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Hannah Fry: The mathematics of love
Hana Fraj (Hannah Fry): Matematika ljubavi
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Pronalaženje pravog partnera nije jednostavno - ali da li je uopšte matematički moguće? U šarmantnom govoru, matematičarka Hana Fraj predstavlja šablone u našem traganju za ljubavlju i daje tri najbolja saveta (matematički dokazana!) za pronalaženje te posebne osobe.
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today I want to talk to you
about the mathematics of love.
about the mathematics of love.
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Danas želim da vam pričam
o matematici ljubavi.
o matematici ljubavi.
00:16
Now, I think that we can all agree
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Mislim da svi možemo da se složimo
da su matematičari
da su matematičari
00:18
that mathematicians
are famously excellent at finding love.
are famously excellent at finding love.
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čuveni po tome
da sjajno pronalaze ljubav.
da sjajno pronalaze ljubav.
00:23
But it's not just
because of our dashing personalities,
because of our dashing personalities,
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Ali to nije samo
zbog naših očaravajućih ličnosti,
zbog naših očaravajućih ličnosti,
00:27
superior conversational skills
and excellent pencil cases.
and excellent pencil cases.
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vrhunskih veština razgovora
i odličnih pernica za olovke.
i odličnih pernica za olovke.
00:31
It's also because we've actually done
an awful lot of work into the maths
an awful lot of work into the maths
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To je i zbog toga zato što smo zapravo
uložili mnogo truda u proračunavanje
uložili mnogo truda u proračunavanje
00:36
of how to find the perfect partner.
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načina za pronalaženje savršenog partnera.
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper
on the subject, which is entitled,
on the subject, which is entitled,
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U mom omiljenom radu na ovu temu,
koji se zove
koji se zove
00:41
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
(Laughter) --
(Laughter) --
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"Zašto nemam devojku" -
(Smeh) -
(Smeh) -
00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate
his chances of finding love.
his chances of finding love.
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Piter Bakus pokušava da oceni
svoje šanse da pronađe ljubav.
svoje šanse da pronađe ljubav.
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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Piter nije pohlepan čovek.
00:51
Of all of the available women in the U.K.,
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Od svih slobodnih žena
u Ujedinjenom kraljevstvu,
u Ujedinjenom kraljevstvu,
00:53
all Peter's looking for
is somebody who lives near him,
is somebody who lives near him,
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Piter samo traži nekoga
ko živi blizu njega,
ko živi blizu njega,
00:56
somebody in the right age range,
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nekoga ko je podesnog starosnog doba,
00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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nekoga sa fakultetskom diplomom,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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nekoga s kime bi se
verovatno dobro slagao,
verovatno dobro slagao,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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nekoga ko je verovatno privlačan
01:05
somebody who's likely
to find him attractive.
to find him attractive.
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i nekoga ko bi verovatno
njega smatrao privlačnim.
njega smatrao privlačnim.
01:08
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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Došao je do procene od 26 žena
u celom Ujedinjenom kraljevstvu.
u celom Ujedinjenom kraljevstvu.
01:17
It's not looking very good,
is it Peter?
is it Peter?
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Piteru, ne izgleda baš dobro, zar ne?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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Da stavimo to u kontekst,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer
than the best estimates
than the best estimates
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to je oko 400 puta manje od procena
01:24
of how many intelligent
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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broja inteligentnih oblika života
u svemiru.
u svemiru.
01:28
And it also gives Peter
a 1 in 285,000 chance
a 1 in 285,000 chance
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To Piteru takođe daje šansu
od 1 u 285 000
od 1 u 285 000
01:33
of bumping into any one
of these special ladies
of these special ladies
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da naleti na jednu od ovih posebnih dama
01:35
on a given night out.
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bilo koje veče.
01:37
I'd like to think
that's why mathematicians
that's why mathematicians
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Mislim da se matematičari baš zbog toga
01:39
don't really bother
going on nights out anymore.
going on nights out anymore.
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više naročito ni ne trude da izlaze.
01:42
The thing is that I personally
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Stvar je u tome da ja lično
01:44
don't subscribe
to such a pessimistic view.
to such a pessimistic view.
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nisam tako pesimističnog stava.
01:47
Because I know,
just as well as all of you do,
just as well as all of you do,
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Zato što ja znam, baš kao i svi vi,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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da ljubav zapravo ne funkcioniše tako.
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered
and rational and easily predictable.
and rational and easily predictable.
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Ljudske emocije nisu uredno složene
i racionalne i lako predvidive.
i racionalne i lako predvidive.
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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Ali takođe znam da to ne znači
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something
that it can offer us
that it can offer us
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da matematika nema nešto da nam ponudi,
02:03
because, love, as with most of life,
is full of patterns
is full of patterns
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zato što je ljubav, kao i većina stvari
u životu, prepuna šablona,
u životu, prepuna šablona,
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately,
all about the study of patterns.
all about the study of patterns.
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a matematika se suštinski bavi
proučavanjem šablona.
proučavanjem šablona.
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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Šabloni za sve od predviđanja vremena
do variranja vrednosti na berzi,
do variranja vrednosti na berzi,
02:15
to the movement of the planets
or the growth of cities.
or the growth of cities.
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preko kretanja planeta do rasta gradova.
