TEDGlobal 2005
Nick Bostrom: A philosophical quest for our biggest problems
Nick Bostrom: Baadidoon falsafadeed oo ku aadan xalka mushkiladeheena ugu waawayn
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Nick Bostrom oo ah filasoof iyo cilmibaadhe daarasadaha ''waxa biniaadantinimada ka shisheeya/transhummanism'' oo jooga jaaamacad Oxford ayaa wuxuu lafa gurayaa mustaqbalka aadanaha, wuxuna is waydiinayaa inay suurtagal tahay in la bedelo dabeecadaha biniaadamka ee aasaasiga si xal loogu helo dhibaatooyinkeena ugu kakan.
Nick Bostrom - Philosopher
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bio
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
I want to talk today about --
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Waxan rabaa inan ka hadlo maanta--
00:27
I've been asked to take the long view, and I'm going to tell you what
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Waxa lay warsaday inaan qaaddo aragtida dheer, waxaan rabaa inaan wax idiinka sheego wax
00:33
I think are the three biggest problems for humanity
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aan u arko sadexda dhibaato ee ugu waawayn ee binidaamka haysta
00:37
from this long point of view.
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anoo ka duulaya aragtida dheer.
00:40
Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers,
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Qaar kamid ah waxaa taabtay dadkii kalee hadlay
00:43
which is encouraging.
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taasoo dhiirigelin ah.
00:45
It seems that there's not just one person
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Waxayna u muqaataa inaanu qof keliya ahayn
00:47
who thinks that these problems are important.
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cida filaysa in dhibatooyinkani ay miisaankooda leeyihiin.
00:49
The first is -- death is a big problem.
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Ta koowaad--geeridu waa dhibaatada ugu wayn.
00:53
If you look at the statistics,
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Hadaad eegtid istaastiistakada
00:56
the odds are not very favorable to us.
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Tiradu ma wanaagsana.
00:58
So far, most people who have lived have also died.
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Ilaa hada, dhamaan dadkii noolaa(soo jiray) way dhinteen.
01:02
Roughly 90 percent of everybody who has been alive has died by now.
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Ugu dhowaan 90 boqolkiiba qof kastoo noolaa (soo jiray) hada wuu dhintay.
01:06
So the annual death rate adds up to 150,000 --
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Sidaa awgeed tirada sanadkii ee dhimasadu waa--
01:12
sorry, the daily death rate -- 150,000 people per day,
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cafwan, tirada dhimashada maalinlaha ahi waa --150,000 qof maalin kasta,
01:15
which is a huge number by any standard.
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taasoo ah tiro aad u wayn xajmi ahaan.
01:18
The annual death rate, then, becomes 56 million.
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Tirada dhimashada sanadkii, marka, waxay noqonay 56 million
01:23
If we just look at the single, biggest cause of death -- aging --
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Hadaynu eegno sababta koowaad ee dhimashada--gabaywga--
01:29
it accounts for roughly two-thirds of all human people who die.
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waxay galaafataa sadex meelood labba dadka dhinta.
01:34
That adds up to an annual death toll
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Taasi waxay ina siinaysaa tiro dhimasho sanadkii
01:37
of greater than the population of Canada.
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oo ka badan tirada dadka ku nool Kanada.
01:39
Sometimes, we don't see a problem
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Mararka qaar, dhibaato uma aragno
01:41
because either it's too familiar or it's too big.
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waayo waa laba mid uun ama waa muctarif ama waa wayntahay.
01:45
Can't see it because it's too big.
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Lama arki karo waayo waa wayn tahay.
01:47
I think death might be both too familiar and too big
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Waxan qabaa in geeridu ay macruuf u tahay ama ku wayntahay
01:50
for most people to see it as a problem.
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dadka badankiisa si ay ugu aqoonsadaan dhibaato.
01:53
Once you think about it, you see this is not statistical points;
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Markaad ka fikirtid waad arkaysa inaanu arinku istaatitik kaliya ahayn;
01:55
these are -- let's see, how far have I talked?
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Bal hada aan eego inta aan hadlay?
01:57
I've talked for three minutes.
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Waxan hadlay 3 minute.
02:00
So that would be, roughly, 324 people have died since I've begun speaking.
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Taasi markaa waxa weeye ugu dhowaan 324 ayaa dhinta tan iyo intaan hadalka bilaabay.
02:07
People like -- it's roughly the population in this room has just died.
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Wax ku dhow dadka hoolkan fadhiya ayaa dhintay.
02:12
Now, the human cost of that is obvious,
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Hadaba, kharashka biniaadamka ka galaa waa cadyahay,
02:14
once you start to think about it -- the suffering, the loss --
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markaad ka yara fekertid--dhibaatada iyo khasaaraha--
02:17
it's also, economically, enormously wasteful.
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dhaqaale ahaan aad bay u kharash qub badantahay.
