ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pankaj Ghemawat - Globalization researcher
Our world is not flat, says ecnomist Pankaj Ghemawat -- it's at best semi-globalized, with limited interactions between countries and economies.

Why you should listen

There seem to be two leading views of globalization: either that it is done and the world is flat (a view popularized by Tom Friedman) or that it has led to a world dominated by corporations (Naomi Klein). Pankaj Ghemawat disagrees with both -- and his case, backed by data, can be convincing. His most recent book, World 3.0, based on extensive research and backed up with abundant data, explores the true face of globalization--and shows that the world is not one vast market, but many small, interconnected, discrete entities, with varying degrees of openness to one another. That even the most open economies are still relatively closed. That we live in a world of semi-globalization at best. Ghemawat also refutes the assumption that globalization leads to homogeneization. According to The Economist, World 3.0 “should be read by anyone who wants to understand the most important economic development of our time.”

Ghemawat is a professor of strategic management at IESE Business School in Spain. In his latest work, he explores another kind of networked economy--the cross-border "geography" of Facebook and Twitter followers.

More profile about the speaker
Pankaj Ghemawat | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2012

Pankaj Ghemawat: Actually, the world isn't flat

Pankaj Ghemawat: 事实上,世界并不是平的。

Filmed:
949,341 views

我们似乎已经生活在一个没有国界限制的世界里,思想、物资和人都可以自由的在国与国之间通行。Pankaj Ghemawat将向我们指出,我们并没有那么全球化。通过大量的数据(和让人大开眼界的调查), 他认为我们的感知和现实间存在巨大差距,世界可能并没有想象中那么高度全球化。
- Globalization researcher
Our world is not flat, says ecnomist Pankaj Ghemawat -- it's at best semi-globalized, with limited interactions between countries and economies. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm here to talk to you about how globalized全球化 we are,
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我今天来到这里,是想谈论全球化的程度有多深,
00:20
how globalized全球化 we aren't,
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或者全球化有多么遥远,
00:23
and why it's important重要 to actually其实 be accurate准确
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以及,为什么全球化程度的精确评估
00:26
in making制造 those kinds of assessments评估.
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是如此的重要。
00:29
And the leading领导 point of view视图 on this, whether是否 measured测量
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现今对全球化主流的看法,不论源于
00:33
by number of books图书 sold出售, mentions提到 in media媒体,
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对书籍销售量,媒体提及次数的统计,
00:37
or surveys调查 that I've run with groups ranging不等 from
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或者来自我调查,调查对象包括下至我的学生
00:40
my students学生们 to delegates代表 to the World世界 Trade贸易 Organization组织,
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上至世界贸易组织代表,
00:44
is this view视图 that national国民 borders国界
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持这种观点的人认为国界的限制
00:48
really don't matter very much anymore,
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已经不再是那么显著了,
00:51
cross-border跨界 integration积分 is close to complete完成,
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跨国界的完全融合已指日可待,
00:55
and we live生活 in one world世界.
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所有人都会生活在地球村里。
00:57
And what's interesting有趣 about this view视图
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尤为有趣的是,
01:00
is, again, it's a view视图 that's held保持 by pro-globalizers亲全球化者
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“全球化已经趋于完成”这一观点不仅被支持全球化的人认同
01:03
like Tom汤姆 Friedman弗里德曼, from whose谁的 book this quote引用 is obviously明显 excerpted摘录,
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比如托马斯·弗里德曼,他的书就引述此观点(《世界是平的》)
01:08
but it's also held保持 by anti-globalizers反全球化者, who see this giant巨人
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同时也同样得到了反对全球化的人的认同,他们普遍认为
01:12
globalization全球化 tsunami海啸 that's about to wreck破坏 all our lives生活
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全球化将如洪水猛兽般冲毁我们的生活
01:17
if it hasn't有没有 already已经 doneDONE so.
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即便目前还没达到,但终将来临。
01:20
The other thing I would add is that this is not a new view视图.
