14:26
TED2013

Andrew McAfee: What will future jobs look like?

Andrew McAfee: Si do ngjajne punet e se ardhmes?

Filmed:

Ekonomisti Andrew McAfee sugjeron se, po, ndoshta, androidet do na marin punet -- ose te pakten ato lloj punesh qe ne njohim tashme. Ne kete fjalim largpames, ai mendon permes asaj se si do ngjajne punet e se ardhmes, dhe si te edukojme brezin e ardhshem per ti mbajtur ata.

- Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio

The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
Shkrimtarja George Eliot
na terhoqi vemendjen se,
00:12
among all forms of mistake,
nga te gjitha format e gabimit
00:15
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
profesia eshte me e lira.
00:17
The person that we would all acknowledge
Personi qe te gjithe do njihnim
00:19
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
si homologu i saj i shekullit te 20-te,
Yogi Berra, ra dakort me te.
00:21
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
Ai tha, "Eshte e veshtire te parashikosh,
00:25
especially about the future."
sidomos mbi te ardhmen."
00:27
I'm going to ignore their cautions
Une do anashkaloj paralajmerimet e tyre
00:30
and make one very specific forecast.
dhe do bej nje parashikim shume specifik.
00:32
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
Ne boten qe ne po krijojme shume shpejt,
00:34
we're going to see more and more things
do shohim gjithnje e me shume gjera
00:36
that look like science fiction,
qe ngjajne me fantashkence,
00:38
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
dhe shume pak gjera qe ngjajne me pune.
00:40
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
Makinat tona shume shpejt do drejtohen vete
00:43
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
qe do te thote se do na duhen me
pak shofera kamioni.
00:46
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
Do lidhim Siri me Watson
00:48
and use that to automate a lot of the work
dhe ta perdorim ate per te automatizuar
shume pune
00:51
that's currently done by customer service reps
qe momentalisht behen nga
perfaqesues te sherbimit te klientit
00:53
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
dhe ekspert dhe diagnostikues,
00:55
and we're already taking R2D2,
dhe tashme po marim R2D2,
00:58
painting him orange, and putting him to work
te lyer portokalli, dhe e veme ne pune
01:00
carrying shelves around warehouses,
per te mbajtur rafte ne magazina,
01:04
which means we need a lot fewer people
qe do te thote se na duhen me pak njerez
01:06
to be walking up and down those aisles.
per te ecur larte e poshte
neper ato korridore.
01:08
Now, for about 200 years,
Per rreth 200 vjet,
01:10
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
njerezit kane thene ekzaktesisht
ate cka po ju them une--
01:14
the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
mosha e papunesise teknologjike eshte afer--
01:16
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
duke filluar me Ludditet qe
shkaterruan tezgjahet ne Britani
01:19
just about two centuries ago,
rreth dy shekuj me pare,
01:22
and they have been wrong.
dhe eshte e gabuar.
01:23
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
Ekonomite tona ne boten
e zhvilliuar kane arritur
01:25
on something pretty close to full employment.
ne dicka qe ngjason me punesim te plote.
01:28
Which brings up a critical question:
E cila sjell nje pyetje kritike:
01:30
Why is this time different, if it really is?
Pse eshte ndryshe kete radhe,
nese eshte vertet?
01:32
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
Arsyeja pse eshte ndryshe
eshte sepse vitet e fundit
01:35
our machines have started demonstrating skills
makinerite tona kane filluar
te demostrojne aftesi
01:38
they have never, ever had before:
qe nuk i kane pasur kurre me pare:
01:40
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
per te kuptuar, te folur, te degjuar, te shikuar,
01:43
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
per tu pergjigjur, te shkruar, dhe
jane ne kerkim te aftesive te reja.
01:46
For example, mobile humanoid robots
Per shembull, robotet humanoid te levizshem
01:50
are still incredibly primitive,
jane akoma teper primitiv,
01:53
but the research arm of the Defense Department
por sektori i kerkimit
ne Departamentin e Mbrojtjes
01:55
just launched a competition
sapo hapi nje konkurs
01:57
to have them do things like this,
per te arritur qe ata te bejne gjera si keto,
01:58
and if the track record is any guide,
dhe nese gjykojme
