19:07
TEDxKC

John Gerzema: The post-crisis consumer

ジョン・ガーズマ:金融危機後の消費者のありかた

Filmed:

John Gerzamaは、近年の金融危機に端を発する大混乱を、ポジティブな変化を起こすための絶好の機会だと言う。彼は、新たな消費行動を推進する4つの主要な文化の変化を特定し、企業活動がどのように良識的な消費と結びついて発展しているかを示す。

- Marketing whiz
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising. Full bio

Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth
実に13兆ドルもの富が
00:15
has evaporated over the course of the last two years.
2007年からの2年で消えてしまいました
00:18
We've questioned the future of capitalism.
資本主義の行く末は?
00:21
We've questioned the financial industry.
金融業界の行く末は?
00:23
We've looked at our government oversight.
我々は政府の失敗を見て
00:26
We've questioned where we're going.
将来に不安を感じています
00:28
And yet, at the same time, this very well may be
しかし まさに 今こそが
00:30
a seminal moment in American history,
アメリカの歴史が 大きく変わる時であり
00:32
an opportunity for the consumer
消費者主導という
00:34
to actually take control and guide us
新たな流れを産み出すための
00:36
to a new trajectory in America.
絶好の機会かもしれません
00:38
I'm calling this The Great Unwind.
私はこれを 「グレート アンワインド」 と呼んでいます
00:40
And the idea is a simple, simple idea,
とてもシンプルな考えです
00:43
which is the fact that the consumer
消費者は 不安がるだけではなく
00:46
has moved from a state of anxiety to action.
自らが行動しよう という考えです
00:48
Consumers who represent 72 percent
アメリカGDPの72%を占める消費者は
00:51
of the GDP of America have actually started,
銀行や企業のように
00:54
just like banks and just like businesses,
日常生活において レバレッジの“不”実践
00:57
to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage,
その縮小を始めています
00:59
in daily life, to remove themselves
将来を見据えて
01:02
from the liability and risk
債務やリスクを
01:04
that presents itself as we move forward.
日常から 減らしているのです
01:06
So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --
しかし 強調しておきたいのは
01:09
it's not about the consumer being in retreat.
今日お話するのは 消費者が弱気だ という話ではなく
01:11
The consumer is empowered.
主導権を握っている話だ ということです
01:13
In order to understand this, we're going to step back and look
ここ1年半に起こったことを少し振り返れば
01:15
a little bit at what's happened over the course of the last year and a half.
おわかり頂けるでしょう
01:17
So, if you've been gone, this is the easy CliffsNotes
おっとご安心を 経済の動向についての
01:20
on what's happened in the economy. Okay?
おなじみの入門書を 引用しましたから
01:22
(Laughter)
(笑)
01:24
Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.
失業率は上昇 住宅価格と株価は下落
01:25
Commodity prices are like this.
商品市場は大荒れ
01:28
If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,
去年は石油が1バレル150ドル
01:30
and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,
今年は約50~70ドル
01:32
and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,
もし家計のやり繰りに悩んでいたら
01:35
do you plan vacations? How do you buy?
どう休暇の予定を立て 物を購入しますか?
01:37
What is your strategy in your household?
家計の方針はどうします?
01:39
Will the bailout work? We have national debt, Detroit,
債務・自動車産業の失業者―
01:41
currency valuations, healthcare, all these issues facing us.
為替・保険の問題があるのに 救済策は機能するでしょうか
01:43
You put them all together, you mix them up in a bouillabaisse,
ブイヤベースみたいに 一緒くたにしても
01:46
and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time-bomb.
市民からの信頼は 一瞬しか得られません
01:49
In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,
さて 金融危機を引き起こした原因の大部分は
01:53
because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,
消費者の 私たち全員の
01:56
actually contributed a large part to the problem.
日常生活にあった事を 確認しましょう
01:58
This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.
私はこれを50-20のパラドックスと呼んでいます
02:01
It took us 50 years
個人の年間貯蓄率は
02:03
to reach annual savings ratings
50年もかかって
02:06
of almost 10 percent. 50 years.