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此外,我得说“全球化已经快要完成”这不是最近的观点。
01:24
I'm a little bit of an amateur业余 historian历史学家, so I've spent花费
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我或多或少是个业余历史学家,所以花了些时间
01:28
some time going back, trying to see the first mention提到
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去追溯前人对全球化程度的评估,看看是谁首次
01:31
of this kind of thing. And the best最好, earliest最早 quote引用
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提出这种论调。我所找到最早的完整表述
01:35
that I could find was one from David大卫 Livingstone利文斯通,
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是来自于大卫·利文斯顿(David Livingstone),
01:39
writing写作 in the 1850s about how the railroad铁路, the steam蒸汽 ship,
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写于1850年,谈论铁路、蒸汽船、
01:45
and the telegraph电报 were integrating整合 East Africa非洲 perfectly完美
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以及电报机,正完美地将东非
01:50
with the rest休息 of the world世界.
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以及世界其它地方融合在一起。
01:53
Now clearly明确地, David大卫 Livingstone利文斯通
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现在看来,大卫·利文斯顿
01:55
was a little bit ahead of his time,
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显然是略领先于他所处的时代,
01:58
but it does seem似乎 useful有用 to ask ourselves我们自己,
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但是,我们似乎应该首先问自己
02:02
"Just how global全球 are we?"
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“我们究竟有多么全球化?”
02:04
before we think about where we go from here.
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然后再去思考在此基础上我们未来要走向何方。
02:06
So the best最好 way I've found发现 of trying to get people
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所以我发现要说服大家,
02:11
to take seriously认真地 the idea理念 that the world世界 may可能 not be flat平面,
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看清世界并没有我们想象中那么全球化,
02:16
may可能 not even be close to flat平面, is with some data数据.
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甚至并没有接近全球化,我们就得用数据说话。
02:20
So one of the things I've been doing over the last few少数 years年份
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我在过去几年所做的
02:23
is really compiling编译 data数据 on things that could either happen发生
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实际上是收集那些相关数据,
02:27
within national国民 borders国界 or across横过 national国民 borders国界,
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既有国内的也有国际的,
02:31
and I've looked看着 at the cross-border跨界 component零件
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再计算那些跨越国界的部分
02:35
as a percentage百分比 of the total.
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占总量的百分比。
02:37
I'm not going to present当下 all the data数据 that I have here today今天,
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我并没有打算在今天展示所有的数据,
02:41
but let me just give you a few少数 data数据 points.
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只是向大家分享一些数据的,
02:45
I'm going to talk a little bit about one kind of information信息 flow,
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我将要谈论一些信息流,
02:49
one kind of flow of people, one kind of flow of capital首都,
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人口的流动,资本的流通,
02:54
and, of course课程, trade贸易 in products制品 and services服务.
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当然,还包括产品与服务的贸易往来。
02:57
So let's start开始 off with plain old telephone电话 service服务.
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好,那么让我们以普通老式电话业务作为开始。
03:02
Of all the voice-calling语音呼叫 minutes分钟 in the world世界 last year,
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去年全球的语音通话时间中,
03:07
what percentage百分比 do you think were accounted for
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你们认为有百分之多少
03:12
by cross-border跨界 phone电话 calls电话?
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会是来自跨国电话?
03:14
Pick a percentage百分比 in your own拥有 mind心神.
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你们可以心中默想一个数据。
03:18
The answer回答 turns out to be two percent百分.
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真实的数据是2%。
03:21
If you include包括 Internet互联网 telephony电话, you might威力 be able能够
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如果再将互联网电话业务包含其中,这个数值
03:25
to push this number up to six or seven percent百分,
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可能被推高到6%或7%,
03:29
but it's nowhere无处 near what people tend趋向 to estimate估计.
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但这显然远低于我们心中的预估值。
03:33
Or let's turn to people moving移动 across横过 borders国界.
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好,我们再来看看跨国的人口流动。
03:37
One particular特定 thing we might威力 look at, in terms条款 of
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我们要特别关注的是,
03:40
long-term长期 flows流动 of people, is what percentage百分比
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考虑长期的人口流动,
03:44
of the world's世界 population人口 is accounted for
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在全球所有人口中
03:48
by first-generation第一代 immigrants移民?
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第一代移民占了多少百分比呢?
03:51
Again, please pick a percentage百分比.
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一样,请大家心中默想一个数据。
03:55
Turns out to be a little bit higher更高.
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结果比上一个答案要略高一点,
03:57
It's actually其实 about three percent百分.
