ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Dan Gilbert: A psicologia do nosso "eu" futuro

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Os seres humanos são obras em progresso que equivocadamente pensam que estão prontos." Dan Gilbert compartilha uma pesquisa recente sobre um fenômeno que ele chama de "ilusão do fim da história", onde nós, de alguma forma, imaginamos que a pessoa que somos agora é a pessoa que seremos até o fim da vida. Dica: não é bem assim.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At every stage of our lives
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Em todas as fases de nossas vidas
00:14
we make decisions that will profoundly influence
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tomamos decisões que
influenciarão profundamente
as vidas das pessoas que nos tornaremos,
00:18
the lives of the people we're going to become,
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00:20
and then when we become those people,
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e, quando nos tornamos essas pessoas,
00:21
we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
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nem sempre nos empolgamos
com as decisões que tomamos.
00:24
So young people pay good money
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Pessoas jovens pagam caro
00:26
to get tattoos removed that teenagers
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para remover tatuagens que os adolescentes
00:29
paid good money to get.
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pagaram caro para fazer.
00:30
Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people
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Pessoas de meia idade
correm para divorciarem-se
00:33
who young adults rushed to marry.
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daqueles que os jovens adultos
correram para casar.
00:35
Older adults work hard to lose
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Adultos mais velhos
se esforçam para perder
00:38
what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.
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o que adultos de meia idade
se esforçaram para ganhar.
00:41
On and on and on.
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É sempre a mesma coisa.
00:42
The question is, as a psychologist,
that fascinates me is,
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Como psicólogo, a pergunta
que me fascina é:
00:45
why do we make decisions
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por que tomamos decisões
00:47
that our future selves so often regret?
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das quais nos arrependeremos no futuro?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons --
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Bem, eu acho que uma das razões --
vou tentar convencê-los hoje --
00:52
I'll try to convince you today —
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00:54
is that we have a fundamental misconception
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é que temos uma ideia
fundamentalmente errada
00:56
about the power of time.
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a respeito do poder do tempo.
00:59
Every one of you knows that the rate of change
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Todos vocês sabem que a taxa de mudança
01:01
slows over the human lifespan,
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desacelera ao longo da vida humana,
01:03
that your children seem to change by the minute
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que nossos filhos parecem
mudar a cada minuto,
01:06
but your parents seem to change by the year.
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mas nossos pais parecem mudar a cada ano.
01:09
But what is the name of this magical point in life
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Mas qual é o nome desse
ponto mágico na vida,
01:12
where change suddenly goes
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onde a mudança de repente passa
01:14
from a gallop to a crawl?
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de um galope para um rastejo?
01:16
Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?
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Seria a adolescência? A meia idade?
01:19
Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,
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A terceira idade?
Ao que parece, a resposta
01:22
for most people, is now,
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para a maioria das pessoas é "agora",
01:24
wherever now happens to be.
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onde quer que esteja o "agora".
01:27
What I want to convince you today
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O que eu quero convencê-los hoje
01:29
is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,
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é de que todos nós estamos
andando por aí com uma ilusão,
01:32
an illusion that history, our personal history,
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uma ilusão de que a história,
nossa história pessoal,
01:35
has just come to an end,
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acabou de chegar ao fim,
01:37
that we have just recently become
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de que recentemente nos tornamos
01:39
the people that we were always meant to be
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a pessoa que estávamos destinados a ser,
01:42
and will be for the rest of our lives.
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e seremos pelo resto de nossas vidas.
Vou lhes mostrar alguns dados
para apoiar essa afirmação.
01:44
Let me give you some data to back up that claim.
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01:46
So here's a study of change in people's
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Eis um estudo de mudanças no valor pessoal
01:49
personal values over time.
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das pessoas ao longo do tempo.
01:51
Here's three values.
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Aqui estão três valores.
01:53
Everybody here holds all of them,
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Todos aqui possuem todos eles,
01:54
but you probably know that as you grow,
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mas vocês devem saber
que, conforme você cresce,
01:56
as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
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à medida que envelhece,
o equilíbrio destes valores muda.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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Então como acontece?
02:02
Well, we asked thousands of people.
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Bem, nós perguntamos
a milhares de pessoas.
02:04
We asked half of them to predict for us
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Pedimos à metade delas que previssem
02:05
how much their values would
change in the next 10 years,
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o quanto seus valores mudariam
nos próximos 10 anos,
e aos outros que nos dissessem
02:08
and the others to tell us
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02:10
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years.
