ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Keith Chen - Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future.

Why you should listen

Does the future look like a different world to you, or more like an extension of the present? In an intriguing piece of research, Keith Chen suggests that your attitude about the future has a strong relationship to the language you speak. In a nutshell, some languages refer to the future using verb helpers like "will" and "shall," while others don't have specific verbs to refer to future actions. Chen correlated these two different language types with remarkably different rates of saving for the future (guess who saves more?). He calls this connection the "futurity" of languages. The paper is in the process of being published by the American Economic Review, and it's already generated discussion. Chen says: "While the data I analyze don’t allow me to completely understand what role language plays in these relationships, they suggest that there is something really remarkable to be explained about the interaction of language and economic decision-making. These correlations are so strong and survive such an aggressive set of controls, that the chances they arise by random lies somewhere between one in 10,000 and one in 10^32."

Chen excels in asking unusual questions to yield original results. Another work (with Yale colleague and TEDGlobal 2009 speaker Laurie Santos) examined how monkeys view economic risk--with surprisingly humanlike irrationality. While a working paper asks a surprising, if rhetorical, question: Does it make economic sense for a woman to become a physician?

Chen is currently Uber's Head of Economic Research and is an associate professor of economics at UCLA .

Read more about Chen's explorations »

More profile about the speaker
Keith Chen | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2012

Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?

基思·陈(Keith Chen):你存钱的能力跟你用的语言有关?

