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Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade? We're winning the war against child mortality
Hans Rosling: Najlepšie správy desaťročia?
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Hans Rosling ponúka nový pohľad na údaje OSN z posledných desiatich rokov a zameria sa na prekvapujúco dobré správy, ktoré ostali nepovšimnuté. Popritom odhaľuje podstatu chybného prístupu k štatistickým údajom, ktorý tieto skvelé správy skrýva.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
We are here today
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Stretli sme sa tu,
00:17
because [the] United Nations
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pretože Organizácia spojených národov
00:19
have defined goals
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definovala ciele
00:21
for the progress of countries.
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pre pokrok krajín.
00:23
They're called Millennium Development Goals.
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Nazývajú sa Rozvojové ciele tisícročia.
00:26
And the reason I really like these goals
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A dôvod, prečo sa mi tieto ciele páčia,
00:29
is that there are eight of them.
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je, že ich je osem.
00:32
And by specifying eight different goals,
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A špecifikovaním ôsmich rozličných cieľov
00:34
the United Nations has said
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OSN jasne povedala,
00:36
that there are so many things needed
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že na to, aby dala krajina ľuďom dobrý život,
00:38
to change in a country
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je potrebné zmeniť
00:40
in order to get the good life for people.
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mnoho vecí.
00:42
Look here -- you have to end poverty,
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Musíte skoncovať s chudobou,
00:44
education, gender,
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poradiť si so vzdelaním, rovnosťou pohlaví,
00:46
child and maternal health,
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zdravím detí a matiek,
00:48
control infections, protect the environment
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kontrolovať infekcie, ochraňovať životné prostredie
00:51
and get the good global links between nations
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a vytvoriť dobré celosvetové vzťahy medzi krajinami
00:53
in every aspect
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v každej oblasti
00:55
from aid to trade.
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od humanitárnej pomoci až po obchod.
00:58
There's a second reason I like these development goals,
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Druhý dôvod, prečo sa mi páčia tieto rozvojové ciele, je,
01:01
and that is because each and every one is measured.
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že každý jeden z nich je zmeraný.
01:04
Take child mortality;
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Vezmite si detstkú úmrtnosť.
01:07
the aim here is to reduce child mortality
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Cieľom je znížiť detstkú úmrtnosť
01:09
by two-thirds,
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o dve tretiny
01:11
from 1990 to 2015.
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od roku 1990 do roku 2050.
01:14
That's a four percent reduction per year --
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To je štvorpercentné zníženie za rok.
01:18
and this, with measuring.
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A to sa dá zmerať.
01:20
That's what makes the difference
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Toto je rozdiel
01:22
between political talking like this
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medzi politickými rečami
01:24
and really going for the important thing,
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a skutočným odhodlaním bojovať za správnu vec,
01:26
a better life for people.
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za lepší život pre ľudí.
01:29
And what I'm so happy about with this
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A som šťastný, pretože
01:31
is that we have already documented
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podľa dokumentov
01:33
that there are many countries
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mnohé krajiny
01:35
in Asia, in the Middle East,
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v Ázii, na Strednom Východe,
01:37
in Latin America and East Europe
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v Latinskej Amerike a vo východnej Európe
01:40
that [are] reducing with this rate.
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znižujú [detskú úmrtnosť] týmto tempom.
01:42
And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,
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Brazília klesá s piatimi percentami za rok
01:45
and Turkey with seven percent per year.
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a Turecko so siedmimi percentami za rok.
01:47
So there's good news.
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A to sú dobré správy.
01:49
But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.
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Ale potom mi ľudia hovoria, "V Afrike nie je žiadny pokrok.
01:52
And there's not even statistics on Africa
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Z Afriky nedostávame ani žiadne štatistické údaje,
01:54
to know what is happening."
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aby sme vedeli, čo sa tam deje."
01:56
I'll prove them wrong on both points.
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Dokážem, že sa v obidvoch bodoch mýlia.