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o quanto seus valores tinham
mudado nos últimos 10 anos.
02:13
And this enabled us to do a really
interesting kind of analysis,
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E isso nos permitiu fazer um
tipo de análise bem interessante,
02:16
because it allowed us to compare the predictions
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porque nos permitiu comparar as previsões
02:19
of people, say, 18 years old,
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de pessoas, digamos, de 18 anos
02:21
to the reports of people who were 28,
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com os relatos de pessoas de 28,
02:23
and to do that kind of analysis
throughout the lifespan.
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e fazer esse tipo de análise
para toda a vida.
02:25
Here's what we found.
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Eis o que descobrimos.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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Primeiro, você está certo,
02:28
change does slow down as we age,
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a mudança realmente desacelera
à medida que envelhecemos,
02:31
but second, you're wrong,
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mas em segundo lugar você está errado,
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.
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porque ela não desacelera
nem de perto o quanto pensamos.
02:36
At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,
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Em todas as idades, de 18 a 68
em nosso conjunto de dados,
02:40
people vastly underestimated how much change
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as pessoas subestimaram muito
o quanto de mudança
02:44
they would experience over the next 10 years.
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elas sofreriam
durante os próximos 10 anos.
02:47
We call this the "end of history" illusion.
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Nós chamamos isso
de ilusão do "fim da história".
02:50
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,
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Para lhes dar uma ideia
da magnitude desse efeito,
02:52
you can connect these two lines,
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podemos conectar essas duas linhas
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds
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e o que vemos aqui é que jovens de 18 anos
02:56
anticipate changing only as much
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antecipam a mudança somente tanto quanto
02:58
as 50-year-olds actually do.
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pessoas de 50 anos o fazem.
03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.
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E não são só os valores.
São todos os tipos de coisas.
03:05
For example, personality.
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Por exemplo, personalidade.
03:07
Many of you know that psychologists now claim
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Muitos de vocês sabem
que agora os psicólogos dizem
03:09
that there are five fundamental
dimensions of personality:
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que há 5 dimensões
fundamentais de personalidade:
03:13
neuroticism, openness to experience,
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neuroticismo, abertura a experiência,
03:15
agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
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amabilidade, extroversão e consciência.
De novo, perguntamos às pessoas
o quanto elas esperavam
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected
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03:21
to change over the next 10 years,
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mudar nos próximos 10 anos,
03:23
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years,
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e também o quanto tinham
mudado nos últimos 10 anos,
03:26
and what we found,
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e o que descobrimos...
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeing this diagram over and over,
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vocês vão se acostumar
com este diagrama,
03:30
because once again the rate of change
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porque novamente, a taxa de mudança
03:32
does slow as we age,
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desacelera à medida que envelhecemos.
03:33
but at every age, people underestimate
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Mas em todas as idades,
as pessoas subestimam
03:37
how much their personalities will change
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o quanto sua personalidade vai mudar
03:39
in the next decade.
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na próxima década.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral things
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E não são somente coisas efêmeras
03:44
like values and personality.
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como valores e personalidade.
03:45
You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,
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Podemos perguntar sobre
seus gostos e desgostos,
03:48
their basic preferences.
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suas preferências básicas.
03:50
For example, name your best friend,
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Por exemplo, quem é seu melhor amigo,
03:53
your favorite kind of vacation,
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seu tipo favorito de férias,
03:54
what's your favorite hobby,
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seu hobby favorito,
03:56
what's your favorite kind of music.
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seu tipo favorito de música.
As pessoas conseguem dizer isso.
03:58
People can name these things.
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03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
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Pedimos à metade delas para nos dizer:
04:01
"Do you think that that will
change over the next 10 years?"
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"Você acha que isso vai mudar
nos próximos 10 anos?"
e à outra metade para nos dizer:
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
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04:06
"Did that change over the last 10 years?"
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"Isso mudou nos últimos 10 anos?"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,
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E o que descobrimos, bem,
já vimos isso duas vezes
04:11
and here it is again:
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e aqui vai de novo:
04:13
people predict that the friend they have now
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as pessoas preveem
que o amigo que têm agora
04:16
is the friend they'll have in 10 years,
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é o amigo que terão em 10 anos,
04:18
the vacation they most enjoy now is the one
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as férias de que mais gostam agora
é a mesma de que gostarão em 10 anos,
04:20
they'll enjoy in 10 years,
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04:21
and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,
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e ainda assim, todas as pessoas
10 anos mais velhas dizem:
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
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"Eh, sabe, isso mudou mesmo."
