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TED2010

Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. memory

ダニエル・カーネマン: 経験と記憶の謎

February 10, 2010

ノーベル賞受賞者であり、行動経済学をつくり上げたダニエル・カーネマンが、休暇や大腸内視鏡検査の例を交えながら、「経験の自己」と「記憶の自己」の幸福の捉え方の違いを語ります。この識見は、経済や公共政策、我々の自己意識と密接な関係をもち、意味深いものです。

Daniel Kahneman - Behavioral economics founder
Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk. Full bio

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Double-click the English subtitles below to play the video.
最近 幸福について話す人が多いですね
00:15
Everybody talks about happiness these days.
過去5年に出版され タイトルに“幸福”が
00:18
I had somebody count the number of books
入っている本を ある人に数えてもらったところ
00:21
with "happiness" in the title published in the last five years
あまりの量で 40冊ほどで諦めてしまいました
00:24
and they gave up after about 40, and there were many more.
研究者たちの幸福に対する興味の高まりは
00:29
There is a huge wave of interest in happiness,
かなりのものです
00:32
among researchers.
幸福のコーチングもたくさん行われ
00:34
There is a lot of happiness coaching.
皆に幸福になってもらいたいことがわかります
00:36
Everybody would like to make people happier.
しかし そのような努力があるにも関わらず
00:38
But in spite of all this flood of work,
幸福について 明瞭に考えることを
00:42
there are several cognitive traps
ほぼ不可能にしてしまう認知の罠が
00:44
that sort of make it almost impossible to think straight
幾つかあります
00:47
about happiness.
今日は この認知の罠を取り上げます
00:49
And my talk today will be mostly about these cognitive traps.
これは自らの幸福を願う一般の人にも
00:52
This applies to laypeople thinking about their own happiness,
幸福を追究する学者にも当てはまります
00:55
and it applies to scholars thinking about happiness,
なぜなら 誰もが混乱した状態にいるからです
00:58
because it turns out we're just as messed up as anybody else is.
罠の一つは
01:02
The first of these traps
複雑さを認めることへの抵抗感にあります
01:04
is a reluctance to admit complexity.
幸福という言葉は もはや役立つ言葉ではない―
01:07
It turns out that the word "happiness"
という事が明らかになりました
01:10
is just not a useful word anymore,
この言葉を様々な事に あてはめすぎるからです
01:13
because we apply it to too many different things.
この言葉には 特定の意味合いがありますが
01:16
I think there is one particular meaning to which we might restrict it,
概して 狭い意味に
01:19
but by and large,
限定することは諦めて
01:21
this is something that we'll have to give up
幸福な状態とは何か もっと複雑な見方を
01:23
and we'll have to adopt the more complicated view
しなくてはいけないのです
01:27
of what well-being is.
二つめの罠は 体験と記憶を混同してしまうことです
01:29
The second trap is a confusion between experience and memory;
生活の中で見いだす幸福と
01:33
basically, it's between being happy in your life,
自分の人生の幸福度合い
01:36
and being happy about your life
この違いです
01:38
or happy with your life.
この二つは非常に異なる概念ですが
01:40
And those are two very different concepts,
どちらも幸福という一つの観念にまとめられがちです
01:42
and they're both lumped in the notion of happiness.
三つめは錯覚に焦点を置くこと
01:45
And the third is the focusing illusion,
幸福の状態を左右する状況を
01:48
and it's the unfortunate fact that we can't think about any circumstance
ゆがめて考えてしまうのは
01:51
that affects well-being
残念なことです
01:53
without distorting its importance.
これは まさに認知の罠です
01:55
I mean, this is a real cognitive trap.
正確に理解する方法が無いのです
01:58
There's just no way of getting it right.
例を出してみましょう
02:01
Now, I'd like to start with an example
私の講義の後におこなった質疑応答で
02:03
of somebody who had a question-and-answer session
ある方がこんな話をしました
02:08
after one of my lectures reported a story,
彼は交響曲を聴いていて
02:12
and that was a story --
その音楽に聞き惚れていたところ
02:13
He said he'd been listening to a symphony,
その曲の終わりに
02:16
and it was absolutely glorious music
耳をつんざく音が入っていました
02:19
and at the very end of the recording,
彼はかなり感情的に
02:22
there was a dreadful screeching sound.
