ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Foley - Professor
Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet.

Why you should listen

Dr. Jonathan Foley focusses on the complex relationship between global environmental systems and human civilization, using computer models to analyze changes in land use, ecosystems and resources around the world. After 15 years at the University of Wisconsin, Foley is now a professor and McKnight Presidential Chair in the Department of Ecology and director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota.

More profile about the speaker
Jonathan Foley | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxTC

Jonathan Foley: The other inconvenient truth

Jonathan Foley :另一个棘手的事实

Filmed:
881,631 views

粮食的迫切需求意味着农业已成为导致气候变迁、生物多样性丧失及环境破坏的最大因素。在 TEDxTC中,Jonathan Foley阐述为何我们亟需着手进行 "Terraculture"-即全球耕作。(摄于TEDxTC)
- Professor
Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
Tonight今晚, I want to have a conversation会话 about
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今晚,我想谈一个
00:14
this incredible难以置信 global全球 issue问题
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令人震惊的全球议题
00:16
that's at the intersection路口 of land土地 use, food餐饮 and environment环境,
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即土地利用、粮食和环境的关系
00:21
something we can all relate涉及 to,
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某些和每个人都息息相关的事物
00:22
and what I've been calling调用 the other inconvenient不方便 truth真相.
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我称之为“另一个棘手的事实”
00:25
But first, I want to take you on a little journey旅程.
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但首先我想
带领大家进行一趟简短的旅程
00:28
Let's first visit访问 our planet行星, but at night,
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先参观一下我们的星球,不过是在夜间
00:31
and from space空间.
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从外太空观看
00:33
This is what our planet行星 looks容貌 like from outer space空间
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这是从外太空观察地球夜间的景象
00:36
at nighttime夜间, if you were to take a satellite卫星 and travel旅行
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如果你搭乘人造卫星
00:38
around the planet行星. And the thing you would notice注意 first,
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绕行地球,你首先注意到的是
00:41
of course课程, is how dominant优势 the human人的 presence存在
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当然,人类这种生物
00:44
on our planet行星 is.
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主宰地球的程度
00:46
We see cities城市, we see oil fields领域,
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我们看见城市、油田
00:49
you can even make out fishing钓鱼 fleets车队 in the sea,
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你甚至能辨识出海上的渔船队
00:52
that we are dominating主导 much of our planet行星,
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我们主宰大部分地球
00:54
and mostly大多 through通过 the use of energy能源
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主要藉由能源的运用
00:56
that we see here at night.
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如我们夜间所见的景象
00:58
But let's go back and drop下降 it a little deeper更深
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但我们回头稍做深入研究
01:00
and look during the daytime白天.
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观察白昼的情形
01:02
What we see during the day is our landscapes景观.
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我们于白昼所见的是地表景观
01:06
This is part部分 of the Amazon亚马逊 Basin盆地, a place地点 called Rond朗多ôniaNIA
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这是亚马逊盆地中一个叫朗多尼亚的地方
01:09
in the south-center南方中心 part部分 of the Brazilian巴西人 Amazon亚马逊.
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位于巴西亚马逊盆地中南部
01:13
If you look really carefully小心 in the upper right-hand右手 corner,
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如果你仔细观察右上角
01:16
you're going to see a thin white白色 line线,
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将会看见一条白色细线
01:18
which哪一个 is a road that was built内置 in the 1970s.
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那是兴建于1970年代的道路
01:22
If we come back to the same相同 place地点 in 2001,
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如果我们回顾2001年同地区的景观
01:25
what we're going to find is that these roads道路
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将发现这些道路
01:27
spurt off more roads道路, and more roads道路 after that,
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四处延伸,然后延伸出更多道路
01:31
at the end结束 of which哪一个 is a small clearing空地 in the rainforest雨林
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道路尽头是雨林中的小空地
01:34
where there are going to be a few少数 cows奶牛.
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豢养着一些牛
01:37
These cows奶牛 are used for beef牛肉. We're going to eat these cows奶牛.
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这些牛将变成牛肉,进入人类腹中
01:40
And these cows奶牛 are eaten吃过 basically基本上 in South America美国,
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基本上这些牛肉将运往南美
01:43
in Brazil巴西 and Argentina阿根廷. They're not being存在 shipped up here.
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供巴西人和阿根廷人食用,不会运往这里
01:45
But this kind of fishbone鱼刺 pattern模式 of deforestation森林砍伐
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但我们发现
这种森林经砍伐后的鱼骨状图案
01:48
is something we notice注意 a lot of around the tropics热带,
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遍布热带地区
01:51
especially特别 in this part部分 of the world世界.
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尤其是这片区域
01:53
If we go a little bit further进一步 south in our little tour游览 of the world世界,
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如果这趟世界之旅稍微往南前进
01:56
we can go to the Bolivian玻利维亚 edge边缘 of the Amazon亚马逊,
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可抵达亚马逊盆地与玻利维亚交界处
01:59
here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully小心,
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这同样是1975年的景观,如果仔细观察
02:03
there's a thin white白色 line线 through通过 that kind of seam接缝,
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将会看见一条白色细线
穿过一道类似细缝的地方
02:06
and there's a lone孤单 farmer农民 out there
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一位孤独的农夫
02:08
in the middle中间 of the primeval原始 jungle丛林.
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伫立在原始丛林中
02:10
Let's come back again a few少数 years年份 later后来, here in 2003,
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我们再回顾一下
数年后-2003年的景观
02:15
and we'll see that that landscape景观 actually其实 looks容貌
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我们所见的景观事实上十分类似
02:17
a lot more like Iowa爱荷华州 than it does like a rainforest雨林.
