ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxSummit

Hans Rosling: Religions and babies

Hans Rosling: Religija in otroci

Filmed:
2,912,376 views

Hans Rosling je postavil vprašanje: Imajo nekatere religije večje število rojstev kot druge in kako to vpliva na globalno rast prebivalstva? Z govorom na TEDxSummitu v Dohi, Katarju, nam prikaže podatke v času v povezavi z religijo. S svojim značilnim humorjem in ostrim vpogledom, Hans pride do presenetljivega zaključka o svetovnem številu rojstev.
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to talk about religionreligija.
0
357
3865
Govoril bom o religiji.
00:20
But it's a broadširok and very delicateobčutljivo subjectpredmet,
1
4222
5252
Ampak to je široka in zelo občutljiva tema,
00:25
so I have to limitomejitev myselfjaz.
2
9474
1671
zato se moram omejiti.
00:27
And thereforezato I will limitomejitev myselfjaz
3
11145
2480
Tako da se bom omejil samo na
00:29
to only talk about the linkspovezave betweenmed religionreligija and sexualityseksualnost.
4
13625
4409
povezavo med religijo in seksualnostjo.
00:33
(LaughterSmeh)
5
18034
1566
(Smeh)
00:35
This is a very seriousresno talk.
6
19600
2560
To je zelo resen govor.
00:38
So I will talk of what I rememberZapomni si as the mostnajbolj wonderfulČudovito.
7
22160
4095
Zato bom govoril o nečem, kar imam v spominu kot najlepše.
00:42
It's when the youngmladi couplepar whisperšepet,
8
26255
2345
To je, ko mlad par zašepeta,
00:44
"TonightNocoj we are going to make a babyotroka."
9
28600
3172
"Nocoj bova naredila otroka."
00:47
My talk will be about the impactvpliv of religionsreligije
10
31772
5336
Govoril bom o vplivu religij
00:53
on the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
11
37108
4169
na število otrok na žensko.
00:57
This is indeedprav zares importantpomembno,
12
41277
1665
To je v resnici pomembno,
00:58
because everyonevsi understandsrazume
13
42942
1530
saj vsi razumemo
01:00
that there is some sortRazvrsti of limitomejitev
14
44472
2282
da obstaja nekakšna meja
01:02
on how manyveliko people we can be on this planetplanet.
15
46754
3228
koliko ljudi je lahko na tem planetu.
01:05
And there are some people
16
49982
1947
In nekateri ljudje
01:07
who say that the worldsvet populationprebivalstvo is growingrastoče like this --
17
51929
3419
pravijo da svetovno prebivalstvo narašča takole --
01:11
threetri billionmilijardo in 1960,
18
55348
1807
tri miljarde v letu 1960,
01:13
sevensedem billionmilijardo just last yearleto --
19
57155
2639
sedem miljard lansko leto --
01:15
and it will continuenadaljuj to growrastejo
20
59794
1546
in bo še naraščalo,
01:17
because there are religionsreligije that stop womenženske from havingimeti fewmalo babiesdojenčki,
21
61340
3780
ker so tu religije, ki preprečujejo ženskam, da bi imele manj otrok,
01:21
and it maylahko continuenadaljuj like this.
22
65120
2403
in se bo nadaljevalo tako.
01:23
To what extentobseg are these people right?
23
67523
3902
Do katere mere imajo ti ljudje prav?
01:27
When I was bornRojen there was lessmanj than one billionmilijardo childrenotroci in the worldsvet,
24
71425
4880
Ko sem se rodil je bila na svetu manj kot miljarda otrok
01:32
and todaydanes, 2000, there's almostskoraj two billionmilijardo.
25
76305
4175
in sedaj, 2000, sta tu skoraj dve miljardi.
01:36
What has happenedse je zgodilo sinceod,
26
80480
1702
In kaj se je zgodilo od takrat,
01:38
and what do the expertsstrokovnjaki predictnapovedati will happense zgodi
27
82182
2695
in kaj strokovnjaki napovedujejo da se bo zgodilo
01:40
with the numberštevilka of childrenotroci duringmed this centurystoletje?
28
84877
2483
s številom otrok v tem stoletju?
01:43
This is a quizkviz. What do you think?
29
87360
2618
Tu je kviz. Kaj vi mislite?
01:45
Do you think it will decreasezmanjšanje to one billionmilijardo?
30
89978
3902
Mislite da se bo znižalo na eno miljardo?
01:49
Will it remainostanejo the sameenako and be two billionmilijardo by the endkonec of the centurystoletje?
31
93880
3828
Bo ostalo enako in bosta tu dve miljardi na koncu stoletja?
