TEDSummit
Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it?
Sem Haris (Sam Harris): Možemo li napraviti veštačku inteligenciju, a da ne izgubimo kontrolu nad njom?
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Plašite se superinteligentne veštačke inteligencije? I treba, i to ne samo u teroji, kaže neuronaučnik i filozof Sem Haris. Napravićemo nadljudske mašine, kaže Haris, ali još uvek se nismo izborili sa problemom da ćemo stvoriti nešto što će se prema nama odnositi kao što se mi odnosimo prema mravima.
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopher
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I'm going to talk
about a failure of intuition
about a failure of intuition
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Pričaću vam o porazu intuicije
00:15
that many of us suffer from.
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od koga mnogi patimo.
00:17
It's really a failure
to detect a certain kind of danger.
to detect a certain kind of danger.
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Zista je porazno opaziti
određenu vrstu opasnosti.
određenu vrstu opasnosti.
00:21
I'm going to describe a scenario
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Opisaću vam jedan scenario
00:23
that I think is both terrifying
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za koji mislim da je i zastrašujuć
00:26
and likely to occur,
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i koji se realno može dogoditi,
00:28
and that's not a good combination,
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a to, kako se čini,
00:30
as it turns out.
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nije dobra kombinacija.
00:32
And yet rather than be scared,
most of you will feel
most of you will feel
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A opet umesto da se uplaše,
mnogi od vas će misliti
mnogi od vas će misliti
00:34
that what I'm talking about
is kind of cool.
is kind of cool.
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da je ono o čemu pričam nešto kul.
00:37
I'm going to describe
how the gains we make
how the gains we make
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Opisaću vam kako bi
napredak koji pravimo
napredak koji pravimo
00:40
in artificial intelligence
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u veštačkoj inteligenciji
00:42
could ultimately destroy us.
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mogao na kraju da nas uništi.
00:43
And in fact, I think it's very difficult
to see how they won't destroy us
to see how they won't destroy us
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Zapravo, mislim da je jako teško
zamisliti kako nas neće uništiti,
zamisliti kako nas neće uništiti,
00:47
or inspire us to destroy ourselves.
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ili navesti da se samouništimo.
00:49
And yet if you're anything like me,
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A opet ako ste imalo kao ja,
00:51
you'll find that it's fun
to think about these things.
to think about these things.
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shvatićete da je zabavno
razmišljati o ovim stvarima.
razmišljati o ovim stvarima.
00:53
And that response is part of the problem.
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I taj odgovor je deo ovog problema.
00:57
OK? That response should worry you.
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OK? Taj odgovor treba da vas brine.
00:59
And if I were to convince you in this talk
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Kad bih vas u ovom govoru ubedio
01:02
that we were likely
to suffer a global famine,
to suffer a global famine,
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da ćemo vrlo verovatno
globalno gladovati,
globalno gladovati,
01:06
either because of climate change
or some other catastrophe,
or some other catastrophe,
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bilo zbog klimatskih promena
ili neke druge katastrofe,
ili neke druge katastrofe,
01:09
and that your grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
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i da će vaši unuci, ili njihovi unuci,
01:12
are very likely to live like this,
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vrlo verovatno živeti ovako,
01:15
you wouldn't think,
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ne biste mislili:
01:17
"Interesting.
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"Zanimljivo.
01:18
I like this TED Talk."
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Dobar ovaj TED Talk."
01:21
Famine isn't fun.
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Glad nije zabavna.
01:23
Death by science fiction,
on the other hand, is fun,
on the other hand, is fun,
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Smrt u naučnoj fantastici,
sa druge strane, jeste zabavna,
sa druge strane, jeste zabavna,
01:27
and one of the things that worries me most
about the development of AI at this point
about the development of AI at this point
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i nešto što me najviše brine
u ovom trenutku u vezi sa razvojem VI
u ovom trenutku u vezi sa razvojem VI
01:31
is that we seem unable to marshal
an appropriate emotional response
an appropriate emotional response
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je što izgleda da ne možemo da pružimo
odgovarajući emocionalni odgovor
odgovarajući emocionalni odgovor
01:35
to the dangers that lie ahead.
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na opasnosti koje dolaze.
01:37
I am unable to marshal this response,
and I'm giving this talk.
and I'm giving this talk.
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Ni ja ne mogu da pružim ovaj odgovor,
a držim ovaj govor.
a držim ovaj govor.
01:42
It's as though we stand before two doors.
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To je kao da stojimo ispred dvoja vrata.
01:44
Behind door number one,
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Iza vrata broj jedan,
01:46
we stop making progress
in building intelligent machines.
in building intelligent machines.
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zaustavljamo napredak
u pravljenju inteligentnih mašina.
u pravljenju inteligentnih mašina.