Filmed:
1,880,497 views

经济学家能从语言学家那里学到什么?行为经济学家基思·陈(Keith Chen)介绍了他的研究中发现的奇妙关联:没有区分将来时态的语言——“明天下雨”而不是“下明天的雨”——跟储蓄比例有很强的相关性。阅读更多基思·陈的发现 »
- Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
The global全球 economic经济 financial金融 crisis危机 has reignited重燃 public上市 interest利益
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全球金融危机让人们对早在亚当·斯密时代
00:20
in something that's actually其实 one of the oldest最老的 questions问题 in economics经济学,
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就被提出的一个古老的经济学问题
00:24
dating约会 back to at least最小 before Adam亚当 Smith工匠.
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重新产生了兴趣:
00:27
And that is, why is it that countries国家 with seemingly似乎 similar类似 economies经济 and institutions机构
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“为什么经济规模和政治体制看起来相似的国家之间,
00:32
can display显示 radically根本 different不同 savings behavior行为?
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国民的储蓄习惯差别如此之大?”
00:35
Now, many许多 brilliant辉煌 economists经济学家 have spent花费 their entire整个 lives生活 working加工 on this question,
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已经有很多经济学大师花毕生精力研究了这个问题,
00:40
and as a field领域 we've我们已经 made制作 a tremendous巨大 amount of headway前进
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取得了很大的进展,我们对这个问题
00:43
and we understand理解 a lot about this.
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也有了很深的认识。
00:46
What I'm here to talk with you about today今天 is an intriguing奇妙 new hypothesis假设
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我今天要跟大家分享的是一个很有意思的假说,
00:49
and some surprisingly出奇 powerful强大 new findings发现 that I've been working加工 on
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我研究了人们说的语言的(语法)结构
00:53
about the link链接 between之间 the structure结构体 of the language语言 you speak说话
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和他们的存钱习惯之间的关系,
00:58
and how you find yourself你自己 with the propensity倾向 to save保存.
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并得到了一些意外的新发现。
01:02
Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates利率, a little bit about language语言,
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我们先介绍国民储蓄比率,再介绍语言差别,
01:05
and then I'll draw that connection连接.
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然后我们把这两者联系起来。
01:08
Let's start开始 by thinking思维 about the member会员 countries国家 of the OECD经合组织,
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我们从OECD国家开始考虑,
01:12
or the Organization组织 of Economic经济 Cooperation合作 and Development发展.
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OECD即“经济合作与发展组织”。
01:16
OECD经合组织 countries国家, by and large, you should think about these
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基本上OECD包含的都是
01:20
as the richest首富, most industrialized工业化 countries国家 in the world世界.
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世界上最富有的工业化国家。
01:22
And by joining加盟 the OECD经合组织, they were affirming肯定 a common共同 commitment承诺
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而且加入OECD组织的国家都需要符合
01:26
to democracy民主, open打开 markets市场 and free自由 trade贸易.
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民主政府、开放市场和自由贸易等要求。
01:30
Despite尽管 all of these similarities相似之处, we see huge巨大 differences分歧 in savings behavior行为.
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虽然这些国家都是很相似的,但是他们的存储行为差别很大。
01:34
So all the way over on the left of this graph图形,
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看这张图的左边,
01:37
what you see is many许多 OECD经合组织 countries国家 saving保存 over a quarter25美分硬币 of their GDPGDP every一切 year,
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你会看到多数OECD成员国年储蓄率超过GDP的1/4,
01:42
and some OECD经合组织 countries国家 saving保存 over a third第三 of their GDPGDP per year.
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而部分成员国的年储蓄率达到了GDP的1/3。
01:46
Holding保持 down the right flank侧翼 of the OECD经合组织, all the way on the other side, is Greece希腊.
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在图右侧的这些国家,最右边的是希腊,
01:51
And what you can see is that over the last 25 years年份,
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我们看到在过去25年
01:54
Greece希腊 has barely仅仅 managed管理 to save保存 more than 10 percent百分 of their GDPGDP.
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希腊的国民储蓄率刚超过10%。
01:58
It should be noted注意, of course课程, that the United联合的 States状态 and the U.K. are the next下一个 in line线.
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需要注意美国和英国紧随其后。
02:05
Now that we see these huge巨大 differences分歧 in savings rates利率,
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现在我们看到存储比率的巨大差别,
02:08
how is it possible可能 that language语言 might威力 have something to do with these differences分歧?
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但是语言跟这种差异有什么关系呢?
02:11
Let me tell you a little bit about how languages语言 fundamentally从根本上 differ不同.
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让我告诉你语言之间的本质差异所在。
02:15
Linguists语言学家 and cognitive认知 scientists科学家们 have been exploring探索 this question for many许多 years年份 now.
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语言学家和认知科学家已经研究这个问题很多年了,
02:20
And then I'll draw the connection连接 between之间 these two behaviors行为.
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而我今天将会将这两种行为联系起来。
02:25
Many许多 of you have probably大概 already已经 noticed注意到 that I'm Chinese中文.
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你们可能注意到了我是华裔。
02:27
I grew成长 up in the Midwest中西部 of the United联合的 States状态.
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我在美国中西部长大。
02:30
And something I realized实现 quite相当 early on
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我很小的时候就意识到了
02:33
was that the Chinese中文 language语言 forced被迫 me to speak说话 about and --
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中文在家庭关系的叫法——
02:36
in fact事实, more fundamentally从根本上 than that --
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实际上更本质的——
02:39
ever so slightly forced被迫 me to think about family家庭 in very different不同 ways方法.
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甚至在思维方式上都(跟英文)有很大的不同。
02:43
Now, how might威力 that be? Let me give you an example.
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怎么解释呢,我举个例子。