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爱荷华州,而非雨林
02:20
In fact事实, what you're seeing眼看 here are soybean黄豆 fields领域.
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事实上你所见的是黄豆田
02:24
These soybeans大豆 are being存在 shipped to Europe欧洲 and to China中国
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这些黄豆将运往欧洲和中国
02:27
as animal动物 feed饲料, especially特别 after the mad cow disease疾病 scare
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作为动物的饲料,尤其是疯牛病爆发后
02:30
about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed饲料 animals动物
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这是大约十年前的事,我们不想再喂动物
02:33
animal动物 protein蛋白 anymore, because that can transmit发送 disease疾病.
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动物性蛋白质,因为这将导致疾病传播
02:36
Instead代替, we want to feed饲料 them more vegetable蔬菜 proteins蛋白质.
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相反地,我们希望以
较多植物性蛋白质喂食动物
02:39
So soybeans大豆 have really exploded爆炸,
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因此黄豆需求激增
02:41
showing展示 how trade贸易 and globalization全球化 are
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显示贸易和全球化
02:44
really responsible主管 for the connections连接 to rainforests热带雨林
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确实与雨林及亚马逊盆地
02:47
and the Amazon亚马逊 -- an incredibly令人难以置信 strange奇怪
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息息相关-对我们来说十分陌生
02:49
and interconnected互联 world世界 that we have today今天.
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且与世隔绝的地区
02:52
Well, again and again, what we find as we look
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好,我们一再发现
02:54
around the world世界 in our little tour游览 of the world世界
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在环绕世界的旅程中
02:56
is that landscape景观 after landscape景观 after landscape景观
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无数地表景观
03:00
have been cleared清除 and altered改变 for growing生长 food餐饮
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遭受破坏,转变成粮食产地
03:03
and other crops作物.
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及其他作物产地
03:05
So one of the questions问题 we've我们已经 been asking is,
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因此我们常被问到的问题是
03:08
how much of the world世界 is used to grow增长 food餐饮,
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世上有多少土地被用于生产粮食?
03:10
and where is it exactly究竟, and how can we change更改 that
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这些地方位于何处?未来将发生何种改变?
03:12
into the future未来, and what does it mean?
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这代表什么意义?
03:15
Well, our team球队 has been looking at this on a global全球 scale规模,
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好,我们的团队观察全球情况
03:18
using运用 satellite卫星 data数据 and ground-based陆基 data数据 kind of to track跟踪
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利用人造卫星搜集的信息和地表数据
03:21
farming农业 on a global全球 scale规模.
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追踪全球农地规模
03:23
And this is what we found发现, and it's startling触目惊心.
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这是我们的发现,令人震惊不已
03:27
This map地图 shows节目 the presence存在 of agriculture农业
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这张地图显示农业
03:29
on planet行星 Earth地球.
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分布于地表的情形
03:32
The green绿色 areas are the areas we use to grow增长 crops作物,
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绿色区域是种植作物的地方
03:35
like wheat小麦 or soybeans大豆 or corn玉米 or rice白饭 or whatever随你.
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例如小麦、黄豆、玉米或稻米等
03:38
That's 16 million百万 square广场 kilometers'公里 worth价值 of land土地.
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相当于1600万平方公里土地
03:42
If you put it all together一起 in one place地点,
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如果将这些土地集中在同一处
03:44
it'd它会 be the size尺寸 of South America美国.
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大约相当于南美洲面积
03:47
The second第二 area, in brown棕色, is the world's世界 pastures牧场
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第二片以咖啡色表示的区域是牧地
03:49
and rangelands牧场, where our animals动物 live生活.
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及放牧区,动物生活于此
03:52
That area's地区的 about 30 million百万 square广场 kilometers公里,
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这片区域大约3000万平方公里
03:54
or about an Africa's非洲 worth价值 of land土地,
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或相当于非洲面积
03:57
a huge巨大 amount of land土地, and it's the best最好 land土地, of course课程,
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十分广大的土地,也是最肥沃的土地
04:00
is what you see. And what's left is, like,
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如你们所见,其余部份为
04:02
the middle中间 of the Sahara撒哈拉 Desert沙漠, or Siberia西伯利亚,
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撒哈拉沙漠、西伯利亚
04:04
or the middle中间 of a rain forest森林.
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或雨林深处
04:06
We're using运用 a planet's地球上的 worth价值 of land土地 already已经.
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我们已使用了相当于整个地球的土地
04:09
If we look at this carefully小心, we find it's about 40 percent百分
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如果我们仔细观察,将发现大约40%的
04:12
of the Earth's地球 land土地 surface表面 is devoted忠诚 to agriculture农业,
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地表贡献于农业
04:15
and it's 60 times larger
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比令我们
04:17
than all the areas we complain抱怨 about,
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怨声载道的居住地大60倍
04:20
our suburban郊区的 sprawl蔓生 and our cities城市 where we mostly大多 live生活.
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包括郊区和大多数人类居住的城市
04:23
Half of humanity人性 lives生活 in cities城市 today今天,
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目前世上有半数人口居住于城市
04:26
but a 60-times-larger-times-较大 area is used to grow增长 food餐饮.
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但生产粮食的土地比人类居住地大60倍
04:30
So this is an amazing惊人 kind of result结果,
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这是十分惊人的事实
04:32
and it really shocked吃惊 us when we looked看着 at that.