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是大约3%。
04:00
Or think of investment投资. Take all the real真实 investment投资
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我们再来看看投资。将所有2010年开始并持续的
04:05
that went on in the world世界 in 2010.
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产权投资计算在内。
04:08
What percentage百分比 of that was accounted for
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究竟有多少百分比,
04:11
by foreign国外 direct直接 investment投资?
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是由外商直接投资的呢?
04:15
Not quite相当 ten percent百分.
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不足10%。
04:19
And then finally最后, the one statistic统计
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最后,是一个统计指标
04:21
that I suspect疑似 many许多 of the people in this room房间 have seen看到:
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相信在座的各位已经耳熟能详:
04:24
the export-to-GDP出口占国内生产总值 ratio.
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“出口占国内生产总值的比例”
04:27
If you look at the official官方 statistics统计, they typically一般 indicate表明
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如果你去看看官方的统计,他们通常给出
04:31
a little bit above以上 30 percent百分.
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超过30%的结果。
04:33
However然而, there's a big problem问题 with the official官方 statistics统计,
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然而,在官方统计中存在巨大的漏洞,
04:39
in that if, for instance, a Japanese日本 component零件 supplier供应商
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举例来说,如果一个日本电子元件供应商
04:43
ships船舶 something to China中国 to be put into an iPodiPod的,
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将产品运到中国加工成一个iPod,
04:47
and then the iPodiPod的 gets得到 shipped to the U.S.,
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再运输到美国,
04:50
that component零件 ends结束 up getting得到 counted multiple times.
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那么这个元件将被重复统计。
04:54
So nobody没有人 knows知道 how bad this bias偏压
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所以没有人能够知道官方统计与实际情况
04:56
with the official官方 statistics统计 actually其实 is, so I thought I would
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之间的误差究竟有多大,所以我认为
05:00
ask the person who's谁是 spearheading逍遥丸 the effort功夫
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我应该咨询那些率先生成这方面数据的专家
05:03
to generate生成 data数据 on this, Pascal帕斯卡尔 Lamy拉米,
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帕斯卡尔·拉米
05:06
the Director导向器 of the World世界 Trade贸易 Organization组织,
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世界贸易组织的总干事
05:09
what his best最好 guess猜测 would be
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他认为最佳的估计
05:11
of exports出口 as a percentage百分比 of GDPGDP,
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“出口占国内生产总值的比例”,
05:14
without the double-双- and triple-counting三计数,
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在去除双重或三重计算后,
05:17
and it's actually其实 probably大概 a bit under 20 percent百分, rather than
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实际上可能略低于20%,而不是
05:21
the 30 percent-plus%的加 numbers数字 that we're talking about.
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我们日常谈论的超过30%。
05:25
So it's very clear明确 that if you look at these numbers数字
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所以很明显,当你看到这些数据
05:29
or all the other numbers数字 that I talk about in my book,
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或者通过我写的书,
05:33
"World世界 3.0," that we're very, very far from
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《World 3.0》,我们远远未能达到
05:37
the no-border无边界 effect影响 benchmark基准, which哪一个 would imply意味着
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那些由无国界效应标准所意味的
05:41
internationalization国际化 levels水平 of the order订购 of 85, 90, 95 percent百分.
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85%、90%甚至95%量级的国际化水平。
05:48
So clearly明确地, apocalyptically-minded世界末日的头脑 authors作者
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这样就很清楚了,那些怀着末日心态的作家
05:52
have overstated夸大 the case案件.
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实际上是夸大其辞了。
05:55
But it's not just the apocalypticsapocalyptics, as I think of them,
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然而,并非仅仅是那些带有末日心态的人
05:59
who are prone易于 to this kind of overstatement言过其实.
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才有这种夸大叙述的倾向。
06:02
I've also spent花费 some time surveying测量学 audiences观众
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我也花时间去做过问卷调查
06:05
in different不同 parts部分 of the world世界
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在世界各地进行取样
06:07
on what they actually其实 guess猜测 these numbers数字 to be.
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让他们猜测这些数据可能会有多少。
06:11
Let me share分享 with you the results结果 of a survey调查
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让我在这与大家分享调查的结果。
06:14
that Harvard哈佛 Business商业 Review评论 was kind enough足够 to run
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利用期刊《哈佛商业评论》的
06:18
of its readership读者 as to what people's人们 guesses猜测
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读者群做为样本,
06:21
along沿 these dimensions尺寸 actually其实 were.
