ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.

Why you should listen

Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.

He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.

 

More profile about the speaker
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxBoston 2012

Andrew McAfee: Are droids taking our jobs?

Andrew McAfee:机器人会抢走我们的工作吗?

Filmed:
1,061,603 views

机器人和算法越来越擅长汽车制造、文章撰写和语言翻译之类从前必须有人类参与的工作。那么人类做些什么工作呢?Andrew McAfee评估了近期的劳动力数据之后得出结论:真正的影响尚未到来。然而随后他反观历史,对未来做出了令人惊讶和激动的预测。(录制于TEDxBoston)。
- Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
As it turns out, when tens of millions百万 of people
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事实上,当成千上万的人
00:19
are unemployed失业的 or underemployed半失业,
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没有工作或者被大材小用时
00:21
there's a fair公平 amount of interest利益 in what technology技术 might威力 be doing to the labor劳动 force.
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人们就去关注科技对劳动力的影响。
00:25
And as I look at the conversation会话, it strikes罢工 me
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我看到这方面的新闻与报导之后发现
00:28
that it's focused重点 on exactly究竟 the right topic话题,
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它们关注的主题都没有问题
00:31
and at the same相同 time, it's missing失踪 the point entirely完全.
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但却彻底错过了重点。
00:34
The topic话题 that it's focused重点 on, the question is whether是否 or not
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它们关注的主题是,
00:37
all these digital数字 technologies技术 are affecting影响 people's人们 ability能力
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数码科技会不会影响人们
00:40
to earn a living活的, or, to say it a little bit different不同 way,
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谋生的能力,换句话说,
00:43
are the droids机器人 taking服用 our jobs工作?
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就是机器是不是抢走了我们的工作?
00:46
And there's some evidence证据 that they are.
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有证据显示这样的情况的确存在。
00:48
The Great Recession不景气 ended结束 when American美国 GDPGDP resumed恢复
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大萧条结束时
00:52
its kind of slow, steady稳定 march游行 upward向上, and some other
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美国的GDP恢复了缓慢稳定的增长,
00:56
economic经济 indicators指标 also started开始 to rebound篮板球, and they got
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一些其它经济指标也开始快速健康地回升,
00:58
kind of healthy健康 kind of quickly很快. Corporate企业 profits利润
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企业利润很高。
01:01
are quite相当 high. In fact事实, if you include包括 bank银行 profits利润,
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事实上,如果算上银行利润,
01:05
they're higher更高 than they've他们已经 ever been.
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企业利润处于有史以来的最高水平。
01:07
And business商业 investment投资 in gear齿轮, in equipment设备
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企业在设备、机械、硬件和软件的投资
01:10
and hardware硬件 and software软件 is at an all-time整天 high.
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也处于历史最高水平。
01:13
So the businesses企业 are getting得到 out their checkbooks支票簿.
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所以企业虽然在花钱
01:16
What they're not really doing is hiring招聘.
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却没有雇人。
01:19
So this red line线 is the employment-to-population就业与人口 ratio,
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这条红线是就业人数和人口的比例,
01:22
in other words, the percentage百分比 of working加工 age年龄 people
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换句话说就是美国处于工作年龄的人口中
01:26
in America美国 who have work.
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有工作人数的比例。
01:28
And we see that it cratered陨石坑 during the Great Recession不景气,
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我们可以看到大萧条期间这一比例显著下降,
01:31
and it hasn't有没有 started开始 to bounce弹跳 back at all.
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完全没有开始回升的迹象。
01:34
But the story故事 is not just a recession不景气 story故事.
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这一现象不仅仅存在于萧条时期。
01:37
The decade that we've我们已经 just been through通过 had relatively相对
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十年之内工作数量的增长微乎其微
01:40
anemic贫血的 job工作 growth发展 all throughout始终, especially特别 when we
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和其它的十年比尤其如此
01:43
compare比较 it to other decades几十年, and the 2000s
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事实上,在二十一世纪的第一个十年中
01:46
are the only time we have on record记录 where there were
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2009年的就业人数少于2000年
