ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999.

Why you should listen

Jeff Bezos didn't invent online shopping, but he almost single-handedly turned it into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His Amazon.com began as a bookstore in 1994, and quickly expanded into dozens of product categories, forcing the world's biggest retailers to rethink their business models, and ultimately changing the way people shop.

But Amazon.com isn't just an internet success story. It's the standard by which all web businesses are now judged -- if not by their shareholders, then by their customers. Amazon set a high bar for reliability and customer service, and also introduced a wide range of online retail conventions -- from user reviews and one-click shopping to the tab interface and shopping cart icon -- so commonplace we no longer think of them as once having been innovations.

When the Internet bubble burst, Amazon.com took a hit with the other e-commerce pioneers, but the fundamentally sound company hung tough. It now sells more than $10 billion a year of goods, profitably, and its technology will influence the changes to business and media that will come next. Amazon recently released Kindle, a wireless digital reading device, giving the term "page turning" a completely new definition. Bezos, meanwhile, is one of the few early Web CEOs who still run the companies they founded. Outside of his work with Amazon, he recently founded Blue Origin, a space-flight startup.

More profile about the speaker
Jeff Bezos | Speaker | TED.com
TED2003

Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor for the web's future

Jeff Bezos:未来的网络创新

Filmed:
1,547,891 views

网络产业的兴衰常被比作淘金热。但是亚马逊公司(Amazon.com)的创始人Jeff Bezos则认为它更像是电气制造工业的早期。
- Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:26
When you think about resilience弹性 and technology技术 it's actually其实 much easier更轻松.
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把弹性和技术放在一起考虑,是非常容易的
00:29
You're going to see some other speakers音箱 today今天, I already已经 know,
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我知道大家会见到其他一些演讲者
00:32
who are going to talk about breaking-bones断筋骨 stuff东东,
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他们会讨论骨折
00:35
and, of course课程, with technology技术 it never is.
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当然,在技术领域,永远不会。
00:37
So it's very easy简单, comparatively比较 speaking请讲, to be resilient弹性.
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相对而言,技术很容易适应
00:41
I think that, if we look at what happened发生 on the Internet互联网,
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如果我们看一看在过去的六年里
00:43
with such这样 an incredible难以置信 last half a dozen years年份,
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因特网上所发生的不可思议的一切,
00:47
that it's hard to even get the right analogy比喻 for it.
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那就会觉得 哪怕是给这一切找个简单恰当的类比也是很难的。
00:50
A lot of how we decide决定, how we're supposed应该 to react应对 to things
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很多时候,我们如何做决定,如何对事物做反应
00:54
and what we're supposed应该 to expect期望 about the future未来
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如何展望未来
00:56
depends依靠 on how we bucket things
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都决定于我们储存事物的方式
00:58
and how we categorize分类 them.
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以及事物的分类方法
00:59
And so I think the tempting诱人的 analogy比喻 for the boom-bust盛极而衰
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因此,我认为如果可以找一个形象的比喻来描述刚刚经历的网络泡沫
01:03
that we just went through通过 with the Internet互联网 is a gold rush.
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“淘金热”是首选
01:07
It's easy简单 to think of this analogy比喻 as very different不同
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这个类比很容易理解
01:10
from some of the other things you might威力 pick.
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其他的比喻就显得没有这么形象
01:12
For one thing, both were very real真实.
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首先,网络泡沫和淘金热都是真实发生过的
01:14
In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million百万
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在1849年的淘金潮中,人们从加州淘到价值7亿美元的黄金
01:18
worth价值 of gold out of California加州. It was very real真实.
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这可是千真万确的
01:20
The Internet互联网 was also very real真实. This is a real真实 way for humans人类 to
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同时互联网也是完全真实的
01:24
communicate通信 with each other. It's a big deal合同.
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它提供了一条真正的供人们进行交流的途径,这很了不起
01:27
Huge巨大 boom繁荣. Huge巨大 boom繁荣. Huge巨大 bust胸围. Huge巨大 bust胸围.
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巨大的繁荣,巨大的繁荣,急剧的衰败,急剧的衰败
01:31
You keep going, and both things are lots of hype炒作.
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接着想,二者都伴有大量夸张的宣传
01:34
I don't have to remind提醒 you of all the hype炒作
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不用我说,大家都还记得那些有关网络的炒作吧
01:37
that was involved参与 with the Internet互联网 -- like GetRich致富.comCOM.
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比如GetRich.com (1999年9月时代周刊以GetRich.com为题,以长达20页的封面故事描绘网络诱人前景)
01:40
But you had the same相同 thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."
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我们再回头看淘金热,简直是一样的情况。 “金子,金子,金子”
01:43
Sixty-eight六十八个 rich丰富 men男人 on the Steamer汽船 Portland波特兰. Stacks堆栈 of yellow黄色 metal金属.
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在波特兰号蒸汽船上的68个暴发户,成堆的黄金!
01:47
Some have 5,000. Many许多 have more.
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有的人有五千,其他人拥有的更多
01:50
A few少数 bring带来 out 100,000 dollars美元 each.
