TEDGlobal 2014
Robert Muggah: How to protect fast-growing cities from failing
Robert Maga (Robert Muggah): Kako da od propadanja zaštitimo gradove koji se brzo šire
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Širom sveta nasilje opada, ali u gusto naseljenim gradovima juga - gradovima poput Alepa, Bamaka i Karakasa - nasilje je zapravo u porastu, pospešeno trgovinom drogama, masovnom nezaposlenošću i građanskim nemirima. Istraživač sigurnosti, Robert Maga, nam skreće pažnju na ove "nestabilne gradove", gradove koji se šire brzinom munje i čija je infrastruktura slaba, a čije su vlasti često nemoćne. On nam prikazuje 4 rizika sa kojim smo suočeni i nudi način da promenimo pravac.
Robert Muggah - Megacities expert
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We can cut violent deaths
around the world
around the world
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Možemo da umanjimo
broj nasilnih smrti u svetu
broj nasilnih smrti u svetu
00:17
by 50 percent in the next three decades.
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za 50 posto u naredne tri decenije.
00:22
All we have to do
is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
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Sve što treba da uradimo je da smanjimo
broj ubistava za 2,3 posto godišnje
broj ubistava za 2,3 posto godišnje
00:27
and we'll hit that target.
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i postići ćemo željeni cilj.
00:29
You don't believe me?
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Ne verujete mi?
00:31
Well, the leading epidemiologists
and criminologists around the world
and criminologists around the world
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Izgleda da vodeći epidemolozi
i kriminolozi u svetu
i kriminolozi u svetu
00:34
seem to think we can, and so do I,
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misle da možemo, a i ja to mislim,
00:37
but only if we focus on our cities,
especially the most fragile ones.
especially the most fragile ones.
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ali samo ukoliko se fokusiramo na naše
gradove, posebno na one najnestabilnije.
gradove, posebno na one najnestabilnije.
00:42
You see, I've been thinking
about this a lot.
about this a lot.
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Znate, mnogo sam razmišljao o ovome.
00:46
For the last 20 years, I've been working
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U poslednjih 20 godina, radim
00:48
in countries and cities
ripped apart by conflict,
ripped apart by conflict,
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u zemljama i gradovima
koje su razorili konflikti,
koje su razorili konflikti,
00:51
violence, terrorism, or some
insidious combination of all.
insidious combination of all.
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nasilje, terorizam, ili neka kobna
kombinacija svega navedenog.
kombinacija svega navedenog.
00:55
I've tracked gun smugglers
from Russia to Somalia,
from Russia to Somalia,
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Jurio sam krijumčare oružja
od Rusije do Somalije,
od Rusije do Somalije,
00:59
I've worked with warlords
in Afghanistan and the Congo,
in Afghanistan and the Congo,
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radio sam sa vojskovođama
u Avganistanu i Kongu.
u Avganistanu i Kongu.
01:02
I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in
Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
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Brojao sam leševe u Kolumbiji, Haitiju,
Šri Lanki, Papua Novoj Gvineji.
Šri Lanki, Papua Novoj Gvineji.
01:08
You don't need to be
on the front line, though,
on the front line, though,
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Doduše, ne morate biti na bojištu,
01:10
to get a sense that our planet
is spinning out of control, right?
is spinning out of control, right?
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kako biste stekli utisak da se naša
planeta opire kontroli, zar ne?
planeta opire kontroli, zar ne?
01:13
There's this feeling that international
instability is the new normal.
instability is the new normal.
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Stiče se osećaj da je međunarodna
nestabilnost novi standard.
nestabilnost novi standard.
01:18
But I want you to take a closer look,
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Želim da pažljivije pogledate
01:20
and I think you'll see that
the geography of violence is changing,
the geography of violence is changing,
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i vidite da se geografija nasilja menja
01:23
because it's not so much our nation states
that are gripped by conflict and crime
that are gripped by conflict and crime
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jer nisu same države
u košmaru konflikta i kriminala
u košmaru konflikta i kriminala
01:27
as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas,
Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
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koliko naši gradovi: Alepo, Bamako,
Karakas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
Karakas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
01:35
Violence is migrating to the metropole.
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Nasilje se seli u metropole.
01:38
And maybe this is to be expected, right?
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A ovo je možda bilo i očekivano.
01:40
After all, most people today,
they live in cities, not the countryside.
they live in cities, not the countryside.
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Na kraju krajeva, većina ljudi danas živi
u gradovima, ne u selima.
u gradovima, ne u selima.
01:44
Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities,
account for two thirds of global GDP.
account for two thirds of global GDP.
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Samo 600 gradova, uključujući i 30
megagradova, obuhvata 2/3 svetskog BDP-a.
megagradova, obuhvata 2/3 svetskog BDP-a.
01:50
But when it comes to cities,
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Kada su u pitanju naši gradovi,
01:52
the conversation is
dominated by the North,
dominated by the North,
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dijalog je uspostavljen na Severu,
01:55
that is, North America, Western Europe,
Australia and Japan,
Australia and Japan,
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tj, Severnoj Americi, Zapadnoj Evropi,
Australiji i Japanu,
Australiji i Japanu,
01:58
where violence is
actually at historic lows.
actually at historic lows.
