約にとって
21:26
to tell you the truth.
不利になることもあるのです
21:28
And the people I'm talking about are people that like --
今話題にしている人々と言うのは
21:30
they say that they're a member of the committee
気候変動に関する政府間パネルなどの
21:33
called, say, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
委員会のメンバーとかだったりする人々です
21:36
And they -- and they have these big meetings where they try to figure out
そして彼らが開催するいくつもの大きな会合では
21:40
how we're going to -- how we're going to continually prove
多数の人々の感覚に反して
21:44
that the planet is getting warmer,
地球が温暖化していると証明し続ける方法を
21:46
when that's actually contrary to most people's sensations.
模索しています
21:49
I mean, if you actually measure
もし実際に
21:52
the temperature over a period --
長期間の温度を測定すれば
21:54
I mean, the temperature has been measured now
まあ この50年から60年は
21:56
pretty carefully for about 50, 60 years --
かなり慎重に観測されているけれど
21:58
longer than that it's been measured,
それより長期間観測はされているけれど
22:01
but in really nice, precise ways,
精度良く測定され
22:03
and records have been kept for 50 or 60 years,
きちんと記録されているのは この50, 60年です
22:05
and in fact, the temperature hadn't really gone up.
そして実際のところ温度は上昇していません
22:08
It's like, the average temperature
平均温度はほんの少し
22:10
has gone up a tiny little bit,
上昇していますが
22:12
because the nighttime temperatures
観測所の夜間気温が
22:14
at the weather stations have come up just a little bit.
ほんの少し上昇しているからです
22:17
But there's a good explanation for that.
しかしこれにはちゃんとした理由があります
22:19
And it's that the weather stations are all built outside of town,
観測所は全て空港のある町の
22:21
where the airport was, and now
郊外に作られました
22:24
the town's moved out there, there's concrete all around
街がそこまで広がっていて
22:26
and they call it the skyline effect.
コンクリートに取り囲まれていて
スカイライン効果と呼ばれています
22:28
And most responsible people
温度測定担当者の多くは
22:30
that measure temperatures realize
観測装置を
22:32
you have to shield your measuring device from that.
遮蔽する必要があると気付いています
22:34
And even then, you know,
それを行っても更に
22:36
because the buildings get warm in the daytime,
ビルが日中に温まり
22:39
and they keep it a little warmer at night.
夜間も若干保温されます
22:40
So the temperature has been, sort of, inching up.
そう言うわけで温度は少し上がっているのです
22:42
It should have been. But not a lot. Not like, you know --
当然のことだし 大幅な上昇でもありません
22:44
the first guy -- the first guy that got the idea
人類が地球上で干上がるだろうと
22:47
that we're going to fry ourselves here,
最初に思いついたヤツが言ったほどには
22:49
actually, he didn't think of it that way.
だいたい彼はそんな風に考えていませんでした
22:51
His name was Sven Arrhenius. He was Swedish, and he said,
彼の名前はスヴァンテ・アレニウス
スウェーデン人で
22:53
if you double the CO2 level in the atmosphere,
環境中のCO2レベルを倍増させると
22:56
which he thought might -- this is in 1900 --
1900年当時 将来その可能性があると考えていた彼は
22:59
the temperature ought to go up about 5.5 degrees, he calculated.
温度は5.5度上昇するはずだと算出しました
23:02
He was thinking of the earth as, kind of like,
彼は地球を
23:05
you know, like a completely insulated thing
空っぽで完全に断熱された
23:07
with no stuff in it, really,
エネルギーが降り注ぎ 出て行くだけのもの
23:10
just energy coming down, energy leaving.
として捉えていました
23:12
And so he came up with this theory,
そしてこの理論が生まれました
23:14
and he said, this will be cool,
そして彼はこれを良いことだと
23:16
because it'll be a longer growing season in Sweden,
なぜならスウェーデンでは耕作期間が延びます
23:18
you know, and the surfers liked it,
それにサーファーも喜びました
23:21
the surfers thought, that's a cool idea,
そりゃいいアイディアだって
23:23
because it's pretty cold in the ocean sometimes, and --
海は時にとても冷たいからね
23:25
but a lot of other people later on
でも後になって多くの人達が
23:28
started thinking it would be bad, you know.
これは困ったことだと考え始めたんです
23:30
But nobody actually demonstrated it, right?
でも誰一人として実証してないでしょ?
23:33
I mean, the temperature as measured --
観測された温度は皆さんも
23:35
and you can find this on our wonderful Internet,
インターネット上で見つけることができるのですが
23:37
you just go and look for all NASAs records,
ただ NASAと気象庁の情報を
23:39
and all the Weather Bureau's records,
くまなくチェックするだけでいいのです
23:42
and you'll look at it yourself, and you'll see, the temperature has just --
自分の目で確かめれば
温度はただ
23:44
the nighttime temperature measured on the surface of the planet
地表で観測された夜間の温度がほんのちょっとだけ
23:47
has gone up a tiny little bit.
上昇していることが理解できるでしょう
23:50
So if you just average that and the daytime temperature, it looks like it went up
そしてもしそれと日中の温度を平均すると
23:52
about .7 degrees in this century.
今世紀に0.7度ほど上昇したかのように見えます
23:54
But in fact, it was just coming up --
しかし実際は
23:57
it was the nighttime; the daytime temperatures didn't go up.
上昇しているのは夜間で
日中の温度は上昇していません
23:59
So -- and Arrhenius' theory --
つまり アレニウスの理論および
24:01
and all the global warmers think --
