TED2016
Mariano Sigman: Your words may predict your future mental health
Marijano Sigman (Mariano Sigman): Vaše reči mogu predvideti vaš buduće mentalno zdravlje
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Može li način na koji danas govorite i pišete predvideti vaše buduće mentalno stanje, pa čak i pojavu psihoze? U ovom fascinantnom govoru, neuronaučnik Marijano Sigman razmatra Antičku Grčku i poreklo introspekcije da bi istražio kako naše reči daju nagoveštaj o našem unutrašnjem životu i detaljno obrazlaže algoritam mapiranja reči koji bi mogao predvideti razvoj šizofrenije. „Možda ćemo u budućnosti videti vrlo drugačiji oblik mentalnog zdravlja“, kaže Sigman, „zasnovan na objektivnoj, kvantitativnoj i automatizovanoj analizi reči koje pišemo i reči koje izgovorimo.“
Mariano Sigman - Neuroscientist
In his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain. Full bio
In his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
We have historical records that allow us
to know how the ancient Greeks dressed,
to know how the ancient Greeks dressed,
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Imamo istorijske podatke
koji nam omogućavaju
koji nam omogućavaju
da znamo kako su se stari Grci oblačili,
00:18
how they lived,
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kako su živeli, kako su se borili.
00:19
how they fought ...
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00:21
but how did they think?
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A kako su razmišljali?
00:23
One natural idea is that the deepest
aspects of human thought --
aspects of human thought --
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Jedna prirodna ideja je
da su najdublji aspekti ljudskih misli -
da su najdublji aspekti ljudskih misli -
00:27
our ability to imagine,
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naša sposobnost da zamišljamo,
00:29
to be conscious,
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da budemo svesni,
00:31
to dream --
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da maštamo -
00:32
have always been the same.
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uvek bili isti.
00:34
Another possibility
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Druga mogućnost
00:36
is that the social transformations
that have shaped our culture
that have shaped our culture
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je da su društveni preobražaji
koji su oblikovali našu kulturu
koji su oblikovali našu kulturu
00:40
may have also changed
the structural columns of human thought.
the structural columns of human thought.
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možda takođe izmenili
strukturalnu osnovu ljudske misli.
strukturalnu osnovu ljudske misli.
Svi možemo imati
različita mišljenja o ovome.
različita mišljenja o ovome.
00:44
We may all have different
opinions about this.
opinions about this.
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00:47
Actually, it's a long-standing
philosophical debate.
philosophical debate.
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Zapravo, to je dugogodišnja
filozofska rasprava.
filozofska rasprava.
00:50
But is this question
even amenable to science?
even amenable to science?
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Međutim, da li je ovo pitanje
uopšte pristupačno nauci?
uopšte pristupačno nauci?
00:54
Here I'd like to propose
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Hteo bih da ovde predložim
00:57
that in the same way we can reconstruct
how the ancient Greek cities looked
how the ancient Greek cities looked
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da na isti način
na koji možemo rekonstruisati
na koji možemo rekonstruisati
kako su izgledali gradovi Antičke Grčke
samo na osnovu nekoliko cigala,
samo na osnovu nekoliko cigala,
01:02
just based on a few bricks,
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01:04
that the writings of a culture
are the archaeological records,
are the archaeological records,
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spisi kulture predstavljaju
arheološke zapise,
arheološke zapise,
01:08
the fossils, of human thought.
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fosile ljudske misli.
01:11
And in fact,
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Zapravo,
01:13
doing some form of psychological analysis
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sprovodeći neku vrstu psihološke analize
01:15
of some of the most ancient
books of human culture,
books of human culture,
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nekih od najstarijih knjiga
ljudske kulture,
ljudske kulture,
01:18
Julian Jaynes came up in the '70s
with a very wild and radical hypothesis:
with a very wild and radical hypothesis:
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Džulijan Džejms je 1970-ih godina smislio
veoma smelu i radikalnu hipotezu
veoma smelu i radikalnu hipotezu
01:24
that only 3,000 years ago,
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da su pre samo 3 000 godina
01:27
humans were what today
we would call schizophrenics.
we would call schizophrenics.