ようやく 約10%に到達します 50年ですよ
02:08
Do you know what this was right here?
表の左部分
02:11
This was World War II. Do you know why savings was so high?
WWⅡの間 貯蓄率が 非常に高い理由は
02:13
There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets. Right?
金属鋲しか 買う物がなかったからです
02:16
So, what happened though, over the course of the last 20 years --
一方 最近20年の貯蓄率ですが
02:19
we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.
10%から下落し マイナスになりました
02:22
Because we binged. We bought extra-large cars,
これは 消費ブームが原因です
02:26
supersized everything, we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.
私たちが買った 特大サイズの車やバカでかいもの
02:31
All these things together basically created
むずむず脚症候群の薬が
02:35
a factor where the consumer sort of drove us
今 私たちが直面している危機に
02:37
headlong into the crisis that we face today.
転落する要因だったのです
02:40
The personal debt-to-income ratio
約15年で レバレッジの掛けすぎにより
02:42
basically went from 65 percent
個人の債務返済負担率は
02:45
to 135 percent in the span of about 15 years.
65%から135%に上昇しました
02:47
So consumers got overleveraged.
消費者は 無理な借金をしていたのです
02:51
And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.
銀行も 政府同様 素晴らしかった ただし悪い意味で
02:54
This is an absolutely staggering chart.
預託機関 借入額の表では
02:57
It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.
1919年から2009年の レバレッジに関する
02:59
And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon
驚くべき現状を 目の当たりに出来ます
03:03
of the fact that we are actually
我々は家計のため
03:06
stepping forth and basically leveraging
最終的に 子供達の未来を
03:08
future education, future children in our households.
てこに利用しているのです
03:10
So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,
救済策を視覚化しましょう
03:13
what you can see is if you stack up dollar bills,
36万ドル分の紙幣を積み重ねると
03:16
first of all, 360,000 dollars
その高さは
03:19
is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.
163cmの 低めの男性ぐらいになります
03:21
But if you stack it up, you just see this amazing, staggering amount of
ですが 救済のため システムにつぎ込んだ
03:24
dollars that have been put into the system
初めの3150億円を
03:27
to fund and bail us out.
積み重ねると 右下のように
03:29
So this is the first 315 billion.
あり得ない高さになるとわかるでしょう
03:31
But I read this fact the other day, that one trillion seconds
あっちに1兆ドル投入
03:33
equals 32 thousand years,
こっちも1兆と
03:36
so if you think about that, the context, the casualness
軽く話していますが
03:38
with which we talk about trillion-dollar bailout here, and trillion there,
1兆秒は 3万2千年にもなるんですよ
03:40
we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.
我々は そんな額の長期レバレッジを積んでいるのです
03:44
However, consumers have moved.
しかし 消費者は
03:47
They are taking responsibility.
責任を取るようになってきています
03:50
What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.
危機の始まり以来
03:52
In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened
貯蓄率は
03:55
since the beginning of the crisis.
10%に戻そう という働きかけのおかげで
03:57
We are working our way back up to that 10 percent.
11か月連続で 上昇しています
03:59
Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,
また 第4半期では
04:01
spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years,
消費は一気に3.7%近く落ち
04:03
almost a 3.7 percent decline.
ここ62年中で最低値を示しました
04:07
Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards
Visa社が発表した
04:10
than they're using credit cards.
クレジットカードより デビットカード払いが多い事実は
04:12
So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.
人々が 所持金で支払うようになった事を 示唆します
04:14
And we're starting to be much more careful
そして 貯蓄と投資にも
04:17
about how we save and how we invest.
用心深くなりました
04:19
But that's not really the whole story.
しかし これだけでは終わりません
04:21
Because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.
今は 激動の時でもあるのですから
04:23
And you've got to admit, over the course of the last year and a half,
さて 消費者が この1年半
04:26
consumers have been doing some pretty weird things.
