ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tali Sharot - Cognitive neuroscientist
Tali Sharot studies why our brains are biased toward optimism.

Why you should listen

Optimism bias is the belief that the future will be better, much better, than the past or present. And most of us display this bias. Neuroscientist Tali Sharot wants to know why: What is it about our brains that makes us overestimate the positive? She explores the question in her book The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain

In the book (and a 2011 TIME magazine cover story), she reviewed findings from both social science and neuroscience that point to an interesting conclusion: "our brains aren't just stamped by the past. They are constantly being shaped by the future." In her own work, she's interested in how our natural optimism actually shapes what we remember, and her interesting range of papers encompasses behavioral research (how likely we are to misremember major events) as well as medical findings -- like searching for the places in the brain where optimism lives. Sharot is a faculty member of the Department of Cognitive, Perceptual and Brain Sciences at University College London.

 

More profile about the speaker
Tali Sharot | Speaker | TED.com
TED2012

Tali Sharot: The optimism bias

Tali Sharot: 乐观的偏见

Filmed:
2,387,106 views

我们是否生来就乐观有余而现实不足?Tali Sharot与我们分享的最新研究表明:人类的大脑更倾向于接受乐观的信息,而这样的特点既对人有益又十分危险。
- Cognitive neuroscientist
Tali Sharot studies why our brains are biased toward optimism. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to talk to you about optimism乐观 --
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今天我讲演的主题是乐观——
00:19
or more precisely恰恰, the optimism乐观 bias偏压.
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准确的说,乐观的偏见。
00:21
It's a cognitive认知 illusion错觉
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过去的几年中
00:23
that we've我们已经 been studying研究 in my lab实验室 for the past过去 few少数 years年份,
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我们都在实验室中研究这种认知错觉,
00:26
and 80 percent百分 of us have it.
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百分之八十的人都有这种乐观偏见。
00:28
It's our tendency趋势 to overestimate估计过高
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我们倾向于高估
00:30
our likelihood可能性 of experiencing经历 good events事件 in our lives生活
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生活中发生好事的几率
00:33
and underestimate低估 our likelihood可能性 of experiencing经历 bad events事件.
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低估坏事发生的几率。
00:37
So we underestimate低估 our likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症,
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所以我们会低估我们患上癌症,
00:40
being存在 in a car汽车 accident事故.
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遭遇车祸的几率。
00:42
We overestimate估计过高 our longevity长寿, our career事业 prospects前途.
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在寿命和事业前景上,我们则会过于乐观。
00:45
In short, we're more optimistic乐观 than realistic实际,
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简而言之,我们过于乐观,不够现实
00:48
but we are oblivious浑然不觉 to the fact事实.
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而且还浑然不觉。
00:51
Take marriage婚姻 for example.
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以婚姻为例。
00:53
In the Western西 world世界, divorce离婚 rates利率 are about 40 percent百分.
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在西方世界,离婚率大约是百分之四十。
00:56
That means手段 that out of five married已婚 couples情侣,
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也就是说每五对夫妇中,
01:00
two will end结束 up splitting分裂 their assets资产.
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有两对最终要闹到分割财产。
01:03
But when you ask newlyweds新婚夫妇 about their own拥有 likelihood可能性 of divorce离婚,
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但是如果你问新婚夫妇他们离婚的几率是多少的话,
01:06
they estimate估计 it at zero percent百分.
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他们的估计是百分之零。
01:10
And even divorce离婚 lawyers律师, who should really know better,
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而且就连应该对这个问题有清醒认识的离婚律师
01:13
hugely巨大 underestimate低估 their own拥有 likelihood可能性 of divorce离婚.
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也会严重低估他们自己离婚的几率。
01:17
So it turns out that optimists乐观主义者 are not less likely容易 to divorce离婚,
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实际上乐观主义者离婚的几率并不低,
01:20
but they are more likely容易 to remarry再婚.
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但再婚的几率比较高。
01:23
In the words of Samuel塞缪尔 Johnson约翰逊,
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用Samuel Johnson(英国作家)的话来说,
01:25
"Remarriage再婚 is the triumph胜利 of hope希望 over experience经验."
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“再婚是希望战胜了经验。”
01:29
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:31
So if we're married已婚, we're more likely容易 to have kids孩子.
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结婚之后很可能会生孩子。
01:36
And we all think our kids孩子 will be especially特别 talented天才.
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我们都认为自己的孩子会才华横溢。
01:39
This, by the way, is my two-year-old二十岁 nephew外甥, Guy.
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顺便一提,这是我两岁的侄子Guy。
01:42
And I just want to make it absolutely绝对 clear明确
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我必须强调
01:44
that he's a really bad example of the optimism乐观 bias偏压,
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用他来证明乐观偏见是一个非常糟糕的选择,
01:47
because he is in fact事实 uniquely独特地 talented天才.