01:49
Our computer hardware and software
just stops getting better for some reason.
just stops getting better for some reason.
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Kompjuterski hardver i softver prosto
prestaju da budu bolji iz nekog razloga.
prestaju da budu bolji iz nekog razloga.
01:53
Now take a moment
to consider why this might happen.
to consider why this might happen.
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Sada na trenutak razmislite
zašto bi se ovo moglo desiti.
zašto bi se ovo moglo desiti.
01:57
I mean, given how valuable
intelligence and automation are,
intelligence and automation are,
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Mislim, s obzirom koliku vrednost
imaju inteligencija i automatizacija,
imaju inteligencija i automatizacija,
02:00
we will continue to improve our technology
if we are at all able to.
if we are at all able to.
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nastavićemo da unapređujemo tehnologiju
ako smo uopšte kadri za to.
ako smo uopšte kadri za to.
02:05
What could stop us from doing this?
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Šta bi nas moglo sprečiti u tome?
02:07
A full-scale nuclear war?
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Svetski nuklearni rat?
02:11
A global pandemic?
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Globalna pandemija?
02:14
An asteroid impact?
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Pad asteroida?
02:17
Justin Bieber becoming
president of the United States?
president of the United States?
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Ako Džastin Biber postane
predsednik Amerike?
predsednik Amerike?
02:20
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:24
The point is, something would have to
destroy civilization as we know it.
destroy civilization as we know it.
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Poenta je u tome, da bi nešto moralo
da uništi civilizaciju ovakvu kakva je.
da uništi civilizaciju ovakvu kakva je.
02:29
You have to imagine
how bad it would have to be
how bad it would have to be
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Morate zamisliti kako
bi zaista loše moralo biti to
bi zaista loše moralo biti to
02:33
to prevent us from making
improvements in our technology
improvements in our technology
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što bi nas trajno sprečilo
da unapređujemo,
da unapređujemo,
02:37
permanently,
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tehnologiju,
02:38
generation after generation.
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generaciju za generacijom.
02:40
Almost by definition,
this is the worst thing
this is the worst thing
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Skoro po definiciji, ovo je najgora stvar
02:42
that's ever happened in human history.
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koja se ikada desila u ljudskoj istoriji.
02:44
So the only alternative,
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Pa je jedina alternativa,
02:45
and this is what lies
behind door number two,
behind door number two,
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a ovo se nalazi iza vrata broj dva,
02:48
is that we continue
to improve our intelligent machines
to improve our intelligent machines
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da nastavimo da unapređujemo
naše inteligentne mašine
naše inteligentne mašine
02:51
year after year after year.
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bez prestanka.
02:53
At a certain point, we will build
machines that are smarter than we are,
machines that are smarter than we are,
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U jednom trenutku, napravićemo
mašine koje su pametnije od nas,
mašine koje su pametnije od nas,
02:58
and once we have machines
that are smarter than we are,
that are smarter than we are,
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i tad kad budemo imali mašine
koje su pametnije od nas,
koje su pametnije od nas,
03:00
they will begin to improve themselves.
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one će same početi da se razvijaju.
03:02
And then we risk what
the mathematician IJ Good called
the mathematician IJ Good called
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I onda rizikujemo ono
što je matematičar I.Dž. Gud nazvao
što je matematičar I.Dž. Gud nazvao
03:05
an "intelligence explosion,"
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"eksplozija inteligencije",
03:07
that the process could get away from us.
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da proces može da nam pobegne.
03:10
Now, this is often caricatured,
as I have here,
as I have here,
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E, sad, ovo se često karikira,
kao što ću i ja uraditi,
kao što ću i ja uraditi,
03:12
as a fear that armies of malicious robots
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kao strah od napada armije
03:16
will attack us.
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zlih robota.
03:17
But that isn't the most likely scenario.
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Ali to nije najverovatniji scenario.
03:20
It's not that our machines
will become spontaneously malevolent.
will become spontaneously malevolent.
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Nije kao da će naše mašine
spontano postati zle.
spontano postati zle.
03:25
The concern is really
that we will build machines
that we will build machines
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Brine nas, zapravo,
da ćemo mi napraviti mašine
da ćemo mi napraviti mašine
03:27
that are so much
more competent than we are
more competent than we are
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koje su mnogo, mnogo
kompetentnije od nas,
kompetentnije od nas,
03:29
that the slightest divergence
between their goals and our own
between their goals and our own
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brinemo da će nas uništiti
i najmanja razlika između
i najmanja razlika između
03:33
could destroy us.
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naših i njihovih ciljeva.
03:35
Just think about how we relate to ants.
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Zamislite kakvi smo mi prema mravima.
03:38
We don't hate them.
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Ne mrzimo ih.
03:40
We don't go out of our way to harm them.
