ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.

Why you should listen

Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.

On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>

More profile about the speaker
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com
TED2012

Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod

Rob Reid:80亿美元的iPod

Filmed:
3,208,583 views

漫画作家Rob Reid给大家介绍了版权数学Copyright Math(TM) - 一个基于娱乐产业律师和说客所提供的实际数字的全新研究领域
- Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

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The recent最近 debate辩论 over copyright版权 laws法律
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最近广为争论的版权法
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like SOPASOPA in the United联合的 States状态
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像美国的SOPA禁止网络盗版法案 (Stop Online Piracy Act)
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and the ACTAACTA agreement协议 in Europe欧洲
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和欧洲的ACTA反仿冒贸易协定(Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement)
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has been very emotional情绪化.
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都有些感情用事
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And I think some dispassionate冷静, quantitative reasoning推理
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而且,我觉得引入客观、定量的数据推理
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could really bring带来 a great deal合同 to the debate辩论.
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会对版权法的争论很有帮助
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I'd therefore因此 like to propose提出
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所以,我想说
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that we employ采用, we enlist招募,
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我们要充分利用
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the cutting切割 edge边缘 field领域 of copyright版权 math数学
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这个前沿领域:Copyright Math版权数学
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whenever每当 we approach途径 this subject学科.
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无论何时谈到有关版权法这个话题
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For instance, just recently最近
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比如说,就在最近
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the Motion运动 Picture图片 Association协会 revealed透露
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美国电影协会声明
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that our economy经济 loses失去 58 billion十亿 dollars美元 a year
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盗版一年给我们的经济造成
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to copyright版权 theft盗窃.
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的损失有580亿美元
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Now rather than just argue争论 about this number,
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与其对这个数字进行争论,
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a copyright版权 mathematician数学家 will analyze分析 it
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版权数学家会分析这个数字
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and he'll地狱 soon不久 discover发现 that this money
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他很快就会发现这笔钱
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could stretch伸展 from this auditorium礼堂
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可以从这个礼堂
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all the way across横过 Ocean海洋 Boulevard林荫大道
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一直堆到海洋大道...
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to the Westin威斯汀, and then to Mars火星 ...
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再到威斯汀酒店...然后到火星...
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(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
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... if we use pennies便士.
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当然,如果我们用1分硬币来摆这些钱的话
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Now this is obviously明显 a powerful强大,
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现在看看,这明显是一个强大的
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some might威力 say dangerously危险 powerful强大, insight眼光.
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有些人甚至会说是极端强大的说法
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But it's also a morally道德 important重要 one.
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但这同时也是一个具有重要道德意义的说法。
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Because this isn't just the hypothetical假想 retail零售 value
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因为这可不是
01:15
of some pirated盗版 movies电影 that we're talking about,
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我们常常说到的一些盗版电影的预期零售价
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but this is actual实际 economic经济 losses损失.
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而是真正的经济损失
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This is the equivalent当量
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这相当于
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to the entire整个 American美国 corn玉米 crop作物 failing失败
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整个美国玉米种植量的损失
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along沿 with all of our fruit水果 crops作物,
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还有我们所有的水果作物
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as well as wheat小麦, tobacco烟草,
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还有麦子,烟草
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rice白饭, sorghum --
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大米和高粱-
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whatever随你 sorghum is -- losing失去 sorghum.
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管它是什么高粱——反正我们是损失了的高粱
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But identifying识别 the actual实际 losses损失 to the economy经济
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但衡量经济上的实际损失
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is almost几乎 impossible不可能 to do
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几乎是不可能做到的
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unless除非 we use copyright版权 math数学.
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除非我们用版权数学法
01:41
Now music音乐 revenues收入 are down by about eight billion十亿 dollars美元 a year
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自从纳普斯特Napster出现之后
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since以来 Napster纳普斯特 first came来了 on the scene现场.
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现在音乐产业的收入每年都下降80亿元
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So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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所以这一块就是我们要研究的
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But total movie电影 revenues收入
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但是整个电影行业的收入
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across横过 theaters剧院, home video视频 and pay-per-view按次付费 are up.
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包括剧院,家庭影院以及点播购买电视节目的收入在上升
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And TV电视, satellite卫星 and cable电缆 revenues收入 are way up.
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还有电视,卫星电视和有线电视的收入上升了很多
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Other content内容 markets市场 like book publishing出版 and radio无线电
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其它内容传播市场,像书籍出版和广播
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are also up.
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的收入也在上升
02:00
So this small missing失踪 chunk here
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所以少的这一块
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is puzzling令人费解.
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很让人莫名其妙
02:04
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
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(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
02:10
Since以来 the big content内容 markets市场
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由于总体的内容传播市场的收入
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have grown长大的 in line线 with historic历史性 norms规范,
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依照着过去的标准还在增长
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it's not additional额外 growth发展 that piracy海盗行为 has prevented防止,
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盗版行为并没有阻止它们的继续增长
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but copyright版权 math数学 tells告诉 us
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但是版权数学法告诉我们
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it must必须 therefore因此 be foregone已成 growth发展
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这一定是因为在一个没有历史记录的市场中
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in a market市场 that has no historic历史性 norms规范 --
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有某种预料之外的增长