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少数一些人就能淘到10万美元
01:54
People would get very excited兴奋 about this when they read these articles用品.
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人们读到这样的文章就会变得非常兴奋
01:57
"The Eldorado埃尔多拉多 of the United联合的 States状态 of America美国:
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美利坚合众国之黄金城
02:00
the discovery发现 of inexhaustible取之不尽,用之不竭 gold mines矿山 in California加州."
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加州发现取之不尽的金矿
02:06
And the parallels相似之处 between之间 the Gold Rush and the Internet互联网 Rush continue继续 very strongly非常.
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淘金热和网络热的相似之处仍然非常明显
02:10
So many许多 people left what they were doing.
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很人就抛下自己的工作不做了
02:13
And what would happen发生 is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years年份.
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后来淘金热就这样持续了好多年
02:16
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started开始 to get the news新闻,
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东海岸的人,在1849年,当他们刚开始听说这事的时候
02:20
they thought, "Ah, this isn't real真实."
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都寻思着,“不是真的吧。”
02:22
But they keep hearing听力 about people getting得到 rich丰富,
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可他们不断地听说有人暴富了
02:25
and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real真实.
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直到1850年仍然有这种消息传来,可他们还不信
02:28
By about 1852, they're thinking思维, "Am I the stupidest愚蠢的 person on Earth地球
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到差不多1852年,他们就觉得,“我是不是世上最傻的人,
02:33
by not rushing to California加州?" And they start开始 to decide决定 they are.
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怎么没早点儿冲到加州去呢?” 开始觉得自己真是晚了
02:37
These are community社区 affairs事务, by the way.
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当然,这些其实是地区性的事务
02:39
Local本地 communities社区 on the East Coast would get together一起 and whole整个 teams球队
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于是,东海岸当地的社区团体联合到一起
02:42
of 10, 20 people would caravan大篷车 across横过 the United联合的 States状态,
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组织10到20人的商队横跨美国
02:45
and they would form形成 companies公司.
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并且,他们会组建公司(去淘金)
02:47
These were typically一般 not solitary efforts努力. But no matter what,
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这些人显然依靠的不是个人力量
02:50
if you were a lawyer律师 or a banker银行家, people dropped下降 what they were doing,
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但不论是律师或银行家,他们丢下自己的工作
02:53
no matter what skill技能 set they had, to go pan for gold.
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不管他们有什么技能,都跑去淘金子
02:57
This guy on the left, Dr博士. Richard理查德 Beverley贝弗利 Cole油菜,
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左边的这个人,Richard Beverley Cole医生
03:00
he lived生活 in Philadelphia费城 and he took the Panama巴拿马 route路线.
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他住在费城,他走的是巴拿马航线
03:03
They would take a ship down to Panama巴拿马, across横过 the isthmus地峡,
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他们乘船直下到达巴拿马,跨过巴拿马地峡
03:06
and then take another另一个 ship north.
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然后换乘另一只船北上
03:08
This guy, Dr博士. Toland降落, went by covered覆盖 wagon车皮 to California加州.
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这个Toland医生是乘带篷的大马车去的加州
03:13
This has its parallels相似之处, too. Doctors医生 leaving离开 their practices做法.
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他们俩也有相似之处,都是医生,并放弃了从医
03:17
These are both very successful成功 -- a physician医师 in one case案件,
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他们俩都很成功(医术高明),一个在内科方面
03:19
a surgeon外科医生 in the other.
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一个在外科方面
03:20
Same相同 thing happened发生 on the Internet互联网. You get DrKoopDrKoop.comCOM.
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我们看网络上也有这样的例子,出了个 DrKoop.com 网站
03:24
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)(由Koop医生成立于1997年的医疗健康网站DrKoop.com在网络泡沫时曾一度辉煌,后破产转手)
03:25
In the Gold Rush, people literally按照字面 jumped跳下 ship.
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淘金热中,人们夸张得从船上跳下来
03:28
The San Francisco弗朗西斯科 harbor港口 was clogged堵塞 with 600 ships船舶 at the peak
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在旧金山的港口,最多的时候聚集了600艘船
03:35
because the ships船舶 would get there and the crews船员 would abandon放弃
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因为当船到了那里,船员们都不顾一切的跳下船
03:37
to go search搜索 for gold.
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的去淘金了
03:39
So there were literally按照字面 600 captains船长 and 600 ships船舶.
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那里当时真的就只剩600个船长和600艘船
03:43
They turned转身 the ships船舶 into hotels酒店, because they couldn't不能 sail them anywhere随地.
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后来那些船都变成了宾馆,因为没有船员,这些船哪里也去不了
03:46
You had dotcom网络公司 fever发热. And you had gold fever发热.
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如果,我们把投身网络公司的热情,和曾经有过的淘金热相比较
03:51
And you saw some of the excesses过激
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你就能发现这一切有点过头了
03:53
that the dotcom网络公司 fever发热 created创建 and the same相同 thing happened发生.
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当互联网热发起时,同样的事情发生了
03:57
The fort in San Francisco弗朗西斯科 at the time had about 1,300 soldiers士兵.