02:18
And if we're being honest,
none of those things
none of those things
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Ako ćemo biti iskreni, ništa od toga
02:21
are exactly neatly ordered
and easily predictable, either.
and easily predictable, either.
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takođe nije uredno složeno
i lako predvidivo.
i lako predvidivo.
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics
is so powerful that it has the potential
is so powerful that it has the potential
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Verujem da je matematika toliko moćna
da ima potencijal
da ima potencijal
02:29
to offer us a new way of looking
at almost anything.
at almost anything.
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da nam ponudi novi način gledanja
skoro na sve.
skoro na sve.
02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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Čak i nešto tako misteriozno
poput ljubavi.
poput ljubavi.
02:37
And so, to try to persuade you
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Da bih pokušala da vas ubedim u to
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent
and relevant mathematics is,
and relevant mathematics is,
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kako je matematika neverovatna,
odlična i bitna,
odlična i bitna,
02:43
I want to give you my top three
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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želim da vam dam moja najbolja tri
matematički dokaziva saveta za ljubav.
matematički dokaziva saveta za ljubav.
02:51
Okay, so Top Tip #1:
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U redu, Savet broj 1:
02:53
How to win at online dating.
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kako biti uspešan
u sastancima preko interneta.
u sastancima preko interneta.
02:58
So my favorite online dating
website is OkCupid,
website is OkCupid,
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Moj omiljeni sajt za upoznavanje
preko interneta je OkCupid,
preko interneta je OkCupid,
03:02
not least because it was started
by a group of mathematicians.
by a group of mathematicians.
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dobrim delom zbog toga
što ga je osnovala grupa matematičara.
što ga je osnovala grupa matematičara.
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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Pošto su matematičari,
03:07
they have been collecting data
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skupljali su podatke
03:09
on everybody who uses their site
for almost a decade.
for almost a decade.
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o svakom ko koristi njihov sajt,
skoro deceniju.
skoro deceniju.
03:11
And they've been trying
to search for patterns
to search for patterns
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Pokušali su da nađu šablone u tome
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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kako pričamo o sebi
03:16
and the way that we
interact with each other
interact with each other
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i u načinu na koji međusobno komuniciramo
03:18
on an online dating website.
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na internet sajtu za upoznavanje.
03:19
And they've come up with some
seriously interesting findings.
seriously interesting findings.
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Došli su do nekih
veoma zanimljivih rezultata.
veoma zanimljivih rezultata.
03:22
But my particular favorite
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Ali moj omiljeni je taj
03:24
is that it turns out
that on an online dating website,
that on an online dating website,
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da se ispostavlja
da na internet sajtu za upoznavanje
da na internet sajtu za upoznavanje
03:27
how attractive you are
does not dictate how popular you are,
does not dictate how popular you are,
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to koliko ste privlačni
ne povlači to koliko ste popularni,
ne povlači to koliko ste popularni,
03:33
and actually, having people
think that you're ugly
think that you're ugly
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i zapravo kada ljudi misle da ste ružni,
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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to može da vam ide u prilog.
03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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Hajde da vam pokažem
kako ovo funkcioniše.
kako ovo funkcioniše.
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary
section of OkCupid,
section of OkCupid,
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U delu OkCupid-a
koji je srećom dobrovoljan,
koji je srećom dobrovoljan,
03:46
you are allowed to rate
how attractive you think people are
how attractive you think people are
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možete oceniti koliko mislite
da je neko privlačan,
da je neko privlačan,
03:49
on a scale between 1 and 5.
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na skali od jedan do pet.
03:52
Now, if we compare this score,
the average score,
the average score,
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Ako uporedite ovaj, prosečan rezultat,
03:55
to how many messages a
selection of people receive,
selection of people receive,
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sa time koliko poruka
dobije određeni broj ljudi,
dobije određeni broj ljudi,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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možete otprilike da shvatite kako je
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity
on an online dating website.
on an online dating website.
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povezana privlačnost sa popularnošću
na internet sajtu za upoznavanje.
na internet sajtu za upoznavanje.
04:03
This is the graph that the OkCupid guys
have come up with.
have come up with.
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Ovo je grafikon do koga su došli
ljudi iz OkCupid-a.
ljudi iz OkCupid-a.
04:07
And the important thing to notice
is that it's not totally true
is that it's not totally true
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Bitno je primetiti da nije potpuno tačno
04:10
that the more attractive you are,
the more messages you get.
the more messages you get.
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da dobijate više poruka,
što ste privlačniji.
što ste privlačniji.
04:13
But the question arises then
of what is it about people up here
of what is it about people up here
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Ali onda dolazi do pitanja
šta je to sa ovim ljudima
šta je to sa ovim ljudima
04:16
who are so much more popular
than people down here,
than people down here,
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koji su toliko popularniji
od ovih ljudi dole,
od ovih ljudi dole,
04:21
even though they have the
same score of attractiveness?
same score of attractiveness?
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iako imaju isti rezultat
na skali privlačnosti?
na skali privlačnosti?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just
straightforward looks that are important.
straightforward looks that are important.
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Razlog leži u tome što nije bitan
izgled sam po sebi.
izgled sam po sebi.
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their
findings with an example.
findings with an example.
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Dozvolite da pokušam da prikažem
njihove rezultate kroz primer.
njihove rezultate kroz primer.