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gde je nasilje najniže u istoriji.
02:01
As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk
about the triumph of the city,
about the triumph of the city,
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Kao rezultat toga, zaljubljenici u gradove
pričaju o trijumfu gradova,
pričaju o trijumfu gradova,
02:06
of the creative classes, and the mayors
that will rule the world.
that will rule the world.
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o kreativnim klasama, o tome kako će
gradonačelnici da vode svet.
gradonačelnici da vode svet.
02:10
Now, I hope that mayors
do one day rule the world,
do one day rule the world,
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Ja se nadam da će gradonačelnici jednog
dana vladati svetom,
dana vladati svetom,
02:13
but, you know, the fact is,
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ali, znate, činjenica je
02:15
we don't hear any conversation, really,
about what is happening in the South.
about what is happening in the South.
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da ne čujemo nikakve razgovore
o tome šta se dešava na jugu.
o tome šta se dešava na jugu.
02:20
And by South, I mean
Latin America, Africa, Asia,
Latin America, Africa, Asia,
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Pod jugom podrazumevam
Južnu Ameriku, Afriku, Aziju,
Južnu Ameriku, Afriku, Aziju,
02:24
where violence in some
cases is accelerating,
cases is accelerating,
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gde se nasilje
u nekim slučajevima ubrzava,
u nekim slučajevima ubrzava,
02:27
where infrastructure is overstretched,
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gde je infrastruktura zategnuta
02:29
and where governance is sometimes
an aspiration and not a reality.
an aspiration and not a reality.
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i gde je dobra vladavina samo težnja,
a ne stvarnost.
a ne stvarnost.
02:34
Now, some diplomats
and development experts and specialists,
and development experts and specialists,
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Neke diplomate
i stručnjaci za razvoj i specijalisti
i stručnjaci za razvoj i specijalisti
02:38
they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states
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pričaju o 40 do 50 nestabilnih država
02:41
that will shape security
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
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koje će oblikovati sigurnost 21. veka.
02:44
I think it's fragile cities which will
define the future of order and disorder.
define the future of order and disorder.
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Mislim da će nestabilni gradovi definisati
budućnost reda i nereda.
budućnost reda i nereda.
02:50
That's because warfare
and humanitarian action
and humanitarian action
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To je zato što će ratovi
i humanitarna dela
i humanitarna dela
02:53
are going to be
concentrated in our cities,
concentrated in our cities,
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biti skoncentrisani u našim gradovima
02:55
and the fight for development,
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i borbe za razvoj,
bilo da je u pitanju iskorenje siromaštva,
02:57
whether you define that
as eradicating poverty,
as eradicating poverty,
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ili globalni zdavstveni sistem,
ili borba protiv klimatskih promena
ili borba protiv klimatskih promena
02:59
universal healthcare,
beating back climate change,
beating back climate change,
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03:02
will be won or lost in the shantytowns,
slums and favelas of our cities.
slums and favelas of our cities.
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će se dobijati ili gubiti u siromašnim
četvrtima i straćarama naših gradova.
četvrtima i straćarama naših gradova.
03:07
I want to talk to you about four megarisks
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Želim da pričam o 4 mega rizika
03:10
that I think will define
fragility in our time,
fragility in our time,
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za koja smatram da će definisati
nestabilnost našeg vremena,
nestabilnost našeg vremena,
03:13
and if we can get to grips with these,
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i mislim da ako se uhvatimo
u koštac s njima
u koštac s njima
možemo da nešto uradimo
povodom onog problema sa nasiljem.
povodom onog problema sa nasiljem.
03:16
I think we can do something
with that lethal violence problem.
with that lethal violence problem.
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03:18
So let me start with some good news.
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Počeću sa lepim vestima.
03:21
Fact is, we're living in the most
peaceful moment in human history.
peaceful moment in human history.
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Činjenica je da živimo u najmirnijem
trenutku u istoriji čovečanstva.
trenutku u istoriji čovečanstva.
03:26
Steven Pinker and others have shown how
the intensity and frequency of conflict
the intensity and frequency of conflict
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Stiven Pinker i ostali su pokazali
kako je zabeležena najniža stopa
kako je zabeležena najniža stopa
03:30
is actually at an all-time low.
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sukoba u istoriji.
03:33
Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,
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Gaza, Sirija, Sudan, Ukrajina -
03:37
as ghastly as these conflicts are,
and they are horrific,
and they are horrific,
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koliko god da su stravični ovi sukobi,
a jesu užasni,
a jesu užasni,
03:41
they represent a relatively
small blip upwards
small blip upwards
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oni predstavljaju relativno mali rast
03:43
in a 50-year-long secular decline.
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unutar jednog 50-godišnjeg pada.
03:46
What's more, we're seeing
a dramatic reduction in homicide.
a dramatic reduction in homicide.
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Pored toga, svedoci smo
velikog pada stope ubistva.
velikog pada stope ubistva.
