TEDxLondonBusinessSchool
Nirmalya Kumar: India's invisible innovation
Nirmalaja Kumar (Nirmalya Kumar): Indijska nevidljiva inovacija
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Može li Indija da postane globalni centar inovacija? Nirmalaja Kumar misli da ona to već jeste. On je izložio četiri vrste "nevidljivih inovacija" koje trenutno dolaze iz Indije i objasnio zašto kompanije koje su do sada izmeštale samo proizvodne poslove počinju da premeštaju i sam vrh menadžmenta u inostranstvo. (Snimljeno na TEDxLondonBusinessSchool)
Nirmalya Kumar - Professor
Nirmalya Kumar is a professor of Marketing at the London Business School and a passionate voice for new entrepreneurs in India. Full bio
Nirmalya Kumar is a professor of Marketing at the London Business School and a passionate voice for new entrepreneurs in India. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Over the last two decades, India has become
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Tokom poslednje dve decenije,
Indija je postala
Indija je postala
00:18
a global hub for software development
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globalni centar za razvoj softvera
00:21
and offshoring of back office services, as we call it,
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i izmeštanje službi internog poslovanja,
kako ih mi zovemo
kako ih mi zovemo
00:25
and what we were interested in finding out was that
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a ono što smo mi želeli
da saznamo je to
da saznamo je to
00:30
because of this huge industry that has started
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što je zbog ove velike industrije
koja je pokrenuta
koja je pokrenuta
00:34
over the last two decades in India,
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tokom poslednje dve decenije u Indiji,
00:36
offshoring software development and back office services,
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došlo je do izmeštanja razvoja softvera
i službi internog poslovanja,
i službi internog poslovanja,
00:39
there's been a flight of white collar jobs
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i do premeštanja poslova belih okovratnika
00:41
from the developed world to India.
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iz razvijenog sveta u Indiju.
00:45
When this is combined with the loss of manufacturing jobs
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Kada se to spoji sa gubitkom
proizvodnih radnih mesta
proizvodnih radnih mesta
00:48
to China, it has, you know, led to considerable angst
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u Kini, to vodi razumljivoj zebnji
00:52
amongst the Western populations.
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među zapadnjačkim populacijama.
00:55
In fact, if you look at polls, they show a declining
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Zapravo, ako pogledate ankete,
one pokazuju opadajući
one pokazuju opadajući
00:58
trend for support for free trade in the West.
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trend kada je u pitanju podržavanje
slobodne trgovine na Zapadu.
slobodne trgovine na Zapadu.
01:03
Now, the Western elites, however, have said
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Sada, zapadnjačka elita međutim kaže
01:06
this fear is misplaced.
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da je taj strah nestao.
01:08
For example, if you have read — I suspect many of you
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Uzmimo na primer, ako ste pročitali,
a verujem da većina vas
a verujem da većina vas
01:11
have done so — read the book by Thomas Friedman
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jeste, knjigu Tomasa Fridmana
01:14
called "The World Is Flat," he said, basically, in his book
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"Svet je ravan", on u osnovi kaže
01:17
that, you know, this fear for free trade is wrong
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da je ovaj strah od slobodne trgovine pogrešan
01:21
because it assumes, it's based on a mistaken assumption
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zato što pretpostavlja, a to je zasnovano
na pogrešnoj pretpostavci
na pogrešnoj pretpostavci
01:24
that everything that can be invented has been invented.
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da sve što se može izmisliti je već izmišljeno.
01:28
In fact, he says, it's innovation that will keep the West
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Zapravo, on kaže, da inovacija
koja će zadržati Zapad
koja će zadržati Zapad
01:31
ahead of the developing world,
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na čelu razvijenog sveta,
01:33
with the more sophisticated, innovative tasks being done
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je to što će se sofisticiraniji,
inovativniji zadaci obavljati
inovativniji zadaci obavljati
01:36
in the developed world, and the less sophisticated,
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u razvijenom svetu, a oni manje sofisticirani,
01:39
shall we say, drudge work being done
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možemo reći, teški poslovi raditi
01:40
in the developing world.
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u zemljama u razvoju.
01:43
Now, what we were trying to understand was,
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Sada, ono što mi pokušavamo
da shvatimo je,
da shvatimo je,
01:47
is this true?
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da li je to istina?
01:50
Could India become a source, or a global hub,
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Da li Indija može postati izvor,
ili globalni centar
ili globalni centar
01:53
of innovation, just like it's become a global hub
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inovacija, kao što je postala globalni centar
01:57
for back office services and software development?
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službi internog poslovanja i softverskog razvoja?
02:00
And for the last four years, my coauthor Phanish Puranam
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Poslednje četiri godine
moj koautor Faniš Puranam
moj koautor Faniš Puranam
02:04
and I spent investigating this topic.
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i ja smo proveli istražujući ovu temu.