曲が台無しになった と言いました
02:24
And then he added, really quite emotionally,
でも 台無しになったのは
02:26
it ruined the whole experience.
曲ではなく その経験の記憶です
02:30
But it hadn't.
彼は素晴らしい曲を
02:32
What it had ruined were the memories of the experience.
20分聴いていたのに
02:35
He had had the experience.
その価値がなくなったのは
02:37
He had had 20 minutes of glorious music.
台無しになった記憶が
02:39
They counted for nothing
残ったからです
02:41
because he was left with a memory;
彼に残ったのは記憶しかありません
02:44
the memory was ruined,
この話から 我々が
02:46
and the memory was all that he had gotten to keep.
自らを二つの自己として
02:49
What this is telling us, really,
考えているらしいとわかります
02:52
is that we might be thinking of ourselves and of other people
経験の自己―
02:54
in terms of two selves.
これは 現在を生き
02:56
There is an experiencing self,
現在を経験し
02:59
who lives in the present
過去にも戻れる自己です
03:01
and knows the present,
でも基本的には現在しかありません
03:03
is capable of re-living the past,
例えば 医師が “ここを触ったら痛みますか?” と
03:05
but basically it has only the present.
尋ねる相手は
03:08
It's the experiencing self that the doctor approaches --
経験の自己です
03:11
you know, when the doctor asks,
そして 記憶の自己というのがあります
03:12
"Does it hurt now when I touch you here?"
記憶の自己とは 記録を残し
03:16
And then there is a remembering self,
人生の物語を紡ぎます
03:19
and the remembering self is the one that keeps score,
医師が尋ねる質問を
03:23
and maintains the story of our life,
例に出すと
03:25
and it's the one that the doctor approaches
“最近の調子はどうですか?”
03:28
in asking the question,
“旅行はいかがでしたか?” なんて質問です
03:30
"How have you been feeling lately?"
この二つは まったく異なるもので
03:33
or "How was your trip to Albania?" or something like that.
“経験の自己”と“記憶の自己”を
03:36
Those are two very different entities,
混同してしまうのは 幸福の観念に見られる
03:39
the experiencing self and the remembering self,
混乱なのです
03:42
and getting confused between them is part of the mess
記憶の自己は
03:46
about the notion of happiness.
語り手です
03:49
Now, the remembering self
我々の記憶の基本的な反応で
03:52
is a storyteller.
すぐに動き出します
03:55
And that really starts with a basic response of our memories --
話をするとき 我々が単純に語っているのではなく
03:59
it starts immediately.
記憶が物語るのです
04:01
We don't only tell stories when we set out to tell stories.
要は経験から 引き継がれたものが
04:04
Our memory tells us stories,
話になるのです
04:07
that is, what we get to keep from our experiences
その一例を挙げてみます
04:09
is a story.
昔行われた研究で
04:11
And let me begin with one example.
大腸内視鏡検査を受けた実際の患者から得たデータです
04:16
This is an old study.
この検査は今となっては痛みを伴いませんが
04:18
Those are actual patients undergoing a painful procedure.
研究が行われた90年代には痛みを伴う検査でした
04:21
I won't go into detail. It's no longer painful these days,
患者は60秒ごとに 痛みの度合いを報告するように言われ
04:24
but it was painful when this study was run in the 1990s.
これは二人の患者と
04:28
They were asked to report on their pain every 60 seconds.
彼らの痛みを記録したものです
04:31
Here are two patients,
この二人のうち より苦しんだのは
04:34
those are their recordings.
どちらかと聞かれたら
04:36
And you are asked, "Who of them suffered more?"
明らかに それは患者Bですね
04:39
And it's a very easy question.
彼の検査時間のほうが長く
04:41
Clearly, Patient B suffered more --
患者Aが毎分感じた痛み以上に
04:43
his colonoscopy was longer,
患者Bは痛みを感じました
04:45
and every minute of pain that Patient A had,
さて 別の質問をします
04:48
Patient B had, and more.
患者自身に どれだけ苦しんだと思うかと尋ねると
04:51
But now there is another question:
驚くことに
04:54
"How much did these patients think they suffered?"
患者Bよりも
04:57
And here is a surprise.
患者Aのほうが より嫌な記憶として
04:59
The surprise is that Patient A
覚えていたのです
05:01
had a much worse memory of the colonoscopy
二人の検査の話は異なっていました
05:04
than Patient B.