03:51
Manuel Eisner and others have shown
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Manuel Ajsner i ostali su pokazali
03:53
that for centuries, we've seen
this incredible drop in murder,
this incredible drop in murder,
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da već vekovima stopa ubistava
drastično opada,
drastično opada,
03:57
especially in the West.
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pogotovo na Zapadu.
03:59
Most Northern cities today are 100 times
safer than they were just 100 years ago.
safer than they were just 100 years ago.
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Većina severnjačkih gradova su danas 100
puta sigurniji nego pre 100 godina.
puta sigurniji nego pre 100 godina.
04:04
These two facts -- the decline in armed
conflict and the decline in murder --
conflict and the decline in murder --
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Ove dve činjenice -
pad u oružanim sukobima i pad ubistava,
pad u oružanim sukobima i pad ubistava,
04:08
are amongst the most extraordinary,
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neka su od najneverovatnijih
04:09
if unheralded, accomplishments
of human history,
of human history,
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postignuća u istoriji čovečanstva,
04:12
and we should be really excited, right?
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i trebalo bi da smo jako uzbuđeni.
04:15
Well, yeah, we should.
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Da, trebalo bi.
04:17
There's just one problem:
These two scourges are still with us.
These two scourges are still with us.
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Samo postoji jedan problem:
ove dve stvari nas i dalje muče.
ove dve stvari nas i dalje muče.
04:22
You see, 525,000 people --
men, women, boys and girls --
men, women, boys and girls --
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525.000 ljudi, muškaraca,
žena, dečaka i devojčica,
žena, dečaka i devojčica,
04:28
die violently every single year.
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umre nasilnim putem, svake godine.
04:31
Research I've been doing
with Keith Krause and others
with Keith Krause and others
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Istraživanje koje sam obavio
sa Kitom Krausom i ostalima
sa Kitom Krausom i ostalima
04:33
has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000
people are dying in war zones violently.
people are dying in war zones violently.
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pokazalo je da između 50.000 i 60.000
ljudi pogine u ratnim zonama.
ljudi pogine u ratnim zonama.
04:39
The rest, almost 500,000 people,
are dying outside of conflict zones.
are dying outside of conflict zones.
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Ostatak, skoro 500.000 ljudi
umre izvan zona sukoba.
umre izvan zona sukoba.
04:44
In other words, 10 times more people
are dying outside of war than inside war.
are dying outside of war than inside war.
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Drugim rečima, 10 puta više ljudi
umre van rata nego u ratu.
umre van rata nego u ratu.
04:50
What's more, violence is moving south,
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Štaviše, nasilje se pomera prema jugu,
04:53
to Latin America and the Caribbean,
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do Južne Amerike i Kariba,
04:56
to parts of Central and Southern Africa,
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do delova centralne i južne Afrike,
04:58
and to bits of the Middle East
and Central Asia.
and Central Asia.
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i do delova Srednjeg istoka
i centralne Azije.
i centralne Azije.
05:01
Forty of the 50 most dangerous
cities in the world
cities in the world
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Od 50 najopasnijih gradova u svetu,
05:04
are right here in Latin America,
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njih 40 je ovde u Južnoj Americi,
05:05
13 in Brazil,
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13 u Brazilu.
05:07
and the most dangerous of all, it's
San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
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Najopasniji od svih je San Pedro Sula,
drugi po veličini grad u Hondurasu,
drugi po veličini grad u Hondurasu,
05:12
with a staggering homicide rate
of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
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čija je vrtoglava stopa ubistva 187
ubistava na 100.000 ljudi.
ubistava na 100.000 ljudi.
05:17
That's 23 times the global average.
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To je 23 puta više
u odnosu na svetski prosek.
u odnosu na svetski prosek.
05:20
Now, if violence is
re-concentrating geographically,
re-concentrating geographically,
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Ako nasilje geografski
menja svoju lokaciju,
menja svoju lokaciju,
05:23
it's also being reconfigured
to the world's new topography,
to the world's new topography,
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ono se takođe rekonfiguriše
u svetskoj topografiji,
u svetskoj topografiji,
05:26
because when it comes to cities,
the world ain't flat,
the world ain't flat,
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jer kada su u pitanju gradovi,
svet nije ravna linija,
svet nije ravna linija,
05:28
like Thomas Friedman likes to say.
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kao što Tomas Fridmen voli da kaže.
05:31
It's spiky.
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On ide cik-cak.
05:32
The dominance of the city
as the primary mode of urban living
as the primary mode of urban living
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Dominantnost grada
kao primarnog načina urbanog života
kao primarnog načina urbanog života
05:36
is one of the most extraordinary
demographic reversals in history,
demographic reversals in history,
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jedan je od najneverovatnijih
demografskih preokreta u istoriji,
demografskih preokreta u istoriji,
05:40
and it all happened so fast.
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i sve se desilo jako brzo.
05:43
You all know the figures, right?
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Svi vi znate statistiku, zar ne?
05:45
There's 7.3 billion people
in the world today;
in the world today;
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Na svetu danas živi 7,3 milijarde ljudi
05:47
there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.