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ljudi bili ono što bismo
danas nazvali šizofreničarima.
danas nazvali šizofreničarima.
01:33
And he made this claim
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Tvrdio je to
01:35
based on the fact that the first
humans described in these books
humans described in these books
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na osnovu činjenice da su se prvi ljudi
opisani u ovim knjigama
opisani u ovim knjigama
01:38
behaved consistently,
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ponašali dosledno
01:40
in different traditions
and in different places of the world,
and in different places of the world,
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u različitim tradicijama
i na različitim mestima na svetu,
i na različitim mestima na svetu,
01:43
as if they were hearing and obeying voices
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kao da čuju i povinuju se glasovima
01:47
that they perceived
as coming from the Gods,
as coming from the Gods,
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za koje su smatrali da dolaze od bogova
01:50
or from the muses ...
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ili od muza,
01:52
what today we would call hallucinations.
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što bismo danas nazvali halucinacijama.
01:55
And only then, as time went on,
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Tek zatim, kako je vreme prolazilo,
01:58
they began to recognize
that they were the creators,
that they were the creators,
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počeli su da prepoznaju
da su oni bili ti koji ih proizvode,
da su oni bili ti koji ih proizvode,
02:02
the owners of these inner voices.
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vlasnici tih unutrašnjih glasova.
02:05
And with this, they gained introspection:
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Time su stekli introspekciju,
02:08
the ability to think
about their own thoughts.
about their own thoughts.
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sposobnost da razmišljaju
o sopstvenim mislima.
o sopstvenim mislima.
02:11
So Jaynes's theory is that consciousness,
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Dakle, Džejnsova teorija je da svest,
02:15
at least in the way we perceive it today,
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bar onako kako je doživljavamo danas,
02:18
where we feel that we are the pilots
of our own existence --
of our own existence --
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kada osećamo da upravljamo
svojim postojanjem,
svojim postojanjem,
02:21
is a quite recent cultural development.
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predstavlja prilično skorašnje
kulturološko razviće.
kulturološko razviće.
Ova teorija je prilično spektakularna,
ali ima jedan očigledan problem,
ali ima jedan očigledan problem,
02:25
And this theory is quite spectacular,
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02:27
but it has an obvious problem
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a to je da je izgrađena samo na osnovu
nekoliko vrlo specifičnih primera.
nekoliko vrlo specifičnih primera.
02:28
which is that it's built on just a few
and very specific examples.
and very specific examples.
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02:33
So the question is whether the theory
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Postavlja se pitanje da li se teorija
02:34
that introspection built up in human
history only about 3,000 years ago
history only about 3,000 years ago
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da je introspekcija izgrađena
pre svega 3 000 godina u ljudskoj istoriji
pre svega 3 000 godina u ljudskoj istoriji
02:39
can be examined in a quantitative
and objective manner.
and objective manner.
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može proveravati
na kvantitativan i objektivan način.
na kvantitativan i objektivan način.
02:43
And the problem of how
to go about this is quite obvious.
to go about this is quite obvious.
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Problem toga kako se pozabaviti ovim
prilično je očigledan.
prilično je očigledan.
02:47
It's not like Plato woke up one day
and then he wrote,
and then he wrote,
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Platon se nije samo probudio
jednog dana i onda napisao:
jednog dana i onda napisao:
„Zdravo, ja sam Platon
02:50
"Hello, I'm Plato,
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02:52
and as of today, I have
a fully introspective consciousness."
a fully introspective consciousness."
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i od danas imam
potpuno introspektivnu svest.“
potpuno introspektivnu svest.“
02:55
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:57
And this tells us actually
what is the essence of the problem.
what is the essence of the problem.
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To nam zapravo govori
o tome šta je suština problema.
o tome šta je suština problema.
03:01
We need to find the emergence
of a concept that's never said.
of a concept that's never said.
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Treba da otkrijemo nastanak koncepta
koji nikada nije izrečen.
koji nikada nije izrečen.