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Ne povređujemo ih namerno.
03:42
In fact, sometimes
we take pains not to harm them.
we take pains not to harm them.
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Zapravo, ponekad se
trudimo se da ih ne povredimo.
trudimo se da ih ne povredimo.
03:44
We step over them on the sidewalk.
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Preskačemo ih na trotoaru.
03:46
But whenever their presence
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Ali kada god njihovo prisustvo
03:48
seriously conflicts with one of our goals,
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ozbiljno ugrozi neke naše ciljeve,
03:51
let's say when constructing
a building like this one,
a building like this one,
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recimo kada konstruišemo
neku zgradu poput ove,
neku zgradu poput ove,
03:53
we annihilate them without a qualm.
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bez po muke ih istrebimo.
03:56
The concern is that we will
one day build machines
one day build machines
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Brine nas da ćemo
jednog dana napraviti mašine
jednog dana napraviti mašine
03:59
that, whether they're conscious or not,
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koje će, bilo da su svesne ili ne,
04:02
could treat us with similar disregard.
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nas tretirati na isti način.
04:05
Now, I suspect this seems
far-fetched to many of you.
far-fetched to many of you.
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E, sad, cenim da većini vas
ovo zvuči kao daleka budućnost.
ovo zvuči kao daleka budućnost.
04:09
I bet there are those of you who doubt
that superintelligent AI is possible,
that superintelligent AI is possible,
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Kladim se da ima onih koji ne veruju
da je superinteligentna VI moguća,
da je superinteligentna VI moguća,
04:15
much less inevitable.
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a kamoli neizbežna.
04:17
But then you must find something wrong
with one of the following assumptions.
with one of the following assumptions.
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Ali onda morate naći neku grešku
u sledećim pretpostavkama.
u sledećim pretpostavkama.
04:21
And there are only three of them.
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A samo ih je tri.
04:23
Intelligence is a matter of information
processing in physical systems.
processing in physical systems.
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Inteligencija je stvar obrade
informacija u fizičkim sistemima.
informacija u fizičkim sistemima.
04:29
Actually, this is a little bit more
than an assumption.
than an assumption.
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U stvari, ovo je malo više
od neke pretpostavke.
od neke pretpostavke.
04:31
We have already built
narrow intelligence into our machines,
narrow intelligence into our machines,
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Već smo ugradili specifičnu
inteligenciju u naše mašine,
inteligenciju u naše mašine,
04:35
and many of these machines perform
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i mnoge od ovih mašina već
04:37
at a level of superhuman
intelligence already.
intelligence already.
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imaju performanse na nivou
superljudske inteligencije.
superljudske inteligencije.
04:40
And we know that mere matter
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I znamo da sama materija
04:43
can give rise to what is called
"general intelligence,"
"general intelligence,"
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može da omogući takozvanu
"uopštenu inteligenciju",
"uopštenu inteligenciju",
04:46
an ability to think flexibly
across multiple domains,
across multiple domains,
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sposobnost da se fleksibilno
razmišlja u različitim domenima,
razmišlja u različitim domenima,
04:49
because our brains have managed it. Right?
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jer to može i naš mozak. Je l' tako?
04:52
I mean, there's just atoms in here,
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Mislim, ovde postoje samo atomi,
04:56
and as long as we continue
to build systems of atoms
to build systems of atoms
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i sve dok mi nastavljamo
da gradimo sisteme atoma
da gradimo sisteme atoma
05:01
that display more and more
intelligent behavior,
intelligent behavior,
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koji su sve inteligentniji
i inteligentniji,
i inteligentniji,
05:04
we will eventually,
unless we are interrupted,
unless we are interrupted,
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mi ćemo na kraju, osim ako nas prekinu,
05:06
we will eventually
build general intelligence
build general intelligence
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mi ćemo na kraju
ugraditi uopštenu inteligenciju
ugraditi uopštenu inteligenciju
05:10
into our machines.
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u naše mašine.
05:11
It's crucial to realize
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
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Od suštinske je važnosti da shvatimo
da stopa napretka nije važna,
da stopa napretka nije važna,
05:15
because any progress
is enough to get us into the end zone.
is enough to get us into the end zone.
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jer bilo kakav napredak
je dovoljan da nas dovede do cilja.
je dovoljan da nas dovede do cilja.
05:18
We don't need Moore's law to continue.
We don't need exponential progress.
We don't need exponential progress.
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Ne treba nam Murov zakon.
Ne treba nam eksponencijalni napredak.
Ne treba nam eksponencijalni napredak.
05:22
We just need to keep going.
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Samo treba da nastavimo dalje.
05:25
The second assumption
is that we will keep going.
is that we will keep going.
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Druga pretpostavka je
da ćemo nastaviti dalje.
da ćemo nastaviti dalje.