04:31
So if you take someone like
Portia de Rossi, for example,
Portia de Rossi, for example,
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Recimo, ako uzmete nekog
poput Porše de Rosi,
poput Porše de Rosi,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi
is a very beautiful woman.
is a very beautiful woman.
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svi se slažu da je Porša de Rosi
prelepa žena.
prelepa žena.
04:40
Nobody thinks that she's ugly,
but she's not a supermodel, either.
but she's not a supermodel, either.
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Niko ne misli da je ružna,
ali nije ni supermodel.
ali nije ni supermodel.
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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Ako uporedite Poršu de Rosi
s nekim poput Sare Džesike Parker,
s nekim poput Sare Džesike Parker,
04:48
now, a lot of people,
myself included, I should say,
myself included, I should say,
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dosta ljudi bi reklo,
uključujući i mene,
uključujući i mene,
04:51
think that Sarah Jessica Parker
is seriously fabulous
is seriously fabulous
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da je Sara Džesika Parker
veoma zanosna
veoma zanosna
04:56
and possibly one of the
most beautiful creatures
most beautiful creatures
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i verovatno jedno od najlepših stvorenja
04:58
to have ever have walked
on the face of the Earth.
on the face of the Earth.
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koja su ikada hodala Zemljom.
05:01
But some other people,
i.e., most of the Internet,
i.e., most of the Internet,
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Ali neki drugi ljudi,
npr. većina interneta,
npr. većina interneta,
05:07
seem to think that she looks
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
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izgleda da misle da ona izgleda
pomalo kao konj. (Smeh)
pomalo kao konj. (Smeh)
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people
how attractive they thought
how attractive they thought
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Mislim da kada biste ljude pitali
koliko misle da su atraktivne
koliko misle da su atraktivne
05:17
Sarah Jessica Parker
or Portia de Rossi were,
or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sara Džesika Parker ili Porša de Rosi,
05:19
and you ask them to give
them a score between 1 and 5,
them a score between 1 and 5,
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i zapitate ih da im daju rezultat
na skali od jedan do pet,
na skali od jedan do pet,
mislim da bi se došlo do toga
da je prosečan rezultat manje-više isti.
da je prosečan rezultat manje-više isti.
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out
to have roughly the same score.
to have roughly the same score.
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05:25
But the way that people would vote
would be very different.
would be very different.
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Ali način na koji bi ljudi glasali
bio bi potpuno drugačiji.
bio bi potpuno drugačiji.
05:27
So Portia's scores would
all be clustered around the 4
all be clustered around the 4
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Poršini rezultati bili bi grupisani
oko broja četiri
oko broja četiri
05:30
because everybody agrees
that she's very beautiful,
that she's very beautiful,
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jer se svi slažu da je prelepa,
05:32
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker
completely divides opinion.
completely divides opinion.
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dok su kod Sare Džesike Parker
mišljenja potpuno podeljena.
mišljenja potpuno podeljena.
05:35
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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Kod njenih rezultata
bilo bi velikih podela.
bilo bi velikih podela.
05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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Ove podele su zapravo ono što se računa.
05:40
It's this spread
that makes you more popular
that makes you more popular
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Ove podele su ono
što vas čini popularnijim
što vas čini popularnijim
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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na internet sajtu za upoznavanje.
05:45
So what that means then
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To onda znači
05:46
is that if some people
think that you're attractive,
think that you're attractive,
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da ako neki ljudi misle da ste privlačni,
05:48
you're actually better off
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bolje je ukoliko
05:50
having some other people
think that you're a massive minger.
think that you're a massive minger.
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neki drugi ljudi misle
da ste potpuni grob.
da ste potpuni grob.
05:55
That's much better
than everybody just thinking
than everybody just thinking
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To je puno bolje od toga da svi misle
da ste simpatična devojka iz komšiluka.
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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05:59
Now, I think this begins
makes a bit more sense
makes a bit more sense
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Mislim da ovo počinje da ima
malo više smisla
malo više smisla
06:02
when you think in terms of the people
who are sending these messages.
who are sending these messages.
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kada mislite o ljudima
koji šalju ove poruke.
koji šalju ove poruke.
06:05
So let's say that you think
somebody's attractive,
somebody's attractive,
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Recimo da mislite da je neko privlačan,
06:07
but you suspect that other people
won't necessarily be that interested.
won't necessarily be that interested.
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ali sumnjate da drugi ljudi
neće nužno biti toliko zainteresovani.
neće nužno biti toliko zainteresovani.
06:11
That means there's
less competition for you
less competition for you
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Ovo znači da za vas
ima manje konkurencije,
ima manje konkurencije,
i to je dodatni podsticaj za vas
da kontaktirate tu osobu.
da kontaktirate tu osobu.
06:14
and it's an extra incentive
for you to get in touch.
for you to get in touch.
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06:16
Whereas compare that
to if you think somebody is attractive
to if you think somebody is attractive
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Uporedite to sa nekim
za koga mislite da je privlačan
za koga mislite da je privlačan
06:19
but you suspect that everybody
is going to think they're attractive.
is going to think they're attractive.
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ali sumnjate i da će svi ostali
pomisliti da je ta osoba privlačna.
pomisliti da je ta osoba privlačna.
06:23
Well, why would you bother
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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Iskreno, zašto uopšte da se trudite
da biste se ponizili?
da biste se ponizili?