03:06
The word introspection
does not appear a single time
does not appear a single time
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Reč „introspekcija“ se ne javlja nijednom
03:10
in the books we want to analyze.
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u knjigama koje želimo da analiziramo.
03:13
So our way to solve this
is to build the space of words.
is to build the space of words.
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Dakle, naš način da to rešimo
jeste da izgradimo prostor reči.
jeste da izgradimo prostor reči.
03:18
This is a huge space
that contains all words
that contains all words
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To je veliki prostor koji sadrži sve reči
03:21
in such a way that the distance
between any two of them
between any two of them
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na takav način da udaljenost
između bilo koje od njih dve
između bilo koje od njih dve
03:24
is indicative of how
closely related they are.
closely related they are.
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ukazuje na to koliko su blisko povezane.
03:28
So for instance,
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Tako, na primer,
hteli biste da reči „pas“ i „mačka“
stoje vrlo blizu jedna druge,
stoje vrlo blizu jedna druge,
03:29
you want the words "dog" and "cat"
to be very close together,
to be very close together,
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03:32
but the words "grapefruit" and "logarithm"
to be very far away.
to be very far away.
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ali da reči „grejpfrut“ i „logaritam“
budu veoma udaljene.
budu veoma udaljene.
03:36
And this has to be true
for any two words within the space.
for any two words within the space.
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Ovo mora da važi
za bilo koje dve reči u prostoru.
za bilo koje dve reči u prostoru.
03:41
And there are different ways
that we can construct the space of words.
that we can construct the space of words.
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Postoje različiti načini
na koje možemo konstruisati prostor reči.
na koje možemo konstruisati prostor reči.
Jedan način je da samo pitamo stručnjake,
otprilike onako kako radimo sa rečnicima.
otprilike onako kako radimo sa rečnicima.
03:44
One is just asking the experts,
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03:46
a bit like we do with dictionaries.
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03:48
Another possibility
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Druga mogućnost
03:50
is following the simple assumption
that when two words are related,
that when two words are related,
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je da sledimo jednostavnu pretpostavku da,
kada su dve reči povezane,
kada su dve reči povezane,
one imaju običaj da se javljaju
u istim rečenicama,
u istim rečenicama,
03:54
they tend to appear in the same sentences,
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03:56
in the same paragraphs,
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u istim pasusima,
03:57
in the same documents,
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u istim dokumentima,
03:59
more often than would be expected
just by pure chance.
just by pure chance.
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češće nego što je očekivano
da će se desiti pukom verovatnoćom.
da će se desiti pukom verovatnoćom.
04:04
And this simple hypothesis,
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Ova jednostavna hipoteza,
04:06
this simple method,
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taj jednostavan metod,
04:07
with some computational tricks
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uz neke trikove računanja
koji imaju veze sa činjenicom
04:09
that have to do with the fact
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da je to veoma složen
i visoko dimenzionalan prostor,
i visoko dimenzionalan prostor,
04:10
that this is a very complex
and high-dimensional space,
and high-dimensional space,
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04:13
turns out to be quite effective.
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ispostavilo se da je prilično efikasna.
Samo da vam dam predstavu
o tome koliko to dobro funkcioniše,
o tome koliko to dobro funkcioniše,
04:16
And just to give you a flavor
of how well this works,
of how well this works,
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04:18
this is the result we get when
we analyze this for some familiar words.
we analyze this for some familiar words.
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ovo je rezultat koji dobijamo
kada radimo analizu za neku poznatu reč.
kada radimo analizu za neku poznatu reč.
Najpre možete videti
04:23
And you can see first
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da se reči automatski organizuju
u semantička susedstva.
u semantička susedstva.
04:24
that words automatically organize
into semantic neighborhoods.
into semantic neighborhoods.
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04:28
So you get the fruits, the body parts,
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Tako imate voće, delove tela,
delove kompjutera,
naučne termine i tako dalje.
naučne termine i tako dalje.
04:30
the computer parts,
the scientific terms and so on.
the scientific terms and so on.