02:08
Initially, or, you know, as people would say, you know,
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U početku, znate, kako bi ljudi rekli,
02:12
in fact the more aggressive people who are supporting
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zapravo, oni malo agresivniji ljudi koji podržavaju
02:14
the Western innovative model, say,
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zapadni inovativni model, kažu:
02:16
"Where are the Indian Googles, iPods and Viagras,
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"Gde su Indijski Guglovi, iPodovi i vijagre,
02:19
if the Indians are so bloody smart?" (Laughter)
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ako su Indijci tako pametni?" (Smeh)
02:23
So initially, when we started our research, we went
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Tako da smo u početku,
kada smo počeli naše istraživanje, otišli
kada smo počeli naše istraživanje, otišli
02:25
and met several executives, and we asked them,
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i sastali se sa nekoliko rukovodilaca
i pitali ih:
i pitali ih:
02:27
"What do you think? Will India go from being a favored
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"Šta vi mislite? Hoće li Indija prerasti
iz omiljenog
iz omiljenog
02:30
destination for software services and back office services
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mesta za softverske usluge
i službe internog poslovanja
i službe internog poslovanja
02:33
to a destination for innovation?"
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u odredište za inovacije?"
02:36
They laughed. They dismissed us.
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Smejali su se. Odbacili su nas.
02:38
They said, "You know what? Indians don't do innovation."
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Rekli su: "Znate šta? Indijci se
ne bave inovacijama."
ne bave inovacijama."
02:41
The more polite ones said, "Well, you know, Indians
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Jedan malo ljubazniji od njih je rekao:
"Pa, znate, Indijci
"Pa, znate, Indijci
02:43
make good software programmers and accountants,
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su dobri softverski programeri i računovođe,
02:46
but they can't do the creative stuff."
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ali oni ne mogu raditi kreativne stvari."
02:49
Sometimes, it took a more, took a veneer of sophistication,
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Ponekad to ide i dalje pa,
pod plaštom sofisticiranosti,
pod plaštom sofisticiranosti,
02:53
and people said, "You know, it's nothing to do with Indians.
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ljudi kažu: "Znate, to nema nikakve veze
sa Indijcima.
sa Indijcima.
02:56
It's really the rule-based, regimented education system
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To je zapravo tako regulisan,
disciplinovan obrazovni sistem
disciplinovan obrazovni sistem
02:59
in India that is responsible for killing all creativity."
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u Indiji koji je odgovoran za
ubijanje kreativnosti."
ubijanje kreativnosti."
03:04
They said, instead, if you want to see real creativity,
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Oni kažu, umesto toga, ako želiš
da vidiš pravu kreativnost
da vidiš pravu kreativnost
03:06
go to Silicon Valley, and look at companies
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idi u Silikonsku dolinu i pogledaj u kompanijama
03:08
like Google, Microsoft, Intel.
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kao sto su Google, Microsoft, Intel.
03:11
So we started examining the R&D and innovation labs
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Tako smo mi počeli sa ispitivanjem laboratorija za istraživanje i razvoj i inovacije
03:14
of Silicon Valley.
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u Silikonskoj dolini.
03:16
Well, interestingly, what you find there is,
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Zanimljivo, ono što ćete naći tamo,
03:18
usually you are introduced to the head of the innovation lab
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obično vas upoznaju sa vođom
inovacione laboratorije
inovacione laboratorije
03:21
or the R&D center as they may call it,
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ili R&D centrom, kako oni to zovu
03:23
and more often than not, it's an Indian. (Laughter)
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i u većem broju slučajeva je to Indijac. (Smeh)
03:27
So I immediately said, "Well, but you could not have been
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Ja sam odmah rekao: "Dobro,
ali vi sigurno niste
ali vi sigurno niste
03:30
educated in India, right?
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obrazovani u Indiji, zar ne?
03:31
You must have gotten your education here."
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Sigurno ste stekli svoje obrazovanje ovde."
03:33
It turned out, in every single case,
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Ispostavilo se, u svakom
pojedinačnom slučaju,
pojedinačnom slučaju,
03:37
they came out of the Indian educational system.
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da su oni izašli iz indijskog
sistema obrazovanja.
sistema obrazovanja.
03:41
So we realized that maybe we had the wrong question,
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Shvatili smo da možda postavljamo
pogrešno pitanje,
pogrešno pitanje,
03:43
and the right question is, really, can Indians
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a pravo pitanje zapravo jeste, mogu li Indijci
03:46
based out of India do innovative work?
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negde van Indije da rade inovativne poslove?
03:50
So off we went to India. We made, I think,
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Tako da smo otišli u Indiju.
Imali smo, mislim,
Imali smo, mislim,
03:52
about a dozen trips to Bangalore, Mumbai, Gurgaon,
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oko dvanaestak putovanja u Bangalor,
Mumbaj, Gurgaon,
Mumbaj, Gurgaon,
03:55
Delhi, Hyderabad, you name it, to examine
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Delhi, Hajderabad, da ispitamo
03:58
what is the level of corporate innovation in these cities.