05:29
We will continue to improve
our intelligent machines.
our intelligent machines.
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Nastavićemo da poboljšavamo
naše inteligentne mašine.
naše inteligentne mašine.
05:33
And given the value of intelligence --
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I uz postojeću vrednost inteligencije -
05:37
I mean, intelligence is either
the source of everything we value
the source of everything we value
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mislim, inteligencija je
ili izvor svega što je vredno
ili izvor svega što je vredno
05:40
or we need it to safeguard
everything we value.
everything we value.
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ili nam treba da sačuvamo
sve ono što nam je vredno.
sve ono što nam je vredno.
05:43
It is our most valuable resource.
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To je naš najvredniji resurs.
05:46
So we want to do this.
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I zato želimo da uradimo ovo.
05:47
We have problems
that we desperately need to solve.
that we desperately need to solve.
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Imamo probleme koje
očajnički moramo da rešimo.
očajnički moramo da rešimo.
05:50
We want to cure diseases
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
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Želimo da izlečimo bolesti poput
Alchajmera i raka.
Alchajmera i raka.
05:54
We want to understand economic systems.
We want to improve our climate science.
We want to improve our climate science.
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Želimo da shvatimo ekonomske sisteme.
Želimo da poboljšamo nauku o klimi.
Želimo da poboljšamo nauku o klimi.
05:58
So we will do this, if we can.
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Tako da, ako možemo, to ćemo i uraditi.
06:01
The train is already out of the station,
and there's no brake to pull.
and there's no brake to pull.
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Voz je već napustio stanicu,
i nema kočnice.
i nema kočnice.
06:05
Finally, we don't stand
on a peak of intelligence,
on a peak of intelligence,
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Konačno, mi ne stojimo
na vrhuncu inteligencije,
na vrhuncu inteligencije,
06:11
or anywhere near it, likely.
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a verovatno ni blizu toga.
06:13
And this really is the crucial insight.
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I ovo je zaista suštinski uvid.
06:15
This is what makes
our situation so precarious,
our situation so precarious,
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Zbog ovoga je naša
situacija tako nepouzdana,
situacija tako nepouzdana,
06:18
and this is what makes our intuitions
about risk so unreliable.
about risk so unreliable.
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i zbog toga je naša intuicija
o riziku tako nepouzdana.
o riziku tako nepouzdana.
06:23
Now, just consider the smartest person
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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E, sad, samo razmislite
o najpametnijoj osobi ikada.
o najpametnijoj osobi ikada.
06:26
On almost everyone's shortlist here
is John von Neumann.
is John von Neumann.
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Na skoro svačijem užem spisku ovde
je Džon fon Nojman.
je Džon fon Nojman.
06:30
I mean, the impression that von Neumann
made on the people around him,
made on the people around him,
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Mislim, utisak koji je Nojman
ostavio na ljude oko sebe,
ostavio na ljude oko sebe,
06:33
and this included the greatest
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
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uključujući tu najveće
matematičare i fizičare tog vremena,
matematičare i fizičare tog vremena,
06:37
is fairly well-documented.
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je prilično dobro dokumentovan.
06:39
If only half the stories
about him are half true,
about him are half true,
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I ako je samo pola onih
priča o njemu polutačna,
priča o njemu polutačna,
06:43
there's no question
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nema dileme da je on
06:44
he's one of the smartest people
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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jedan od najpametnijih ljudi
koji su ikada živeli.
koji su ikada živeli.
06:47
So consider the spectrum of intelligence.
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Samo zamislite opseg inteligencije.
06:50
Here we have John von Neumann.
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Ovde imamo Džona fon Nojmana.
06:53
And then we have you and me.
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Onda smo tu vi i ja.
06:56
And then we have a chicken.
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I onda imamo neko pile.
06:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:59
Sorry, a chicken.
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Pardon, neko pile.
07:00
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:01
There's no reason for me to make this talk
more depressing than it needs to be.
more depressing than it needs to be.
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Nema potrebe da idem dalje u dubiozu
u ovom govoru nego što treba.
u ovom govoru nego što treba.
07:05
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:08
It seems overwhelmingly likely, however,
that the spectrum of intelligence
that the spectrum of intelligence
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Međutim, čini se da je više nego verovatno
da se spektar inteligencije
da se spektar inteligencije
07:11
extends much further
than we currently conceive,
than we currently conceive,
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proteže mnogo više
nego što trenutno možemo da shvatimo,
nego što trenutno možemo da shvatimo,
07:15
and if we build machines
that are more intelligent than we are,
that are more intelligent than we are,
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i ako napravimo mašine
koje su mnogo inteligentnije od nas,
koje su mnogo inteligentnije od nas,
07:19
they will very likely
explore this spectrum
explore this spectrum
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one će skoro sigurno
istražiti ovaj spektar
istražiti ovaj spektar
07:21
in ways that we can't imagine,
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onako kako to ne možemo ni zamisliti,
07:23
and exceed us in ways
that we can't imagine.
that we can't imagine.
