ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.

Why you should listen

Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.

Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.

Read Mission Blue's interview with Daniel Pauly >>

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com
Mission Blue Voyage

Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline

丹尼尔.保利:海洋的变动基准线

Filmed:
254,411 views

鱼越变越小的现象表明,在我们这个时代,海洋的状况已恶化。而丹尼尔.保利告诉我们,每次基准线下降,我们就把它说成是新的“常态”。究竟到何时,我们才停止往下降低标准。
- Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
I'm going to speak说话
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我要讲的是
00:14
about a tiny, little idea理念.
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一个很小概念
00:17
And this is about shifting baseline底线.
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与基准线的变动有关
00:21
And because the idea理念 can be explained解释 in one minute分钟,
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这个概念一分钟就能讲完了
00:25
I will tell you three stories故事 before
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所以我先讲三个故事
00:28
to fill in the time.
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来混时间
00:30
And the first story故事
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第一个故事
00:32
is about Charles查尔斯 Darwin达尔文, one of my heroes英雄.
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讲的是达尔文 我的偶像之一
00:35
And he was here, as you well know, in '35.
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他曾来过这里 大家都知道 那是1935年
00:38
And you'd think he was chasing finches,
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你们可能以为他在追鸟雀
00:40
but he wasn't.
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其实不是
00:42
He was actually其实 collecting搜集 fish.
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他是在捕鱼
00:44
And he described描述 one of them
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他说一条鱼
00:46
as very "common共同."
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很”常见“
00:48
This was the sailfinsailfin grouper石斑鱼.
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这是一种石斑鱼
00:50
A big fishery渔业 was run on it
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这种鱼被大量捕捉
00:52
until直到 the '80s.
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到八十年代
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Now the fish is on the IUCN世界自然保护联盟 Red List名单.
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现在 这种鱼已经被列入国际自然保护联盟的红色名录
00:58
Now this story故事,
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这个故事
01:00
we have heard听说 it lots of times
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我们已经听过很多遍了
01:03
on Galapagos加拉帕戈斯 and other places地方,
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在加拉帕戈斯群岛和其他地方都听过
01:05
so there is nothing particular特定 about it.
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没什么新鲜的
01:08
But the point is, we still come to Galapagos加拉帕戈斯.
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问题在于 我们现在还会去加拉帕戈斯群岛
01:11
We still think it is pristine质朴.
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还认为那是还是原生态
01:14
The brochures宣传册 still say
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旅游宣传册上还说
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it is untouched不变.
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这里未经开发
01:19
So what happens发生 here?
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这里究竟是什么情况
01:22
The second第二 story故事, also to illustrate说明 another另一个 concept概念,
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第二个故事 讲的是另一个概念
01:25
is called shifting waistline腰围.
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叫做变动的"腰准线"
01:27
(Laughter笑声)
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(众人笑)
01:30
Because I was there in '71,
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1971年的时候 我在那里
01:32
studying研究 a lagoon泻湖 in West西 Africa非洲.
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考察西非的一片西湖
01:34
I was there because I grew成长 up in Europe欧洲
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我去那里是因为我在欧洲长大
01:37
and I wanted later后来 to work in Africa非洲.
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我想以后到非洲工作
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And I thought I could blend混合 in.
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我以为我可以融入当地社会
01:41
And I got a big sunburn晒斑,
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我还被晒伤了一大块
01:43
and I was convinced相信 that I was really not from there.
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结果我发现我的确不是非洲来的
01:46
This was my first sunburn晒斑.
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那是我第一次被晒伤
01:48
And the lagoon泻湖
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这片泻湖
01:51
was surrounded包围 by palm棕榈 trees树木,
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被棕榈树环绕
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as you can see, and a few少数 mangrove红树.
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你们可以看到一些红树
01:55
And it had tilapia罗非鱼
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这里有罗非鱼
01:57
about 20 centimeters公分,
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大概20厘米长
01:59
a species种类 of tilapia罗非鱼 called blackchin萨罗 tilapia罗非鱼.
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这种罗非鱼叫黑颚罗非鱼
02:01
And the fisheries渔业 for this tilapia罗非鱼
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人们捕捞罗非鱼
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sustained持续 lots of fish and they had a good time
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这让许多鱼存活了下来 它们活得很好
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and they earned more than average平均
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渔业的收入在加纳
02:08
in Ghana加纳.
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高出平均水平
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When I went there 27 years年份 later后来,
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二十七年之后 我回到那里
02:13
the fish had shrunk压缩 to half of their size尺寸.
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这种鱼的大小缩减了一半
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They were maturing成熟 at five centimeters公分.
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它们成年时只有五厘米长
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They had been pushed genetically基因.
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它们的发育在遗传上被改变了
02:20
There were still fishes鱼类.
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那里还有鱼
02:22
They were still kind of happy快乐.
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它们还是活得不错
02:24
And the fish also were happy快乐 to be there.