とても信じられない事をしたおかげで
04:28
It's been pretty staggering, what we've lived through.
我々は 危機を乗り越えられました
04:30
If you take into account 80 percent of all Americans
アメリカ人のうち80%は
04:33
were born after World War II,
WWⅡ後に産まれた事を考慮すれば
04:35
this is essentially our Depression.
今の不況は 自分たちのせいと言えます
04:37
And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.
その結果 おかしな事が起きています
04:39
I'll give you some examples. Lets talk about dentists,
ここでは 歯科医や
04:42
vasectomies, guns and shark attacks. Okay?
精管カット 銃 サメの例を使ってみましょう
04:44
(Laughter)
(笑)
04:48
Dentists report molars,
歯科医によると
04:50
you know, people grinding their teeth, coming in
ストレスがある人がする歯ぎしりが
04:52
and reporting the fact that they've had stress.
増加しているために
04:54
And so there is an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.
奥歯の詰め物を 変えざるを得ない人が 増えているそうです
04:56
Guns, gun sales, according to the FBI,
FBIいわく 銃の販売では
04:59
who does background checks, are up almost 25 percent since January.
身元調査が 1月以降 25%増えました
05:01
Vasectomies are up 48 percent,
精管カットは 48%増えているとの報告が
05:06
according to the Cornell institute.
コーネル大学から出ています
05:08
And lastly, but a very good point,
最後にとても良い話を
05:10
hopefully not related to the former point I just made,
精管カットと 関係ないと良いのですが―
05:13
which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.
サメの襲来が 2003年以降で最小回数
05:15
Does anybody know why?
なぜだか わかりますか?
05:18
No one is at the beach. So there is a bright side to everything.
海岸に人がいないからです 何にでも良い点がありますね
05:22
But seriously, what we see happening,
しかし真面目な話をすると
05:25
and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,
消費者は弱腰でない と強調する理由は
05:27
is that this is a tremendous opportunity
今を絶好の機会と見て
05:30
for the consumer who drove us into this recession
不況からの脱出を 先導してくれる
05:32
to lead us right back out.
消費者がいるからです
05:35
And what I mean by that is that we can move from mindless consumption
つまり 軽薄な消費から
05:37
to mindful consumption. Right?
賢明な消費が できるようになっている という事です
05:40
If you think about the last three decades,
ここ30年を考えてみましょう
05:43
the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,
この10年 消費者は 社会的な検索ツールによって
05:46
to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade,
90年代の販売戦略から 逃れましたが
05:50
but the one thing that has been holding them back is the ability to discriminate.
欲求の識別能力だけは 進歩が遅れたままでした
05:54
By restricting their demand, consumers can actually
消費者が 需要を制限すれば
05:57
align their values with their spending,
消費の価値観を 変えられます
05:59
and drive capitalism and business
資本主義や 企業がする活動を
06:02
to not just be about more, but be about better.
「量」から「質」重視に 変えられます
06:04
We're going to explain that right now.
この事を 説明していきましょう
06:06
Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,
Young&Rubicam社のデータベースである
06:09
proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,
VMLブランド資産測定ツールを使用します
06:11
we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis
危機の際 消費者市場では
06:14
with the consumer marketplace.
何が起きていたのでしょうか
06:16
We found a couple of really interesting things.
とても興味深い事が起きていたのです
06:19
We're going to go through four value-shifts that we see
4つの価値観の変化の結果
06:21
driving new consumer behaviors,
消費者は 態度を改め
06:24
that offer new management principles.
企業は 新たなマネジメント原則を採用しました
06:26
The first cultural value shift that we see is this tendency
一つ目の 文化的な価値観の変化は
06:28
toward something we call liquid life.
流動的な生活の 傾向です
06:30
This is the movement from Americans defining their success
アメリカ人は 成功を 物を持つ事でなく
06:32
on having things to having liquidity,
流動性がある事と 定義するようになりました
06:35
because the less excess that you have around you,
余分な所持品が減るほど
06:38
the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.