02:20
I just look at the information, and knowledge, and experience
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Waxan ka wadaa macluumaadka, cilmiga, iyo khibrada
02:23
that is lost due to natural causes of death in general,
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taasoo la luminayo iyadoo ay u wacantahay sababaha dabiiciga ah ee dhimashada,
02:26
and aging, in particular.
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gabowga, gaar ahaan.
02:28
Suppose we approximated one person with one book?
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Kasoo qaad inaan qof kasta kusoo hagaajinay hal buug?
02:31
Now, of course, this is an underestimation.
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Dabcan tani waa qiyaas hoosaad.
02:33
A person's lifetime of learning and experience
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Qofka cimrigiisa guud ahaan cilmigiisii iyo khibradiisii oo dhan
02:39
is a lot more than you could put into a single book.
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hal buug waa ka badantahay wax lagu soo koobo.
02:41
But let's suppose we did this.
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Kaba soo qaadse sidaas inaan samaynay.
02:44
52 million people die of natural causes each year
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52 million oo qof oo u dhinta sababa dabiiciya sanad kasta
02:49
corresponds, then, to 52 million volumes destroyed.
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waxay u dhigantaa 52 million oo majaladood oo la burburiyay.
02:53
Library of Congress holds 18 million volumes.
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Maktabada Kongreeska waxa yaala 18 million oo mujalo.
02:57
We are upset about the burning of the Library of Alexandria.
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Waan ka xunahay gubidii Maktabadii Alexadandira
03:00
It's one of the great cultural tragedies
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Masiibo xadaaradeed oo wayn bay ahayd.
03:02
that we remember, even today.
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Waynu xusuusana taa ilaa hada.
03:06
But this is the equivalent of three Libraries of Congress --
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Laakiin tani waxay u dhigantaa sadex maktabadood oo ta Kongreska ah--
03:08
burnt down, forever lost -- each year.
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oo la gubo, si aan soo noqod lahayn --sanad kasta.
03:11
So that's the first big problem.
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Hadaba taasi waa dhibaatada wayn ee koowaad.
03:13
And I wish Godspeed to Aubrey de Grey,
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Waxan ku calool san ahay in Aubrey de Grey,
03:16
and other people like him,
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iyo dadka kalee lamid ahi,
03:18
to try to do something about this as soon as possible.
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ay arinkan wax ka qaban doonaan sida ugu macquulsan.
03:22
Existential risk -- the second big problem.
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Khatar jiritaan--waa dhibaatada wayn ee labbaad.
03:25
Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.
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Khatar jiritaan waa halista ku wajahan badbaada biniaadamka ama ubadkooda.
03:32
Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?
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Hada, maxaan u leeyahay taniw aa dhibaato wayn?
03:34
Well, let's first look at the probability --
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Hagaag, bal aan ixtimaalka eegno--
03:38
and this is very, very difficult to estimate --
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waase qiyaas aaad iyo aad u adag--
03:41
but there have been only four studies on this in recent years,
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laakiin sadex cilmibaadhiseed kaliya ayaa lagu sameeyay sanadadii tagay,
03:44
which is surprising.
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taasoo cajiib ah.
03:46
You would think that it would be of some interest
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Waxad filaysaan inay muhiimad leedahay arinkan ah
03:49
to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big,
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in laysku dayo in la helo wax badan oo ku saabsan ujeedkan
03:53
but it's a very neglected area.
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balse waa hawl la dayacay.
03:55
But there have been four studies --
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Laakiin waxa jiray afar daraasadood,
03:57
one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this.
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mid uu leeyahay John Lesley, oo buug ka qoray.
03:59
He estimated a probability that we will fail
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Wuxuu qiimeeyay ixtimaalka inay ku guul daraysano
04:01
to survive the current century: 50 percent.
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inay badbaadno qarnigan: 50 boqolkiiba.
04:04
Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday,
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Sidoo kale, maluugbaadh Royal, oo aan shalay dhagaysanay
04:09
also has a 50 percent probability estimate.
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wuxuu sidoo kale sheegay ixtimaal ah 50 boqolkiiba.
04:12
Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate,
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Qoraa kalena wax qiyaas tiro ah ma bixin,
04:15
but says the probability is significant that it will fail.
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laakiin wuxuu sheegay in ixtimalka guuldaradu badanyahay.
04:18
I wrote a long paper on this.
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Waraaq dheer baan ka qoray tan.
04:21
I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake
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Waxann iri in wax ka yar 20 boqolkiiba oo ixtimaala loo sheegaa waa khalad
04:25
in light of the current evidence we have.
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marka lagu eego cadaynta hadda aan hayno.
04:28
Now, the exact figures here,
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Hada, tiradan cad ee halkan,
04:30
we should take with a big grain of salt,
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waa inaan gabigeedba sax u wada qaadan
04:32
but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial.