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进行这些方面数据的读者猜测。
06:26
So a couple一对 of observations意见 stand out for me from this slide滑动.
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结果如图。(白色为真值,蓝色为猜测)
06:32
First of all, there is a suggestion建议 of some error错误.
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首先,两者之间似乎有那么一丁点儿差距。
06:37
Okay. (Laughter笑声)
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好吧。(笑声)
06:39
Second第二, these are pretty漂亮 large errors错误. For four quantities数量
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其次,大家对这四个指标的猜测都错得很离谱。
06:45
whose谁的 average平均 value is less than 10 percent百分,
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真实值的平均数量在10%以下,
06:48
you have people guessing揣测 three, four times that level水平.
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但有很多人猜想值高于实际值三倍甚至四倍。
06:52
Even though虽然 I'm an economist经济学家, I find that
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即使我是一个经济学家,我也能看出
06:55
a pretty漂亮 large error错误.
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这是一个相当大的误差。
06:57
And third第三, this is not just confined受限 to the readers读者
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第三点,不仅仅局限于
07:01
of the Harvard哈佛 Business商业 Review评论.
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《哈佛商业评论》的读者群。
07:03
I've run several一些 dozen such这样 surveys调查 in different不同 parts部分
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我也在世界其他的地方进行多次
07:07
of the world世界, and in all cases except one,
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类似的调查,只有一项指标
07:10
where a group actually其实 underestimated低估
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会出现群体性低估,那就是
07:13
the trade-to-GDP贸易对GDP ratio, people have this tendency趋势
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“贸易占国内生产总值的比例”,而剩下指标
07:17
towards overestimation高估, and so I thought it important重要
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人们倾向于过高估计,所以我认为很有必要
07:20
to give a name名称 to this, and that's what I refer参考 to
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给这种群体性特征进行命名,
07:24
as globaloneyglobaloney, the difference区别 between之间 the dark黑暗 blue蓝色 bars酒吧
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称它为“全球胡话”,参考这深蓝色
07:28
and the light gray灰色 bars酒吧.
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与浅灰色之间的差距。
07:31
Especially特别 because, I suspect疑似, some of you may可能 still be
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我想,你们中可能仍然有一些人
07:35
a little bit skeptical怀疑的 of the claims索赔, I think it's important重要
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对我的说法持怀疑态度,我认为这非常重要
07:40
to just spend a little bit of time thinking思维 about
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去花一点点时间来思考
07:43
why we might威力 be prone易于 to globaloneyglobaloney.
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为什么我们会倾向于迷信这种“全球胡话”。
07:47
A couple一对 of different不同 reasons原因 come to mind心神.
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一系列理由从我的脑海中浮现,
07:49
First of all, there's a real真实 dearth缺乏 of data数据 in the debate辩论.
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首先,是在这一议题上,相关数据的严重匮乏。
07:54
Let me give you an example. When I first published发表
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我来给大家一个例子。当我在几年前
07:57
some of these data数据 a few少数 years年份 ago
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在一个叫《外交政策》的杂志上
08:00
in a magazine杂志 called Foreign国外 Policy政策,
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第一次公布这些数据时,
08:02
one of the people who wrote in, not entirely完全 in agreement协议,
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有一位人物来信,对此持不同意见,
08:06
was Tom汤姆 Friedman弗里德曼. And since以来 my article文章 was titled标题
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他就是托马斯·弗里德曼。他的反对是必然的,
08:10
"Why the World世界 Isn't Flat平面," that wasn't too surprising奇怪. (Laughter笑声)
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因为文章标题是《为何世界不是“平”的》。(笑声)
08:14
What was very surprising奇怪 to me was Tom's汤姆 critique批判,
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让我非常惊讶的是汤姆的批评内容,
08:19
which哪一个 was, "Ghemawat's格玛沃特的 data数据 are narrow狭窄."
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他说,“沃特使用的数据面太窄。”
08:24
And this caused造成 me to scratch my head, because
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这使我疑惑不解,因为
08:27
as I went back through通过 his several-hundred-page几百页 book,
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我翻了他数百页的书,
08:30
I couldn't不能 find a single figure数字, chart图表, table,
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竟然找不到一张图表,
08:35
reference参考 or footnote脚注.