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04:33
The algorithm also identifies
that we organize concepts in a hierarchy.
that we organize concepts in a hierarchy.
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Algoritam takođe identifikuje
da koncepte organizujemo hijerarhijski.
da koncepte organizujemo hijerarhijski.
04:37
So for instance,
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Tako, na primer,
možete videti da se naučni termini
dele na dve potkategorije
dele na dve potkategorije
04:39
you can see that the scientific terms
break down into two subcategories
break down into two subcategories
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astronomskih i fizičkih termina.
04:42
of the astronomic and the physics terms.
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04:45
And then there are very fine things.
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Zatim, tu su i vrlo fine stvari.
04:47
For instance, the word astronomy,
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Na primer, reč „astronomija“
04:49
which seems a bit bizarre where it is,
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čije mesto deluje malo bizarno,
04:51
is actually exactly where it should be,
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zapravo se nalazi baš gde treba da bude,
04:53
between what it is,
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između onoga što jeste,
04:55
an actual science,
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prave nauke,
04:56
and between what it describes,
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i onoga što opisuje,
04:57
the astronomical terms.
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astronomskih termina.
05:00
And we could go on and on with this.
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Možemo ovako doveka.
05:02
Actually, if you stare
at this for a while,
at this for a while,
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Zapravo, ako neko vreme zurite u ovo
i samo nasumično stvarate putanje,
05:04
and you just build random trajectories,
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videćete da ovo pomalo deluje
kao bavljenje poezijom.
kao bavljenje poezijom.
05:06
you will see that it actually feels
a bit like doing poetry.
a bit like doing poetry.
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05:10
And this is because, in a way,
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To je tako jer je, na neki način,
05:11
walking in this space
is like walking in the mind.
is like walking in the mind.
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šetanje ovim prostorom kao šetnja kroz um.
05:16
And the last thing
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Poslednja stvar
je da ovaj algoritam takođe identifikuje
koje su naše intuicije,
koje su naše intuicije,
05:17
is that this algorithm also identifies
what are our intuitions,
what are our intuitions,
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05:21
of which words should lead
in the neighborhood of introspection.
in the neighborhood of introspection.
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koje reči treba da budu glavne
u okolini introspekcije.
u okolini introspekcije.
05:25
So for instance,
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Tako su, na primer,
reči poput „ja“, „krivica“,
„razum“ i „osećanje“
„razum“ i „osećanje“
05:26
words such as "self," "guilt,"
"reason," "emotion,"
"reason," "emotion,"
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05:30
are very close to "introspection,"
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veoma bliske „introspekciji“,
ali su druge reči kao što su „crveno“,
„fudbal“, „sveća“ i „banana“
„fudbal“, „sveća“ i „banana“
05:32
but other words,
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05:33
such as "red," "football,"
"candle," "banana,"
"candle," "banana,"
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05:36
are just very far away.
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veoma udaljene.
05:38
And so once we've built the space,
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Tako, jednom kada sačinimo taj prostor,
05:40
the question of the history
of introspection,
of introspection,
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pitanje o istoriji introspekcije
05:43
or of the history of any concept
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ili istoriji bilo kog koncepta
05:46
which before could seem abstract
and somehow vague,
and somehow vague,
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koje je ranije delovalo
apstraktno i nekako nejasno
apstraktno i nekako nejasno
05:50
becomes concrete --
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postaje konkretizovano,
05:52
becomes amenable to quantitative science.
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postaje prijemčivo kvantitativnoj nauci.
05:56
All that we have to do is take the books,
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Sve što treba da uradimo
je da uzmemo knjige,
je da uzmemo knjige,
05:59
we digitize them,
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digitalizujemo ih,
06:00
and we take this stream
of words as a trajectory
of words as a trajectory
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uzmemo ovu bujicu reči kao putanju
06:03
and project them into the space,
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i projektujemo ih na prostor,
06:05
and then we ask whether this trajectory
spends significant time
spends significant time
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a zatim postavimo pitanje
da li ta putanja provodi znatno vreme
da li ta putanja provodi znatno vreme
06:09
circling closely to the concept
of introspection.
of introspection.