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koji je nivo korporativnih inovacija
u ovim gradovima.
u ovim gradovima.
04:03
And what we found was, as we progressed in our research,
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I ono što smo otkrili je,
kako smo dalje napredovali u našim istraživanjima,
kako smo dalje napredovali u našim istraživanjima,
04:05
was, that we were asking really the wrong question.
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bilo to da smo mi zaista
postavljali pogrešno pitanje.
postavljali pogrešno pitanje.
04:08
When you ask, "Where are the Indian Googles,
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Kada pitate: "Gde su Indijski Guglovi,
04:10
iPods and Viagras?" you are taking a particular perspective
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iPodovi i Vijagre?", vi posmatrate
određeni aspekt
određeni aspekt
04:14
on innovation, which is innovation for end users,
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inovacije, koji predstavlja inovaciju
za krajnje korisnike,
za krajnje korisnike,
04:19
visible innovation.
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vidljivu inovaciju.
04:20
Instead, innovation, if you remember, some of you
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Umesto toga, inovacija, ako se sećate,
neki od vas
neki od vas
04:24
may have read the famous economist Schumpeter,
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su možda čitali poznatog
ekonomistu Šumpetera,
ekonomistu Šumpetera,
04:26
he said, "Innovation is novelty
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koji kaže: "Inovacija je novina
04:28
in how value is created and distributed."
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u načinu kako se vrednost kreira i distribuira."
04:32
It could be new products and services,
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To mogu biti novi proizvodi i usluge,
04:34
but it could also be new ways of producing products.
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ali to takođe mogu biti i novi načini
proizvodnje proizvoda.
proizvodnje proizvoda.
04:36
It could also be novel ways of organizing firms and industries.
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To takođe može biti novi način
organizovanja firmi i industrije.
organizovanja firmi i industrije.
04:39
Once you take this, there's no reason to restrict innovation,
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Jednom kada to preuzmete,
nema razloga da ograničite inovaciju,
nema razloga da ograničite inovaciju,
04:43
the beneficiaries of innovation, just to end users.
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korisnike inovacije, samo na krajnje korisnike.
04:47
When you take this broader conceptualization of innovation,
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Kada uzmete tu širu konceptualizaciju inovacije,
04:50
what we found was, India is well represented
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otkrili smo da je Indija veoma zastupljena
04:53
in innovation, but the innovation that is being done in India
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u inovacijama, ali inovacije
koje se sprovode u Indiji
koje se sprovode u Indiji
04:57
is of a form we did not anticipate, and what we did was
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su u formi koju mi nismo predvideli,
a ono što smo uradili
a ono što smo uradili
05:00
we called it "invisible innovation."
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je da je nazovemo "nevidljiva inovacija. "
05:02
And specifically, there are four types of invisible innovation
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Konkretno, postoje četiri vrste
nevidljivih inovacija
nevidljivih inovacija
05:05
that are coming out of India.
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koje dolaze iz Indije.
05:07
The first type of invisible innovation out of India
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Prva vrsta nevidljivih inovacija iz Indije
05:10
is what we call innovation for business customers,
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je ono što mi zovemo inovacijom
za poslovne korisnike,
za poslovne korisnike,
05:13
which is led by the multinational corporations,
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na čijem su čelu multinacionalne korporacije,
05:16
which have -- in the last two decades, there have been
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koje imaju, a u poslednje dve decenije je bilo
05:19
750 R&D centers set up in India by multinational companies
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750 R&D centara multinacionalnih kompanija
postavljenih u Indiji
postavljenih u Indiji
05:25
employing more than 400,000 professionals.
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koji zapošljavaju više od 400 000 profesionalaca.
05:29
Now, when you consider the fact that, historically,
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Sada, kada uzmete u obzir činjenicu da je,
istorijski gledano,
istorijski gledano,
05:34
the R&D center of a multinational company
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R&D centar multinacionalne kompanije
05:37
was always in the headquarters, or in the country of origin
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uvek bio u sedištu ili u zemlji porekla
05:41
of that multinational company, to have 750 R&D centers
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te multinacionalne kompanije,
imati 750 R&D centara
imati 750 R&D centara
05:45
of multinational corporations in India
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multinacionalnih kompanija u Indiji
05:48
is truly a remarkable figure.
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je zaista izuzetna brojka.
05:50
When we went and talked to the people in those innovation
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Kada smo otišli i razgovarali s ljudima u tim
inovacionim
inovacionim
05:53
centers and asked them what are they working on,
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centrima i pitali ih na čemu oni rade,
05:55
they said, "We are working on global products."
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rekli su: "Mi radimo na globalnim proizvodima."
