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Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade? We're winning the war against child mortality
Hans Rosling: Dobre novice desetletja?
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Hans Rosling na novo uokviri 10 let podatkov ZN s svojimi spektakularnimi prikazi, in osvetli--večinoma neobjavljene--dobre novice, vredne prve strani. Spotoma še razkrinka napačen pristop k tem podatkom, ki razmaže tako pomembne zgodbe.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
We are here today
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Danes smo tukaj,
00:17
because [the] United Nations
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ker so Združeni narodi
00:19
have defined goals
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določili cilje
00:21
for the progress of countries.
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za napredek držav.
00:23
They're called Millennium Development Goals.
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Imenujejo se Razvojni cilji tisočletja.
00:26
And the reason I really like these goals
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In razlog, da so mi ti cilji res všeč, je
00:29
is that there are eight of them.
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da jih je osem.
00:32
And by specifying eight different goals,
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In z določitvijo osmih različnih ciljev,
00:34
the United Nations has said
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so Združeni narodi dejali,
00:36
that there are so many things needed
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da je toliko stvari potrebno
00:38
to change in a country
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spremeniti v državi,
00:40
in order to get the good life for people.
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da bi ljudem zagotovili dobro življenje.
00:42
Look here -- you have to end poverty,
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Poglejte--odpraviti moramo revščino,
00:44
education, gender,
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izobrazba, spol,
00:46
child and maternal health,
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zdravje otroka in matere,
00:48
control infections, protect the environment
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nadzorovati okužbe, zaščititi okolje
00:51
and get the good global links between nations
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in pridobiti dobre globalne povezave med narodi
00:53
in every aspect
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v vseh pogledih,
00:55
from aid to trade.
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od pomoči do trga.
00:58
There's a second reason I like these development goals,
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Imam še drug razlog zakaj so mi ti razvojni cilji všeč,
01:01
and that is because each and every one is measured.
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in sicer zato, ker vsakega lahko merimo.
01:04
Take child mortality;
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Vzemimo na primer umrljivost otrok;
01:07
the aim here is to reduce child mortality
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naš cilj je zmanjšati umrljivost otrok
01:09
by two-thirds,
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za dve tretjini
01:11
from 1990 to 2015.
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od leta 1990 do 2015.
01:14
That's a four percent reduction per year --
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To pomeni 4 procentno znižanje vsako leto--
01:18
and this, with measuring.
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in to, z merjenjem.
01:20
That's what makes the difference
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V tem je razlika
01:22
between political talking like this
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med političnim govorjenjem-takole
01:24
and really going for the important thing,
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in resničnim trudom za pomembno stvar,
01:26
a better life for people.
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boljše življenje za ljudi.
01:29
And what I'm so happy about with this
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In tako zadovoljen sem s tem,
01:31
is that we have already documented
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ker smo že zabeležili,
01:33
that there are many countries
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da so mnoge države
01:35
in Asia, in the Middle East,
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v Aziji, na Srednjem Vzhodu
01:37
in Latin America and East Europe
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v Latinski Ameriki in Vzhodni Evropi
01:40
that [are] reducing with this rate.
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kjer se smrtnost zmanjšuje s to hitrostjo.
01:42
And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,
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In celo mogočna Brazilija se znižuje pet procentov na leto,
01:45
and Turkey with seven percent per year.
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in Turčija sedem procentov na leto.
01:47
So there's good news.
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Torej imamo dobre novice.
01:49
But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.
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Ampak potem slišim ljudi, ki pravijo: "V Afriki ni nobenega napredka.
01:52
And there's not even statistics on Africa
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In Afriki sploh ni statistik,
01:54
to know what is happening."
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da bi vedeli, kaj se dogaja."
01:56
I'll prove them wrong on both points.
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Dokazal bom da se motijo v obeh stvareh.
01:59
Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.
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Pridite z mano v čudoviti svet statistik.
02:02
I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,
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Prinašam vam stran, Childmortality.org (umrljivost otrok),
02:05
where you can take deaths in children
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kjer lahko vzamete število smrti otrok
02:07
below five years of age for all countries --
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starih manj kot 5 let za vse države--
02:10
it's done by U.N. specialists.
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to so naredili strokovnjaki ZN.
02:12
And I will take Kenya as an example.
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Kot primer bom vzel Kenijo.
02:14
Here you see the data.
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Tukaj vidite podatke.