機敏になれるからです
06:40
As a result, déclassé consumption is in.
結果 消費は衰退していきます
06:43
Déclassé consumption is the whole idea that spending money
つまらない物に お金を費やすことが
06:45
frivolously makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.
時代遅れに見えるようになるからです
06:48
The management principle is dollars and cents.
マネジメント原則は お金なのです
06:52
So let's look at some examples of this déclassé
さて この価値に基づく
06:54
consumption that falls out of this value.
消費の衰退例を 見てみましょう
06:56
First things is we see something must be happening when
まず ラッパーのP.ディディの
06:59
P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.
ギラギラな宝石は減らすという誓い
07:01
(Laughter)
(笑)
07:03
But seriously, we also have this phenomenon
いやいや これは 高級ブランド店が並ぶ
07:04
on Madison Avenue and in other places,
マディソン通りでも起きている事です
07:06
where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques
消費者は 買った高級ブランド品を
07:08
with ordinary, sort of generic
ノーブランドの紙袋で隠して
07:11
paper bags to hide the brand purchases.
店から出て行くのですから
07:13
We see high-end haggling in fashion today.
高級品や 土地のようなものですら
07:15
High-end haggling for luxury and real estate.
値切りが 流行しています
07:18
We also see just a relaxing of ego,
エゴや 狡賢さを 減らす例も
07:21
and sort of a dismantling of artifice.
見受けられます
07:23
This is a story on the yacht club
あるヨットクラブの例です
07:25
that's all basically blue collar.
実は肉体労働派のクラブで
07:27
Blue-collar yacht club, where you can join the yacht club,
入会する事はできるのですが
07:29
but you've got to work in the boat yard,
停船所で働くことが
07:31
as sort of condition of membership.
メンバーの条件となっています
07:33
We also see the trend toward
ちょっと地味な旅も
07:35
tourism that's a little bit more low key. Right?
流行っていますよ
07:37
Agritourism, going to vineyards and going to farms.
ぶどう園や農園に行く アグリツアーです
07:40
And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents.
お金の面でも 同じ風潮があります
07:43
What businesses can do to connect
企業が 新たな価値観を結び合うという
07:46
with these new mindsets is really interesting.
役割を担っている事に関する例を挙げます
07:48
A couple things that are kind of cool.
面白いものが いくつもありますよ
07:50
One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing
Frito-Layという食品会社は
07:52
with their consumer.
消費者の流動性について 発見をしました
07:54
They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month,
消費者が持つお金は
07:56
less at the end of the month. So what they did
月末より 月初めが多いという事です
07:58
is they started to change their packaging.
そこで彼らは パッケージを
08:00
Larger packs at the beginning of the month, smaller packaging
月初めは大きいものに
08:02
at the end of the month.
月末は小さいものに 変更しました
08:04
Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants.
サンフランシスコ・ジャイアンツの
08:06
They've just instituted dynamic pricing.
試合の観戦料金も面白い例で
08:09
So it takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups,
彼らは料金を 試合毎に 決定しています
08:12
to the weather, to the team records,
ピッチャー 天気 チームの記録など
08:14
in setting prices for the consumer.
様々な事を 考慮するからです
08:17
Another quick example of these types of movements is
Zynga社という ゲーム会社の例です
08:19
the rise of Zynga.
ここが人気になったのは
08:22
Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire
消費者が敬遠する
08:24
to not want to be locked in to fixed-cost.
定額支払い制度を やめたからです
08:26
Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living.
つまり コスト感と生活が変わり
08:29
So micropayments have become huge.
少額決済が 増加しているという事です
08:31
And lastly, some people are using Hulu
最後に ケーブルテレビから
08:33
actually as a device to get rid of their cable bill.
Huluに移行している人もいます
08:36
So, really clever ideas there
この賢い考えを
08:38
that are kind of being taken ahold and marketers are starting to understand.
マーケティング側は 理解しはじめています
08:40
The second of the four values
二つ目の価値観の変化である
08:43
is this movement toward ethics and fair play.
