TED2016
Jennifer Kahn: Gene editing can now change an entire species -- forever
Jennifer Kahn: Ubadilishwaji wa Jeni sasa unaweza kubadili spishi nzima- milele
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Ubadilishaji jeni wa CRISPR unaruhusu wanasayansi kubadilisha mfumo wa DNA na kuthibitisha kwamba matokeo ya ubainishaji kijenetiki uliorekebishwa unarithiwa na vizazi vijavyo, na kufungua uwezekano wa kurekebisha spishi milele. Zaidi ya kitu chochote, teknolojia imepelekea maswali: Jinsi gani nguvu hii mpya itaathiri ubinadamu? Tutaitumia kubadilisha nini? Tumekuwa miungu sasa? Jiunge na mwandishi wa habari Jennifer Kahn anayejiuliza maswali haya na kuelezea ubadilishaji jeni: kutengenezwa kwa mbu wanaokinzana na magonjwa ambao wanaweza kutokomeza malaria na Zika.
Jennifer Kahn - Science journalist
In articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources. Full bio
In articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So this is a talk about gene drives,
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Haya ni mazungumzo ya ubadilishaji jeni,
00:15
but I'm going to start
by telling you a brief story.
by telling you a brief story.
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ila nitaanza kwa kuwaelezea hadithi fupi
00:18
20 years ago, a biologist
named Anthony James
named Anthony James
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miaka 20 iliyopita, mwanabiolojia
aliyeitwa Anthony James
aliyeitwa Anthony James
00:21
got obsessed with the idea
of making mosquitos
of making mosquitos
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alijawa na wazo la kutengeneza mbu
00:24
that didn't transmit malaria.
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ambao hawaambukizi malaria.
00:27
It was a great idea,
and pretty much a complete failure.
and pretty much a complete failure.
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lilikuwa wazo zuri,
na lilishindikana kabisa.
na lilishindikana kabisa.
00:32
For one thing, it turned out
to be really hard
to be really hard
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Kwani, ilikuja kuwa vigumu sana
00:35
to make a malaria-resistant mosquito.
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kutengeneza mbu asiyestahimili malaria.
00:38
James managed it, finally,
just a few years ago,
just a few years ago,
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James hatimaye aliweza,
miaka michache iliyopita,
miaka michache iliyopita,
00:41
by adding some genes
that make it impossible
that make it impossible
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kwa kuongeza jeni
zinazofanya isiwezekane
zinazofanya isiwezekane
00:44
for the malaria parasite
to survive inside the mosquito.
to survive inside the mosquito.
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kwa vimelea vya malaria
kushindwa kuishi ndani ya mbu.
kushindwa kuishi ndani ya mbu.
00:47
But that just created another problem.
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lakini hiyo ilileta tatizo lingine.
00:50
Now that you've got
a malaria-resistant mosquito,
a malaria-resistant mosquito,
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Sasa umeshapata
mbu asiyestahimili malaria,
mbu asiyestahimili malaria,
00:52
how do you get it to replace
all the malaria-carrying mosquitos?
all the malaria-carrying mosquitos?
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utamfanyaje aweze kubadilisha
mbu wote wanaobeba malaria?
mbu wote wanaobeba malaria?
00:58
There are a couple options,
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Kuna chaguzi kadhaa,
00:59
but plan A was basically to breed up
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lakini mpango A ulikuwa wa uzalishaji
01:01
a bunch of the new
genetically-engineered mosquitos
genetically-engineered mosquitos
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kiasi cha mbu wapya
waliotengenezwa kijenetiki
waliotengenezwa kijenetiki
01:04
release them into the wild
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waachilie mwituni
01:06
and hope that they pass on their genes.
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na utegemee kwamba wataeneza jeni zao.
01:08
The problem was that you'd have to release
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Tatizo lilikuwa kwamba ulitakiwa uachilie
01:10
literally 10 times the number
of native mosquitos to work.
of native mosquitos to work.
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kiasi cha mara 10 ya namba
ya mbu wenyeji kufanyakazi
ya mbu wenyeji kufanyakazi
01:15
So in a village with 10,000 mosquitos,
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Hivyo katika kijiji chenye mbu 10,000.
01:17
you release an extra 100,000.
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unaachilia 100,000 wa ziada.
01:20
As you might guess,
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Kama unavyoweza kuhisi,
01:21
this was not a very popular strategy
with the villagers.
with the villagers.
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mkakati huu haukukubalika kwa wanakijiji.
01:24
(Laughter)
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(Kicheko)
01:26
Then, last January,
Anthony James got an email
Anthony James got an email
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Kisha, Januari iliyopita,
Anthony James akapata barua pepe
Anthony James akapata barua pepe
01:30
from a biologist named Ethan Bier.
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kutoka kwa mbiolojia aitwaye Ethan Bier.