06:26
Here's where the really
interesting part comes.
interesting part comes.
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Ovde sledi veoma zanimljiv deo svega.
06:28
Because when people choose the pictures
that they use on an online dating website,
that they use on an online dating website,
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Kada ljudi biraju slike koje koriste
na internet sajtu za upoznavanje,
na internet sajtu za upoznavanje,
06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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često pokušavaju da umanje stvari
06:35
that they think some people
will find unattractive.
will find unattractive.
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za koje misle da će neki ljudi
smatrati neprivlačnim.
smatrati neprivlačnim.
06:39
The classic example is people
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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Klasičan primer su ljudi koji možda
imaju mali višak kilograma
imaju mali višak kilograma
06:43
deliberately choosing
a very cropped photo,
a very cropped photo,
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i namerno biraju prilično isečenu sliku,
06:46
or bald men, for example,
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ili na primer ćelavi muškarci,
06:48
deliberately choosing pictures
where they're wearing hats.
where they're wearing hats.
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koji namerno biraju slike
gde nose šešir.
gde nose šešir.
06:51
But actually this is the opposite
of what you should do
of what you should do
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Ovo je zapravo suprotno od onoga
što treba da radite
što treba da radite
ukoliko želite da budete uspešni.
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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06:55
You should really, instead, play up to
whatever it is that makes you different,
whatever it is that makes you different,
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Umesto toga treba da iznesete
to što mislite da vas čini drugačijim,
to što mislite da vas čini drugačijim,
07:00
even if you think that some people
will find it unattractive.
will find it unattractive.
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čak i ako mislite da će neki ljudi
to smatrati neprivlačnim.
to smatrati neprivlačnim.
07:04
Because the people who fancy you
are just going to fancy you anyway,
are just going to fancy you anyway,
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Jer ćete se svejedno svideti ljudima
kojima biste se inače svideli,
kojima biste se inače svideli,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't,
well, they only play up to your advantage.
well, they only play up to your advantage.
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a nebitni gubitnici kojima nećete,
pa, oni vam samo idu u korist.
pa, oni vam samo idu u korist.
07:12
Okay, Top Tip #2:
How to pick the perfect partner.
How to pick the perfect partner.
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U redu, Savet 2:
kako odabrati savršenog partnera.
kako odabrati savršenog partnera.
07:14
So let's imagine then
that you're a roaring success
that you're a roaring success
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Zamislimo da ste na sceni za upoznavanje
07:17
on the dating scene.
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neverovatno uspešni.
07:19
But the question arises
of how do you then convert that success
of how do you then convert that success
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Ali javlja se pitanje toga
kako preobratiti taj uspeh
kako preobratiti taj uspeh
07:23
into longer-term happiness
and in particular,
and in particular,
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u dugotrajnu sreću, a naročito
07:27
how do you decide
when is the right time to settle down?
when is the right time to settle down?
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kako odlučiti kada je pravo vreme
da se skrasite?
da se skrasite?
07:31
Now generally,
it's not advisable to just cash in
it's not advisable to just cash in
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Uopšteno govoreći,
nije preporučljivo da se zaletite
nije preporučljivo da se zaletite
07:34
and marry the first person
who comes along
who comes along
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i venčate se prvom osobom koja naiđe
07:36
and shows you any interest at all.
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i pokaže neko interesovanje.
07:38
But, equally, you don't really
want to leave it too long
want to leave it too long
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Ali isto tako, ne želite da čekate predugo
07:41
if you want to maximize your
chance of long-term happiness.
chance of long-term happiness.
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ukoliko želite da uvećate
svoje šanse za dugotrajnu sreću.
svoje šanse za dugotrajnu sreću.
07:44
As my favorite author,
Jane Austen, puts it,
Jane Austen, puts it,
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Kako to kaže
moja omiljena spisateljica, Džejn Ostin:
moja omiljena spisateljica, Džejn Ostin:
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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"Neudata žena od dvadeset sedam godina
07:50
can never hope to feel or
inspire affection again."
inspire affection again."
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ne može se nadati da će ikad ponovo
osetiti ili pobuditi naklonost".
osetiti ili pobuditi naklonost".
07:53
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:55
Thanks a lot, Jane.
What do you know about love?
What do you know about love?
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Mnogo ti hvala, Džejn.
A šta pa ti znaš o ljubavi?
A šta pa ti znaš o ljubavi?
07:59
So the question is then,
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Pitanje je onda sledeće,
08:01
how do you know when
is the right time to settle down
is the right time to settle down
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kako znate kada je
pravo vreme da se skrasite
pravo vreme da se skrasite
ako uzmete u obzir sve ljude
s kojima u životu možete izaći?
s kojima u životu možete izaći?
08:03
given all the people
that you can date in your lifetime?
that you can date in your lifetime?
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08:06
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit
of mathematics that we can use
of mathematics that we can use
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Srećom, u matematici postoji
nešto sjajno što možemo iskoristiti
nešto sjajno što možemo iskoristiti
da nam pomogne, i naziva se
teorijom optimalnog zaustavljanja.
teorijom optimalnog zaustavljanja.
08:10
to help us out here, called
optimal stopping theory.
optimal stopping theory.