なぜなら その話の一番重要な部分は 検査の終わり方なのです
05:06
The stories of the colonoscopies were different,
どちらの話も 心を打たれるような内容ではありませんが
05:09
and because a very critical part of the story is how it ends.
一方は もう片方よりも
05:15
And neither of these stories is very inspiring or great --
明らかに悲惨なものなのです
05:18
but one of them is this distinct ... (Laughter)
より嫌な記憶として語られた方は
05:22
but one of them is distinctly worse than the other.
まさに終わるときに痛みがピークを迎えていました
05:25
And the one that is worse
本当に悲惨なものです
05:27
is the one where pain was at its peak at the very end;
対象となった患者には
05:30
it's a bad story.
検査後と かなり時間が経ってから
05:32
How do we know that?
インタビューしました
05:34
Because we asked these people after their colonoscopy,
検査全体の印象を評価してもらうと
05:37
and much later, too,
患者Bよりも 患者Aが より大変だったと答えました
05:38
"How bad was the whole thing, in total?"
これは経験の自己と
05:40
And it was much worse for A than for B, in memory.
記憶の自己の間で起こる はっきりとした矛盾です
05:44
Now this is a direct conflict
経験の自己の視点で見ると
05:46
between the experiencing self and the remembering self.
患者Bのほうが大変だったのは明らかです
05:49
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
患者Aにどうすべきだったか
05:52
clearly, B had a worse time.
実際に行った臨床実験で
05:54
Now, what you could do with Patient A,
効果が確かめられているのですが
05:57
and we actually ran clinical experiments,
患者Aのチューブをそれほど動かさず
06:00
and it has been done, and it does work --
大腸内視鏡検査を長引かせます
06:02
you could actually extend the colonoscopy of Patient A
そうすることで患者は痛みを感じますが
06:07
by just keeping the tube in without jiggling it too much.
その痛みは ほんの少しで
06:10
That will cause the patient
それまでに比べて 痛みは激減します
06:13
to suffer, but just a little
これを数分やれば
06:16
and much less than before.
患者Aの経験の自己には
06:18
And if you do that for a couple of minutes,
つらい思いをさせますが
06:20
you have made the experiencing self
記憶の自己には
06:22
of Patient A worse off,
ずっとましな処置です
06:24
and you have the remembering self of Patient A
なぜなら 患者Aに与えた
06:27
a lot better off,
経験の物語は
06:29
because now you have endowed Patient A
ましなものになっているからです
06:31
with a better story
物語を形作るのは何でしょう
06:33
about his experience.
これは記憶を通して
06:36
What defines a story?
我々が思い出す話や
06:39
And that is true of the stories
我々が作り上げる話にも共通したことです
06:41
that memory delivers for us,
話を明確にするものは 変化であり
06:43
and it's also true of the stories that we make up.
決定的な瞬間であり 結末なのです
06:46
What defines a story are changes,
結末は非常に重要な役割を果たしていて
06:50
significant moments and endings.
この患者のケースでは検査の締めくくりが左右したのです
06:53
Endings are very, very important
さて 経験の自己の
06:55
and, in this case, the ending dominated.
人生には切れ目もなく
06:59
Now, the experiencing self
どんな瞬間でも 次から次へと経験をしています
07:01
lives its life continuously.
“この瞬間”の行方を問うと
07:04
It has moments of experience, one after the other.
答えは非常に簡単で
07:07
And you can ask: What happens to these moments?
永久に失われます
07:10
And the answer is really straightforward:
人生における時間の大半です
07:12
They are lost forever.
心理的現在は 約3秒だと
07:14
I mean, most of the moments of our life --
言われており
07:16
and I calculated, you know, the psychological present
その3秒は
07:19
is said to be about three seconds long;
人生で約6億回
07:21
that means that, you know,
月に約60万回もある計算になりますが
07:23
in a life there are about 600 million of them;
ほとんどが形跡を残しません
07:25
in a month, there are about 600,000 --
ほとんどが記憶の自己に
07:28
most of them don't leave a trace.
無視されてしまいます
07:32
Most of them are completely ignored
それでもどういうわけか
07:34
by the remembering self.
今この瞬間には価値があり
07:36
And yet, somehow you get the sense
そこで起きている事こそが
07:38
that they should count,
人生であると感じるのです
07:40
that what happens during these moments of experience
我々が生きる間に体験できる―
07:43
is our life.