nga publikimet e meparshme,
02:00
this competition is going to be successful.
ky konkurs do jete i suksesshem.
02:02
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
Kur shikoj perreth, mendoj se
nuk eshte aspak e larget dita
02:05
when we're going to have androids
kur androidet
02:08
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
do te bejne shumicen e punes
qe ne bejme tani.
02:10
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
Ne po ndertojme nje bote ku do te kete
02:13
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
shume e me shume teknologji
dhe pak e me pak pune.
02:17
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
Eshte nje bote qe Erik Brynjolfsson
dhe une e quajme
02:21
"the new machine age."
"Epoka e re e makines."
02:23
The thing to keep in mind is that
Dicka per tu mbajtur ne mendje eshte se
02:24
this is absolutely great news.
keto jane absolutisht lajme te mira.
02:27
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
Keto jane lajmet me te mira ekonomike
ne planet ne kete moment.
02:29
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
Jo se ka shume kompeticion, apo jo?
02:32
This is the best economic news we have these days
Keto jane lajmet me te mira
ekonomike keto dite
02:36
for two main reasons.
per dy arsye kryesore.
02:38
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
E para, eshte progresi teknologjik
ai qe na lejon ne
02:39
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
te vazhdojme kete vrap mahnites
ne te cilen ndodhemi
02:42
where output goes up over time,
aty ku prodhimi rritet gjate kohes,
02:46
while at the same time, prices go down,
ndersa cmimet bien,
02:49
and volume and quality just continue to explode.
dhe sasia dhe cilesia thjesht
vazhdojne te shperthejne.
02:52
Now, some people look at this and talk about
Disa njerez e shohin kete si
02:56
shallow materialism,
materialismin e ceket,
02:58
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
por kjo eshte absolutisht menyra
e gabuar per ta pare ate.
03:00
This is abundance, which is exactly
Ky eshte bollek, qe eshte saktesisht
03:02
what we want our economic system to provide.
ajo qe duam qe te siguroje sistemi ekonomik.
03:05
The second reason that the new machine age
Arsyeja e dyte, qe epoka e re makines
03:08
is such great news is that, once the androids
eshte kaq lajm i mire eshte sepse,
sapo androidet
03:11
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
te fillojne te kryejne pune,
nuk do na duhet me ti bejme ne
03:14
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
dhe do te lirohemi nga angaria
dhe punet e rendomta.
03:17
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
Kur e diskutoj kete me miqte e mi
03:21
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
ne Cambridge dhe ne Silicon Valley, ata thone,
03:23
"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
"Fantastike. Nuk ka me angari,
nuk ka me pune te rendomta.
03:25
This gives us the chance to imagine
Kjo na jep mundesine te imagjinojme
03:27
an entirely different kind of society,
nje shoqeri komplet ndryshe,
03:29
a society where the creators and the discoverers
nje shoqeri ku krijuesit dhe zbuluesit
03:32
and the performers and the innovators
dhe performuesit dhe novatoret
03:35
come together with their patrons and their financiers
bashkohen me klientet dhe financuesit e tyre
03:36
to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
per te diskutuar mbi subjekte te ndryshme,
03:40
provoke each other."
frymezojne dhe konfrontojne njeri tjetrin."
03:43
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
Eshte nje shoqeri, e cila ngjason
shume me Konferencen TED.
03:45
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
Dhe ka nje te vertete te madhe ketu.
03:49
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
Po shohim nje lulezim te mahnitshem.
03:52
In a world where it is just about as easy
Ne nje bote ku eshte po aq e thjeshte
03:55
to generate an object as it is to print a document,
te prodhosh nje objekt
apo te printosh nje dokument,
03:57
we have amazing new possibilities.
kemi mundesi te reja te mahnitshme.
04:00
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
Njerezit te cilet kane qene
mjeshter dhe amatore
04:02
are now makers, and they're responsible
tashme jane krijues, dhe jane pergjegjes
04:06
for massive amounts of innovation.
per nje numer te madh risish.
04:08
And artists who were formerly constrained
Artiste qe me pare kane qene te limituar
04:10