倫理感とフェアプレーは
08:45
We see that play itself out with empathy and respect.
共感と 尊重が 鍵です
08:48
The consumer is demanding it.
消費者の要求により
08:51
And, as a result, businesses must provide
企業は様々な価値を
08:53
not only value, but values.
提供せざるを得ない状況です
08:55
Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company,
企業の文化や 市場での振る舞いは
08:57
looking for their conduct in the marketplace.
消費者の 注目の的になってきています
08:59
So, what we see with empathy and respect, lots of really hopeful things
共感と尊重の重視により
09:02
that have come out of this recession.
不況から多くの希望が生まれました
09:04
And I'll give you a few examples.
いくつか例をあげましょう
09:06
One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods,
地域社会では 隣人を重視して
09:08
and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system.
支援をする活動が 増えてきました
09:10
Also a wonderful byproduct of sort of a really lousy thing,
失業のように 最悪な事ですら
09:14
which has been unemployment, is a rise in
我が国特有の ボランティア精神の向上という
09:18
volunteerism that's been noted in our country.
副産物を 産み出しています
09:20
We also see the phenomenon --
経済的困難から
09:22
some of you may have "boomerang kids" --
親元に 出戻らざるを得ない
09:24
these are "boomerang alumni,"
卒業生”ブーメラン・キッズ”に
09:26
where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni
大学が 就職や 技能習得の支援や
09:28
in helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining.
再教育をしている例もあります
09:30
We also talked about character and professionalism.
人格とプロ意識について
09:34
We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City, you know, in January,
1月に起きた ハドソン川の奇跡以降
09:36
and suddenly Sully has become a key name on Babycenter.
急に サリーという名前の赤ちゃんが 増えました
09:40
(Laughter)
(笑)
09:44
So, from a value and values standpoint,
更に 企業は
09:45
what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways.
多彩な方法で 様々な価値を 繋ぐ事ができます
09:47
Microsoft is doing something wonderful.
Microsoft社の素晴らしい点は
09:50
They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with I.T. training,
自社インフラを使って 20万人のアメリカ人に
09:52
using their existing infrastructure to do something good.
IT教育を 続けている事です
09:56
Also a really interesting company is Gore-Tex.
Gore-Tex社も 良質な例で
09:59
Gore-Tex is all about personal accountability
経営者も 労働者にも
10:02
of their management and their employees,
説明義務がありますし
10:04
to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses.
上司という考えを 避けています
10:06
But they also talk about the fact that
ただ同時に
10:10
their executives, all of their expense reports
役員は 支出報告書を 社内ネットワーク上で
10:12
are put onto their company intranet for everyone to see.
全社員が 見られるようにしているそうですが
10:14
Complete transparency.
素晴らしい透明性
10:17
Think twice before you have that bottle of wine.
ワインを買う時にも 熟慮が必須です
10:19
The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism
3つ目の消費主義の変化は
10:22
is about durable living.
耐久性のある生活です
10:25
We're seeing on our data that consumers are realizing
消費者は 消費を 短距離走ではなく
10:27
this is a marathon, not a sprint.
長距離走だと 悟っています
10:29
They are digging in. And they're looking for ways to extract value
更に 全ての消費から
10:31
out of every purchase that they make.
価値を得ようとしています
10:33
Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars
アメリカ人の 車の平均使用年数は
10:36
longer than ever before,
過去にないほど 伸びており
10:38
9.4 years on average, in March. A record.
3月に 平均9.4年という 新記録がでました
10:40
We also see the fact that libraries have become
図書館も アメリカでは
10:44
a huge resource for America.
重要視されるようになりました
10:46
Did you know that 68 percent of Americans
68%のアメリカ人が
10:48
now carry a library card?
図書館カードを持っている事も
10:50
The highest percentage ever in our nation's history.
史上最高記録です
10:52
So what you see in this trend is also
ここからわかる流行は
10:54
the accumulation of knowledge.
