TED@State
Paul Collier: New rules for rebuilding a broken nation
Pol Kolijerova (Paul Collier) nova pravila za obnovu razbijene nacije
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Dugotrajni konflikti mogu da unište državu, ostavljajući za sobom siromaštvo i haos. Ali koji je pravi način da se pomogne obnovi države razorene ratom? Na TED@State, Pol Kolijer objašnjava probleme trenutnih post-konfliktnih planova za pomoć i predlaže tri ideje za bolji pristup.
Paul Collier - Economist
Paul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all. Full bio
Paul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about post-conflict recovery
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Govoriću vam o post-konfliktnom oporavku
00:22
and how we might do post-conflict recovery better.
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i kako možemo poboljšati post-konfliktni oporavak.
00:27
The record on post-conflict recovery is not very impressive.
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Zapisi o post-konfliktnom oporavku nisu baš impresivni.
00:32
40 percent of all post-conflict situations,
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40 posto svih post-konfliktnih situacija,
00:36
historically, have reverted back to conflict within a decade.
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istorijski, ponovo su postale konfliktne
u toku jedne decenije.
u toku jedne decenije.
00:40
In fact, they've accounted for half of all civil wars.
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Zapravo, polovina se ubraja u građanske ratove.
00:45
Why has the record been so poor?
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Zašto su zapisi tako siromašni?
00:48
Well, the conventional approach
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Konvencionalni pristup
00:51
to post-conflict situations
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post-konfliktnim situacijama
00:53
has rested on, on kind of, three principles.
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se zasnivao na tri principa.
00:57
The first principle is: it's the politics that matters.
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Prvi princip je: politika je ono što je važno.
01:02
So, the first thing that is prioritized is politics.
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Tako da prva stvar koja ima prioritet je politika.
01:05
Try and build a political settlement first.
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Pokušajte prvo da napravite političko poravnanje.
01:10
And then the second step is to say,
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Zatim sledeći korak je da kažete:
01:13
"The situation is admittedly dangerous, but only for a short time."
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"Ova situacija je zaista opasna, ali samo za kratko vreme."
01:16
So get peacekeepers there, but get them home as soon as possible.
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Dovedite tamo mirotvorce,
ali ih vratite kući što je pre moguće.
ali ih vratite kući što je pre moguće.
01:21
So, short-term peacekeepers.
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Dakle, kratkotrajne mirotvorce.
01:24
And thirdly, what is the exit strategy for the peacekeepers?
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I treće, koja je izlazna strategija za mirotvorce?
01:28
It's an election.
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To su izbori.
01:30
That will produce a legitimate and accountable government.
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To će proizvesti legitimnu i odgovornu vlast.
01:35
So that's the conventional approach.
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Dakle, ovo je konvenconalni pristup.
01:38
I think that approach denies reality.
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Smatram da ovaj pristup negira stvarnost.
01:42
We see that there is no quick fix.
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Vidimo da nema brzog rešenja.
01:46
There's certainly no quick security fix.
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Sigurno ne postoji brzo bezbednosno rešenje.
01:49
I've tried to look at the risks of reversion to conflict,
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Pokušao sam da uočim rizike vraćanja na sukob,
01:52
during our post-conflict decade.
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tokom naše post-konfliktne decenije.
01:54
And the risks stay high throughout the decade.
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I rizici ostaju visoki tokom cele decenije.
01:58
And they stay high regardless of the political innovations.
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I ostaju visoki bez obzira na političke inovacije.
02:05
Does an election produce an accountable and legitimate government?
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Da li izbori proizvode odgovornu i legitimnu vlast?
02:10
What an election produces is a winner and a loser.
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Ono što izbori proizvode su pobednici i gubitnici.
02:15
And the loser is unreconciled.
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A gubitnik je neprilagođen.
02:20
The reality is that we need to reverse the sequence.
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Realnost je da moramo da preokrenemo redosled.
02:24
It's not the politics first;
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Politika nije na prvom mestu;
02:26
it's actually the politics last.
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politika je zapravo poslednja.
02:29
The politics become easier as the decade progresses
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Politika je sve lakša kako decenija odmiče
02:32
if you're building on a foundation
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ako gradite na temelju
02:35
of security and economic development --
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bezbednosnog i ekonomskog razvoja -
02:40
the rebuilding of prosperity.
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ponovna izgradnja prosperiteta.