01:33
Bier said that he
and his grad student Valentino Gantz
and his grad student Valentino Gantz
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Bier akasema kwamba yeye
na mwanafunzi wake Valentino Gantz
na mwanafunzi wake Valentino Gantz
01:36
had stumbled on a tool
that could not only guarantee
that could not only guarantee
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walikutana na kifaa
ambacho kiweza sio tu kuhakikisha
ambacho kiweza sio tu kuhakikisha
01:39
that a particular genetic trait
would be inherited,
would be inherited,
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kwamba kibainisho cha jenetiki fulani
kitarithiwa
kitarithiwa
01:41
but that it would spread
incredibly quickly.
incredibly quickly.
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lakini hiyo itaeneza
kwa haraka mno.
kwa haraka mno.
01:44
If they were right,
it would basically solve the problem
it would basically solve the problem
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kama wangekuwa sahihi,
ingeweza kutatua tatizo
ingeweza kutatua tatizo
01:47
that he and James had been
working on for 20 years.
working on for 20 years.
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yeye na James walilolifanyia
kazi kwa miaka 20.
kazi kwa miaka 20.
01:50
As a test, they engineered two mosquitos
to carry the anti-malaria gene
to carry the anti-malaria gene
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kama majaribio, walitengeneza mbu wawili
kubeba jeni isiyo na malaria
kubeba jeni isiyo na malaria
01:55
and also this new tool, a gene drive,
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na pia kifaa kipya cha ubadilishaji jeni,
01:57
which I'll explain in a minute.
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ambayo nitaielezea hivi punde.
01:59
Finally, they set it up
so that any mosquitos
so that any mosquitos
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wakakiandaa
ili mbu yeyote
ili mbu yeyote
02:01
that had inherited the anti-malaria gene
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ambaye alirithi jeni isiyo na malaria
02:03
wouldn't have the usual white eyes,
but would instead have red eyes.
but would instead have red eyes.
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asiwe na macho meupe,
awe na macho mekundu.
awe na macho mekundu.
02:08
That was pretty much just for convenience
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Hiyo ilikuwa tu kwa ajili ya urahisi
02:10
so they could tell just at a glance
which was which.
which was which.
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ili waweze kujua kwa kuangalia
yupi ni yupi.
yupi ni yupi.
02:14
So they took their two
anti-malarial, red-eyed mosquitos
anti-malarial, red-eyed mosquitos
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Hivyo walichukua mbu 2
wasio na malaria wenye macho mekundu
wasio na malaria wenye macho mekundu
02:16
and put them in a box
with 30 ordinary white-eyed ones,
with 30 ordinary white-eyed ones,
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na kuwaweka ndani ya boksi
na mbu 30 wenye macho meupe,
na mbu 30 wenye macho meupe,
02:19
and let them breed.
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na kuwaacha wazaliane.
02:21
In two generations, those had produced
3,800 grandchildren.
3,800 grandchildren.
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Ndani ya vizazi viwili, hao walizalisha
wajukuu 3,800.
wajukuu 3,800.
02:26
That is not the surprising part.
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Hiyo sio sehemu ya kushangaza.
02:28
This is the surprising part:
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Hii ndio sehemu ya kushangaza:
02:30
given that you started
with just two red-eyed mosquitos
with just two red-eyed mosquitos
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kutokana na kwamba ulianza
na mbu 2 tu wenye macho mekundu
na mbu 2 tu wenye macho mekundu
02:33
and 30 white-eyed ones,
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na 30 wenye macho meupe,
02:34
you expect mostly white-eyed descendants.
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unategemea wenye macho meupe kuzaana zaidi
02:38
Instead, when James opened the box,
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Badala yake, wakati James akifungua boksi,
02:41
all 3,800 mosquitos had red eyes.
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mbu wote 3,800 walikuwa na macho mekundu.
02:45
When I asked Ethan Bier about this moment,
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Nilipo muuliza Ethan Bier kuhusu hili,
02:47
he became so excited that he was literally
shouting into the phone.
shouting into the phone.
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alipatwa msisimko mkubwa sana kiasi kwamba
alipiga makelele kwenye simu.
alipiga makelele kwenye simu.
02:51
That's because getting
only red-eyed mosquitos
only red-eyed mosquitos
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Ni kwasababu kupata mbu
wenye macho mekundu tu
wenye macho mekundu tu
02:54
violates a rule that is the absolute
cornerstone of biology,
cornerstone of biology,
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inakiuka kanuni ambayo ni
msingi thabiti wa biolojia,
msingi thabiti wa biolojia,
02:57
Mendelian genetics.
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Jenetiki za Mendelia.
02:58
I'll keep this quick,
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Nitaieleza hii haraka,
03:00
but Mendelian genetics
says when a male and a female mate,
says when a male and a female mate,
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jenetiki za Mendelia zadai
mwanamke na mwanaume wakipandana
mwanamke na mwanaume wakipandana
03:02
their baby inherits half
of its DNA from each parent.
of its DNA from each parent.
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mtoto wao hurithi nusu
ya DNA kutoka kwa kila mzazi.
ya DNA kutoka kwa kila mzazi.