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连脚注和参考文献都没有。
08:37
So my point is, I haven't没有 presented呈现 a lot of data数据 here
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所以我的观点是,我引用的数据
08:42
to convince说服 you that I'm right, but I would urge敦促 you
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可能还不足以让你信服,但是我需要提醒你
08:45
to go away and look for your own拥有 data数据
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回去找找你自己的数据
08:48
to try and actually其实 assess评估 whether是否 some of these
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试着用精确的评估方式来看看
08:52
hand-me-down手,我下来 insights见解 that we've我们已经 been bombarded炮轰 with
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这些我们一直被灌输的观点
08:56
actually其实 are correct正确.
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是否真的正确。
08:58
So dearth缺乏 of data数据 in the debate辩论 is one reason原因.
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好了,相关数据的匮乏是第一个原因。
09:02
A second第二 reason原因 has to do with peer窥视 pressure压力.
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第二个原因是来自于同行的压力。
09:05
I remember记得, I decided决定 to write my
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我记得,当我决定去写
09:09
"Why the World世界 Isn't Flat平面" article文章, because
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《为何世界不是“平”的》,是因为
09:11
I was being存在 interviewed采访 on TV电视 in Mumbai孟买,
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我在孟买电视台接受采访,
09:14
and the interviewer's面试官 first question to me was,
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主持人问我的第一个问题就是,
09:18
"Professor教授 Ghemawat格玛沃特, why do you still believe
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“沃特教授,为什么你坚持相信,
09:22
that the world世界 is round回合?" And I started开始 laughing,
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这个世界是圆的呢?”我忍不住笑了,
09:26
because I hadn't有没有 come across横过 that formulation公式 before. (Laughter笑声)
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因为我以前还没有想过这种说法。(笑声)
09:30
And as I was laughing, I was thinking思维,
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我在笑的同时,也陷入了沉思,
09:32
I really need a more coherent相干 response响应, especially特别
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面对这个问题我确实需要更多的回应,特别是
09:35
on national国民 TV电视. I'd better write something about this. (Laughter笑声)
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全国播放的电视媒体上。我最好为此写些回应文章。(笑声)
09:39
But what I can't quite相当 capture捕获 for you
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但我无法让你们了解的
09:42
was the pity可怜 and disbelief怀疑
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就是主持人提问时那怜悯和怀疑的态度。
09:45
with which哪一个 the interviewer面试官 asked her question.
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就是主持人提问时那怜悯和怀疑的态度。
09:48
The perspective透视 was, here is this poor较差的 professor教授.
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好像在说,这儿站着一个可怜的教授。
09:53
He's clearly明确地 been in a cave洞穴 for the last 20,000 years年份.
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他已经在山顶洞里住了两万年,
09:57
He really has no idea理念
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他根本就不知道
10:00
as to what's actually其实 going on in the world世界.
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当今世界正在发生着什么。
10:03
So try this out with your friends朋友 and acquaintances熟人,
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如果你们愿意,也可以尝试和亲朋好友做这样的交流,
10:06
if you like. You'll你会 find that it's very cool
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你会发现当谈论的话题
10:10
to talk about the world世界 being存在 one, etc等等.
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是世界一家时,那将会很酷。
10:13
If you raise提高 questions问题 about that formulation公式,
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然而对这种说法提出质疑时,
10:17
you really are considered考虑 a bit of an antique古董.
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你就会被视为老古董。
10:20
And then the final最后 reason原因, which哪一个 I mention提到,
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接下来,我要提一下最后的原因,
10:24
especially特别 to a TEDTED audience听众, with some trepidation不安,
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尤其是面对TED的观众,我诚惶诚恐,
10:28
has to do with what I call "techno-trancesTECHNO-恍惚."