02:42
Why does the politics get easier?
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Zašto politika postaje lakša?
02:44
And why is it so difficult initially?
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Zašto je tako teška na početku?
02:46
Because after years of stagnation and decline,
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Zato što posle više godina stagnacije i opadanja,
02:50
the mentality of politics is that it's a zero-sum game.
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mentalitet politike je takav
da je to igra nulte sume (strogo kompetitivna).
da je to igra nulte sume (strogo kompetitivna).
02:56
If the reality is stagnation,
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Ako je stagnacija stvarnost,
02:58
I can only go up if you go down.
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mogu jedino da idem gore ako vi idete dole.
03:01
And that doesn't produce a productive politics.
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A to ne proizvodi produktivnu politiku.
03:06
And so the mentality has to shift from
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Tako da način razmišljanja mora da se promeni od
03:09
zero-sum to positive-sum
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nulte na pozitivnu sumu
03:11
before you can get a productive politics.
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pre no što dobijete produktivnu politiku.
03:15
You can only get positive, that mental shift,
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Možete jedino dobiti pozitivan rezultat,
taj mentalni pomak,
taj mentalni pomak,
03:17
if the reality is that prosperity is being built.
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ako je realnost takva da se gradi prosperitet.
03:21
And in order to build prosperity, we need security in place.
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A da bi mogao da se izgradi prosperitet,
treba nam bezbednost.
treba nam bezbednost.
03:26
So that is what you get when you face reality.
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To je ono što dobijate kada se suočite sa realnošću.
03:28
But the objective of facing reality
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Ali cilj suočavanja sa realnošću
03:30
is to change reality.
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je da se promeni realnost.
03:32
And so now let me suggest
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Dozvolite mi sada da predložim
03:34
two complimentary approaches
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dva komplementarna pristupa
03:38
to changing the reality of the situations.
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za izmenu realnosti situacije.
03:41
The first is to recognize the interdependence
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Prvi je da prepoznamo međuzavisnost
03:45
of three key actors, who are different actors,
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tri ključna različita učesnika,
03:50
and at the moment are uncoordinated.
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koji su trenutno nekoordinisani.
03:53
The first actor is the Security Council.
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Prvi učesnik je Savet bezbednosti.
03:56
The Security Council typically has the responsibility
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Savet bezbednosti standardno ima odgovornost
04:00
for providing the peacekeepers
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za pripremu mirotvoraca
04:02
who build the security.
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koji grade bezbednost.
04:05
And that needs to be recognized,
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To treba da bude prepoznato,
04:07
first of all, that peacekeeping works.
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pre svega, da očuvanje mira funkcioniše.
04:10
It is a cost-effective approach.
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To je isplativ pristup.
04:12
It does increase security.
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On zaista povećava bezbednost.
04:15
But it needs to be done long-term.
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Ali mora da se izvodi na duže staze.
04:17
It needs to be a decade-long approach,
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To mora da bude decenijski pristup,
04:19
rather than just a couple of years.
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a ne tek na par godina.
04:21
That's one actor, the Security Council.
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To je jedan učesnik, Savet bezbednosti.
04:24
The second actor, different cast of guys,
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Drugi učesnik, drugačiji skup ljudi,
04:27
is the donors.
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su donatori.
04:29
The donors provide post-conflict aid.
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Donatori omogućavaju post-konfliktnu pomoć.
04:32
Typically in the past,
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Uobičajeno u prošlosti,
04:35
the donors have been interested in the first couple of years,
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donatori su bili zainteresovani u prvih nekoliko godina,
04:38
and then they got bored.
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a zatim im je postalo dosadno.
04:40
They moved on to some other situation.
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Orijentisali su se na neku drugu situaciju.
04:43
Post-conflict economic recovery
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Post-konfliktni ekonomski oporavak
04:45
is a slow process.
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je spor proces.
04:47
There are no quick processes in economics
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Ne postoje brzi procesi u ekonomiji
04:50
except decline.
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osim pada.
04:52
You can do that quite fast.
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To možete da izvedete prilično brzo.
04:54
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:55
So the donors have to stick with this situation
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Stoga donatori moraju da se drže ove situacije
05:00
for at least a decade.
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bar jednu deceniju.
05:04
And then the third key actor
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A zatim treći ključni učesnik
05:06
is the post-conflict government.
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je post-konfliktna vlada.