03:05
So if our original mosquito was aa
and our new mosquito is aB,
and our new mosquito is aB,
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ikiwa mbu wetu asilia alikuwa aa
na mbu wetu mpya ni aB,
na mbu wetu mpya ni aB,
03:09
where B is the anti-malarial gene,
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na B ni jeni isiyostahimili malaria,
03:11
the babies should come out
in four permutations:
in four permutations:
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watoto wanatakiwa watoke
katika hitari nne:
katika hitari nne:
03:13
aa, aB, aa, Ba.
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aa, aB, aa, Ba.
03:16
Instead, with the new gene drive,
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Badala yake katika ubadilishaji jeni,
03:19
they all came out aB.
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wote walitokea aB.
03:21
Biologically, that shouldn't
even be possible.
even be possible.
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Kibiolojia, hiyo haitakiwi
hata kuwezekana.
hata kuwezekana.
03:24
So what happened?
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Sasa nini kilichotokea?
03:26
The first thing that happened
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Kitu cha kwanza kilichotokea
03:28
was the arrival of a gene-editing tool
known as CRISPR in 2012.
known as CRISPR in 2012.
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ni kuwasili kifaa cha kuhakiki jeni
kilichoitwa CRISPR mwaka 2012.
kilichoitwa CRISPR mwaka 2012.
03:32
Many of you have probably
heard about CRISPR,
heard about CRISPR,
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wengi wenu pengine
mmesikia kuhusu CRISPR,
mmesikia kuhusu CRISPR,
03:34
so I'll just say briefly that CRISPR
is a tool that allows researchers
is a tool that allows researchers
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hivyo kwa kifupi hiyo CRISPR
ni kifaa kinachoruhusu watafiti
ni kifaa kinachoruhusu watafiti
03:38
to edit genes very precisely,
easily and quickly.
easily and quickly.
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kuhakiki jeni kwa uhakika,
kirahisi na haraka.
kirahisi na haraka.
03:41
It does this by harnessing a mechanism
that already existed in bacteria.
that already existed in bacteria.
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Inafanya hivi kwa kuunganisha utaratibu
ambao ulikuwepo ndani ya bakteria.
ambao ulikuwepo ndani ya bakteria.
03:45
Basically, there's a protein
that acts like a scissors
that acts like a scissors
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Kimsingi,kuna protini
ambayo hutumika kama mkasi
ambayo hutumika kama mkasi
03:47
and cuts the DNA,
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na kukata DNA,
03:49
and there's an RNA molecule
that directs the scissors
that directs the scissors
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na kuna molekuli ya RNA
ambayo huelekeza mkasi
ambayo huelekeza mkasi
03:51
to any point on the genome you want.
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upande wowote kwenye jenome.
03:53
The result is basically
a word processor for genes.
a word processor for genes.
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Matokeo kimsingi ni
uchakataji neno kwa ajili ya jeni.
uchakataji neno kwa ajili ya jeni.
03:56
You can take an entire gene
out, put one in,
out, put one in,
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Unaweza kutoa jeni yote
nje, na kuweka nyingine ndani,
nje, na kuweka nyingine ndani,
03:58
or even edit just a single
letter within a gene.
letter within a gene.
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au hata kuhakiki herufi moja
ndani ya jeni.
ndani ya jeni.
04:01
And you can do it in nearly any species.
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unaweza kufanya hivyo kwa spishi yoyote.
04:05
OK, remember how I said that gene drives
originally had two problems?
originally had two problems?
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OK, kumbuka nilivyosema ubadilishaji jeni
mwanzo ulikuwa na matatizo mawili?
mwanzo ulikuwa na matatizo mawili?
04:09
The first was that it was hard
to engineer a mosquito
to engineer a mosquito
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La kwanza ilikuwa ni vigumu
kutengeneza mbu
kutengeneza mbu
04:12
to be malaria-resistant.
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aweze kutostahimili malaria.
04:14
That's basically gone now,
thanks to CRISPR.
thanks to CRISPR.
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Hiyo imeondoka sasa,
shukrani kwa CRISPR.
shukrani kwa CRISPR.
04:17
But the other problem was logistical.
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Ila tatizo lingine ni la kiutaratibu.
04:19
How do you get your trait to spread?
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Unawezaje kufanya kibainisho kienee?
04:22
This is where it gets clever.
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Hapa ndipo panpoleta usumbufu.
04:24
A couple years ago, a biologist
at Harvard named Kevin Esvelt
at Harvard named Kevin Esvelt
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Miaka michache iliyopita, mwanabiolojia
wa Harvard Kevin Esvelt
wa Harvard Kevin Esvelt
04:28
wondered what would happen
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alifikiria itatokea nini
04:29
if you made it so that
CRISPR inserted not only your new gene
CRISPR inserted not only your new gene
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Ikiwa utaifanya ili kwamba
CRISPR iingizwe sio tu kwenye jeni mpya
CRISPR iingizwe sio tu kwenye jeni mpya
04:33
but also the machinery
that does the cutting and pasting.
that does the cutting and pasting.
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ila pia kwenye mashine
ambayo hukata na kubandika.
ambayo hukata na kubandika.
04:37
In other words, what if CRISPR
also copied and pasted itself.
also copied and pasted itself.