02:45
Suppose假设 I were talking with you and I was introducing引入 you to my uncle叔叔.
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假设你我在聊天,提到了我的叔叔(uncle)。
02:50
You understood了解 exactly究竟 what I just said in English英语.
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你完全理解这个英文的意思。
02:53
If we were speaking请讲 Mandarin普通话 Chinese中文 with each other, though虽然,
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但是如果我们用普通话聊天,
02:56
I wouldn't不会 have that luxury豪华.
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我就头疼了。
02:58
I wouldn't不会 have been able能够 to convey传达 so little information信息.
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这里面传递的信息如此之多。
03:00
What my language语言 would have forced被迫 me to do,
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我无法用中文告诉你
03:03
instead代替 of just telling告诉 you, "This is my uncle叔叔,"
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这是我的“叔叔”,
03:05
is to tell you a tremendous巨大 amount of additional额外 information信息.
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而是会附加上更多的(家庭关系)信息。
03:08
My language语言 would force me to tell you
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如果用中文,我就要一并告诉你
03:10
whether是否 or not this was an uncle叔叔 on my mother's母亲 side or my father's父亲的 side,
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这个人是我爸爸这边的还是妈妈这边的
03:13
whether是否 this was an uncle叔叔 by marriage婚姻 or by birth分娩,
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是婚姻关系还是血缘关系;
03:16
and if this man was my father's父亲的 brother哥哥,
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如果是我爸爸的兄弟,
03:19
whether是否 he was older旧的 than or younger更年轻 than my father父亲.
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年纪比我爸爸大还是比我爸爸小。
03:21
All of this information信息 is obligatory必修. Chinese中文 doesn't let me ignore忽视 it.
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这些都是必须的,中文无法省略这些信息。
03:26
And in fact事实, if I want to speak说话 correctly正确地,
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事实上,如果要我不弄错的话
03:28
Chinese中文 forces军队 me to constantly经常 think about it.
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我就要不断的去想这之间的关系。
03:31
Now, that fascinated入迷 me endlessly不休 as a child儿童,
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这是小时候让我很好奇的事情,
03:35
but what fascinates着迷 me even more today今天 as an economist经济学家
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而现在我作为一个经济学家更加好奇的是
03:38
is that some of these same相同 differences分歧 carry携带 through通过 to how languages语言 speak说话 about time.
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不同的语言在如何表示时间上的差异。
03:43
So for example, if I'm speaking请讲 in English英语, I have to speak说话 grammatically语法 differently不同
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例如,在英语中需要用明确的语法变化来表示不同的时态,
03:48
if I'm talking about past过去 rain, "It rained下雨 yesterday昨天,"
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如果我说过去下过雨:“It rained yesterday”
03:50
current当前 rain, "It is raining下雨 now,"
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正在下雨:“It is raining now”
03:53
or future未来 rain, "It will rain tomorrow明天."
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将要下雨:It will rain tomorrow.”
03:55
Notice注意 that English英语 requires要求 a lot more information信息 with respect尊重 to the timing定时 of events事件.
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注意英语中需要很多的元素来表示事件发生的时间。
04:00
Why? Because I have to consider考虑 that
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因为我需要根据我要说的事件的时间
04:02
and I have to modify修改 what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."
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来调整自己要说的话,“It will rain”或“It's going to rain.”
04:07
It's simply只是 not permissible可允许的 in English英语 to say, "It rain tomorrow明天."
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英语语法禁止你说成“It rain tomorrow”。
04:11
In contrast对比 to that, that's almost几乎 exactly究竟 what you would say in Chinese中文.
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中文的表达方式跟英文恰恰相反。
04:15
A Chinese中文 speaker扬声器 can basically基本上 say something
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一个说中文的人说出来的话
04:17
that sounds声音 very strange奇怪 to an English英语 speaker's音箱的 ears耳朵.
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会让一个说英文的人听起来怪怪的。
04:20
They can say, "Yesterday昨天 it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow明天 it rain."
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他们会说,“昨天下雨”、“现在下雨”、“明天下雨”。
04:24
In some deep sense, Chinese中文 doesn't divide划分 up the time spectrum光谱
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从更深的角度来看,中文并没有将时间进行严格的分割,
04:28
in the same相同 way that English英语 forces军队 us to constantly经常 do in order订购 to speak说话 correctly正确地.
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而英文则将此作为语言正确与否的准则之一。
04:35
Is this difference区别 in languages语言
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这种差异是不是
04:36
only between之间 very, very distantly远亲 related有关 languages语言, like English英语 and Chinese中文?
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只有在中文和英文差异这么大的语言之间才会有?
04:40
Actually其实, no.
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实际上,不是。
04:41
So many许多 of you know, in this room房间, that English英语 is a Germanic日耳曼 language语言.
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你们当中的很多人都知道英语属于日尔曼语系。
04:45
What you may可能 not have realized实现 is that English英语 is actually其实 an outlier局外人.
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你们可能没有意识到英语算是这个语系的一个异类。
04:49
It is the only Germanic日耳曼 language语言 that requires要求 this.
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英语是日尔曼语系中唯一需要这些的。
04:52
For example, most other Germanic日耳曼 language语言 speakers音箱
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例如,说日尔曼语系的人
04:55
feel completely全然 comfortable自在 talking about rain tomorrow明天
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会很自然的用以下的话表达
04:58
by saying, "Morgen摩根 regnetregnet esES,"
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明天下雨:“Morgen regnet es”
05:00
quite相当 literally按照字面 to an English英语 ear, "It rain tomorrow明天."