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kružeći u blizini koncepta introspekcije.
06:12
And with this,
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Na ovaj način
mogli bismo analizirali
istoriju introspekcije
istoriju introspekcije
06:13
we could analyze
the history of introspection
the history of introspection
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06:16
in the ancient Greek tradition,
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u tradiciji Antičke Grčke,
06:18
for which we have the best
available written record.
available written record.
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za koju imamo
najbolje dostupne pisane zapise.
najbolje dostupne pisane zapise.
06:21
So what we did is we took all the books --
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Dakle, uzeli smo sve knjige -
06:23
we just ordered them by time --
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samo smo ih poređali po vremenu -
06:26
for each book we take the words
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za svaku knigu uzmemo reči
i projektujemo ih u prostor,
06:27
and we project them to the space,
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zatim postavimo pitanje za svaku reč
koliko je blizu introspekcije
koliko je blizu introspekcije
06:29
and then we ask for each word
how close it is to introspection,
how close it is to introspection,
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06:33
and we just average that.
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i to samo uprosečimo.
06:34
And then we ask whether,
as time goes on and on,
as time goes on and on,
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Zatim upitamo da li se, kako vreme odmiče,
06:37
these books get closer,
and closer and closer
and closer and closer
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ove knjige sve više i više približavaju
06:41
to the concept of introspection.
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konceptu introspekcije.
06:42
And this is exactly what happens
in the ancient Greek tradition.
in the ancient Greek tradition.
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To je upravo ono što se dešava
u tradiciji Antičke Grčke.
u tradiciji Antičke Grčke.
Možete videti da kod najstarijih knjiga
u homerovskoj tradiciji
u homerovskoj tradiciji
06:47
So you can see that for the oldest books
in the Homeric tradition,
in the Homeric tradition,
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06:50
there is a small increase with books
getting closer to introspection.
getting closer to introspection.
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postoji mali porast knjiga
koje se približavaju introspekciji.
koje se približavaju introspekciji.
06:54
But about four centuries before Christ,
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Međutim, oko četiri veka pre Hrista,
06:56
this starts ramping up very rapidly
to an almost five-fold increase
to an almost five-fold increase
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ovo počinje da se vrlo brzo pojačava
do skoro petostrukog porasta
do skoro petostrukog porasta
07:01
of books getting closer,
and closer and closer
and closer and closer
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knjiga koje se sve više
i više približavaju
i više približavaju
07:03
to the concept of introspection.
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konceptu introspekcije.
07:06
And one of the nice things about this
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Jedna od lepih stvari u vezi sa ovime
je to što sada možemo da pitamo
je to što sada možemo da pitamo
07:08
is that now we can ask
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da li ovo takođe važi
i u drugačijoj, nezavisnoj tradiciji.
i u drugačijoj, nezavisnoj tradiciji.
07:09
whether this is also true
in a different, independent tradition.
in a different, independent tradition.
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07:14
So we just ran this same analysis
on the Judeo-Christian tradition,
on the Judeo-Christian tradition,
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Sproveli smo ovu istu analizu
u judeo-hrišćanskoj tradiciji
u judeo-hrišćanskoj tradiciji
07:18
and we got virtually the same pattern.
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i dobili gotovo isti obrazac.
Još jednom, vidite mali porast
u najstarijim knjigama Starog zaveta,
u najstarijim knjigama Starog zaveta,
07:21
Again, you see a small increase
for the oldest books in the Old Testament,
for the oldest books in the Old Testament,
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07:26
and then it increases much more rapidly
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a zatim se povećava mnogo brže
07:28
in the new books of the New Testament.
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u novim knjigama Novog zaveta.
Zatim dobijamo vrhunac introspekcije
07:30
And then we get the peak of introspection
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07:32
in "The Confessions of Saint Augustine,"
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u „Ispovestima“ Svetog Avgustina
07:34
about four centuries after Christ.
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oko četiri veka posle Hrista.