01:48
fewer people working加工 at the end结束 of the decade
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这种情况有记录以来第一次发生。
01:52
than at the beginning开始. This is not what you want to see.
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是我们不希望看到的趋势。
01:55
When you graph图形 the number of potential潜在 employees雇员
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如果比较潜在雇员和
01:58
versus the number of jobs工作 in the country国家, you see the gap间隙
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工作机会的数量,你会发现
02:02
gets得到 bigger and bigger over time, and then,
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两者之间的差距随着时间的推移越来越大
02:05
during the Great Recession不景气, it opened打开 up in a huge巨大 way.
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在大萧条期间,这种距离更是显著拉大。
02:08
I did some quick calculations计算. I took the last 20 years年份 of GDPGDP growth发展
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我进行了一些计算。我直接运用过去二十年GDP增长
02:12
and the last 20 years年份 of labor劳动 productivity生产率 growth发展
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和劳动生产率增长的数据
02:16
and used those in a fairly相当 straightforward直截了当 way
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尝试预测
02:18
to try to project项目 how many许多 jobs工作 the economy经济 was going
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我们需要多少工作机会才能保证
02:21
to need to keep growing生长, and this is the line线 that I came来了 up with.
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经济的持续增长,最终的结果就是这条曲线。
02:25
Is that good or bad? This is the government's政府的 projection投影
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这个结果是好是坏?这是政府
02:28
for the working加工 age年龄 population人口 going forward前锋.
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对适龄工作人口增长的预测。
02:32
So if these predictions预测 are accurate准确, that gap间隙 is not going to close.
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如果这些预测是准确的,两者之间的差距会保持下去。
02:37
The problem问题 is, I don't think these projections预测 are accurate准确.
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问题是,我认为这些预测并不准确。
02:40
In particular特定, I think my projection投影 is way too optimistic乐观,
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不幸的是,我认为我的预测过于乐观了
02:43
because when I did it, I was assuming假设 that the future未来
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因为我的预测建立在
02:47
was kind of going to look like the past过去
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劳动生产率增长速率和过去持平的假设上
02:49
with labor劳动 productivity生产率 growth发展, and that's actually其实 not what I believe,
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但我不认为事情会这样发展
02:53
because when I look around, I think that we ain't seen看到 nothing yet然而
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因为当我环顾四周时,我认为我们还没有意识到
02:56
when it comes to technology's技术的 impact碰撞 on the labor劳动 force.
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科技对劳动力的影响。
03:00
Just in the past过去 couple一对 years年份, we've我们已经 seen看到 digital数字 tools工具
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近些年来,我们见证了数码工具
03:04
display显示 skills技能 and abilities能力 that they never, ever had before,
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展示出以前从未有过的技能和能力
03:08
and that, kind of, eat deeply into what we human人的 beings众生
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并且对人类生活影响很大。
03:12
do for a living活的. Let me give you a couple一对 examples例子.
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请允许我举几个例子。
03:15
Throughout始终 all of history历史, if you wanted something
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有史以来,如果你需要把一些文字
03:17
translated翻译 from one language语言 into another另一个,
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从一种语言翻译成另外一种语言,
03:20
you had to involve涉及 a human人的 being存在.
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必须有人类参与。
03:22
Now we have multi-language多语言, instantaneous瞬间,
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现在我们可以通过包括智能手机在内的
03:25
automatic自动 translation翻译 services服务 available可得到 for free自由
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各种电子设备
03:29
via通过 many许多 of our devices设备 all the way down to smartphones智能手机.
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使用免费的多语言的即时自动翻译服务。
03:33
And if any of us have used these, we know that
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如果你使用过这这种服务,你就会知道
03:35
they're not perfect完善, but they're decent正经.
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尽管并不完美,他们已经非常不错了。
03:38
Throughout始终 all of history历史, if you wanted something written书面,
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有史以来,如果你想写一篇