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说英语的人听了就类似“It rain tomorrow.”
05:04
This led me, as a behavioral行为的 economist经济学家, to an intriguing奇妙 hypothesis假设.
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这让我,作为一个行为经济学家,想到一个有趣的假设。
05:09
Could how you speak说话 about time, could how your language语言 forces军队 you to think about time,
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你描述时间的方式,你的语言迫使你思考时间的方式,
05:13
affect影响 your propensity倾向 to behave表现 across横过 time?
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是否会影响到你对不同时间段的偏好?
05:17
You speak说话 English英语, a futuredfutured language语言.
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你们说的是英语,区分将来时态的。
05:20
And what that means手段 is that every一切 time you discuss讨论 the future未来,
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这意味着每次你谈论到未来的时间
05:23
or any kind of a future未来 event事件,
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或者未来要发生的事情时,
05:25
grammatically语法 you're forced被迫 to cleave劈开 that from the present当下
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你需要在语法层面将未来和现在分来,
05:28
and treat对待 it as if it's something viscerally发自内心 different不同.
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就像是两者之间有本质不同一样。
05:31
Now suppose假设 that that visceral内脏 difference区别
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现在假设这种语言上的差别
05:33
makes品牌 you subtly巧妙的 dissociate游离 the future未来 from the present当下 every一切 time you speak说话.
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让你每次说话的时候都意识到当下和未来细微差别。
05:38
If that's true真正 and it makes品牌 the future未来 feel
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如果这个假设成立,
05:39
like something more distant遥远 and more different不同 from the present当下,
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会导致“未来”看起来跟“现在”更加遥远一些,
05:42
that's going to make it harder更难 to save保存.
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要你存钱就会困难一些。
05:45
If, on the other hand, you speak说话 a futurelessfutureless language语言,
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另一方面,如果你的语言没有区分将来时态,
05:48
the present当下 and the future未来, you speak说话 about them identically相同.
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你说现在和未来的句式是一样的。
05:51
If that subtly巧妙的 nudges轻推 you to feel about them identically相同,
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这点细微的差别会让你觉得他们是一样的,
05:54
that's going to make it easier更轻松 to save保存.
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会让你更倾向于存钱。
05:56
Now this is a fanciful撒娇的 theory理论.
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现在我有了一套奇特的理论。
05:59
I'm a professor教授, I get paid支付 to have fanciful撒娇的 theories理论.
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我是教授,教授就是生产奇思怪想的。
06:02
But how would you actually其实 go about testing测试 such这样 a theory理论?
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但是你怎么检验这样一套理论呢?
06:06
Well, what I did with that was to access访问 the linguistics语言学 literature文学.
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我阅读了大量的语言学文献作为调研。
06:10
And interestingly有趣 enough足够, there are pockets口袋 of futurelessfutureless language语言 speakers音箱
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有意思的是,没有将来时态的语言
06:15
situated位于 all over the world世界.
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全球各地都有。
06:16
This is a pocket口袋 of futurelessfutureless language语言 speakers音箱 in Northern北方 Europe欧洲.
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欧洲北部也有一些语言没有将来时态。
06:20
Interestingly有趣的是 enough足够, when you start开始 to crank曲柄 the data数据,
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有意思的是,当你开始收集数据时,
06:23
these pockets口袋 of futurelessfutureless language语言 speakers音箱 all around the world世界
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你就会发现这些说没有将来时态的语言的国家,
06:26
turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's世界 best最好 savers储户.
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很大程度上,恰恰是最喜欢储蓄的国家。
06:30
Just to give you a hint暗示 of that,
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为了给你们一点提示,
06:32
let's look back at that OECD经合组织 graph图形 that we were talking about.
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请看看刚才提到的OECD储蓄比例图。
06:35
What you see is that these bars酒吧 are systematically系统 taller
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你看到相比那些语言中
06:38
and systematically系统 shifted to the left
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区别将来时态的国家,
06:40
compared相比 to these bars酒吧 which哪一个 are the members会员 of the OECD经合组织 that speak说话 futuredfutured languages语言.
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没有区分时态的国家的储蓄率更高并且总体上更靠左边。
06:45
What is the average平均 difference区别 here?
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平均的差值有多大?
06:46
Five percentage百分比 points of your GDPGDP saved保存 per year.
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约占各国每年GDP的5%。
06:50
Over 25 years年份 that has huge巨大 long-run长跑 effects效果 on the wealth财富 of your nation国家.
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这种差别持续了25年,对国家总体财富有着长远的影响。
06:54
Now while these findings发现 are suggestive提示,
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现在虽然这些发现能说明问题,
06:57
countries国家 can be different不同 in so many许多 different不同 ways方法
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但是比较的国家之间在很多很多方面都有差异,
06:59
that it's very, very difficult sometimes有时 to account帐户 for all of these possible可能 differences分歧.
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有时候很难将这些差异归结为某个原因。
07:03
What I'm going to show显示 you, though虽然, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,
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我将想你们展示,我过去一年收集到的,
07:08
which哪一个 is trying to gather收集 all of the largest最大 datasets数据集
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作为经济学家能够得到的
07:10
that we have access访问 to as economists经济学家,
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所有的大数据集,
07:12
and I'm going to try and strip跳闸 away all of those possible可能 differences分歧,
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并且我正在尝试将国家之间可能的差异性消除
07:16
hoping希望 to get this relationship关系 to break打破.