can now do things that were never, ever possible
tashme mund te bejne gjera qe
nuk kane qene kurre te mundshme
04:13
for them before.
me pare per ata.
04:16
So this is a time of great flourishing,
Pra kjo eshte nje kohe lulezimi
04:18
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
dhe sa me shume shoh perreth,
me shume bindem
04:20
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
qe citati i fizikantit Freeman Dyson,
04:23
is not hyperbole at all.
nuk eshte aspak hiperbolik.
04:26
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
Kjo eshte thjesht nje deklarate
e qarte mbi fakte.
04:28
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
Jemi ne mes te nje periudhe mahnitese.
04:31
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
("Teknologjia eshte nje dhurate nga Zoti. Pas dhurates se jetes eshte dhurata me e bukur nga te gjitha dhuratat e Zotit. Eshte nena e civilizimit, e artit dhe shkences." Freeman Dyson)
04:32
Which brings up another great question:
Qe sjell nje tjeter pyetje te madhe:
04:33
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
Cfare mund te shkoje keq ne kete epoke e re te makines?
04:36
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
Apo jo? Mire, mjaft, perparon, shko ne shtepi.
04:39
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
Do perballemi me dy seri sfidash te veshtira
04:42
as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
ndersa futemi me thelle
ne te ardhmen qe po krijojme.
04:45
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
Te parat jane ekonomite,
dhe qe permblidhen shume mire
04:48
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
ne nje histori fiktive rreth komunikimit
04:51
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
ndermjet Henry Ford II dhe Walter Reuther,
04:54
who was the head of the auto workers union.
i cili ishte kryetar i sindikates se
punetoreve te automobilave.
04:57
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
Po vizitonin nje nga fabrikat e reja moderne
05:00
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
dhe Ford me shaka kthehet
nga Reuther dhe i thote,
05:02
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
"Hej Walter, si do ti besh keta robote
05:05
to pay union dues?"
te paguajne detyrimet e sindikates?"
05:07
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
Dhe Reuther ja kthen, "Hej Henry,
05:09
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
si do ti besh ata te blejne makina?"
05:11
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
Problemi i Reuther ne ate anektode
05:15
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
ishte se eshte e veshtire te ofrosh
punen tende ne nje ekonomi
05:18
that's full of machines,
e cila eshte e mbushur me makineri,
05:22
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
dhe kete e shohim shume qarte
neper stastistika.
05:24
If you look over the past couple decades
Nese do kthehesh te shohesh
disa dekada perpara
05:26
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
ne kthimet e kapitalit --
e thene ndryshe, perfitimet e korporatave --
05:29
we see them going up,
i shohim ne ngritje,
05:32
and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
dhe shohim qe tani ato jane
me te larta se ne te gjitha koherat.
05:34
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
Nese shohim ne kthimet mbi punen,
ose ndryshe
05:36
total wages paid out in the economy,
paga totale te paguara ne ekonomi,
05:39
we see them at an all-time low
i shohim si me te ultat e te gjithe koherave
05:41
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
dhe i jane drejtuar shume shpejt
drejtimit te kundert.
05:43
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
Pra keto jane lajme te keqija per Reuther.
05:46
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
Duket sikur mund te jene
lajme te mira per Ford,
05:48
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
por realisht nuk jane. Nese doni te shisni
05:52
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
sasi te medha te mirash materiale
te shtrenjta tek njerezit,
05:54
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
realisht ju doni nje klase te mesme
te madhe, stabel dhe te suksesshme.
05:57
We have had one of those in America
E kemi pasur nje te tille ne Amerike
06:01
for just about the entire postwar period.
per gjithe periudhen pas lufte.
06:03
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
Por klasa e mesme eshte qartazi
ne rrezik te larte tashme.
06:06