03:42
a report报告 or an article文章, you had to involve涉及 a person.
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报告或者文章,必须有人类参与。
03:45
Not anymore. This is an article文章 that appeared出现
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现在不用了。这是一篇不久以前
03:47
in Forbes福布斯 online线上 a while back about Apple's苹果 earnings收益.
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《福布斯》杂志刊登的有关苹果公司收益的文章。
03:51
It was written书面 by an algorithm算法.
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由一个算法撰写。
03:53
And it's not decent正经, it's perfect完善.
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这回不仅是不错了,简直是完美。
03:56
A lot of people look at this and they say, "Okay,
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很多人看到这一现象以后说,“好吧,
03:59
but those are very specific具体, narrow狭窄 tasks任务,
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但这些都是具体的、针对性强的任务,
04:02
and most knowledge知识 workers工人 are actually其实 generalists多面手,
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而大多数知识型人才都是通才,
04:04
and what they do is sit on top最佳 of a very large body身体
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他们拥有很多
04:07
of expertise专门知识 and knowledge知识 and they use that
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技能和知识并运用它们
04:09
to react应对 on the fly to kind of unpredictable不可预料的 demands需要,
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随时随地地应对不可预测的要求,
04:13
and that's very, very hard to automate自动化."
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这一点机器很难做到。“
04:15
One of the most impressive有声有色 knowledge知识 workers工人
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最近最令人印象深刻的
04:17
in recent最近 memory记忆 is a guy named命名 Ken Jennings詹宁斯.
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知识型人才名叫Ken Jennings。
04:19
He won韩元 the quiz测验 show显示 "Jeopardy危险!" 74 times in a row,
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他连续74次在答题节目”抢答(Jeopardy!)“中取得胜利,
04:24
took home three million百万 dollars美元.
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赢得了三百万美金。
04:27
That's Ken on the right getting得到 beat击败 three to one by
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右边的这位就是Ken,在和IBM的超级机器人Watson
04:31
Watson沃森, the "Jeopardy危险!"-playing-playing supercomputer超级计算机 from IBMIBM.
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一同参加”抢答“比赛时,他以三比一败北。
04:36
So when we look at what technology技术 can do
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看到科技产品胜过这样的通才
04:38
to general一般 knowledge知识 workers工人, I start开始 to think
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我开始思考
04:40
there might威力 not be something so special特别 about this idea理念
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通才的概念可能也没有多么特别
04:43
of a generalist通才, particularly尤其 when we start开始 doing things
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尤其是现在,如果我们把Siri
04:46
like hooking挂钩 SiriSiri的 up to Watson沃森 and having technologies技术
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和Watson的技术相结合
04:50
that can understand理解 what we're saying
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就会得到可以理解人类语言
04:52
and repeat重复 speech言语 back to us.
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并得到自然语言反馈的技术。
04:54
Now, SiriSiri的 is far from perfect完善, and we can make fun开玩笑
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现在,Siri还远不完美,所以我们可以嘲笑
04:57
of her flaws破绽, but we should also keep in mind心神 that
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她的缺陷,但是我们也应该想到
05:00
if technologies技术 like SiriSiri的 and Watson沃森 improve提高
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如果Siri和Watson的技术
05:02
along沿 a Moore's摩尔定律 Law trajectory弹道, which哪一个 they will,
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也按照摩尔定律发展,那么
05:06
in six years年份, they're not going to be two times better
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六年之后,他们不是提高2倍
05:09
or four times better, they'll他们会 be 16 times better than they are right now.
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或者4倍,他们会比现在先进16倍。
05:14
So I start开始 to think that a lot of knowledge知识 work is going to be affected受影响 by this.
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所以我认为很多知识型的工作会受到这一发展趋势的影响。
05:17
And digital数字 technologies技术 are not just impacting影响 knowledge知识 work.
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数码技术并非只对知识型的工作有影响。
05:21
They're starting开始 to flex柔性 their muscles肌肉 in the physical物理 world世界 as well.
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他们在体力工作方面也开始展现实力。
05:25
I had the chance机会 a little while back to ride in the Google谷歌