地球温暖化論者の考えによると
24:04
they would say, yeah, it should go up in the daytime, too,
もしそれが温室効果によるものなら 日中の温度も
24:06
if it's the greenhouse effect.
上昇していないとおかしいのです
24:08
Now, people like things that have, like, names like that,
人はあのように想像力を刺激する
24:10
that they can envision it, right? I mean --
レッテルが貼られたものを好みます
24:13
but people don't like things like this, so -- most -- I mean,
その逆に人々は
24:16
you don't get all excited about things
1990年代の熱帯対流の活発化を
24:18
like the actual evidence, you know,
裏付ける証拠となりうる
24:21
which would be evidence for strengthening
実際のデータなどに
24:23
of the tropical circulation in the 1990s.
心を躍らせることはないのです
24:25
It's a paper that came out in February,
これは2月に発表された論文ですが
24:28
and most of you probably hadn't heard about it.
ほとんどの方はご存知ないでしょう
24:30
"Evidence for Large Decadal Variability
『熱帯の平均放射収支における
24:33
in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget."
大きな10年変動の証拠』
24:35
Excuse me. Those papers were published by NASA,
それらは NASAの科学者の
24:39
and some scientists at Columbia, and Viliki
ヴィリキーと
24:42
and a whole bunch of people, Princeton.
プリンストン大学など
大勢で発表した論文です
24:44
And those two papers came out in Science Magazine,
そしてサイエンス誌に2月1日に発表された
24:47
February the first,
2つの論文
24:50
and these -- the conclusion in both of these papers,
そしてこれらの論文と
24:52
and in also the Science editor's, like,
サイエンス誌の編集者の結論はどちらも
24:55
descriptions of these papers, for, you know,
論文の記述を
24:58
for the quickie,
手短にいうと
25:00
is that our theories about global warming
地球温暖化に関する理論は
25:02
are completely wrong. I mean,
根本的に間違っている
25:04
what these guys were doing,
この人達が行っていること
25:06
and this is what -- the NASA people have been saying this for a long time.
そしてNASAの人達が前から言っていたことですが
25:08
They say, if you measure the temperature of the atmosphere, it isn't going up --
もし大気圏の温度を観測したら
上昇していません
25:11
it's not going up at all. We've doing it very carefully now for 20 years,
全く上昇していません
この20年間かなり精密に
25:14
from satellites, and it isn't going up.
衛星から観測を続けていますが
上昇はしていません
25:17
And in this paper, they show something much more striking,
またこの論文にはもっと驚くべきことが示されています
25:20
and that was that they did what they call a radiation --
それは輻射に関することで
25:23
and I'm not going to go into the details of it, actually it's quite complicated,
実際とても複雑なので詳細は省きますが
25:26
but it isn't as complicated as they might make you think it is
彼らが世間を煙に巻くために使っている
難解な用語から
25:29
by the words they use in those papers. If you really get down to it, they say,
受ける印象ほど難解というわけでもありません
骨子はこうです
25:32
the sun puts out a certain amount of energy --
太陽はある量のエネルギーを出しており
25:35
we know how much that is --
我々はその具体的な値を知っています
25:37
it falls on the earth, the earth gives back a certain amount.
それは地球に降り注ぎ
地球はある一定量を跳ね返す
25:39
When it gets warm it generates --
温まると赤外線といった
25:41
it makes redder energy -- I mean, like infra-red,
赤色寄りのエネルギーを出します
25:44
like something that's warm gives off infra-red.
温かい物体は赤外線を出すんです
25:47
The whole business of the global warming --
地球温暖化の理屈というのは
25:50
trash, really,
実際はクズだけど
25:52
is that -- if the -- if there's too much CO2 in the atmosphere,
要は もし環境中に余計なCO2があると
25:54
the heat that's trying to escape
熱が逃げられなくなる
25:57
won't be able to get out. But the heat coming from the sun,
しかしながら太陽からの熱は
25:59
which is mostly down in the -- it's like 350 nanometers,
波長が350ナノメートルとかで
26:02
which is where it's centered -- that goes right through CO2.
CO2を何事もなく通り抜ける
26:05
So you still get heated, but you don't dissipate any.
だから温め続けられる一方で
その熱を発散できないというものです
26:08
Well, these guys measured all of those things.
で この人達はそれらを全て測定したのです
26:10
I mean, you can talk about that stuff,
そういう話をしたり
26:12
and you can write these large reports, and you can get government money to do it,
これらの分厚いレポートを書いたり
政府に助成してもらえますが
26:14
but these -- they actually measured it,
でも 実際に測定したら
26:17
and it turns out that in the last 10 years --
そしたらこの10年間において
26:20
that's why they say "decadal" there --
題名にも『10年』ってあるけど
26:22
that the energy -- that the level
エネルギーレベルの
26:24
of what they call "imbalance"
いわゆる「不均衡」は
26:27
has been way the hell over what was expected.
予測をはるかに上回っていた
26:29
Like, the amount of imbalance --
不均衡の総量
26:32
meaning, heat's coming in and it's not going out
入って来るのに出て行かない
26:35
that you would get from having double the CO2,
それは CO2が2倍に達した場合に想定される量で
26:38
which we're not anywhere near that, by the way.
今の値は全然そこまで行ってないのに
26:40
But if we did, in 2025 or something,
仮に2025年とかに1900年のCO2濃度の
26:43
have double the CO2 as we had in 1900,
2倍になったとしたら
26:45