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希望可以为(我理论提到的)这段关系提供证据。
07:18
And just in summary概要, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break打破.
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总体而言,无论我目前如何尝试,我都无法将这种关联消除。
07:23
Let me show显示 you how far you can do that.
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让我告诉你们,你们能做到什么程度。
07:25
One way to imagine想像 that is I gather收集 large datasets数据集 from around the world世界.
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一种可能的验证方式就是收集了全球范围的(经济)数据信息。
07:30
So for example, there is the Survey调查 of Health健康, [Aging老化] and Retirement退休 in Europe欧洲.
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例如,欧洲的健康、老龄化及退休情况统计。
07:33
From this dataset数据集 you actually其实 learn学习 that retired退休 European欧洲的 families家庭
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通过这个数据采集工作你会发现欧洲退休老人
07:37
are extremely非常 patient患者 with survey调查 takers考生.
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对于调查人员是极度有耐心的。
07:40
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
07:42
So imagine想像 that you're a retired退休 household家庭 in Belgium比利时 and someone有人 comes to your front面前 door.
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想象一下你是一个比利时的退休老人,有一天有人跑来敲你家的门。
07:46
"Excuse借口 me, would you mind心神 if I peruse细读 your stock股票 portfolio投资组合?
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“打扰了,你能跟我说下你的股票投资情况么?
07:51
Do you happen发生 to know how much your house is worth价值? Do you mind心神 telling告诉 me?
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你知道自己的房子值多少钱么?方便告诉我么?
07:54
Would you happen发生 to have a hallway门厅 that's more than 10 meters long?
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你的走廊有10米这么长么?
07:57
If you do, would you mind心神 if I timed时控 how long it took you to walk步行 down that hallway门厅?
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如果有,你能走一次让我看看需要多长时间么?
08:02
Would you mind心神 squeezing挤压 as hard as you can, in your dominant优势 hand, this device设备
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你能否用你的惯用手,用力握这个设备,
08:06
so I can measure测量 your grip strength强度?
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让我测试一下你的握力?
08:07
How about blowing into this tube so I can measure测量 your lung capacity容量?"
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你能否吹一下这个管子,让我测量一下你的肺活量?
08:11
The survey调查 takes over a day.
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一天过去了。
08:14
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
08:16
Combine结合 that with a Demographic人口 and Health健康 Survey调查
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将这些数据与USAID(美国国际开发署)
08:20
collected by USAID你说 in developing发展 countries国家 in Africa非洲, for example,
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在非洲发展中国家的人口健康统计数据结合
08:24
which哪一个 that survey调查 actually其实 can go so far as to directly measure测量 the HIVHIV status状态
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USAID的数据很详细,例如,尼日利亚农村家庭中
08:29
of families家庭 living活的 in, for example, rural乡村 Nigeria尼日利亚.
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HIV感染情况等一手信息。
08:32
Combine结合 that with a world世界 value survey调查,
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将这些数据与世界价值调查(value survey)结合,
08:34
which哪一个 measures措施 the political政治 opinions意见 and, fortunately幸好 for me, the savings behaviors行为
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后者统计政治观点和,很幸运的,
08:39
of millions百万 of families家庭 in hundreds数以百计 of countries国家 around the world世界.
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全世界上百个国家上亿家庭的存储行为信息。
08:43
Take all of that data数据, combine结合 it, and this map地图 is what you get.
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获得所有这些数据,综合起来,你就得到这样的一张图。
08:47
What you find is nine countries国家 around the world世界
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你会发现全球范围内有九个国家
08:49
that have significant重大 native本地人 populations人群
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其国民中有相当多的人使用
08:52
which哪一个 speak说话 both futurelessfutureless and futuredfutured languages语言.
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没有区分将来时态和区分将来时态的语言。
08:56
And what I'm going to do is form形成 statistical统计 matched匹配 pairs
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我接下来要做的就是通过统计匹配的方式
09:00
between之间 families家庭 that are nearly几乎 identical相同 on every一切 dimension尺寸 that I can measure测量,
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找到各个方面都近似相同的家庭,
09:05
and then I'm going to explore探索 whether是否 or not the link链接 between之间 language语言 and savings holds持有
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然后去看看在控制了这些变量之后
09:09
even after controlling控制 for all of these levels水平.
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语言和储蓄之间是否还存在着联系。
09:12
What are the characteristics特点 we can control控制 for?
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我们能够控制那些特征?
09:15
Well I'm going to match比赛 families家庭 on country国家 of birth分娩 and residence住宅,
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我考虑的匹配包括出生地和居住地,
09:17
the demographics人口统计学 -- what sex性别, their age年龄 --
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人口信息——性别、年龄——
09:20
their income收入 level水平 within their own拥有 country国家,
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相对居住国的收入水平,
09:22
their educational教育性 achievement成就, a lot about their family家庭 structure结构体.
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受教育程度,以及家庭成员结构。
09:25
It turns out there are six different不同 ways方法 to be married已婚 in Europe欧洲.
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我发现在欧洲就有六种不同的婚姻组合方式。
09:28
And most granularly细粒度, I break打破 them down by religion宗教
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最精细的分类方法是按照宗教信仰进行分类——
09:33
where there are 72 categories类别 of religions宗教 in the world世界 --
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将全球分成了72个不同的宗教团体——
09:36
so an extreme极端 level水平 of granularity粒度.
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非常精细的分类了。
09:38
There are 1.4 billion十亿 different不同 ways方法 that a family家庭 can find itself本身.
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14亿家庭每个家庭都有独特性。
09:42