限られたものであり
07:45
It's the finite resource that we're spending
人生をいかに過ごすかということが
07:47
while we're on this earth.
価値を持つように感じますが
07:49
And how to spend it
これは記憶の自己が
07:51
would seem to be relevant,
残す話とは違うのです
07:53
but that is not the story
記憶の自己と
07:55
that the remembering self keeps for us.
経験の自己とは
07:57
So we have the remembering self
まったく別物なのです
07:59
and the experiencing self,
一番の違いは
08:01
and they're really quite distinct.
時間の扱い方です
08:03
The biggest difference between them
経験の自己の視点で見てみましょう
08:05
is in the handling of time.
休暇に出かけるとします
08:08
From the point of view of the experiencing self,
1週目も2週目も 同じくらい楽しければ
08:11
if you have a vacation,
2週間の休暇の充足感は
08:13
and the second week is just as good as the first,
1週間の休暇の2倍です
08:16
then the two-week vacation
記憶の自己はこのようには働きません
08:19
is twice as good as the one-week vacation.
2週間の休暇は
08:22
That's not the way it works at all for the remembering self.
1週間の休暇と さほど変わらないのです
08:25
For the remembering self, a two-week vacation
なぜなら新しく加わる記憶はなく
08:27
is barely better than the one-week vacation
話自体を変化させる事がないからです
08:30
because there are no new memories added.
このように
08:32
You have not changed the story.
時間は記憶の自己と
08:35
And in this way,
経験の自己を区別する―
08:37
time is actually the critical variable
重要なポイントです
08:40
that distinguishes a remembering self
この休暇の例に 時間はあまり影響力はありません
08:43
from an experiencing self;
記憶の自己は 話を記憶し 語ること以上の
08:45
time has very little impact on the story.
働きがあります
08:49
Now, the remembering self does more
実際に 決断をするのは記憶の自己です
08:52
than remember and tell stories.
例えば 大腸内視鏡検査を2回
08:54
It is actually the one that makes decisions
二人の医師から受けた患者に
08:58
because, if you have a patient who has had, say,
どちらかの医師を選んでもらうとすると
09:00
two colonoscopies with two different surgeons
その患者は
09:03
and is deciding which of them to choose,
記憶の中で ましだった方の
09:06
then the one that chooses
医師を選びます
09:09
is the one that has the memory that is less bad,
この選択をする際
09:13
and that's the surgeon that will be chosen.
経験の自己は関わっていません
09:15
The experiencing self
通常 我々は経験から選ぶ事はせず
09:17
has no voice in this choice.
記憶から選び出します
09:20
We actually don't choose between experiences,
未来のことを考える時でさえ
09:23
we choose between memories of experiences.
経験として考える事は 普通ありません
09:26
And even when we think about the future,
先を見越した記憶として
09:29
we don't think of our future normally as experiences.
未来を見ています
09:32
We think of our future
これは記憶の自己による
09:34
as anticipated memories.
専制政治と考えてください
09:37
And basically you can look at this,
記憶の自己が決めて
09:39
you know, as a tyranny of the remembering self,
経験の自己に対して
09:42
and you can think of the remembering self
望んでいたわけでもない事も
09:44
sort of dragging the experiencing self
経験させるのです
09:46
through experiences that
私が感じるのは
09:48
the experiencing self doesn't need.
我々が休暇に出かけるのは
09:50
I have that sense that
―大半のケースに言えますが―
09:52
when we go on vacations
休暇とは
09:54
this is very frequently the case;
記憶の自己のために
09:56
that is, we go on vacations,
行くものだという気がします
09:58
to a very large extent,
これを正当化するのは少し難しいのですが
10:00
in the service of our remembering self.
我々は記憶をどれだけ思い返すでしょうか?
10:03
And this is a bit hard to justify I think.
これは 記憶の自己が
10:06
I mean, how much do we consume our memories?
支配している―
10:09
That is one of the explanations
説明の一つです
10:11
that is given for the dominance
この事を考える時
10:13
of the remembering self.
数年前の南極旅行を思い出します
10:15
And when I think about that, I think about a vacation
それは今までで最高と言える旅行で
10:17
we had in Antarctica a few years ago,
その他の旅行に比べて
10:20
which was clearly the best vacation I've ever had,
思い出す回数も多いのです
10:23
and I think of it relatively often,
その3週間の旅行を
10:25
relative to how much I think of other vacations.