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因为事实上他确实拥有与众不同的才华。
01:50
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:51
And I'm not alone单独.
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我不是唯一一个这样想的人。
01:53
Out of four British英国的 people, three said
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四个英国人中有三个表示
01:55
that they were optimistic乐观 about the future未来 of their own拥有 families家庭.
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他们对自己家庭的未来感到乐观。
01:59
That's 75 percent百分.
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也就是百分之七十五。
02:01
But only 30 percent百分 said
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不过只有百分之三十的人表示
02:03
that they thought families家庭 in general一般
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他们认为现在的家庭
02:05
are doing better than a few少数 generations ago.
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比几十年前的家庭过的更好。
02:08
And this is a really important重要 point,
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这一点非常重要,
02:10
because we're optimistic乐观 about ourselves我们自己,
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因为我们对自己,
02:11
we're optimistic乐观 about our kids孩子,
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自己的孩子
02:13
we're optimistic乐观 about our families家庭,
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和自己的家庭都很乐观,
02:15
but we're not so optimistic乐观 about the guy sitting坐在 next下一个 to us,
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然而对于坐在我们旁边的人,我们就没有那么乐观了,
02:18
and we're somewhat有些 pessimistic悲观
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而且我们对他人和国家的命运
02:20
about the fate命运 of our fellow同伴 citizens公民 and the fate命运 of our country国家.
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甚至有些悲观。
02:24
But private私人的 optimism乐观 about our own拥有 personal个人 future未来
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然而这种针对我们个人未来的个人化乐观
02:28
remains遗迹 persistent一贯.
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相当顽固。
02:30
And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically神奇 turn out okay,
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这并不意味着我们认为事情会变魔术一样莫名奇妙的顺利解决。
02:34
but rather that we have the unique独特 ability能力 to make it so.
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我们相信自己拥有取得成功的独特能力。
02:39
Now I'm a scientist科学家, I do experiments实验.
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我是科学家,我做实验。
02:41
So to show显示 you what I mean,
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所以为了说明我的观点,
02:43
I'm going to do an experiment实验 here with you.
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我马上就和你们一起做一个实验。
02:46
So I'm going to give you a list名单 of abilities能力 and characteristics特点,
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我会列出一些能力和性格特点,
02:50
and I want you to think for each of these abilities能力
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我希望你们对照这个清单思考一下
02:53
where you stand relative相对的 to the rest休息 of the population人口.
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自己的每一项能力处于人群中的什么位置。
02:57
The first one is getting得到 along沿 well with others其他.
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第一个是和他人和睦相处。
03:01
Who here believes相信 they're at the bottom底部 25 percent百分?
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认为自己处于最差的百分之二十五的请举手。
03:07
Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.
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好的,一千五百个人里面大概有十个人举手。
03:11
Who believes相信 they're at the top最佳 25 percent百分?
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认为自己处于最好的百分之二十五的呢?
03:15
That's most of us here.
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大多数人都举手了。
03:18
Okay, now do the same相同 for your driving主动 ability能力.
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好的,那再考量一下你的驾驶技术。
03:22
How interesting有趣 are you?
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你有趣吗?
03:25
How attractive有吸引力 are you?
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你迷人吗?
03:28
How honest诚实 are you?
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你诚实吗?
03:31
And finally最后, how modest谦虚 are you?
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最后一个问题,你谦虚吗?
03:36
So most of us put ourselves我们自己 above以上 average平均
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所以多数人都认为自己的大部分能力
03:39
on most of these abilities能力.
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高于平均水平。
03:41
Now this is statistically统计学 impossible不可能.
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但从统计学的角度上来说,这是不可能的。
03:43
We can't all be better than everyone大家 else其他.
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不可能所有人都比其他人优秀。
03:46
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
03:48
But if we believe we're better than the other guy,
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但是如果我们相信自己比别人更优秀,
03:50
well that means手段 that we're more likely容易 to get that promotion提升, to remain married已婚,
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这也就意味着我们认为自己更应该得到升职,婚姻美满,
03:54
because we're more social社会, more interesting有趣.
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因为我们性格更有趣,更善于与人交往。
03:57
And it's a global全球 phenomenon现象.
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这是一个国际性的现象。
03:59
The optimism乐观 bias偏压 has been observed观察到的
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我们可以在来自很多不同国家的人身上
04:02
in many许多 different不同 countries国家 --
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找到乐观偏见——
04:03
in Western西 cultures文化, in non-Western非西方 cultures文化,
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无论他来自西方文化还是非西方文化,
04:06
in females女性 and males男性,
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是男是女,
04:08
in kids孩子, in the elderly老年.
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是孩子还是老人。
04:10
It's quite相当 widespread广泛.
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这种现象相当普遍。
04:11
But the question is, is it good for us?