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最近有有机会乘坐了
05:27
autonomous自主性 car汽车, which哪一个 is as cool as it sounds声音. (Laughter笑声)
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谷歌自动汽车,它就像它的名字一样酷。(笑声)
05:33
And I will vouch担保 that it handled处理 the stop-and-go走走停停 traffic交通
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我可以确定的说它有能力自如应对
05:36
on U.S. 101 very smoothly顺利.
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美国101公路上走走停停的交通。
05:39
There are about three and a half million百万 people
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美国有三百五十万人
05:41
who drive驾驶 trucks卡车 for a living活的 in the United联合的 States状态.
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开卡车为生。
05:43
I think some of them are going to be affected受影响 by this
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我认为这项技术可能会影响
05:45
technology技术. And right now, humanoid人形 robots机器人 are still
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他们中的一部分人。现在,拟人机器人
05:49
incredibly令人难以置信 primitive原始. They can't do very much.
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还处在非常原始的状态。它们所能完成的任务十分有限。
05:52
But they're getting得到 better quite相当 quickly很快, and DARPADARPA,
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但性能在快速提高。
05:54
which哪一个 is the investment投资 arm of the Defense防御 Department,
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美国国防部的投资机构高级研究计划局(DARPA)
05:58
is trying to accelerate加速 their trajectory弹道.
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正在尝试推进此类研究的发展。
05:59
So, in short, yeah, the droids机器人 are coming未来 for our jobs工作.
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简而言之,是的,机器人就要来和我们争夺工作机会了。
06:04
In the short term术语, we can stimulate刺激 job工作 growth发展
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短期内,我们可以通过鼓励创业和
06:08
by encouraging鼓舞人心的 entrepreneurship创业 and by investing投资
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投资基础设施建设来促进工作机会的增长
06:11
in infrastructure基础设施, because the robots机器人 today今天 still aren't
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因为现在的机器人
06:14
very good at fixing定影 bridges桥梁.
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并不擅长修建桥梁。
06:16
But in the not-too-long-term不太长期, I think within the lifetimes寿命
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然而,在不远的将来,
06:19
of most of the people in this room房间, we're going to transition过渡
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我想今天的大部分观众有生之年都有可能见证
06:22
into an economy经济 that is very productive生产的 but that
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我们将进入一个生产力非常高
06:25
just doesn't need a lot of human人的 workers工人,
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却不需要很多人类员工的时代,
06:28
and managing管理的 that transition过渡 is going to be
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应对这样的转变
06:30
the greatest最大 challenge挑战 that our society社会 faces面孔.
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则是我们的社会所面临的最大挑战。
06:33
Voltaire伏尔泰 summarized总结 why. He said, "Work saves节省 us
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伏尔泰(Voltaire)总结了原因。他说:
06:35
from three great evils罪恶: boredom无聊, vice and need."
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"工作撵跑三个魔鬼:无聊,堕落和贫穷。"
06:41
But despite尽管 this challenge挑战, I'm personally亲自,
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尽管如此,我个人
06:43
I'm still a huge巨大 digital数字 optimist乐天派, and I am
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仍是一个数码技术乐观主义者,
06:46
supremely千钧 confident信心 that the digital数字 technologies技术 that we're
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我坚信我们现在正在开发的数码技术
06:49
developing发展 now are going to take us into a utopian乌托邦 future未来,
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会带我们进入一个大同社会,
06:53
not a dystopian反乌托邦 future未来. And to explain说明 why,
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而不是可怕的灾难。为了解释我为什么这样乐观
06:56
I want to pose提出 kind of a ridiculously可笑 broad广阔 question.
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我想要问一个宽泛到有些荒唐的问题。
06:58
I want to ask what have been the most important重要
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我的问题是:人类历史上
07:01
developments发展 in human人的 history历史?
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最重要的发展是什么?
07:03
Now, I want to share分享 some of the answers答案 that I've gotten得到
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现在我想与你们分享一些就这个问题
07:06
in response响应 to this question. It's a wonderful精彩 question
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我所得到的答案。这是一个很棒的问题,
07:08
to ask and to start开始 an endless无穷 debate辩论 about,