05:09
And there are two key things it's got to do.
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Postoje dve ključne stvari koje ona treba da uradi.
05:11
One is it's got to do economic reform,
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Prvo, mora da sprovede ekonomsku reformu,
05:15
not fuss about the political constitution.
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a ne da zamajava galamom o političkoj upravi.
05:18
It's got to reform economic policy.
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Mora da reformiše ekonomsku politiku.
05:20
Why? Because during conflict
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Zašto? Zato što se tokom konflikta
05:23
economic policy typically deteriorates.
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ekonomska politika po običaju pogoršava.
05:26
Governments snatch short-term opportunities
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Vlade grabe kratkoročne mogućnosti
05:30
and, by the end of the conflict, the chickens have come home to roost.
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i po završetku konflikta,
kokoške se vraćaju u kokošinjac.
kokoške se vraćaju u kokošinjac.
05:34
So this legacy of conflict is really bad economic policy.
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Dakle, konflikt ostavlja u nasleđe
lošu ekonomsku politiku.
lošu ekonomsku politiku.
05:37
So there is a reform agenda, and there is an inclusion agenda.
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Tako da postoji program reforme
i postoji program inkluzije.
i postoji program inkluzije.
05:41
The inclusion agenda doesn't come from elections.
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Program inkluzije ne dolazi od izbora.
05:44
Elections produce a loser, who is then excluded.
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Izbori proizvode gubitnika, koji je tada isključen.
05:49
So the inclusion agenda means genuinely
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Zato program inkluzije u suštini podrazumeva
05:52
bringing people inside the tent.
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uvođenje ljudi u šator.
05:55
So those three actors.
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To su tri aktera.
05:57
And they are interdependent
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Oni su međuzavisni
05:59
over a long term.
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tokom dužeg vremena.
06:02
If the Security Council doesn't commit to security
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Ukoliko se Savet bezbednosti ne posveti bezbednosti
06:06
over the course of a decade,
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u toku decenije,
06:08
you don't get the reassurance which produces private investment.
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nemate sigurnost koja proizvodi privatne investicije.
06:12
If you don't get the policy reform and the aid,
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Ako nemate reformu politike i pomoć,
06:16
you don't get the economic recovery,
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nemate ekonomski oporavak,
06:18
which is the true exit strategy for the peacekeepers.
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koji je prava izlazna strategija za mirotvorce.
06:22
So we should recognize that interdependence,
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Zato bi trebalo da prepoznamo tu međuzavisnost
06:26
by formal, mutual commitments.
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kroz formalne, zajedničke obaveze.
06:29
The United Nations actually has a language
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Ujedinjene nacije zapravo imaju jezik
06:32
for these mutual commitments, the recognition of mutual commitments;
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za ove zajedničke obaveze,
prepoznavanje zajedničkih obaveza;
prepoznavanje zajedničkih obaveza;
06:35
it's called the language of compact.
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koji zovu jezik sporazuma.
06:39
And so we need a post-conflict compact.
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Stoga nam treba post-konfliktni sporazum.
06:42
The United Nations even has an agency which could broker these compacts;
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Ujedinjene nacije čak imaju agenciju koja može
da posreduje u ovim sporazumima.
da posreduje u ovim sporazumima.
06:45
it's called the Peace Building Commission.
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Zove se Komisija za izgradnju mira.
06:49
It would be ideal to have a standard set of norms
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Bilo bi idealno da imamo standardnu grupu normi
06:54
where, when we got to a post-conflict situation,
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gde, kada dođemo do post-konfliktne situacije,
06:57
there was an expectation of these mutual commitments
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postoje očekivanja ovih zajedničkih obaveza
07:01
from the three parties.
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ova tri učesnika.
07:04
So that's idea one:
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Dakle, prva ideja je:
07:07
recognize interdependence.
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prepoznati međuzavisnost.
07:10
And now let me turn to the second approach, which is complimentary.
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Sada, dozvolite mi da se usredsredim
na drugi pristup, koji je laskav.
na drugi pristup, koji je laskav.
07:14
And that is to focus on a few critical objectives.
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A to je da se fokusiramo na nekoliko kritičnih ciljeva.
07:23
Typical post-conflict situation is a zoo
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Tipična post-konfliktna situacija je zbrka
07:26
of different actors with different priorities.
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različitih aktera sa različitim prioritetima.