02:16
Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.
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Brez panike-- brez panike, pomagal vam bom.
02:19
It looks nasty, like in college
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Izgleda grozno, kot na fakulteti,
02:21
when you didn't like statistics.
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ko niste marali statistike.
02:23
But first thing, when you see dots like this,
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Ampak prvo, kar morate narediti, ko vidite take pike,
02:25
you have to ask yourself:
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se morate vprašati:
02:27
from where do the data come?
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Od kod so prišli ti podatki?
02:29
What is the origin of the data?
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Kje je izvor teh podatkov?
02:31
Is it so that in Kenya,
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So v Keniji
02:33
there are doctors and other specialists
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tu doktorji in drugi specialisti
02:35
who write the death certificate at the death of the child
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ki napišejo potrdilo o smrti ob smri otroka
02:37
and it's sent to the statistical office?
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in ga pošljejo na statistični urad?
02:39
No -- low-income countries like Kenya
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Ne--v državah z nizkim dohodkom, kot je Kenija
02:42
still don't have that level of organization.
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še zmeraj nimajo te ravni organizacije.
02:45
It exists, but it's not complete
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Obstaja, ampak ni popolna
02:47
because so many deaths occur in the home
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ker se toliko smrti zgodi doma
02:50
with the family,
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v krogu družine
02:52
and it's not registered.
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in je neregistrirana.
02:54
What we rely on is not an incomplete system.
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Mi se ne zanašamo na nepopoln sistem.
02:56
We have interviews, we have surveys.
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Imamo intervjuje, vprašalnike.
02:59
And this is highly professional
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In to so visoko profesionalne
03:01
female interviewers
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ženske spraševalke
03:03
who sit down for one hour with a woman
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ki sedijo eno uro z žensko
03:05
and ask her about [her] birth history.
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in jo sprašujejo o njeni preteklosti.
03:07
How many children did you have?
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Koliko otrok ste imeli?
03:09
Are they alive?
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So živi?
03:11
If they died, at what age and what year?
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Če so umrli, katerega leta in koliko stari?
03:14
And then this is done in a representative sample
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In to se opravi na reprezentativnem vzorcu
03:16
of thousands of women in the country
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tisočih žensk v državi
03:19
and put together in what used to be called
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in združi v nečem, čemur smo včasih rekli
03:21
a demographic health survey report.
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poročilo o demografski analizi zdravja.
03:24
But these surveys are costly,
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Ampak take raziskave stanejo,
03:26
so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.
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zato jih lahko opravljamo le v tri do pet-letnih intervalih.
03:29
But they have good quality.
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Ampak so pa kvalitetne.
03:31
So this is a limitation.
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To je torej omejitev.
03:33
And all these colored lines here are results;
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In vse te barvne črte so rezultati;
03:36
each color is one survey.
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vsaka barva je ena raziskava.
03:38
But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,
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Ampak to je preveč zapleteno za danes, zato vam bom poenostavil,
03:41
and I give you one average point for each survey.
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in vam dal eno povprečno točko za vsako raziskavo.
03:44
This was 1977, 1988,
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To je bilo leta 1977, 1988,
03:47
1992, '97
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1992, '97
03:49
and 2002.
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in 2002.
03:52
And when the experts in the U.N.
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In ko imajo strokovnjaki v Z.N.
03:54
have got these surveys in place in their database,
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te raziskave v svoji bazi podatkov,
03:57
then they use advanced mathematical formulas
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potem uporabijo napredne matematične formule
04:00
to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.
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da naredijo linijo trendov, in trend izgleda takole.
04:03
See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.
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Vidite tu-- to je najboljše ujemanje, ki ga lahko dobijo na tej točki.
04:06
But watch out --
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ampak pazite--
04:08
they continue the line
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črto nadaljujejo
04:10
beyond the last point
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prek zadnje točke
04:12
out into nothing.
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naprej v nič.
04:14
And they estimated that in 2008,
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In predvidevali so, da bo imela leta 2008
04:17
Kenya had per child mortality of 128.
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Kenija smrtnost otrok 128.
04:20
And I was sad,
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In bil sem žalosten
04:22
because we could see
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ker smo lahko videli
04:24
this reversal in Kenya
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ta obrat v Keniji
04:26
with an increased child mortality in the 90s.
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s povečano umrljivostjo otrok v devetdesetih.