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鱼儿们也很喜欢生活在那里
02:29
So nothing has changed,
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似乎没什么变化
02:31
but everything has changed.
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但其实 一切都改变了
02:33
My third第三 little story故事
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第三个故事讲的是
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is that I was an accomplice同案犯
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将拖网捕捞
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in the introduction介绍 of trawling拖网
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引入非洲东南部的
02:39
in Southeast东南 Asia亚洲.
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有我一份
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In the '70s -- well, beginning开始 in the '60s --
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在七十年代--其实是六十年代初期--
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Europe欧洲 did lots of development发展 projects项目.
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欧洲进行了许多发展项目
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Fish development发展
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渔业发展
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meant意味着 imposing威风 on countries国家
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意味着强迫
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that had already已经 100,000 fishers渔民
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渔民人数在达十万人的国家
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to impose强加 on them industrial产业 fishing钓鱼.
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进行工业捕鱼
02:57
And this boat, quite相当 ugly丑陋,
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这艘船 挺难看的
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is called the Mutiara珍珠 4.
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叫Mutiara 4号
03:01
And I went sailing帆船 on it,
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我乘上这艘船
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and we did surveys调查
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我们一路做调查
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throughout始终 the southern南部的 South China中国 sea
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沿着中国南海
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and especially特别 the JavaJava的 Sea.
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尤其是爪哇海
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And what we caught抓住,
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我们捕捞到了
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we didn't have words for it.
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叫不出名字的东西
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What we caught抓住, I know now,
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现在我知道了 我们捞到的
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is the bottom底部 of the sea.
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是海底的生物
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And 90 percent百分 of our catch抓住
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百分之九十
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were sponges海绵,
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是海绵
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other animals动物 that are fixed固定 on the bottom底部.
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以及其他固定在海底的动物
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And actually其实 most of the fish,
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实际上 大多数鱼
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they are a little spot on the debris废墟,
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就是那堆杂物中的小点
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the piles of debris废墟, were coral珊瑚 reef fish.
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它们是生活在珊瑚礁中的鱼
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Essentially实质上 the bottom底部 of the sea came来了 onto the deck甲板
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海底被端上了甲板
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and then was thrown抛出 down.
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后来又被扔下去
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And these pictures图片 are extraordinary非凡
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这些照片意义非凡
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because this transition过渡 is very rapid快速.
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因为这个变化过程非常快
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Within a year, you do a survey调查
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不到一年 你再进行调查
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and then commercial广告 fishing钓鱼 begins开始.
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接着渔业又开始了
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The bottom底部 is transformed改造
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海底发生了变化
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from, in this case案件, a hard bottom底部 or soft柔软的 coral珊瑚
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坚硬的海底或柔软的珊瑚
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into a muddy mess食堂.
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变成了一滩泥泞
03:57
This is a dead turtle.
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这是一只死了的海龟
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They were not eaten吃过, they were thrown抛出 away because they were dead.
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它们没有被吃掉 而是因为死了而被扔掉的
04:02
And one time we caught抓住 a live生活 one.
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有一次 我们捉到一只活的
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It was not drowned淹死的 yet然而.
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它还没有淹死
04:06
And then they wanted to kill it because it was good to eat.
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他们想杀掉它 因为海龟肉很美味
04:09
This mountain of debris废墟
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这堆积如山的杂物
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is actually其实 collected by fishers渔民
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是渔民们捞上来的
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every一切 time they go
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他们每次进入未经捕捞的海域
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into an area that's never been fished捕鱼.
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都能捞到这些东西
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But it's not documented记录.
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而这并没有被记录在案