07:30
And indeed, unfortunately, if you navigate by needs
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Zaista, na žalost, ako se orijentišete prema potrebama
07:34
you get a very unfocused agenda,
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dobijate vrlo nefokusiran program,
07:37
because in these situations, needs are everywhere,
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jer u ovim situacijama, potrebe postoje svuda,
07:40
but the capacity to implement change is very limited.
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ali mogućnost da se implementira
promena je veoma ograničena.
promena je veoma ograničena.
07:44
So we have to be disciplined and focus on things that are critical.
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Zato moramo biti disciplinovani i fokusirani
na stvari koje su kritične.
na stvari koje su kritične.
07:49
And I want to suggest that in the typical post-conflict situation
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Želim da dodam da u tipičnoj post-konfliktnoj situaciji
07:52
three things are critical.
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tri stvari su kritične.
07:55
One is jobs.
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Jedna su poslovi.
07:57
One is improvements in basic services --
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Jedna su poboljšanja u osnovnim uslugama -
07:59
especially health, which is a disaster during conflict.
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posebno u zdravstvu, koje je katastrofalno u toku konflikata.
08:03
So jobs, health, and clean government.
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Dakle, poslovi, zdravlje i čista vlada.
08:08
Those are the three critical priorities.
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To su tri kritična prioriteta.
08:12
So I'm going to talk a little about each of them.
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Tako da ću da govorim malo o svakom od njih.
08:14
Jobs.
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Poslovi.
08:16
What is a distinctive approach
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Šta je prepoznatljiv način
08:19
to generating jobs in post-conflict situations?
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stvaranja radnih mesta u post-konfliktnim situacijama?
08:22
And why are jobs so important?
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I zašto su poslovi tako važni?
08:24
Jobs for whom? Especially jobs for young men.
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Poslovi za koga? Posebno poslovi za mlade muškarce.
08:29
In post-conflict situations,
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U post-konfliktnim situacijama,
08:31
the reason that they so often revert to conflict,
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razlog zbog kog se oni tako često uključuju u konflikt,
08:35
is not because elderly women get upset.
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nije zato što starije žene bivaju uznemirene.
08:38
It's because young men get upset.
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Već zato što mladi ljudi bivaju uznemireni.
08:41
And why are they upset? Because they have nothing to do.
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A zašto su uznemireni?
Zato što nemaju šta da rade.
Zato što nemaju šta da rade.
08:44
And so we need a process of generating jobs,
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Stoga nam treba proces stvaranja radnih mesta,
08:50
for ordinary young men, fast.
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za obične mlade ljude i to brzo.
08:53
Now, that is difficult.
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E sad, to je teško.
08:56
Governments in post-conflict situation
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Vlade u post-konfliktnim situacijama
08:58
often respond by puffing up the civil service.
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često odgovore tako što uvećaju državnu upravu.
09:02
That is not a good idea.
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To nije dobra ideja.
09:04
It's not sustainable.
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Nije održiva.
09:06
In fact, you're building a long-term liability
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Zapravo, stvarate dugoročnu obavezu
09:09
by inflating civil service.
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naduvavanjem državne uprave.
09:11
But getting the private sector to expand is also difficult,
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Ali proširiti privatni sektor je takođe teško,
09:15
because any activity which is open to international trade
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jer bilo koja aktivnost koja je otvorena
prema međunarodnoj trgovini
prema međunarodnoj trgovini
09:20
is basically going to be uncompetitive
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će u suštini biti nekonkurentna
09:22
in a post-conflict situation.
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u post-konfliktnoj situaciji.
09:24
These are not environments where you can build export manufacturing.
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To nisu uslovi u kojima možete
izgraditi proizvodnju za izvoz.
izgraditi proizvodnju za izvoz.
09:29
There's one sector which isn't exposed to international trade,
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Postoji jedan sektor koji nije izložen međunarodnoj trgovini,
09:34
and which can generate a lot of jobs,
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a koji može da generiše mnogo radnih mesta,
09:37
and which is, in any case, a sensible sector
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i koji je, u svakom slučaju, osetljiv sektor
09:39
to expand, post-conflict,
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za proširenje, post-konfliktno,
09:41
and that is the construction sector.
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a to je građevinski sektor.
09:45
The construction sector has a vital role,
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Građevinski sektor ima ključnu ulogu,
09:48
obviously, in reconstruction.