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然而问题是,乐观偏见对我们有益吗?
04:15
So some people say no.
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有人认为没有好处。
04:17
Some people say the secret秘密 to happiness幸福
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有人认为快乐的秘密就是
04:20
is low expectations期望.
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不要期望太高。
04:23
I think the logic逻辑 goes something like this:
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他们的逻辑大概是这样的:
04:25
If we don't expect期望 greatness伟大,
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如果我们不期待成就什么伟业,
04:27
if we don't expect期望 to find love and be healthy健康 and successful成功,
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不期待找到爱人,身体健康,取得成功,
04:31
well we're not going to be disappointed失望 when these things don't happen发生.
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我们得不到这些东西的时候也不会特别失望。
04:34
And if we're not disappointed失望 when good things don't happen发生,
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如果好事没有到来我们却不失望
04:38
and we're pleasantly愉快 surprised诧异 when they do,
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那么好事发生的时候我们就得到了一个惊喜,
04:40
we will be happy快乐.
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应该很开心。
04:42
So it's a very good theory理论,
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这个理论听起来很有道理,
04:43
but it turns out to be wrong错误 for three reasons原因.
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但其实是错误的,原因有以下三点。
04:46
Number one: Whatever随你 happens发生, whether是否 you succeed成功 or you fail失败,
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第一:无论成功还是失败,
04:51
people with high expectations期望 always feel better.
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期望高的人都更加快乐。
04:55
Because how we feel when we get dumped or win赢得 employee雇员 of the month
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因为无论是失恋还是当选每月员工
04:59
depends依靠 on how we interpret that event事件.
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我们感觉如何取决于我们如何解读这一事件。
05:02
The psychologists心理学家 Margaret玛格丽特 Marshall马歇尔 and John约翰 Brown棕色
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心理学家Margaret Marshall和John Brown
05:06
studied研究 students学生们 with high and low expectations期望.
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完成了一项以期望值各异的学生为对象的研究。
05:09
And they found发现 that when people with high expectations期望 succeed成功,
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他们发现,当拥有高期望值的人成功的时候,
05:13
they attribute属性 that success成功 to their own拥有 traits性状.
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他们认为是自己的能力造就了这样的结果。
05:16
"I'm a genius天才, therefore因此 I got an A,
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“我是天才,所以我得到了A,
05:18
therefore因此 I'll get an A again and again in the future未来."
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因此我以后也会一直得A。“
05:21
When they failed失败, it wasn't because they were dumb,
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失败了也不代表他们愚蠢,
05:24
but because the exam考试 just happened发生 to be unfair不公平.
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不过是考试恰巧不公平而已。
05:27
Next下一个 time they will do better.
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下一次他们一定会考好。
05:29
People with low expectations期望 do the opposite对面.
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期望值低的人的思维正好相反。
05:32
So when they failed失败 it was because they were dumb,
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失败是因为他们笨,
05:35
and when they succeeded成功
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成功则是
05:37
it was because the exam考试 just happened发生 to be really easy简单.
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因为考试恰巧特别简单。
05:40
Next下一个 time reality现实 would catch抓住 up with them.
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下次他们就没这么幸运了。
05:42
So they felt worse更差.
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所以他们的感觉更糟糕。
05:44
Number two: Regardless而不管 of the outcome结果,
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第二:无论结果如何,
05:48
the pure act法案 of anticipation预期 makes品牌 us happy快乐.
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心怀期待的感觉就让我们感到快乐。
05:52
The behavioral行为的 economist经济学家 George乔治 Lowenstein洛温斯坦
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行为经济学家George Lowenstein
05:55
asked students学生们 in his university大学
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请他的学生
05:57
to imagine想像 getting得到 a passionate多情 kiss from a celebrity名人, any celebrity名人.
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想象和一位名人激情接吻,任何名人都可以。
06:01
Then he said, "How much are you willing愿意 to pay工资
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然后他问,”如果立刻就得到
06:04
to get a kiss from a celebrity名人
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和名人接吻的机会
06:06
if the kiss was delivered交付 immediately立即,
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你愿意付多少钱?
06:08
in three hours小时, in 24 hours小时, in three days,
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三小时后呢?二十四小时后呢?三天后呢?
06:13
in one year, in 10 years年份?
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一年后呢?十年后呢?“
06:15
He found发现 that the students学生们 were willing愿意 to pay工资 the most
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他发现,三天后接吻,
06:19
not to get a kiss immediately立即,
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而非立刻接吻,
06:21
but to get a kiss in three days.
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价码最高。
06:24
They were willing愿意 to pay工资 extra额外 in order订购 to wait.
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他们愿意为等待承担额外的费用。
06:28
Now they weren't willing愿意 to wait a year or 10 years年份;
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他们不愿意等一年或者十年;
06:31
no one wants an aging老化 celebrity名人.