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令观察到这一点的我们震惊不已
04:34
So we're using运用 an enormous巨大 amount of land土地 for agriculture农业,
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因此我们将十分广大的土地用于农业
04:37
but also we're using运用 a lot of water.
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但也因此消耗大量水源
04:39
This is a photograph照片 flying飞行 into Arizona亚利桑那,
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这是亚利桑那州空照图
04:42
and when you look at it, you're like,
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当你目睹这幅景象时,会想
04:43
"What are they growing生长 here?" It turns out
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“他们在这里种什么?”事实上
04:44
they're growing生长 lettuce生菜 in the middle中间 of the desert沙漠
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他们在沙漠中种植莴苣
04:47
using运用 water sprayed on top最佳.
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用喷洒方式供应水源
04:49
Now, the irony讽刺 is, it's probably大概 sold出售
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讽刺的是,这些产品或许
04:51
in our supermarket超级市场 shelves货架 in the Twin双胞胎 Cities城市.
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正于双子城超市货架上贩售
04:53
But what's really interesting有趣 is, this water's水的 got to come
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但令人感趣的是,这些水源必定
04:56
from some place地点, and it comes from here,
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来自某处-来自此处
04:58
the Colorado科罗拉多州 River in North America美国.
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北美的科罗拉多河
05:01
Well, the Colorado科罗拉多州 on a typical典型 day in the 1950s,
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好,这是1950年代科罗拉多河平日景象
05:04
this is just, you know, not a flood洪水, not a drought干旱,
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如各位所见,没有洪水、没有干旱
05:06
kind of an average平均 day, it looks容貌 something like this.
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这是它平日的景象,如照片所示
05:09
But if we come back today今天, during a normal正常 condition条件
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但如果观察目前景观,这是在一般情况下
05:11
to the exact精确 same相同 location位置, this is what's left.
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同一地点仅剩的水流
05:15
The difference区别 is mainly主要 irrigating灌溉 the desert沙漠 for food餐饮,
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不同之处主要在于
河水用来灌溉沙漠中的作物
05:18
or maybe golf高尔夫球 courses培训班 in Scottsdale斯科茨代尔, you take your pick.
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或斯科茨代尔的高尔夫场,随你想象
05:22
Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining矿业 water
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好,这得消耗大量水源
同样地,我们开采水源
05:24
and using运用 it to grow增长 food餐饮,
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用于种植作物
05:27
and today今天, if you travel旅行 down further进一步 down the Colorado科罗拉多州,
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如果现在朝科罗拉多河下游前进
05:30
it dries干了 up completely全然 and no longer flows流动 into the ocean海洋.
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它已完全干涸,不再流向海洋
05:33
We've我们已经 literally按照字面 consumed消费 an entire整个 river in North America美国
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我们将北美整条河流消耗殆尽
05:36
for irrigation灌溉.
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仅为了灌溉作物
05:38
Well, that's not even the worst最差 example in the world世界.
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好,这并非世上最糟的情况
05:40
This probably大概 is: the Aral咸海 Sea.
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最糟的情况或许发生在咸海
05:43
Now, a lot you will remember记得 this from your geography地理 classes.
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在座大多数人
或许记得地理课中曾经学过
05:46
This is in the former前任的 Soviet苏联 Union联盟
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它位于前苏联
05:48
in between之间 Kazakhstan哈萨克斯坦 and Uzbekistan乌兹别克斯坦,
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介于哈萨克斯坦与乌兹别克之间
05:50
one of the great inland内陆 seas海域 of the world世界.
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是世上最大的内陆湖之一
05:53
But there's kind of a paradox悖论 here, because it looks容貌 like
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但其中有个吊诡处,因为它看起来
05:55
it's surrounded包围 by desert沙漠. Why is this sea here?
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彷佛被沙漠包围,为何它会出现在此处?
05:58
The reason原因 it's here is because, on the right-hand右手 side,
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它出现在此处的原因是,在右侧
06:00
you see two little rivers河流 kind of coming未来 down
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你可以看见两条小河
06:03
through通过 the sand, feeding馈送 this basin盆地 with water.
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穿越沙漠,供应这片低洼处水源
06:06
Those rivers河流 are draining排水 snowmelt融雪 from mountains
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河川汇集东部远处山脉的融雪
06:09
far to the east, where snow melts熔体, it travels旅行 down the river
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积雪融化后流向河川
06:12
through通过 the desert沙漠, and forms形式 the great Aral咸海 Sea.
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穿越沙漠,形成广大的咸海
06:15
Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets苏联 decided决定 to divert转移 that water
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好,1950年代,苏联决定将河水改道
06:19
to irrigate灌溉 the desert沙漠 to grow增长 cotton, believe it or not,
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引入沙漠地带,种植棉花,信不信由你
06:22
in Kazakhstan哈萨克斯坦, to sell cotton to the international国际 markets市场
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引入哈萨克斯坦,将棉花贩卖到国际市场
06:25
to bring带来 foreign国外 currency货币 into the Soviet苏联 Union联盟.
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替苏联赚取外汇
06:27
They really needed需要 the money.
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他们亟需这些收入
06:29
Well, you can imagine想像 what happens发生. You turn off
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好,你可以想象会发生什么情况
06:31
the water supply供应 to the Aral咸海 Sea, what's going to happen发生?
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截断咸海的水源会发生什么事?
06:34
Here it is in 1973,
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这分别是1973年
06:37
1986,
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1986年
06:39
1999,
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1999年
06:42
2004,
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2004年
06:45
and about 11 months个月 ago.