they say it would be increase the energy budget
エネルギー収支は
26:48
by about -- in other words,
別の表現にすると
26:50
one watt per square centimeter more
1平方センチメートル毎に1ワット
26:53
would be coming in than going out.
入る方が出る方より多くなると想定していて
26:55
So the planet should get warmer.
だから地球は温暖化するはずだと
26:57
Well, they found out in this study -- these two studies
で この2つの別のチームによる2つの研究で
27:00
by two different teams --
判明したことは
27:02
that five and a half watts
1998年 1999年からは
27:04
per square meter
1平方メートル毎に
27:06
had been coming in from 1998, 1999,
5.5ワット入ってきて
27:08
and the place didn't get warmer.
そして温度は上昇していない
27:11
So the theory's kaput -- it's nothing.
というわけでその理論は お釈迦
27:13
These papers should have been called,
これらの論文のタイトルは
27:15
"The End to the Global Warming Fiasco," you know.
『地球温暖化騒動に終止符』とでもすべきです
27:17
They're concerned,
彼らは警戒しています
27:20
and you can tell they have very guarded conclusions in these papers,
これらの論文が非常に慎重な結論になっ ているのが
読み取れるはずです
27:22
because they're talking about big laboratories
なぜなら 恐怖心を煽られた多くの人々と
27:25
that are funded by lots of money
巨額の資金にサポートされた
27:27
and by scared people.
大規模な研究所に影響することだから
27:29
You know, if they said, you know what?
もしもたとえば
27:31
There isn't a problem with global warming any longer,
地球温暖化問題なんかもうない と言ってしまったら
27:33
so we can -- you know, they're funding.
助成金とか
27:35
And if you start a grant request with something like that,
もしそんなことに補助金の申請をして
27:37
and say, global warming obviously hadn't happened ...
地球温暖化の兆候が見られなかったら
27:40
if they -- if they -- if they actually -- if they actually said that,
そしてもしそんなことを発表してしまったら・・・
27:42
I'm getting out.
そろそろ切り上げます
27:44
(Laughter)
(笑)
27:46
I'll stand up too, and --
僕も起立しようかな
27:49
(Laughter)
(笑)
27:51
(Applause)
(拍手)
27:53
They have to say that.
彼らはああ言うしかなかったんだです
27:56
They had to be very cautious.
彼らは非常に慎重にならざるをえませんでした
27:58
But what I'm saying is, you can be delighted,
でも僕が言いたいのは
皆さん喜んで下さいってこと
28:00
because the editor of Science, who is no dummy,
だってサイエンス誌の編集者はバカじゃないし
28:02
and both of these fairly professional --
そしてどちらも本当に専門的な
28:05
really professional teams, have really come to the same conclusion
2つのチームが同じ結論に達したんですから
28:08
and in the bottom lines in their papers
そして彼らの論文の結論として
こう言わざるを得ません
28:11
they have to say, what this means is, that what we've been thinking,
このデータが意味するところは
我々が考えてきた
28:13
was the global circulation model that we predict
地球がオーバーヒートしてしまうという
28:16
that the earth is going to get overheated
地球の循環モデルは完全に間違いで
28:18
that it's all wrong. It's wrong by a large factor.
それも桁違いの誤りだったっということ
28:20
It's not by a small one. They just --
ちょっとやそっとじゃない
28:23
they just misinterpreted the fact that the earth --
地球について解釈を誤っていた
28:26
there's obviously some mechanisms going on
地球上では明らかに 未解明の
28:29
that nobody knew about,
未知のメカニズムが働いています
28:31
because the heat's coming in and it isn't getting warmer.
なぜなら 熱は入ってきているのに
温暖化はしていないから
28:33
So the planet is a pretty amazing thing, you know,
つまり惑星と言うのはとても驚くべきもので
28:35
it's big and horrible -- and big and wonderful,
巨大で 脅威でもあり 巨大な神秘でもあります
28:38
and it does all kinds of things we don't know anything about.
そして我々にとって全くの未知の働きをしています
28:40
So I mean, the reason I put those things all together,
これらを全部一緒に話したのはつまり
28:43
OK, here's the way you're supposed to do science --
科学とはこう実践すべきものですよと
28:45
some science is done for other reasons, and just curiosity.
一部の科学は純粋な探究心だけの
別の目的で行われています
28:47
And there's a lot of things like global warming,
地球温暖化と同じようなものは
他にも沢山あります
28:50
and ozone hole and you know,
オゾンホールとか
28:52
a whole bunch of scientific public issues,
有象無象の科学的社会問題
28:54
that if you're interested in them,
もし興味を持ったなら
28:56
then you have to get down the details, and read the papers called,
詳細をきちんと調べなきゃ こんな論文も読んで
28:58
"Large Decadal Variability in the ... "
『大きな10年変動の・・・』
29:01
You have to figure out what all those words mean.
用語の意味もしっかり理解して
29:03
And if you just listen to the guys
そしてこういった問題を煽ることで
29:05
who are hyping those issues, and making a lot of money out of it,
大金を儲けてる人の言うことを聞くだけじゃ
29:07
you'll be misinformed, and you'll be worrying about the wrong things.
正しい情報は手に入らず
必要ないことに怯えることになります
29:10
Remember the 10 things that are going to get you. The -- one of them --
覚えてますか?『心配すべき10項目』
そのひとつは
29:13
(Laughter)
(笑)
29:16
And the asteroids is the one I really agree with there.
小惑星についてはホントに同感です
29:18
I mean, you've got to watch out for asteroids. OK, thank you for having me here.
小惑星は警戒しなきゃダメですよ
じゃ お招きいただきありがとう
29:21
(Applause)
(拍手)
29:24
Translator:Shinobu Enda
Reviewer:Masaki Yanagishita