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08:12
So let's imagine then,
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Hajde da onda zamislimo
08:14
that you start dating when you're 15
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da počnete da izlazite sa 15 godina
08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married
by the time that you're 35.
by the time that you're 35.
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i u najboljem slučaju,
želite da se venčate do svoje 35. godine.
želite da se venčate do svoje 35. godine.
08:21
And there's a number of people
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Postoji određeni broj ljudi
08:22
that you could potentially
date across your lifetime,
date across your lifetime,
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sa kojima biste potencijalno
mogli da izađete u toku života,
mogli da izađete u toku života,
08:25
and they'll be at varying
levels of goodness.
levels of goodness.
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i oni variraju na skali dobrote.
08:27
Now the rules are that once
you cash in and get married,
you cash in and get married,
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Pravila su takva da jednom
kada povučete potez i venčate se,
kada povučete potez i venčate se,
ne možete da gledate unapred
ka tome šta ste mogli da imate
ka tome šta ste mogli da imate
08:30
you can't look ahead to see
what you could have had,
what you could have had,
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08:32
and equally, you can't go back
and change your mind.
and change your mind.
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i isto tako ne možete da se vratite
i da se predomislite.
i da se predomislite.
08:35
In my experience at least,
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Makar iz mog iskustva,
08:37
I find that typically people don't
much like being recalled
much like being recalled
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otkrila sam da ljudi obično ne vole
da ih se setite
da ih se setite
08:39
years after being passed up
for somebody else, or that's just me.
for somebody else, or that's just me.
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godinama nakon što umesto njih odaberete
nekog drugog, možda sam to samo ja.
nekog drugog, možda sam to samo ja.
08:45
So the math says then
that what you should do
that what you should do
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Matematika vam kaže
šta onda treba da uradite -
šta onda treba da uradite -
08:48
in the first 37 percent
of your dating window,
of your dating window,
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u prvih 37% svojih šansi za izlaske,
08:51
you should just reject everybody
as serious marriage potential.
as serious marriage potential.
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jednostavno treba sve da odbijete
zbog nedostatka potencijala za brak.
zbog nedostatka potencijala za brak.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:57
And then, you should pick the
next person that comes along
next person that comes along
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Onda bi trebalo da odaberete
sledeću osobu koja naiđe,
sledeću osobu koja naiđe,
09:01
that is better than everybody
that you've seen before.
that you've seen before.
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a koja je bolja od svakoga
koga ste do tada videli.
koga ste do tada videli.
09:04
So here's the example.
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Evo primera.
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be
mathematically proven, in fact,
mathematically proven, in fact,
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Ako uradite ovo, zapravo se može
matematički dokazati
matematički dokazati
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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da je ovo najbolji mogući način
09:10
of maximizing your chances
of finding the perfect partner.
of finding the perfect partner.
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da uvećate svoje šanse
za pronalazak savršenog partnera.
za pronalazak savršenog partnera.
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that
this method does come with some risks.
this method does come with some risks.
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Nažalost, moram da vam kažem
da ovaj metod ima svoje rizike.
da ovaj metod ima svoje rizike.
09:20
For instance, imagine if
your perfect partner appeared
your perfect partner appeared
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Na primer, zamislite da vaš
savršeni partner dođe
savršeni partner dođe
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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tokom vaših prvih 37 procenata.
09:28
Now, unfortunately,
you'd have to reject them.
you'd have to reject them.
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Nažalost, moraćete ga odbiti.
09:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:33
Now, if you're following the maths,
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Ako pratite matematiku,
09:35
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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bojim se da neće doći niko drugi
09:37
that's better than anyone
you've seen before,
you've seen before,
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ko je bolji od svih
koje ste videli pre toga,
koje ste videli pre toga,
09:39
so you have to go on
rejecting everyone and die alone.
rejecting everyone and die alone.
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tako da morate da nastavite sa odbijanjem
dok ne umrete sami.
dok ne umrete sami.
09:44
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats
nibbling at your remains.
nibbling at your remains.
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Verovatno okruženi mačkama
koje grickaju vaše ostatke.
koje grickaju vaše ostatke.
09:51
Okay, another risk is,
let's imagine, instead,
let's imagine, instead,
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U redu, drugi rizik -
zamislite umesto ovoga
zamislite umesto ovoga
09:55
that the first people that you dated
in your first 37 percent
in your first 37 percent
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da su prvi ljudi sa kojima ste izašli
u vaših prvih 37% procenata
u vaših prvih 37% procenata
09:58
are just incredibly dull,
boring, terrible people.
boring, terrible people.
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prosto neverovatno dosadni,
bezlični, užasni ljudi.
bezlični, užasni ljudi.
10:02
Now, that's okay, because
you're in your rejection phase,
you're in your rejection phase,
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To je u redu, jer ste u fazi odbijanja,
10:05
so thats fine,
you can reject them.
you can reject them.
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tako da je to okej, možete ih odbiti.
10:07
But then imagine, the next
person to come along
person to come along
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Ali onda zamislite
da je sledeća osoba koja naiđe
da je sledeća osoba koja naiđe
10:10
is just marginally less boring,
dull and terrible
dull and terrible
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samo neznatno manje dosadna,
bezlična i užasna
bezlična i užasna
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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od svih koje ste do tada videli.