04:29
It was so tragic.
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Bilo je tako tragično.
04:31
But in June, I got a mail in my inbox
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Ampak junija, je v moj nabiralnik prispelo pismo
04:34
from Demographic Health Surveys,
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iz Demografskih raziskav zdravja
04:36
and it showed good news from Kenya.
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in kazalo je dobre novice za Kenijo.
04:38
I was so happy.
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Bil sem tako srečen.
04:40
This was the estimate of the new survey.
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To so bila predvidevanja nove raziskave.
04:43
Then it just took another three months
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Potem je trajalo še tri mesece
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for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,
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da so Z.N. to dali v svoj server
04:47
and on Friday we got the new trend line --
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in ta petek smo dobili novo linijo trendov --
04:50
it was down here.
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bila je tu spodaj.
04:52
Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?
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Kaj ni lepo-- kaj ni lepo, kaj?
04:54
I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,
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V petek sem sedel pred računalnikom
04:57
and I saw the death rate fall
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in videl padec umrljivosti
04:59
from 128 to 84 just that morning.
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z 128 na 84 prav tisto jutro.
05:02
So we celebrated.
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Zato smo praznovali.
05:04
But now, when you have this trend line,
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Ampak sedaj, ko imate to linijo trendov,
05:06
how do we measure progress?
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kako mermo napredek?
05:08
I'm going into some details here,
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Šel bom v detajle tukaj,
05:10
because [the] U.N. do it like this.
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ker to tako počnejo Z.N.
05:12
They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.
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Začnejo v letu 1990--in merijo do leta 2009.
05:15
They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."
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In rečejo, "0.9%, ni napredka."
05:18
That's unfair.
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To je nepošteno.
05:20
As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.
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Kot profesor, mislim da imam pravico, da predlagam nekaj drugega.
05:23
I would say, at least do this --
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Rekel bom, storite vsaj to--
05:25
10 years is enough to follow the trend.
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10 let je dovolj da sledite trendu.
05:27
It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.
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To sta dve raziskavi, in lahko vidite kaj se dogaja sedaj.
05:30
They have 2.4 percent.
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imajo 2.4 procenta.
05:32
Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,
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Če bi bil na Ministrstvu za zdravje v Keniji,
05:34
I may have joined these two points.
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bi morda združil ti dve točki.
05:37
So what I'm telling you
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Kar vam torej govorim je,
05:39
is that we know the child mortality.
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da poznamo umrljivost otrok.
05:41
We have a decent trend.
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Imamo spodoben trend.
05:43
It's coming into some tricky things then
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Postane pa malo bolj zapleteno
05:45
when we are measuring MDGs.
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ko merimo MDG.
05:47
And the reason here for Africa is especially important,
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In razlog za Afriko je tu še posebej pomemben,
05:50
because '90s was a bad decade,
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ker so bila devetdeseta slabo desetletje,
05:52
not only in Kenya, but across Africa.
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ne samo v Keniji, ampak po vsej Afriki.
05:55
The HIV epidemic peaked.
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HIV epidemija je dosegla vrhunec
05:57
There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.
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imeli smo rezistenco na stara zdravila proti malariji, dokler nismo dobili novih.
06:00
We got, later, the mosquito netting.
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Dobili smo, kasneje, mreže proti komarjem.
06:02
And there was socio-economic problems,
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in tu so bilo socio-ekonomski problemi,
06:04
which are now being solved at a much better scale.
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ki jih sedaj rešujemo na veliko boljši ravni.
06:07
So look at the average here --
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Poglejte torej povprečje tukaj--
06:09
this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.
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to je povprečje za vso Podsaharsko Afriko.
06:11
And [the] U.N. says
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In Z.N. pravijo
06:13
it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.
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da gre za 1.8 procentno zmanjšanje.
06:16
Now this sounds a little theoretical,
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To zveni malo teoretično,
06:18
but it's not so theoretical.
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ampak ni tako teoretično.
06:20
You know, these economists,
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Veste, ti ekonomisti,
06:22
they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.
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ljubijo denar, hočejo vedno več in več, hočejo, da raste.
06:25
So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.
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Zato izračunajo procentno letno rast gospodarstva.
06:28
We in public health, we hate child death,
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Mi v javnem zdravju sovražimo smrt otrok,
06:31
so we want less and less and less of child deaths.
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zato hočemo manj in manj smrti otrok.