Qual é a importância disso?
04:27
Does any of this matter?
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04:28
Is this just a form of mis-prediction
that doesn't have consequences?
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Será apenas um erro de previsão
que não tem consequências?
04:31
No, it matters quite a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
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Não, é muito importante,
e vou lhes dar um exemplo do motivo.
04:34
It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
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Isso influencia nossa tomada
de decisão, de forma importante.
04:38
Bring to mind right now for yourself
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Pensem agora
04:39
your favorite musician today
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no seu músico favorito hoje,
04:42
and your favorite musician 10 years ago.
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e seu músico favorito 10 anos atrás.
04:44
I put mine up on the screen to help you along.
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Eu coloquei os meus na tela
para ajudá-los.
04:46
Now we asked people
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Então pedimos às pessoas
04:48
to predict for us, to tell us
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que predissessem, que nos dissessem
04:50
how much money they would pay right now
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quanto elas pagariam agora
04:53
to see their current favorite musician
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para ver seu músico favorito atual
04:55
perform in concert 10 years from now,
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em um show daqui a 10 anos
e, em média, elas
disseram que pagariam
04:58
and on average, people said they would pay
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05:00
129 dollars for that ticket.
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129 dólares pelo ingresso.
05:03
And yet, when we asked them
how much they would pay
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E quando perguntamos
quanto elas pagariam
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite
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para ver num show, hoje, a pessoa
05:08
10 years ago perform today,
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que era seu favorito 10 anos atrás,
05:10
they say only 80 dollars.
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elas disseram apenas 80 dólares.
05:12
Now, in a perfectly rational world,
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Num mundo perfeitamente racional
05:14
these should be the same number,
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esses números deveriam ser iguais,
05:16
but we overpay for the opportunity
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mas pagamos mais pela oportunidade
05:18
to indulge our current preferences
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de satisfazer nossas preferências atuais
05:20
because we overestimate their stability.
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porque superestimamos sua estabilidade.
05:24
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,
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Por que isso acontece? Não temos certeza,
05:26
but it probably has to do
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mas provavelmente tem a ver
05:28
with the ease of remembering
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com a facilidade de lembrar
05:30
versus the difficulty of imagining.
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contra a dificuldade de imaginar.
A maioria de nós consegue lembrar
quem éramos há 10 anos,
05:32
Most of us can remember
who we were 10 years ago,
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05:35
but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,
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mas temos dificuldade
em imaginar quem seremos,
05:38
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine,
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então pensamos erroneamente que
porque é difícil de imaginar,
05:41
it's not likely to happen.
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é improvável que aconteça.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"
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Desculpem, quando as pessoas dizem:
"Não consigo imaginar",
05:46
they're usually talking about
their own lack of imagination,
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normalmente estão falando
de sua própria falta de imaginação,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
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e não da improbabilidade
05:50
of the event that they're describing.
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do evento que estão descrevendo.
05:53
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.
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A questão é que o tempo
é uma força poderosa.
05:57
It transforms our preferences.
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Ele transforma nossas preferências
05:59
It reshapes our values.
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reformula nossos valores,
altera nossas personalidades.
06:01
It alters our personalities.
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06:02
We seem to appreciate this fact,
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Parece que apreciamos isso,
06:05
but only in retrospect.
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mas somente em retrospecto.
06:06
Only when we look backwards do we realize
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Só quando olhamos para trás, percebemos
06:09
how much change happens in a decade.
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quanta mudança ocorre em uma década.
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
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É como se, para a maioria de nós,
06:14
the present is a magic time.
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o presente fosse um tempo mágico.
06:16
It's a watershed on the timeline.
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É um divisor de águas na linha do tempo.
06:18
It's the moment at which we finally
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É o momento em que finalmente
06:20
become ourselves.
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tornamo-nos nós mesmos.
06:23
Human beings are works in progress
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Os seres humanos são obras em progresso,
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
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que equivocadamente
pensam que estão prontos.
06:28
The person you are right now
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A pessoa que você é agora
06:30
is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary
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é tão transiente,
tão fugaz e tão temporária
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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quanto todas as pessoas que você já foi.
06:36
The one constant in our life is change.
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A única constante
em nossa vida é a mudança.
06:40
Thank you.
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Obrigado.
(Aplausos)
06:42
(Applause)
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Translated by Gustavo Rocha
Reviewed by Andrea Mussap

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com