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旧金山的兵营有1300士兵
04:01
Half of them deserted废弃的 to go look for gold.
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一半人擅离职守去淘金了
04:05
And they wouldn't不会 let the other half out to go look for the first half
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上级不敢让剩下的一半人去找他们
04:08
because they were afraid害怕 they wouldn't不会 come back.
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因为担心这些士兵也会一去不返
04:10
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:12
And one of the soldiers士兵 wrote home, and this is the sentence句子 that he put:
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其中一个士兵在家信中这样写道:
04:15
"The struggle斗争 between之间 right and six dollars美元 a month
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我在这样的矛盾中挣扎,一边是去做正确的事情,每月6美元
04:19
and wrong错误 and 75 dollars美元 a day is a rather severe严重 one."
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另一边是做逃兵,每天75美元
04:27
They had bad burn烧伤 rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn烧伤 rate.
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淘金热的消耗非常严重,非常严重。
04:31
This is actually其实 from the Klondike克朗代克 Gold Rush. This is the White白色 Pass通过 Trail落后.
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这是来自淘金热门地区Klondike的一张图片,上面的路被称之为“白通径”
04:35
They loaded up their mules骡子 and their horses马匹.
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人们把他们的骡子和马装好
04:39
And they didn't plan计划 right.
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但他们没有计划好
04:43
And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,
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他们不知道他们要走多远
04:46
and they overloaded超载 the horses马匹 with hundreds数以百计 and hundreds数以百计 of pounds英镑 of stuff东东.
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他们给骡子和马装了太多的东西
04:50
In fact事实 it was so bad that most of the horses马匹 died死亡
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结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中
04:54
before they could get where they were going.
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结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中
04:56
It got renamed改名 the "Dead Horse Trail落后."
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那条路后来被称为“亡马之路”
04:58
And the Canadian加拿大 Minister部长 of the Interior室内 wrote this at the time:
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加拿大内政部长这样写道:
05:02
"Thousands成千上万 of pack horses马匹 lie谎言 dead along沿 the way,
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路的两边躺满了马的尸体
05:05
sometimes有时 in bunches under the cliffs悬崖,
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在悬崖下也有遍地的尸首
05:07
with pack saddles马鞍 and packs where they've他们已经 fallen堕落 from the rock above以上,
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上面甚至还有马鞍和这些马坠崖前所驮的杂物
05:11
sometimes有时 in tangled masses群众, filling填充 the mud holes
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有时,在杂乱的人群中,这些马就在那些泥洞里寻找落脚点
05:14
and furnishing家具 the only footing立足点 for our poor较差的 pack animals动物 on the march游行,
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在遥远的行程中背负着大量的货物
05:17
often经常, I regret后悔 to say, exhausted, but still alive,
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很多时候,我不得不说,太累了,但是要活下去
05:21
a fact事实 we were unaware不知道 of, until直到 after the miserable wretches坏蛋
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一个被我们忽略的事实就是,在骡马队伍之中
05:24
turned转身 beneath下面 the hooves of our cavalcade行列.
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有着那么多的悲惨的人
05:27
The eyeless盲目的 sockets插座 of the pack animals动物 everywhere到处
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遍地都是背负重担的动物,它们露出空洞的眼神
05:29
account帐户 for the myriads无数 of ravens乌鸦 along沿 the road.
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无数的乌鸦遍布路的两边
05:32
The inhumanity不人道 which哪一个 this trail落后 has been witness见证 to,
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这条路见证的不人道
05:34
the heartbreak心碎 and suffering痛苦 which哪一个 so many许多 have undergone经历,
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那些心碎和痛苦的经历,是难以想象的
05:37
cannot不能 be imagined想象. They certainly当然 cannot不能 be described描述."
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更是难以用文字描述的
05:42
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied伴随着 that,
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虽然没有那些与之俱来的气味
05:47
we had the same相同 thing on the Internet互联网: very bad burn烧伤 rate calculations计算.
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但是互联网上发生着同样的事情:极坏的亏损额计算
05:52
I'll just play one of these and you'll你会 remember记得 it.
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我给大家计算其中的一个,你们就会发现我所说的是对的
05:55
This is a commercial广告 that was played发挥 on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
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这是一个在2000年超级杯赛上被播放的商业广告
05:59
(Video视频): Bride新娘 #1: You said you had a large selection选择 of invitations邀请函. Clerk书记: But we do.
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(视频)一号新娘:你说你有很多可选择的邀请。职员:的确是这样的
06:03
Bride新娘 #2: Then why does she have my invitation请帖?
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二号新娘:那为什么她会有我的邀请函?
06:06
Announcer播音员: What may可能 be a little thing to some ... Bride新娘 #3: You are mine, little man.
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讲解:一些小事将会导致什么...三号新娘:你给我过来,混蛋!
06:11
Announcer播音员: Could be a really big deal合同 to you. Husband丈夫 #1: Is that your wife妻子?
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讲解:对你来说可能很重要。一号丈夫:那是你妻子吗?
06:15
Husband丈夫 #2: Not for another另一个 15 minutes分钟. Announcer播音员: After all, it's your special特别 day.