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one that didn't exist存在 in the 90's.
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这个市场在1990年代并不存在
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What we're looking at here
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我们正在看的
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is the insidious阴险 cost成本 of ringtone铃声 piracy海盗行为.
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是电话铃声侵权的潜在成本
02:30
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:34
50 billion十亿 dollars美元 of it a year,
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500亿美元一年
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which哪一个 is enough足够, at 30 seconds a ringtone铃声,
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这已经不少了,一个铃声30秒
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that could stretch伸展 from here
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可以从这里一直延伸到
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to Neanderthal尼安德特人 times.
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尼安德特人的时代
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(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:46
It's true真正.
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这是真的
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(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
02:50
I have Excel高强.
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我可有Excel表格作证
02:52
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:54
The movie电影 folks乡亲 also tell us
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电影行业的人还告诉我们
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that our economy经济 loses失去
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我们的经济损失中
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over 370,000 jobs工作 to content内容 theft盗窃,
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有超过37,0000的失业是源于内容传播的侵权
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which哪一个 is quite相当 a lot when you consider考虑 that, back in '98,
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如果把这个数字放到1998年,这已经不少了
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the Bureau of Labor劳动 Statistics统计 indicated指示
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美国劳工统计局表明
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that the motion运动 picture图片 and video视频 industries行业
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美国电影协会和视频行业
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were employing采用 270,000 people.
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雇佣了27,0000名员工
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Other data数据 has the music音乐 industry行业 at about 45,000 people.
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其它数据显示音乐行业有大概4,5000人
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And so the job工作 losses损失 that came来了 with the Internet互联网
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而随着网络带来的失业
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and all that content内容 theft盗窃,
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以及所有的内容传播侵权
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have therefore因此 left us with negative employment雇用 in our content内容 industries行业.
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给我们的内容市场造成了一个负就业
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And this is just one of the many许多 mind-blowing令人兴奋 statistics统计
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这是众多让人崩溃的统计数字之一
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that copyright版权 mathematicians数学家 have to deal合同 with every一切 day.
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版权数学家每天要对付这些数据
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And some people think that string theory理论 is tough强硬.
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可有些人觉得弦理论很难
03:29
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright版权 mathematicians'数学家 toolkit工具包.
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这是版权数学家工具箱里的一个关键数字
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It's the precise精确 amount of harm危害
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它是每当一个歌曲或电影
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that comes to media媒体 companies公司
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被侵权后
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whenever每当 a single copyrighted受版权保护 song歌曲 or movie电影
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给一个传媒公司所带来伤害的
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gets得到 pirated盗版.
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准确数字
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Hollywood好莱坞 and Congress国会 derived派生 this number mathematically数学
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好莱坞和国会在讨论减少版权损失
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back when they last satSAT down to improve提高 copyright版权 damages赔偿
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和制定版权法的时候
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and made制作 this law.
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用数学方法计算出这个数字
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Some people think this number's数字的 a little bit large,
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有些人觉得这数字太大了
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but copyright版权 mathematicians数学家 who are media媒体 lobby前厅 experts专家
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但是作为传媒界游说专家的版权数学家们
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are merely仅仅 surprised诧异
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只是惊讶
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that it doesn't get compounded复合 for inflation通货膨胀 every一切 year.
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为什么这个数字不会随着通货膨胀而增长
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Now when this law first passed通过,
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在这项法律通过的时候
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the world's世界 hottest最热 MPMP3 player播放机 could hold保持 just 10 songs歌曲.
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全球最热销的MP3播放器也只能存10首歌
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And it was a big Christmas圣诞 hit击中.
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而且是圣诞节重磅推出
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Because what little hoodlum流氓 wouldn't不会 want
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因为小流氓不会把
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a million百万 and a half bucks-worth雄鹿价值 of stolen被盗 goods产品 in his pocket口袋.
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一个偷来的价值100多万的东西放在兜里
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(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:14
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
04:19
These days an iPodiPod的 Classic经典 can hold保持 40,000 songs歌曲,
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如今 一个iPod Classic随身听可以存4,0000首歌
04:22
which哪一个 is to say eight billion十亿 dollars-worth美元价值
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也就是说,相当于价值80亿美元
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of stolen被盗 media媒体.
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的盗版音乐。
04:27
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs工作.
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也相当于7,5000个工作岗位。
04:31
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:33
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
04:38
Now you might威力 find copyright版权 math数学 strange奇怪,
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也许,你现在觉得版权数学很奇怪
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but that's because it's a field领域
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但这是因为它是一个
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that's best最好 left to experts专家.
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最适合专家进行研究的领域
04:45
So that's it for now.
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今天就先说这么多
04:47
I hope希望 you'll你会 join加入 me next下一个 time
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我希望,下次
04:49
when I will be making制造 an equally一样 scientific科学 and fact-based以事实为依据 inquiry查询
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当我再对国外盗版音乐对美国经济的损失做一个
04:52
into the cost成本 of alien外侨 music音乐 piracy海盗行为 to he American美国 economy经济.
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比较科学、以事实为依据的调查时,你们还来听我说
04:55
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢
04:57
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
04:59
Thank you.
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谢谢
05:01
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Xiaojing Zheng
Reviewed by Ting Huang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.

Why you should listen

Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.

On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>

More profile about the speaker
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com