06:33
So we calculate the percent reduction per year,
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Zato izračunamo procentno zmanjašnje na leto,
06:35
but it's sort of the same percentage.
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ampak gre za nekako iste procente.
06:37
If your economy grows with four percent,
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Če tvoje gospodarstvo naraste za štiri procente
06:39
you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;
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naj bi se umrljivost otrok zmanjšala za 4 procente;
06:41
if it's used well and people are really involved
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če je dobro izkoriščena in so ljudje res vpleteni
06:44
and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.
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in lahko izkoristijo vire kot si želijo.
06:47
So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?
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Je torej pravično, da merimo to v razponu 19 let?
06:50
An economist would never do that.
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Ekonomist tega ne bi storil.
06:53
I have just divided it into two periods.
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Jaz sem ga samo razdelil v dve obdobji.
06:55
In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,
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V 90ih, samo 1.2 procenta,
06:58
only 1.2 percent.
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samo 1.2 procenta.
07:00
Whereas now, second gear --
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Ampak zdaj, v drugi prestavi--
07:02
it's like Africa had first gear,
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kot če bi bila Afrika v prvi prestavi,
07:04
now they go into second gear.
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zdaj gredo pa v drugo prestavo.
07:06
But even this
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Ampak celo to
07:08
is not a fair representation of Africa,
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ni pravičen prikaz Afrike,
07:10
because it's an average,
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ker je povprečje,
07:12
it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.
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povprečna hitrost zmanjšanja v Afriki.
07:14
And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.
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In poglejte tu, ko vas peljem k mojim prikazom z mehurčki.
07:17
Still here,
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Še zmeraj imamo
07:19
child death per 1,000 on that axis.
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smrti otrok na tisoč prebivalcev na tej osi.
07:22
Here we have [the] year.
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Tu imamo leta.
07:24
And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.
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Zdaj vam dajem širšo sliko kot MDG.
07:27
I start 50 years ago
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Začnem 50 let nazaj
07:29
when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.
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ko je Afrika praznovala samostojnost v večini držav.
07:32
I give you Congo, which was high,
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kažem vam Kongo, ki je visoko,
07:34
Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.
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Gana--nižje. In Kenija--še nižje.
07:36
And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.
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In kaj se je zgodilo skozi leta od takrat?
Gremo.
Gremo.
07:39
You can see, with independence, literacy improved
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Kot vidite, s samostojnostjo, se je izboljšala pismenost
07:42
and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,
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in začelo se je cepljenje, koze so izbrisane,
07:45
hygiene was improved, and things got better.
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higiena se je izboljšala in stvari so se izboljšale.
07:48
But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
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Ampak potem, v osemdesetih, pazite zdaj.
07:50
Congo got into civil war,
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v Kongu se je začela državljanska vojna,
07:52
and they leveled off here.
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in ustalili so se tu.
07:54
Ghana got very ahead, fast.
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Ghana jih je prehitela, zelo hitro.
07:56
This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,
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To je bil zaostanek v Keniji, in Gana jih je prehitela,
07:59
but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --
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Ampak potem se Kenija in Gana spustita skupaj--
08:01
still a standstill in Congo.
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Kongo še zmeraj stoji.
08:03
That's where we are today.
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Tu smo danes.
08:05
You can see it doesn't make sense
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Vidite da nima smisla
08:08
to make an average of this zero improvement
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da naredimo povprečje iz nič napredka
08:11
and this very fast improvement.
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in tega zelo hitrega napredka.
08:15
Time has come
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Prišel je čas
08:17
to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.
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da nehamo razmišljato o Podsaharski Afriki kot enoti.
08:21
Their countries are so different,
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Te države so tako različne,
08:24
and they merit to be recognized in the same way,
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in zaslužijo si, da jih kot take tudi prepoznamo,
08:27
as we don't talk about Europe as one place.
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tako kot ne govorimo o Evropi kot o enem kraju.
08:29
I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --
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Lahko vam povem da je gospodarstvo Grčije in Švedske zelo različno--
08:32
everyone knows that.
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vsi to vedo.
08:34
And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.
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In vsake državo posebej ocenimo, kako ji gre.
08:37
So let me show the wider picture.
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Naj vam pokažem širšo sliko.
08:40
My country, Sweden:
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Moja država, Švedska:
08:43
1800, we were up there.
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1800, smo tu gor.