We all know a lot of the statistics,
Dihen shume statistika,
06:10
but just to repeat one of them,
por po perseris nje nga ato,
06:12
median income in America has actually gone down
e ardhura mesatare ne Amerike eshte ulur
06:14
over the past 15 years,
per 15 vitet e kaluara
06:17
and we're in danger of getting trapped
dhe jemi ne rrezik te zihemi ne kurth
06:18
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
ne nje cikel vicioz
ku pabarazia dhe polarizimi
06:20
continue to go up over time.
vazhdojne te ngrihen ne lidhje me kohen.
06:24
The societal challenges that come along
Sfidat shoqerore qe vine
06:27
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
me ate lloj pabarazie meritojne vemendje.
06:30
There are a set of societal challenges
Ka nje grup sfidash shoqerore
06:32
that I'm actually not that worried about,
per te cilat nuk shqetesohem shume,
06:34
and they're captured by images like this.
te cilat tregohen ne keto imazhe.
06:36
This is not the kind of societal problem
Ky nuk eshte lloji i problemit shoqeror
06:38
that I am concerned about.
per te cilin shqetesohem.
06:40
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
Nuk na mungojne vizionet anti-utopike
06:42
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
per ate cka ndodh kur makinerite tona
behet te vetedijshme,
06:45
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
dhe vendosin te ngrihen dhe
te kordinojne sulme ndaj nesh.
06:48
I'm going to start worrying about those
Do filloj te shqetesohem per ato
06:51
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
diten qe kompjuteri im
do te njohe printerin tim.
06:53
(Laughter) (Applause)
(Te qeshura) (Duartrokitje)
06:56
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
Pra ky nuk eshte grupi i sfidave per te cilat
ne duhet te shqetesohemi.
07:00
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
Per t'ju treguar llojet e sfidave shoqerore
07:03
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
qe do shfaqen ne epoken e re te makines,
07:06
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
dua t'ju tregoj nje histori per dy punetore
tipik Amerikane.
07:08
And to make them really stereotypical,
Dhe per ti bere ata tipik te vertete,
07:12
let's make them both white guys.
le t'i supozojme te dy te bardhe.
07:13
And the first one is a college-educated
I pari eshte nje i edukuar ne universitet
07:15
professional, creative type, manager,
profesionist, tip krijues, drejtues,
07:19
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
inxhinier, doktor, avokat, ky lloj punonjesi.
07:22
We're going to call him "Ted."
Do ta quajme "Ted."
07:25
He's at the top of the American middle class.
Ai eshte ne maje te klases se mesme
Amerikane.
07:28
His counterpart is not college-educated
Homologu i tij nuk eshte i edukuar
ne universitet
07:30
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
dhe punon si nje punetor,
punon si nje nepunes,
07:33
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
ben pune te nivelit te ulet ne zyra ose
te klases punetore qe kryen pune manuale.
07:36
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
Do ta quajme ate person "Bill."
07:39
And if you go back about 50 years,
Dhe nese kthehesh pas rreth 50 vjet,
07:41
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
Bill dhe Ted benin jete shume te ngjashme.
07:44
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
Per shembull, ne 1960 kishte
shume mundesi qe te dy
07:47
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
te kishin pune me orar te plote,
nga 40 ore ne jave.
07:50
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
Por sic ka dokumentuar edhe
studiuesi social Charles Murray,
07:53
as we started to automate the economy,
nderkohe qe filluam te automatizojme
ekonomine,
07:57
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
dhe ne 1960 sapo kishte filluar qe
bizneset te perdornin kompjutera,
07:59
as we started to progressively inject technology
nderkohe qe filluam progresivisht
te injektojme teknologjine
08:04
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
dhe automatizimin dhe dixhitalizimin
ne ekonomi,
08:07
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
pasurite e Bill dhe Ted ndryshuan shume.
08:09
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
Gjate kesaj kornize kohe, Ted ka vazhduar
08:12
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
te mbaje nje pune me orar te plote.
Por jo Bill.
08:14
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