01:59
Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.
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Poďte so mnou do úžasného sveta štatistiky.
02:02
I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,
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Privediem vás ku stránke ChildMortality.org,
02:05
where you can take deaths in children
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kde môžete nájsť detské úmrtia
02:07
below five years of age for all countries --
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pod hranicou piatich rokoch pre všetky krajiny.
02:10
it's done by U.N. specialists.
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Štatistiku urobili špecialisti OSN.
02:12
And I will take Kenya as an example.
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Ako príklad vezmem Keňu.
02:14
Here you see the data.
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Tu vidíte údaje.
02:16
Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.
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Nepanikárte. Len nezačnite panikáriť. Pomôžem vám s tým.
02:19
It looks nasty, like in college
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Toto vyzerá hrozne, ako na strednej,
02:21
when you didn't like statistics.
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keď ste neznášali štatistiku.
02:23
But first thing, when you see dots like this,
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Ale ako prvú vec, keď vidíte bodky ako tieto,
02:25
you have to ask yourself:
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musíte sa spýtať:
02:27
from where do the data come?
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Odkiaľ pochádzajú tieto údaje?
02:29
What is the origin of the data?
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Aký je pôvod týchto údajov?
02:31
Is it so that in Kenya,
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Funguje to tak, že v Keni
02:33
there are doctors and other specialists
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sú doktori a iní špecialisti,
02:35
who write the death certificate at the death of the child
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ktorí vypíšu úmrtný list dieťaťa
02:37
and it's sent to the statistical office?
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a ten je odoslaný do štatistického centra?
02:39
No -- low-income countries like Kenya
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Nie. Krajiny s nízkym príjmom, ako Keňa,
02:42
still don't have that level of organization.
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stále nemajú takú úroveň organizácie.
02:45
It exists, but it's not complete
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Existuje, ale nie je kompletná,
02:47
because so many deaths occur in the home
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pretože mnoho detí zomrie doma
02:50
with the family,
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s rodinou,
02:52
and it's not registered.
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a to sa nezaznamená.
02:54
What we rely on is not an incomplete system.
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My sa nespoliehame na neúplný systém.
02:56
We have interviews, we have surveys.
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Robíme rozhovory, máme prieskumy.
02:59
And this is highly professional
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Tieto vysoko kvalifikované
03:01
female interviewers
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ženy
03:03
who sit down for one hour with a woman
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si sadnú ku žene na jednu hodinu
03:05
and ask her about [her] birth history.
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a pýtajú sa jej na pôrody.
03:07
How many children did you have?
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Koľko detí mala?
03:09
Are they alive?
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Sú nažive?
03:11
If they died, at what age and what year?
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Ak zomreli, v akom veku a kedy?
03:14
And then this is done in a representative sample
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A potom sa urobí reprezentatívna vzorka
03:16
of thousands of women in the country
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tisícok žien z krajiny
03:19
and put together in what used to be called
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a poskladá sa dokopy do niečoho, čo sa zvyklo nazývať
03:21
a demographic health survey report.
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správa z prieskumu o demografickom zdraví.
03:24
But these surveys are costly,
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Ale tieto prieskumy sú nákladné,
03:26
so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.
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a tak sa môžu robiť len každých tri až päť rokov.
03:29
But they have good quality.
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Ale sú kvalitné.
03:31
So this is a limitation.
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Takže toto je ohraničenie.
03:33
And all these colored lines here are results;
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A tieto farebné čiary sú výsledky,
03:36
each color is one survey.
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každá farba je jeden prieskum.
03:38
But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,
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Na dnes je to príliš komplikované, a tak vám to zjednoduším,
03:41
and I give you one average point for each survey.
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a dám vám jeden priemerný bod za každý prieskum.
03:44
This was 1977, 1988,
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Toto bol rok 1977, 1988,
03:47
1992, '97
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1992, 1997
03:49
and 2002.
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a 2002.