08:46
What a strange personality disorder we must have,
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Kakšno čudno motnjo osebnosti moramo imeti,
08:49
counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.
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da štejemo otroke tako skrbno kljub tako visoki umrljivosti otrok.
08:52
It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.
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Zelo je čudno. Nekako sramotno je.
08:55
But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,
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Ampak imeli smo to navado na Švedskem, veste,
08:57
that we counted all the child deaths,
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da smo prešteli vse smrti otrok,
08:59
even if we didn't do anything about it.
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čeprav nismo glede tega storili nič.
09:01
And then, you see, these were famine years.
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In potem, vidite, to so bila leta lakote.
09:03
These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.
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To so bila slaba leta, in ljudje so imeli Švedske dovolj.
09:05
My ancestors moved to the United States.
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Moji predniki so se preselili v Združene države.
09:08
And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.
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In sčasoma, kmalu so se stvari izboljšale.
09:11
And here we got better education, and we got health service,
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In tu imamo boljšo izobrazbo, zdravstveno oskrbo,
09:14
and child mortality came down.
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in umrljivost otrok se je zmanjšala.
09:16
We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.
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Nikoli nismo imeli vojne, Švedska je bila v miru ves ta čas.
09:19
But look, the rate of lowering
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Ampak poglejte, hitrost zniževanja
09:21
in Sweden
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na Švedskem
09:23
was not fast.
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ni bila hitra.
09:25
Sweden achieved a low child mortality
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Švedska je dosegla nizko umrljivost otrok
09:28
because we started early.
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ker smo zgodaj začeli.
09:31
We had primary school actually
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Osnovno šolo smo
09:33
started in 1842.
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dobili leta 1842.
09:35
And then you get that wonderful effect
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In potem dobiš ta čudoviti učinek
09:37
when we got female literacy
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ko smo dobili pismene ženske
09:39
one generation later.
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eno generacijo kasneje.
09:41
You have to realize that the investments we do in progress
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Zavedati se morate da so te investicije
09:44
are long-term investments.
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dolgoročne investicije.
09:46
It's not about just five years --
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Ne gre za samo 5 let--
09:48
it's long-term investments.
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to so dolgoročne investicije.
09:50
And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,
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In Švedska ni nikoli dosegla Razvojnega cilja tisočletja,
09:53
3.1 percent when I calculated.
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3.1 procent ko sem to izračunal.
09:55
So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.
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Zato smo izven poti--to je Švedska.
09:58
But you don't talk about it so much.
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Ampak o tem se ne govori veliko.
10:00
We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.
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Hočemo, da bi bili drugi boljši od nas, in res, drugi so bili boljši.
10:03
Let me show you Thailand,
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Naj vam pokažem Tajsko,
10:05
see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --
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poglejte kakšna zgodba o uspehu, Tajska iz leta 1960--
10:07
how they went down here
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kako so prišli semdol
10:09
and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.
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in dosegli skoraj enako umrljivost otrok kot Švedska.
10:12
And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,
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Še eno zgodbo vam pokažem--Egipt,
10:15
the most hidden, glorious success in public health.
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najbolj skrit, veličasten uspeh v javnem zdravju.
10:18
Egypt was up here in 1960,
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Egipt je bil tu leta 1960,
10:20
higher than Congo.
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višje kot Kongo.
10:22
The Nile Delta was a misery for children
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Delta Nila je bila beda za otroke
10:25
with diarrheal disease
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z diarejo
10:27
and malaria and a lot of problems.
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in malarijo in veliko problemi.
10:29
And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,
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Potem so dobili Asuanski jez. Dobili so elektriko v domovih,
10:32
they increased education
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povečali so izobrazbo
10:34
and they got primary health care.
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in dobili primarno zdravstveno oskrbo.
10:36
And down they went, you know.
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In šli so dol, veste.
10:38
And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.
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In dobili so varnejšo vodo in izbrisali malarijo.
10:41
And isn't it a success story.
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Kaj ni to zgodba o uspehu.
10:43
Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality
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Milenijski razvojni cilj za umrljivost otrok
10:46
is fully possible.
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je popolnoma mogoč.
10:48
And the good thing is
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In dobra stvar je,
10:50
that Ghana today is going with the same rate
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da Gana danes napreduje z istjo hitrostjo,
10:52
as Egypt did at its fastest.
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kot Egipt v najhitrejših časih.