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没人希望亲吻一个人老珠黄的名人。
06:32
But three days seemed似乎 to be the optimum最佳 amount.
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不过三天似乎就是最合适的等待时间。
06:37
So why is that?
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为什么呢?
06:39
Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and doneDONE with.
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如果立刻就得到这个吻,美妙的时刻马上就结束了。
06:43
But if you get the kiss in three days,
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如果你三天后才会得到这个吻,
06:45
well that's three days of jittery风声鹤唳 anticipation预期, the thrill颤抖 of the wait.
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这三天你都会因为期待而惴惴不安,因为等待而激动不已。
06:49
The students学生们 wanted that time
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学生们希望能有时间
06:51
to imagine想像 where is it going to happen发生,
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想象接吻的方式
06:53
how is it going to happen发生.
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和发生的场景。
06:55
Anticipation预期 made制作 them happy快乐.
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期待让他们感到快乐。
06:57
This is, by the way, why people prefer比较喜欢 Friday星期五 to Sunday星期日.
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顺便一提,相较于周日人们更喜欢周五也是同样的道理。
07:01
It's a really curious好奇 fact事实,
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这个现象非常有趣,
07:03
because Friday星期五 is a day of work and Sunday星期日 is a day of pleasure乐趣,
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因为周五是工作日,周日是休息日,
07:06
so you'd assume承担 that people will prefer比较喜欢 Sunday星期日,
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所以人们似乎应该更喜欢周日,
07:09
but they don't.
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然而事实却不是这样。
07:11
It's not because they really, really like being存在 in the office办公室
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这并不是因为大家都喜欢呆在办公室里,
07:14
and they can't stand strolling漫步 in the park公园
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不能忍受在公园散步
07:16
or having a lazy brunch早午餐.
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或者享受一顿慵懒的早午餐。
07:17
We know that, because when you ask people
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这一点我们都明白,因为如果你问普通人
07:20
about their ultimate最终 favorite喜爱 day of the week,
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最喜欢一周之中的哪一天,
07:22
surprise, surprise, Saturday星期六 comes in at first,
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不出所料,星期六最受欢迎,
07:25
then Friday星期五, then Sunday星期日.
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其次是周五,再其次才是周日。
07:28
People prefer比较喜欢 Friday星期五
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人们喜欢周五是因为
07:30
because Friday星期五 brings带来 with it the anticipation预期 of the weekend周末 ahead,
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周五会让你对眼前的周末
07:34
all the plans计划 that you have.
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以及你的周末计划充满期待。
07:36
On Sunday星期日, the only thing you can look forward前锋 to
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而周日你所能期待的只有
07:38
is the work week.
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新一周的工作。
07:41
So optimists乐观主义者 are people who expect期望 more kisses in their future未来,
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所以乐观主义者认为未来还有更多的亲吻的机会
07:46
more strolls散步 in the park公园.
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更多在公园里散步的时间。
07:48
And that anticipation预期 enhances提高 their wellbeing福利.
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这种期待会提高他们的生活质量。
07:51
In fact事实, without the optimism乐观 bias偏压,
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事实上,如果没有乐观偏见,
07:54
we would all be slightly depressed郁闷.
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我们都处于轻度抑郁的状态。
07:57
People with mild温和 depression萧条,
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轻度抑郁的人
07:59
they don't have a bias偏压 when they look into the future未来.
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展望未来的时候没有偏见。
08:02
They're actually其实 more realistic实际 than healthy健康 individuals个人.
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事实上,他们比健康的人更加现实。
08:07
But individuals个人 with severe严重 depression萧条,
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但是严重抑郁的人
08:09
they have a pessimistic悲观 bias偏压.
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有悲观偏见。
08:11
So they tend趋向 to expect期望 the future未来
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所以他们眼中的未来
08:13
to be worse更差 than it ends结束 up being存在.
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比实际更糟糕。
08:15
So optimism乐观 changes变化 subjective主观 reality现实.
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因此乐观可能改变主观现实。
08:19
The way we expect期望 the world世界 to be changes变化 the way we see it.
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我们对世界的期待改变我们对世界的看法。
08:22
But it also changes变化 objective目的 reality现实.
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但它也会改变客观现实。
08:26
It acts行为 as a self-fulfilling自我实现 prophecy预言.
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是一种可能因为人们的主观想法而客观实现的预言。
08:28
And that is the third第三 reason原因
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这也就是降低期待不会让你快乐的
08:31
why lowering降低 your expectations期望 will not make you happy快乐.
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第三个原因。
08:34
Controlled受控 experiments实验 have shown显示
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对照试验表明
08:36
that optimism乐观 is not only related有关 to success成功,
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乐观不仅与成功有关,
08:38
it leads引线 to success成功.