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths,
I'm afraid you have to marry them
I'm afraid you have to marry them
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Ako pratite matematiku,
bojim se da se morate venčati tom osobom
bojim se da se morate venčati tom osobom
10:20
and end up in a relationship
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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i završiti u vezi koja je
iskreno nezadovoljavajuća.
iskreno nezadovoljavajuća.
10:24
Sorry about that.
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Izvinite.
10:25
But I do think that there's
an opportunity here
an opportunity here
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Ali zaista mislim da ovde postoji prilika
10:27
for Hallmark to cash in on
and really cater for this market.
and really cater for this market.
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da Holmark unovči ovo
i zaista se prilagodi ovom tržištu.
i zaista se prilagodi ovom tržištu.
Čestitka za Dan zaljubljenih poput ove.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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10:32
"My darling husband, you
are marginally less terrible
are marginally less terrible
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4025
"Moj dragi mužu, samo si neznatno
manje užasan od prvih 37% ljudi
manje užasan od prvih 37% ljudi
10:36
than the first 37 percent
of people I dated."
of people I dated."
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sa kojima sam izašla."
10:39
It's actually more romantic
than I normally manage.
than I normally manage.
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Ispalo je romantičnije
nego što to obično uspevam.
nego što to obično uspevam.
10:45
Okay, so this method doesn't give
you a 100 percent success rate,
you a 100 percent success rate,
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U redu, ovaj metod vam ne daje
stopu uspeha od 100%,
stopu uspeha od 100%,
10:50
but there's no other possible
strategy that can do any better.
strategy that can do any better.
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ali ne postoji nijedna druga strategija
koja ima bolji rezultat.
koja ima bolji rezultat.
10:53
And actually, in the wild,
there are certain types
there are certain types
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Zapravo, u prirodi postoje
određene vrste ribe
određene vrste ribe
10:56
of fish which follow and
employ this exact strategy.
employ this exact strategy.
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koje prate i koriste baš ovu strategiju.
10:59
So they reject every possible
suitor that turns up
suitor that turns up
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One odbijaju svakog mogućeg
udvarača koji se pojavi
udvarača koji se pojavi
11:02
in the first 37 percent
of the mating season,
of the mating season,
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u prvih 37% procenata sezone parenja,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish
that comes along after that window
that comes along after that window
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i onda odaberu prvu narednu ribu
koja se pojavi nakon tog perioda,
koja se pojavi nakon tog perioda,
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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koja je, ne znam, veća i muževnija
11:11
than all of the fish
that they've seen before.
that they've seen before.
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od svih riba koje su do tada videle.
11:13
I also think that subconsciously,
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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Mislim da i mi ljudi ovo radimo
podsvesno, na neki način.
podsvesno, na neki način.
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time
to play the field,
to play the field,
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Sebi dajemo malo vremena
da istražimo igru,
da istražimo igru,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace
or whatever when we're young.
or whatever when we're young.
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steknemo osećaj za tržište ili slično,
kada smo mladi.
kada smo mladi.
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously
at potential marriage candidates
at potential marriage candidates
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Počnemo ozbiljno da gledamo
potencijalne kandidate za brak
potencijalne kandidate za brak
tek kada uđemo
u srednje i kasne dvadesete.
u srednje i kasne dvadesete.
11:30
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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11:31
I think this is conclusive proof,
if ever it were needed,
if ever it were needed,
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2803
Mislim da je ovo krajnji dokaz,
ako je ikad bio potreban,
ako je ikad bio potreban,
11:34
that everybody's brains are prewired
to be just a little bit mathematical.
to be just a little bit mathematical.
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4506
da su svačiji mozgovi predodređeni
da budu makar malo matematički.
da budu makar malo matematički.
11:39
Okay, so that was Top Tip #2.
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U redu, to je bio Savet broj dva.
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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Savet broj tri: kako izbeći razvod.
11:44
Okay, so let's imagine then
that you picked your perfect partner
that you picked your perfect partner
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U redu, zamislimo da ste odabrali
svog savršenog partnera
svog savršenog partnera
11:47
and you're settling into
a lifelong relationship with them.
a lifelong relationship with them.
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i navikavate se na doživotnu vezu
sa tom osobom.
sa tom osobom.
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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Želela bih da mislim da bi svako
voleo da izbegne razvod,
voleo da izbegne razvod,
11:56
apart from, I don't know,
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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4366
osim možda supruge Pirsa Morgana.
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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Ali tužna činjenica modernog života je to
12:04
that 1 in 2 marriages in the
States ends in divorce,
States ends in divorce,
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3809
da se 1 u 2 braka u SAD završi razvodom,
12:08
with the rest of the world
not being far behind.
not being far behind.
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dok ostatak sveta nije daleko od toga.
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
228
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Možda vam se može oprostiti
12:13
for thinking that the arguments
that precede a marital breakup
that precede a marital breakup
229
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3660
što mislite da svađe
koje prethode rastavi braka
koje prethode rastavi braka
12:17
are not an ideal candidate
for mathematical investigation.
for mathematical investigation.
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nisu idealne za matematičku istragu.
12:20
For one thing, it's very hard to know
231
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1900
Prvo, veoma je teško znati
12:22
what you should be measuring
or what you should be quantifying.
or what you should be quantifying.
232
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šta treba da merite
ili šta treba da brojite.
ili šta treba da brojite.