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laakiin waxay jira isku waafaqsanaan guud inay khatartu tahay mid jirta.
04:35
Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.
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Qof kasta oo tan arkay ama daraaseeyay wuu garawsanyahay.
04:38
Now, if we think about what just reducing
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Hada, hadaan eegno dhimida
04:40
the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point --
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ixtimaalka dabar go'a biniaadmaka kaliya hal boqokiiba--
04:45
not very much -- so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved,
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wax badan maaha-- markaa waxay la mid tahay 60 million oo nafood oo la badbaaday.
04:50
if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.
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Hadaynu tirino dadka hadda nool, jiilka hadda.
04:54
Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.
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Hal boqolkiiba oo lix bilyan waxay uga dhigantaa 60 milyan.
04:58
So that's a large number.
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Marka taasi waa tirada wayn.
05:00
If we were to take into account future generations
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Hadaan xisaabta ku darsano jiilasha mustaqbalka
05:03
that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up,
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taasi marna ma iman karto hadaan is kharibno
05:08
then the figure becomes astronomical.
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arintu waxay noqonaysaa mid aad u saraysa.
05:11
If we could eventually colonize a chunk of the universe --
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Hadaynu ugu danbayn aynu qabsan karo qayb ka mid ah kownka-
05:14
the Virgo supercluster --
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sida ururada laxaha oo kale--
05:16
maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,
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oo inagu qaadan karta 100 milyan inay gaadhno
05:18
but if we go extinct we never will.
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laakiin dabar go'no ma dhici doonto.
05:21
Then, even a one percentage point reduction
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Markaa xataa hal boqolkiiba oo dhimis ah
05:24
in the extinction risk could be equivalent
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khatarta dabar go'u waxay u dhigmi kartaa
05:28
to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32.
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tiradan aadka u saraysa- 10 ku jibaaran 32.
05:31
So if you take into account future generations as much as our own,
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Laakiin hadaad xisaabsatid jiilka mustaqbalka sida kuweena
05:35
every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant.
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kharash kasta oo kale oo laga hadlaa wuxuu noqonayaa midaan aad usii jirin.
05:40
The only thing you should focus on
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Waxa kaliya ee aad u baahantahay inaad eegtid
05:42
would be to reduce existential risk
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waxay noqonayda dhimista khatarta dabar go'a
05:44
because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk
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sababtoo ah xitaa hoos u dhaca yar ee ku yimaada khatarta dabar go'u
05:48
would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.
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waxay ka badan kartaa faaiido kasta oo aad is lahayd gaadh.
05:52
And even if you just look at the current people,
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Markaa xitaa hadaad eegtid dadka maanta
05:54
and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct,
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iskana qarisid ixtimaalka la waayayo hadaan dabar go'no
05:59
it should still have a high priority.
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waa inay wali leedahay muhiimad sarre.
06:01
Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem,
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Hadabba, hada aan waqtigayga intiisa kale ku qaato dhibaatada sadexaad ee wayn.
06:06
because it's more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp.
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waayo waxa laga yaabba inay tahay mid qarsoon ayna adagtahay in lagu baraarugo.
06:12
Think about some time in your life --
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Ka feker waqti noloshaada ka mid ah
06:16
some people might never have experienced it -- but some people,
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dadka qaar waxa laga yaaba inaanay soo marin- laakiin dadka qaar
06:19
there are just those moments that you have experienced
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waxa jira waqtiyo kusoo maray
06:22
where life was fantastic.
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oo ay noloshu ahayd mid xiiso leh.
06:24
It might have been at the moment of some great, creative inspiration
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Waxay laga yaaba inay ahayd waqti dhiirigelin halabuur wayn
06:31
you might have had when you just entered this flow stage.
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oo aad heshay markii aad gashay xaaladdaa.
06:33
Or when you understood something you had never done before.
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Ama markii aad fahantay wax aanad horu u samayn.
06:35
Or perhaps in the ecstasy of romantic love.
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Ama macqul ahaan waqti aad gashay xaalad jacayl.
06:39
Or an aesthetic experience -- a sunset or a great piece of art.
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Ama xaalad qurux la xidhiidha--sida gabal dhaca ama farshaxan heer sare ah
06:44
Every once in a while we have these moments,
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Marka ay waqtiyadaasi ina soo maraaan
06:46
and we realize just how good life can be when it's at its best.
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waxaynu garawsannaa sida noloshu u qurux badantahay.
06:50
And you wonder, why can't it be like that all the time?
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Waxadna is waydiisaa, maxay sidaas u ahaan wayday noloshu mar kasta?
06:55
You just want to cling onto this.
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waxaad rabtaa inaad ku dhegtid waqtigaas.
06:57
And then, of course, it drifts back into ordinary life and the memory fades.
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Dabcana waxay dib ugu noqotaa waqtigii caadiga ahaa, xaaladaasina way suurtaa.