01:53
Will the numberštevilka of childrenotroci increaseporast eachvsak yearleto up to 15 yearslet,
32
97708
3717
Se bo število otrok povečevalo vsako leto do naslednjih 15 let,
01:57
or will it continuenadaljuj in the sameenako fasthitro rateoceniti
33
101425
2504
ali se bo nadaljevalo z enako hitrostjo
01:59
and be fourštiri billionmilijardo childrenotroci up there?
34
103929
2489
in bodo tu 4 miljarde otrok?
02:02
I will tell you by the endkonec of my speechgovor.
35
106418
3425
Povedal vam bom na koncu mojega govora.
02:05
But now, what does religionreligija have to do with it?
36
109843
5022
Ampak sedaj, kaj ima religija s tem?
02:10
When you want to classifyrazvrstite religionreligija,
37
114865
2332
Ko hočete razvrstiti religije,
02:13
it's more difficulttežko than you think.
38
117197
1531
je težje kot si mislite.
02:14
You go to WikipediaWikipedija and the first mapzemljevid you find is this.
39
118728
3204
Greste na Wikipedijo in prvi zemljevid ki ga najdete je tale.
02:17
It dividesdeli the worldsvet into AbrahamicAbrahamska religionsreligije and EasternVzhodni religionreligija,
40
121932
5533
Ta deli svet na Abrahamske religije in Vzhodne religije.
02:23
but that's not detailedpodrobne enoughdovolj.
41
127465
1772
ampak to ni dovolj podrobno.
02:25
So we wentšla on and we lookedpogledal in WikipediaWikipedija, we foundnajdemo this mapzemljevid.
42
129237
3809
Zato smo nadaljevali in pogledali na Wikipedio in našli tale zemljevid.
02:28
But that subdividesrazdeli ChristianityKrščanstvo, IslamIslam and BuddhismBudizem
43
133046
4646
Ampak ta deli Krščanstvo, Islam in Budizem
02:33
into manyveliko subgroupspodskupine,
44
137692
1603
v preveč podskupin,
02:35
whichki was too detailedpodrobne.
45
139295
1505
ki so preveč podrobne.
02:36
ThereforeZato at GapminderGapminder we madeizdelane our ownlastno mapzemljevid,
46
140800
3418
Zato smo pri Gapminderju naredili svoj zemljevid
02:40
and it looksizgleda like this.
47
144218
2373
in izgleda takole.
02:42
EachVsak country'sdržave a bubblemehurček.
48
146591
3403
Vsaka država je mehurček.
02:45
The sizevelikost is the populationprebivalstvo -- bigvelik ChinaKitajska, bigvelik IndiaIndija here.
49
149994
3424
Velikost predstavlja prebivalstvo -- velika Kitajska, velika Indija tu.
02:49
And the colorbarva now is the majorityvečino religionreligija.
50
153418
4114
In barva pove prevladujočo religijo.
02:53
It's the religionreligija where more than 50 percentodstotkov of the people
51
157532
3231
To je religija za katero se opredeli
02:56
say that they belongpripadajo.
52
160763
1255
več kot 50% ljudi.
02:57
It's EasternVzhodni religionreligija in IndiaIndija and ChinaKitajska and neighboringsosednje AsianAzijske countriesdržave.
53
162018
4717
Vzhodne religije v Indiji, na Kitajskem in sosednjih azijskih državah.
03:02
IslamIslam is the majorityvečino religionreligija
54
166735
1973
Islam je prevladujoča religija
03:04
all the way from the AtlanticAtlantika OceanOcean acrossčez the MiddleSrednji EastVzhod,
55
168708
3775
vse od Atlantskega oceana čez Srednji vzhod,
03:08
SouthernJužni EuropeEvropi and throughskozi AsiaAziji
56
172483
2280
južno Evropo in skozi Azijo
03:10
all the way to IndonesiaIndonezija.
57
174763
2237
vse do Indonezije.
03:12
That's where we find IslamicIslamski majorityvečino.
58
177000
2917
Tu najdemo islamsko večino.
03:15
And ChristianKrščanski majorityvečino religionsreligije, we see in these countriesdržave. They are bluemodra.
59
179917
4803
In krščansko večino, vidimo jo v teh državah. Modre barve so.
03:20
And that is mostnajbolj countriesdržave in AmericaAmerika and EuropeEvropi,
60
184720
4025
In to je večina držav v Ameriki in Evropi,
03:24
manyveliko countriesdržave in AfricaAfrika and a fewmalo in AsiaAziji.
61
188745
3670
veliko držav v Afriki in nekaj v Aziji.