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i do 2050. biće ih 9,6.
05:49
But consider this one fact:
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Uzmite u obzir ovu činjenicu:
05:51
In the 1800s, one in 30
people lived in cities,
people lived in cities,
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u 19. veku jedna od 30 osoba
je živela u gradu,
je živela u gradu,
05:55
today it's one in two,
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danas je to jedna od dve,
05:57
and tomorrow virtually everyone
is going to be there.
is going to be there.
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a sutra će skoro svi biti tamo.
06:00
And this expansion in urbanization
is going to be neither even nor equitable.
is going to be neither even nor equitable.
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Širenje usled urbanizacije neće biti
niti ravnomerno niti jednako za sve.
niti ravnomerno niti jednako za sve.
06:04
The vast majority, 90 percent,
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Velika većina, 90 posto,
06:06
will be happening in the South,
in cities of the South.
in cities of the South.
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će se odvijati na jugu, u gradovima juga.
06:10
So urban geographers and demographers,
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Urbani geografi i demografi kažu
06:13
they tell us that it's not necessarily
the size or even the density of cities
the size or even the density of cities
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da veličina i gustoća
u gradovima ne mora biti
u gradovima ne mora biti
06:18
that predicts violence, no.
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isključiv pokazatelj nasilja. Ne.
06:20
Tokyo, with 35 million people,
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Tokio sa 35 miliona ljudi je jedna
06:22
is one of the largest, and some might say
safest, urban metropolises in the world.
safest, urban metropolises in the world.
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od najvećih, a neki kažu, i najsigurnijih
urbanih metropola na svetu.
urbanih metropola na svetu.
06:27
No, it's the speed of
urbanization that matters.
urbanization that matters.
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Ovde je bitna brzina urbanizacije.
06:30
I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's
one of the key drivers of fragility.
one of the key drivers of fragility.
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Ja to zovem turbo-urbanizacijom i ona je
jedna od ključnih pokretača nestabilnosti.
jedna od ključnih pokretača nestabilnosti.
06:36
When you think about the incredible
expansion of these cities,
expansion of these cities,
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Kada pomislite na neverovatno
širenje ovih gradova
širenje ovih gradova
06:41
and you think about turbo-urbanization,
think about Karachi.
think about Karachi.
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i pomislite na turbo-urbanizaciju,
pomislite na Karači.
pomislite na Karači.
06:45
Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947,
a hustling, bustling city.
a hustling, bustling city.
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Karači je 1947. bio užurban grad
od oko pola miliona stanovnika.
od oko pola miliona stanovnika.
06:51
Today, it's 21 million people,
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Danas on ima 21 milion stanovnika,
06:54
and apart from accounting
for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
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i osim što zauzima 3 četvrtine BDP-a
u Pakistanu,
u Pakistanu,
06:58
it's also one of the most violent
cities in South Asia.
cities in South Asia.
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on je i jedan od najnasilnijih gradova
u južnoj Aziji.
u južnoj Aziji.
07:01
Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,
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Daka, Lagos, Kinšasa.
07:04
these cities are now 40 times larger
than they were in the 1950s.
than they were in the 1950s.
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Ovi gradovi su 40 puta veći
nego što su bili '50-ih.
nego što su bili '50-ih.
07:09
Now take a look at New York.
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Pogledajmo sada Njujork.
07:11
The Big Apple, it took 150 years
to get to eight million people.
to get to eight million people.
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Velikoj jabuci je trebalo 150 godina
da dostigne 8 miliona ljudi.
da dostigne 8 miliona ljudi.
07:16
São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15
to reach that same interval.
to reach that same interval.
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Sao Paolu i Meksiko Sitiju
je trebalo 15 za isti rezultat.
je trebalo 15 za isti rezultat.
07:21
Now, what do these medium,
large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
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Kako ovi osrednji, veliki, mega i hiper
gradovi izgledaju?
gradovi izgledaju?
07:25
What is their profile?
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Kakav je njihov profil?
07:27
Well, for one thing, they're young.
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Kao prvo, oni su mladi.
07:29
What we're seeing in many of them
is the rise of the youth bulge.
is the rise of the youth bulge.
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Ono što viđamo kod mnogih
je nagli porast mlade populacije.
je nagli porast mlade populacije.
07:32
Now, this is actually a good news story.
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Ovo su zapravo dobre vesti.
07:34
It's a function of reductions
in child mortality rates.
in child mortality rates.
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Služi za smanjenje stope smrtnosti dece.
Ali moramo se paziti
naglog porasta mlade populacije.
naglog porasta mlade populacije.
07:37
But the youth bulge is something
we've got to watch.
we've got to watch.
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07:39
What it basically means
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To u suštini znači
07:41
is the proportion of young people
living in our fragile cities
living in our fragile cities
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da je razmer mladih ljudi koji žive
u našim nestabilnim gradovima
u našim nestabilnim gradovima
07:44
is much larger than those living
in our healthier and wealthier ones.
in our healthier and wealthier ones.
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mnogo veći od onih koji žive u našim
zdravijim i bogatijim gradovima.
zdravijim i bogatijim gradovima.