07:01
And it's really difficult to recall, in a normal frame of mind,
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Xaqiiqdiina way adkaadaa in dib loo xusuusto, xaalada maskaxeed ee nolol maalmeedka caadiga ah,
07:05
just how good life can be at its best.
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sida noloshu u macaantahay waqtiga wanaaga.
07:08
Or how bad it can be at its worst.
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ama sida ay u qadhaadhahay waqtiga dhibta.
07:11
The third big problem is that life isn't usually
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Dhibaatada sadexaad waa inaanay noloshu inta badan
07:14
as wonderful as it could be.
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u wanaagsansanayn sida ahayd inay ahaato.
07:16
I think that's a big, big problem.
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Waxan filayaa inay tahay dhibaato wayn, wayn.
07:20
It's easy to say what we don't want.
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Way fududahay inan sheegno waxaynaan rabin.
07:23
Here are a number of things that we don't want --
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Halkan waa tiro wax ah oo aynaan rabin--
07:26
illness, involuntary death, unnecessary suffering, cruelty,
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xanuun, dhimasho degdeg ah, dhibaato aan loo baahnayn, xumaan,
07:29
stunted growth, memory loss, ignorance, absence of creativity.
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koritaan xumo, xusuus lun, jahli, halabuur daro.
07:35
Suppose we fixed these things -- we did something about all of these.
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Kasoo qaad inaan xalinay waxaaso dhan--waxbaan ka qabanay dhamaantood.
07:38
We were very successful.
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Waxaynu nahay kuwa guulaystay markaa.
07:40
We got rid of all of these things.
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Dhaman waxyabaaha oo dhan baan iska qubnay,
07:42
We might end up with something like this,
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Waxaan soo baxaynaa wax sidatan oo kale ah,
07:45
which is -- I mean, it's a heck of a lot better than that.
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kaasoo ah--aana filayo inay sidaa ka wanaagsanaan karto,
07:49
But is this really the best we can dream of?
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Laakiin tani ma tahay sida ugu wanaagsan an ku riyoon karo?
07:54
Is this the best we can do?
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Ma tahay sida ugu wanaagsan an samayn karo?
07:56
Or is it possible to find something a little bit more inspiring to work towards?
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Mise waa suurta gal inaan helo hawl kale oo ka yare yididiilo badan?
08:02
And if we think about this,
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Hadaan ka fakaro taas,
08:04
I think it's very clear that there are ways
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Waa cadahay inay jiraan wadiiqooyin
08:08
in which we could change things, not just by eliminating negatives,
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aynu ku badali karo waxyaabahaas, kaliya inagoon waxa tabban ka saarayn,
08:11
but adding positives.
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laaakiin wax togana ku darayna.
08:13
On my wish list, at least, would be:
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Liiskayga rajada, ugu yaraa, wuxu noqonayaa:
08:15
much longer, healthier lives, greater subjective well-being,
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nolo dheer, caafimaad leh, samaan wayn oo toos ah,
08:20
enhanced cognitive capacities, more knowledge and understanding,
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garashada oo kor loo qaaday, cilmi iyo fahan fara badan
08:25
unlimited opportunity for personal growth
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fursado aan xadi lahayn oo koriinka shakhsiga ah
08:27
beyond our current biological limits, better relationships,
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oo ka shisheeya xadkeena biyooliyeed ee ah, xidhiidho wanaagsan,
08:31
an unbounded potential for spiritual, moral
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xadi aan caadi ahayn oo ah horumar ruuxi, mooral
08:33
and intellectual development.
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iyo garaad ba ah.
08:35
If we want to achieve this, what, in the world, would have to change?
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Hadaynu rabno inaan tan ku guulaysano, maxaa loo baahanyahay inay caalamka iska badalaan?
08:43
And this is the answer -- we would have to change.
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Tana waa jawaabta--waan inaan badallaa.
08:48
Not just the world around us, but we, ourselves.
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Kaliya maaha caalamka inagu hareeraysan balse , inaga lafteena.
08:51
Not just the way we think about the world, but the way we are -- our very biology.
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Kaliya maaha sida an caalamka u aragno, balse sida aynu nahay--biyoolijakadeena.
08:55
Human nature would have to change.
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Dabeecadane aadane waa inay is bedeshaa.
08:57
Now, when we think about changing human nature,
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Hada, waa inaan ka fekeraa badalida dabeecada aadanaha.
08:59
the first thing that comes to mind
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waxa ina hor imanaya markaba waa
09:01
are these human modification technologies --
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tiknoolijayada bedelida biniaadamka--
09:05
growth hormone therapy, cosmetic surgery,
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daawaynta dheecanka koriinka, qaliinka qurxinta,
09:07
stimulants like Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants,
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cariyayaasha Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants,
09:10
anabolic steroids, artificial hearts.