05:57
They were not working on localizing global products
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Nisu radili na lokalizovanju globalnih proizvoda
06:00
for India, which is the usual role of a local R&D.
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za Indiju, što je uobičajena uloga lokalnih R&D.
06:04
They were working on truly global products,
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Oni su radili na stvarnim globalnim proizvodima
06:06
and companies like Microsoft, Google, AstraZeneca,
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i kompanije kao sto su Microsoft,
Google, AstraZeneca,
Google, AstraZeneca,
06:10
General Electric, Philips, have already answered
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General Electric, Philips, su već odgovorili
06:13
in the affirmative the question that from their Bangalore
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potvrdno na pitanje da su njihovi
R&D centri iz Bangalora
R&D centri iz Bangalora
06:16
and Hyderabad R&D centers they are able to produce
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i Hajderabada, sposobni da proizvedu
06:20
products and services for the world.
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proizvode i usluge za ceo svet.
06:23
But of course, as an end user, you don't see that,
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Ali naravno, kao jedan krajnji korisnik,
vi to ne vidite,
vi to ne vidite,
06:26
because you only see the name of the company,
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zato što vidite samo ime kompanije,
06:27
not where it was developed.
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ne i gde je to razvijeno.
06:31
The other thing we were told then was, "Yes, but, you know,
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Druga stvar koja nam je zatim rečena je:
"Da, ali, znate,
"Da, ali, znate,
06:34
the kind of work that is coming out of the Indian R&D center
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ta vrsta posla koja dolazi
iz indijskog R&D centra
iz indijskog R&D centra
06:36
cannot be compared to the kind of work that is coming out
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ne može se uporediti sa vrstom posla koja dolazi
06:38
of the U.S. R&D centers."
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iz američkih R&D centara."
06:41
So my coauthor Phanish Puranam, who happens to be
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Tada je moj koautor Faniš Puranam, koji je
06:42
one of the smartest people I know, said
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jedan od najpametnijih ljudi koje znam, rekao
06:45
he's going to do a study.
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da će uraditi studiju.
06:46
What he did was he looked at those companies
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On je pogledao u onim kompanijama
06:49
that had an R&D center in USA and in India,
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koje su imale R&D centar u SAD i u Indiji
06:52
and then he looked at a patent that was filed
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zatim je pogledao patent koji je zaveden
06:55
out of the U.S. and a similar patent filed out of the same
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u SAD i sličan patent zaveden
06:58
company's subsidiary in India,
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u filijali iste kompanije u Indiji
07:00
so he's now comparing the patents of R&D centers
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tako da sada upoređuje patente R&D centara
07:03
in the U.S. with R&D centers in India of the same company
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u SAD sa R&D centrima
iste kompanije u Indiji
iste kompanije u Indiji
07:07
to find out what is the quality of the patents filed
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da bi otkrio koji je kvalitet patenata zavedenih
07:10
out of the Indian centers and how do they compare
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u indijskim centrima i kako se oni porede sa
07:11
with the quality of the patents filed out of the U.S. centers?
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kvalitetom patenata zavedenih u SAD centrima?
07:14
Interestingly, what he finds is
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Zanimljivo, ono što je našao
07:16
— and by the way, the way we look at the quality of a patent
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- uzgred, način na koji smo posmatrali
kvalitet patenta
kvalitet patenta
07:19
is what we call forward citations: How many times
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je ono kako mi shvatamo naredne citate: koliko puta
07:22
does a future patent reference the older patent? —
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sledeći patent upućuje na stariji patent?
07:26
he finds something very interesting.
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Otkrio je nešto veoma interesantno.
07:29
What we find is that the data says
145
434023
2068
Ono što smo otkrili da podaci govore
07:31
that the number of forward citations of a patent filed
146
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3919
je da je broj daljih navođenja
zavedenih patenata
zavedenih patenata
07:35
out of a U.S. R&D subsidiary is identical to the number
147
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3041
R&D filijala u SAD identičan broju
07:38
of forward citations of a patent filed by an Indian subsidiary
148
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3972
daljih navođenja patenata zavedenih
u indijskoj filijali
u indijskoj filijali
07:42
of the same company within that company.
149
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2021
istog preduzeća unutar te kompanije.
07:44
So within the company, there's no difference in the forward
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2991
Tako da u kompaniji, nema razlike
u stopi daljih
u stopi daljih
07:47
citation rates of their Indian subsidiaries versus
151
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2051
navoda u njihovoj indijskoj filijali naspram
07:49
their U.S. subsidiaries.
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1010
njihove SAD filijale.
07:50
So that's the first kind of invisible innovation coming out of India.
153
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To je prva vrsta nevidljive inovacije
koja dolazi iz Indije.
koja dolazi iz Indije.