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和大约11个月前的情形
06:49
It's pretty漂亮 extraordinary非凡.
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确实十分惊人
06:51
Now a lot of us in the audience听众 here live生活 in the Midwest中西部.
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现场许多听众住在中西部
06:55
Imagine想像 that was Lake Superior优越.
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不妨将它想象成苏必利尔湖
06:57
Imagine想像 that was Lake Huron休伦.
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想象成休伦湖
07:01
It's an extraordinary非凡 change更改.
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这是十分惊人的改变
07:02
This is not only a change更改 in water and
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不仅是水量
07:05
where the shoreline海岸线 is, this is a change更改 in the fundamentals基本面
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或海岸线的改变
而是环境本质上的改变
07:07
of the environment环境 of this region地区.
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對这片区域來說
07:09
Let's start开始 with this.
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这么说吧
07:10
The Soviet苏联 Union联盟 didn't really have a Sierra内华达 Club俱乐部.
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苏联没有塞拉俱乐部(环保团体)
07:13
Let's put it that way.
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不妨以这个观点来看
07:14
So what you find in the bottom底部 of the Aral咸海 Sea ain't pretty漂亮.
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因此你发现咸海底部不甚美观
07:18
There's a lot of toxic有毒的 waste浪费, a lot of things
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存在许多毒性废弃物,许多物品
07:20
that were dumped there that are now becoming变得 airborne空降.
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弃置于此,现在已逐渐分解到大气中
07:22
One of those small islands岛屿 that was remote远程
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其中一个离岸甚远
07:24
and impossible不可能 to get to was a site现场
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难以抵达的小岛
07:26
of Soviet苏联 biological生物 weapons武器 testing测试.
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曾经是苏联生化武器测试地点
07:28
You can walk步行 there today今天.
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现在你可以步行到那里
07:30
Weather天气 patterns模式 have changed.
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气候形态已发生变化
07:31
Nineteen十九 of the unique独特 20 fish species种类 found发现 only
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咸海独有的20种鱼类中,有19种
07:35
in the Aral咸海 Sea are now wiped off the face面对 of the Earth地球.
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已在地球上消失踪影
07:38
This is an environmental环境的 disaster灾害 writ令状 large.
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这是一场环境大浩劫
07:40
But let's bring带来 it home.
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我们试着深入了解一下
07:42
This is a picture图片 that Al Gore血块 gave me a few少数 years年份 ago
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这是几年前戈尔
(美国前副总统)给我的一张照片
07:45
that he took when he was in the Soviet苏联 Union联盟
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他于苏联拍摄的景观
07:46
a long, long time ago,
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很久很久以前
07:48
showing展示 the fishing钓鱼 fleets车队 of the Aral咸海 Sea.
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显示搁浅于咸海中的渔船队
07:51
You see the canal运河 they dug?
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你看见他们挖的水道吗?
07:53
They were so desperate殊死 to try to, kind of, float浮动 the boats into
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他们费尽心力,试着让船漂浮在
07:55
the remaining其余 pools of water, but they finally最后 had to give up
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仅剩的湖水中,但他们最后不得不放弃
07:57
because the piers码头 and the moorings系泊 simply只是 couldn't不能
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因为码头和停泊处的开凿
08:00
keep up with the retreating撤退 shoreline海岸线.
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无法跟上海岸线倒退的速度
08:02
I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future未来
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我不知道你们的想法,但我担心未来
08:04
archaeologists考古学家 will dig this up and write stories故事 about
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考古学家会挖出
这些东西,将这个时代的情形
08:06
our time in history历史, and wonder奇迹, "What were you thinking思维?"
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写入历史
疑惑地想,“你们到底在想什么?”
08:09
Well, that's the future未来 we have to look forward前锋 to.
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好,这就是我们即将面临的未来
08:12
We already已经 use about 50 percent百分 of the Earth's地球 fresh新鲜 water
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我们已使用了地球上现有的 50% 淡水
08:15
that's sustainable可持续发展, and agriculture农业 alone单独
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光是农业部分
08:17
is 70 percent百分 of that.
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就占用了 70%
08:20
So we use a lot of water, a lot of land土地 for agriculture农业.
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因此我们在农业上消耗许多水源和土地
08:23
We also use a lot of the atmosphere大气层 for agriculture农业.
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我们也在农业上消耗许多大气
08:26
Usually平时 when we think about the atmosphere大气层,
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当我们谈到大气时
08:29
we think about climate气候 change更改 and greenhouse温室 gases气体,
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通常会联想到气候变迁和温室气体
08:31
and mostly大多 around energy能源,
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大多与能源有关
08:33
but it turns out agriculture农业 is one of the biggest最大 emitters发射器
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但事实上,农业亦是
08:36
of greenhouse温室 gases气体 too.
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温室气体最大来源之一
08:38
If you look at carbon dioxide二氧化碳 from
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2056
如果考虑焚烧热带雨林
08:40
burning燃烧 tropical热带 rainforest雨林,
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所产生的二氧化碳
08:42
or methane甲烷 coming未来 from cows奶牛 and rice白饭,
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或牛群和稻米所产生的甲烷
08:45
or nitrous亚硝酸 oxide氧化 from too many许多 fertilizers化肥,
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或大量肥料所产生的一氧化二氮
08:48
it turns out agriculture农业 is 30 percent百分 of the greenhouse温室
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事实上,排放至大气层的温室气体
08:51
gases气体 going into the atmosphere大气层 from human人的 activity活动.