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istroydhada anobooliga, wadnayaasha samayska ah.
09:12
It's a pretty pathetic list.
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Waa liis caloolyow leh.
09:15
They do great things for a few people
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Wax badan way u tari karaan dad yar
09:17
who suffer from some specific condition,
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kuwaaso ka cabanaya xaalado gaar ah,
09:19
but for most people, they don't really transform
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laakiin dadka badankiisa, xaqiiqdii ma bedellaan
09:24
what it is to be human.
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sababta loo noqdo biniaadam.
09:26
And they also all seem a little bit --
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waxayna u yara eegyihiin xoogay--
09:28
most people have this instinct that, well, sure,
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dadka badankiisu inay yara hubaan
09:31
there needs to be anti-depressants for the really depressed people.
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inay jirto baahida anti-depressants u haysata dadka murugaysan.
09:33
But there's a kind of queasiness
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laakiin waxa jira yalaalugo ah
09:35
that these are unnatural in some way.
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in qaababkani aanay si u yare dabicii ahayn.
09:38
It's worth recalling that there are a lot of other
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Waxa muhiima inaan dib u xuusuano waxyaabo farabadan
09:40
modification technologies and enhancement technologies that we use.
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oo tiknoolijayada bedelka iyo kor u qaadista oo aan isticmaalo.
09:43
We have skin enhancements, clothing.
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Waxaan leenahay kor u qaadayaal jidhka ah, dharka.
09:47
As far as I can see, all of you are users of this
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Ilaa inta aan arki karo, dhamaantiin waxaad tihiin isticmaalayashaad
09:51
enhancement technology in this room, so that's a great thing.
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tiknooliyadaa kor uqaadista ah, marka taasi waa arin wanaagsan.
09:56
Mood modifiers have been used from time immemorial --
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Hagaajiyayaasha hiyiga ayaa la isticmaalayay ilaa waqti aan la xusuusan--
09:59
caffeine, alcohol, nicotine, immune system enhancement,
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Kafiin, Alkahool, Nikootiin, kor u qaadayaasha difaaca jidhka,
10:04
vision enhancement, anesthetics --
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kor u qaadayaasha aragga, suuxiyayaasha.
10:06
we take that very much for granted,
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waxan oo dhan hada waan garawsannay
10:08
but just think about how great progress that is --
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laakiin bal u yara u fiirso taasi sida ay u tahay horumar wayn--
10:12
like, having an operation before anesthetics was not fun.
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sida waqtigii aan suuxiyaha la haysan uu qaliinku ahaa.
10:16
Contraceptives, cosmetics and brain reprogramming techniques --
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Dhalma-joojiyaasha, qurxinta iyo farsamada barnaamijaynta maskaxda--
10:22
that sounds ominous,
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taaso u yara muuqata cibaaro,
10:24
but the distinction between what is a technology --
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laakiin kalasoocida u dhaxaysa tiknoolajiyada-
10:28
a gadget would be the archetype --
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sida mashiinada yaryar--
10:30
and other ways of changing and rewriting human nature is quite subtle.
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iyo sida loo badali karo dibna loogu qori karo dabeecada biniaadamka oo ah mid qarsoon.
10:34
So if you think about what it means to learn arithmetic or to learn to read,
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Hadaba hadaad doonayso inaad ka fekerto waxay tahay sida loo barto ariitmaatika ama sida wax loo qoro loona akhriyo,
10:38
you're actually, literally rewriting your own brain.
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xaqiiqdii markaas, asal ahaan waxaad dib u qoraysa maskaxdaadii.
10:41
You're changing the microstructure of your brain as you go along.
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Waxaad badalaysaa qaab hoosaadka maskaxdaada markaad socotidba.
10:45
So in a broad sense, we don't need to think about technology
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Marka qaab balaadhan, uma baahnin inaan uga fekero tiknoolijayada
10:48
as only little gadgets, like these things here,
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keliya inay yihiin mashiino yaryar,
10:50
but even institutions and techniques,
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laakiin waa inay noqdaan qaabab, farsamooyin,
10:54
psychological methods and so forth.
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xitaa kuwa qaabab nafsi ah iwm.
10:56
Forms of organization can have a profound impact on human nature.
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Qaab dhismeedka (urur) wuxu saamayn qoto dheer ku yeelan karaa dabeecada insaanka.
11:01
Looking ahead, there is a range of technologies
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Hadaan sii saadalino waxa jira tiknoolijiyad farabadan
11:03
that are almost certain to be developed sooner or later.
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kuwaasoo ay cadahay in la soo saari doono waqtiyada soo socda.
11:06
We are very ignorant about what the time scale for these things are,
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Ma ogin waxyaabaha iyo qadarka ay koobsan karaan waxyaabani
11:10
but they all are consistent with everything we know
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laakiin wax kastoo aynu garan karo waa soo gali karaan
11:12
about physical laws, laws of chemistry, etc.