知識の蓄積です
10:56
Continuing education is up.
生涯教育も増加しています
10:58
Everything is focused on betterment, and training,
全てを改良・鍛錬させ
11:00
and development and moving forward.
発展・前進させようとしています
11:02
We also see a big DIY movement.
DIYも大ブームです
11:04
I was fascinated to learn that 30 percent
アメリカにある家のうち30%は
11:07
of all homes in America are actually built by owners.
所有者 自らが立てたなんて 驚きませんか
11:10
That includes cottages and the like. But 30 percent.
小屋などを含むとはいえ 30%もですよ
11:13
So, people are getting their hands dirty. They are rolling up their sleeves.
人々は手を汚しながらも 袖をまくって
11:16
They want these skills.
技能を磨こうとしているという事です
11:18
We see that with the phenomenon of raising backyard
庭での 鶏飼育の例があります
11:20
hens and chickens and ducks. And when you work out the math,
量産するのではなく
11:22
they say it doesn't work, but the principle is there
持続的で 自分の体にも良い飼育を
11:25
that it's about being sustainable and taking care of yourself.
原理として 育てています
11:27
And then we look at the High Line in New York City,
ニューヨークに新たに出来た High Line公園は
11:31
an excellent use of reimagining
高架貨物線の線路跡を
11:33
existing infrastructure for something good, which is
上手に再利用することで
11:35
a brand new park in New York City.
生まれ変わった例です
11:37
So, what brands can do, and companies,
企業ができる事は
11:39
is pay dividends to consumers,
消費者利益の創出
11:41
be a brand that lasts,
恒久的ブランドの構築
11:43
offer transparency, promise you're going to be there beyond today's sale.
透明性の提供 売上を超越する事です
11:45
Perfect example of that is Patagonia.
Patagonia社の例は必見です
11:48
Patagonia's Footprint Chronicles basically
Patagonia Footprint Chroniclesとして
11:51
goes through and tracks every product that they make,
製品が出来るまでの道のりを公表して
11:53
and gives you social responsibility,
社会的責任を喚起する姿から
11:56
and helps you understand the ethics
製品を超越する倫理観が
11:58
that are behind the product that they make.
お解り頂けるでしょう
12:00
Another great example is Fidelity.
Fidelity社も見事で
12:02
Rather than instant cash-back rewards on your credit or debit purchases,
顧客口座へのキャッシュバックのかわりに
12:04
this is about 529 rewards
529もの教育に
12:07
for your student education.
奨励金を出しています
12:09
Or the interesting company SunRun.
私が好きなSunRun社は
12:12
I love this company. They've created a consumer collective
消費者の共同体をつくりました
12:14
where they put solar panels on households
家庭に設置したソーラーパネルで
12:17
and create a consumer-based utility,
利用分の電気をまかないつつ
12:20
where the electricity that they generate is basically
余剰分を市場に売却する
12:22
pumped back out into the marketplace.
仕組みをつくりあげました
12:24
So, it's a consumer driven co-op.
消費者推進の協同組合ですね
12:26
So, the fourth sort of post-crisis consumerism that we see
4つ目は 現代で非常に重要な
12:28
is this movement about return to the fold.
価値観の変化である
12:31
It's incredibly important right now.
再集団化への歩みです
12:34
Trust is not parceled out, as we all know.
信頼は ばらまくものではなく
12:36
It's now about connecting to your communities,
共同体や 社会ネットワークを 繋ぐもの という事は
12:39
connecting to your social networks.
ご存じの通りです
12:41
In my book I talked about the fact that 72 percent
拙著で述べましたが
12:43
of people trust what other people say
広告を信頼する消費者は15%
12:45
about a brand or a company, versus 15 percent on advertising.
対する72%は ブランドや企業の評判を信頼します
12:47
So, in that respect,
協力的な消費主義が
12:50
cooperative consumerism has really taken off.
始まっていると言えます
12:52
This is about consumers working together
消費者は 欲しい物を
12:54
to get what they want out of the marketplace.