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问出来可以引起无休止的辩论,
07:10
because some people are going to bring带来 up
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有些人会提起
07:13
systems系统 of philosophy哲学 in both the West西 and the East that
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改变很多人对世界看法的
07:16
have changed how a lot of people think about the world世界.
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各种东西方哲学体系。
07:19
And then other people will say, "No, actually其实, the big stories故事,
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其他人则会说。“不,真正重要的发展
07:22
the big developments发展 are the founding创建 of the world's世界
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是世界主要宗教的建立,
07:24
major重大的 religions宗教, which哪一个 have changed civilizations文明
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它们改变了各国文明
07:28
and have changed and influenced影响 how countless无数 people
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改变和影响力了无数人的
07:30
are living活的 their lives生活." And then some other folk民间 will say,
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生活方式。“还有人会说,
07:33
"Actually其实, what changes变化 civilizations文明, what modifies修改 them
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”事实上,改变文明
07:37
and what changes变化 people's人们 lives生活
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和人类生活的
07:39
are empires帝国, so the great developments发展 in human人的 history历史
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是帝国,所以人类历史上最重要的发展
07:43
are stories故事 of conquest征服 and of war战争."
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是征服和战争。”
07:46
And then some cheery愉快的 soul灵魂 usually平时 always pipes管道 up
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还有些生性欢快的人物常常会跳起来说
07:48
and says, "Hey, don't forget忘记 about plagues瘟疫." (Laughter笑声)
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“嗨,别忘了瘟疫。”(笑声)
07:54
There are some optimistic乐观 answers答案 to this question,
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我也得到了一些积极的答案,
07:57
so some people will bring带来 up the Age年龄 of Exploration勘探
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有些人提起了地理大发现时代
07:59
and the opening开盘 up of the world世界.
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和对世界的探索。
08:01
Others其他 will talk about intellectual知识分子 achievements成就
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有人认为是包括数学在内的一些学科上的
08:03
in disciplines学科 like math数学 that have helped帮助 us get
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学术进步帮助我们更好的
08:05
a better handle处理 on the world世界, and other folk民间 will talk about
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应对世界,也有人说到艺术和科学
08:08
periods when there was a deep flourishing芊芊
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繁荣发展的时代
08:10
of the arts艺术 and sciences科学. So this debate辩论 will go on and on.
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所以这场辩论可以一直进行下去。
08:14
It's an endless无穷 debate辩论, and there's no conclusive确凿,
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这是永远不会结束的争论,也没有
08:17
no single answer回答 to it. But if you're a geek极客 like me,
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明确的唯一答案。但是,如果你和我一样是技术宅,
08:20
you say, "Well, what do the data数据 say?"
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你就会问,“那么,数据会给出什么样的答案呢?”
08:23
And you start开始 to do things like graph图形 things that we might威力
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然后我们就开始以感兴趣的东西为主题
08:26
be interested有兴趣 in, the total worldwide全世界 population人口, for example,
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制作图标,比如世界人口
08:30
or some measure测量 of social社会 development发展,
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或者是某钟衡量社会发展的标准,
08:33
or the state of advancement进步 of a society社会,
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或者社会进步的状态,
08:35
and you start开始 to plot情节 the data数据, because, by this approach途径,
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将这些数据转化为图标之后,
08:39
the big stories故事, the big developments发展 in human人的 history历史,
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就可以看到人类历史上的重要事件和伟大发展,
08:41
are the ones那些 that will bend弯曲 these curves曲线 a lot.
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都会对这些曲线造成明显的变化。
08:44
So when you do this, and when you plot情节 the data数据,
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将数据转化成图形之后
08:46
you pretty漂亮 quickly很快 come to some weird奇怪的 conclusions结论.
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你很快就会得到一些奇怪的结论。
08:49
You conclude得出结论, actually其实, that none没有 of these things
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事实上,你的结论是这些因素