07:36
And this was very important,
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Ovo je bilo veoma značajno
07:38
because Saint Augustine
had been recognized by scholars,
had been recognized by scholars,
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jer Svetog Avgustina priznaju akademici,
07:42
philologists, historians,
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filolozi i istoričari
07:44
as one of the founders of introspection.
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kao jednog od osnivača introspekcije.
07:47
Actually, some believe him to be
the father of modern psychology.
the father of modern psychology.
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Zapravo, neki ga smatraju
ocem savremene psihologije.
ocem savremene psihologije.
07:51
So our algorithm,
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Dakle, naš algoritam,
07:52
which has the virtue
of being quantitative,
of being quantitative,
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koji ima svojstvo kvantitativnosti,
07:55
of being objective,
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objektivnosti,
i naravno, izuzetno je brz -
07:57
and of course of being extremely fast --
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07:59
it just runs in a fraction of a second --
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izvršava se u svega deliću sekunde -
08:01
can capture some of the most
important conclusions
important conclusions
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može da zabeleži
neke od najvažnijih zaključaka
neke od najvažnijih zaključaka
08:05
of this long tradition of investigation.
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ove duge tradicije istraživanja.
08:08
And this is in a way
one of the beauties of science,
one of the beauties of science,
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Ovo je na neki način
jedna od lepota nauke,
jedna od lepota nauke,
08:11
which is that now this idea
can be translated
can be translated
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a to je da se sada ova ideja može prevesti
08:15
and generalized to a whole lot
of different domains.
of different domains.
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i generalizovati
na mnogo različitih domena.
na mnogo različitih domena.
08:18
So in the same way that we asked
about the past of human consciousness,
about the past of human consciousness,
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Na isti način na koji smo se pitali
o prošlosti ljudske svesti,
o prošlosti ljudske svesti,
08:23
maybe the most challenging question
we can pose to ourselves
we can pose to ourselves
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možda je najizazovnije pitanje
koje možemo postaviti sebi
koje možemo postaviti sebi
08:26
is whether this can tell us something
about the future of our own consciousness.
about the future of our own consciousness.
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da li nam ovo može nešto reći
o budućnosti naše svesti.
o budućnosti naše svesti.
08:31
To put it more precisely,
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Preciznije rečeno,
08:33
whether the words we say today
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da li nam reči koje izgovaramo danas
08:35
can tell us something
of where our minds will be in a few days,
of where our minds will be in a few days,
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mogu reći nešto o tome
gde će naš um biti za nekoliko dana,
gde će naš um biti za nekoliko dana,
08:40
in a few months
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za nekoliko meseci
ili za nekoliko godina.
08:41
or a few years from now.
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08:43
And in the same way many of us
are now wearing sensors
are now wearing sensors
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Kao što i mnogi od nas danas nose senzore
08:46
that detect our heart rate,
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koji detektuju naše otkucaje srca,
08:48
our respiration,
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naše disanje,
08:49
our genes,
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naše gene,
08:51
on the hopes that this may
help us prevent diseases,
help us prevent diseases,
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u nadi da nam to može pomoći
da sprečimo oboljenja,
da sprečimo oboljenja,
možemo se zapitati da li nam nadgledanje
i analiziranje reči koje izgovorimo,
i analiziranje reči koje izgovorimo,
08:55
we can ask whether monitoring
and analyzing the words we speak,
and analyzing the words we speak,
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08:58
we tweet, we email, we write,
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tvitujemo, šaljemo imejlom i napišemo
09:01
can tell us ahead of time whether
something may go wrong with our minds.
something may go wrong with our minds.
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može unapred reći da li nešto može
da krene naopako sa našim umom.
da krene naopako sa našim umom.
09:07
And with Guillermo Cecchi,
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Sa Giljermom Sečijem,
09:08
who has been my brother in this adventure,
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koji je bio moj brat u ovoj avanturi,
09:11
we took on this task.
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upustio sam se u ovaj zadatak.
09:14
And we did so by analyzing
the recorded speech of 34 young people
the recorded speech of 34 young people
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To smo uradili analizom
snimljenog govora 34 mladih ljudi
snimljenog govora 34 mladih ljudi
09:19
who were at a high risk
of developing schizophrenia.
of developing schizophrenia.