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更是成功的诱因。
08:40
Optimism乐观 leads引线 to success成功 in academia学术界 and sports体育 and politics政治.
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在学术界、体坛和政坛,乐观能都带来成功。
08:45
And maybe the most surprising奇怪 benefit效益 of optimism乐观 is health健康.
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也许乐观带来的最出人意料的好处就是健康。
08:50
If we expect期望 the future未来 to be bright,
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对美好未来的期待
08:53
stress强调 and anxiety焦虑 are reduced减少.
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可以舒缓压力、缓解焦虑。
08:56
So all in all, optimism乐观 has lots of benefits好处.
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因此,乐观益处多多。
09:00
But the question that was really confusing扑朔迷离 to me was,
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然而对我来说最令人困惑的问题是
09:03
how do we maintain保持 optimism乐观 in the face面对 of reality现实?
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我们如何在现实面前保持乐观的心态?
09:08
As an neuroscientist神经学家, this was especially特别 confusing扑朔迷离,
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作为一位神经学家这个问题尤其难以理解,
09:11
because according根据 to all the theories理论 out there,
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因为根据现有的理论
09:13
when your expectations期望 are not met会见, you should alter改变 them.
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如果期望没有成真的话,人会做出相应的调整。
09:18
But this is not what we find.
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然而我们的发现却不是这样。
09:19
We asked people to come into our lab实验室
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为了了解这一切的原理
09:23
in order订购 to try and figure数字 out what was going on.
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我们请普通人走进实验室参与实验。
09:26
We asked them to estimate估计 their likelihood可能性
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我们请他们估计自己
09:28
of experiencing经历 different不同 terrible可怕 events事件 in their lives生活.
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在生活中经历各种不幸的几率。
09:31
So, for example, what is your likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症?
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比如,你得癌症的几率是多大?
09:35
And then we told them the average平均 likelihood可能性
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然后我们告诉他,和他各方面条件相似的人
09:37
of someone有人 like them to suffer遭受 these misfortunes不幸.
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经历这种不幸事件的平均几率。
09:40
So cancer癌症, for example, is about 30 percent百分.
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比如说,得癌症的几率是百分之三十。
09:44
And then we asked them again,
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然后我们请他们再次估计自己患病的几率,
09:47
"How likely容易 are you to suffer遭受 from cancer癌症?"
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“你得癌症的几率是多少?”
09:50
What we wanted to know was
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我们希望了解的是
09:52
whether是否 people will take the information信息 that we gave them
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人们是否接受我们给他们的数据
09:55
to change更改 their beliefs信仰.
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并调整他们的想法。
09:57
And indeed确实 they did --
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他们确实这样做了——
09:59
but mostly大多 when the information信息 we gave them
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但主要是在我们给他们的数据优于
10:02
was better than what they expected预期.
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他们自己的估计的情况下。
10:04
So for example,
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因此,比如
10:06
if someone有人 said, "My likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症
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如果人一个人说,“我得癌症的几率
10:09
is about 50 percent百分,"
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大约是百分之五十,”
10:11
and we said, "Hey, good news新闻.
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然而我们告诉他,“嗨,好消息。
10:14
The average平均 likelihood可能性 is only 30 percent百分,"
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平均几率只有百分之三十,”
10:16
the next下一个 time around they would say,
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下一次再问他的时候他会说,
10:18
"Well maybe my likelihood可能性 is about 35 percent百分."
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“那么我患病的几率大约是百分之三十五。”
10:21
So they learned学到了 quickly很快 and efficiently有效率的.
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所以他们快速高效的接受了信息。
10:24
But if someone有人 started开始 off saying,
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但是如果有人开始说,
10:26
"My average平均 likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症 is about 10 percent百分,"
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“我患癌症的几率大约是百分之十,”
10:30
and we said, "Hey, bad news新闻.
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然而我们告诉他,“嗨,坏消息。
10:32
The average平均 likelihood可能性 is about 30 percent百分,"
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平均患病几率是百分之三十,“
10:35
the next下一个 time around they would say,
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第二次被问到的时候他会说,
10:37
"Yep是的. Still think it's about 11 percent百分."
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“好。我还是觉得在百分之十一左右。”
10:41
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:42
So it's not that they didn't learn学习 at all -- they did --
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因此他们并不是完全不接受新信息——
10:46
but much, much less than when we gave them
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他们只是更愿意接受
10:48
positive information信息 about the future未来.
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有关未来的积极乐观的信息。
10:50
And it's not that they didn't remember记得 the numbers数字 that we gave them;
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他们没有忘掉我们提供的数据;
10:53
everyone大家 remembers记得 that the average平均 likelihood可能性 of cancer癌症
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每个人都记得患癌症的平均几率是
10:56
is about 30 percent百分
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百分之三十左右
10:58
and the average平均 likelihood可能性 of divorce离婚 is about 40 percent百分.