03:28
The whitebela here are countriesdržave whichki cannotne morem be classifiedrazvrščeni,
62
192415
2680
Bele so države ki jih ne moremo uvrstiti nikamor,
03:30
because one religionreligija does not reachdoseči 50 percentodstotkov
63
195095
2625
ker nobena religija ne dosega 50%
03:33
or there is doubtdvom about the datapodatkov or there's some other reasonrazlog.
64
197720
3357
ali pa so podatki dvomljivi ali pa je kakšen drug razlog.
03:36
So we were carefulskrbno with that.
65
201077
1760
Zato smo bili previdni s tem.
03:38
So bearmedveda with our simplicitypreprostost now when I take you over to this shotstrel.
66
202837
3858
Zato nam odpustite preprostost zdaj ko vam pokažem tole.
03:42
This is in 1960.
67
206695
2013
To je leto 1960.
03:44
And now I showshow the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska here:
68
208708
3532
In zdaj vam pokažem število otrok na žensko tu:
03:48
two, fourštiri or sixšest --
69
212240
3086
dva, štiri ali šest --
03:51
manyveliko babiesdojenčki, fewmalo babiesdojenčki.
70
215326
2191
malo otrok, veliko otrok.
03:53
And here the incomeprihodki perna personoseba in comparableprimerljiv dollarsdolarjev.
71
217517
3181
In tu je dohodek na osebo v dolarjih.
03:56
The reasonrazlog for that is that manyveliko people say you have to get richbogat first
72
220698
3597
To pa zato ker veliko ljudi pravi, da moraš najprej obogateti,
04:00
before you get fewmalo babiesdojenčki.
73
224295
1670
preden dobiš malo otrok.
04:01
So lownizka incomeprihodki here, highvisoko incomeprihodki there.
74
225965
3632
Torej nizek dohodek tu, visok tu.
04:05
And indeedprav zares in 1960,
75
229597
1638
In res, leta 1960,
04:07
you had to be a richbogat ChristianKrščanski to have fewmalo babiesdojenčki.
76
231235
2737
si moral biti bogat kristjan, da si imel malo otrok.
04:09
The exceptionizjema was JapanJaponska.
77
233972
2274
Izjema je bila Japonska.
04:12
JapanJaponska here was regardedobravnava as an exceptionizjema.
78
236246
3237
Japonska je tu obravnana kot izjema.
04:15
OtherwiseDrugače it was only ChristianKrščanski countriesdržave.
79
239483
2028
Drugače je šlo le za krščanske države.
04:17
But there was alsotudi manyveliko ChristianKrščanski countriesdržave
80
241511
2209
Ampak bilo je tudi veliko krščanskih držav
04:19
that had sixšest to sevensedem babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
81
243720
2572
ki so imele veliko otrok na žensko.
04:22
But they were in LatinLatinski AmericaAmerika or they were in AfricaAfrika.
82
246292
5477
Ampak bile so v Latinski Ameriki ali v Afriki.
04:27
And countriesdržave with IslamIslam as the majorityvečino religionreligija,
83
251769
4173
In države, kjer je Islam prevladujoča religija,
04:31
all of them almostskoraj had sixšest to sevensedem childrenotroci perna womanženska,
84
255942
4630
vse so imele šest do sedem otrok na žensko,
04:36
irregardlessne glede of the incomeprihodki levelravni.
85
260572
2425
ne glede na dohodek.
04:38
And all the EasternVzhodni religionsreligije exceptrazen JapanJaponska had the sameenako levelravni.
86
262997
4243
In vse vzhodne religije razen Japonske prav tako.
04:43
Now let's see what has happenedse je zgodilo in the worldsvet.
87
267240
1920
Zdaj pa poglejmo kaj se je zgodilo s svetom.
04:45
I startZačni the worldsvet, and here we go.
88
269160
1920
Zaženemo svet in gremo.
04:46
Now 1962 -- can you see they're gettingpridobivanje a little richerbogatejše,
89
271080
3218
Zdaj je leto 1962 -- vidite, postajamo malo bogatejši,
04:50
but the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska is fallingpadec?
90
274298
2674
ampak, število otrok na žensko, ali pada?
04:52
Look at ChinaKitajska. They're fallingpadec fairlypošteno fasthitro.
91
276972
2173
Poglejte Kitajsko. Številka hitro upada.
04:55
And all of the MuslimMuslimanske majorityvečino countriesdržave acrossčez the incomeprihodki are comingprihajajo down,
92
279145
4763
In v vseh muslimanskih državah ne glede na dohodek število otrok upada
04:59
as do the ChristianKrščanski majorityvečino countriesdržave in the middlesredi incomeprihodki rangerazpon.