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koji su bili pod visokim rizikom
obolevanja od šizofrenije.
obolevanja od šizofrenije.
09:23
And so what we did is,
we measured speech at day one,
we measured speech at day one,
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Odredili smo mere govora prvog dana,
09:26
and then we asked whether the properties
of the speech could predict,
of the speech could predict,
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a zatim smo se zapitali
da li se svojstva govora mogu predvideti
da li se svojstva govora mogu predvideti
u okviru perioda od skoro tri godine,
09:29
within a window of almost three years,
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09:32
the future development of psychosis.
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budući razvoj psihoze.
09:35
But despite our hopes,
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Uprkos našim nadama,
09:37
we got failure after failure.
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naišli smo na neuspeh za neuspehom.
09:41
There was just not enough
information in semantics
information in semantics
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Jednostavno nije bilo
dovoljno semantičkih informacija
dovoljno semantičkih informacija
09:45
to predict the future
organization of the mind.
organization of the mind.
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da bi se predvidela
buduća organizacija uma.
buduća organizacija uma.
09:48
It was good enough
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Bilo ih je dovoljno
09:50
to distinguish between a group
of schizophrenics and a control group,
of schizophrenics and a control group,
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za razlikovanje grupe šizofreničara
od kontrolne grupe,
od kontrolne grupe,
09:54
a bit like we had done
for the ancient texts,
for the ancient texts,
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pomalo kao što smo radili
sa antičkim tekstovima,
sa antičkim tekstovima,
09:57
but not to predict the future
onset of psychosis.
onset of psychosis.
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ali ne i da bi se prevideo
budući nastanak psihoze.
budući nastanak psihoze.
10:01
But then we realized
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Međutim, onda smo shvatili
10:02
that maybe the most important thing
was not so much what they were saying,
was not so much what they were saying,
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da možda nije najvažnije šta su govorili,
10:07
but how they were saying it.
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već kako su to govorili.
10:09
More specifically,
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Konkretnije,
nije u pitanju to
koliko su semantički bile bliske,
koliko su semantički bile bliske,
10:10
it was not in which semantic
neighborhoods the words were,
neighborhoods the words were,
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10:13
but how far and fast they jumped
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već koliko daleko i brzo su preskakale
10:16
from one semantic neighborhood
to the other one.
to the other one.
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iz jedne semantičke blizine u drugu.
10:19
And so we came up with this measure,
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Tako smo došli do merila
10:21
which we termed semantic coherence,
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koji smo nazvali semantička koherentnost,
10:23
which essentially measures the persistence
of speech within one semantic topic,
of speech within one semantic topic,
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koje u suštini meri istrajnost govora
u okviru jedne semantičke teme,
u okviru jedne semantičke teme,
10:28
within one semantic category.
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jedne semantičke kategorije.
10:31
And it turned out to be
that for this group of 34 people,
that for this group of 34 people,
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Ispostavilo se
da je u ovoj grupi od 34 ljudi
da je u ovoj grupi od 34 ljudi
10:35
the algorithm based on semantic
coherence could predict,
coherence could predict,
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algoritam zasnovan
na semantičkoj koherentnosti
na semantičkoj koherentnosti
mogao predvideti sa tačnošću od 100 odsto
10:39
with 100 percent accuracy,
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10:41
who developed psychosis and who will not.
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kod koga će se javiti psihoza,
a kod koga neće.
a kod koga neće.
10:44
And this was something
that could not be achieved --
that could not be achieved --
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To je nešto što se nije moglo postići,
10:47
not even close --
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čak ni približno,
10:49
with all the other
existing clinical measures.
existing clinical measures.
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sa svim ostalim
postojećim kliničkim merilima.
postojećim kliničkim merilima.
10:54
And I remember vividly,
while I was working on this,
while I was working on this,
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Jasno se sećam, dok sam radio na ovome,
10:58
I was sitting at my computer
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sedeo sam za svojim kompjuterom
11:00
and I saw a bunch of tweets by Polo --
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i video gomilu tvitova
koje je objavio Polo.
koje je objavio Polo.