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očigledno, u rekonstrukciji.
09:51
But typically that sector has withered away during conflict.
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Ali tipično, ovaj sektor presuši tokom sukoba.
09:56
During conflict people are doing destruction.
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Tokom sukoba ljudi uništavaju.
09:58
There isn't any construction going on. And so the sector shrivels away.
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Nikakva gradnja se ne dešava.
I tako se ovaj sektor umanjuje.
I tako se ovaj sektor umanjuje.
10:02
And then when you try and expand it,
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A kada pokušate da ga proširite,
10:04
because it's shriveled away,
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jer se smanjio,
10:06
you encounter a lot of bottlenecks.
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naiđete na mnogo uskih grla.
10:09
Basically, prices soar
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U osnovi, cene skaču,
10:11
and crooked politicians then milk the rents from the sector,
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a korumpirani političari izvuku zakupnine iz sektora,
10:15
but it doesn't generate any jobs.
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a ne stvaraju nikakva radna mesta.
10:17
And so the policy priority is to break the bottlenecks
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Tako da je prioritet politike da razbije ta uska grla
10:20
in expanding the construction sector.
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proširivanjem građevinskog sektora.
10:23
What might the bottlenecks be?
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Šta mogu biti ta uska grla?
10:25
Just think what you have to do
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Samo zamislite šta morate da radite
10:28
successfully to build a structure, using a lot of labor.
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uspešno da biste sagradili građevinu,
koristeći mnogo rada.
koristeći mnogo rada.
10:31
First you need access to land.
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Prvo vam treba pristup terenu.
10:33
Often the legal system is broken down
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Često je pravni sistem razbijen
10:35
so you can't even get access to land.
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tako da ne možete dobiti čak ni pristup terenu.
10:37
Secondly you need skills,
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Drugo, trebaju vam određene veštine,
10:39
the mundane skills of the construction sector.
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svetske veštine građevinskog sektora.
10:43
In post-conflict situations we don't just need Doctors Without Borders,
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U post-konfliktnim situacijama
ne trebaju nam samo Lekari bez granica
ne trebaju nam samo Lekari bez granica
10:47
we need Bricklayers Without Borders,
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trebaju nam i Zidari bez granica,
10:49
to rebuild the skill set.
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da bismo obnovili skup veština.
10:52
We need firms. The firms have gone away.
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Trebaju nam firme. Firme su otišle.
10:55
So we need to encourage the growth of local firms.
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Zato treba da podstičemo razvoj lokalnih firmi.
10:58
If we do that, we not only get the jobs,
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Ako to učinimo, ne samo da dobijamo radna mesta,
11:01
we get the improvements in public infrastructure,
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već dobijamo i poboljšanja u javnoj infrastrukturi,
11:04
the restoration of public infrastructure.
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obnovu javne infrastrukture.
11:07
Let me turn from jobs to the second objective,
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Dozvolite mi da se prebacim
sa radnih mesta na drugi cilj,
sa radnih mesta na drugi cilj,
11:13
which is improving basic social services.
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odnosno na poboljšanje osnovnih socijalnih službi.
11:17
And to date, there has been a sort of a schizophrenia
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Do sada, bila je neka vrsta šizofrenije
11:21
in the donor community,
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u donatorskoj zajednici,
11:23
as to how to build basic services
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o tome kako da izgradimo osnovne službe
11:26
in post-conflict sectors.
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u post-konfliktnom sektoru.
11:28
On the one hand it pays lip service
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S jedne strane deklarativno se isplati
11:30
to the idea of rebuild an effective state
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ideja obnove efikasne države
11:34
in the image of Scandinavia in the 1950s.
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po uzoru na Skandinaviju 1950-ih.
11:37
Lets develop line ministries of this, that, and the other,
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Hajde da osnujemo resorna ministarstva
ovoga, onoga i nečeg drugog,
ovoga, onoga i nečeg drugog,
11:40
that deliver these services.
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koji pružaju te usluge.
11:43
And it's schizophrenic because in their hearts
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To je šizofreno jer duboko u sebi
11:46
donors know that's not a realistic agenda,
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donatori znaju da to nije realističan program,
11:49
and so what they also do is the total bypass:
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tako da ono što oni takođe rade
je potpuno premošćavanje:
je potpuno premošćavanje:
11:52
just fund NGOs.
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samo osnivaju nevladine organizacije.