市場外から得るため 協力しています
12:56
Let's look at a couple of quick examples.
いくつか例をあげましょう
12:58
The artisanal movement is huge.
生産者の運動は 大きなものです
13:00
Everything about locally derived products and services,
農作物やサービスは
13:02
supporting your local neighborhoods,
チーズであれワインであれ
13:05
whether it's cheeses, wines and other products.
近所の生産者のおかげで 地元で手に入れられます
13:07
Also this rise of local currencies.
また 地域通貨が増えると
13:10
Realizing that it's difficult to get loans in this environment,
地元で信頼する仲間と事業をする人は
13:13
you're doing business with people you trust,
借金が難しくなる事に
13:15
in your local markets.
気付くでしょう
13:17
So, this rise of this sort of local currency
さて 地域通貨は
13:19
is another really interesting phenomenon.
他にも面白い現象を起こしています
13:21
And then they did a recent report
最近発表されたレポートに
13:23
I thought was fascinating.
興味深い結果がありました
13:25
They actually started, in certain communities in the United States,
近年アメリカのいくつかの地域では
13:27
start to publish people's electricity usage.
住民の電気使用量を公表し始めたのですが―
13:29
And what they found out is when that was available for public record,
それによって電気使用量が減少するという
13:32
the people's electricity usage in those communities dropped.
事象が見られたそうです
13:35
Then we also look at the idea of cow-pooling,
牛肉の共同購入の例です
13:39
which is the whole phenomenon of consumers
消費者が望むような管理をしている
13:42
organizing together
安全な 有機飼育の牧場から
13:44
to buy meat from organic farms
肉を手に入れるために
13:46
that they know is safe and controlled in the way that they want it to be controlled.
消費者は 共同組合を形成しました
13:48
And then there is this other really interesting movement
画期的な例として
13:52
that's happened in California, which is about carrot mobs.
カリフォルニアのキャロット・モブ運動があります
13:54
The traditional thing would be to boycott right?
今まではボイコットをしていましたよね
13:57
Have a stick? Well why not have a carrot?
でも 企業が食いつく 餌のニンジンは?
13:59
So these are consumers organizing, pooling their resources
そこで消費者は 共同して
14:01
to incentify companies to do good.
良い企業を 報償するための 基金を作ります
14:05
And then we look at what companies can do.
企業が要望に応える姿を見る私たちは
14:08
This is all the opportunity about being a community organizer.
さながら 共同体の御者と言えるでしょう
14:11
You have to realize that you can't fight and control this.
企業と戦ったり 統制しようとするのではなく
14:14
You actually need to organize it.
企業を組織し 牽引し
14:17
You need to harness it. You need to give it meaning.
意義を提供するのです
14:19
And there is lots of really interesting examples here
印象的な例は
14:21
that we see.
他にもあります
14:23
First is just the rise of the fact that
まずZagat社の例です
14:25
Zagat's has actually moved out of
Zagatサーベイの点数付けのおかげで
14:27
and diversified from rating restaurants,
レストランから病院まで 様々なものが
14:29
into actually rating healthcare.
淘汰され 多様化されました
14:32
So what credentials does Zagat's have?
Zagatに対する強い信頼性は
14:34
Well, they have a lot, because it's their network of people. Right?
人々のネットワークが 礎ですよね
14:36
So that becomes a very powerful force for them
これは 店を融通が利くように変える
14:39
to make their brand more elastic.
強い力の源になりました
14:41
Then you look at the phenomenon of Kogi.
ロサンゼルスで 移動式の飲食店を営む
14:44
This Kogi doesn't exist. It's a moving truck. Right?
Kogiがどこにいるかわかりますか?
14:47
It's a moving truck through L.A., and the only way you can find it
ロス中を回っているので 彼らの居場所は
14:50
is through Twitter.
ツイッターでしか わかりません
14:52
Or you look at Johnson & Johnson's Momversations.