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二号丈夫:15分钟后就是了。讲解:毕竟,这是你的好日子
06:23
OurBeginningOurBeginning.comCOM. Life's人生 an event事件. Announce宣布 it to the world世界.
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OurBeginning.com网站,生活是件大事,把它向全世界公布
06:26
Jeff杰夫 Bezos贝佐斯: It's very difficult to figure数字 out what that ad广告 is for.
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很难指出这个广告的目的
06:30
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:33
But they spent花费 three and a half million百万 dollars美元
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但是,这家公司花费了350万美元
06:35
in the 2000 Super Bowl to air空气 that ad广告,
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在2000年的超级杯上播出这个广告
06:38
even though虽然, at the time, they only had a million百万 dollars美元 in annual全年 revenue收入.
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即便是,在当时,该公司每年的收入只有100万美元
06:44
Now, here's这里的 where our analogy比喻 with the Gold Rush starts启动 to diverge偏离,
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从这件事情上看,我们把互联网热和淘金热的类比就产生了分歧
06:48
and I think rather severely严重.
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而且分歧还很严重
06:50
And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.
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在淘金热中,当它结束的时候,一切都结束了
06:54
Here's这里的 this guy: "There are many许多 men男人 in Dawson道森
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这里有一个家伙写道:“在道森,当时
06:57
at the present当下 time who feel keenly敏锐地 disappointed失望.
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有很多人深感失望。
06:59
They've他们已经 come thousands数千 of miles英里 on a perilous trip, risked冒险 life, health健康 and property属性,
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他们行程数千里,历经万险,冒着生命危险,不顾健康和财富
07:04
spent花费 months个月 of the most arduous艰巨 labor劳动 a man can perform演出
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花费了一个人所能忍受的数个月的时间
07:07
and at length长度 with expectations期望 raised上调 to the highest最高 pitch沥青
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整个过程中,他们心里一直抱着那个美好的期望
07:10
have reached到达 the coveted令人垂涎 goal目标 only to discover发现
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但是,等他们真正到达的时候
07:12
the fact事实 that there is nothing here for them."
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却发现什么也没有。”
07:16
And that was, of course课程, the very common共同 story故事.
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当然,这只是一个很普通的故事
07:19
Because when you take out that last piece of gold --
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因为,当你把最后一块黄金采掘出来的时候
07:21
and they did incredibly令人难以置信 quickly很快. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --
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这个过程是非常短暂的。我的意思是,如果你回顾1849年的淘金热——
07:26
the entire整个 American美国 river region地区, within two years年份 --
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整个美洲地区的河流,在不到两年的时间里——
07:29
every一切 stone had been turned转身. And after that, only big companies公司
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人们翻遍了每一块石头。这样之后,只有那些大型的公司
07:33
who used more sophisticated复杂的 mining矿业 technologies技术
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用先进的开采技术
07:35
started开始 to take gold out of there.
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在那里进行黄金的开采
07:38
So there's a much better analogy比喻 that allows允许 you to be incredibly令人难以置信 optimistic乐观
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另外,还有一个好一点的类比,会让你感觉很乐观
07:44
and that analogy比喻 is the electric电动 industry行业.
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那就是电气制造工业
07:49
And there are a lot of similarities相似之处 between之间 the Internet互联网 and the electric电动 industry行业.
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电气制造工业和互联网有很多的相似之处
07:53
With the electric电动 industry行业 you actually其实 have to --
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电气制造工业涉及的范围很广
07:56
one of them is that they're both sort分类 of thin,
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——当然,它和互联网一样,根基都不是很深
07:58
horizontal, enabling启用 layers that go across横过 lots of different不同 industries行业.
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但是,它所涉及的不同的产业是很多的
08:01
It's not a specific具体 thing.
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这不是一个具体的事情
08:05
But electricity电力 is also very, very broad广阔, so you have to sort分类 of narrow狭窄 it down.
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但是电力的使用范围很广阔,因此你必须把它缩小了排序
08:10
You know, it can be used as an incredible难以置信 means手段 of transmitting发射 power功率.
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它可以作为一种极佳的传输能量的方法
08:14
It's an incredible难以置信 means手段 of coordinating协调,
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甚至可以促进合作
08:16
in a very fine-grained细粒度 way, information信息 flows流动.
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以一种非常精细的方式,包括信息流
08:18
There's a bunch of things that are interesting有趣 about electricity电力.
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关于电力,有一大堆的趣事
08:21
And the part部分 of the electric电动 revolution革命 that I want to focus焦点 on
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我所关注的电力革命
08:26
is sort分类 of the golden金色 age年龄 of appliances家电.
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只是那些“黄金时代”中的器械装置
08:29
The killer凶手 app应用 that got the world世界 ready准备 for appliances家电 was the light bulb灯泡.
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让整个世界为之一震的、最为显著的器械就是电灯泡了
08:34
So the light bulb灯泡 is what wired有线 the world世界.
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把世界用电线连接起来的就是电灯泡
08:36
And they weren't thinking思维 about appliances家电 when they wired有线 the world世界.