過去4年のうちに思い出したのは
10:27
And I probably have consumed
25分程度でしょう
10:31
my memories of that three-week trip, I would say,
もしも 600枚の写真を
10:33
for about 25 minutes in the last four years.
見返したとしたら
10:36
Now, if I had ever opened the folder
1時間追加されるくらいです
10:39
with the 600 pictures in it,
3週間の旅行に対し
10:42
I would have spent another hour.
せいぜい1時間半の記憶なので
10:44
Now, that is three weeks,
何となく不釣り合いです
10:46
and that is at most an hour and a half.
私は平均的な人ほど
10:48
There seems to be a discrepancy.
記憶を思い返すことをしないのかもしれませんが
10:50
Now, I may be a bit extreme, you know,
もっと頻繁に記憶にアクセスしたとしても
10:52
in how little appetite I have for consuming memories,
真の疑問が残ります
10:55
but even if you do more of this,
なぜ経験と比べて
10:58
there is a genuine question:
記憶に重きを置くのでしょうか?
11:01
Why do we put so much weight on memory
ここで
11:05
relative to the weight that we put on experiences?
ある思考実験をしてみましょう
11:08
So I want you to think
皆さんの次の休暇で
11:10
about a thought experiment.
休暇の最後になって
11:13
Imagine that for your next vacation,
全ての写真が削除されるとします
11:15
you know that at the end of the vacation
皆さんは記憶喪失の薬を飲まされ
11:18
all your pictures will be destroyed,
旅行の記憶はゼロになります
11:21
and you'll get an amnesic drug
それでも その休暇を選ぶでしょうか? (笑)
11:23
so that you won't remember anything.
もし別の休暇にするならば
11:25
Now, would you choose the same vacation? (Laughter)
二つの自己が対立しているので
11:29
And if you would choose a different vacation,
その対立をどのように解決するか考える必要がありますが
11:34
there is a conflict between your two selves,
実際のところ わかりづらいんです
11:36
and you need to think about how to adjudicate that conflict,
時間を優先すれば
11:39
and it's actually not at all obvious, because
ある答えが出てくるでしょうし
11:42
if you think in terms of time,
記憶を優先すれば
11:45
then you get one answer,
別の答えが出てくるかもしれません
11:48
and if you think in terms of memories,
なぜ その休暇を選んでいるかという―
11:51
you might get another answer.
二つの自己の間にある選択肢は
11:53
Why do we pick the vacations we do
我々が直面する問題です
11:56
is a problem that confronts us
二つの自己は 二つの
11:59
with a choice between the two selves.
幸福の観念をもたらします
12:01
Now, the two selves
二つの自己に対して適用できる―
12:04
bring up two notions of happiness.
幸福の観念がひとつずつあるのです
12:06
There are really two concepts of happiness
そこで出てくる質問は “経験の自己はどれだけ幸せなのか?”
12:08
that we can apply, one per self.
そして “経験の自己の人生において
12:11
So you can ask: How happy is the experiencing self?
どれだけ幸せを感じているのか?”
12:16
And then you would ask: How happy are the moments
幸福に感じる瞬間とは
12:18
in the experiencing self's life?
非常に複雑なプロセスです
12:21
And they're all -- happiness for moments
測定できる感情とは何でしょうか?
12:23
is a fairly complicated process.
経験の自己が感じる幸福と
12:25
What are the emotions that can be measured?
時間の関係性は
12:28
And, by the way, now we are capable
わかっていただけたと思います
12:30
of getting a pretty good idea
もし 記憶の自己の幸福を尋ねるとしたら
12:32
of the happiness of the experiencing self over time.
それはまた別物です
12:38
If you ask for the happiness of the remembering self,
これは ある人がどれだけ幸せに暮らしているか ということではなく
12:41
it's a completely different thing.
その人が自分の人生を考えたときに
12:43
This is not about how happily a person lives.
どれだけ満足しているか ということです
12:46
It is about how satisfied or pleased the person is
かなり違う観念ですね
12:49
when that person thinks about her life.
この観念の違いがわからなければ
12:53
Very different notion.