08:52
have mattered要紧 very much. (Laughter笑声)
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其实没有一个真正重要。(笑声)
08:57
They haven't没有 doneDONE a darn thing to the curves曲线. (Laughter笑声)
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它们对曲线的走势毫无影响。
09:01
There has been one story故事, one development发展
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人类历史上只有一个事件,一个发展
09:05
in human人的 history历史 that bent弯曲 the curve曲线, bent弯曲 it just about
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改变了这条曲线,让它发生了近90度的上升
09:07
90 degrees, and it is a technology技术 story故事.
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这就是科学技术。
09:11
The steam蒸汽 engine发动机, and the other associated相关 technologies技术
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蒸汽机以及工业革命期间出现的其它相关技术
09:14
of the Industrial产业 Revolution革命 changed the world世界
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改变了世界
09:17
and influenced影响 human人的 history历史 so much,
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对人类历史产生了深远的影响,
09:20
that in the words of the historian历史学家 Ian伊恩 Morris莫里斯,
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用历史学家Ian Morris的话说
09:22
they made制作 mockery蔑视 out of all that had come before.
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它们简直是对人类此前所取得的所有成就的嘲弄。
09:26
And they did this by infinitely无限地 multiplying乘以 the power功率
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这些技术带来了人类无法企及的力量
09:29
of our muscles肌肉, overcoming克服 the limitations限制 of our muscles肌肉.
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解放了人们的双手。
09:32
Now, what we're in the middle中间 of now
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现在,我们所经历的
09:34
is overcoming克服 the limitations限制 of our individual个人 brains大脑
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则是对人类智力的超越
09:37
and infinitely无限地 multiplying乘以 our mental心理 power功率.
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解放人们的大脑。
09:40
How can this not be as big a deal合同 as overcoming克服
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这和超越体力极限一样
09:44
the limitations限制 of our muscles肌肉?
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是人类历史上的一件大事。
09:46
So at the risk风险 of repeating重复 myself a little bit, when I look
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因此请允许我再次强调
09:50
at what's going on with digital数字 technology技术 these days,
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从当今数码科技发展的趋势来看
09:53
we are not anywhere随地 near through通过 with this journey旅程,
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我们还远未到达这趟旅程的终点,
09:55
and when I look at what is happening事件 to our economies经济
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从当今的经济和社会发展趋势来看
09:58
and our societies社会, my single conclusion结论 is that
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我认为我们尚未见证
10:01
we ain't seen看到 nothing yet然而. The best最好 days are really ahead.
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真正的变革。未来充满了激动人心的可能性。
10:04
Let me give you a couple一对 examples例子.
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请允许我举几个例子。
10:06
Economies经济 don't run on energy能源. They don't run on capital首都,
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经济发展靠的不是能源、不是资本
10:10
they don't run on labor劳动. Economies经济 run on ideas思路.
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也不是劳动力。经济发展靠的是理念。
10:14
So the work of innovation革新, the work of coming未来 up with
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所以带来创新的工作
10:17
new ideas思路, is some of the most powerful强大,
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是最重要的,
10:19
some of the most fundamental基本的 work that we can do
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是经济发展中最基础的工作。
10:21
in an economy经济. And this is kind of how we used to do innovation革新.
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我们过去是这样从事创新工作的。
10:25
We'd星期三 find a bunch of fairly相当 similar-looking类似的前瞻性 people
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我们找一群长的差不多的人
10:29
— (Laughter笑声) —
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(笑声)
10:32
we'd星期三 take them out of elite原种 institutions机构, we'd星期三 put them into
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他们来自精英组织,我们再让他们进入
10:35
other elite原种 institutions机构, and we'd星期三 wait for the innovation革新.
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其它的精英组织,然后等待创新的到来。
10:38
Now — (Laughter笑声) —
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现在(笑声)
10:42
as a white白色 guy who spent花费 his whole整个 career事业 at MITMIT
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作为一个整个职业生涯都在麻省理工