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i preteći nas na načine
koje ne možemo ni zamisliti.
koje ne možemo ni zamisliti.
07:27
And it's important to recognize that
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
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I važno je shvatiti da je ovo
moguće samo putem brzine.
moguće samo putem brzine.
07:31
Right? So imagine if we just built
a superintelligent AI
a superintelligent AI
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U redu? Zamislite samo da napravimo
jednu superinteligentnu VI
jednu superinteligentnu VI
07:36
that was no smarter
than your average team of researchers
than your average team of researchers
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koja nije ništa pametnija
od vašeg prosečnog tima istraživača
od vašeg prosečnog tima istraživača
07:39
at Stanford or MIT.
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na Stanfordu ili MIT-u.
07:42
Well, electronic circuits
function about a million times faster
function about a million times faster
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Pa, električna kola
funkcionišu oko milion puta brže
funkcionišu oko milion puta brže
07:45
than biochemical ones,
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od biohemijskih,
07:46
so this machine should think
about a million times faster
about a million times faster
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tako da bi ove mašine razmišljale
oko milion puta brže
oko milion puta brže
07:49
than the minds that built it.
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od umova koje su ih sastavile.
07:51
So you set it running for a week,
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Pustite ih da rade nedelju dana,
07:53
and it will perform 20,000 years
of human-level intellectual work,
of human-level intellectual work,
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i izvešće 20.000 godina
ljudskog intelektualnog rada,
ljudskog intelektualnog rada,
07:58
week after week after week.
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nedelju za nedeljom.
08:01
How could we even understand,
much less constrain,
much less constrain,
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Kako čak možemo i razumeti,
a kamoli ograničiti
a kamoli ograničiti
08:04
a mind making this sort of progress?
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um koji bi mogao ovo da uradi?
08:08
The other thing that's worrying, frankly,
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Iskreno, ono drugo što je zabrinjavajuće
08:11
is that, imagine the best case scenario.
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je da, zamislite najbolji mogući scenario.
08:16
So imagine we hit upon a design
of superintelligent AI
of superintelligent AI
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Zamislite da nabasamo na neki dizajn
superinteligentne VI
superinteligentne VI
08:20
that has no safety concerns.
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čija nas sigurnost ne brine.
08:21
We have the perfect design
the first time around.
the first time around.
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Po prvi put imamo savršeni dizajn.
08:24
It's as though we've been handed an oracle
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To je kao da nam je dato proročanstvo
08:27
that behaves exactly as intended.
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koje se odvija baš kako je zapisano.
08:29
Well, this machine would be
the perfect labor-saving device.
the perfect labor-saving device.
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Ta mašina bi bila savršeni
uređaj za uštedu radne snage.
uređaj za uštedu radne snage.
08:33
It can design the machine
that can build the machine
that can build the machine
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Dizajnirala bi mašinu
koja može napraviti mašine
koja može napraviti mašine
08:36
that can do any physical work,
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za bilo kakav fizički posao,
08:37
powered by sunlight,
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a koje bi napajalo sunce,
08:39
more or less for the cost
of raw materials.
of raw materials.
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manje-više po ceni sirovina.
08:42
So we're talking about
the end of human drudgery.
the end of human drudgery.
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Pričamo o kraju teškog ljudskog rada.
08:45
We're also talking about the end
of most intellectual work.
of most intellectual work.
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Takođe pričamo o kraju
većeg dela intelektualnog rada.
većeg dela intelektualnog rada.
08:49
So what would apes like ourselves
do in this circumstance?
do in this circumstance?
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Pa šta će onda majmuni poput nas
da rade u takvim okolnostima?
da rade u takvim okolnostima?
08:52
Well, we'd be free to play Frisbee
and give each other massages.
and give each other massages.
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Pa, imali bismo vremena za frizbi
i da masiramo jedni druga.
i da masiramo jedni druga.
08:57
Add some LSD and some
questionable wardrobe choices,
questionable wardrobe choices,
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Dodajmo malo LSD-a i neke
diskutabilne garderobe,
diskutabilne garderobe,
09:00
and the whole world
could be like Burning Man.
could be like Burning Man.
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i ceo svet bi mogao
biti poput festivala Burning Man.
biti poput festivala Burning Man.
09:02
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:06
Now, that might sound pretty good,
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E, sad, to možda zvuči kao dobra ideja,
09:09
but ask yourself what would happen
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ali zapitajte se šta bi se desilo
09:11
under our current economic
and political order?
and political order?