sponsored links

Kary Mullis - Biochemist
Kary Mullis won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing a way to copy a strand of DNA. (His technique, called PCR, jump-started the 1990s' biorevolution.) He's known for his wide-ranging interests -- and strong opinions.

Why you should listen

In the early 1980s, Kary Mullis developed the polymerase chain reaction, an elegant way to make copies of a DNA strand using the enzyme polymerase and some basic DNA "building blocks." The process opened the door to more in-depth study of DNA -- like the Human Genome Project. Mullis shared the 1993 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing this technique.

As he tells it, after winning the Nobel Prize, his next career move was to learn how to surf. It's typical of Mullis, whose scientific method is to get deeply curious about a topic, work it out from first principles, and then imagine the next giant leap forward. As he puts it in his Nobel autobiography, revised several times since 1993, "I read a lot, and think a lot, and I can talk about almost anything. Being a Nobel laureate is a license to be an expert in lots of things as long as you do your homework."

Most recently, he's been taking a hard look at immunity; a recent patent from his company Altermune describes the redirection of an existing immune response to a new pathogen.

The original video is available on TED.com
sponsored links

If you need translations, you can install "Google Translate" extension into your Chrome Browser.
Furthermore, you can change playback rate by installing "Video Speed Controller" extension.

Data provided by TED.

This website is owned and operated by Tokyo English Network.
The developer's blog is here.