93
283908
4963
tako kot v Krščanskih državah s srednjim dohodkom.
05:04
And when we entervnesite into this centurystoletje,
94
288871
2529
In ko pridemo v to stoletje,
05:07
you'llboš find more than halfpol of mankindčloveštvo down here.
95
291400
3360
boste našli več kot polovico človeštva tu.
05:10
And by 2010, we are actuallydejansko 80 percentodstotkov of humansljudje
96
294760
4926
In do leta 2010 80% ljudi
05:15
who livev živo in countriesdržave with about two childrenotroci perna womanženska.
97
299686
4314
živi v državah z dvema otrokoma na žensko.
05:19
(ApplauseAplavz)
98
304000
3538
(Aplavz)
05:23
It's a quitečisto amazingneverjetno developmentrazvoj whichki has happenedse je zgodilo.
99
307538
3960
Kar osupljiv je napredek, ki se je zgodil.
05:27
(ApplauseAplavz)
100
311498
1377
(Aplavz)
05:28
And these are countriesdržave from UnitedVelika StatesDržave here,
101
312875
3202
In te države iz Združenih držav tu,
05:31
with $40,000 perna capitaprebivalca,
102
316077
2161
s 40.000$ dohodka po glavi,
05:34
FranceFrancija, RussiaRusija, IranIran,
103
318238
2947
Francija, Rusija, Iran,
05:37
MexicoMehika, TurkeyTurčija, AlgeriaAlžirija,
104
321185
3652
Mehika, Turčija, Alžirija,
05:40
IndonesiaIndonezija, IndiaIndija
105
324837
2225
Indonezija, Indija,
05:42
and all the way to BangladeshBangladeš and VietnamVietnam,
106
327062
2729
in vse do Bangladeša in Vietnama,
05:45
whichki has lessmanj than fivepet percentodstotkov of the incomeprihodki perna personoseba of the UnitedVelika StatesDržave
107
329791
4043
ki ima manj kot pet procentov dohodka Združenih držav
05:49
and the sameenako amountznesek of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
108
333834
3157
in enako število otrok na žensko.
05:52
I can tell you that the datapodatkov on the numberštevilka of childrenotroci perna womanženska
109
336991
3231
Lahko vam povem, da so podatki o številu otrok na žensko
05:56
is surprisinglypresenetljivo good in all countriesdržave.
110
340222
2089
presenetljivo dobri v vseh državah.
05:58
We get that from the censuspopis datapodatkov.
111
342311
1947
Te podatke dobimo iz popisa prebivalstva.
06:00
It's not one of these statisticsstatistiko whichki is very doubtfuldvomljiva.
112
344258
3393
Ti statistični podatki niso dojmljivi.
06:03
So what we can concludezaključiti
113
347651
1306
Tako da lahko zaključimo,
06:04
is you don't have to get richbogat to have fewmalo childrenotroci.
114
348957
2781
da ni treba biti bogat, da imaš manj otrok.
06:07
It has happenedse je zgodilo acrossčez the worldsvet.
115
351738
2342
Zgodilo se je širom sveta.
06:09
And then when we look at religionsreligije,
116
354080
2578
In potem pogledamo religije,
06:12
we can see that the EasternVzhodni religionsreligije,
117
356658
2527
in lahko vidimo Vzhodne religije
06:15
indeedprav zares there's not one singlesamski countrydržava with a majorityvečino of that religionreligija
118
359185
3000
in res, niti ena sama država kjer prevladujejo te religije
06:18
that has more than threetri childrenotroci.
119
362185
1895
nima več kot treh otrok.
06:19
WhereasKer with IslamIslam as a majorityvečino religionreligija and ChristianityKrščanstvo,
120
364080
4052
Medtem ko v državah kjer prevladujeta Islam ali Krščanstvo
06:24
you see countriesdržave all the way.
121
368132
1908
vidimo vse vrste držav.
06:25
But there's no majorMajor differenceRazlika.
122
370040
1778
Ampak nobene pomembne razlike ni.
06:27
There's no majorMajor differenceRazlika betweenmed these religionsreligije.
123
371818
3502
Med temi religijami ni nobene pomembne razlike.
06:31
There is a differenceRazlika with incomeprihodki.
124
375320
2351
Tu je razlika v dohodku.
06:33
The countriesdržave whichki have manyveliko babiesdojenčki perna womanženska here,
125
377671
3929
Države ki imajo veliko otrok na žensko tu,
06:37
they have quitečisto lownizka incomeprihodki.
126
381600
1932
imajo precej nizek dohodek.