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pod našim trenutnim ekonomskim
i političkim poretkom?
i političkim poretkom?
09:14
It seems likely that we would witness
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Čini se verovatnim da bismo bili svedoci
09:16
a level of wealth inequality
and unemployment
and unemployment
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određenog nivoa novčane nejednakosti
i nezaposlenosti
i nezaposlenosti
09:21
that we have never seen before.
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koji ranije nismo viđali.
09:22
Absent a willingness
to immediately put this new wealth
to immediately put this new wealth
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Uz odsustvo volje da
se odmah ovo novo bogatstvo stavi
se odmah ovo novo bogatstvo stavi
09:25
to the service of all humanity,
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na raspolaganje čovečanstvu,
09:27
a few trillionaires could grace
the covers of our business magazines
the covers of our business magazines
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nekoliko bilionera bi poziralo
na omotima biznis magazina
na omotima biznis magazina
09:31
while the rest of the world
would be free to starve.
would be free to starve.
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dok bi ostatak sveta slobodno
mogao umreti od gladi.
mogao umreti od gladi.
09:34
And what would the Russians
or the Chinese do
or the Chinese do
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I šta bi radili Rusi ili Kinezi
09:36
if they heard that some company
in Silicon Valley
in Silicon Valley
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kada bi čuli da tamo neka firma
iz Silicijumske doline
iz Silicijumske doline
09:39
was about to deploy a superintelligent AI?
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treba da izbaci superinteligentnu VI?
09:42
This machine would be capable
of waging war,
of waging war,
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Ova mašina bi bila sposobna da vodi rat,
09:44
whether terrestrial or cyber,
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bilo klasični, bilo sajber rat,
09:47
with unprecedented power.
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nadmoćna bez presedana.
09:50
This is a winner-take-all scenario.
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Ovo je scenario pobednik nosi sve.
09:52
To be six months ahead
of the competition here
of the competition here
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Biti šest meseci ispred konkurencije ovde
09:55
is to be 500,000 years ahead,
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je isto biti 500 000 godina ispred,
09:57
at a minimum.
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u najmanju ruku.
09:59
So it seems that even mere rumors
of this kind of breakthrough
of this kind of breakthrough
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Tako se čini da bi čak i samo glasina
o proboju ovog tipa
o proboju ovog tipa
10:04
could cause our species to go berserk.
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izazvala ludnicu među ljudima.
10:06
Now, one of the most frightening things,
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I, sad, jedna od najstarašnijih stvari,
10:09
in my view, at this moment,
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prema mom mišljenju, trenutno,
10:12
are the kinds of things
that AI researchers say
that AI researchers say
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su one stvari koje istraživači VI kažu
10:16
when they want to be reassuring.
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kada žele da vas ohrabre.
10:19
And the most common reason
we're told not to worry is time.
we're told not to worry is time.
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I najuobičajeniji razlog zbog koga
nam kažu da ne brinemo jeste vreme.
nam kažu da ne brinemo jeste vreme.
10:22
This is all a long way off,
don't you know.
don't you know.
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Sve je to daleko, znate.
10:24
This is probably 50 or 100 years away.
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To je verovatno 50 ili 100 godina daleko.
10:27
One researcher has said,
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Jedan istraživač je rekao:
10:29
"Worrying about AI safety
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"Briga o bezbednosti VI
10:30
is like worrying
about overpopulation on Mars."
about overpopulation on Mars."
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je kao briga o prenaseljenosti Marsa."
Ovo je kao kada vam
iz Silicijumske doline kažu:
iz Silicijumske doline kažu:
10:34
This is the Silicon Valley version
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10:35
of "don't worry your
pretty little head about it."
pretty little head about it."
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"Nemojte vi zamarati vaše glavice time."
10:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:39
No one seems to notice
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Izgleda da niko ne primećuje
10:41
that referencing the time horizon
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da je odnos prema vremenu
10:44
is a total non sequitur.
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potpuni non sequitur.
10:46
If intelligence is just a matter
of information processing,
of information processing,
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Ako je inteligencija samo stvar
procesuiranja informacija,
procesuiranja informacija,
10:49
and we continue to improve our machines,
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i mi nastavimo da poboljšavamo mašine,
10:52
we will produce
some form of superintelligence.
some form of superintelligence.
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proizvešćemo neki
oblik superinteligencije.
oblik superinteligencije.
10:56
And we have no idea
how long it will take us
how long it will take us
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I nemamo pojma
koliko će nam trebati vremena
koliko će nam trebati vremena
11:00
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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da stvorimo uslove da to uradimo bezbedno.
11:04
Let me say that again.
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Dozvolite mi da ponovim.
11:05
We have no idea how long it will take us
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Nemamo pojma koliko vremena će nam trebati
11:09
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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da stvorimo uslove da to uradimo bezbedno.