10:55
Kenya is now speeding up.
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Kenija je sedaj pospešila.
10:57
Here we have a problem.
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Tu imamo problem.
10:59
We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.
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Imamo resen problem v državah ki se ne premaknejo.
11:03
Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,
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Naj vam sedaj pokažem širšo sliko,
11:06
a wider picture of child mortality.
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širšo sliko umrljivosti otrok.
11:08
I'm going to show you the relationship
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Pokazal vam bom povezavo
11:10
between child mortality on this axis here --
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med umrljivostjo otrok na tej osi tu--
11:13
this axis here is child mortality --
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ta os tu je umrljivost otrok--
11:16
and here I have the family size.
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in tu imam velikost družine.
11:19
The relationship between child mortality and family size.
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Povezava med umrljivostjo otrok in velikostjo družine.
11:21
One, two, three, four children per woman:
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En, dva trije otroci na žensko:
11:23
six, seven, eight children per woman.
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šest, sedem, osem otrok na žensko.
11:25
This is, once again, 1960 --
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To je, spet, leto 1960--
11:27
50 years ago.
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50 let nazaj.
11:29
Each bubble is a country --
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Vsak mehurček je država--
11:31
the color, you can see, a continent.
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Barva, kot vidite, je kontinent.
11:33
The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.
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Temno modra tu je Podsaharska Afrika.
11:35
And the size of the bubble is the population.
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In velikost mehurčka je populacija.
11:39
And these are
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In to so
11:41
the so-called "developing" countries.
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tako imenovane države "v razvoju".
11:43
They had high, or very high, child mortality
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Imele so visoko, ali pa zelo visoko, umrljivost otrok
11:46
and family size, six to eight.
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in velikost družine, šest do osem.
11:49
And the ones over there,
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In te tu,
11:51
they were so-called Western countries.
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to so bilo tako imenovane Zahodne države.
11:53
They had low child mortality
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Imele so nizko umrljivost otrok
11:55
and small families.
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in majhne družine.
11:57
What has happened?
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Kaj se je zgodilo?
11:59
What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes
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Sedaj hočem da vidite to na lastne oči,
12:02
the relation between fall in child mortality
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povezavo med padcem umrljivosti otrok
12:05
and decrease in family size.
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in zmanjšano velikostjo družine.
12:08
I just want not to have any room for doubt --
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Hočem samo, da ni nič prostora za dvom--
12:10
you have to see that for yourself.
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sami morate videti.
12:12
This is what happened. Now I start the world.
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To se je zgodilo. Sedaj zaženem svet.
12:15
Here we come down with the eradication of
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Tukaj se znižamo z izkoreninjenjem
12:17
smallpox, better education,
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koz, boljšo izobrazbo,
12:19
health service.
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zdravstveno oskrbo.
12:21
It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.
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Do sem dol smo prišli-- Kitajska pride v zahodni kvadratek tu.
12:24
And here Brazil is in the Western Box.
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in Brazilija pride v zahodni kvadratek.
12:26
India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,
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India se približuje. prve afriške države prihajajo v zahodni kvadratek,
12:29
and we get a lot a new neighbors.
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in dobimo veliko novih sosedov.
12:31
Welcome to a decent life.
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Dobrodošli v spodobnem življenju.
12:33
Come on. We want everyone down there.
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Dajmo. Hočemo vse tu spodaj.
12:35
This is the vision we have, isn't it.
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To je naša vizija, kajne.
12:37
And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.
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In poglejte zdaj, prve afriške države prihajajo sem.
12:40
There we are today.
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Tu smo danes.
12:43
There is no such thing
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Ne obstaja
12:45
as a "Western world" and "developing world."
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"Zahodni svet" in "svet v razvoju".
12:47
This is the report from [the] U.N.,
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To je poročilo Z.N.,
12:49
which came out on Friday.
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ki je bilo izdano v petek.
12:51
It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --
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Zelo je dobro--"Stopnje in trendi v umrljivosti otrok"-
12:54
except this page.
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razen te strani.
12:56
This page is very bad;
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Ta stran je zelo slaba;
12:58
it's a categorization of countries.
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gre za kategorizacijo držav.
13:01
It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --
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Označuje "države v razvoju"--lahko vam preberem seznam tu--
13:04
developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.
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države v razvoju:Korejska republika--Južna Koreja.
13:07
Huh?