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当人们架接电线的时候,他们没有想到其他的用电器
08:40
They were really thinking思维 about --
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在当时,人们关注的只是——
08:42
they weren't putting electricity电力 into the home;
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人们不认为是把电线扯到家里(没有把电力引进自己家中)
08:44
they were putting lighting灯光 into the home.
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而是把照明装置安到家中
08:47
And, but it really -- it got the electricity电力. It took a long time.
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人们的确得到并使用了电力——但这花费了很长时间
08:51
This was a huge巨大 -- as you would expect期望 -- a huge巨大 capital首都 build建立 out.
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中间花费了——正如你所期望的——巨大的资本去构建这个供电网络
08:55
All the streets街道 had to be torn撕裂 up.
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所有的街道被重新休整了一番
08:58
This is work going on down in lower降低 Manhattan曼哈顿
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这幅图片显示的是在下曼哈顿
09:02
where they built内置 some of the first electric电动 power功率 generating发电 stations.
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施工人员正在建设第一座发电站
09:06
And they're tearing撕裂 up all the streets街道.
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他们挖开所有的街道
09:08
The Edison爱迪生 Electric电动 Company公司, which哪一个 became成为 Edison爱迪生 General一般 Electric电动,
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爱迪生电气公司,后来更名为爱迪生通用电气公司
09:11
which哪一个 became成为 General一般 Electric电动,
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后来成为现在的通用电气
09:13
paid支付 for all of this digging挖掘 up of the streets街道. It was incredibly令人难以置信 expensive昂贵.
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出资进行道路的挖掘,这是非常昂贵的
09:19
But that is not the -- and that's not the part部分 that's really most similar类似 to the Web卷筒纸.
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但,这还不是和网络最相似的地方
09:26
Because, remember记得, the Web卷筒纸 got to stand
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因为,网络是基于
09:28
on top最佳 of all this heavy infrastructure基础设施
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所有的那些大型的基础设施之上的
09:30
that had been put in place地点 because of the long-distance远距离 phone电话 network网络.
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而当时这些基础设施主要服务于长距离的电话网络
09:33
So all of the cabling布线 and all of the heavy infrastructure基础设施 --
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因此,所有的电缆和那些重型的基础设施——
09:36
I'm going back now to, sort分类 of, the explosive爆炸物 part部分 of the Web卷筒纸 in 1994,
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我刚刚讲的,就是1994年网络爆炸式发展中的一部分
09:40
when it was growing生长 2,300 percent百分 a year.
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其年增长率一度达到2300%
09:42
How could it grow增长 at 2,300 percent百分 a year in 1994
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在1994年,网络产业是怎么做到一年增长2300%,
09:45
when people weren't really investing投资 in the Web卷筒纸?
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并且没有外部的投资?
09:48
Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure基础设施 had already已经 been laid铺设 down.
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其实,就是因为这些重型、大型的基础设施早已经铺设好了
09:52
So the light bulb灯泡 laid铺设 down the heavy infrastructure基础设施,
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电灯的普及导致了重型设备的投入
09:55
and then home appliances家电 started开始 coming未来 into being存在.
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在此基础上家用电器开始遍地生花
09:58
And this was huge巨大. The first one was the electric电动 fan风扇 --
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当然,这个数量(家用电器)非常庞大的。第一件家用电器是电风扇——
10:01
this was the 1890 electric电动 fan风扇.
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这个照片就是1890年发明的电风扇
10:04
And the appliances家电, the golden金色 age年龄 of appliances家电 really lasted历时 --
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这些设备,这些设备、器械的繁荣时期持续了——
10:08
it depends依靠 how you want to measure测量 it --
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当然这取决于你怎么衡量它——
10:10
but it's anywhere随地 from 40 to 60 years年份. It goes on a long time.
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大约有40到60年的样子。这是一段很长的时期
10:13
It starts启动 about 1890. And the electric电动 fan风扇 was a big success成功.
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大约开始于1890年,并且电风扇是一个巨大的成功
10:19
The electric电动 iron, also very big.
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电熨斗,也非常成功
10:22
By the way, this is the beginning开始 of the asbestos石棉 lawsuit诉讼.
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顺便说一下,这也是有关石棉诉讼的开端(石棉可用作保温隔热材料)
10:26
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:27
There's asbestos石棉 under that handle处理 there.
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在那个把手下有石棉物质
10:32
This is the first vacuum真空 cleaner清洁器, the 1905 Skinner斯金纳 Vacuum真空,
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这是第一台吸尘器,1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器
10:35
from the Hoover胡佛 Company公司. And this one weighed称重 92 pounds英镑
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它是Hoover公司制造的,重达92磅
10:40
and took two people to operate操作 and cost成本 a quarter25美分硬币 of a car汽车.
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需要两个人进行操作,并且其造价达到了一辆汽车的四分之一
10:45
So it wasn't a big seller卖家.
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所以,它卖的不是很好
10:47
This was truly, truly an early-adopter早期采用者 product产品 --
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这是最早的采纳产品
10:51
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:52
the 1905 Skinner斯金纳 Vacuum真空.
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1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器
10:54
But three years年份 later后来, by 1908, it weighed称重 40 pounds英镑.