07:47
In some fragile cities,
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U nekim nestabilim gradovima
07:49
75 percent of the population
is under the age of 30.
is under the age of 30.
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75 posto populacije ima ispod 30 godina.
07:52
Think about that:
Three in four people are under 30.
Three in four people are under 30.
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Razmislite o ovome: tri od četvoro ljudi
ima ispod 30 godina.
ima ispod 30 godina.
07:57
It's like Palo Alto on steroids.
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To je kao Palo Alto na steroidima.
08:00
Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,
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Ako pogledate Mogadišu,
08:03
in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.
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srednja dob je 16 godina.
08:07
Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.
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Isto važi i za Daku, Dili i Kabul.
08:10
And Tokyo? It's 46.
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A Tokio? 46.
08:12
Same for most Western European cities.
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Isto važi i za većinu zapadne Evrope.
08:16
Now, it's not just youth
that necessarily predicts violence.
that necessarily predicts violence.
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Ne mora značiti da samo omladina
uslovljava nasilje.
uslovljava nasilje.
08:19
That's one factor among many,
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2044
To je jedan od mnogih faktora,
ali omladina u kombinaciji
sa nezaposlenjem, manjkom obrazovanja
sa nezaposlenjem, manjkom obrazovanja
08:21
but youthfulness combined
with unemployment, lack of education,
with unemployment, lack of education,
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08:24
and -- this is the kicker --
being male, is a deadly proposition.
being male, is a deadly proposition.
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i, pazite sad ovo, muškom populacijom
je smrtonosna jednačina.
je smrtonosna jednačina.
08:28
They're statistically correlated,
all those risk factors, with youth,
all those risk factors, with youth,
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Ti faktori rizika su statistički
povezani sa omladinom
povezani sa omladinom
08:32
and they tend to relate
to increases in violence.
to increases in violence.
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i teže da indiciraju porast nasilja.
08:36
Now, for those of you who are
parents of teenage sons,
parents of teenage sons,
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Za one koji su roditelji
sinova tinejdžera,
sinova tinejdžera,
08:39
you know what I'm talking about, right?
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507358
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znate o čemu ja ovde govorim, zar ne?
08:41
Just imagine your boy
without any structure
without any structure
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Zamislite svog dečaka
bez ikakve strukture,
bez ikakve strukture,
08:44
with those unruly friends of his,
out there cavorting about.
out there cavorting about.
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zajedno sa svojim neposlušnim prijateljima
kako prave dar-mar.
kako prave dar-mar.
08:47
Now, take away the parents,
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2191
Sada uklonite roditelje,
08:50
take away the education,
limit the education possibilities,
limit the education possibilities,
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uklonite obrazovanje i ograničite
mogućnosti za obrazovanje,
mogućnosti za obrazovanje,
08:54
sprinkle in a little bit of drugs,
alcohol and guns,
alcohol and guns,
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začinite to sa malo droge,
alkohola i oružja
alkohola i oružja
08:57
and sit back and watch the fireworks.
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3203
i zavalite se i uživajte u vatrometu.
09:00
The implications are disconcerting.
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Implikacije su uznemirujuće.
09:03
Right here in Brazil,
the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
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Ovde u Brazilu životni vek je 73,6.
09:06
If you live in Rio, I'm sorry,
shave off two right there.
shave off two right there.
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Ako živite u Riju, smanjite to za dve.
09:10
But if you're young, you're uneducated,
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Ali ako ste mladi, neobrazovani,
09:12
you lack employment,
you're black, and you're male,
you're black, and you're male,
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2514
nezaposleni crnac,
09:15
your life expectancy drops
to less than 60 years old.
to less than 60 years old.
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vaš životni vek pada
na manje od 60 godina.
na manje od 60 godina.
09:18
There's a reason why youthfulness
and violence are the number one killers
and violence are the number one killers
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Postoji razlog zašto su mladost i nasilje
glavni faktori smrtnosti
glavni faktori smrtnosti
09:23
in this country.
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2341
u ovoj zemlji.
09:25
Okay, so it's not all doom
and gloom in our cities.
and gloom in our cities.
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Ali našim gradovima ne hara samo propast.
09:28
After all, cities are hubs of innovation,
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Oni su ipak žarišta inovacija,
09:31
dynamism, prosperity,
excitement, connectivity.
excitement, connectivity.
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dinamike, prosperiteta, uzbuđenja, veza.
09:34
They're where the smart people gather.
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Oni su mesta gde se pametni ljudi sastaju.
09:36
And those young people I just mentioned,
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Ti mladi ljudi koje sam upravo spomenuo
09:38
they're more digitally savvy
and tech-aware than ever before.
and tech-aware than ever before.
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3644
su mnogo više
digitalno osvešćeni nego ikada.
digitalno osvešćeni nego ikada.
09:42
And this explosion, the Internet,
and mobile technology,
and mobile technology,
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Ova eksplozija interneta
i mobilne tehnologije
i mobilne tehnologije
09:46
means that the digital divide
separating the North and the South
separating the North and the South
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znači da se smanjuje digitalna granica
koja razdvaja sever i jug
koja razdvaja sever i jug
09:49
between countries
and within them, is shrinking.
and within them, is shrinking.