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Kwa maneno mengine itakuwaje CRISPR
ikijinakili na kujibandika yenyewe.
ikijinakili na kujibandika yenyewe.
04:42
You'd end up with a perpetual
motion machine for gene editing.
motion machine for gene editing.
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Utaishia kuwa na mashine inayozunguka
kuhakiki jeni.
kuhakiki jeni.
04:46
And that's exactly what happened.
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Na hicho ndicho kilichotokea
04:49
This CRISPR gene drive that Esvelt created
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Hii CRISPR ya ubadilishaji jeni iliyoundwa
na Esvelt
na Esvelt
04:51
not only guarantees
that a trait will get passed on,
that a trait will get passed on,
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sio tu inakuhakikishia kwamba
kibainisho kitarithishwa,
kibainisho kitarithishwa,
04:55
but if it's used in the germline cells,
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ikitumika kwenye seli za vijidudu
vinavyobadilika,
vinavyobadilika,
04:58
it will automatically copy and paste
your new gene
your new gene
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itanakili na kubandika moja kwa moja
jeni yako mpya
jeni yako mpya
05:00
into both chromosomes
of every single individual.
of every single individual.
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kuwa kromosomu zote
za kila kiumbe pekee.
za kila kiumbe pekee.
05:03
It's like a global search and replace,
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Ni kama utafutaji duniani na ubadilishaji,
05:06
or in science terms, it makes
a heterozygous trait homozygous.
a heterozygous trait homozygous.
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au kisayansi, hufanya
kibainisho heterezaigosi kuwa homozaigosi.
kibainisho heterezaigosi kuwa homozaigosi.
05:11
So, what does this mean?
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Hivyo, hii inamaanisha nini?
05:13
For one thing, it means we have
a very powerful,
a very powerful,
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kwa namna moja, inamaanisha
tuna chombo chenye nguvu sana,
tuna chombo chenye nguvu sana,
05:16
but also somewhat alarming new tool.
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lakini pia chombo kipya chakutia hofu.
05:20
Up until now, the fact that gene drives
didn't work very well
didn't work very well
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Hadi sasa, kwakuwa ubadilishaji jeni
haukufanya kazi vizuri
haukufanya kazi vizuri
05:23
was actually kind of a relief.
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ilikuwa na uahueni kidogo.
05:25
Normally when we mess around
with an organism's genes,
with an organism's genes,
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Kawaida tunapovuruga
jeni za viumbe,
jeni za viumbe,
05:28
we make that thing
less evolutionarily fit.
less evolutionarily fit.
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tunafanya kile kitu
kisifae kinadharia ya mageuko
kisifae kinadharia ya mageuko
05:30
So biologists can make
all the mutant fruit flies they want
all the mutant fruit flies they want
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wanabiolojia wanaweza kutengeneza
nzi wa matunda wanaotaka
nzi wa matunda wanaotaka
05:33
without worrying about it.
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bila kuhofia lolote
05:34
If some escape, natural selection
just takes care of them.
just takes care of them.
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kama baadhi watatoroka, uchaguzi asilia
utawashughulikia.
utawashughulikia.
05:38
What's remarkable and powerful
and frightening about gene drives
and frightening about gene drives
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Kinachosifika na chenye nguvu
na kutisha kuhusu ubadilishaji jeni
na kutisha kuhusu ubadilishaji jeni
05:41
is that that will no longer be true.
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ni kwamba haitakuwa tena kweli.
05:45
Assuming that your trait does not have
a big evolutionary handicap,
a big evolutionary handicap,
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Chukulia kibainisho chako hakina
ulemavu mkubwa wa nadharia ya mageuko,
ulemavu mkubwa wa nadharia ya mageuko,
05:48
like a mosquito that can't fly,
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kama vile mbu ambao hawawezi kuruka
05:50
the CRISPR-based gene drive
will spread the change relentlessly
will spread the change relentlessly
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CRISPR-yenye ubadilishaji jeni
itaeneza mabadiliko kwa kasi kubwa mno
itaeneza mabadiliko kwa kasi kubwa mno
05:54
until it is in every single individual
in the population.
in the population.
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hadi itakapokuwa ndani ya kila kitu
katika kundi tafiti.
katika kundi tafiti.
05:59
Now, it isn't easy to make
a gene drive that works that well,
a gene drive that works that well,
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Si rahisi kuunda ubadilishaji
jeni ufanye kazi vizuri hivyo,
jeni ufanye kazi vizuri hivyo,
06:02
but James and Esvelt think that we can.
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lakini James na Esvelt wanadhani tunaweza.
06:05
The good news is that this opens
the door to some remarkable things.
the door to some remarkable things.
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Habari njema ni kuwa hii inafungua
mlango kwa mambo yasiyo ya kawaida.
mlango kwa mambo yasiyo ya kawaida.
06:09
If you put an anti-malarial gene drive
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Ukitia ubadilishaji jeni usio na malaria
06:11
in just 1 percent of Anopheles mosquitoes,
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katika asilimia 1 ya mbu wa Anofelesi,
06:13
the species that transmits malaria,
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spishi inayoambukiza malaria,
06:15
researchers estimate that it would spread
to the entire population in a year.
to the entire population in a year.