11:12
And if you haven't noticed,
50 years is not what it used to be.
50 years is not what it used to be.
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Ako niste primetili,
50 godina nije kao što je bilo ranije.
50 godina nije kao što je bilo ranije.
11:16
This is 50 years in months.
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Ovo je 50 godina u mesecima.
11:18
This is how long we've had the iPhone.
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Ovoliko dugo već imamo iPhone.
11:21
This is how long "The Simpsons"
has been on television.
has been on television.
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Ovoliko se već prikazuju "Simpsonovi".
11:24
Fifty years is not that much time
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Pedeset godina nije mnogo vremena
11:27
to meet one of the greatest challenges
our species will ever face.
our species will ever face.
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da se ostvari jedan od najvećih
izazova naše vrste.
izazova naše vrste.
11:31
Once again, we seem to be failing
to have an appropriate emotional response
to have an appropriate emotional response
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Još jedanput, izgleda da nam nedostaje
odgovarajući emocionalni odgovor
odgovarajući emocionalni odgovor
11:35
to what we have every reason
to believe is coming.
to believe is coming.
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na ono na šta imamo svako pravo
da verujemo da dolazi.
da verujemo da dolazi.
11:38
The computer scientist Stuart Russell
has a nice analogy here.
has a nice analogy here.
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Kompjuterski naučnik Stjuart Rasel
ima lepu analogiju za ovo.
ima lepu analogiju za ovo.
11:42
He said, imagine that we received
a message from an alien civilization,
a message from an alien civilization,
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On kaže, zamislite da smo primili
neku poruku od vanzemaljaca,
neku poruku od vanzemaljaca,
11:47
which read:
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u kojoj stoji:
11:49
"People of Earth,
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"Zemljani,
11:50
we will arrive on your planet in 50 years.
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stižemo na vašu planetu za 50 godina.
11:53
Get ready."
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Spremite se."
11:55
And now we're just counting down
the months until the mothership lands?
the months until the mothership lands?
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I mi ćemo samo da odbrojavamo mesece
dok se njihov brod ne spusti?
dok se njihov brod ne spusti?
11:59
We would feel a little
more urgency than we do.
more urgency than we do.
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Osetili bismo malo
više straha nego obično.
više straha nego obično.
12:04
Another reason we're told not to worry
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Drugo zbog čega kažu da ne brinemo
12:06
is that these machines
can't help but share our values
can't help but share our values
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je da ove mašine ne mogu drugačije
nego da dele naše vrednosti
nego da dele naše vrednosti
12:09
because they will be literally
extensions of ourselves.
extensions of ourselves.
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zato što će one bukvalno biti
produžeci nas samih.
produžeci nas samih.
12:12
They'll be grafted onto our brains,
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One će biti nakalamljene na naš mozak
12:14
and we'll essentially
become their limbic systems.
become their limbic systems.
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i mi ćemo suštinski postati
limbički sistem.
limbički sistem.
12:17
Now take a moment to consider
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Sad na trenutak razmislite
12:18
that the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
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da je najbezbednija i jedina
razborita i preporučena,
razborita i preporučena,
12:21
recommended,
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putanja napred,
12:23
is to implant this technology
directly into our brains.
directly into our brains.
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da ovu tehnologiju implementiramo
direktno u naš mozak.
direktno u naš mozak.
12:26
Now, this may in fact be the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
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Sad, ovo može biti najbezbednija i jedina
razborita putanja napred,
razborita putanja napred,
12:30
but usually one's safety concerns
about a technology
about a technology
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ali obično se bezbednost neke tehnologije
12:33
have to be pretty much worked out
before you stick it inside your head.
before you stick it inside your head.
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mora baš dobro razmotriti
pre nego što vam se zabode u mozak.
pre nego što vam se zabode u mozak.
12:36
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:38
The deeper problem is that
building superintelligent AI on its own
building superintelligent AI on its own
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Veći problem je što pravljenje
superinteligentne VI same od sebe
superinteligentne VI same od sebe
12:44
seems likely to be easier
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izgleda lakše
12:45
than building superintelligent AI
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od pravljenja superinteligentne VI
12:47
and having the completed neuroscience
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i kompletiranja neuronauke
12:49
that allows us to seamlessly
integrate our minds with it.
integrate our minds with it.
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koja nam omogućava da
integrišemo naše umove sa njom.
integrišemo naše umove sa njom.