07:54
The second kind of invisible innovation coming out of India
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2955
Druga vrsta nevidljive inovacije koja
dolazi iz Indije
dolazi iz Indije
07:57
is what we call outsourcing innovation to Indian companies,
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3970
je ono što mi zovemo outsourcing inovacija
u indijskim kompanijama,
u indijskim kompanijama,
08:01
where many companies today are contracting
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3002
gde mnoge kompanije danas sklapaju ugovore
08:04
Indian companies to do a major part of their product
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sa indijskim kompanijama da
rade najveći deo njihovog posla
rade najveći deo njihovog posla
08:07
development work for their global products
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na razvoju proizvoda za njihove globalne proizvode
08:12
which are going to be sold to the entire world.
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2031
koji će se prodavati u celom svetu.
08:14
For example, in the pharma industry, a lot of the molecules
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479069
2022
Na primer, u farmaceutskoj industriji,
najveći deo molekula
najveći deo molekula
08:16
are being developed, but you see a major part of that work
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2960
se razvija, ali vidite da se veći deo tog posla
08:19
is being sent to India.
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šalje u Indiju.
08:22
For example, XCL Technologies,
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3001
Na primer, XCL tehnologije,
08:25
they developed two of the mission critical systems
164
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2092
razvile su dva kritična sistema borbenog leta
08:27
for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner,
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3920
za novi Boing 787 Dreamliner,
08:31
one to avoid collisions in the sky,
166
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2072
prvi da izbegne sudar na nebu
08:33
and another to allow landing in zero visibility.
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3924
i drugi da omogućava sletanje pri nultoj vidljivosti.
08:37
But of course, when you climb onto the Boeing 787,
168
502015
2063
Ali naravno, kada se popnete u Boing 787,
08:39
you are not going to know that this is invisible innovation
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2938
nećete znati da je ovo nevidljiva inovacija
08:42
out of India.
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1027
koja je došla iz Indije.
08:43
The third kind of invisible innovation coming out of India
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3001
Treća vrsta nevidljivih inovacija
koje dolaze iz Indije
koje dolaze iz Indije
08:46
is what we call process innovations, because of an injection
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2999
je ono što mi zovemo procesne inovacije,
zbog uvođenja
zbog uvođenja
08:49
of intelligence by Indian firms.
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2973
inteligencije iz indijskih firmi.
08:52
Process innovation is different from product innovation.
174
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4026
Procesne inovacije se razlikuju
od proizvodnih inovacija.
od proizvodnih inovacija.
08:56
It's about how do you create a new product or develop
175
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3021
To je vezano za ono kako stvarate
novi proizvod ili razvijate
novi proizvod ili razvijate
08:59
a new product or manufacture a new product,
176
524063
2000
novi proizvod ili izrađujete novi proizvod,
09:01
but not a new product itself?
177
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2004
ali ne i sam novi proizvod?
09:03
Only in India do millions of young people dream
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5010
Samo u Indiji milioni mladih ljudi sanjaju
09:08
of working in a call center.
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4019
da rade u call centru.
09:12
What happens — You know, it's a dead end job in the West,
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3002
Šta se dešava - znate,
to je posao bez perspektive na Zapadu,
to je posao bez perspektive na Zapadu,
09:15
what high school dropouts do.
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2933
koji rade oni koji su napustili srednju školu.
09:18
What happens when you put hundreds of thousands
182
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3012
Šta se dešava kada stavite stotine hiljada
09:21
of smart, young, ambitious kids
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3016
pametnih, mladih i ambicioznih klinaca
09:24
on a call center job?
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2030
da rade posao u call centru?
09:26
Very quickly, they get bored, and they start innovating,
185
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4990
Veoma brzo im dosadi
i oni počinju da smišljaju inovacije
i oni počinju da smišljaju inovacije
09:31
and they start telling the boss how to do this job better, and
186
556079
3930
i počinju da govore šefu kako da
učini taj posao boljim i
učini taj posao boljim i
09:35
out of this process innovation comes product innovations,
187
560009
3021
iz ove inovacije procesa dolazi
do inovacije proizvoda
do inovacije proizvoda
09:38
which are then marketed around the world.
188
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1973
koji se kasnije prodaje širom sveta.
09:40
For example, 24/7 Customer,
189
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2039
Na primer, 24/7 korisnički servis
09:42
traditional call center company, used to be a traditional
190
567042
2029
tradicionalni call centar kompanije,
predstavljao je tradicionalni
predstavljao je tradicionalni
09:44
call center company. Today they're developing
191
569071
1984
call centar kompanije. Danas, oni razvijaju
09:46
analytical tools to do predictive modeling so that before
192
571055
3945
analitičke alatke da naprave model
koji će predviđati, tako da pre
koji će predviđati, tako da pre
09:50
you pick up the phone, you can guess
193
575000
3005
nego što podignete slušalicu,
možete da pogodite
možete da pogodite
09:53
or predict what this phone call is about.
194
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6073
ili predvidite na šta će se poziv odnositi.