幸福の研究はうまくいきません
12:55
Anyone who doesn't distinguish those notions
私は まさにこんな感じに
12:58
is going to mess up the study of happiness,
長い間 幸福の研究がうまくいかずにいる―
13:00
and I belong to a crowd of students of well-being,
学者の1人です
13:03
who've been messing up the study of happiness for a long time
経験の自己の幸福と
13:07
in precisely this way.
記憶の自己の満足感が
13:09
The distinction between the
違うという事実は
13:11
happiness of the experiencing self
近年 気づかれるようになってきました
13:13
and the satisfaction of the remembering self
現在では 二つを隔てて測る努力もされています
13:16
has been recognized in recent years,
ギャラップは 50万人を対象に
13:18
and there are now efforts to measure the two separately.
世界中で世論調査を行い
13:21
The Gallup Organization has a world poll
自分の人生と経験を
13:24
where more than half a million people
どう思っているか
13:26
have been asked questions
アンケートを行いました
13:28
about what they think of their life
そして それに沿った形で 他の調査も進んできました
13:30
and about their experiences,
近年では 二つの自己に絡んだ幸福に関して
13:32
and there have been other efforts along those lines.
解明し始めたところです
13:35
So in recent years, we have begun to learn
我々が学んだ主なことは
13:38
about the happiness of the two selves.
二つがまったく別物だということです
13:41
And the main lesson I think that we have learned
ある人の人生の満足度を測る事はできても
13:44
is they are really different.
そこから その人が
13:46
You can know how satisfied somebody is with their life,
どれだけ人生を幸せに過ごしているかはわかりません
13:51
and that really doesn't teach you much
反対のことも言えます
13:53
about how happily they're living their life,
その相関性を示してみます
13:56
and vice versa.
相関性は約0.5です
13:58
Just to give you a sense of the correlation,
例えば 父の身長が180cmだと
14:00
the correlation is about .5.
ある人が言ったとしても
14:02
What that means is if you met somebody,
彼自身の身長に関しては何もわかりませんね
14:05
and you were told, "Oh his father is six feet tall,"
多少の目安にはなりますが
14:09
how much would you know about his height?
はっきりしたことはわかりません
14:11
Well, you would know something about his height,
それくらい不確かだと思ってください
14:13
but there's a lot of uncertainty.
ある人が 自分の人生は10点満点中8点だと言ったとしても
14:15
You have that much uncertainty.
どれだけ経験の自己が
14:17
If I tell you that somebody ranked their life eight on a scale of ten,
幸せなのか
14:21
you have a lot of uncertainty
推しはかることはできません
14:23
about how happy they are
ですから相関関係は低いのです
14:25
with their experiencing self.
幸福に対する満足度を支配する要素は
14:27
So the correlation is low.
わかっています
14:29
We know something about what controls
お金は大切ですし
14:32
satisfaction of the happiness self.
目標も大切
14:34
We know that money is very important,
幸福とは主に 好きな人と共に
14:36
goals are very important.
満足することであり
14:38
We know that happiness is mainly
好きな人と時間を過ごすことです
14:42
being satisfied with people that we like,
他にも考えられますが これが支配的です
14:45
spending time with people that we like.
ですから 二つの自己の幸福度を強めたい場合は
14:48
There are other pleasures, but this is dominant.
まったく異なる事柄を
14:50
So if you want to maximize the happiness of the two selves,
する事になるでしょう
14:53
you are going to end up
要は
14:55
doing very different things.
幸福は心身ともに健全でいることと
14:57
The bottom line of what I've said here
同じ事だと考えるべきではないのです
14:59
is that we really should not think of happiness
二つはまったく違った観念です
15:03
as a substitute for well-being.
ここで手短に説明しますが
15:05
It is a completely different notion.
幸福を考える時 これほど複雑化する もう1つの理由は
15:08
Now, very quickly,
人生に関して考えるときと 実際に生きている日々とでは
15:11
another reason we cannot think straight about happiness
我々は同じことに注目していないということです
15:15
is that we do not attend to the same things
ですから カリフォルニアの人たちに幸せの度合いを尋ねても
15:22
when we think about life, and we actually live.
正しい答えは得られません
15:25
So, if you ask the simple question of how happy people are in California,
その質問を他の人にすると
15:30
you are not going to get to the correct answer.