11:03
Polo had been my first student
back in Buenos Aires,
back in Buenos Aires,
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Polo je bio moj prvi student
u Buenos Ajresu,
u Buenos Ajresu,
a u to vreme je živeo u Njujorku.
11:06
and at the time
he was living in New York.
he was living in New York.
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11:08
And there was something in this tweets --
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Bilo je nečeg u njegovim tvitovima -
11:10
I could not tell exactly what
because nothing was said explicitly --
because nothing was said explicitly --
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nisam mogao da kažem šta je to tačno
jer ništa nije eksplicitno rečeno -
jer ništa nije eksplicitno rečeno -
11:14
but I got this strong hunch,
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ali mi se javila snažna slutnja,
11:16
this strong intuition,
that something was going wrong.
that something was going wrong.
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snažna intuicija da nešto nije u redu.
11:20
So I picked up the phone,
and I called Polo,
and I called Polo,
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Uzeo sam telefon i pozvao Pola,
a on se zaista nije osećao dobro.
11:23
and in fact he was not feeling well.
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11:25
And this simple fact,
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Ovaj jednostavan podatak,
11:27
that reading in between the lines,
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to čitanje između redova
11:29
I could sense,
through words, his feelings,
through words, his feelings,
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pri čemu sam mogao kroz reči
da osetim njegova osećanja,
da osetim njegova osećanja,
11:34
was a simple, but very
effective way to help.
effective way to help.
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bio je jednostavan,
ali vrlo efikasan način da se pomogne.
ali vrlo efikasan način da se pomogne.
11:37
What I tell you today
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Ono što vam danas poručujem
11:39
is that we're getting
close to understanding
close to understanding
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jeste da se približavamo razumevanju toga
11:42
how we can convert this intuition
that we all have,
that we all have,
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kako možemo pretvoriti
tu intuiciju koju svi imamo,
tu intuiciju koju svi imamo,
11:46
that we all share,
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koju svi delimo,
11:47
into an algorithm.
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u algoritam.
11:50
And in doing so,
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Na taj način,
11:51
we may be seeing in the future
a very different form of mental health,
a very different form of mental health,
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možda ćemo u budućnosti videti
vrlo drugačiji oblik mentalnog zdravlja,
vrlo drugačiji oblik mentalnog zdravlja,
11:56
based on objective, quantitative
and automated analysis
and automated analysis
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zasnovan na objektivnoj,
kvantitativnoj i automatizovanoj analizi
kvantitativnoj i automatizovanoj analizi
12:01
of the words we write,
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reči koje pišemo
12:03
of the words we say.
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i reči koje izgovorimo.
12:05
Gracias.
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Hvala.
12:06
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Mariano Sigman - NeuroscientistIn his provocative, mind-bending book "The Secret Life of the Mind," neuroscientist Mariano Sigman reveals his life’s work exploring the inner workings of the human brain.
Why you should listen
Mariano Sigman, a physicist by training, is a leading figure in the cognitive neuroscience of learning and decision making. Sigman was awarded a Human Frontiers Career Development Award, the National Prize of Physics, the Young Investigator Prize of "College de France," the IBM Scalable Data Analytics Award and is a scholar of the James S. McDonnell Foundation. In 2016 he was made a Laureate of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences.
In The Secret Life of the Mind, Sigman's ambition is to explain the mind so that we can understand ourselves and others more deeply. He shows how we form ideas during our first days of life, how we give shape to our fundamental decisions, how we dream and imagine, why we feel certain emotions, how the brain transforms and how who we are changes with it. Spanning biology, physics, mathematics, psychology, anthropology, linguistics, philosophy and medicine, as well as gastronomy, magic, music, chess, literature and art, The Secret Life of the Mind revolutionizes how neuroscience serves us in our lives, revealing how the infinity of neurons inside our brains manufacture how we perceive, reason, feel, dream and communicate.
Mariano Sigman | Speaker | TED.com