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仅仅三年后,也就是1908年,它的重量就缩减到了40磅
10:59
Now, not all these things were highly高度 successful成功.
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并不是所有的事情都是那么成功
11:03
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:05
This is the electric电动 tie领带 press, which哪一个 never really did catch抓住 on.
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这是一个电力领带熨平器,它就没有流行起来
11:08
People, I guess猜测, decided决定 that they would not wrinkle皱纹 their ties联系.
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我猜,人们都不会把他们的领带弄皱
11:15
These never really caught抓住 on either:
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下面的这些也没有流行起来:
11:17
the electric电动 shoe warmer回暖 and drier干燥剂. Never a big seller卖家.
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鞋子专用的电动加热干燥器,销量很差
11:21
This came来了 in, like, six different不同 colors颜色.
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它看起来有六种不同的颜色
11:23
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:25
I don't know why. But I thought, you know,
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我不知道这是为什么,但是,你们可能会这样认为
11:28
sometimes有时 it's just not the right time for an invention发明;
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并不是任何时候都适合进行一些发明创造
11:32
maybe it's time to give this one another另一个 shot射击.
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也许,现在是重新启动这项发明的最佳时间
11:35
So I thought we could build建立 a Super Bowl ad广告 for this.
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因此,我们可以就此推出一个广告,将其在超级杯上播放
11:39
We'd星期三 need the right partner伙伴. And I thought that really --
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我们需要合适的合作伙伴,而且我觉得——
11:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:45
I thought that would really work, to give that another另一个 shot射击.
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我觉得这样一定可行,值得重新尝试一下
11:49
Now, the toaster烤面包机 was huge巨大
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电烤箱曾经是个庞然大物
11:51
because they used to make toast烤面包 on open打开 fires火灾,
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因为人们通常在野外做烤面包
11:54
and it took a lot of time and attention注意.
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这需要很多的时间和精力
11:56
I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.
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我想指出的是,这个,大家应该知道这是什么东西
12:02
They hadn't有没有 invented发明 the electric电动 socket插座 yet然而.
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那个时候人们尚未发明电插座
12:05
So this was -- remember记得, they didn't wire线 the houses房屋 for electricity电力.
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还记得吗,当时人们不是为了使用电力而拉电线
12:08
They wired有线 them for lighting灯光. So your -- your appliances家电 would plug插头 in.
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他们是为了照明。因此,你可以把你的用电器插到上面
12:12
They would -- each room房间 typically一般 had a light bulb灯泡 socket插座 at the top最佳.
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人们在每一间屋子的天花板上都会装一个灯泡插座
12:15
And you'd plug插头 it in there.
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这样你就可以把灯泡插在上面了
12:17
In fact事实, if you've seen看到 the Carousel圆盘传送带 of Progress进展 at Disney迪士尼 World世界,
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如果你没有见到过迪斯尼乐园的旋转木马
12:20
you've seen看到 this. Here are the cables电缆 coming未来 up into this light fixture夹具.
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你一定看到过这个。这些是连接灯具的电线
12:24
All the appliances家电 plug插头 in there. And you would just unscrew拔螺丝 your light bulb灯泡
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所有的用电器都装在上面。你需要做的就是将你的灯泡拧下来
12:28
if you wanted to plug插头 in an appliance器具.
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这样你就可以使用其他的用电器了
12:30
The next下一个 thing that really was a big, big deal合同 was the washing洗涤 machine.
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洗衣机是接下来的非常成功的另一个例子
12:35
Now, this was an object目的 of much envy羡慕 and lust情欲.
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这是一个充满嫉妒和欲望对象
12:38
Everybody每个人 wanted one of these electric电动 washing洗涤 machines.
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每个人都想得到一台电动洗衣机
12:41
On the left-hand左手 side, this was the soapy肥皂水 water.
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左边的那个桶装的是肥皂水
12:43
And there's a rotor转子 there -- that this motor发动机 is spinning纺织.
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那里有一个转子,是一个旋转式马达
12:45
And it would clean清洁 your clothes衣服.
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它会清洁你的衣服
12:47
This is the clean清洁 rinse-water冲洗水. So you'd take the clothes衣服 out of here,
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这是漂洗用的干净的水。从这里你可以把衣服拿出来
12:50
put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes衣服 through通过 this electric电动 ringer铃声.
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放在这里,然后把衣服通过这个电圈
12:54
And this was a big deal合同.
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这是一台很了不起的电器
12:56
You'd keep this on your porch门廊. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain疼痛.
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你会把它放在你的门廊上,因为它有点脏,并且有点烦人
13:00
And you'd run a long cord into the house
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你不得不扯一条很长的电线到你的房子里
13:03
where you could screw it into your light socket插座.
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这样你才能把它连在灯座上
13:06
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:07
And that's actually其实 kind of an important重要 point in my presentation介绍,
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而这实际上是我的介绍中很重要的一点
13:10
because they hadn't有没有 invented发明 the off switch开关.
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因为人们当时还没有发明开关
13:14
That was to come much later后来 -- the off switch开关 on appliances家电 --
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而电器上开关的发明时间比这个还要晚
13:17
because it didn't make any sense.