Ne shume raste, Billi ka qene pa pune fare,
08:17
and Ted very rarely has.
kurse Ted shume rralle.
08:21
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
Gjate kohes, martesa e Ted ka qene
plotesisht e lumtur.
08:24
Bill's hasn't.
Por jo ajo e Billit.
08:27
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
Femijet e Ted jane rritur ne nje shtepi
me dy prinder,
08:29
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
gje qe s'ndodhi me ata te Billit.
08:32
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
Menyra te tjera si Bill po mbetet
jashte shoqerise?
08:35
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
S'merr pjese ne votimin
per zgjedhjet presidenciale,
08:38
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
dhe ka filluar te hyje me shpesh ne burg.
08:41
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
Pra nuk mund te them nje histori te gezuar
per keto prirje shoqerore,
08:45
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
dhe te cilet nuk tregojne asnje shenje
per te rikthyer veten.
08:49
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
Jane gjithashtu te verteta, pavaresisht
te kujt grupi etnik
08:52
or demographic group we look at,
apo demografik qe shohim,
08:55
and they're actually getting so severe
dhe realisht po rendesohen me shume
08:57
that they're in danger of overwhelming
saqe jane ne rrezik per derrmim
08:59
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
edhe pas progresit te mahnitshem qe
beme me Levizjen e te Drejtave Civile.
09:00
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
Dhe ajo cka miqte e mi ne Silicon Valley
09:04
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
dhe Cambridge po vene re,
eshte se ata jane Ted.
09:07
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
Po jetojne keto jete shume
te angazhuara, produktive,
09:12
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
dhe i kane te gjitha perfitimet lidhur me to,
09:15
while Bill is leading a very different life.
ndersa Bill po jeton nje jete shume ndryshe.
09:18
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
Jane te dy deshmi te saktesise se Voltaire
09:20
when he talked about the benefits of work,
kur fliste per perfitimet e punes,
09:22
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
dhe per faktin qe na shpeton ne nga
jo nje por tre te keqija te medha.
09:25
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
("Puna e shpeton njeriun nga tre te keqija te medha: merzitja, vesi dhe nevoja." - Voltaire)
09:28
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
Pra me keto sfida, cfare bejme ndaj tyre?
09:29
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
Skenari ekonomik eshte cuditerisht i qarte,
09:32
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
cuditerisht i hapur, sidomos
ne terma afatshkurter.
09:35
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
Robotet nuk do na marin te gjithe punet
per nja dy vjet,
09:38
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
pra skenari klasik Econ 101 do funksionoje
shume mire:
09:41
Encourage entrepreneurship,
Inkurajoni siperrmarresin,
09:46
double down on infrastructure,
investoni ne infrastrukture,
09:48
and make sure we're turning out people
dhe sigurohuni qe sistemi i edukimit
09:50
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
te nxjerre njerez me aftesite e duhura.
09:52
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
Por ne afagjate, nese po shkojme
drejt nje ekonomie
09:55
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
qe eshte e rende ne teknologji
dhe e lehte ne fuqi punetore,
09:58
and we are, then we have to consider
qe eshte e vertete, atehere
duhet te marim parasysh
10:01
some more radical interventions,
disa nderhyrje me radikale,
10:04
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
per shembull, dicka si garantimin
e te ardhurave minimale.
10:05
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
Kjo ndoshta do te merzise disa nga ju,
10:09
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
sepse idea shoqerizohet me krahun
ekstrem te se majtes
10:12
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
dhe me skema radikale
per rishperndarjen e pasurise.
10:16
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
Kam bere nje studim
te vogel mbi kete nocion,
10:19
and it might calm some folk down to know that
dhe mund te qetesoje
disa njerez duke ditur se
10:21
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