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离婚率是百分之四十左右。
11:01
But they didn't think that those numbers数字 were related有关 to them.
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但他们不认为这些数据与自己有关。
11:05
What this means手段 is that warning警告 signs迹象 such这样 as these
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这意味着,此类预警信号的
11:10
may可能 only have limited有限 impact碰撞.
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功效有限。
11:12
Yes, smoking抽烟 kills杀死, but mostly大多 it kills杀死 the other guy.
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是的,香烟是一大杀手,但只有其他人会因抽烟丧命。
11:17
What I wanted to know was
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我想了解的是
11:18
what was going on inside the human人的 brain
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人脑中到底发生了什么
11:21
that prevented防止 us from taking服用 these warning警告 signs迹象 personally亲自.
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以至于我们无法把预警信号与自身联系起来。
11:25
But at the same相同 time,
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但是
11:27
when we hear that the housing住房 market市场 is hopeful有希望,
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如果我们听说房地产市场很火爆,
11:29
we think, "Oh, my house is definitely无疑 going to double in price价钱."
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我们就会认为:“哦,我房子的价值肯定会翻番。”
11:33
To try and figure数字 that out,
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为了了解其中的原理
11:35
I asked the participants参与者 in the experiment实验
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我请实验参与者
11:38
to lie谎言 in a brain imaging成像 scanner扫描器.
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躺在脑部成像扫描仪中。
11:40
It looks容貌 like this.
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看起来就像这样。
11:41
And using运用 a method方法 called functional实用 MRIMRI,
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通过功能性核磁成像,
11:44
we were able能够 to identify鉴定 regions地区 in the brain
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我们可以而找到大脑中
11:48
that were responding响应 to positive information信息.
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对积极信息作出反应的区域。
11:51
One of these regions地区 is called the left inferior frontal前面的 gyrus.
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左额下回就是这种区域之一。
11:54
So if someone有人 said, "My likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症 is 50 percent百分,"
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因此如果有人说,“我患癌症的几率是百分之五十,”
11:58
and we said, "Hey, good news新闻.
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而我们告诉他,“嗨,好消息。
12:00
Average平均 likelihood可能性 is 30 percent百分,"
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平均几率是百分之三会,“
12:02
the left inferior frontal前面的 gyrus would respond响应 fiercely激烈.
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左额下回就会有明显的反应。
12:06
And it didn't matter if you're an extreme极端 optimist乐天派, a mild温和 optimist乐天派
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无论你是极端乐观、一般乐观
12:10
or slightly pessimistic悲观,
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还是轻度悲观,
12:12
everyone's大家的 left inferior frontal前面的 gyrus
250
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无论是你是巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)还是伍迪·艾伦(Woody Allen),
12:15
was functioning功能 perfectly完美 well,
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每个人的左额下回
12:17
whether是否 you're Barack巴拉克 Obama奥巴马 or Woody伍迪 Allen艾伦.
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都运转正常。
12:20
On the other side of the brain,
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在大脑的另外一侧,
12:21
the right inferior frontal前面的 gyrus was responding响应 to bad news新闻.
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右额下回负责对坏消息做出反应。
12:26
And here's这里的 the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job工作.
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问题就是处在这里:右额下回没能尽忠职守。
12:30
The more optimistic乐观 you were,
256
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你越乐观,
12:32
the less likely容易 this region地区 was
257
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这一区域
12:34
to respond响应 to unexpected意外 negative information信息.
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对意外的消极信息的反应就越迟钝。
12:37
And if your brain is failing失败
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如果你的大脑
12:40
at integrating整合 bad news新闻 about the future未来,
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无法接受有关未来的坏消息,
12:43
you will constantly经常 leave离开 your rose-tinted玫瑰色 spectacles眼镜 on.
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你对世界的看法一直都会比实际美好。
12:48
So we wanted to know, could we change更改 this?
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因此,我们希望进一步了解,我们可以改变这种现象吗?
12:53
Could we alter改变 people's人们 optimism乐观 bias偏压
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我们时候可以通过干涉这些区域的脑部活动
12:56
by interfering干扰 with the brain activity活动 in these regions地区?
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来改变人们的乐观偏见呢?
13:00
And there's a way for us to do that.
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我们确实有办法做到。
13:03
This is my collaborator合作者 Ryota良太 Kanai金井.
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这是我的合作伙伴Ryota Kanai。
13:06
And what he's doing is he's passing通过 a small magnetic磁性 pulse脉冲
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他正在将微小的磁脉冲
13:10
through通过 the skull头骨 of the participant参加者 in our study研究
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通过研究参与者的头骨
13:12
into their inferior frontal前面的 gyrus.
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传达到他们的额下回。
13:14
And by doing that,
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这样做
13:16
he's interfering干扰 with the activity活动 of this brain region地区
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他可以影响该区域的脑活动
13:19
for about half an hour小时.