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watafiti wanakadiria kwamba utaenea
kwa mbu wote kwa muda wa mwaka mmoja.
kwa mbu wote kwa muda wa mwaka mmoja.
06:20
So in a year, you could virtually
eliminate malaria.
eliminate malaria.
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Hivyo kwa mwaka, unaweza kukaribia
kuitokomeza malaria.
kuitokomeza malaria.
06:23
In practice, we're still a few years out
from being able to do that,
from being able to do that,
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Kiutendaji tupo bado miaka michache
kuweza kufanikisha hilo,
kuweza kufanikisha hilo,
06:27
but still, a 1,000 children
a day die of malaria.
a day die of malaria.
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lakini bado watoto 1,000
hufa kwa malaria kwa siku.
hufa kwa malaria kwa siku.
06:30
In a year, that number
could be almost zero.
could be almost zero.
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Kwa mwaka, namba hiyo
yaweza kukaribia sifuri.
yaweza kukaribia sifuri.
06:32
The same goes for dengue fever,
chikungunya, yellow fever.
chikungunya, yellow fever.
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hivyo pia kwa homa ya dengue,
chikungunya na homa ya manjano.
chikungunya na homa ya manjano.
06:37
And it gets better.
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Na inazidi kuwa bora.
06:39
Say you want to get rid
of an invasive species,
of an invasive species,
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Ikiwa unataka kuondoa
spishi zinazoenea kwa kasi,
spishi zinazoenea kwa kasi,
06:41
like get Asian carp
out of the Great Lakes.
out of the Great Lakes.
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kama Kamongo wa Asia
kwenye Maziwa Makuu.
kwenye Maziwa Makuu.
06:44
All you have to do is release a gene drive
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Unatakiwa kuachilia ubadilishaji jeni
06:46
that makes the fish produce
only male offspring.
only male offspring.
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ambao utafanya samaki wazaliane
madume tu.
madume tu.
06:49
In a few generations,
there'll be no females left, no more carp.
there'll be no females left, no more carp.
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kwa vizazi vijavyo
hakutakuwa na majike na kamongo wataisha.
hakutakuwa na majike na kamongo wataisha.
06:53
In theory, this means we could restore
hundreds of native species
hundreds of native species
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kinadharia, inamaanisha tunaweza rudisha
mamia ya spishi asilia
mamia ya spishi asilia
06:56
that have been pushed to the brink.
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zilikuwa zimesukumwa ukingoni.
06:59
OK, that's the good news,
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OK, hiyo ni habari njema,
07:02
this is the bad news.
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hii ni habari mbaya.
07:05
Gene drives are so effective
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Ubadilishaji jeni hufanyakazi kwa ufanisi
07:07
that even an accidental release
could change an entire species,
could change an entire species,
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hata ukiachiwa kwa bahati mbaya
unaweza kubadili spishi nzima,
unaweza kubadili spishi nzima,
07:10
and often very quickly.
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mara zote kwa haraka mno
07:13
Anthony James took good precautions.
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Anthony James alichukua tahadhari vizuri.
07:15
He bred his mosquitos
in a bio-containment lab
in a bio-containment lab
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Alizalisha mbu wake
kwenye maabara madhubuti
kwenye maabara madhubuti
07:17
and he also used a species
that's not native to the US
that's not native to the US
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na pia alitumia spishi
zisizo asilia kwa Marekani
zisizo asilia kwa Marekani
07:20
so that even if some did escape,
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ili hata baadhi zikiponyoka,
07:21
they'd just die off, there'd be nothing
for them to mate with.
for them to mate with.
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zitakufa tu, kutakuwa hakuna
spishi za kuzaliana nao.
spishi za kuzaliana nao.
07:24
But it's also true that if a dozen
Asian carp with the all-male gene drive
Asian carp with the all-male gene drive
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Lakini pia ni kweli ikiwa dazeni
ya Kamongo wa Asia wenye jeni za kiume tu
ya Kamongo wa Asia wenye jeni za kiume tu
07:28
accidentally got carried
from the Great Lakes back to Asia,
from the Great Lakes back to Asia,
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bahati mbaya wakachukuliwa
kutoka Maziwa Makuu na kurudishwa Asia,
kutoka Maziwa Makuu na kurudishwa Asia,
07:32
they could potentially wipe out
the native Asian carp population.
the native Asian carp population.
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wanaweza kufuta
idadi yote ya Kamongo wa Asia asilia.
idadi yote ya Kamongo wa Asia asilia.
07:37
And that's not so unlikely,
given how connected our world is.
given how connected our world is.
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Nahiyo inawezekana,
kwa jinsi dunia yetu ilivyounganika.
kwa jinsi dunia yetu ilivyounganika.
07:40
In fact, it's why we have
an invasive species problem.
an invasive species problem.
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ndio maana tuna
tatizo la spishi zinazoenea kwa kasi.
tatizo la spishi zinazoenea kwa kasi.
07:43
And that's fish.