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između zemalja i unutar njih.
09:53
But as we've heard so many times,
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Ali kao što smo mnogo puta čuli,
09:54
these new technologies
are dual-edged, right?
are dual-edged, right?
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2732
ove nove tehnologije
su mač sa dve oštrice.
su mač sa dve oštrice.
09:57
Take the case of law enforcement.
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Uzmite za primer sprovođenje zakona.
09:59
Police around the world are starting
to use remote sensing and big data
to use remote sensing and big data
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3587
Policija širom sveta počinje da koristi
daljinske senzore i velike podatke
daljinske senzore i velike podatke
10:03
to anticipate crime.
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kako bi predvidela zločin.
10:04
Some cops are able to predict
criminal violence before it even happens.
criminal violence before it even happens.
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Neki policajci mogu da predvide nasilje
pre nego što se i desi.
pre nego što se i desi.
10:09
The future crime scenario,
it's here today,
it's here today,
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Scenario budućih zločina je danas ovde
10:12
and we've got to be careful.
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i mi moramo da budemo pažljivi.
10:14
We have to manage the issues
of the public safety
of the public safety
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Moramo da radimo
na pitanjima javne bezbednosti
na pitanjima javne bezbednosti
10:16
against rights to individual privacy.
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u odnosu na prava
na individualnu privatnost.
na individualnu privatnost.
10:18
But it's not just the cops
who are innovating.
who are innovating.
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2151
Nisu samo policajci inovativni.
10:21
We've heard extraordinary activities
of civil society groups
of civil society groups
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2844
Čuli smo o neverovatnim aktivnostima
grupa građanskog društva
grupa građanskog društva
10:23
who are engaging in local
and global collective action,
and global collective action,
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611982
3135
koje se angažuju u lokalnim
i globalnim kolektivnim akcijama
i globalnim kolektivnim akcijama
10:27
and this is leading to digital protest
and real revolution.
and real revolution.
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što vodi do digitalnog protesta
i prave revolucije.
i prave revolucije.
10:31
But most worrying
of all are criminal gangs
of all are criminal gangs
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3396
Ali najviše od svega brinu
kriminalne bande
kriminalne bande
10:35
who are going online
and starting to colonize cyberspace.
and starting to colonize cyberspace.
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2909
koje se šire onlajn i počinju
da kolonizuju sajber prostor.
da kolonizuju sajber prostor.
10:38
In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico,
where I've been working,
where I've been working,
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3132
U Sijudad Huarezu u Meksiku gde sam radio,
10:41
groups like the Zetas
and the Sinaloa cartel
and the Sinaloa cartel
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2354
grupe poput Zeta i kartela Sinaloa
10:43
are hijacking social media.
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1621
otimaju društvene medije.
10:45
They're using it to recruit,
to sell their products,
to sell their products,
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2584
Koriste ih za regrutaciju
i prodaju proizvoda,
i prodaju proizvoda,
10:47
to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.
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2230
za iznudu, zastrašivanje i ubijanje.
10:49
Violence is going virtual.
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3183
Nasilje prelazi u virtuelan prostor.
10:53
So this is just a partial sketch
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2133
Ovo je samo delimična skica
10:55
of a fast-moving and dynamic
and complex situation.
and complex situation.
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2676
ubrzane, dinamične i složene situacije.
10:57
I mean, there are many other megarisks
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Postoje i drugi mega rizici
10:59
that are going to define
fragility in our time,
fragility in our time,
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2435
koji će definisati nestabilnost
u našem vremenu
u našem vremenu
11:02
not least income inequality,
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650242
1899
gde će se sigurno naći
i nejednakosti u prihodima,
i nejednakosti u prihodima,
11:04
poverty, climate change, impunity.
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3738
siromaštvo, promene u klimi, nekažnjivost.
11:07
But we're facing a stark dilemma
202
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2345
Ali suočeni smo sa potpunom dilemom
11:10
where some cities are going to thrive
and drive global growth
and drive global growth
203
658224
4059
gde će neki gradovi prosperirati
i biti globalni pokretači rasta,
i biti globalni pokretači rasta,
11:14
and others are going to stumble
and pull it backwards.
and pull it backwards.
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2936
a drugi će posrtati i povlačiti ih dole.
11:17
If we're going to change course,
we need to start a conversation.
we need to start a conversation.
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3226
Ako želimo da promenimo pravac,
moraćemo da započnemo dijalog.
moraćemo da započnemo dijalog.
11:20
We can't only focus
on those cities that work,
on those cities that work,
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2991
Ne možemo samo da se fokusiramo
na gradove koji funkcionišu,
na gradove koji funkcionišu,
11:23
the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,
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2508
na Singapure, Kuala Lumpure,
11:25
the Dubais, the Shanghais.
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1880
Dubaije, Šangaje.
11:27
We've got to bring those fragile cities
into the conversation.
into the conversation.
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4204
Moramo da u dijalog uvedemo
i nestabilne gradove.
i nestabilne gradove.