10:44
and Harvard哈佛, I got no problem问题 with this. (Laughter笑声)
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和哈佛工作的白人,我对此没有意见。(笑声)
10:51
But some other people do, and they've他们已经 kind of crashed坠毁
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但是其他人不这样想,他们闯进
10:53
the party派对 and loosened松动 up the dress连衣裙 code of innovation革新.
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创新世界的派对,降低了进入的门槛。
10:56
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:57
So here are the winners获奖者 of a Top最佳 Coder编码器 programming程序设计 challenge挑战,
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这是Top Coder编程比赛的获胜者,
11:00
and I assure保证 you that nobody没有人 cares管它
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我相信没有人在意
11:03
where these kids孩子 grew成长 up, where they went to school学校,
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这些孩子在哪里长大,他们在什么地方上学,
11:07
or what they look like. All anyone任何人 cares管它 about
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以及他们的长相。我们在乎的只有
11:09
is the quality质量 of the work, the quality质量 of the ideas思路.
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他们作品和想法的质量。
11:12
And over and over again, we see this happening事件
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我们一次又一次的在技术驱动的世界中
11:14
in the technology-facilitated技术推动 world世界.
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看到这种情况的发生。
11:17
The work of innovation革新 is becoming变得 more open打开,
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创新工作正在变的更加开放,
11:19
more inclusive包括的, more transparent透明, and more merit-based任人唯贤,
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更具包容性,更加透明,更加注重成绩,
11:23
and that's going to continue继续 no matter what MITMIT and Harvard哈佛
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无论麻省理工和哈佛怎么想,这种趋势
11:26
think of it, and I couldn't不能 be happier幸福 about that development发展.
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都将继续,令我感到非常开心。
11:29
I hear once一旦 in a while, "Okay, I'll grant发放 you that,
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我时不时听到这样的说法,“好,这些我可以接受,
11:32
but technology技术 is still a tool工具 for the rich丰富 world世界,
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但是科技依然是富裕阶层的工具,
11:35
and what's not happening事件, these digital数字 tools工具 are not
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现实的缺失是,这些数码工具没有
11:38
improving提高 the lives生活 of people at the bottom底部 of the pyramid金字塔."
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提高处于金字塔底层人们的生活。”
11:41
And I want to say to that very clearly明确地: nonsense废话.
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对于这种说法,我的答案非常简单:无稽之谈。
11:44
The bottom底部 of the pyramid金字塔 is benefiting受益 hugely巨大 from technology技术.
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科技大大改善了底层人民的生活。
11:47
The economist经济学家 Robert罗伯特 Jensen詹森 did this wonderful精彩 study研究
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经济学家Robert Jensen有一项出色的研究
11:50
a while back where he watched看着, in great detail详情,
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不久之前,他仔细观察了
11:53
what happened发生 to the fishing钓鱼 villages村庄 of Kerala喀拉拉邦, India印度,
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印度喀拉拉邦地区小渔村居民得到手机后
11:57
when they got mobile移动 phones手机 for the very first time,
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生活发生的变化。
12:00
and when you write for the Quarterly季刊 Journal日志 of Economics经济学,
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《经济学季刊》刊登的文章
12:02
you have to use very dry and very circumspect细心 language语言,
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语言一向干涩谨慎
12:05
but when I read his paper, I kind of feel Jensen詹森 is trying
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然而读到Jensen的文章时,
12:08
to scream惊叫 at us, and say, look, this was a big deal合同.
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却感觉他向我们疾呼:看,这真的非常了不起。
12:11
Prices价格 stabilized稳定, so people could plan计划 their economic经济 lives生活.
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物价稳定,所以人们可以做好经济计划。
12:15
Waste浪费 was not reduced减少; it was eliminated淘汰.
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浪费不是减少了,而是彻底被消灭了。
12:19
And the lives生活 of both the buyers买家 and the sellers卖家
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在这些村庄里,卖方和买方
12:21
in these villages村庄 measurably可测量 improved改善.
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的生活水平都提高了。
12:24
Now, what I don't think is that Jensen詹森 got extremely非常 lucky幸运
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我不认为Jensen运气过人,
12:28
and happened发生 to land土地 in the one set of villages村庄