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来介绍所谓的“电音入迷”
10:31
If you listen to technoTECHNO music音乐 for long periods of time,
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就是你长时间聆听动感强烈的电子音乐,
10:34
it does things to your brainwave脑波 activity活动. (Laughter笑声)
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它就会干扰你的脑波活动。(笑声)
10:38
Something similar类似 seems似乎 to happen发生
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那些与此现象类似的
10:41
with exaggerated夸张的 conceptions概念 of how technology技术
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以夸张的概念来描述科技是如何
10:47
is going to overpower压倒 in the very immediate即时 run
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在短时间内以势不可挡之势
10:51
all cultural文化 barriers障碍, all political政治 barriers障碍,
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冲破一切文化藩篱、政治界限、
10:54
all geographic地理 barriers障碍, because at this point
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以及地理天堑,对于“电音入迷”这一提法
10:58
I know you aren't allowed允许 to ask me questions问题,
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我知道现场不允许你们向我提问,
11:00
but when I get to this point in my lecture演讲 with my students学生们,
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但是我准备了一些来自课堂上学生的提问
11:03
hands go up, and people ask me,
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他们举起手来,然后质问我,
11:06
"Yeah, but what about FacebookFacebook的?"
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“好吧,那你是怎么看脸书 (Facebook)?”
11:09
And I got this question often经常 enough足够 that I thought
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对于这个问题,我已经胸有成竹
11:12
I'd better do some research研究 on FacebookFacebook的.
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我也对Facebook做了不少研究。
11:15
Because, in some sense, it's the ideal理想 kind of technology技术
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因为,从某种角度说,它是一种需要研究的理想科技
11:19
to think about. Theoretically理论上, it makes品牌 it
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理论上说,它使得
11:22
as easy简单 to form形成 friendships友谊 halfway around the world世界
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跨地球两端交朋友
11:26
as opposed反对 to right next下一个 door.
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变得仿佛就住在隔壁一样。
11:29
What percentage百分比 of people's人们 friends朋友 on FacebookFacebook的
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那么,究竟有多少百分比,在Facebook上的朋友
11:35
are actually其实 located位于 in countries国家 other than where
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是来自于另一个国家的呢?
11:38
people we're analyzing分析 are based基于?
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这些人在我分析了人群中占比多少呢?
11:41
The answer回答 is probably大概 somewhere某处 between之间
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这个答案大概是在
11:44
10 to 15 percent百分.
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10%到15%之间。
11:47
Non-negligible不可忽略的, so we don't live生活 in an entirely完全 local本地
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不可否认,我们已经不再是生活于完全本地本国的
11:51
or national国民 world世界, but very, very far from the 95 percent百分 level水平
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孤立的世界中,但是,仍然离全球化程度达到95%
11:56
that you would expect期望, and the reason's原因的 very simple简单.
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的期望值很遥远,而这一现象的原因很简单。
12:00
We don't, or I hope希望 we don't, form形成 friendships友谊 at random随机
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因为我们不会,至少我希望我们不会, 在Facebook上
12:04
on FacebookFacebook的. The technology技术 is overlaid覆盖
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随便乱交朋友。科技虽然覆盖了
12:08
on a pre-existing预先存在的 matrix矩阵 of relationships关系 that we have,
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我们早就形成的人际关系,
12:13
and those relationships关系 are what the technology技术
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但这些人际关系恰恰是科技
12:16
doesn't quite相当 displace顶替. Those relationships关系 are why
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所无法替代的。正是这些既有的人际关系
12:19
we get far fewer than 95 percent百分 of our friends朋友
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我们才没有高达95%的朋友
12:23
being存在 located位于 in countries国家 other than where we are.
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是来自异邦。
12:27
So does all this matter? Or is globaloneyglobaloney
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我的这一发现是否重要?或者“全球胡话”
12:33
just a harmless无害 way of getting得到 people to pay工资 more attention注意
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只是用一种无害的方式,来让我们更多的去关注
12:38
to globalization-related全球化相关 issues问题?
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全球化相关的议题?
12:41
I want to suggest建议 that actually其实,
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我不得不确切的指出,
12:43
globaloneyglobaloney can be very harmful有害 to your health健康.
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“全球胡话”的观点是非常有害的。
12:48
First of all, recognizing认识 that the glass玻璃
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首先,就好比有一个玻璃杯
12:51
is only 10 to 20 percent百分 full充分 is critical危急 to seeing眼看
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它只被装填了十分之一左右
12:55
that there might威力 be potential潜在 for additional额外 gains收益
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那么它就可能有潜力额外装得更多的东西。
12:59
from additional额外 integration积分,
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那么它就可能有潜力额外装得更多的东西。
13:01
whereas if we thought we were already已经 there,
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然而如果我们认为它已经被盛满,
13:03
there would be no particular特定 point to pushing推动 harder更难.