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30% 来自农业,以人类活动来说
08:54
That's more than all our transportation运输.
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远大于所有交通工具
08:55
It's more than all our electricity电力.
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远大于所有电力设施
08:57
It's more than all other manufacturing制造业, in fact事实.
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事实上远大于所有制造业的排放量
09:00
It's the single largest最大 emitter发射器 of greenhouse温室 gases气体
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这是最大的单一温室气体来源
09:03
of any human人的 activity活动 in the world世界.
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以所有人类活动来说
09:05
And yet然而, we don't talk about it very much.
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然而我们很少提及这一点
09:08
So we have this incredible难以置信 presence存在 today今天 of agriculture农业
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因此我们目前面临的惊人事实是
09:11
dominating主导 our planet行星,
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农业主宰我们的地球
09:13
whether是否 it's 40 percent百分 of our land土地 surface表面,
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无论是占用地表 40% 的土地
09:15
70 percent百分 of the water we use,
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消耗 70% 的水源
09:17
30 percent百分 of our greenhouse温室 gas加油站 emissions排放.
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产生 30% 的温室气体排放量
09:20
We've我们已经 doubled翻倍 the flows流动 of nitrogen and phosphorus
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我们使逸散到全球环境中的氮、磷量倍增
09:23
around the world世界 simply只是 by using运用 fertilizers化肥,
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仅因为肥料的使用
09:25
causing造成 huge巨大 problems问题 of water quality质量 from rivers河流,
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导致河川、湖泊
09:28
lakes湖泊, and even oceans海洋, and it's also the single biggest最大
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甚至海洋的水质产生严重问题,这也是导致
09:31
driver司机 of biodiversity生物多样性 loss失利.
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生物多样性丧失的最大因素
09:34
So without a doubt怀疑, agriculture农业 is
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因此,毫无疑问地,农业是
09:36
the single most powerful强大 force unleashed如虎添翼 on this planet行星
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影响地球环境最大的力量
09:39
since以来 the end结束 of the ice age年龄. No question.
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自从冰河期结束后,毫无疑问
09:42
And it rivals对手 climate气候 change更改 in importance重要性.
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它的重要性和气候变迁不相上下
09:45
And they're both happening事件 at the same相同 time.
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两种危机同时发生
09:48
But what's really important重要 here to remember记得 is that
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但我们必须记住十分重要的一点
09:50
it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's农业的 a bad thing.
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农业并非一无是处,它并非坏事
09:54
In fact事实, we completely全然 depend依靠 on it.
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事实上我们的生存完全仰赖它
09:56
It's not optional可选的. It's not a luxury豪华. It's an absolute绝对 necessity必要性.
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它并非可有可无之事
并非奢侈品,而是不可或缺的需求
10:00
We have to provide提供 food餐饮 and feed饲料 and, yeah,
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我们必须生产粮食、饲料
10:02
fiber纤维 and even biofuels生物燃料 to something like seven billion十亿 people
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纤维、甚至生物燃料
供应世上70亿人口所需
10:06
in the world世界 today今天, and if anything,
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总之
10:09
we're going to have the demands需要 on agriculture农业
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未来农业需求
10:11
increase增加 into the future未来. It's not going to go away.
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将逐渐增加,这个需求不会消失
10:14
It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly主要 because of
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只会与日俱增,主要原因在于
10:16
growing生长 population人口. We're seven billion十亿 people today今天
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人口成长,目前地球上有70亿人口
10:19
heading标题 towards at least最小 nine,
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逐渐朝90亿大关迈进
10:21
probably大概 nine and a half before we're doneDONE.
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我们离开人世前,或许将成长为95亿人口
10:24
More importantly重要的, changing改变 diets饮食.
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更重要的是饮食结构的改变
10:26
As the world世界 becomes wealthier富裕 as well as more populous人口稠密,
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随着世界更加富裕、人口逐渐增加
10:29
we're seeing眼看 increases增加 in dietary膳食 consumption消费 of meat,
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我们发现饮食中的肉类消耗与日俱增
10:32
which哪一个 take a lot more resources资源 than a vegetarian diet饮食 does.
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它所消耗的资源远大于蔬菜
10:36
So more people, eating more stuff东东, and richer更丰富 stuff东东,
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因此人口增加
消耗更多粮食、更多资源
10:40
and of course课程 having an energy能源 crisis危机 at the same相同 time,
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当然同时导致能源危机的发生
10:43
where we have to replace更换 oil with other energy能源 sources来源
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我们必须以其它能源取代石油
10:46
that will ultimately最终 have to include包括 some kinds of biofuels生物燃料
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最终将必须包括某种生物燃料
10:49
and bio-energy生物能源 sources来源.
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和生质能源
10:51
So you put these together一起. It's really hard to see
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因此,考虑这一切因素,实在很难想象
10:53
how we're going to get to the rest休息 of the century世纪
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我们如何撑过这个世纪
10:56
without at least最小 doubling加倍 global全球 agricultural农业的 production生产.
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如果无法使全球农产量倍增
11:00
Well, how are we going to do this? How are going to
244
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1949
好,我们如何达成这个目标?
11:02
double global全球 ag股份公司 production生产 around the world世界?
245
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如何使全球农产量倍增?
11:05
Well, we could try to farm农场 more land土地.