カリフォルニアのほうが幸せなはずだと思うのです
15:33
When you ask that question,
例えばオハイオの人なんかね
15:35
you think people must be happier in California
(笑)
15:37
if, say, you live in Ohio.
ここで起きるのは
15:39
(Laughter)
カリフォルニアで暮らす事を考える時
15:41
And what happens is
カリフォルニアと別の場所を
15:44
when you think about living in California,
対比させて考える ということです
15:48
you are thinking of the contrast
例えば 気候の違いです
15:50
between California and other places,
実は 気候というのは
15:53
and that contrast, say, is in climate.
経験の自己には重要ではなく
15:55
Well, it turns out that climate
人がどれだけ幸せなのかを決める―
15:57
is not very important to the experiencing self
記憶の自己にも それほど重要ではありません
16:00
and it's not even very important to the reflective self
しかし 記憶の自己がつかさどっているので
16:03
that decides how happy people are.
中には カリフォルニアへ
16:06
But now, because the reflective self is in charge,
引っ越す人が出るのです
16:10
you may end up -- some people may end up
幸せになるだろうと期待してカリフォルニアへ
16:12
moving to California.
移り住む人たちに何が起こるのか 追跡するのは興味深いんです
16:14
And it's sort of interesting to trace what is going to happen
経験の自己が
16:17
to people who move to California in the hope of getting happier.
一層幸せになる事はありません
16:20
Well, their experiencing self
本当です
16:22
is not going to get happier.
でも確実に言えるのは 彼らがもっと幸せだと思うようになる事です
16:24
We know that.
なぜなら 彼らはオハイオの天気が
16:27
But one thing will happen: They will think they are happier,
どれだけ悪かったか思い出し
16:30
because, when they think about it,
正しい決断をしたと感じるからです
16:34
they'll be reminded of how horrible the weather was in Ohio,
心身ともに健全でいることを
16:38
and they will feel they made the right decision.
事実どおりに考えるのは非常に難しいのです
16:41
It is very difficult
どれだけ難しいことなのか
16:43
to think straight about well-being,
わかってもらえたでしょうか
16:45
and I hope I have given you a sense
ありがとう
16:48
of how difficult it is.
(拍手)
16:50
Thank you.
ありがとう 質問があります
16:52
(Applause)
どうもありがとう
16:55
Chris Anderson: Thank you. I've got a question for you.
数週間前に電話でお話しした時
16:59
Thank you so much.
世論調査で浮かび上がった非常に興味深い
17:01
Now, when we were on the phone a few weeks ago,
結果を教えてくれましたね
17:05
you mentioned to me that there was quite an interesting result
時間があるので
17:08
came out of that Gallup survey.
お話してくれませんか
17:10
Is that something you can share
もちろんです
17:12
since you do have a few moments left now?
世論調査で明らかになった最も興味深いことは
17:14
Daniel Kahneman: Sure.
予想もしていなかった数値が浮かび上がったことです
17:16
I think the most interesting result that we found in the Gallup survey
経験の自己から見る幸福に関し
17:19
is a number, which we absolutely did not expect to find.
分かったのは
17:22
We found that with respect to the happiness
我々の感情は 収入と密接に
17:24
of the experiencing self.
関わっていることです
17:27
When we looked at how feelings,
ここで明らかになったのは
17:32
vary with income.
アメリカ人にとって 年収6万ドル以下は
17:34
And it turns out that, below an income
60万人から聞き出した調査なので
17:37
of 60,000 dollars a year, for Americans --
典型的なサンプルですが
17:40
and that's a very large sample of Americans, like 600,000,
年収60万ドル以下だと…
17:43
so it's a large representative sample --
6万ドルですね?
17:45
below an income of 600,000 dollars a year...
そうそう 6万ドル
17:47
CA: 60,000.
(笑)
17:49
DK: 60,000.
年収6万ドル以下だと 惨めさを感じ
17:51
(Laughter)
金額が下がるほど その度合いは増します
17:53
60,000 dollars a year, people are unhappy,
6万ドル以上の場合は変化はありません
17:57
and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get.
そこまで平らな線が出るのも珍しいのです
18:00
Above that, we get an absolutely flat line.
明らかに ここで言える事は
18:03
I mean I've rarely seen lines so flat.