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Na hiyo ni samaki.
07:45
Things like mosquitos and fruit flies,
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Vitu kama mbu na nzi wa matunda,
07:48
there's literally no way to contain them.
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Hakuna kabisa njia ya kuwadhibiti.
07:50
They cross borders
and oceans all the time.
and oceans all the time.
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Wanavuka mipaka
na bahari wakati wote.
na bahari wakati wote.
07:53
OK, the other piece of bad news
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OK, kipande kingine cha habari mbaya
07:55
is that a gene drive
might not stay confined
might not stay confined
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ubadilishaji jeni
hauwezi kufungwa sehemu moja
hauwezi kufungwa sehemu moja
07:58
to what we call the target species.
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kwa kile tunachokiita spishi lengwa.
08:00
That's because of gene flow,
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Husababishwa na kuhama kwa jeni
08:02
which is a fancy way of saying
that neighboring species
that neighboring species
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ambayo tunaweza kusema pia
ni spishi jirani
ni spishi jirani
08:04
sometimes interbreed.
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wakati mwingine huzaliana.
08:05
If that happens, it's possible
a gene drive could cross over,
a gene drive could cross over,
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kama itatokea,inawezekana
ubadilishaji jeni kwenda upande mwingine,
ubadilishaji jeni kwenda upande mwingine,
08:09
like Asian carp could infect
some other kind of carp.
some other kind of carp.
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kama Kamongo wa Asia wataambukiza
Kamongo wengine.
Kamongo wengine.
08:11
That's not so bad if your drive
just promotes a trait, like eye color.
just promotes a trait, like eye color.
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Si vibaya ubadilishaji wako
ukisaidia kibainisho kama rangi ya macho.
ukisaidia kibainisho kama rangi ya macho.
08:15
In fact, there's a decent
chance that we'll see
chance that we'll see
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Kwa kweli,kuna nafasi
kubwa kwa tutaona
kubwa kwa tutaona
08:17
a wave of very weird fruit flies
in the near future.
in the near future.
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wimbi la nzi wa matunda wasio kawaida
kwa siku zijazo
kwa siku zijazo
08:21
But it could be a disaster
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Lakini inaweza kuwa janga
08:22
if your drive is deigned
to eliminate the species entirely.
to eliminate the species entirely.
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Ikiwa ubadilishaji wake umetengenezwa
kutokomeza spishi yote.
kutokomeza spishi yote.
08:26
The last worrisome thing
is that the technology to do this,
is that the technology to do this,
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Kitu cha mwisho cha kutia hofu
ni kwamba teknolojia ya kufanya hivi,
ni kwamba teknolojia ya kufanya hivi,
08:29
to genetically engineer an organism
and include a gene drive,
and include a gene drive,
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kutengeneza viumbe kijenetiki
na kutumia ubadilishaji jeni,
na kutumia ubadilishaji jeni,
08:33
is something that basically any lab
in the world can do.
in the world can do.
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ni kitu ambacho maabara yoyote
duniani inaweza kufanya.
duniani inaweza kufanya.
08:36
An undergraduate can do it.
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Mhitimu wa chuo ataweza.
08:39
A talented high schooler
with some equipment can do it.
with some equipment can do it.
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Mwanafunzi wa sekondari mwenye kipaji
na vifaa anaweza kufanya.
na vifaa anaweza kufanya.
08:44
Now, I'm guessing
that this sounds terrifying.
that this sounds terrifying.
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Sasa naona kwamba
inaonekana inatisha sana.
inaonekana inatisha sana.
08:47
(Laughter)
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(Kicheko)
08:49
Interestingly though,
nearly every scientist I talk to
nearly every scientist I talk to
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Chakufurahisha,
karibia kila mwanasayansi ninayeongea naye
karibia kila mwanasayansi ninayeongea naye
08:52
seemed to think that gene drives were not
actually that frightening or dangerous.
actually that frightening or dangerous.
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anafikiria kwamba ubadilishaji jeni sio
wa kutisha au hatari kiasi hicho.
wa kutisha au hatari kiasi hicho.
08:56
Partly because they believe
that scientists will be
that scientists will be
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Upande mmoja kwasababu wanaamini
wanasayansi watakuwa
wanasayansi watakuwa
08:59
very cautious and responsible
about using them.
about using them.
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makini sana na kuwajibika
kuhusu kuzitumia.
kuhusu kuzitumia.
09:01
(Laughter)
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(Kicheko)
09:02
So far, that's been true.
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Kwa hapo, hilo ni kweli.
09:04
But gene drives also have
some actual limitations.
some actual limitations.
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Ila ubadilishaji jeni pia una
kikomo kilichopo.
kikomo kilichopo.
09:07
So for one thing, they work
only in sexually reproducing species.
only in sexually reproducing species.
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Kitu kimoja, unafanya kazi
kwa spishi zinazozaliana kwa kupandana.
kwa spishi zinazozaliana kwa kupandana.
09:10
So thank goodness, they can't be used
to engineer viruses or bacteria.
to engineer viruses or bacteria.