09:59
It's because of an injection of intelligence into a process
195
584078
2950
To je zbog injekcije inteligencije u proces
10:02
which was considered dead for a long time in the West.
196
587028
2982
koji je smatran mrtvim dugo vremena
na Zapadu.
na Zapadu.
10:05
And the last kind of innovation, invisible innovation
197
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3031
I poslednja vrsta inovacije, nevidljive inovacije
10:08
coming out of India is what we call management innovation.
198
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2961
koja dolazi iz Indije je ono
što zovemo menadžment inovacija.
što zovemo menadžment inovacija.
10:11
It's not a new product or a new process
199
596002
1073
To nije novi proizvod ili novi proces
10:12
but a new way to organize work,
200
597075
2935
već novi način organizacije posla
10:15
and the most significant management innovation to come
201
600010
2049
i najznačajnija menadžment inovacija
koja dolazi
koja dolazi
10:17
out of India, invented by the Indian offshoring industry
202
602059
3956
iz Indije, koju je izmislila
indijska offshoring industrija
indijska offshoring industrija
10:21
is what we call the global delivery model.
203
606015
2065
je ono što zovemo globalnim
modelom isporuke.
modelom isporuke.
10:23
What the global delivery model allows is, it allows you
204
608080
2929
Ono što vam globalni model isporuke
omogućava je da
omogućava je da
10:26
to take previously geographically core-located tasks,
205
611009
3050
uzmete zadatke koji su prethodno bili
vezani za jezgro,
vezani za jezgro,
10:29
break them up into parts, send them around the world
206
614059
3001
podelite ih na delove, pošaljete širom sveta
10:32
where the expertise and the cost structure exists,
207
617060
2001
gde stručnost i struktura troškova postoje,
10:34
and then specify the means for reintegrating them.
208
619061
2983
a zatim odredite sredstva
za njihovu reintegraciju.
za njihovu reintegraciju.
10:37
Without that, you could not have any of the other
209
622044
2013
Bez toga, ne biste mogli da imate ni jednu od ostalih
10:39
invisible innovations today.
210
624057
2028
nevidljivih inovacija danas.
10:41
So, what I'm trying to say is, what we are finding
211
626085
2964
Ono što pokušavam da kažem je,
i ono što smo otkrili
i ono što smo otkrili
10:44
in our research is, that if products for end users
212
629049
4963
u našem istraživanju je,
da ako su proizvodi za krajnje korisnike
da ako su proizvodi za krajnje korisnike
10:49
is the visible tip of the innovation iceberg,
213
634012
3029
vidljivi vrh ledenog brega inovacija
10:52
India is well represented in the invisible, large,
214
637041
3992
Indija je dobro predstavljena
u nevidljivom, velikom,
u nevidljivom, velikom,
10:56
submerged portion of the innovation iceberg.
215
641033
5024
potopljenom delu ledenog brega inovacija.
11:01
Now, this has, of course, some implications,
216
646057
4996
Sada, ovo naravno ima neke implikacije
11:06
and so we developed three implications of this research.
217
651053
4024
i mi smo razvili tri implikacije ovog istrazivanja.
11:10
The first is what we called sinking skill ladder,
218
655077
3924
Prva je kako je mi zovemo
potapanje lestvice veštine
potapanje lestvice veštine
11:14
and now I'm going to go back to where I started my
219
659001
2072
i sada ću se vratiti tamo gde sam počeo svoj
11:16
conversation with you, which was about the flight of jobs.
220
661073
3022
razgovor sa vama, koji je bio
o premeštanju poslova.
o premeštanju poslova.
11:19
Now, of course, when we first, as a multinational company,
221
664095
3913
Sada, naravno, kada smo prvo,
kao multinacionalna kompanija
kao multinacionalna kompanija
11:23
decide to outsource jobs to India in the R&D,
222
668008
2082
odlučili da izmestimo poslove u Indiju u R&D
11:25
what we are going to do is we are going to outsource the
223
670090
3944
ono što smo nameravali da
uradimo je da izmestimo
uradimo je da izmestimo
11:29
bottom rung of the ladder to India, the least sophisticated jobs,
224
674034
3008
najniži stepenik lestvica u Indiju,
najmanje sofisticirane poslove
najmanje sofisticirane poslove
11:32
just like Tom Friedman would predict.
225
677042
3021
kao što bi Tom Fridman predvideo.
11:35
Now, what happens is, when you outsource the bottom rung
226
680063
2972
Ono što se sada dešava
kada premestimo poslednji stepenik
kada premestimo poslednji stepenik
11:38
of the ladder to India for innovation and for R&D work,
227
683035
4982
lestvica u Indiju zbog inovacija
ili zbog R&D poslova
ili zbog R&D poslova
11:43
at some stage in the very near future you are going to have
228
688017
3023
u nekom momentu u veoma bliskoj budućnosti
11:46
to confront a problem,
229
691040
2014
suočićete se sa problemom
11:48
which is where does the next step
230
693054
1989
a to je koji je sledeći korak
11:50
of the ladder people come from within your company?