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We transform转变 the world世界,
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我们改变了世界
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but we don't remember记得 it.
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但却不认账
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We adjust调整 our baseline底线
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我们把基准线
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to the new level水平,
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调整到一个新水平
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and we don't recall召回 what was there.
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而把之前的水平抛在脑后
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If you generalize概括 this,
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归纳一下
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something like this happens发生.
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就会出现这样的情况
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You have on the y axis some good thing:
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Y轴代表美好的事物
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biodiversity生物多样性, numbers数字 of orcaORCA,
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生物多样性 逆戟鲸的数量
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the greenness绿色 of your country国家, the water supply供应.
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你的国家的绿化 水资源供应
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And over time it changes变化 --
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随着时间的变化而变化
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it changes变化
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之所以变化
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because people do things, or naturally自然.
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是因为人们的活动或自然的变化
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Every一切 generation
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每代人
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will use the images图片
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都会
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that they got at the beginning开始 of their conscious意识 lives生活
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以他们有意识之初的画面
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as a standard标准
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作为标准
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and will extrapolate推断 forward前锋.
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并往前推测
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And the difference区别 then,
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所产生的差距
05:06
they perceive感知 as a loss失利.
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他们视为一种损失
05:08
But they don't perceive感知 what happened发生 before as a loss失利.
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但他们没有把之前发生的事情视为一种损失
05:11
You can have a succession演替 of changes变化.
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一系列变化发生了
05:13
At the end结束 you want to sustain支持
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最后你希望
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miserable leftovers残羹剩饭.
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保住最后可怜的幸存者
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And that, to a large extent程度, is what we want to do now.
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而这在很大程度上 就是我们现在要做的
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We want to sustain支持 things that are gone走了
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我们想要保护那些消失殆尽的东西
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or things that are not the way they were.
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或者那些发生了变化的东西
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Now one should think
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现在人们应当认为
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this problem问题 affected受影响 people
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在一个弱肉强食的社会中
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certainly当然 when in predatory掠夺性 societies社会,
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这个问题当然会对人产生影响
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they killed杀害 animals动物
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他们捕杀动物
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and they didn't know they had doneDONE so
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而直到几代人之后
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after a few少数 generations.
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才意识到他们的所作所为
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Because, obviously明显,
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因为 很显然
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an animal动物 that is very abundant丰富,
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在一种动物灭绝
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before it gets得到 extinct绝种,
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或濒临灭绝前
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it becomes rare罕见.
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这种动物的数量还是很多的
05:57
So you don't lose失去 abundant丰富 animals动物.
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所以你不会失去数量多的动物物种
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You always lose失去 rare罕见 animals动物.
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你失去的是珍稀动物
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And therefore因此 they're not perceived感知
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所以这些动物的消失
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as a big loss失利.
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不会被视为重大损失
06:06
Over time,
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随着时间推移
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we concentrate集中 on large animals动物,
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我们关注大型动物
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and in a sea that means手段 the big fish.
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在海洋中 这指的是大型鱼类
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They become成为 rarer罕见的 because we fish them.
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我们捕捞鱼类致使它们的数量越来越少
06:15
Over time we have a few少数 fish left
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一段时间时候 我们只剩下少数鱼了
06:17
and we think this is the baseline底线.
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我们就把这个数量看做基准线