06:39
MostVečina of them are in sub-SaharanPodsaharski AfricaAfrika.
127
383532
3431
Večina je v podsaharski Afriki.
06:42
But there are alsotudi countriesdržave here
128
386963
2662
Ampak prav tako države tu,
06:45
like GuatemalaGvatemala, like PapuaPapua NewNove GuineaGvineja,
129
389625
4117
na primer Gvatemala, Papua Nova Gvineja,
06:49
like YemenJemen and AfghanistanAfganistan.
130
393742
2806
na primer Jemen in Afganistan.
06:52
ManyVeliko think that AfghanistanAfganistan here and CongoKongo,
131
396548
3877
Mnogi mislijo da Afganistan tu in Kongo,
06:56
whichki have sufferedtrpel severehudo conflictskonfliktov,
132
400425
3450
ki sta utrpela hude konflikte,
06:59
that they don't have fasthitro populationprebivalstvo growthrast.
133
403875
2757
nimata hitre rasti prebivalstva.
07:02
It's the other way around.
134
406632
1777
Ravno obratno je.
07:04
In the worldsvet todaydanes, it's the countriesdržave that have the highestnajvišji mortalitysmrtnost ratesstopnje
135
408409
3893
V današnjem svetu, države, ki imajo največjo umrljivost,
07:08
that have the fastestnajhitrejši populationprebivalstvo growthrast.
136
412302
2236
imajo tudi najhitrejšo rast prebivalstva.
07:10
Because the deathsmrt of a childotrok is compensatednadomestilo by one more childotrok.
137
414538
3988
Zato ker smrt enega otroka nadomesti rojstvo še enega.
07:14
These countriesdržave have sixšest childrenotroci perna womanženska.
138
418526
2908
Te države imajo šest otrok na žensko.
07:17
They have a sadžalostno deathsmrt rateoceniti of one to two childrenotroci perna womanženska.
139
421434
4132
Imajo žalostno povprečje smrti enega do dva otroka na žensko.
07:21
But 30 yearslet from now, AfghanistanAfganistan will go from 30 millionmilijonov to 60 millionmilijonov.
140
425566
3819
Ampak čez 30 let bo Afganistansko prebivalstvo naraslo z 30 na 60 miljonov.
07:25
CongoKongo will go from 60 to 120.
141
429385
3407
Kongo bo zrasel s 60 na 120.
07:28
That's where we have the fasthitro populationprebivalstvo growthrast.
142
432792
2891
Tu imamo hitro rast prebivalstva.
07:31
And manyveliko think that these countriesdržave are stagnantstoječe, but they are not.
143
435683
4345
Mnogi mislijo, da te države stagnirajo, ampak ne.
07:35
Let me compareprimerjati SenegalSenegal, a MuslimMuslimanske dominatedprevladujejo countrydržava,
144
440028
3514
Primerjajmo Senegal, pretežno muslimansko državo,
07:39
with a ChristianKrščanski dominatedprevladujejo countrydržava, GhanaGana.
145
443542
2458
s pretežno krščansko državo, Ghano.
07:41
I take them backwardsnazaj here to theirnjihovi independenceneodvisnost,
146
446000
3597
Peljem ju nazaj do njune samostojnosti,
07:45
when they were up here in the beginningzačetek of the 1960s.
147
449597
3683
ko sta bili tu v začetku šestdesetih.
07:49
Just look what they have doneKončano.
148
453280
2098
Poglejte kaj jima je uspelo.
07:51
It's an amazingneverjetno improvementizboljšava,
149
455378
1551
To je izreden napredek,
07:52
from sevensedem childrenotroci perna womanženska,
150
456929
2237
s sedem otrok na žensko,
07:55
they'veoni so goneizginil all the way down to betweenmed fourštiri and fivepet.
151
459166
3065
so se spustili med štiri in pet.
07:58
It's a tremendousizjemno improvementizboljšava.
152
462231
1587
To je ogromen napredek.
07:59
So what does it take?
153
463818
1425
Kaj je torej potrebno?
08:01
Well we know quitečisto well what is neededpotrebno in these countriesdržave.
154
465243
3597
Vsi dobro vemo kaj je potrebno v teh državah.
08:04
You need to have childrenotroci to survivepreživeti.
155
468840
2489
Imeti moraš otroke, da preživiš.
08:07
You need to get out of the deepestNajgloblji povertyrevščina
156
471329
2613
Priti moraš iz najglobje revščine,
08:09
so childrenotroci are not of importancepomembnost for work in the familydružina.
157
473942
3578
da otroci niso več pomembni za delo v družini.