231
695043
3026
ljudi koji su na lestvicama u vašoj kompaniji?
11:53
So you have two choices then:
232
698069
2990
Imate dva izbora:
11:56
Either you bring the people from India into
233
701059
2018
ili ćete dovesti ljude iz Indije u
11:58
the developed world to take positions in the next step
234
703077
2991
razijeni svet da zauzmu pozicije
na novim stepenicama
na novim stepenicama
12:01
of the ladder — immigration —
235
706068
2974
lestvica - imigracija -
12:04
or you say, there's so many people in the bottom step
236
709042
2044
ili ćete reći, ima tako mnogo ljudi
na poslednjem stepeniku
na poslednjem stepeniku
12:06
of the ladder waiting to take the next position in India,
237
711086
2964
lestvica koji čekaju da zauzmu
sledeću poziciju u Indiji,
sledeću poziciju u Indiji,
12:09
why don't we move the next step to India?
238
714050
4023
zašto ne premestiti sledeći korak u Indiju?
12:13
What we are trying to say is
239
718073
1995
Ono što pokušavamo da kažemo je
12:15
that once you outsource the bottom end of the ladder, you --
240
720068
5023
da jednom kada prepustite donji deo lestvica
12:20
it's a self-perpetuating act, because of the sinking skill ladder,
241
725091
2970
to je samoinicijativni akt,
zbog potapanja lestvica veštine
zbog potapanja lestvica veštine
12:23
and the sinking skill ladder is simply the point that
242
728061
2973
i potapanje lestvica veštine je
jednostavno stanovište da
jednostavno stanovište da
12:26
you can't be an investment banker
243
731034
2015
ne možete biti bankar,
12:28
without having been an analyst once.
244
733049
1999
a da niste pre toga nekada bili analitičar.
12:30
You can't be a professor without having been a student.
245
735048
2027
Ne možete biti profesor,
a da pre toga niste bili student.
a da pre toga niste bili student.
12:32
You can't be a consultant without having been a research associate.
246
737075
2986
Ne možete biti konsultant,
a da pre toga niste bili naučni saradnik.
a da pre toga niste bili naučni saradnik.
12:35
So, if you outsource the least sophisticated jobs,
247
740061
2959
Tako da, ako prepustite najmanje
sofisticirane poslove
sofisticirane poslove
12:38
at some stage, the next step of the ladder has to follow.
248
743020
4027
u nekom trenutku, sledeći koraci na
lestvicama treba da slede.
lestvicama treba da slede.
12:42
The second thing we bring up is what we call
249
747047
1985
Druga stvar koju smo izneli je ono što zovemo
12:44
the browning of the TMT, the top management teams.
250
749032
3036
označavanje TMT-ja, top menadžment timovi.
12:47
If the R&D talent is going to be based out of India
251
752068
2964
Ako će R&D talenti biti stacionirani izvan Indije
12:50
and China, and the largest growth markets
252
755032
2024
i Kine, a i tržišta koja beleže najveći rast
12:52
are going to be based out of India and China,
253
757056
2024
će biti bazirana izvan Indije i Kine,
12:54
you have to confront the problem that
254
759080
1973
suočićete se sa problemom da će
12:56
your top management of the future
255
761053
1960
vaš top menadžment u budućnosti
12:58
is going to have to come out of India and China,
256
763015
3001
morati da dođe iz Indije i Kine
13:01
because that's where the product leadership is,
257
766016
1083
zato što je tamo proizvodno rukovodstvo,
13:02
that's where the important market leadership is.
258
767099
2916
tamo je važno tržišno rukovodstvo.
13:05
Right? And the last thing we point out in this slide,
259
770015
2078
Zar ne? I poslednja stvar na koju želimo
da ukažemo u ovom slajdu
da ukažemo u ovom slajdu
13:07
which is, you know, that to this story, there's one caveat.
260
772093
3943
koja predstavlja jednu manu u
čitavoj ovoj prici.
čitavoj ovoj prici.
13:11
India has the youngest growing population in the world.
261
776036
4006
Indija ima najmlađe stanovništvo na svetu.
13:15
This demographic dividend is incredible, but paradoxically,
262
780042
4030
Ova demografska podela je neverovatna,
ali paradoksalno
ali paradoksalno
13:19
there's also the mirage of mighty labor pools.
263
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2939
postoji iluzija o moćnim radnim kartelima.