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大约半个小时。
13:20
After that everything goes back to normal正常, I assure保证 you.
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此后一切恢复正常,我保证。
13:23
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:25
So let's see what happens发生.
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现在我们来看看接下来发生了什么。
13:28
First of all, I'm going to show显示 you
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首先,这是
13:30
the average平均 amount of bias偏压 that we see.
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一般的偏见水平。
13:33
So if I was to test测试 all of you now,
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如果我现场测试你们,
13:36
this is the amount that you would learn学习
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你们接受的好消息
13:37
more from good news新闻 relative相对的 to bad news新闻.
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就比坏消息多这么多。
13:41
Now we interfere干扰 with the region地区
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现在我们干扰
13:43
that we found发现 to integrate整合 negative information信息 in this task任务,
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接受消极信息的区域
13:48
and the optimism乐观 bias偏压 grew成长 even larger.
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乐观偏见就变得更加严重。
13:51
We made制作 people more biased in the way that they process处理 information信息.
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我们加重了人们处理信息时的偏见。
13:57
Then we interfered干扰 with the brain region地区
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然后我们干扰
13:59
that we found发现 to integrate整合 good news新闻 in this task任务,
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接受好消息的区域,
14:03
and the optimism乐观 bias偏压 disappeared消失.
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随后乐观偏见就消失了。
14:07
We were quite相当 amazed吃惊 by these results结果
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这样的结果让我们十分震惊
14:09
because we were able能够 to eliminate消除
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因为我们可以去除
14:12
a deep-rooted刻骨 bias偏压 in humans人类.
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一种根深蒂固的人类偏见。
14:15
And at this point we stopped停止 and we asked ourselves我们自己,
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至此我们停下了脚步并扪心自问,
14:20
would we want to shatter打碎 the optimism乐观 illusion错觉 into tiny little bits?
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将乐观偏见彻底摧毁是一件好事吗?
14:25
If we could do that, would we want to take people's人们 optimism乐观 bias偏压 away?
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如果可以实现,我们要夺走人们的乐观偏见吗?
14:30
Well I've already已经 told you about all of the benefits好处 of the optimism乐观 bias偏压,
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我已经向你们介绍了乐观偏见的种种好处,
14:34
which哪一个 probably大概 makes品牌 you want to hold保持 onto it for dear life.
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你们可能觉得它不可或缺。
14:39
But there are, of course课程, pitfalls陷阱,
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当然,乐观偏见也有它的缺陷,
14:41
and it would be really foolish of us to ignore忽视 them.
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而且忽略这些缺陷是十分不明智的。
14:44
Take for example this email电子邮件 I recieved收到
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比如,一位来自加州的消防员
14:47
from a firefighter消防队员 here in California加州.
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给我发来这样一封电子邮件。
14:50
He says, "Fatality死亡事故 investigations调查 for firefighters消防员
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他说,”针对消防员的死伤调查
14:53
often经常 include包括 'We'我们 didn't think the fire was going to do that,'
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常有这样的记述‘我们没有想到火灾中会出现这种情况,’
14:58
even when all of the available可得到 information信息
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然而事实上根据当时已有的信息
15:00
was there to make safe安全 decisions决定."
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已经可以做出安全的决定了。“
15:02
This captain队长 is going to use our findings发现 on the optimism乐观 bias偏压
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这位队长希望用我们有关乐观偏见的研究结果
15:06
to try to explain说明 to the firefighters消防员
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向消防员们解释
15:08
why they think the way they do,
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他们思考模式背后的原理,
15:10
to make them acutely急性 aware知道的 of this very optimistic乐观 bias偏压 in humans人类.
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让他们意识到人类的这种乐观偏见。
15:18
So unrealistic不切实际 optimism乐观 can lead to risky有风险 behavior行为,
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因此不现实的乐观可能导致高风险行为、
15:23
to financial金融 collapse坍方, to faulty不完善的 planning规划.
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经济崩溃、计划缺陷。
15:26
The British英国的 government政府, for example,
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例如,英国政府
15:28
has acknowledged承认 that the optimism乐观 bias偏压
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承认乐观偏见
15:31
can make individuals个人 more likely容易
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会让人
15:34
to underestimate低估 the costs成本 and durations持续时间 of projects项目.
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低估各种项目所需耗费的金钱和时间。
15:38
So they have adjusted调整 the 2012 Olympic奥林匹克 budget预算
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他们考虑乐观偏见以后
15:43
for the optimism乐观 bias偏压.
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调整了2012年奥运会的预算。
15:45
My friend朋友 who's谁是 getting得到 married已婚 in a few少数 weeks
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我的一位朋友几周以后就要结婚了
15:47
has doneDONE the same相同 for his wedding婚礼 budget预算.