12:52
And given that the companies
and governments doing this work
and governments doing this work
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I ako imamo to da kompanije
i vlade rade ovaj posao,
i vlade rade ovaj posao,
12:56
are likely to perceive themselves
as being in a race against all others,
as being in a race against all others,
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one će verovatno to shvatiti
kao da se takmiče protiv svih drugih,
kao da se takmiče protiv svih drugih,
12:59
given that to win this race
is to win the world,
is to win the world,
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jer pobediti u ovoj trci
znači osvojiti svet,
znači osvojiti svet,
13:02
provided you don't destroy it
in the next moment,
in the next moment,
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uz uslov da ga sledećeg
trenutka ne uništite,
trenutka ne uništite,
13:05
then it seems likely
that whatever is easier to do
that whatever is easier to do
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a onda će verovatno prvo biti urađeno
13:08
will get done first.
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ono što je najlakše.
13:10
Now, unfortunately,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
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E, sad, nažalost,
ja nemam rešenje za ovaj problem,
ja nemam rešenje za ovaj problem,
13:13
apart from recommending
that more of us think about it.
that more of us think about it.
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osim toga da preporučim
da više nas promisli o tome.
da više nas promisli o tome.
13:16
I think we need something
like a Manhattan Project
like a Manhattan Project
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Smatram da nam je potrebno
nešto poput Projekta Menhetn
nešto poput Projekta Menhetn
13:18
on the topic of artificial intelligence.
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2016
na temu veštačke inteligencije.
13:20
Not to build it, because I think
we'll inevitably do that,
we'll inevitably do that,
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Ne da bismo je izgradili, jer mislim
da je to neizbežno,
da je to neizbežno,
13:23
but to understand
how to avoid an arms race
how to avoid an arms race
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već da razumemo
kako da izbegnemo trku naoružanja
kako da izbegnemo trku naoružanja
13:26
and to build it in a way
that is aligned with our interests.
that is aligned with our interests.
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i da je napravimo na način
koji je u skladu sa našim interesima.
koji je u skladu sa našim interesima.
13:30
When you're talking
about superintelligent AI
about superintelligent AI
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Kada se razgovara o superinteligentnoj VI
13:32
that can make changes to itself,
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koja sama sebe može da menja,
13:34
it seems that we only have one chance
to get the initial conditions right,
to get the initial conditions right,
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čini se da imamo samo jednu šansu
da početne uslove postavimo kako treba,
da početne uslove postavimo kako treba,
13:39
and even then we will need to absorb
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a čak i onda ćemo morati da prihvatimo
13:41
the economic and political
consequences of getting them right.
consequences of getting them right.
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ekonomske i političke
posledice pravilne upotrebe.
posledice pravilne upotrebe.
13:45
But the moment we admit
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Ali trenutak kada priznamo
13:47
that information processing
is the source of intelligence,
is the source of intelligence,
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da je obrada informacija
izvor inteligencije,
izvor inteligencije,
13:52
that some appropriate computational system
is what the basis of intelligence is,
is what the basis of intelligence is,
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da je neki odgovarajući računarski sistem
osnova onoga što je inteligencija,
osnova onoga što je inteligencija,
13:58
and we admit that we will improve
these systems continuously,
these systems continuously,
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i prihvatimo da ćemo stalno
unapređivati ove sisteme,
unapređivati ove sisteme,
14:03
and we admit that the horizon
of cognition very likely far exceeds
of cognition very likely far exceeds
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i prihvatimo da će horizont
shvatanja vrlo verovatno daleko nadmašiti
shvatanja vrlo verovatno daleko nadmašiti
14:07
what we currently know,
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ono što trenutno znamo,
14:10
then we have to admit
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onda moramo da prihvatimo
14:11
that we are in the process
of building some sort of god.
of building some sort of god.
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da smo u procesu
pravljenja neke vrste božanstva.
pravljenja neke vrste božanstva.
14:15
Now would be a good time
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Sada bi bilo dobro vreme
14:17
to make sure it's a god we can live with.
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da se postaramo da je to božanstvo
sa kojim bismo mogli živeti.
sa kojim bismo mogli živeti.
14:20
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam mnogo.
14:21
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopherSam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Why you should listen
Sam Harris is the author of five New York Times bestsellers. His books include The End of Faith, Letter to a Christian Nation, The Moral Landscape, Free Will, Lying, Waking Up and Islam and the Future of Tolerance (with Maajid Nawaz). The End of Faith won the 2005 PEN Award for Nonfiction. Harris's writing and public lectures cover a wide range of topics -- neuroscience, moral philosophy, religion, spirituality, violence, human reasoning -- but generally focus on how a growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Harris's work has been published in more than 20 languages and has been discussed in the New York Times, Time, Scientific American, Nature, Newsweek, Rolling Stone and many other journals. He has written for the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, The Economist, The Times (London), the Boston Globe, The Atlantic, The Annals of Neurology and elsewhere. Harris also regularly hosts a popular podcast.
Harris received a degree in philosophy from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in neuroscience from UCLA.
Sam Harris | Speaker | TED.com