経験的な幸福をお金で買うことはできませんが
18:06
Clearly, what is happening is
お金がないのと 惨めな思いをするということです
18:08
money does not buy you experiential happiness,
その惨めさをはっきりと
18:11
but lack of money certainly buys you misery,
測ることもできます
18:14
and we can measure that misery
記憶の自己からみると
18:16
very, very clearly.
違う内容になります
18:18
In terms of the other self, the remembering self,
お金を儲けるほど 満足感は増す
18:21
you get a different story.
これに感情は関与しません
18:23
The more money you earn, the more satisfied you are.
でもアメリカ人が頑張るのも
18:26
That does not hold for emotions.
生活 自由 幸福の追求のためですよね?
18:28
CA: But Danny, the whole American endeavor is about
もし 皆がその調査結果を真剣に受け止めたら
18:31
life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness.
私たちが信じる全てを
18:34
If people took seriously that finding,
180度転換するような感じがします
18:38
I mean, it seems to turn upside down
例えば 税制に関してとか…
18:41
everything we believe about, like for example,
政治家が この調査結果を真剣に受け止めて
18:43
taxation policy and so forth.
この基盤に基づいて公共政策を動かす事は
18:45
Is there any chance that politicians, that the country generally,
今後あるでしょうか?
18:48
would take a finding like that seriously
公共政策の中で
18:51
and run public policy based on it?
幸福の研究も 位置づけられていると思います
18:53
DK: You know I think that there is recognition
アメリカでの認知度向上には
18:55
of the role of happiness research in public policy.
間違いなく 時間がかかるでしょう
18:58
The recognition is going to be slow in the United States,
イギリスや他国では
19:00
no question about that,
認知度が高まっていて
19:02
but in the U.K., it is happening,
公共政策を考える際
19:04
and in other countries it is happening.
幸福を視野に入れる必要性が
19:06
People are recognizing that they ought
考慮されています
19:09
to be thinking of happiness
時間はかかりますし
19:11
when they think of public policy.
幸福の経験の研究や
19:13
It's going to take a while,
生活の評価の研究に関して
19:15
and people are going to debate
議論がなされるでしょう
19:18
whether they want to study experience happiness,
その議論も近々必要ですね
19:20
or whether they want to study life evaluation,
幸福の高め方は
19:22
so we need to have that debate fairly soon.
その人の考え方によって異なりますし
19:25
How to enhance happiness
記憶の自己や経験の自己のどちらを
19:27
goes very different ways depending on how you think,
考えるかによっても異なります
19:30
and whether you think of the remembering self
これは今後 政策に影響するでしょう
19:32
or you think of the experiencing self.
アメリカでは 全国民の経験的な幸福を
19:34
This is going to influence policy, I think, in years to come.
測る努力がされています
19:37
In the United States, efforts are being made
今後10~20年以内に これは国家統計の
19:40
to measure the experience happiness of the population.
一部になると思います
19:43
This is going to be, I think, within the next decade or two,
この問題は 今後数年の間
19:46
part of national statistics.
一番興味深い政策論議に
19:48
CA: Well, it seems to me that this issue will -- or at least should be --
なりそうですね
19:52
the most interesting policy discussion to track
行動経済学を生み出してくれて ありがとう
19:54
over the next few years.
どうもありがとう
19:56
Thank you so much for inventing behavioral economics.
19:58
Thank you, Danny Kahneman.
Translator:Takako Sato
Reviewer:Natsuhiko Mizutani

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Daniel Kahneman - Behavioral economics founder
Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk.

Why you should listen

Daniel Kahneman is an eminence grise for the Freakonomics crowd. In the mid-1970s, with his collaborator Amos Tversky, he was among the first academics to pick apart exactly why we make "wrong" decisions. In their 1979 paper on prospect theory, Kahneman and Tversky examined a simple problem of economic risk. And rather than stating the optimal, rational answer, as an economist of the time might have, they quantified how most real people, consistently, make a less-rational choice. Their work treated economics not as a perfect or self-correcting machine, but as a system prey to quirks of human perception. The field of behavioral economics was born.

Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Memorial prize in 2002 for his work with Tversky, who died before the award was bestowed. In a lovely passage in his Nobel biography, Kahneman looks back on his deep collaboration with Tversky and calls for a new form of academic cooperation, marked not by turf battles but by "adversarial collaboration," a good-faith effort by unlike minds to conduct joint research, critiquing each other in the service of an ideal of truth to which both can contribute.

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