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碰巧遇到了一些生活水平
12:30
where technology技术 made制作 things better.
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因科技而大大改善的村子。
12:32
What happened发生 instead代替 is he very carefully小心 documented记录
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事实上,他只是非常详细的记录了
12:35
what happens发生 over and over again when technology技术
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新技术被引进新的环境和社区时
12:38
comes for the first time to an environment环境 and a community社区.
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普遍会发生的情况。
12:41
The lives生活 of people, the welfares福利 of people, improve提高 dramatically显着.
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居民的生活和福利会得到显著改善。
12:45
So as I look around at all the evidence证据, and I think about
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因此,对各方证据进行评估
12:47
the room房间 that we have ahead of us, I become成为 a huge巨大
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并考虑未来发展空间之后,我对数码技术
12:50
digital数字 optimist乐天派, and I start开始 to think that this wonderful精彩
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持乐观态度,我开始认为物理学家Freeman Dyson
12:53
statement声明 from the physicist物理学家 Freeman弗里曼 Dyson戴森
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所提出的精彩观点
12:56
is actually其实 not hyperbole夸张. This is an accurate准确 assessment评定 of what's going on.
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并不夸张,而是对当前形势的精确评估。
13:00
Our digital数字 -- our technologies技术 are great gifts礼品,
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我们的数码技术是上天伟大的礼物,
13:03
and we, right now, have the great good fortune幸运
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如今数码技术繁荣发展
13:06
to be living活的 at a time when digital数字 technology技术 is flourishing芊芊,
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涉及范围不断拓宽加深
13:09
when it is broadening扩大 and deepening深化 and
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在世界上的影响也越来越深远
13:11
becoming变得 more profound深刻 all around the world世界.
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能生活在这样一个时代是我们莫大的幸运。
13:14
So, yeah, the droids机器人 are taking服用 our jobs工作,
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因此,机器人确实在侵蚀我们的工作
13:18
but focusing调焦 on that fact事实 misses错过 the point entirely完全.
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然而这并不是值得关注的重点。
13:21
The point is that then we are freed释放 up to do other things,
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真正值得关注的是技术给我们自由从事其他活动的机会
13:25
and what we are going to do, I am very confident信心,
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以及我们如何利用这样的机会,我坚信
13:27
what we're going to do is reduce减少 poverty贫穷 and drudgery苦差事
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我们将会减少世界上的贫困、单调乏味的工作
13:30
and misery苦难 around the world世界. I'm very confident信心
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和苦痛。我相信
13:33
we're going to learn学习 to live生活 more lightly轻轻 on the planet行星,
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我们可以降低对地球资源的需求,
13:36
and I am extremely非常 confident信心 that what we're going to do
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我相信我们未来对数码工具会有更深刻运用
13:40
with our new digital数字 tools工具 is going to be so profound深刻
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造福世界,
13:43
and so beneficial有利 that it's going to make a mockery蔑视
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让此前的人类成就
13:45
out of everything that came来了 before.
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都显得微不足道。
13:47
I'm going to leave离开 the last word to a guy who had
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最后我将引用Ken Jennings
13:50
a front面前 row seat座位 for digital数字 progress进展,
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一位紧密关注数码技术进步的
13:52
our old friend朋友 Ken Jennings詹宁斯. I'm with him.
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老朋友所说的一句话。我认同他的观点。
13:54
I'm going to echo回声 his words:
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我直接转述他的原话:
13:56
"I, for one, welcome欢迎 our new computer电脑 overlords霸主." (Laughter笑声)
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“我,欢迎我们的新一代机器人领主。”(笑声)
14:00
Thanks谢谢 very much. (Applause掌声)
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非常感谢。(掌声)
Translated by Yi Shao
Reviewed by Gao Popol

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.

Why you should listen

Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.

He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.

 

More profile about the speaker
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com