246
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好,我们可以试着开垦更多土地
11:08
This is an analysis分析 we've我们已经 doneDONE, where on the left is where
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这是我们所做的分析,左边是
11:10
the crops作物 are today今天, on the right is where they could be
248
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目前的农业用地,右边是
11:14
based基于 on soils土壤 and climate气候, assuming假设 climate气候 change更改
249
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2948
根据土质和气候估算的
潜在农业用地,假设气候变迁
11:17
doesn't disrupt破坏 too much of this,
250
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1841
对此不会产生太大影响
11:19
which哪一个 is not a good assumption假设.
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这并非适当的假设
11:20
We could farm农场 more land土地, but the problem问题 is
252
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2189
我们可以开垦更多土地,但问题是
11:23
the remaining其余 lands土地 are in sensitive敏感 areas.
253
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目前所剩的土地位于敏感区域
11:26
They have a lot of biodiversity生物多样性, a lot of carbon,
254
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2038
其中存在庞大的生物多样性和大量碳资源
11:28
things we want to protect保护.
255
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2434
这是我们想保护的资源
11:30
So we could grow增长 more food餐饮 by expanding扩大 farmland农田,
256
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2824
因此我们可藉由扩展农地生产更多粮食
11:33
but we'd星期三 better not,
257
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1318
但最好别这么做
11:34
because it's ecologically生态 a very, very dangerous危险 thing to do.
258
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3666
因为这对生态来说十分危险
11:38
Instead代替, we maybe want to freeze冻结 the footprint脚印
259
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2384
此外,我们或许希望农业碳足迹不再攀升
11:40
of agriculture农业 and farm农场 the lands土地 we have better.
260
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3785
以更佳方式利用土地
11:44
This is work that we're doing to try to highlight突出 places地方
261
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2400
这张图是我们试着标出某些
11:46
in the world世界 where we could improve提高 yields产量
262
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我们可提高农产量的地区
11:49
without harming汉宁波 the environment环境.
263
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2266
在不损害环境的前提下
11:51
The green绿色 areas here show显示 where corn玉米 yields产量,
264
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2401
绿色部分代表玉米产区
11:54
just showing展示 corn玉米 as an example,
265
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2150
显示以玉米来说
11:56
are already已经 really high, probably大概 the maximum最大值 you could
266
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2601
目前产量已相当高的地区,或许是目前世上
11:58
find on Earth地球 today今天 for that climate气候 and soil,
267
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2878
产量最高的地区,以气候和土质来说
12:01
but the brown棕色 areas and yellow黄色 areas are places地方 where
268
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2351
但咖啡色和黄色部份是
12:04
we're only getting得到 maybe 20 or 30 percent百分 of the yield产量
269
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2514
仅可获得 20% 或 30%
12:06
you should be able能够 to get.
270
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1340
产量的地区
12:08
You see a lot of this in Africa非洲, even Latin拉丁 America美国,
271
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2318
你看见大部份位于非洲,甚至拉丁美洲
12:10
but interestingly有趣, Eastern Europe欧洲, where Soviet苏联 Union联盟
272
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2860
但令人感兴趣的是东欧,它曾经是苏联
12:13
and Eastern Bloc集团 countries国家 used to be,
273
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2241
与东欧共产国家所在地
12:15
is still a mess食堂 agriculturally农业.
274
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2224
农业发展仍十分落后
12:17
Now, this would require要求 nutrients营养成分 and water.
275
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2633
现在,这片区域需要养份和水源
12:20
It's going to either be organic有机 or conventional常规
276
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2133
需藉由有机或传统耕作方式
12:22
or some mix混合 of the two to deliver交付 that.
277
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1813
或两者混合来供应这一切
12:24
Plants植物 need water and nutrients营养成分.
278
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2165
植物需要水和养份
12:26
But we can do this, and there are opportunities机会 to make this work.
279
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3208
但我们能做到这一点,我们有成功的机会
12:29
But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive敏感
280
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2280
但我们必须以某种
12:31
to meeting会议 the food餐饮 security安全 needs需求 of the future未来
281
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2609
兼顾未来粮食需求
12:34
and the environmental环境的 security安全 needs需求 of the future未来.
282
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3263
及未来环境安全的方式进行
12:37
We have to figure数字 out how to make this tradeoff交易 between之间
283
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3014
我们必须找出一个权衡之计
12:40
growing生长 food餐饮 and having a healthy健康 environment环境 work better.
284
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3709
使粮食生产与环境健康相辅相成
12:44
Right now, it's kind of an all-or-nothing全有或全无 proposition主张.
285
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2530
现在我们面临两难的情况
12:47
We can grow增长 food餐饮 in the background背景 --
286
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1962
我们可以种植粮食-
12:49
that's a soybean黄豆 field领域
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如背景中的黄豆田
12:50
and in this flower diagram, it shows节目 we grow增长 a lot of food餐饮,
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这个花朵型图表显示我们种植许多作物
12:53
but we don't have a lot clean清洁 water, we're not storing存储
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但缺乏大量洁净水源,我们没有
12:56
a lot of carbon, we don't have a lot of biodiversity生物多样性.
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庞大的碳资源和生物多样性
12:59
In the foreground前景, we have this prairie草原
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拥有照片中的大草原
13:01
that's wonderful精彩 from the environmental环境的 side,
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是件好事,以环境角度来看
13:02
but you can't eat anything. What's there to eat?
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但你无法藉此填饱肚子,没有可吃的东西
13:05
We need to figure数字 out how to bring带来 both of those together一起
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我们必须找出两全其美的
13:08
into a new kind of agriculture农业 that brings带来 them all together一起.