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因为人们觉得这没有什么意义
13:19
I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging堵塞 up a light socket插座.
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我的意思是说,人们不希望有什么东西把灯泡底座堵住
13:22
So you know, when you were doneDONE with it, you unscrewed拧开 it.
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当人们不想使用灯泡的时候,就会把它拧松一些
13:25
That's what you did. You didn't turn it off.
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这就是人们当时所做的,实际上并没有关掉它
13:27
And as I said before, they hadn't有没有 invented发明 the electric电动 outlet出口 either,
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正如我之前所讲,人们并没有去发明电插座
13:31
so the washing洗涤 machine was a particularly尤其 dangerous危险 device设备.
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因此,洗衣机是一台很危险的设备
13:34
And there are --
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实际上
13:36
when you research研究 this, there are gruesome阴森 descriptions说明
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当你研究这些事情的时候,你会找到一些恐怖的描述
13:39
of people getting得到 their hair头发 and clothes衣服 caught抓住 in these devices设备.
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比如说人们会不小心把头发和衣服搅在一起
13:44
And they couldn't不能 yank猛拉 the cord out
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而且你还不能立马将电源断掉
13:46
because it was screwed into a light socket插座 inside the house.
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因为电源插头被紧紧拧在了屋里的灯泡插座上
13:50
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:51
And there was no off switch开关, so it wasn't very good.
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并且洗衣机上也没有开关,这样一点儿也不好
13:56
And you might威力 think that that was incredibly令人难以置信 stupid of our ancestors祖先
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你也许会想我们的先人们真是不一般的傻
14:00
to be plugging堵漏 things into a light socket插座 like this.
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竟然会把用电器像这样插到灯泡插座上
14:03
But, you know, before I get too far into condemning谴责 our ancestors祖先,
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但,在我过多讨论谴责我们先人之前
14:07
I thought I'd show显示 you: this is my conference会议 room房间.
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我觉得我要先给大家展示一下:这是我的会议室
14:10
This is a total kludge组装机, if you ask me.
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这绝对是一台杂牌组装电脑
14:13
First of all, this got installed安装 upside上边 down. This light socket插座 --
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首先,它组装的乱七八糟。这个电灯插座——
14:16
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:17
and so the cord keeps保持 falling落下 out, so I taped录音 it in.
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电线总是会掉出来,所以我就把它固定在了上面
14:19
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:21
This is supposed应该 -- don't even get me started开始. But that's not the worst最差 one.
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这样我就不用总是连接电线了,但这还不是最糟糕的
14:25
This is what it looks容貌 like under my desk.
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这是我桌子底下的情形
14:27
I took this picture图片 just two days ago.
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是我两天前拍下来的
14:30
So we really haven't没有 progressed进展 that much since以来 1908.
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其实,自从1908年以来我们根本没有太大的进步
14:33
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:35
It's a total, total mess食堂.
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还是一团糟
14:37
And, you know, we think it's getting得到 better,
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我觉得将来会更好一些
14:40
but have you tried试着 to install安装 802.11 yourself你自己?
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但,你有没有试着自己安装802.11
14:44
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:45
I challenge挑战 you to try. It's very hard.
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我觉得大家应该尝试一下,非常难
14:47
I know Ph博士.D.s in Computer电脑 Science科学 --
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我认识的一些计算机科学专业的博士
14:50
this process处理 has brought them to tears眼泪, absolute绝对 tears眼泪. (Laughter笑声)
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都认为这个过程非常劳神,绝对让人痛苦
14:54
And that's assuming假设 you already已经 have DSLDSL in your house.
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前提是,你在你的家中有DSL(数字用户线路)
15:00
Try to get DSLDSL installed安装 in your house.
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把数字用户线路装在你的家中
15:03
The engineers工程师 who do it everyday每天 can't do it.
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每天做这件事情的工程师都做不了
15:05
They have to -- typically一般, they come three times.
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他们有时不得不往返三次
15:08
And one friend朋友 of mine was telling告诉 me a story故事:
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我的一个朋友曾经告诉我一个故事
15:10
not only did they get there and have to wait,
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不仅仅是那些工作人员到了那里之后,去等待
15:13
but then the engineers工程师, when they finally最后 did get there,
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而且最终工程师到了那里
15:16
for the third第三 time, they had to call somebody.
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也就是第三次的时候,工程师也不得不打电话求助其他人
15:18
And they were really happy快乐 that the guy had a speakerphone免提
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那些工作人员很高兴,因为这个工程师有一个免提电话
15:21
because then they had to wait on hold保持 for an hour小时
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这样他们在另一个小时的等待过程中就可以
15:23
to talk to somebody to give them an access访问 code
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和另一拨人交流并告诉他们访问代码
15:25
after they got there.
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直至他们到达
15:27
So we're not -- we're pretty漂亮 kludge-y杂牌-Y ourselves我们自己.
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其实我们自己本身就是一台杂牌组装电脑
15:31
By the way, DSLDSL is a kludge组装机.