08:13
You need to have accessdostop to some familydružina planningnačrtovanje.
158
477520
2871
Imeti moraš dostop do načrtovanja družine.
08:16
And you need the fourthčetrti factorfaktor, whichki perhapsmorda is the mostnajbolj importantpomembno factorfaktor.
159
480391
4332
In potrebuješ še četrti dejavnik, ki je morda najbolj pomemben.
08:20
But let me illustrateilustrirajte that fourthčetrti factorfaktor
160
484723
2908
Ampak naj vam orišem četrti dejavnik
08:23
by looking at QatarKatar.
161
487631
2101
s pogledom na Katar.
08:25
Here we have QatarKatar todaydanes, and there we have BangladeshBangladeš todaydanes.
162
489732
3800
Tukaj vidimo Katar danes in tukaj Bangladeš danes.
08:29
If I take these countriesdržave back to the yearslet of theirnjihovi independenceneodvisnost,
163
493532
3637
Če peljemo ti državi nazaj v leta njune neodvisnosti
08:33
whichki is almostskoraj the sameenako yearleto -- '71, '72 --
164
497169
3071
kar je bilo skoraj istega leta --'71, '72 --
08:36
it's a quitečisto amazingneverjetno developmentrazvoj whichki had happenedse je zgodilo.
165
500240
3874
prav neverjeten je napredek, ki se je zgodil.
08:40
Look at BangladeshBangladeš and QatarKatar.
166
504114
1806
Poglejte Bangladeš in Katar.
08:41
With so differentdrugačen incomesdohodkov, it's almostskoraj the sameenako droppadec
167
505920
3258
S tako različnim dohodkom, a skoraj enakim padcem
08:45
in numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
168
509178
2114
v številu otrok na žensko.
08:47
And what is the reasonrazlog in QatarKatar?
169
511292
2003
In kaj je razlog za to v Katarju?
08:49
Well I do as I always do.
170
513295
1659
No, naredil sem to kar vedno naredim.
08:50
I wentšla to the statisticalstatistično authorityorgan of QatarKatar, to theirnjihovi webpagespletne strani --
171
514954
3772
Šel sem na stran statističnega urada v Katarju --
08:54
It's a very good webpagespletne strani. I recommendpriporočam it --
172
518726
2131
Zelo dobra stran je. Priporočam ogled --
08:56
and I lookedpogledal up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of funzabavno here --
173
520857
6491
in sem si pogledal -- o ja, tam se lahko zelo zabavate --
09:03
and providedzagotovljena freeprost of chargeobtožiti, I foundnajdemo Qatar'sKatarju socialsocialno trendstrende.
174
527348
4067
in tam sem zastonj našel podatke o socialnih trendih v Katarju.
09:07
Very interestingzanimivo. Lots to readpreberite.
175
531415
2345
Zelo zanimivo. Veliko za prebrati.
09:09
I foundnajdemo fertilityplodnost at birthrojstvo, and I lookedpogledal at totalskupaj fertilityplodnost rateoceniti perna womanženska.
176
533760
4572
In našel sem podatke o rojstvih in si pogledal podatke o številu otrok na žensko.
09:14
These are the scholarsŠtipendisti and expertsstrokovnjaki in the governmentvlada agencyagencija in QatarKatar,
177
538332
3551
To so učenjaki in strokovnjaki v vladni agenciji v Katarju,
09:17
and they say the mostnajbolj importantpomembno factorsdejavniki are:
178
541883
2655
in oni pravijo, da so najpomembnejši faktorji:
09:20
"IncreasedPovečala agestarost at first marriagezakon,
179
544538
1942
"Večja starost ob prvi poroki,
09:22
increasedpovečal educationalizobraževanje levelravni of QatariQatari womanženska
180
546480
3025
večja izobrazba Katarskh žensk
09:25
and more womenženske integratedintegrirano in the laborporod forcesila."
181
549505
3313
in več zaposlenih žensk."
09:28
I couldn'tni mogel agreese strinjam more. ScienceZnanost couldn'tni mogel agreese strinjam more.
182
552818
3742
Ne bi se mogel bolj strinjati. Znanost se ne bi mogla bolj strinjati.
09:32
This is a countrydržava that indeedprav zares has goneizginil throughskozi
183
556560
2517
To je država, ki je doživela
09:34
a very, very interestingzanimivo modernizationposodobitev.
184
559077
3535
zelo zelo zanmiv razvoj.