11:32
One way to do this might be
to start twinning
to start twinning
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2530
Jedna od strategija bi mogla biti
bratimljenje
bratimljenje
naših nestabilnih gradova sa zdravijim
i imućnijim gradovima;
i imućnijim gradovima;
11:34
our fragile cities with our healthier
and wealthier ones,
and wealthier ones,
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2740
11:37
kickstarting a process of learning
and collaboration
and collaboration
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685298
2513
započinjanje procesa učenja i saradnje,
11:39
and sharing of practices,
of what works and what doesn't.
of what works and what doesn't.
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4239
i deljenja praksi,
onoga što funkcioniše i ne.
onoga što funkcioniše i ne.
11:44
A wonderful example of this is coming
from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
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Divan primer toga dolazi
iz El Salvadora i Los Anđelesa
iz El Salvadora i Los Anđelesa
11:47
where the mayors in San Salvador
and Los Angeles are collaborating
and Los Angeles are collaborating
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4160
gde gradonačelnici San Salvadora
i Los Anđelesa sarađuju
i Los Anđelesa sarađuju
11:51
on getting ex-gang members
to work with current gang members,
to work with current gang members,
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3953
tako što nagovaraju bivše članove bandi
da rade sa trenutnim članovima bandi,
da rade sa trenutnim članovima bandi,
11:55
offering tutoring, education,
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daju im instrukcije, obrazovanje
11:58
and in the process are helping
incubate cease-fires and truces,
incubate cease-fires and truces,
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3320
i u procesu toga pomažu u izgradnji
pomirenja i prekidu vatre.
pomirenja i prekidu vatre.
12:01
and we've seen homicide rates
go down in San Salvador,
go down in San Salvador,
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2547
Stopa ubistva u San Salvadoru,
12:04
once the world's most violent city,
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1823
jednom od najnasilnijih gradova,
12:06
by 50 percent.
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1644
se smanjila za 50 posto.
Možemo i da se fokusiramo
na žarišne gradove ali i žarišne tačke.
na žarišne gradove ali i žarišne tačke.
12:07
We can also focus
on hot cities, but also hot spots.
on hot cities, but also hot spots.
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2549
12:10
Place and location matter fundamentally
in shaping violence in our cities.
in shaping violence in our cities.
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4302
Lokacija je od suštinske važnosti
u oblikovanju nasilja u našim gradovima.
u oblikovanju nasilja u našim gradovima.
12:14
Did you know that between
one and two percent
one and two percent
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2555
Da li ste znali da između
1 i 2 posto adresa
1 i 2 posto adresa
12:17
of street addresses in any fragile city
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725283
2065
u bilo kom nestabilnom gradu
12:19
can predict up to 99 percent
of violent crime?
of violent crime?
226
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3702
može da predvidi do 99% nasilnih zločina?
12:23
Take the case of São Paulo,
where I've been working.
where I've been working.
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2564
Uzmite primer Sao Paola gde sam radio.
12:25
It's gone from being Brazil's most
dangerous city to one of its safest,
dangerous city to one of its safest,
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3753
Prešao je iz najopasnijeg grada u Brazilu
u jedan od najsigurnijih,
u jedan od najsigurnijih,
12:29
and it did this by doubling down
229
737367
1959
a to je postigao udvostručivši
12:31
on information collection,
hot spot mapping, and police reform,
hot spot mapping, and police reform,
230
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3231
sakupljanje informacija
i mapiranje žarišta i policijsku reformu.
i mapiranje žarišta i policijsku reformu.
12:34
and in the process, it dropped homicide
by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
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5038
U samo 10 godina smanjio je broj ubistava
za 70 posto.
za 70 posto.
Takođe treba da se fokusiramo
i na žarišne grupe ljudi.
i na žarišne grupe ljudi.
12:39
We also got to focus on those hot people.
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2455
12:42
It's tragic, but being young,
unemployed, uneducated, male,
unemployed, uneducated, male,
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4089
Tragično je, ali ako ste mlad, nezaposlen
i neobrazovan muškarac
i neobrazovan muškarac
12:46
increases the risks
of being killed and killing.
of being killed and killing.
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3997
to povećava rizik
da budete ubijeni i da ubijete.
da budete ubijeni i da ubijete.
12:50
We have to break this cycle of violence
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2685
Moramo da prekinemo začarani krug nasilja
12:52
and get in there early with our children,
our youngest children,
our youngest children,
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3334
i da počnemo rano,
sa svojom najmlađom decom
sa svojom najmlađom decom
12:56
and valorize them, not stigmatize them.
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2609
i ohrabrimo ih, a ne stigmatišemo.
12:59
There's wonderful work that's happening
that I've been involved with
that I've been involved with
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3370
Trenutno se odvija divan posao
u koji sam i ja umešan
u koji sam i ja umešan
13:02
in Kingston, Jamaica
and right here in Rio,
and right here in Rio,
239
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2291
u Kingstonu na Jamajci i ovde u Riju,
13:04
which is putting education,
employment, recreation
employment, recreation
240
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3298
koji pruža obrazovanje, zaposlenje
i rekreaciju za ove visoko rizične grupe,
13:08
up front for these high-risk groups,
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2156
13:10
and as a result, we're seeing violence
going down in their communities.
going down in their communities.