03:52
And when the experts in the U.N.
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A keď experti z OSN
03:54
have got these surveys in place in their database,
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dostali tieto prieskumy do svojej databázy,
03:57
then they use advanced mathematical formulas
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použili náročné matematické vzorce
04:00
to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.
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a vypočítali krivku trendu a tá krivka vyzerá takto.
04:03
See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.
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Pozrite sa. Toto je najlepšie, čo z toho vedia dostať.
04:06
But watch out --
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Ale dávajte pozor.
04:08
they continue the line
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Potiahli tú krivku ďalej
04:10
beyond the last point
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za posledný bod
04:12
out into nothing.
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týmto smerom.
04:14
And they estimated that in 2008,
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Odhadli, že v roku 2008
04:17
Kenya had per child mortality of 128.
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mala Keňa detskú úmrtnosť 128 z 1000.
04:20
And I was sad,
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A bolo mi z toho smutno,
04:22
because we could see
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pretože sme v Keni videli
04:24
this reversal in Kenya
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tento krok naspäť
04:26
with an increased child mortality in the 90s.
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na zvýšenú detskú úmrtnosť z 90-tych rokov.
04:29
It was so tragic.
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Bola to tragédia.
04:31
But in June, I got a mail in my inbox
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Ale v júni mi prišiel mail
04:34
from Demographic Health Surveys,
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z Prieskumov demografického zdravia
04:36
and it showed good news from Kenya.
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a boli v ňom dobré správy z Kene.
04:38
I was so happy.
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Bol som taký šťastný.
04:40
This was the estimate of the new survey.
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Toto je odhad z nového prieskumu.
04:43
Then it just took another three months
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Potom to trvalo už len tri mesiace,
04:45
for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,
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kým to OSN dostalo do svojho servera
04:47
and on Friday we got the new trend line --
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a v piatok sme dostali novú krivku trendu.
04:50
it was down here.
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Bola tu dole.
04:52
Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?
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Nie je to pekné? No nie je to pekné?
04:54
I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,
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V piatok som sedel za svojím počítačom
04:57
and I saw the death rate fall
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a videl som, ako úmrtnosť klesla
04:59
from 128 to 84 just that morning.
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zo 128 na 84.
05:02
So we celebrated.
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A tak sme oslavovali.
05:04
But now, when you have this trend line,
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Ale teraz, keď máme túto novú krivku trendu,
05:06
how do we measure progress?
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ako odmeráme pokrok?
05:08
I'm going into some details here,
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Tu ukážem nejaké detaily,
05:10
because [the] U.N. do it like this.
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pretože OSN to robí takto.
05:12
They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.
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Začali v roku 1990, merania sú do roku 2009.
05:15
They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."
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Povedali "0.9 percenta, žiadne zlepšenie."
05:18
That's unfair.
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To nie je fér.
05:20
As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.
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Ako profesor, myslím, že mám právo vidieť to inak.
05:23
I would say, at least do this --
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Povedal by som, urobme aspoň toto.
05:25
10 years is enough to follow the trend.
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Desať rokov je dosť, keď sledujete trend.
05:27
It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.
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To sú dva prieskumy a môžete vidieť, čo sa tam deje.
05:30
They have 2.4 percent.
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Majú 2.4 percenta.
05:32
Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,
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Ak by som bol ministrom zdravotníctva Kene,
05:34
I may have joined these two points.
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spojil by som tieto dva body.
05:37
So what I'm telling you
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Takže hovorím vám,
05:39
is that we know the child mortality.
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že poznáme detskú úmrtnosť.
05:41
We have a decent trend.
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Máme slušný trend.
05:43
It's coming into some tricky things then
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Keď sa merajú Rozvojové ciele tisícročia,
05:45
when we are measuring MDGs.
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dá sa na čísla pozerať rôzne.