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新型耕作方式,使两者相辅相成
13:12
Now, when I talk about this, people often经常 tell me,
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现在,当我谈到这一点时,人们总是说
13:14
"Well, isn't blank空白 the answer回答?" -- organic有机 food餐饮,
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“嗯,不是已有解决之道?” -有机食物
13:17
local本地 food餐饮, GMOs转基因生物, new trade贸易 subsidies补贴, new farm农场 bills票据 --
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当地食材、基因改造作物
新贸易补贴法案、新农业法案-
13:22
and yeah, we have a lot of good ideas思路 here,
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确实,我们拥有许多好方法
13:25
but not any one of these is a silver bullet子弹.
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但没有一个是银弹(解决一切的方案)
13:28
In fact事实, what I think they are is more like silver buckshot巴克肖特.
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事实上,我更希望解决之道是银猎枪弹
13:31
And I love silver buckshot巴克肖特. You put it together一起
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我喜爱银猎枪弹, 结合所有方法
13:34
and you've got something really powerful强大,
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得到十分强大的力量
13:36
but we need to put them together一起.
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但我们必须将它们彼此结合
13:38
So what we have to do, I think, is invent发明 a new kind
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因此我认为,我们必须做的是发明一种
13:41
of agriculture农业 that blends共混物 the best最好 ideas思路
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新型农业,同时满足
13:43
of commercial广告 agriculture农业 and the green绿色 revolution革命
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商业性农业和绿色革命需求
13:47
with the best最好 ideas思路 of organic有机 farming农业 and local本地 food餐饮
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使有机农业、当地食材
13:50
and the best最好 ideas思路 of environmental环境的 conservation保护,
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和环境保护形成最佳结合
13:54
not to have them fighting战斗 each other but to have them
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使它们不至于彼此冲突,而是使它们
13:55
collaborating合作 together一起 to form形成 a new kind of agriculture农业,
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相辅相成地形成一种新型农业
13:59
something I call "terracultureterraculture," or farming农业 for a whole整个 planet行星.
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我称之为“terraculture”,或全球耕作
14:04
Now, having this conversation会话 has been really hard,
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现在,进行这样的沟通十分困难
14:07
and we've我们已经 been trying very hard to bring带来 these key points
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我们费尽心力地向大众传播这个重要观点
14:09
to people to reduce减少 the controversy争议,
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减少争议
14:11
to increase增加 the collaboration合作.
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促进合作
14:13
I want to show显示 you a short video视频 that does kind of show显示
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我想展示一段短片,让你们确实了解
14:15
our efforts努力 right now to bring带来 these sides双方 together一起
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我们目前所做的努力,使大家拥有
14:18
into a single conversation会话. So let me show显示 you that.
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相同的理念,请看影片
14:21
(Music音乐)
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(音乐)
14:25
("Institute研究所 on the Environment环境, University大学 of Minnesota明尼苏达: Driven驱动 to Discover发现")
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明尼苏达大学环境研究所:致力探索
14:29
(Music音乐)
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(音乐)
14:30
("The world世界 population人口 is growing生长
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全球人口
14:32
by 75 million百万 people each year.
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每年增加7500万
14:35
That's almost几乎 the size尺寸 of Germany德国.
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几乎相当于德国总人口
14:37
Today今天, we're nearing接近 7 billion十亿 people.
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目前全球人口将近70亿
14:40
At this rate, we'll reach达到 9 billion十亿 people by 2040.
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以这样的速率增长
2040年全球将拥有90亿人口
14:43
And we all need food餐饮.
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每个人都需要粮食
14:45
But how?
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但从何而来?
14:46
How do we feed饲料 a growing生长 world世界 without destroying销毁 the planet行星?
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我们该如何喂饱
逐渐增长的人口,而不对地球造成破坏?
14:49
We already已经 know climate气候 change更改 is a big problem问题.
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我们已知气候变迁是个大问题
14:52
But it's not the only problem问题.
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但它并非唯一的问题
14:53
We need to face面对 'the“在 other inconvenient不方便 truth真相.'
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我们必须面对“另一个棘手的事实”
14:56
A global全球 crisis危机 in agriculture农业.
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全球农业危机
14:59
Population人口 growth发展 + meat consumption消费 + dairy乳制品 consumption消费 + energy能源 costs成本 + bioenergy生物能源 production生产 = stress强调 on natural自然 resources资源.
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人口成长+肉类消耗+乳类消耗+能源消耗
+生质能源生产=自然资源面临的压力
15:05
More than 40% of Earth's地球 land土地 has been cleared清除 for agriculture农业.
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超过 40% 的地表已开发为农地
15:08
Global全球 croplands农田 cover 16 million百万 km千米².
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2006
全球农地超过1600万平方公里
15:10
That's almost几乎 the size尺寸 of South America美国.
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几乎相当于南美洲面积
15:14
Global全球 pastures牧场 cover 30 million百万 km千米².
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全球牧地超过3000万平方公里
15:15
That's the size尺寸 of Africa非洲.
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相当于非洲面积
15:18
Agriculture农业 uses使用 60 times more land土地 than urban城市的 and suburban郊区的 areas combined结合.
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农业占用面积为都市和郊区总和的60倍
15:22
Irrigation灌溉 is the biggest最大 use of water on the planet行星.
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灌溉消耗的水源为世界之首
15:26
We use 2,800 cubic立方体 kilometers公里 of water on crops作物 every一切 year.
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每年用于灌溉作物的
水量相当于2800立方公里
15:30
That's enough足够 to fill 7,305 Empire帝国 State Buildings房屋 every一切 day.