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我们就没有理由去做更多的努力。
13:07
It's a little bit like, we wouldn't不会 be having a conference会议
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就像如果我们真的认为
13:10
on radical激进 openness透明度 if we already已经 thought we were totally完全 open打开
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我们已经很开放了
13:14
to all the kinds of influences影响 that are being存在 talked about
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我们就不会有任何会议
13:18
at this conference会议.
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来探讨积极开放的话题。
13:19
So being存在 accurate准确 about how limited有限 globalization全球化 levels水平 are
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所以正确看待全球化程度的有限性
13:24
is critical危急 to even being存在 able能够 to notice注意
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可以让我们更深刻的认识到
13:27
that there might威力 be room房间 for something more,
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仍然有大量进步的空间,
13:31
something that would contribute有助于 further进一步 to global全球 welfare福利.
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可以对全球福址有进一步的贡献。
13:35
Which哪一个 brings带来 me to my second第二 point.
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这就牵连到我的第二个观点。
13:37
Avoiding避免 overstatement言过其实 is also very helpful有帮助
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避免过高评价全球化是有好处的
13:42
because it reduces减少 and in some cases even reverses逆转
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因为它降低了,甚至扭转了那些
13:46
some of the fears恐惧 that people have about globalization全球化.
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反对全球化的人心中怀有的恐惧。
13:51
So I actually其实 spend most of my "World世界 3.0" book
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所以我在《World 3.0》中花了大量篇幅
13:55
working加工 through通过 a litany一连串 of market市场 failures故障 and fears恐惧
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来处理一连串的市场失效和担忧
13:59
that people have that they worry担心 globalization全球化 is going to exacerbate加剧.
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人们非常担心全球化可能对市场带来的恶化。
14:04
I'm obviously明显 not going to be able能够 to do that for you today今天,
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我显然已经无法在今天向大家展示这些,
14:08
so let me just present当下 to you two headlines新闻头条
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所以就让我以两个标题
14:11
as an illustration插图 of what I have in mind心神.
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来陈述我的论点。
14:14
Think of France法国 and the current当前 debate辩论 about immigration移民.
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想想目前法国针对移民的议题。
14:19
When you ask people in France法国 what percentage百分比
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当你询问在法国人口中
14:22
of the French法国 population人口 is immigrants移民,
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到底有多少百分比是移民,
14:24
the answer回答 is about 24 percent百分. That's their guess猜测.
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将得到他们猜测的数字,大概是24%。
14:29
Maybe realizing实现 that the number is just eight percent百分
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如果意识到实际量只有8%
14:33
might威力 help cool some of the superheated过热 rhetoric修辞
237
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那可能会让那些充斥在移民议题中的
14:38
that we see around the immigration移民 issue问题.
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过激言论冷却。
14:41
Or to take an even more striking引人注目 example,
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或者,再举一个突出的例子,
14:45
when the Chicago芝加哥 Council评议会 on Foreign国外 Relations关系
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当芝加哥对外关系委员会
14:47
did a survey调查 of Americans美国人, asking them to guess猜测
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作了一份调查,让美国人猜猜
14:51
what percentage百分比 of the federal联邦 budget预算 went to foreign国外 aid援助,
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联邦的预算中占有多少比例是用在国际援助上,
14:55
the guess猜测 was 30 percent百分, which哪一个 is
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猜测的普遍值是30%,这确实略微超过了实际水平——
14:59
slightly in excess过量 of the actual实际 level水平 — ("actually其实 about ... 1%") (Laughter笑声) —
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(真实值只有1%)。(笑声)
15:04
of U.S. governmental政府 commitments承诺 to federal联邦 aid援助.
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略微超过美国政府承诺的联邦政府补贴。
15:07
The reassuring令人欣慰 thing about this particular特定 survey调查 was,
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这一调查让我们可以宽心,
15:11
when it was pointed out to people how far
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当我们向民众指出
15:14
their estimates估计 were from the actual实际 data数据,
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估算值和实际数据相距甚远时,
15:17
some of them — not all of them — seemed似乎 to become成为
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我相信会有一些人,会变得
15:20
more willing愿意 to consider考虑 increases增加 in foreign国外 aid援助.