242
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3355
a rezultat je pad nasilja
u njihovim zajednicama.
u njihovim zajednicama.
Moramo da učinimo naše gradove sigurnijim,
inkluzivnijim i boljim za život za sve.
inkluzivnijim i boljim za život za sve.
13:13
We've also got to make our cities safer,
more inclusive, and livable for all.
more inclusive, and livable for all.
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3678
13:17
The fact is, social cohesion matters.
244
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3767
Činjenica je
da je društvena kohezija bitna.
da je društvena kohezija bitna.
13:21
Mobility matters in our cities.
245
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2480
Mobilnost je bitna za naše gradove.
13:23
We've got to get away from this model
of segregation, exclusion,
of segregation, exclusion,
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3070
Moramo da se udaljimo od ovog modela
segregacije i izopštenja
segregacije i izopštenja
13:26
and cities with walls.
247
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1416
i gradova sa zidinama.
13:28
My favorite example of how to do this
comes from Medellín.
comes from Medellín.
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2810
Moj omiljeni primer dolazi iz Medijena.
13:30
When I lived in Colombia
in the late 1990s,
in the late 1990s,
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Kada sam živeo u Kolumbiji kasnih '90-ih,
13:32
Medellín was the murder capital
of the world, but it changed course,
of the world, but it changed course,
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Medijen je bio prestonica ubistva u svetu,
ali je promenio svoj pravac
ali je promenio svoj pravac
13:36
and it did this by deliberately investing
in its low-income and most violent areas
in its low-income and most violent areas
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tako što je svesno uložio u siromašna,
najnasilnija područja
najnasilnija područja
13:40
and integrating them
with the middle-class ones
with the middle-class ones
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i uključio ih u područja srednje klase
13:43
through a network of cable cars,
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kroz mrežu tramvaja,
13:44
of public transport,
and first-class infrastructure,
and first-class infrastructure,
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javnog prevoza
i prvoklasne infrastrukture.
i prvoklasne infrastrukture.
13:47
and in the process, it dropped homicide
by 79 percent in just under two decades.
by 79 percent in just under two decades.
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U procesu je smanjio broj ubistava za 79%
u samo dve decenije.
u samo dve decenije.
13:52
And finally, there's technology.
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Na kraju, tu je tehnologija.
13:55
Technology has enormous
promise but also peril.
promise but also peril.
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Tehnologija nosi veliki potencijal,
ali i veliki rizik.
ali i veliki rizik.
13:57
We've seen examples here
of extraordinary innovation,
of extraordinary innovation,
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Videli smo primere neverovatnih inovacija
i puno njih je izašlo iz ove prostorije.
14:00
and much of it coming from this room,
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14:02
The police are engaging
in predictive analytics.
in predictive analytics.
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Policija se bavi analizom predviđanja.
14:04
Citizens are engaging
in new crowdsourcing solutions.
in new crowdsourcing solutions.
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Građani zajedničkim naporima
pronalaze nova rešenja.
pronalaze nova rešenja.
14:07
Even my own group is involved
in developing applications
in developing applications
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Čak je i moja grupa uključena
u razradu aplikacija
u razradu aplikacija
14:09
to provide more accountability over police
and increase safety among citizens.
and increase safety among citizens.
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kako bi pokazali više odgovornosti
od policije i povećali sigurnost.
od policije i povećali sigurnost.
14:14
But we need to be careful.
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Ali moramo da budemo pažljivi.
14:17
If I have one single
message for you, it's this:
message for you, it's this:
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Ako imam samo jednu poruku,
onda je to ova:
onda je to ova:
14:21
There is nothing inevitable
about lethal violence,
about lethal violence,
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smrtonosno nasilje se može izbeći
14:24
and we can make our cities safer.
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i mi možemo učiniti
naše gradove sigurnijim.
naše gradove sigurnijim.
14:29
Folks, we have the opportunity
of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
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Imamo priliku života
da prepolovimo stopu ubistava
da prepolovimo stopu ubistava
14:35
in half within our lifetime.
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za naših života.
14:38
So I have just one question:
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Imam samo jedno pitanje:
14:39
What are we waiting for?
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šta čekamo?
14:41
Thank you.
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Hvala.
14:43
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Muggah - Megacities expertRobert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally.
Why you should listen
Robert Muggah drills down through shadowy data on arms trafficking, urban violence and resilience in search of answers for a rapidly urbanizing society’s most troubling questions: Why are cities so violent, and increasingly fragile? Why are conflicts within nations replacing conflicts between them? And what strategies can we implement to reduce violence?
Muggah's high-tech toolkit includes new ways for citizens to collect, collate and understand data, such as the mapping arms data (MAD) tool. As the research director of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation, he developed the tool in collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and with Google Ideas, winning accolades for the transparency it brings to the debate.
Robert Muggah | Speaker | TED.com