idea e nje garancie
mbi te ardhurat minimale neto
10:24
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
eshte mbrojtur nga
ajo mase shkumuese socialiste
10:26
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon
dhe Milton Friedman.
10:30
And if you find yourself worried
Dhe nese e gjeni veten duke u shqetesuar
10:35
that something like a guaranteed income
se dicka si te ardhurat e garantuara
10:37
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
do mbyse udhen tone drejt suksesit
10:40
and make us kind of complacent,
dhe te na beje te vetekenaqur,
10:42
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
mund te jeni te interesuar te dini
se levizshmeria sociale,
10:44
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
nje nga gjerat mbi te cilet ne krenohemi
ne Shtetet e Bashkuara,
10:47
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
eshte tani me e ulet se sa ne shtetet
veriore Europiane
10:50
that have these very generous social safety nets.
te cilat kane ato sistemet sociale
te sigurta e bujare.
10:53
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
Pra skenari ekonomik eshte aktualisht
shume i hapur.
10:56
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
Ai shoqeror eshte shume me sfidues.
10:59
I don't know what the playbook is
Une nuk e di cili eshte skenari
11:02
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
per ta bere Bill te angazhohet dhe
te qendroje i angazhuar gjate jetes se tij.
11:04
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
Por di qe edukimi eshte nje pjese
shume e madhe e saj.
11:08
I witnessed this firsthand.
Jam deshmitar i kesaj.
11:11
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
Kam bere shkollen Montessori
ne vitet e para te edukimit tim,
11:12
and what that education taught me
dhe ajo qe mesova
11:16
is that the world is an interesting place
eshte se bota eshte nje vend interesant
11:18
and my job is to go explore it.
dhe puna ime eshte ta eksploroj ate.
11:20
The school stopped in third grade,
Shkolla mbaroi ne klasen e trete,
11:22
so then I entered the public school system,
dhe une hyra ne nje shkolle publike,
11:24
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
dhe kisha ndjesine sikur
me kishin derguar ne Gulag.
11:26
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
Tani me pas kur e mendoj,
e di se detyra ishte
11:30
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
te me pergatisnin per jeten
si nje nepunes ose nje punetor,
11:33
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
por ne ate kohe dukesh
sikur puna e tyre ishte
11:36
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
te me merziste deri ne nenshtrim ndaj
asaj qe po ndodhte rreth meje.
11:38
We have to do better than this.
Duhet te bejme me shume se aq.
11:42
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
Nuk mund te vazhdojme te kthehemi ne Bill.
11:43
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
Po shohim disa filiza jeshile
se gjerat po permiresohen.
11:47
We see technology deeply impacting education
Shohim teknologjine
e cila influencon thelle edukimin
11:49
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
dhe angazhon njerezit,
duke filluar nga nxenesit me te rinj
11:52
up to our oldest ones.
deri tek me te vjetrit.
11:55
We see very prominent business voices telling us
Shohim disa zera shume
spikates te cilet na thone
11:57
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
se duhet te rimendojme disa nga gjerat
qe po ruajme per ca kohe.
11:59
And we see very serious and sustained
Dhe shohim perpjekje serioze
e te qendrueshme
12:02
and data-driven efforts to understand
te bazuara ne te dhena per te kuptuar
12:05
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
si te nderhyjme ne disa nga komunitetet
me shqetesuese qe kemi.
12:07
So the green shoots are out there.
Pra filizat jeshile jane dukur tashme.
12:11
I don't want to pretend for a minute
Nuk po pretendoj per asnje moment
12:13
that what we have is going to be enough.
se ajo cka kemi do jete mjaftueshem.
12:15
We're facing very tough challenges.
Po perballemi me sfida shume te ashpra.
12:17
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
Per te dhene nje shembull, ekzistojne
me perafersi pese milion Amerikane
12:19
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
te cilet jane te papune
per te pakten gjashte muaj.
12:22
We're not going to fix things for them
Nuk do ti riparojme gjerat per ta
12:25
by sending them back to Montessori.