12:25
But this didn't stop a psychologist,
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
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Ali ovo nije zaustavilo psihologa
Džona Gotmana, koji je uradio upravo to.
Džona Gotmana, koji je uradio upravo to.
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples
having a conversation
having a conversation
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Gotman je posmatrao stotine parova
u toku razgovora
u toku razgovora
i snimao u principu sve
čega biste mogli da se setite.
čega biste mogli da se setite.
12:37
and recorded, well,
everything you can think of.
everything you can think of.
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2462
12:40
So he recorded what was said
in the conversation,
in the conversation,
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2487
Snimao je šta je rečeno u razgovoru,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
237
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2063
snimao je provodljivost njihove kože,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
238
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1920
njihove izraze lica,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
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2340
otkucaje srca, krvni pritisak,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether
or not the wife was actually always right,
or not the wife was actually always right,
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6450
zapravo sve osim toga da li je supruga
uvek bila u pravu ili ne,
uvek bila u pravu ili ne,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
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3024
a sasvim slučajno ona to jeste.
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
242
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Ali Gotman i njegov tim
su zapravo pronašli
su zapravo pronašli
13:01
was that one of the
most important predictors
most important predictors
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jedan od najbitnijih prediktora
13:03
for whether or not a couple
is going to get divorced
is going to get divorced
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toga da li će se par razvesti ili ne -
13:05
was how positive or negative each
partner was being in the conversation.
partner was being in the conversation.
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koliko je svaki partner
pozitivan ili negativan u razgovoru.
pozitivan ili negativan u razgovoru.
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
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Parovi sa niskom stopom rizika
13:13
scored a lot more positive points
on Gottman's scale than negative.
on Gottman's scale than negative.
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imali su puno više pozitivnih
nego negativnih poena na Gotmanovoj skali.
nego negativnih poena na Gotmanovoj skali.
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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Sa druge strane, u lošim vezama,
13:20
by which I mean, probably
going to get divorced,
going to get divorced,
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mislim na one gde će se
par verovatno razvesti,
par verovatno razvesti,
13:22
they found themselves getting
into a spiral of negativity.
into a spiral of negativity.
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zatekli su se u spirali negativnosti.
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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Koristeći samo ove jednostavne ideje,
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
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Gotman je sa svojom grupom
mogao da predvidi
mogao da predvidi
13:32
whether a given couple
was going to get divorced
was going to get divorced
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da li će se određeni par razvesti ili ne
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
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sa preciznošću od 90%.
13:37
But it wasn't until he teamed up
with a mathematician, James Murray,
with a mathematician, James Murray,
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Ali sve dok se nije udružio
sa matematičarom Džejmsom Marejem,
sa matematičarom Džejmsom Marejem,
13:41
that they really started to understand
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nije razumeo
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals
and how they occur.
and how they occur.
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šta je uzrok ovih spirala negativnosti
i kako se one dešavaju.
i kako se one dešavaju.
13:47
And the results that they found
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Rezultati do kojih su došli
13:49
I think are just incredibly
impressively simple and interesting.
impressively simple and interesting.
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po mom mišljenju,
neverovatno su prosti i zanimljivi.
neverovatno su prosti i zanimljivi.
13:53
So these equations, they predict how
the wife or husband is going to respond
the wife or husband is going to respond
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Ove jednačine predviđaju
kako će muž ili supruga reagovati
kako će muž ili supruga reagovati
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
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kada je njihov red u razgovoru,
13:59
how positive or negative
they're going to be.
they're going to be.
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koliko pozitivni ili negativni će biti.
14:02
And these equations, they depend on
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Ove jednačine zavise
od raspoloženja osobe
od raspoloženja osobe
14:03
the mood of the person
when they're on their own,
when they're on their own,
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kada je ona sama, od raspoloženja osobe
14:06
the mood of the person when
they're with their partner,
they're with their partner,
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kada je ona sa svojim partnerom,
14:08
but most importantly, they depend on
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ali najbitnije je da zavise od toga
14:10
how much the husband and wife
influence one another.
influence one another.
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koliko muž ili supruga
utiču jedno na drugo.
utiču jedno na drugo.
14:13
Now, I think it's important
to point out at this stage,
to point out at this stage,
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Mislim da je u ovom trenutku bitno istaći
14:16
that these exact equations
have also been shown
have also been shown
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da je dokazano da upravo ove jednačine
14:19
to be perfectly able at describing
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mogu savršeno da opišu
14:22
what happens between two
countries in an arms race.
countries in an arms race.
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šta se dešava između dve zemlje
u toku trke za naoružavanje.
u toku trke za naoružavanje.
14:26
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:30
So that -- an arguing couple
spiraling into negativity
spiraling into negativity
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Tako da je to - ljudi u zavadi
koji srljaju u negativnost
koji srljaju u negativnost
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce --
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i vise na ivici razvoda -
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to
the beginning of a nuclear war.
the beginning of a nuclear war.
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to je matematički jednako
početku nuklearnog rata.
početku nuklearnog rata.
14:40
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:42
But the really important term
in this equation
in this equation
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Ali termin koji je zaista bitan
u ovoj jednačini
u ovoj jednačini
14:45
is the influence that people
have on one another,
have on one another,
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je uticaj koji ljudi imaju jedni na druge,
14:47
and in particular, something called
the negativity threshold.
the negativity threshold.