Now effectively有效 everything I'm going to tell you from now on
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现在我要说的比较,都是在这些
09:46
is only comparing比较 these basically基本上 nearly几乎 identical相同 families家庭.
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各个方面近似一致的家庭之间进行的。
09:49
It's getting得到 as close as possible可能 to the thought experiment实验
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让我们假设这个实验找到了
09:52
of finding发现 two families家庭 both of whom live生活 in Brussels布鲁塞尔
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布鲁塞尔的两个家庭,
09:55
who are identical相同 on every一切 single one of these dimensions尺寸,
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在别的每个方面都很相似,
09:58
but one of whom speaks说话 Flemish佛兰芒语 and one of whom speaks说话 French法国;
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但是一个家庭说佛兰芒语(Flemish)另一个家庭说法语;
10:01
or two families家庭 that live生活 in a rural乡村 district in Nigeria尼日利亚,
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或是两个住在尼日利亚农村的家庭,
10:04
one of whom speaks说话 Hausa豪萨语 and one of whom speaks说话 Igbo伊博.
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一个说豪萨语(Hausa)另一户说伊博语(Igbo)。
10:07
Now even after all of this granular粒状 level水平 of control控制,
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现在在这么精细的控制水平下,
10:11
do futurelessfutureless language语言 speakers音箱 seem似乎 to save保存 more?
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语言的时态特点是否还会影响到储蓄习惯?
10:14
Yes, futurelessfutureless language语言 speakers音箱, even after this level水平 of control控制,
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是的,语言中没有区分将来时态的人,
10:18
are 30 percent百分 more likely容易 to report报告 having saved保存 in any given特定 year.
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在任何给定年份中储蓄的比例都要高30%。
10:22
Does this have cumulative累积的 effects效果?
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这种差异是否有累积效应?
10:24
Yes, by the time they retire退休, futurelessfutureless language语言 speakers音箱, holding保持 constant不变 their income收入,
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是的,当他们退休的时候,语言中没有区分将来时态的人,
10:28
are going to retire退休 with 25 percent百分 more in savings.
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在收入稳定不变的情况下,要多25%的储蓄。
10:31
Can we push this data数据 even further进一步?
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我们能够得到更多的结论么?
10:34
Yes, because I just told you, we actually其实 collect搜集 a lot of health健康 data数据 as economists经济学家.
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正如我告诉你的,我们出于经济研究目的收集了很多的医疗健康数据。
10:39
Now how can we think about health健康 behaviors行为 to think about savings?
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我们能将健康相关的行为比作储蓄行为么?
10:43
Well, think about smoking抽烟, for example.
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例如,吸烟这个事情,
10:46
Smoking抽烟 is in some deep sense negative savings.
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吸烟可以看作反向的储蓄。
10:49
If savings is current当前 pain疼痛 in exchange交换 for future未来 pleasure乐趣,
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如果储蓄是增加当下的痛苦增加未来的快感,
10:52
smoking抽烟 is just the opposite对面.
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那么吸烟的效果正好相反。
10:54
It's current当前 pleasure乐趣 in exchange交换 for future未来 pain疼痛.
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吸烟用未来的痛苦换取当下的快感。
10:57
What we should expect期望 then is the opposite对面 effect影响.
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我们假设吸烟跟语言时态的关系应该跟储蓄的关系相反。
11:00
And that's exactly究竟 what we find.
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我们的统计支持了我们的推断。
11:01
FuturelessFutureless language语言 speakers音箱 are 20 to 24 percent百分 less likely容易
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语言没有区分将来时态的家庭成员相比而言
11:05
to be smoking抽烟 at any given特定 point in time compared相比 to identical相同 families家庭,
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在任何时间段中吸烟的可能性相比都要少20%到24%,
11:08
and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent百分 less likely容易
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在他们退休的时候超重的可能性
11:11
to be obese肥胖 by the time they retire退休,
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相比少13%到17%,
11:14
and they're going to report报告 being存在 21 percent百分 more likely容易
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在最后一次性行为中
11:16
to have used a condom避孕套 in their last sexual有性 encounter遭遇.
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使用安全套的概率要高21%。
11:18
I could go on and on with the list名单 of differences分歧 that you can find.
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我可以这么一直不停地列举下去。
11:22
It's almost几乎 impossible不可能 not to find a savings behavior行为
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很难找到语言时态特征对于储蓄行为
11:26
for which哪一个 this strong强大 effect影响 isn't present当下.
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没有影响的实例。
11:28
My linguistics语言学 and economics经济学 colleagues同事 at Yale耶鲁 and I are just starting开始 to do this work
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我和在耶鲁的的语言学同事和经济学同事刚刚开始这项研究,
11:33
and really explore探索 and understand理解 the ways方法 that these subtle微妙 nudges轻推
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探索和理解每次我们说话的时候
11:38
cause原因 us to think more or less about the future未来 every一切 single time we speak说话.
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(语言)对于我们的未来的轻微的影响。
11:44
Ultimately最终,, the goal目标,
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最终的目标是,
11:46
once一旦 we understand理解 how these subtle微妙 effects效果 can change更改 our decision决定 making制造,
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一旦我们理解了这些微妙的效果是如何影响到我们的决策的,
11:50
we want to be able能够 to provide提供 people tools工具
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我们希望可以为人们提供
11:53
so that they can consciously自觉 make themselves他们自己 better savers储户
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更好的工具,让他们在未来
11:56
and more conscious意识 investors投资者 in their own拥有 future未来.
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理性的存钱,理性的投资。
11:59
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
12:01
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Youngyoung Lee
Reviewed by Psycho Decoder