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他也因为同样的原因调整了婚礼的预算。
15:49
And by the way, when I asked him about his own拥有 likelihood可能性 of divorce离婚,
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顺便一提,当我问他,他离婚的几率大概是多少时,
15:52
he said he was quite相当 sure it was zero percent百分.
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他说他坚定的相信是百分之零。
15:56
So what we would really like to do,
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所以我们所真正需要的
15:58
is we would like to protect保护 ourselves我们自己 from the dangers危险 of optimism乐观,
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是在不成为乐观偏见的受害者的同时,
16:03
but at the same相同 time remain hopeful有希望,
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保持内心充满希望的状态,
16:06
benefiting受益 from the many许多 fruits水果 of optimism乐观.
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享受乐观带来的种种益处。
16:09
And I believe there's a way for us to do that.
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我相信我们可以做到这一点。
16:11
The key here really is knowledge知识.
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知识是这个问题的关键。
16:14
We're not born天生 with an innate先天 understanding理解 of our biases偏见.
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我们不是生来就对人类的种种偏见有深入的认识,
16:17
These have to be identified确定 by scientific科学 investigation调查.
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科学研究可以帮助我们识别这些偏见。
16:21
But the good news新闻 is that becoming变得 aware知道的 of the optimism乐观 bias偏压
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不过好消息是,认识乐观偏见
16:25
does not shatter打碎 the illusion错觉.
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并不会破坏这种错觉。
16:27
It's like visual视觉 illusions幻想,
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就像视觉错觉一样,
16:28
in which哪一个 understanding理解 them does not make them go away.
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明白原理并不会消除错觉。
16:32
And this is good because it means手段
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值得欣慰的是,
16:34
we should be able能够 to strike罢工 a balance平衡,
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我们可以找到平衡
16:36
to come up with plans计划 and rules规则
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制定计划和规则
16:39
to protect保护 ourselves我们自己 from unrealistic不切实际 optimism乐观,
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不让自己成为不切实际的乐观的受害者,
16:42
but at the same相同 time remain hopeful有希望.
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但同时保持内心充满希望的状态。
16:45
I think this cartoon动画片 portrays刻画 it nicely很好.
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我认为这幅卡通画很好的展示了这种观点。
16:48
Because if you're one of these pessimistic悲观 penguins企鹅 up there
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如果你是上面那些悲观的企鹅
16:52
who just does not believe they can fly,
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根本不相信自己可以飞翔,
16:54
you certainly当然 never will.
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那你肯定永远也飞不起来。
16:56
Because to make any kind of progress进展,
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我们必须有能力想象与现实不同的未来,
16:58
we need to be able能够 to imagine想像 a different不同 reality现实,
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相信我们的构想能够实现,
17:00
and then we need to believe that that reality现实 is possible可能.
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才能真正取得进展。
17:04
But if you are an extreme极端 optimistic乐观 penguin企鹅
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但是,如果你是一只极为乐观的企鹅
17:08
who just jumps跳跃 down blindly盲目地 hoping希望 for the best最好,
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听天由命的直接跳下悬崖,
17:10
you might威力 find yourself你自己 in a bit of a mess食堂 when you hit击中 the ground地面.
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落地的时候场面恐怕不大好看。
17:15
But if you're an optimistic乐观 penguin企鹅
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然而如果你是一只相信自己能飞
17:17
who believes相信 they can fly,
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的乐观企鹅
17:19
but then adjusts调整 a parachute降落伞 to your back
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又背上了一个降落伞
17:22
just in case案件 things don't work out exactly究竟 as you had planned计划,
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以防事情的发展没有你想象的那么顺利,
17:25
you will soar翱翔 like an eagle,
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你就会如雄鹰一般遨游天际,
17:26
even if you're just a penguin企鹅.
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尽管你不过是只企鹅。
17:29
Thank you.
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谢谢。
17:31
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Yi Shao
Reviewed by Yu-Jia Wang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tali Sharot - Cognitive neuroscientist
Tali Sharot studies why our brains are biased toward optimism.

Why you should listen

Optimism bias is the belief that the future will be better, much better, than the past or present. And most of us display this bias. Neuroscientist Tali Sharot wants to know why: What is it about our brains that makes us overestimate the positive? She explores the question in her book The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain

In the book (and a 2011 TIME magazine cover story), she reviewed findings from both social science and neuroscience that point to an interesting conclusion: "our brains aren't just stamped by the past. They are constantly being shaped by the future." In her own work, she's interested in how our natural optimism actually shapes what we remember, and her interesting range of papers encompasses behavioral research (how likely we are to misremember major events) as well as medical findings -- like searching for the places in the brain where optimism lives. Sharot is a faculty member of the Department of Cognitive, Perceptual and Brain Sciences at University College London.

 

More profile about the speaker
Tali Sharot | Speaker | TED.com