09:38
So what it is, is these fourštiri:
185
562612
2625
Torej, to so ti štirje dejavniki:
09:41
ChildrenOtroci should survivepreživeti, childrenotroci shouldn'tne bi smel be neededpotrebno for work,
186
565237
3083
Otroci morajo preživeti, otrok ne smemo potrebovati za delo,
09:44
womenženske should get educationizobraževanje and joinPridružite se the laborporod forcesila
187
568320
2902
ženske se morajo izobraziti in biti zaposlene,
09:47
and familydružina planningnačrtovanje should be accessibledostopen.
188
571222
2273
in načrtovanje družine mora biti dostopno.
09:49
Now look again at this.
189
573495
3388
Poglejte spet sem.
09:52
The averagepovprečje numberštevilka of childrenotroci in the worldsvet
190
576883
2292
Povprečno število otrok v svetu
09:55
is like in ColombiaKolumbija -- it's 2.4 todaydanes.
191
579175
3422
je kot v Kolumbiji -- 2.4.
09:58
There are countriesdržave up here whichki are very poorslabo.
192
582597
3037
Tu zgoraj so države, ki so zelo revne.
10:01
And that's where familydružina planningnačrtovanje, better childotrok survivalpreživetje is neededpotrebno.
193
585634
3951
In tu potrebujejo načrtovanje družine in večje preživetje otrok.
10:05
I stronglymočno recommendpriporočam MelindaMelinda Gates'Gates last TEDTalkTEDTalk.
194
589585
3787
Močno vam priporočam zadnje TED predavanje Melinde Gates.
10:09
And here, down, there are manyveliko countriesdržave whichki are lessmanj than two childrenotroci perna womanženska.
195
593372
5459
In tu, spodaj, je veliko držav, ki imajo manj kot dva otroka na žensko.
10:14
So when I go back now to give you the answerodgovor of the quizkviz,
196
598831
3612
Zdaj bom šel nazaj in vam povedal odgovor na vprašanje v kvizu.
10:18
it's two.
197
602443
1542
Odgovor je 2.
10:19
We have reacheddosegel peakvrh childotrok.
198
603985
2529
Dosegli smo vrh števila otrok.
10:22
The numberštevilka of childrenotroci is not growingrastoče any longerdlje in the worldsvet.
199
606514
2889
Število otrok ne narašča več.
10:25
We are still debatingrazprava peakvrh oilolje,
200
609403
1992
O vrhu cen nafte še debatiramo,
10:27
but we have definitelydefinitivno reacheddosegel peakvrh childotrok.
201
611395
2931
ampak vrh števila otrok smo že dosegli.
10:30
And the worldsvet populationprebivalstvo will stop growingrastoče.
202
614326
2723
In svetovno prebivalstvo bo nehalo naraščati.
10:32
The UnitedVelika NationsNarodov PopulationPrebivalstva DivisionDelitev has said
203
617049
2102
Oddelek za prebivalstvo Združenih narodov je dejal
10:35
it will stop growingrastoče at 10 billionmilijardo.
204
619151
2440
da se bo rast ustavila pri 10 miljardah.
10:37
But why do they growrastejo if the numberštevilka of childrenotroci doesn't growrastejo?
205
621591
4040
Ampak zakaj narašča če ne narašča število otrok?
10:41
Well I will showshow you here.
206
625631
2446
Jaz vam bom pokazal tu.
10:43
I will use these cardkartica boxesškatle in whichki your notebookszvezki cameprišel.
207
628077
3775
Uporabil bom te kartonaste škatle v katerih so bili vaši zvezki.
10:47
They are quitečisto usefulkoristno for educationalizobraževanje purposesnamene.
208
631852
3834
Kar uporabne so za izobraževalne namene.
10:51
EachVsak cardkartica boxškatla is one billionmilijardo people.
209
635686
2908
Vsaka kartonasta škatla predstavlja eno miljardo ljudi.
10:54
And there are two billionmilijardo childrenotroci in the worldsvet.
210
638594
2668
In na svetu sta 2 miljardi otrok.
10:57
There are two billionmilijardo youngmladi people betweenmed 15 and 30.
211
641262
6870
Tu sta dve miljardi mladih ljudi med 15 in 30.
11:04
These are roundedzaokroženo numbersštevilke.
212
648132
1470
To so zaokrožene številke.
11:05
Then there is one billionmilijardo betweenmed 30 and 45,
213
649602
5026
Potem imamo eno miljardo med 30 in 45,
11:10
almostskoraj one betweenmed 45 and 60.
214
654628
3843
in skoraj eno med 45 in 60.
11:14
And then it's my boxškatla.
215
658471
1624
In tu je moja škatla.
11:15
This is me: 60-plus-plus.
216
660095
2025
To sem jaz: 60 plus.
11:18
We are here on topna vrh.