05:47
And the reason here for Africa is especially important,
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Pre Afriku je to zvlášť dôležité,
05:50
because '90s was a bad decade,
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pretože deväťdesiate roky boli zlé,
05:52
not only in Kenya, but across Africa.
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nielen pre Keňu, ale pre celú Afriku.
05:55
The HIV epidemic peaked.
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HIV epidémia dosiahla vrchol.
05:57
There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.
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Staré lieky na maláriu už nefungovali a chvíľu trvalo, kým sme zohnali nové.
06:00
We got, later, the mosquito netting.
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Neskôr sme pridali sieťky proti komárom.
06:02
And there was socio-economic problems,
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A boli tam spoločensko-ekonomické problémy,
06:04
which are now being solved at a much better scale.
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ktoré sa teraz riešia oveľa lepšie.
06:07
So look at the average here --
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Pozrite sa na priemer.
06:09
this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.
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Toto je priemer celej subsaharskej Afriky.
06:11
And [the] U.N. says
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A OSN hovorí
06:13
it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.
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o klesaní o 1,8 percenta.
06:16
Now this sounds a little theoretical,
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Toto znie trochu teoreticky,
06:18
but it's not so theoretical.
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ale nie je to úplná teória.
06:20
You know, these economists,
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Viete, ekonómovia milujú peniaze,
06:22
they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.
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a chcú ich viac a viac, chcú, aby čísla rástli.
06:25
So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.
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A tak počítajú percentuálny ročný rast ekonomiky.
06:28
We in public health, we hate child death,
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My vo verejnom zdravotníctve nenávidíme detské úmrtia,
06:31
so we want less and less and less of child deaths.
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a tak chceme čoraz menej a menej a menej detských úmrtí.
06:33
So we calculate the percent reduction per year,
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A tak počítame percentuálny ročný pokles.
06:35
but it's sort of the same percentage.
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Ale v podstate ide o to isté.
06:37
If your economy grows with four percent,
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Ak vaša ekonomika rastie o štyri percentá ročne,
06:39
you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;
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mala by detská úmrtnosť klesať o štyri percentá,
06:41
if it's used well and people are really involved
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ak veci bežia dobre a ľudia sa zapájajú a
06:44
and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.
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môžu využiť zdroje spôsobom, aký chcú.
06:47
So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?
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Takže je spravodlivé merať toto za obdobie 19 rokov?
06:50
An economist would never do that.
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Ekonóm by to nikdy neurobil.
06:53
I have just divided it into two periods.
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Rozdelil som to do dvoch období.
06:55
In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,
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V deväťdesiatych rokoch iba 1,2 percenta,
06:58
only 1.2 percent.
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iba 1,2 percenta.
07:00
Whereas now, second gear --
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Zatiaľ čo teraz, druhý rýchlostný stupeň --
07:02
it's like Africa had first gear,
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toto je ako prvý stupeň,
07:04
now they go into second gear.
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teraz sa dostávajú na druhý.
07:06
But even this
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Ale ani toto
07:08
is not a fair representation of Africa,
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nie je spravodlivé zobrazenie Afriky,
07:10
because it's an average,
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pretože je to priemer,
07:12
it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.
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je to priemerné tempo poklesu v Afrike.
07:14
And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.
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Ukážem vám moje grafy bublín.
07:17
Still here,
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Tu, na tej osi,
07:19
child death per 1,000 on that axis.
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máme detskú úmrtnosť z 1000 detí.
07:22
Here we have [the] year.
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Tu máme rok.
07:24
And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.
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A teraz vám ukazujem širší pohľad ako Rozvojové ciele tisícročia.
07:27
I start 50 years ago
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Začnem pred 50 rokmi,
07:29
when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.
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keď vo väčšine afrických krajín oslavovali nezávisloť.
07:32
I give you Congo, which was high,
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Dám vám Kongo, ktoré bolo vysoko,
07:34
Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.
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Ghanu, nižšie, a Keňu, ešte nižšie.
07:36
And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.