06:20
And the question is,
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问题是
06:22
why do people accept接受 this?
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人们为什么对此安之若素呢
06:27
Well because they don't know that it was different不同.
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这是因为他们不知道情况变化了
06:30
And in fact事实, lots of people, scientists科学家们,
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事实上 许多人 尤其是科学家
06:33
will contest比赛 that it was really different不同.
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反对这种意见
06:35
And they will contest比赛 this
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他们反对
06:37
because the evidence证据
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是因为
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presented呈现 in an earlier mode模式
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早前的分析模型中所呈现的证据方式
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is not in the way
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并不是
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they would like the evidence证据 presented呈现.
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他们想要的呈现方式
06:49
For example,
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举个例子
06:51
the anecdote轶事 that some present当下,
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有人讲了一个故事
06:53
as Captain队长 so-and-so谁谁
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说某某船长
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observed观察到的 lots of fish in this area
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发现这个地区有很多鱼
06:58
cannot不能 be used
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这个故事不能拿来当证据
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or is usually平时 not utilized利用 by fishery渔业 scientists科学家们,
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渔业科学家通常也不会采纳这个故事
07:03
because it's not "scientific科学."
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因为它不够“科学”
07:05
So you have a situation情况
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这就造成了一个情况:
07:07
where people don't know the past过去,
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人们对过去一无所知
07:10
even though虽然 we live生活 in literate识字 societies社会,
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尽管 我们生活在文明社会中
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because they don't trust相信
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因为他们不相信
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the sources来源 of the past过去.
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关于过去的信息来源
07:18
And hence于是, the enormous巨大 role角色
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他们也不了解
07:21
that a marine海洋 protected保护 area can play.
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一个海洋保护区域的重大角色
07:23
Because with marine海洋 protected保护 areas,
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因为 我们实际上是通过海洋保护区
07:26
we actually其实 recreate重建 the past过去.
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来重塑过去
07:30
We recreate重建 the past过去 that people cannot不能 conceive构想
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我们重塑了过去 让人们无法设想过去的情况
07:33
because the baseline底线 has shifted
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因为基准线变动了
07:35
and is extremely非常 low.
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变得极低
07:37
That is for people
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这适用于
07:39
who can see a marine海洋 protected保护 area
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那些看到一片海洋保护区的人
07:44
and who can benefit效益
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和那些
07:46
from the insight眼光 that it provides提供,
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从其中的深层意义获益的人
07:49
which哪一个 enables使 them to reset重启 their baseline底线.
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这让他们有能力重置他们的基准线
07:53
How about the people who can't do that
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那么那些没有能力这么做的人呢
07:55
because they have no access访问 --
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他们没法知道
07:57
the people in the Midwest中西部 for example?
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例如中西部地区的人们
08:00
There I think
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我想
08:02
that the arts艺术 and film电影
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艺术作品和电影
08:04
can perhaps也许 fill the gap间隙,
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可以填补这个空缺
08:06
and simulation模拟.
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还有原态模拟
08:08
This is a simulation模拟 of Chesapeake切萨皮克 Bay.
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这是切萨皮克湾的原态模拟
08:11
There were gray灰色 whales鲸鱼 in Chesapeake切萨皮克 Bay a long time ago --
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很久以前 有灰鲸生活在切萨皮克湾
08:13
500 years年份 ago.
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那是五百年前
08:15
And you will have noticed注意到 that the hues色调 and tones
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你会注意到上面的色调
08:18
are like "Avatar阿凡达."
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酷似“阿凡达”
08:20
(Laughter笑声)
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(众人笑)
08:22
And if you think about "Avatar阿凡达,"
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一想到“阿凡达”
08:24
if you think of why people were so touched感动 by it --
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一想到人们为何会为之动容
08:27
never mind心神 the Pocahontas风中奇缘 story故事 --
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风中奇缘的故事就不说了
08:31
why so touched感动 by the imagery意象?
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为何人们会被里面的画面所打动
08:35
Because it evokes唤起 something
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这是因为它激发了
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that in a sense has been lost丢失.
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我们遗失了的某样东西
08:40
And so my recommendation建议,
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我建议
08:42
it's the only one I will provide提供,
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这也是我唯一的建议
08:44
is for Cameron卡梅伦 to do "Avatar阿凡达 IIII" underwater水下.
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希望卡梅隆的“阿凡达2”能在水下拍摄
08:49
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢大家
08:51
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Lili Liang
Reviewed by Guo Tang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.

Why you should listen

Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.

Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.

Read Mission Blue's interview with Daniel Pauly >>

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com