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sida xeerarka fisiska, sharciga, kimistariga, iwm.
11:16
It's possible to assume,
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Waxa suurtagal ah in la qiyaaso,
11:18
setting aside a possibility of catastrophe,
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iyadoo dhinac layska dhigayo suurtagalnimada masiibo dhacda,
11:21
that sooner or later we will develop all of these.
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in waqtiga dhow dhamaan waxyaabahan aan soo saari doono.
11:24
And even just a couple of these would be enough
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Ugu yaraana koox kuwaas ka tirsan ayaa ku filaan doonta
11:27
to transform the human condition.
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inay bedesho dabeecada insaanka.
11:29
So let's look at some of the dimensions of human nature
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Hada aan yare eegno docaha abuurta biniaadamka
11:34
that seem to leave room for improvement.
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taasoo kor u qaadid u baahan.
11:37
Health span is a big and urgent thing,
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Cimriga caafimaadka waa baahi degdeg ah oo wayn,
11:39
because if you're not alive,
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waayo hadii aanad nolol haysan,
11:41
then all the other things will be to little avail.
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wixii kaleba waa waxaan naf lahayn
11:44
Intellectual capacity -- let's take that box,
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Heerka garaadka--aan qodobkaa soo qaadano,
11:46
which falls into a lot of different sub-categories:
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kaasoo isuu kalla baxaya qodob hoosaadyo kala duwan:
11:51
memory, concentration, mental energy, intelligence, empathy.
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xusuusta,dhuuxida, tamarta maskaxda, garaadka, fahanka.
11:54
These are really great things.
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Dhamaan waxyaabahaasi waa arimo waawayn.
11:56
Part of the reason why we value these traits
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Qayb kamid ah sababta ay waxyaabahani qiimaha inuugu leeyihiin
11:58
is that they make us better at competing with other people --
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waa iyagoo ina siiyo awood anaa kula barateno dadka kale--
12:02
they're positional goods.
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waa hanti waxtar leh.
12:04
But part of the reason --
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laakiin qayb ka mid ah sababta--
12:06
and that's the reason why we have ethical ground for pursuing these --
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taasina waa sababta aynu u haysano sees akhlaaqi ah oo inoo ogolanaaya wadida arinka--
12:10
is that they're also intrinsically valuable.
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taasina waa faaiidadeeda heerka sare ah.
12:13
It's just better to be able to understand more of the world around you
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Waxa wanaagsan inaad awoodid inaad aad u fahanto aduunka kugu wareegsan,
12:17
and the people that you are communicating with,
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dadka aad la xidhiidhaysid,
12:19
and to remember what you have learned.
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iyo inaad xusuusatid wixii aad ka baratay.
12:23
Modalities and special faculties.
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Noocyada iyo qeybaha gaarka ah.
12:25
Now, the human mind is not a single unitary information processor,
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Haa, maskaxda biniaadamku maaha iskudubaride macluumaad oo keliyaale ah,
12:30
but it has a lot of different, special, evolved modules
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laakiin waxay leedahay qayba kala duwan oo ku shaqa leh
12:34
that do specific things for us.
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inay inoo qabtaan waxyaabo gaar ah.
12:36
If you think about what we normally take as giving life a lot of its meaning --
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Kasoo qaad waxyaabaha aynu aaminsanahay inay nolosha micna u yeelaan--
12:40
music, humor, eroticism, spirituality, aesthetics,
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muusiga, kaftanka, shahwada, ruuxiyada, quruxda,
12:44
nurturing and caring, gossip, chatting with people --
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daryeelka, dhowrista, xanta, la sheekaysiga dadka kale--
12:49
all of these, very likely, are enabled by a special circuitry
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dhamaan waxyaabahaas oo dhan wax isku duba rida qaybo gaar ah
12:53
that we humans have,
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oo biniaadamku leeyahay,
12:55
but that you could have another intelligent life form that lacks these.
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laakiin waxaad yeelan kartaa qaab nololeed kale oo waxgarad ah oo waxaasoo dhan la'.
12:58
We're just lucky that we have the requisite neural machinery
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Waan nasiib badanahay inaan leenahay mashiinka niyuuroon ahaaneed ee loo baahanyahay
13:01
to process music and to appreciate it and enjoy it.
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si loo nidaamiyo muusikada kadibna aan ugu muraaqoono.
13:05
All of these would enable, in principle -- be amenable to enhancement.
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Dhamaan kuwani waxay awood u siiye u yihiin, mabda ahaan ku qancida horumarinta.
13:08
Some people have a better musical ability
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Dadka qaar waxay leeyihiin awood muusikeed oo wanaagsan
13:10
and ability to appreciate music than others have.
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iyo awood lagu mahadiyo muusikada marka kuwa kale loo eego.