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Čo sa stalo za tú dobu odvtedy? Pozrime sa.
07:39
You can see, with independence, literacy improved
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Ako vidíte, s nezávislosťou sa zlepšila gramotnosť
07:42
and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,
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a začali sa očkovania, kiahne boli vyhubené,
07:45
hygiene was improved, and things got better.
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hygiena zvýšená a veci sa zlepšili.
07:48
But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
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Ale potom, v osemdesiatych rokoch, dávajte pozor.
07:50
Congo got into civil war,
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Kongo sa dostalo do občianskej vojny
07:52
and they leveled off here.
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a ustálilo sa tu.
07:54
Ghana got very ahead, fast.
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Ghana sa veľmi [nejasné].
07:56
This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,
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Keňa urobila krok dozadu a Ghana ich predbehla,
07:59
but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --
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ale potom Keňa a Ghana klesajú spolu --
08:01
still a standstill in Congo.
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a Kongo stále stojí.
08:03
That's where we are today.
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Tu sme dnes.
08:05
You can see it doesn't make sense
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Ako môžete vidieť, je nezmyselné
08:08
to make an average of this zero improvement
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robiť priemer z tohto nulového zlepšenia
08:11
and this very fast improvement.
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a z tohto výrazného zlepšenia.
08:15
Time has come
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Je načase,
08:17
to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.
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aby sme prestali uvažovať o subsaharskej Afrike ako o jednom mieste.
08:21
Their countries are so different,
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Jej krajiny sú tak rôzne,
08:24
and they merit to be recognized in the same way,
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a zaslúžia si, aby sme rozoznávali tak,
08:27
as we don't talk about Europe as one place.
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ako nehovoríme o Európe ako o jednej krajine.
08:29
I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --
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Môžem vám povedať, že ekonomika Grécka a Švédska sú rozdielne.
08:32
everyone knows that.
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Všetci to vedia.
08:34
And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.
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A každú krajinu súdia podľa toho, ako si počína.
08:37
So let me show the wider picture.
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Dovoľte mi ukázať vám to v širšom kontexte.
08:40
My country, Sweden:
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Moja krajina, Švédsko,
08:43
1800, we were up there.
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v roku 1800 sme boli tam hore.
08:46
What a strange personality disorder we must have,
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Musíme mať veľmi zvláštnu poruchu osobnosti,
08:49
counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.
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keď rátame počet detí tak úzkostlivo aj napriek vysokej úmrtnosti.
08:52
It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.
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To je čudné.
08:55
But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,
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Ale boli sme zvyknutí
08:57
that we counted all the child deaths,
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spočítať všetky úmrtia detí,
08:59
even if we didn't do anything about it.
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aj keď sme s tým nič nerobili.
09:01
And then, you see, these were famine years.
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A potom prišli roky hladu.
09:03
These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.
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To boli zlé časy a ľudia sa nakŕmili slobodou.
09:05
My ancestors moved to the United States.
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Moji predkovia sa presťahovali do Spojených štátov.
09:08
And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.
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A napokon sa im tu začalo dariť.
09:11
And here we got better education, and we got health service,
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Tu sme dostali lepšie vzdelanie, zdravotnú starostlivosť
09:14
and child mortality came down.
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a detská úmrtnosť klesla.
09:16
We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.
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Nikdy sme neboli vo vojne, Švédsko žilo celý tento čas v mieri.
09:19
But look, the rate of lowering
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Ale pozrite sa, tempo znižovania
09:21
in Sweden
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v Švédsku
09:23
was not fast.
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nebolo rýchle.
09:25
Sweden achieved a low child mortality
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Švédsko dosiahlo nízku detskú úmrtnosť,
09:28
because we started early.
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pretože začalo skoro.
09:31
We had primary school actually
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Povinné absolvovanie základnej školy
09:33
started in 1842.
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sme mali už v roku 1842.