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Hivyo tushukuru, hauwezi kutumika
kutengeneza virusi au bakteria.
kutengeneza virusi au bakteria.
09:14
Also, the trait spreads
only with each successive generation.
only with each successive generation.
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Pia, vibainisho huenea
kwa kizazi kinachofuatia tu.
kwa kizazi kinachofuatia tu.
09:17
So changing or eliminating a population
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545370
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Kubadilisha au kutokomeza
kundi tafiti
kundi tafiti
09:19
is practical only if that species
has a fast reproductive cycle,
has a fast reproductive cycle,
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inawezekana tu ikiwa spishi hiyo
ina mzunguko wa haraka wa kuzaliana,
ina mzunguko wa haraka wa kuzaliana,
09:22
like insects or maybe
small vertebrates like mice or fish.
small vertebrates like mice or fish.
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kama wadudu au labda
wanyama wadogo kama panya au samaki.
wanyama wadogo kama panya au samaki.
09:26
In elephants or people,
it would take centuries
it would take centuries
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Kwa tembo au binadamu,
itachukua karne kadhaa
itachukua karne kadhaa
09:28
for a trait to spread
widely enough to matter.
widely enough to matter.
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kibainishi kuenea
kwa kiasi kikubwa kuleta maana.
kwa kiasi kikubwa kuleta maana.
09:32
Also, even with CRISPR, it's not that easy
to engineer a truly devastating trait.
to engineer a truly devastating trait.
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Pia hata kwa CRISPR, sio rahisi
kutengeneza kibainishi kiharibifu.
kutengeneza kibainishi kiharibifu.
09:38
Say you wanted to make a fruit fly
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Sema ulitaka kutengeneza nzi matunda
09:39
that feeds on ordinary fruit
instead of rotting fruit,
instead of rotting fruit,
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ambao hula matunda ya kawaida
badala ya kuyaozesha,
badala ya kuyaozesha,
09:42
with the aim of sabotaging
American agriculture.
American agriculture.
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kwa nia ya kuhujumu
kilimo cha Marekani.
kilimo cha Marekani.
09:45
First, you'd have to figure out
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Kwanza, unatakiwa ujue
09:46
which genes control
what the fly wants to eat,
what the fly wants to eat,
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ni jeni zipi zinaongoza
kitu gani nzi wanataka kula,
kitu gani nzi wanataka kula,
09:49
which is already a very long
and complicated project.
and complicated project.
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ambayo tayari ni mpango mrefu sana
na mgumu.
na mgumu.
09:52
Then you'd have to alter those genes
to change the fly's behavior
to change the fly's behavior
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Kisha urekebishe hizo jeni
kubadilisha tabia ya nzi
kubadilisha tabia ya nzi
09:55
to whatever you'd want it to be,
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kuwa chochote unachotaka kiwe
09:57
which is an even longer
and more complicated project.
and more complicated project.
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ambayo ni mpango mrefu zaidi
na mgumu zaidi.
na mgumu zaidi.
10:00
And it might not even work,
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Na inaweza isifanye kazi,
10:01
because the genes
that control behavior are complex.
that control behavior are complex.
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kwasababu jeni
zinazoongoza tabia ni changamani
zinazoongoza tabia ni changamani
10:04
So if you're a terrorist
and have to choose
and have to choose
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Kama wewe ni gaidi
na unatakiwa uchague
na unatakiwa uchague
10:06
between starting a grueling
basic research program
basic research program
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2358
kati ya kuanza
programu ya utafiti yenye kuchosha
programu ya utafiti yenye kuchosha
10:08
that will require years of meticulous
lab work and still might not pan out,
lab work and still might not pan out,
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itakayohitaji miaka mingi maabara
na bado isitokee vizuri,
na bado isitokee vizuri,
10:12
or just blowing stuff up?
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au ulipue tu vitu?
10:13
You'll probably choose the later.
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Pengine utachagua cha pili.
10:15
This is especially true
because at least in theory,
because at least in theory,
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Hii haswa ni kweli
kwasababu angalau kinadharia
kwasababu angalau kinadharia
10:17
it should be pretty easy
to build what's called a reversal drive.
to build what's called a reversal drive.
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inatakiwa iwe rahisi
kujenga ubadilishaji kinyume.
kujenga ubadilishaji kinyume.
10:21
That's one that basically overwrites
the change made by the first gene drive.
the change made by the first gene drive.
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Hii ndio ile inayofunika
mabadiliko ya ubadilishaji jeni wa kwanza
mabadiliko ya ubadilishaji jeni wa kwanza
10:24
So if you don't like
the effects of a change,
the effects of a change,
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Hivyo kama hupendi
athari za mabadiliko,
athari za mabadiliko,
10:27
you can just release a second drive
that will cancel it out,
that will cancel it out,
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unaweza kutoa tu ubadilishaji wapili
ambao utaifuta,
ambao utaifuta,
10:29
at least in theory.
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angalau kinadharia.
10:33
OK, so where does this leave us?
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OK,hii inatuacha wapi?
10:36
We now have the ability
to change entire species at will.
to change entire species at will.