13:12
It's also interesting to think about what other things are --
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Waxa kale oo cajiiba in laga fekero waxa waxyaabaha kale yihiin--
13:15
so if these all enabled great values,
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hadii dhaman waxyabahis qiima fara badan keensadeen,
13:19
why should we think that evolution has happened to provide us
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maxaynu u filaynaa in tadawur inagu dhacay si uu waxas oo dhan inoo siiyo
13:22
with all the modalities we would need to engage
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iyadoo leh dhamaan qaybihii aan u baahnayn inaan kula falgalo
13:25
with other values that there might be?
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qiimaysanyaasha kalle ee jiir kara?
13:27
Imagine a species
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Ka feker noole
13:29
that just didn't have this neural machinery for processing music.
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aan lahayn wadaha nuyuuroon ee haga muusikada.
13:33
And they would just stare at us with bafflement
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Way inagu dhaygagi lahaayeen iyagoo yaabban
13:36
when we spend time listening to a beautiful performance,
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waqtig aan dhagaysanayno qaraacis muusig oo qurux badan
13:40
like the one we just heard -- because of people making stupid movements,
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sida ka aynu hada maqalay--dadka samaynayaa dhaqdhaaqyada doqoniimada ah,
13:42
and they would be really irritated and wouldn't see what we were up to.
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markaa way xanaaqi lahaayen iyagoo aan garanayn waxa aynu samaynayno.
13:45
But maybe they have another faculty, something else
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Laakiin waxa laga yaabba inay leeyihiin qaybo kale, waxyaabo kale
13:48
that would seem equally irrational to us,
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taaso inoogu muuqata si lamid ah mid aan caqli gal ahayn,
13:51
but they actually tap into some great possible value there.
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laakiin xaqiiqdii waxay u leeyihiin qiime wayn oo suurtagal ah.
13:54
But we are just literally deaf to that kind of value.
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Laakiin waynu ka dhaga la'anahay qiimahas noocaas ah.
13:58
So we could think of adding on different,
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Marka waxaynu ka fekeri karaa ku darida
14:00
new sensory capacities and mental faculties.
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awood dareeme oo cusub iyo awood maskaxeed.
14:04
Bodily functionality and morphology and affective self-control.
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Jidh ahaan shaqaynaysa, qaab ahaan wax tar maamul shakhsiyadeed leh.
14:09
Greater subjective well-being.
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Saamayn wanaag oo wayn.
14:11
Be able to switch between relaxation and activity --
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Awood u yeelasho u kala dabqaadid nasasho iyo shaqo--
14:14
being able to go slow when you need to do that, and to speed up.
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awood u yeelasho markaad rabtid gaabi markaad rabtidna dheeree.
14:18
Able to switch back and forth more easily
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Awood u yeelasho u kala dabqaadida si fudud dib iyo hore.
14:20
would be a neat thing to be able to do --
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wax toosan bay noqon lahayd hadii la awood--
14:22
easier to achieve the flow state,
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si fudud in loogu guulaysto xaalada irmaanaanta
14:24
when you're totally immersed in something you are doing.
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marka aad xoog u dhex gashid wax aad qabanaysid.
14:28
Conscientiousness and sympathy.
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garashada iyo fahanka.
14:30
The ability to -- it's another interesting application
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awood u yeelashada--iyana waa qaab kale oo xiisa leh
14:33
that would have large social ramification, perhaps.
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taasoo yeelan karta faaiido kale oo bulsheed, suurtagal ahaan.
14:36
If you could actually choose to preserve your romantic attachments to one person,
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Hadaad awood u leedahay inaad dooran kartid ilaalinta dabarka jacayl ee qof kuu haya,
14:42
undiminished through time,
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kaasoo aan isla badalayn waqtiga,
14:44
so that wouldn't have to -- love would never have to fade if you didn't want it to.
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marka waxaa dhacaysa--inaan jacaylku isbedelin ilaa iyo inta ad ka rabto.
14:49
That's probably not all that difficult.
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Taso suurtagal ahaan aad uma adka.
14:52
It might just be a simple hormone or something that could do this.
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Waxa laga yaabba inay ku xidhantahay hoormoon ama wax kale oo shaqadan qaban kara.
14:57
It's been done in voles.
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waxa lagu sameeyay jiirka.
15:01
You can engineer a prairie vole to become monogamous
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Waxaad farsamayn kartaa jiir godeedka si u noqdo hal xaasleh
15:04
when it's naturally polygamous.
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iyadoo dabci ahaan uu xaas badane yahay.
15:06
It's just a single gene.
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Kaliya waa hal hida-side keliya.
15:08
Might be more complicated in humans, but perhaps not that much.
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Laga yaabe in ay biniaadamka yare ka kanaato laakiin saa uma badna.
15:10
This is the last picture that I want to --
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Tani waa sawirka ugu danbeeyay ee aan raba
15:13
now we've got to use the laser pointer.