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足以每天装满7305栋帝国大厦
15:34
Today今天, many许多 large rivers河流 have reduced减少 flows流动.
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目前许多大型河川流量减少
15:37
Some dry up altogether.
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有些早已干涸
15:39
Look at the Aral咸海 Sea, now turned转身 to desert沙漠.
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看看咸海,现在已变成沙漠
15:43
Or the Colorado科罗拉多州 River, which哪一个 no longer flows流动 to the ocean海洋.
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科罗拉多河不再流向大海
15:47
Fertilizers肥料 have more than doubled翻倍 the phosphorus and nitrogen in the environment环境.
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肥料使环境中的磷和氮倍增
15:51
The consequence后果?
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结果如何?
15:52
Widespread广泛 water pollution污染
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造成大范围的水污染
15:54
and massive大规模的 degradation降解 of lakes湖泊 and rivers河流.
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使湖泊及河川水质严重恶化
15:56
Surprisingly出奇, agriculture农业 is the biggest最大 contributor贡献者 to climate气候 change更改.
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令人惊讶的是
农业是造成气候变迁的最大因素
16:00
It generates生成 30% of greenhouse温室 gas加油站 emissions排放.
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30% 的温室气体由农业产生
16:03
That's more than the emissions排放 from all electricity电力 and industry行业,
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排放量超过所有电力设施和工业
16:06
or from all the world's世界 planes飞机, trains火车 and automobiles汽车.
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或全球飞机、火车和汽车的排放量
16:09
Most agricultural农业的 emissions排放 come from tropical热带 deforestation森林砍伐,
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大部份农业排放量来自于热带树林的砍伐
16:11
methane甲烷 from animals动物 and rice白饭 fields领域,
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动物和稻田产生的甲烷
16:12
and nitrous亚硝酸 oxide氧化 from over-fertilizing过度施肥.
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过量施肥产生的一氧化二氮
16:14
There is nothing we do that transforms变换 the world世界 more than agriculture农业.
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农业是改变世界的最大因素
16:17
And there's nothing we do that is more crucial关键 to our survival生存.
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我们的做法是影响人类生存的关键
16:21
Here's这里的 the dilemma困境...
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我们面临的困境是…
16:22
As the world世界 grows成长 by several一些 billion十亿 more people,
363
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4355
当全球人口增加数十亿时
16:27
We'll need to double, maybe even triple三倍, global全球 food餐饮 production生产.
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我们需要两倍、甚至三倍的粮食产量
16:31
So where do we go from here?
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我们将何去何从?
16:33
We need a bigger conversation会话, an international国际 dialogue对话.
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我们必须进行
更大规模的沟通、全球性的对话
16:36
We need to invest投资 in real真实 solutions解决方案:
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我们必须采取真正的解决之道:
16:37
incentives奖励 for farmers农民, precision精确 agriculture农业, new crop作物 varieties品种, drip irrigation灌溉,
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鼓励农民、精致农业
新型作物、滴水灌溉系统
16:42
gray灰色 water recycling回收, better tillage耕作 practices做法, smarter聪明 diets饮食.
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废水回收利用
更佳的耕作方式、更睿智的饮食型态
16:45
We need everyone大家 at the table.
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我们需要所有人共同参与
16:48
Advocates倡导者 of commercial广告 agriculture农业,
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提倡商业性农业
16:49
environmental环境的 conservation保护,
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环境保护
16:51
and organic有机 farming农业...
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及有机耕作…
16:52
must必须 work together一起.
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2035
必须同时进行
16:54
There is no single solution.
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这个困境没有单一解决方案
16:56
We need collaboration合作,
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我们必须携手合作
16:57
imagination想像力,
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发挥想象力
16:59
determination决心,
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778
下定决心
17:00
because failure失败 is not an option选项.
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因为我们没有失败的余地
17:03
How do we feed饲料 the world世界 without destroying销毁 it?
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如何在不破坏地球的情况下喂饱全世界?
17:07
Yeah, so we face面对 one of the greatest最大 grand盛大 challenges挑战
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因此我们正面临人类历史中
17:10
in all of human人的 history历史 today今天:
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最大的挑战之一:
17:12
the need to feed饲料 nine billion十亿 people
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满足90亿人口的粮食需求
17:15
and do so sustainably可持续 and equitably公平 and justly公正地,
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3754
藉由稳定、公平、公正的方式
17:18
at the same相同 time protecting保护 our planet行星
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同时保护我们的地球
17:20
for this and future未来 generations.
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替这一代及后代子孙
17:23
This is going to be one of the hardest最难 things
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这将是人类历史中
17:24
we ever have doneDONE in human人的 history历史,
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1871
最困难的挑战之一
17:26
and we absolutely绝对 have to get it right,
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我们必须以正确方式进行
17:29
and we have to get it right on our first and only try.
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我们必须把握这仅有的机会
17:34
So thanks谢谢 very much. (Applause掌声)
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十分感谢(掌声)
Translated by illusion Hung
Reviewed by Psycho Decoder

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Foley - Professor
Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet.

Why you should listen

Dr. Jonathan Foley focusses on the complex relationship between global environmental systems and human civilization, using computer models to analyze changes in land use, ecosystems and resources around the world. After 15 years at the University of Wisconsin, Foley is now a professor and McKnight Presidential Chair in the Department of Ecology and director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota.

More profile about the speaker
Jonathan Foley | Speaker | TED.com