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更加愿意去增加对外援助。
15:24
So foreign国外 aid援助 is actually其实 a great way
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国际援助事实上很适合
15:27
of sort分类 of wrapping包皮 up here, because
252
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用来做今天的收尾,因为
15:30
if you think about it, what I've been talking about today今天
253
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如果你回想一下,今天我一直在谈的
15:33
is this notion概念 -- very uncontroversial没有争议 amongst其中包括 economists经济学家 --
254
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这个经济学家都同意的概念:
15:37
that most things are very home-biased家庭偏置.
255
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许多事情都是存在着本土偏重。
15:40
"Foreign国外 aid援助 is the most aid援助 to poor较差的 people,"
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“国际援助是对穷人的最大帮助”
15:44
is about the most home-biased家庭偏置 thing you can find.
257
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就是你能想到最本土偏重的事情。
15:47
If you look at the OECD经合组织 countries国家 and how much
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观察一下那些经济合作组织的成员国
15:50
they spend per domestic国内 poor较差的 person,
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将他们花在一个本国穷人身上的经费,
15:53
and compare比较 it with how much they spend
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比上他们花费在
15:56
per poor较差的 person in poor较差的 countries国家,
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那些穷困国家的穷人身上的金额的比值,
16:00
the ratioBranko布兰科 Milanovic诺维奇 at the World世界 Bank银行 did the calculations计算
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这一比率——世界银行的米兰诺维奇作了计算
16:04
turns out to be about 30,000 to one.
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是大约30000:1。
16:09
Now of course课程, some of us, if we truly are cosmopolitan大都会,
264
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现在当然,如果我们真是四海一家,
16:15
would like to see that ratio being存在 brought down
265
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我们希望看到那个比例会降到
16:18
to one-is-to-one单是对一.
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1:1。
16:20
I'd like to make the suggestion建议 that we don't need to aim目标
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我的建议是,并不需要朝着这个目标前进,
16:24
for that to make substantial大量的 progress进展 from where we are.
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只需从目前所处的状态出发,去取得实质性进展。
16:28
If we simply只是 brought that ratio down to 15,000 to one,
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我们只要将比率改善成15000:1,
16:33
we would be meeting会议 those aid援助 targets目标 that were agreed同意
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就可以实现那些在20年前
16:36
at the Rio里约热内卢 Summit首脑 20 years年份 ago that the summit首脑
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里约峰会上所制定的援助目标
16:40
that ended结束 last week made制作 no further进一步 progress进展 on.
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这一目标即便在上周的高峰会议中,仍无进展。
16:44
So in summary概要, while radical激进 openness透明度 is great,
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所以总而言之,激进的开放主义是非常好的,
16:48
given特定 how closed关闭 we are,
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它能让我们更加靠近彼此,
16:50
even incremental增加的 openness透明度 could make things
275
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甚至渐进式的增加开放也会使事情得到
16:53
dramatically显着 better. Thank you very much. (Applause掌声)
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显著的改善。谢谢大家!(掌声)
16:56
(Applause掌声)
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2771
(掌声)
Translated by Zheqing Fang
Reviewed by dahong zhang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pankaj Ghemawat - Globalization researcher
Our world is not flat, says ecnomist Pankaj Ghemawat -- it's at best semi-globalized, with limited interactions between countries and economies.

Why you should listen

There seem to be two leading views of globalization: either that it is done and the world is flat (a view popularized by Tom Friedman) or that it has led to a world dominated by corporations (Naomi Klein). Pankaj Ghemawat disagrees with both -- and his case, backed by data, can be convincing. His most recent book, World 3.0, based on extensive research and backed up with abundant data, explores the true face of globalization--and shows that the world is not one vast market, but many small, interconnected, discrete entities, with varying degrees of openness to one another. That even the most open economies are still relatively closed. That we live in a world of semi-globalization at best. Ghemawat also refutes the assumption that globalization leads to homogeneization. According to The Economist, World 3.0 “should be read by anyone who wants to understand the most important economic development of our time.”

Ghemawat is a professor of strategic management at IESE Business School in Spain. In his latest work, he explores another kind of networked economy--the cross-border "geography" of Facebook and Twitter followers.

More profile about the speaker
Pankaj Ghemawat | Speaker | TED.com