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aan isticaamlo tilmaamaha laysarka.
15:16
A possible mode of being here would be a way of life --
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Dareen suurtagal ah oo halkan lagu tagaa waxay noqon kartaa dariiq nololeled-
15:19
a way of being, experiencing, thinking, seeing,
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qaab jiritan, la kulmid, ka fekerid, arkid
15:23
interacting with the world.
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la falgelid aduunka.
15:25
Down here in this little corner, here, we have the little sub-space
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Halkan hoose waxa ah koone yar, halkan, waxan haysanaa baaxad hoosad yar
15:30
of this larger space that is accessible to human beings --
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oo ka tirsan baaxada wayn ee biniaadamka suurtagalka u ah--
15:34
beings with our biological capacities.
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inagoo leh awoodeheena biyooloji.
15:37
It's a part of the space that's accessible to animals;
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Waa qaybta u furan xayaawanka
15:40
since we are animals, we are a subset of that.
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maadaamo aan xayaawan nahayna, waxaynu nahay qaybhoosaad taa ka tirsan.
15:43
And then you can imagine some enhancements of human capacities.
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Markaasna waxaad ka fekeri kartaa horumarin awoodaha biniaadamka.
15:47
There would be different modes of being you could experience
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Waxa jira noocyo kala duwan oo jiritaan oo aad arki kartid
15:50
if you were able to stay alive for, say, 200 years.
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kasoo qaad hadad awoodid inaad noolaatid, dhehba, 200 sano
15:53
Then you could live sorts of lives and accumulate wisdoms
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Markaa waxaad noolaan kartaa nololo kala duwan, khibradana waad kasban kartaa
15:57
that are just not possible for humans as we currently are.
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taasoo aan suurtagal u ahayn biniaadamka hada nool
16:00
So then, you move off to this larger sphere of "human +,"
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Markaa, waxaad u dhaqaaqday qaybta wayn ee ''biniaadam +''
16:04
and you could continue that process and eventually
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waxadna sii wadi kartaa habkaas ilaa aad ugu danbayn
16:07
explore a lot of this larger space of possible modes of being.
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heshid qaybaha sii balaadhan ee qaababka jiritaan ee suurtagalka ah.
16:11
Now, why is that a good thing to do?
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Hadaba, maxay arintaasi u tahay wax wanaagsan oo in la qabto istaahisha?
16:13
Well, we know already that in this little human circle there,
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Hagaag, waxaan ognahay in meertadan biniaadam ee yar ee halkan
16:17
there are these enormously wonderful and worthwhile modes of being --
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inay jiraan qaababkaa nololeed ee cajiibka iyo qiimaha badan ee jiritaan--
16:21
human life at its best is wonderful.
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nolosha biniaadmku markay ugu cajiibsantahay.
16:24
We have no reason to believe that within this much, much larger space
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Ma jirto sabab ina aaminsiinaysa in gudaha baaxada wayni
16:29
there would not also be extremely worthwhile modes of being,
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aanay ku jririn sidoo kale qaabab nololeed kale oo qiima leh,
16:33
perhaps ones that would be way beyond our wildest ability
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suurtagal ahaan mid ka shisheys awoodeena ugu saraysa
16:39
even to imagine or dream about.
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ee an wax ku malawaalo ama ugu riyoono.
16:41
And so, to fix this third problem,
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Hada, si loo xaliyo dhibaatadan sadexaad,
16:43
I think we need -- slowly, carefully, with ethical wisdom and constraint --
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waxan filayaa inaan u baahanahay- si degan, taxadar leh, akhlaaqiyedkeeda iyo xigmadeedana leh--
16:49
develop the means that enable us to go out in this larger space and explore it
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inaan horumarino qaabkii awood inoo siin inaan baaxadaa wayn aan galo, sahamino,
16:54
and find the great values that might hide there.
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soona helo qiimaha wayn ee halkaa ku qarsoonaan kara.
16:56
Thanks.
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Mahadsanidiin.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nick Bostrom - PhilosopherNick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us?
Why you should listen
Philosopher Nick Bostrom envisioned a future full of human enhancement, nanotechnology and machine intelligence long before they became mainstream concerns. From his famous simulation argument -- which identified some striking implications of rejecting the Matrix-like idea that humans are living in a computer simulation -- to his work on existential risk, Bostrom approaches both the inevitable and the speculative using the tools of philosophy, probability theory, and scientific analysis.
Since 2005, Bostrom has led the Future of Humanity Institute, a research group of mathematicians, philosophers and scientists at Oxford University tasked with investigating the big picture for the human condition and its future. He has been referred to as one of the most important thinkers of our age.
Nick was honored as one of Foreign Policy's 2015 Global Thinkers .
His recent book Superintelligence advances the ominous idea that “the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”
Nick Bostrom | Speaker | TED.com