09:35
And then you get that wonderful effect
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A potom môžete vidieť ten úžasný efekt,
09:37
when we got female literacy
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keď sme o jednu generáciu neskôr
09:39
one generation later.
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mali gramotné ženy.
09:41
You have to realize that the investments we do in progress
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Musíte si uvedomiť, že investície, ktoré nás vedú k pokroku,
09:44
are long-term investments.
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sú dlhodobé.
09:46
It's not about just five years --
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To nie je o piatich rokoch.
09:48
it's long-term investments.
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To sú dlhodobé investície.
09:50
And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,
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A Švédsko nikdy nedosiahlo tempo Rozvojových cieľov tisícročia,
09:53
3.1 percent when I calculated.
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vyrátal som 3,1 percenta.
09:55
So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.
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Takže Švédsko je z kola von.
09:58
But you don't talk about it so much.
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Ale o tom sa tak nehovorí.
10:00
We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.
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Chceme, aby boli ostatní lepší ako my. A skutočne, ostatní boli lepší.
10:03
Let me show you Thailand,
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Ukážem vám Thajsko,
10:05
see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --
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príbeh úspechu, Thajsko zo šesťdesiatych rokov --
10:07
how they went down here
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ako zišli tu dole
10:09
and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.
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a dosiahli takmer rovnakú úroveň detskej úmrtnosti ako Švédsko.
10:12
And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,
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A dám vám ďalší príklad, Egypt,
10:15
the most hidden, glorious success in public health.
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úplne nepošimnutý úžasný príbeh úspechu vo verejnom zdravotníctve.
10:18
Egypt was up here in 1960,
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Egypt bol v roku 1960 tu hore,
10:20
higher than Congo.
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vyššie ako Kongo.
10:22
The Nile Delta was a misery for children
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Ústie Nílu bolo utrpením pre deti
10:25
with diarrheal disease
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s hnačkami
10:27
and malaria and a lot of problems.
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a maláriou a množstvom iných problémov.
10:29
And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,
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A potom postavili Asuánsku priehradu. Dostali elektrinu do domov.
10:32
they increased education
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Zlepšili vzdelanosť
10:34
and they got primary health care.
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a prvotnú zdravotnú starostlivosť.
10:36
And down they went, you know.
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A čísla zišli dolu.
10:38
And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.
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Zabezpečili čistú vodu a vyhubili maláriu.
10:41
And isn't it a success story.
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Toto je príbeh úspechu.
10:43
Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality
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Čísla pre detskú úmrtnosť v Rozvojových cieľoch tisícročia
10:46
is fully possible.
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je možné dosiahnuť.
10:48
And the good thing is
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A je dobré,
10:50
that Ghana today is going with the same rate
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že Ghana dnes klesá rovnakým tempom
10:52
as Egypt did at its fastest.
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ako Egypt vo svojich najrýchlejších časoch.
10:55
Kenya is now speeding up.
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Keňa zrýchľuje.
10:57
Here we have a problem.
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Tu máme problém.
10:59
We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.
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Vážnym problémom sú krajny, ktoré stoja.
11:03
Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,
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Dovoľte mi ukázať vám širší obraz,
11:06
a wider picture of child mortality.
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inú perspektívu detskej úmrtnosti.
11:08
I'm going to show you the relationship
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Ukážem vám vzťah
11:10
between child mortality on this axis here --
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medzi detskou úmrtnosťou na tejto osi --
11:13
this axis here is child mortality --
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táto os je detská úmrtnosť --
11:16
and here I have the family size.
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a tu mám veľkosť rodiny.
11:19
The relationship between child mortality and family size.
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Vzťah medzi detskou úmrtnosťou a veľkosťou rodiny.
11:21
One, two, three, four children per woman:
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Jedno, dve, tri, štyri deti na ženu.
11:23
six, seven, eight children per woman.
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Šesť, sedem, osem detí na ženu.
11:25
This is, once again, 1960 --
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Toto je stav z roku 1960,
11:27
50 years ago.