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顺便说一下,DSL(数字用户线路)就是组装的
15:33
I mean, this is a twisted扭曲 pair of copper that was never designed设计
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也就是说铜制双绞线设计制作的初衷
15:35
for the purpose目的 it's being存在 put to --
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并不是用于互联网
15:37
you know it's the whole整个 thing --
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这就是整个事情
15:39
we're very, very primitive原始. And that's kind of the point.
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我们是很原始的,这才是重点
15:43
Because, you know, resilience弹性 -- if you think of it in terms条款 of the Gold Rush,
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因为,你知道的,弹性——如果你把它当作淘金热
15:47
then you'd be pretty漂亮 depressed郁闷 right now
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然后你会很沮丧
15:49
because the last nugget金块 of gold would be gone走了.
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因为最后一块黄金将会消失
15:52
But the good thing is, with innovation革新, there isn't a last nugget金块.
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不过,值得高兴的是,通过创新,黄金将会取之不尽
15:55
Every一切 new thing creates创建 two new questions问题 and two new opportunities机会.
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新生事物创造了两个新问题的同时也创造了两个新的机遇(问题与机遇并存)
16:00
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are --
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如果你相信这句话,那么你也就能体会我们现在的处境
16:04
this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible难以置信 kludge组装机 --
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这就是我的观点:我喜欢我们所处的这种充斥了组装电脑的环境
16:08
and I haven't没有 even talked about user用户 interfaces接口 on the Web卷筒纸 --
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我甚至没有提及互联网上的用户界面(的千差万别)
16:12
but there's so much kludge组装机, so much terrible可怕 stuff东东 --
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但是,现实中有太多的杂牌组装电脑,太多可怕的东西
16:15
we are at the 1908 Hurley赫尔利 washing洗涤 machine stage阶段 with the Internet互联网.
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当今互联网的发展状况和1908年Hurley牌洗衣机如出一辙
16:19
That's where we are. We don't get our hair头发 caught抓住 in it,
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这就是现在我们的处境。我们不再有头发被搅在洗衣机里的事件发生了
16:22
but that's the level水平 of primitiveness原始性 of where we are.
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但这就是我们所处在的原始水平
16:25
We're in 1908.
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仿佛回到了1908年
16:27
And if you believe that, then stuff东东 like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996:
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如果你相信我所说的,那么像这样的事情就不会困扰你了。这是1996年的一条消息:
16:31
"All the negatives底片 add up to making制造 the online线上 experience经验 not worth价值 the trouble麻烦."
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“所有的负面消息累积起来,让我们觉得解决网络问题的努力变得毫无价值。”
16:35
1998: "Amazon亚马逊.toast烤面包." In 1999: "Amazon亚马逊.bomb炸弹."
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1998:“亚马逊如同烤面包”,但1999:“亚马逊就是炸弹”
16:41
My mom妈妈 hates this picture图片.
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我妈妈不喜欢这张照片
16:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
16:47
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very,
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但是,如果你真是这么认为的话,那仅仅是
16:50
very beginning开始, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley赫尔利 washing洗涤 machine,
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一个开始,如果你把互联网看成是1908年的Hurley牌洗衣机
16:54
then you're incredibly令人难以置信 optimistic乐观. And I do think that that's where we are.
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你就会觉得很有希望。而我就是这么看待现如今的网络的
16:57
And I do think there's more innovation革新 ahead of us
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我坚信,将来我们能够创造的革新远比我们已经
17:00
than there is behind背后 us.
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做到的要多得多
17:02
And in 1917, Sears西尔斯 -- I want to get this exactly究竟 right.
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1917年,当时...我希望别把这个搞错了
17:07
This was the advertisement广告 that they ran in 1917.
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这是一个在1917年播出的广告
17:11
It says: "Use your electricity电力 for more than light."
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上面有句话:“不要仅仅用电来照明。”
17:14
And I think that's where we are.
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我觉得,这就是我们现在所面临的处境
17:16
We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
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我们还非常非常早。谢谢大家。
Translated by dayu Vong
Reviewed by Chunlei Chang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999.

Why you should listen

Jeff Bezos didn't invent online shopping, but he almost single-handedly turned it into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His Amazon.com began as a bookstore in 1994, and quickly expanded into dozens of product categories, forcing the world's biggest retailers to rethink their business models, and ultimately changing the way people shop.

But Amazon.com isn't just an internet success story. It's the standard by which all web businesses are now judged -- if not by their shareholders, then by their customers. Amazon set a high bar for reliability and customer service, and also introduced a wide range of online retail conventions -- from user reviews and one-click shopping to the tab interface and shopping cart icon -- so commonplace we no longer think of them as once having been innovations.

When the Internet bubble burst, Amazon.com took a hit with the other e-commerce pioneers, but the fundamentally sound company hung tough. It now sells more than $10 billion a year of goods, profitably, and its technology will influence the changes to business and media that will come next. Amazon recently released Kindle, a wireless digital reading device, giving the term "page turning" a completely new definition. Bezos, meanwhile, is one of the few early Web CEOs who still run the companies they founded. Outside of his work with Amazon, he recently founded Blue Origin, a space-flight startup.

More profile about the speaker
Jeff Bezos | Speaker | TED.com