duke i derguar ata mbrapsht
ne shkollen Montessori.
12:26
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
Dhe shqetesimi im me i madh
eshte se po krijojme nje bote
12:28
where we're going to have glittering technologies
ku do te kemi teknologji vezelluese
12:31
embedded in kind of a shabby society
te ngulitura ne nje shoqeri te lene pas dore
12:33
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
dhe te mbeshtetur nga ekonomi
e cila gjeneron pabarazi
12:36
instead of opportunity.
ne vend te mundesive.
12:39
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
Por realisht une nuk mendoj
se ne do te bejme ate.
12:40
I think we're going to do something a lot better
Une mendoj se do bejme dicka shume me mire
12:43
for one very straightforward reason:
per nje arsye shume te qarte:
12:44
The facts are getting out there.
Faktet jane te dukshme.
12:47
The realities of this new machine age
Realiteti e kesaj epoke te re te makines
12:49
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
dhe ndryshimi ne ekonomi
po behet me i perhapur.
12:51
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
Nese donim ta pershpejtonim ate proces,
mund te benim gjera
12:54
like have our best economists and policymakers
si p.sh. te vendosnim ekonomistet
dhe politikeberesit me te mire
12:57
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
te luanin "Jeopardy!" kunder Watson.
13:00
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
Mund te dergonim Kongresin ne
nje udhetim me makina robotike.
13:02
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
Dhe nese bejme mjaftueshem
nga keto lloj gjerash,
13:05
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
ndergjegjesimi do mbytet ne ate
qe gjerat do jene ndryshe.
13:07
And then we're off to the races,
Dhe atehere ne jemi jashte garave,
13:11
because I don't believe for a second
sepse nuk mendoj per asnje sekond
13:12
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
se kemi harruar te zgjidhim
sfida te veshtira
13:15
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
ose jemi bere shume apatik
ose zemer-ngurte per te provuar.
13:18
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
E fillova fjalimin tim me citate
nga ekspert te fjales
13:22
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
te cilat ndaheshin nga nje oqean
dhe nje shekull.
13:24
Let me end it with words from politicians
Me lejoni ta mbyll me fjale nga politikane
13:27
who were similarly distant.
te cilet ishin njesoj te larget.
13:29
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
Winston Churchill erdhi ne shtepine
time te MIT ne 1949,
13:31
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
dhe tha, "Nese do sjellim masen e gjere
13:34
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
te njerezve te seciles toke
ne tryezen e bollekut,
13:37
it can only be by the tireless improvement
mund te ndodhe vetem
nga permiresimi i palodhshem
13:40
of all of our means of technical production."
i te gjitha mjeteve te prodhimit teknik."
13:43
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
Abraham Lincoln zbuloi
se kishte nje tjeter perberes.
13:46
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
Ai tha, "Une jam nje besimtar
solid i njerezve.
13:49
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
Nese u jep te verteten, ata mund
te krijojne varesi mbi te
13:52
to meet any national crisis.
per te perballuar cdo krize nacionale.
13:54
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
Pika kryesore eshte ti japesh
atyre fakte te qarta."
13:57
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
Pra shenimi optimist, pika kryesore
qe une dua t'ju le
13:59
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
eshte se faktet e qarta te epokes se re
te makines po qartesohen,
14:02
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
dhe une kam besim se do ti perdorim ato
14:06
to chart a good course into the challenging,
per te hapur nje rruge te mire
14:08
abundant economy that we're creating.
drejt ekonomise se bollekut qe po krijojme.
14:11
Thank you very much.
Falemnderit shume.
14:14
(Applause)
(Duartrokitje)
14:15

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About the Speaker:

Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.

Why you should listen

Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.

He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.

 

More profile about the speaker
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com