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spred 50 rokov.
11:29
Each bubble is a country --
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Každá bublina je krajina.
11:31
the color, you can see, a continent.
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Farba, ako môžete vidieť, kontinent.
11:33
The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.
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Tmavomodrá je subsaharská Afrika.
11:35
And the size of the bubble is the population.
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A veľkosť bubliny je populácia.
11:39
And these are
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A toto sú
11:41
the so-called "developing" countries.
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takzvané rozvojové krajiny.
11:43
They had high, or very high, child mortality
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Mali vysokú alebo veľmi vysokú detskú úmrtnosť
11:46
and family size, six to eight.
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a rodina mala šesť až osem detí.
11:49
And the ones over there,
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A títo tu
11:51
they were so-called Western countries.
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boli takzvané západné krajiny.
11:53
They had low child mortality
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Mali nízku detskú úmrtnosť
11:55
and small families.
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a malé rodiny.
11:57
What has happened?
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Čo sa stalo?
11:59
What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes
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Chcem, aby ste na vlastné oči videli
12:02
the relation between fall in child mortality
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vzťah medzi poklesom detskej úmrtnosti
12:05
and decrease in family size.
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a zmenšením rodiny.
12:08
I just want not to have any room for doubt --
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Prosím, dávajte pozor.
12:10
you have to see that for yourself.
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Musíte to vidieť na vlastné oči.
12:12
This is what happened. Now I start the world.
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Toto sa stalo. Spustím svet.
12:15
Here we come down with the eradication of
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Tu prichádza vzdelanie,
12:17
smallpox, better education,
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kiahne, lepšia vzdelanosť,
12:19
health service.
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zdravotná starostlivosť.
12:21
It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.
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Schádzajú tu dole -- Čína prichádza k západným krajinám.
12:24
And here Brazil is in the Western Box.
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A teraz aj Brazília.
12:26
India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,
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India sa blíži. Prvé africké krajiny prechádzajú do tohto rohu.
12:29
and we get a lot a new neighbors.
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Máme veľa nových susedov.
12:31
Welcome to a decent life.
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Vitajte v slušnom živote.
12:33
Come on. We want everyone down there.
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Chceme tu dole všetkých.
12:35
This is the vision we have, isn't it.
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To je vízia, ktorú máme.
12:37
And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.
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A pozrite sa, prichádzajú prvé africké krajiny.
12:40
There we are today.
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Tu sme dnes.
12:43
There is no such thing
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Neexistuje nič také ako
12:45
as a "Western world" and "developing world."
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"západný svet" a "rozvojové krajiny".
12:47
This is the report from [the] U.N.,
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Toto je správa z OSN,
12:49
which came out on Friday.
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ktorá vyšla v piatok.
12:51
It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --
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Je veľmi dobrá -- Úrovne a trendy v detskej úmrtnosti --
12:54
except this page.
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až na túto stranu.
12:56
This page is very bad;
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Táto stránka je veľmi zlá.
12:58
it's a categorization of countries.
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Je to kategorizácia krajín.
13:01
It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --
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Označuje "rozvojové krajiny" -- môžem z tohto zoznamu čítať --
13:04
developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.
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rozvojové krajiny: Južná Kórea.
13:07
Huh?
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Čo?
13:09
They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?
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Majú Samsung, ako môžu byť rozvojovou krajinou?
13:12
They have here Singapore.
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Ďalej, Singapúr.
13:14
They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.
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Veď Singapúr má najnižšiu úroveň detskej úmrtnosti na svete.
13:16
They bypassed Sweden five years ago,
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Predbehli Švédsko pred piatimi rokmi
13:18
and they are labeled a developing country.
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a oni ich označia ako rozvojovú krajinu.
13:20
They have here Qatar.
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Ďalej Katar.
13:22
It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.
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Najbohatšia krajina na svete s Al Jazeerou.