217
662120
2162
Mi smo tu na vrhu.
11:20
So what will happense zgodi now is what we call "the bigvelik fill-upizpolnite."
218
664282
5232
Kar se bo zgodilo sedaj je nekaj čemur pravimo "velika dopolnitev."
11:25
You can see that it's like threetri billionmilijardo missingpogrešam here.
219
669514
2988
Lahko vidite, da tukaj manjkajo kakšne 3 miljarde.
11:28
They are not missingpogrešam because they'veoni so diedumrl; they were never bornRojen.
220
672502
4307
Ne manjkajo zato, ker bi umrli, nikoli se niso rodili.
11:32
Because before 1980, there were much fewermanj people bornRojen
221
676809
4108
Pred letom 1980 se je rodilo veliko manj ljudi
11:36
than there were duringmed the last 30 yearslet.
222
680917
2757
kot v zadnjh 30 leth.
11:39
So what will happense zgodi now is quitečisto straightforwardpreprosto.
223
683674
3154
Kaj se bo zgodilo zdaj je precej preprosto.
11:42
The oldstar, sadlyna žalost, we will dieumreti.
224
686828
2797
Starejši bomo, na žalost, umrli.
11:45
The restpočitek of you, you will growrastejo olderstarejši and you will get two billionmilijardo childrenotroci.
225
689625
4655
Ostali, vi, boste ostareli in imeli dve miljardi otrok.
11:50
Then the oldstar will dieumreti.
226
694280
2608
In nato bodo stari umrli.
11:52
The restpočitek will growrastejo olderstarejši and get two billionmilijardo childrenotroci.
227
696888
4038
Ostali bodo ostareli in imeli dve miljardi otrok.
11:56
And then again the oldstar will dieumreti and you will get two billionmilijardo childrenotroci.
228
700926
5769
In spet bodo starejši umrl in vi boste dobil dve miljardi otrok.
12:02
(ApplauseAplavz)
229
706695
2254
(Aplavz)
12:04
This is the great fill-upizpolnite.
230
708949
3633
To je velika dopolnitev.
12:08
It's inevitableneizogibno.
231
712582
2772
Neizbežna je.
12:11
And can you see that this increaseporast tookvzel placemesto
232
715354
2646
In ali lahko vidite da se je ta rast zgodila,
12:13
withoutbrez life gettingpridobivanje longerdlje and withoutbrez addingdodajanje childrenotroci?
233
718000
4803
brez da bi se življenje podaljšalo in brez da bi dodali otroke?
12:18
ReligionVere has very little to do with the numberštevilka of babiesdojenčki perna womanženska.
234
722803
4905
Religija ima zelo majhen vpliv na število otrok na žensko.
12:23
All the religionsreligije in the worldsvet are fullyv celoti capablesposoben
235
727708
3269
Vse religije na svetu so popolnoma sposobne
12:26
to maintainvzdrževati theirnjihovi valuesvrednosti and adaptprilagoditi to this newnovo worldsvet.
236
730977
5125
ohraniti svoje vrednote in se prilagoditi temu novemu svetu.
12:32
And we will be just 10 billionmilijardo in this worldsvet,
237
736102
5283
In samo 10 miljard nas bo na tem svetu,
12:37
if the poorestnajrevnejše people get out of povertyrevščina,
238
741385
3584
če se bodo najrevnejši rešili iz revščine,
12:40
theirnjihovi childrenotroci survivepreživeti, they get accessdostop to familydružina planningnačrtovanje.
239
744969
3173
če bodo njihovi otroci preživeli, če bodo imeli dostop do načrtovanja družine.
12:44
That is neededpotrebno.
240
748142
1900
To je potrebno.
12:45
But it's inevitableneizogibno that we will be two to threetri billionmilijardo more.
241
750042
5715
Ampak neizogibno je, da nas bo še dve ali tri miljarde več.
12:51
So when you discussrazpravljali and when you plannačrt
242
755757
3212
Torej ko razglabljate in načrtujete,
12:54
for the resourcesvirov and the energyenergija neededpotrebno for the futureprihodnost,
243
758969
3403
o virih in energiji potrebni za prihodnost,
12:58
for humančlovek beingsbitja on this planetplanet,
244
762372
2333
za ljudi na tem planetu,
13:00
you have to plannačrt for 10 billionmilijardo.
245
764705
2157
morate načrtovati za 10 miljard.
13:02
Thank you very much.
246
766862
2150
Najlepša hvala.
13:04
(ApplauseAplavz)
247
769012
6086
(Aplavz)
Translated by Nika Kotnik
Reviewed by Tilen Pigac - EFZG

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com