11:56
Neither of those approaches is sensible.
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Nijedan od tih pristupa nije razuman.
11:59
And so what I'd suggest
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Ono što bih ja predložio
12:03
is what I call Independent Service Authorities.
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je nešto što zovem servis nezavisne vlasti.
12:06
It's to split the functions of a monopoly line ministry up into three.
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To je da bi se podelile funkcije
monopola resornih ministara na tri dela.
monopola resornih ministara na tri dela.
12:11
The planning function and policy function stays with the ministry;
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Funkcija planiranja i politička funkcija
ostaju uz ministarstvo;
ostaju uz ministarstvo;
12:15
the delivery of services on the ground,
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pružanje usluga na terenu,
12:18
you should use whatever works --
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možete upotrebiti šta god funkcioniše -
12:20
churches, NGOs, local communities,
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crkve, nevladine organizacije, lokalne zajednice,
12:23
whatever works.
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šta god funkcioniše.
12:25
And in between, there should be a public agency,
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A između toga, treba da postoji javna služba,
12:28
the Independent Service Authority,
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servis nezavisne vlasti,
12:30
which channels public money,
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koji prosleđuje javna sredstva,
12:32
and especially donor money,
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posebno novac donatora,
12:34
to the retail providers.
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do maloprodajnih usluga.
12:37
So the NGOs become part of a public government system,
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Tako nevladine organizacije postaju
deo javnog sistema vlasti,
deo javnog sistema vlasti,
12:42
rather than independent of it.
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ne postoje nezavisno od njega.
12:45
One advantage of that is that you can allocate money coherently.
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Prednost ovoga je što možete razumno da izdvojite novac.
12:49
Another is, you can make NGOs accountable.
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Druga je, možete da učinite
nevladine organizacije odgovornijim.
nevladine organizacije odgovornijim.
12:52
You can use yardstick competition,
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Možete da uvedete merenja
radi podsticanja konkurencije,
radi podsticanja konkurencije,
12:54
so they have to compete against each other
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tako da one moraju da se takmiče jedne protiv drugih
12:57
for the resources.
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za sredstva.
12:59
The good NGOs, like Oxfam, are very keen on this idea.
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Dobre nevladine organizacije, kao Oxfam,
su veoma zainteresovane za ovu ideju.
su veoma zainteresovane za ovu ideju.
13:02
They want to have the discipline and accountability.
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Žele da imaju disciplinu i odgovornost.
13:08
So that's a way to get basic services scaled up.
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Dakle, to je način da prilagodite osnovne službe.
13:11
And because the government would be funding it,
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A pošto bi ih vlada finansirala,
13:14
it would be co-branding these services.
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to bi bilo ko-brendiranje ovih službi.
13:16
So they wouldn't be provided thanks to
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Tako da ne bi bile snabdevane zahvaljujući
13:20
the United States government and some NGO.
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Sjedinjenim Državama i
nekim nevladinim organizacijama.
nekim nevladinim organizacijama.
13:24
They would be co-branded
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Bile bi ko-brendirane
13:26
as being done by the post-conflict government, in the country.
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kao da je to uradila post-konfliktna vlast u zemlji.
13:31
So, jobs, basic services, finally, clean government.
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Tako da, radna mesta, osnovne službe,
konačno, čista vlada.
konačno, čista vlada.
13:37
Clean means follow their money.
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Čisto znači praćenje njihovog novca.
13:40
The typical post-conflict government is so short of money
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Uobičajena post-konfliktna vlada
je toliko u manjku sa novcem
je toliko u manjku sa novcem
13:45
that it needs our money
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da joj treba naš novac
13:47
just to be on a life-support system.
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samo da bi bila na sistemu za održavanje života.
13:50
You can't get the basic functions of the state done
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Ne možete omogućiti da
osnovne funkcije države rade
osnovne funkcije države rade
13:53
unless we put money into the core budget of these countries.
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ukoliko ne stavimo novac u osnovni budžet tih država.
13:57
But, if we put money into the core budget,
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Ali, ako stavimo novac u osnovni budžet
14:01
we know that there aren't the budget systems with integrity
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znamo da tamo ne postoji
budžetski sistem sa integritetom
budžetski sistem sa integritetom
14:08
that mean that money will be well spent.
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koji bi garantovao da će novac biti dobro utrošen.