Johnson&Johnson社の Momシリーズは
14:54
A phenomenal blog that's been built up.
ブログの驚異的な力によって 人気が出ました
14:59
Where J&J basically is tapping into
J&J社は 人気な母親ブロガーと接触し
15:01
the power of mommy bloggers,
フォーラムを作ってあげました
15:03
allowing them to basically create a forum
そこでは 母親同士がコミュニケーションをとり
15:05
where they can communicate and they can connect.
繋がる事が できました
15:08
And it's also become a very, very valuable
このフォーラムがJ&J社にとって
15:10
sort of advertising revenue for J&J as well.
強固な広告媒体である事は 言うまでもありません
15:12
This plus the fact that you've got
この他にも
15:15
phenomenal work from CEOs
FordやZapposのCEOのように
15:17
from Ford to Zappos, connecting on Twitter,
ツイッターを利用し
15:19
creating an open environment,
開かれた環境を整え
15:21
allowing their employees to be part of the process,
従業員を表舞台に出す企業でも
15:23
rather than hidden behind walls.
この現象が見られます
15:26
You see this rising force in sort of
企業が透明性を採用し始めたのは
15:28
total transparency and openness that companies are starting to adopt,
消費者の需要という
15:30
all because the consumer is demanding it.
強い力が根源です
15:33
So, when we look at this and we step back,
まとめましょう
15:36
what I believe is that the crisis that exists today
今 危機に直面している事は
15:38
is definitely real.
紛れもない事実です
15:40
It's been tremendously powerful for consumers.
消費者には大きな重しです
15:42
But, at the same time, this is also a tremendous opportunity.
しかし同時に 今は大きな機会でもあります
15:45
And the Chinese character for crisis
危機という漢字の成り立ちを見てください
15:48
is actually the same side of the same coin.
危地の「危」と好機の「機」です
15:50
Crisis equals opportunity.
危機は機会でもあるのです
15:53
What we're seeing with consumers right now
今見てきた消費者の力は
15:55
is the ability for them to actually
きっと不況の
15:57
lead us forward out of this recession.
突破口になるでしょう
15:59
So, we believe that values-driven spending
これらの価値が基礎の消費が
16:01
will force capitalism to be better.
資本主義を進歩させ
16:03
It will drive innovation.
革新を後押しすると信じています
16:06
It will make longer-lasting products. It will
長持ちする製品や
16:08
create better, more intuitive customer service.
我々の価値を広める企業と
16:10
It will give us the opportunity to connect with companies
出会うための機会を
16:12
that share the values that we share.
与えてくれると信じています
16:15
So, when we look back and step out at this
データで見てきた 価値変化の
16:17
and see the beginning of these trends
源泉を振り返れば
16:19
that we're seeing in our data,
気付くはずです
16:21
we see a very hopeful picture for the future of America.
素晴らしいアメリカの未来が 待ち受けている事に
16:23
Thank you very much.
ご静聴ありがとうございました
16:25
(Applause)
(拍手)
16:27
Translated by Tsukina Shiroshita
Reviewed by RINAKO UENISHI

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About the Speaker:

John Gerzema - Marketing whiz
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising.

Why you should listen

John Gerzema has spent his career creating and guiding the brand strategies of many of our household names: McDonald's, BMW, Coca-Cola, United Airlines, Holiday Inn and more. Today, as Chief Insights Officer for marketing giant Young & Rubicam, he combines his expertise with the information reaped from Y&R's Brand Asset Valuator (an enormous database of brands) to understand and anticipate change in the intricate world of commerce.

Gerzema is co-author of The Brand Bubble, a new book that advocates change as the best strategy for brand management in today's market. This is not his first avant-garde move either -- he was one of the early adopters of account planning in American advertising, a method that places the consumer front and center in the branding process. After speaking at TEDxKC, Gerzema penned a second book called Spend Shift based on the premises of his talk on the changing habits of the post-crisis consumer.  

More profile about the speaker
John Gerzema | Speaker | TED.com