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Keith Chen - Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future.

Why you should listen

Does the future look like a different world to you, or more like an extension of the present? In an intriguing piece of research, Keith Chen suggests that your attitude about the future has a strong relationship to the language you speak. In a nutshell, some languages refer to the future using verb helpers like "will" and "shall," while others don't have specific verbs to refer to future actions. Chen correlated these two different language types with remarkably different rates of saving for the future (guess who saves more?). He calls this connection the "futurity" of languages. The paper is in the process of being published by the American Economic Review, and it's already generated discussion. Chen says: "While the data I analyze don’t allow me to completely understand what role language plays in these relationships, they suggest that there is something really remarkable to be explained about the interaction of language and economic decision-making. These correlations are so strong and survive such an aggressive set of controls, that the chances they arise by random lies somewhere between one in 10,000 and one in 10^32."

Chen excels in asking unusual questions to yield original results. Another work (with Yale colleague and TEDGlobal 2009 speaker Laurie Santos) examined how monkeys view economic risk--with surprisingly humanlike irrationality. While a working paper asks a surprising, if rhetorical, question: Does it make economic sense for a woman to become a physician?

Chen is currently Uber's Head of Economic Research and is an associate professor of economics at UCLA .

Read more about Chen's explorations »

More profile about the speaker
Keith Chen | Speaker | TED.com