13:24
How the heck could they be [a] developing country?
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Dočerta, ako oni môžu byť rozvojovou krajinou?
13:26
This is crap.
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Toto je blbosť.
13:28
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
13:31
The rest here is good -- the rest is good.
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Zvyšok je dobrý. Zvyšok je dobrý.
13:33
We have to have a modern concept,
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Musíme si zvyknúť na nový koncept,
13:35
which fits to the data.
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ktorý súhlasí s údajmi.
13:37
And we have to realize
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A musíme si uvedomiť,
13:39
that we are all going to into this, down to here.
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že všetci zídu až tu dole.
13:42
What is the importance now with the relations here.
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Doležité sú teraz vzťahy.
13:45
Look -- even if we look in Africa --
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Pozrite sa. Len keď sa pozrieme na Afriku.
13:47
these are the African countries.
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Toto sú africké krajiny.
13:49
You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality
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Jasne vidíte vzťah medzi klesajúcou detskou úmrtnosťou
13:52
and decreasing family size,
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a zmenšovaním rodiny,
13:54
even within Africa.
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dokonca v rámci Afriky.
13:56
It's very clear that this is what happens.
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Je jasné, že toto sa stane.
13:58
And a very important piece of research came out on Friday
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A v piatok vyšla veľmi dôležitá správa z výskumu
14:01
from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
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z Inštitútu pre meranie a hodnotenie zdravia v Seattli,
14:05
showing that almost 50 percent
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ktorá ukazuje, že za takmer 50 percent
14:07
of the fall in child mortality
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poklesu detskej úmrtnosti
14:09
can be attributed to female education.
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môže vzdelanie žien.
14:12
That is, when we get girls in school,
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Keď dostaneme dievčatá do škôl,
14:15
we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,
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výsledky dostaneme o 15 až 20 rokov neskôr,
14:17
which is a secular trend which is very strong.
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čo je veľmi silný dlhodobý trend.
14:20
That's why we must have that long-term perspective,
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Práve preto musíme mať dlhodobú perspektívu,
14:23
but we must measure the impact
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a výsledky musíme merať
14:25
over 10-year periods.
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v desaťročných obdobiach.
14:27
It's fully possible
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Je úplne možné
14:29
to get child mortality down in all of these countries
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dostať čísla detskej úmrtnosti v týchto krajinách nadol
14:31
and to get them down in the corner
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a dostať ich dole, do tohto rohu,
14:33
where we all would like to live together.
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kde by sme všetci chceli žiť spolu.
14:37
And of course, lowering child mortality
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A samozrejme, znižovanie detskej úmrtnosti
14:40
is a matter of utmost importance
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je absolútne najdoležitejšie
14:43
from humanitarian aspects.
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z pohľadu humanitárnej pomoci.
14:45
It's a decent life for children,
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Hovoríme tu
14:47
we are talking about.
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o slušnom živote pre deti.
14:49
But it is also a strategic investment
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A tiež je to strategická investícia
14:52
in the future of all mankind,
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pre budúcnosť celého ľudstva,
14:54
because it's about the environment.
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pretože je o životnom prostredí.
14:57
We will not be able to manage the environment
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Nebudeme schopní starať sa o životné prostredie
14:59
and avoid the terrible climate crisis
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a vyhnúť sa hroznej klimaktickej kríze,
15:01
if we don't stabilize the world population.
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ak neustálime svetovú populáciu.
15:03
Let's be clear about that.
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To si ujasnime.
15:05
And the way to do that,
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A to môžeme dosiahnuť tak,
15:07
that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning
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že znížime detskú úmrtnosť, sprístupníme plánovanie rodičovstva
15:10
and behind that drive female education.
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a v pozadí rozbehneme vzdelávanie žien.
15:13
And that is fully possible. Let's do it.
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A to je možné. Poďme na to.
15:15
Thank you very much.
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Ďakujem veľmi pekne.
15:17
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com