14:11
And if all we do is put money in and close our eyes
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A ako sve što uradimo je
da uložimo novac i zatvorimo oči
da uložimo novac i zatvorimo oči
14:15
it's not just that the money is wasted --
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ne samo da će novac biti protraćen -
14:17
that's the least of the problems --
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to je najmanji problem -
14:19
it's that the money is captured.
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već će biti zarobljen.
14:22
It's captured by the crooks who are at the heart of the political problem.
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Zarobiće ga pokvarenjaci
koji su u središtu političkih problema.
koji su u središtu političkih problema.
14:28
And so inadvertently we empower the people who are the problem.
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Na taj način nehotice osnažujemo ljude koji su problem.
14:33
So building clean government means, yes, provide money
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Tako da stvaranje čistih vlada znači,
obezbeđivanje novca
obezbeđivanje novca
14:36
to the budget,
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za budžet,
14:38
but also provide a lot of scrutiny,
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ali i omogućavanje dosta kontrole,
14:43
which means a lot of technical assistance that follows the money.
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što podrazumeva mnogo
tehničke podrške koja prati novac.
tehničke podrške koja prati novac.
14:46
Paddy Ashdown, who was the grand high nabob of Bosnia
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Pedi Ešdaun, koji je bio visoki predstavnik Bosne
14:51
to the United Nations,
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u Ujedinjenim nacijama,
14:53
in his book about his experience, he said,
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u svojim memoarima je rekao:
14:55
"I realize what I needed
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"Ja shvatam da su mi trebale
14:58
was accountants without borders,
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računovođe bez granica
15:02
to follow that money."
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da prate taj novac."
15:04
So that's the -- let me wrap up,
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Tako da je - dozvolite mi da završim,
15:07
this is the package.
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ovo je taj paket.
15:10
What's the goal?
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Šta je cilj?
15:12
If we follow this, what would we hope to achieve?
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Ako pratimo ovo, kojim postignućima
se možemo nadati?
se možemo nadati?
15:16
That after 10 years,
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Da će nakon 10 godina
15:19
the focus on the construction sector
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fokus na građevinskom sektoru
15:22
would have produced both jobs
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proizvesti i radna mesta
15:24
and, hence, security --
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a samim tim i sigurnost -
15:26
because young people would have jobs --
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jer bi mladi ljudi imali poslove -
15:28
and it would have reconstructed the infrastructure.
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i time bi se rekonstruisala infrastruktura.
15:32
So that's the focus on the construction sector.
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To je fokus na građevinskom sektoru.
15:35
The focus on the basic service delivery
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Fokus na osnovnim uslugama
15:37
through these independent service authorities
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kroz ove nezavisne organe
15:40
would have rescued basic services
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bi spasio osnovne službe
15:43
from their catastrophic levels,
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njihovih katastrofalnih stanja
15:46
and it would have given ordinary people
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i dalo bi običnom narodu
15:49
the sense that the government was doing something useful.
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osećaj da vlada radi nešto korisno.
15:53
The emphasis on clean government
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Naglasak na čistoj vladi
15:56
would have gradually squeezed out the political crooks,
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bi postepeno istisnuo korumpirane političare
15:59
because there wouldn't be any money
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jer ne bi bilo više novca
16:03
in taking part in the politics.
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za učestvovanje u politici.
16:05
And so gradually the selection,
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I postepeno izbor,
16:07
the composition of politicians,
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garnitura političara,
16:09
would shift from the crooked to the honest.
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bi se promenila od korumpiranih na poštene.
16:14
Where would that leave us?
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Gde bi smo tada bili?
16:17
Gradually it would shift
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Postepeno to bi se promenilo
16:19
from a politics of plunder
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sa politike pljačke
16:22
to a politics of hope. Thank you.
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na politiku nade. Hvala vam.
16:25
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Collier - EconomistPaul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all.
Why you should listen
Paul Collier studies the political and economic problems of the very poorest countries: 50 societies, many in sub-Saharan Africa, that are stagnating or in decline, and taking a billion people down with them. His book The Bottom Billion identifies the four traps that keep such countries mired in poverty, and outlines ways to help them escape, with a mix of direct aid and external support for internal change.
From 1998 to 2003, Collier was the director of the World Bank's Development Research Group; he now directs the Centre for the Study of African Economies at Oxford, where he continues to advise policymakers.
Paul Collier | Speaker | TED.com