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Kaj?
13:09
They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?
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Oni imajo Samsung, kako so lahko država v razvoju?
13:12
They have here Singapore.
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Tu je Singapur.
13:14
They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.
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Najnižjo umrljivost na svetu imajo v Singapurju.
13:16
They bypassed Sweden five years ago,
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Prehiteli so Švedsko pred petimi leti,
13:18
and they are labeled a developing country.
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in so označeni kot država v razvoju.
13:20
They have here Qatar.
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Tu je Katar.
13:22
It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.
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To je najbogatejša država na svetu, z Al Jazeero.
13:24
How the heck could they be [a] developing country?
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Kako za hudiča so lahko država v razvoju?
13:26
This is crap.
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To je sranje.
13:28
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
13:31
The rest here is good -- the rest is good.
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ostalo tu je dobro--ostalo je dobro.
13:33
We have to have a modern concept,
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Imeti moramo moderen koncept
13:35
which fits to the data.
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ki se ujema s podatki.
13:37
And we have to realize
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In zavedati se moramo
13:39
that we are all going to into this, down to here.
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da gremo vsi sem dol.
13:42
What is the importance now with the relations here.
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Kaj je sedaj pomembno pri povezavah tu.
13:45
Look -- even if we look in Africa --
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poglejte--celo če pogledamo Afriko--
13:47
these are the African countries.
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to so afriške države.
13:49
You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality
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Tu lahko jasno vidite povezavo s padajočo umrljivostjo otrok
13:52
and decreasing family size,
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in zmanjševanjem velikosti družine,
13:54
even within Africa.
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celo v Afriki.
13:56
It's very clear that this is what happens.
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Zelo jasno je, da se to zgodi.
13:58
And a very important piece of research came out on Friday
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in zelo pomemben del raziskave je bil izdan v petek
14:01
from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
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iz Inštituta za Merjenje zdravja in ocenjevanje v Seattlu
14:05
showing that almost 50 percent
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ki kaže da skoraj 50 procentov
14:07
of the fall in child mortality
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padca umrljivosti otrok
14:09
can be attributed to female education.
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lahko pripišemo izobrazbi žensk.
14:12
That is, when we get girls in school,
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To je, ko gredo deklice v šolo,
14:15
we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,
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dobimo vpliv 15 do 20 let kasneje,
14:17
which is a secular trend which is very strong.
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to je sekularni trend, ki je zelo močan.
14:20
That's why we must have that long-term perspective,
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zato moramo imeti dolgoročno perspektivo,
14:23
but we must measure the impact
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ampak moramo meriti vpliv
14:25
over 10-year periods.
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v desetletnih obdobjih.
14:27
It's fully possible
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Popolnoma mogoče je,
14:29
to get child mortality down in all of these countries
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da zmanjšamo umrljivost trok v teh državah
14:31
and to get them down in the corner
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in jih spravimo dol v ta kot,
14:33
where we all would like to live together.
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kjer bi vsi radi živeli skupaj.
14:37
And of course, lowering child mortality
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In seveda, zmanjševanje umrljivosti otrok
14:40
is a matter of utmost importance
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je zelo pomembno
14:43
from humanitarian aspects.
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iz humantarnega vidika.
14:45
It's a decent life for children,
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Pomeni spodobno življenje za otroke,
14:47
we are talking about.
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o tem govorimo.
14:49
But it is also a strategic investment
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Prav tako pa je to strateška investicija
14:52
in the future of all mankind,
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v prihodnost človeštva,
14:54
because it's about the environment.
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ker zadeva okolje.
14:57
We will not be able to manage the environment
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Ne bomo sposobni obvladati okolja
14:59
and avoid the terrible climate crisis
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in se izogniti grozljivi klimatski krizi
15:01
if we don't stabilize the world population.
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če ne uravnovesimo svetovne populacije.
15:03
Let's be clear about that.
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Bodimo jasni glede tega.
15:05
And the way to do that,
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In to lahko storimo tako,
15:07
that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning
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da zmanjšamo umrljivost otrok, omogočimo dostop do načrtovanja družine
15:10
and behind that drive female education.
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in za vsem tem omogočimo izobrazbo žensk.
15:13
And that is fully possible. Let's do it.
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In to je popolnoma mogoče. Storimo to.
15:15
Thank you very much.
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Najlepša hvala.
15:17
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com