13:22
Indian institutes and educational system,
264
787011
2993
Indijski instituti i obrazovni sistem,
13:25
with a few exceptions, are incapable of producing students
265
790004
2093
sa nekoliko izuzetaka, su nesposobni
da naprave studente
da naprave studente
13:27
in the quantity and quality needed
266
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2950
potrebne po broju i kvalitetu
13:30
to keep this innovation engine going,
267
795047
2954
da održe ovaj motor inovacija u pokretu,
13:33
so companies are finding innovative ways to overcome this,
268
798001
3021
tako da kompanije nalaze inovativne
načine da prevaziđu ovo
načine da prevaziđu ovo
13:36
but in the end it does not absolve the government
269
801022
2060
ali na kraju to ne oslobađa vladu
13:38
of the responsibility for creating this educational structure.
270
803082
4947
odgovornosti što je stvorila ovakvu
obrazovnu strukturu.
obrazovnu strukturu.
13:43
So finally, I want to conclude
271
808029
3033
Na kraju, želeo bih da zaključim
13:46
by showing you the profile of one company, IBM.
272
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3032
pokazujući vam profil jedne kompanije, IBM.
13:49
As many of you know, IBM has always been considered
273
814094
2937
Kao što većina vas zna, IBM je u poslednjih sto godina
13:52
for the last hundred years to be one of the most
274
817031
1998
smatran za jednu od
13:54
innovative companies.
275
819029
1027
najinventivnijih kompanija.
13:55
In fact, if you look at the number of patents filed over history,
276
820056
2975
Zapravo, ako pogledate broj patenata
zavedenih kroz istoriju
zavedenih kroz istoriju
13:58
I think they are in the top or the top two or three companies
277
823031
2040
mislim da su u vrhu ili u prve dve
ili tri kompanije
ili tri kompanije
14:00
in the world of all patents filed in the USA as a private company.
278
825071
3970
na svetu po broju patenata zavedenih
u SAD kao privatna kompanija.
u SAD kao privatna kompanija.
14:04
Here is the profile of employees of
279
829041
2050
Ovo je profil zaposlenih u
14:06
IBM over the last decade.
280
831091
3993
IBM-u tokom poslednje decenije.
14:10
In 2003, they had 300,000 employees,
281
835084
2975
U 2003., imali su 300 000 zaposlenih
14:13
or 330,000 employees, out of which, 135,000
282
838059
4009
ili 330 000 zaposlenih, od kojih je 135 000
14:17
were in America, 9,000 were in India.
283
842068
3959
bilo u Americi, a 9 000 je bilo u Indiji.
14:21
In 2009, they had 400,000 employees, by which time
284
846027
5003
2009., imali su 400 000 zaposlenih, a tada
14:26
the U.S. employees had moved to 105,000,
285
851030
2057
se broj zaposlenih u Americi
smanjio na 105 000,
smanjio na 105 000,
14:28
whereas the Indian employees had gone to 100,000.
286
853087
3927
dok se broj zaposlenih u Indiji povećao
na 100 000.
na 100 000.
14:32
Well, in 2010, they decided they're not going to reveal
287
857014
3002
U 2010., odlučili su da neće više otkrivati
14:35
this data anymore, so I had to make some estimates
288
860016
2032
ove podatke, tako da sam morao da
napravim neke procene
napravim neke procene
14:37
based on various sources.
289
862048
1040
na osnovu različitih izvora.
14:38
Here are my best guesses. Okay? I'm not saying
290
863088
2964
Ovo su moja najbolja nagađanja.
U redu? Ne kažem
U redu? Ne kažem
14:41
this is the exact number, it's my best guess.
291
866052
1046
da je ovo tačan broj, to je moja najbolja pretpostavka.
14:42
It gives you a sense of the trend.
292
867098
1962
Daće vam okvirnu predstavu o trendu.
14:44
There are 433,000 people now at IBM, out of which
293
869060
4963
Ima 433 000 ljudi sada u IBM-u,
od kojih je
od kojih je
14:49
98,000 are remaining in the U.S.,
294
874023
2060
98 000 ostalo u SAD,
14:51
and 150,000 are in India.
295
876083
3956
a 150 000 je u Indiji.
14:55
So you tell me, is IBM an American company,
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Pa vi meni recite, da li je IBM američka kompanija
14:58
or an Indian company? (Laughter)
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ili indijska kompanija? (Smeh)
15:02
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. (Applause)
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Dame i gospodo, mnogo vam hvala.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nirmalya Kumar - ProfessorNirmalya Kumar is a professor of Marketing at the London Business School and a passionate voice for new entrepreneurs in India.
Why you should listen
Nirmalya Kumar has taught at Harvard Business School, IMD-International Institute for Management Development in Switzerland, and the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He is currently a Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of Aditya Birla India Centre at London Business School. Kumar has served as a consultant to over 50 Fortune 500 Companies, worked on the board of five Indian firms, and has published six books -- including, most recently, India Inside: The emerging innovation challenge to the West. In 2011, Thinkers50 named him number 26 of the “50 most influential management gurus.”
Nirmalya Kumar | Speaker | TED.com