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a naročito nešto što se naziva
granicom negativnosti.
granicom negativnosti.
14:50
Now, the negativity threshold,
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O granici negativnosti možete razmišljati
14:52
you can think of as
how annoying the husband can be
how annoying the husband can be
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kao o tome koliko iritantan
muž može da bude
muž može da bude
14:57
before the wife starts to get
really pissed off, and vice versa.
really pissed off, and vice versa.
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pre nego što žena zaista počne da ludi,
i obrnuto.
i obrnuto.
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages
were about compromise and understanding
were about compromise and understanding
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Uvek sam mislila da su osnove dobrog braka
kompromis i razumevanje
kompromis i razumevanje
15:06
and allowing the person to
have the space to be themselves.
have the space to be themselves.
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i dozvoljavanje osobi da ima prostora
da bude ono što jeste.
da bude ono što jeste.
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps
the most successful relationships
the most successful relationships
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Mislila sam i da bi
najuspešnije veze onda bile one
najuspešnije veze onda bile one
15:12
were ones where there was
a really high negativity threshold.
a really high negativity threshold.
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gde je granica negativnosti veoma visoka.
15:16
Where couples let things go
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Tamo gde parovi prepuštaju
15:17
and only brought things up if
they really were a big deal.
they really were a big deal.
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i iznose stvari samo
ako su zapravo velike.
ako su zapravo velike.
15:20
But actually, the mathematics
and subsequent findings by the team
and subsequent findings by the team
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Ali zapravo, matematika i otkrića tima
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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pokazali su da je istina upravo suprotna.
15:27
The best couples,
or the most successful couples,
or the most successful couples,
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Najbolji parovi, ili najuspešniji parovi
15:29
are the ones with a really low
negativity threshold.
negativity threshold.
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su oni kod kojih je granica negativnosti
veoma niska.
veoma niska.
15:33
These are the couples that don't
let anything go unnoticed
let anything go unnoticed
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Ovo su parovi kod kojih
ništa ne prolazi neprimećeno
ništa ne prolazi neprimećeno
15:37
and allow each other
some room to complain.
some room to complain.
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i gde jedni drugima daju
prostora za prigovaranje.
prostora za prigovaranje.
15:40
These are the couples that are continually
trying to repair their own relationship,
trying to repair their own relationship,
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Ovo su parovi koji se stalno trude
da poprave svoju vezu,
da poprave svoju vezu,
15:45
that have a much more positive
outlook on their marriage.
outlook on their marriage.
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koji imaju mnogo pozitivniju
sliku o svom braku.
sliku o svom braku.
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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Parovi koji ne zaboravljaju stvari
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things
end up being a really big deal.
end up being a really big deal.
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i parovi koji ne dopuštaju
da trivijalne stvari postanu velike.
da trivijalne stvari postanu velike.
15:56
Now of course, it takes bit more than
just a low negativity threshold
just a low negativity threshold
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Naravno, potrebno je više od
niske granice negativnosti same po sebi
niske granice negativnosti same po sebi
16:02
and not compromising to
have a successful relationship.
have a successful relationship.
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i nepravljenja kompromisa
da biste imali uspešnu vezu.
da biste imali uspešnu vezu.
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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Ali mislim da je prično zanimljivo
16:08
to know that there is really
mathematical evidence
mathematical evidence
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znati da zaista postoje
matematički dokazi
matematički dokazi
16:11
to say that you should never
let the sun go down on your anger.
let the sun go down on your anger.
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koji kažu da nikada zaista ne bi trebalo
da potpuno obuzdate svoj bes.
da potpuno obuzdate svoj bes.
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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To su moja tri saveta
16:16
of how maths can help you
with love and relationships.
with love and relationships.
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za to kako matematika može
da vam pomogne s ljubavlju i vezama.
da vam pomogne s ljubavlju i vezama.
16:19
But I hope
that aside from their use as tips,
that aside from their use as tips,
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Ali nadam se da će vam osim kao saveta
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight
into the power of mathematics.
into the power of mathematics.
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koristiti i kao uvid u moć matematike.
16:25
Because for me, equations
and symbols aren't just a thing.
and symbols aren't just a thing.
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Za mene, jednačine i simboli
nisu samo stvar.
nisu samo stvar.
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out
about the incredible richness of nature
about the incredible richness of nature
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Oni su glas koji govori
o neverovatnom bogatstvu prirode
o neverovatnom bogatstvu prirode
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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i zapanjujućoj jednostavnosti
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn
and warp and evolve all around us,
and warp and evolve all around us,
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šablona koji se uvijaju i izvrću
i razvijaju svuda oko nas,
i razvijaju svuda oko nas,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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od toga kako svet funkcioniše
do toga kako se ponašamo.
do toga kako se ponašamo.
16:44
So I hope that perhaps,
for just a couple of you,
for just a couple of you,
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Nadam se da će makar za nekoliko vas,
16:46
a little bit of insight into
the mathematics of love
the mathematics of love
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uvid u matematiku ljubavi
16:48
can persuade you to have
a little bit more love for mathematics.
a little bit more love for mathematics.
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pomoći da vas ubedi
da matematici pružite malo više ljubavi.
da matematici pružite malo više ljubavi.
16:52
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:53
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com