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Sasa tunao uwezo
wa kubadilisha spishi yoyote kwa hiari.
wa kubadilisha spishi yoyote kwa hiari.
10:41
Should we?
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Tufanye hivyo?
10:42
Are we gods now?
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Tumekuwa miungu sasa?
10:45
I'm not sure I'd say that.
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Sijui kama ningesema hivyo.
10:48
But I would say this:
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Ila ningesema hivi:
10:50
first, some very smart people
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kwanza, baadhi ya watu wenye akili sana
10:52
are even now debating
how to regulate gene drives.
how to regulate gene drives.
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sasa hivi wanajadili
jinsi ya kudhibiti ubadilishaji jeni.
jinsi ya kudhibiti ubadilishaji jeni.
10:55
At the same time,
some other very smart people
some other very smart people
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Wakati huo huo
watu wengine wenye akili sana
watu wengine wenye akili sana
10:58
are working hard to create safeguards,
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wanafanyakazi kwa bidii kuunda uhifadhi,
11:00
like gene drives that self-regulate
or peter out after a few generations.
or peter out after a few generations.
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ikiwa uendeshaji jeni utajiendesha
au kupotea baada ya vizazi vichache.
au kupotea baada ya vizazi vichache.
11:04
That's great.
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Hivyo ni vizuri
11:06
But this technology still requires
a conversation.
a conversation.
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Lakini teknolojia hii bado inahitaji
mazungunzo.
mazungunzo.
11:10
And given the nature of gene drives,
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Kutokana ubadilishaji jeni ulivyo
11:11
that conversation has to be global.
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mazungumzo hayo yawe ya kimataifa.
11:14
What if Kenya wants to use a drive
but Tanzania doesn't?
but Tanzania doesn't?
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Itakuwaje Kenya ikitaka kutumia
ila Tanzania inakataa?
ila Tanzania inakataa?
11:17
Who decides whether to release
a gene drive that can fly?
a gene drive that can fly?
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Nani anayeamua iwe kuachia
ubadilishaji jeni utakaopaa?
ubadilishaji jeni utakaopaa?
11:22
I don't have the answer to that question.
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Sina majibu kwa swali hilo.
11:25
All we can do going forward, I think,
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2008
Tunachoweza kufanya mbeleni, nadhani,
11:27
is talk honestly
about the risks and benefits
about the risks and benefits
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ni kuongea kwa uwazi
kuhusu hatari na faida
kuhusu hatari na faida
11:30
and take responsibility for our choices.
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na kuwajibika kwa uchaguzi wetu.
11:33
By that I mean, not just the choice
to use a gene drive,
to use a gene drive,
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kwa hilo, namaanisha si uchaguzi tu
wa kutumia ubadilishaji jeni,
wa kutumia ubadilishaji jeni,
11:37
but also the choice not to use one.
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1999
bali pia uchaguzi wa kutotumia.
11:41
Humans have a tendency to assume
that the safest option
that the safest option
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Binadamu wanatabia ya kudhania
uchaguzi salama kuliko wote
uchaguzi salama kuliko wote
11:44
is to preserve the status quo.
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ni kutunza hali kama ilivyo.
11:46
But that's not always the case.
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Lakini haiko hivyo siku zote.
11:49
Gene drives have risks,
and those need to be discussed,
and those need to be discussed,
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Ubadilishaji jeni una hatari
na hizo zinahitaji kujadiliwa,
na hizo zinahitaji kujadiliwa,
11:53
but malaria exists now
and kills 1,000 people a day.
and kills 1,000 people a day.
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lakini malaria ipo sasa
na inaua watu 1,000 kila siku.
na inaua watu 1,000 kila siku.
11:56
To combat it, we spray pesticides
that do grave damage to other species,
that do grave damage to other species,
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kupambana nayo, tunapuliza dawa
ambazo huharibu spishi nyingine,
ambazo huharibu spishi nyingine,
12:00
including amphibians and birds.
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ikijumuisha amfibia na ndege.
12:03
So when you hear about gene drives
in the coming months,
in the coming months,
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Hivyo utakaposikia ubadilishaji jeni
miezi inayokuja,
miezi inayokuja,
12:06
and trust me, you will
be hearing about them,
be hearing about them,
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na niamini utasikia habari zake
ila kutofanya kitu
ni mbaya zaidi.
ni mbaya zaidi.
12:08
remember that.
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kumbuka kwamba.
12:10
It can be frightening to act,
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718402
2020
inaweza kutia hofu kuchukua hatua,
12:12
but sometimes, not acting is worse.
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12:16
(Applause)
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(Makofi)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jennifer Kahn - Science journalistIn articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources.
Why you should listen
Jennifer Kahn likes to seek out complex stories, with the goal of illuminating their nuances. She teaches in the magazine program at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, and is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine; she has written features and cover stories for The New Yorker, National Geographic, Outside, Wired and many more.
Her work has appeared in the Best American Science Writing anthology series four times, most recently for the New Yorker story “A Cloud of Smoke,” a story on the complicated death of a policeman after 9/11.
Jennifer Kahn | Speaker | TED.com