ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.

Why you should listen

Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.

In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.

Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

Bill Gates: The next outbreak? We're not ready

比尔盖茨: 下次的疫情暴发?我们还没准备好

Filmed:
3,303,597 views

在2014年这世界幸免了一场埃博拉病毒的暴发,这都要感谢成千上万无私的卫生工作者的奉献和太好的运气。事后看来我们应该可以做得更好。所以现在正是行动的时候。比尔盖兹建议将我们所有的好主意集合起来付诸行动,例如模拟情景,疫苗研发和卫生工作者训练等等。正如他所说,“无需惊慌,但我们必须未雨绸缪。”
- Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:17
When I was a kid孩子,
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当我还是小孩时,
我们最担心的灾害是核战争。
00:19
the disaster灾害 we worried担心 about most
was a nuclear war战争.
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00:23
That's why we had a barrel like this
down in our basement地下室,
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所以我们在地下室有个这样的筒子,
00:27
filled填充 with cans of food餐饮 and water.
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装满了罐头食物和水。
00:30
When the nuclear attack攻击 came来了,
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当核战争爆发时,
我们就要躲到地下室去,
蹲低身子并靠那个筒子维生。
00:31
we were supposed应该 to go downstairs楼下,
hunker蹲下 down, and eat out of that barrel.
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00:37
Today今天 the greatest最大 risk风险
of global全球 catastrophe灾难
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今天的全球灾难最大的危险
00:41
doesn't look like this.
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看起来已不像这样了。
事实上,会像这样。
00:44
Instead代替, it looks容貌 like this.
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如果有什么东西在未来几十年里
可以杀掉上千万人,
00:48
If anything kills杀死 over 10 million百万 people
in the next下一个 few少数 decades几十年,
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00:53
it's most likely容易 to be
a highly高度 infectious传染病 virus病毒
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那比较有可能是个高度传染的病毒,
00:57
rather than a war战争.
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而不是战争。
00:59
Not missiles导弹, but microbes微生物.
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不是导弹,而是微生物。
01:03
Now, part部分 of the reason原因 for this is that
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部分的理由是因为
01:05
we've我们已经 invested投资 a huge巨大 amount
in nuclear deterrents威慑.
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我们在核威慑上投注了很大的
精力和金钱。
01:10
But we've我们已经 actually其实 invested投资 very little
in a system系统 to stop an epidemic疫情.
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但是我们在防止疫情的
系统上却投资很少。
我们还没有准备好预防
下一场大疫情的发生。
01:16
We're not ready准备 for the next下一个 epidemic疫情.
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让我们看看埃博拉病毒。
01:20
Let's look at Ebola埃博拉病毒.
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01:21
I'm sure all of you read about it
in the newspaper报纸,
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我相信大家在报纸上
都有读到这样的新闻,
01:25
lots of tough强硬 challenges挑战.
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充满了许多艰难的挑战。
01:27
I followed其次 it carefully小心
through通过 the case案件 analysis分析 tools工具
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用我们追踪消灭脊髓灰质炎(小儿麻痹)的
案例分析工具,
01:30
we use to track跟踪 polio脊髓灰质炎 eradication根除.
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我仔细地追踪这病毒的发展。
01:35
And as you look at what went on,
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随着疫情的发展我们可以看到,
01:37
the problem问题 wasn't that there was a system系统
that didn't work well enough足够,
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问题不在于我们没有一套
可以使用的系统,
01:42
the problem问题 was that we
didn't have a system系统 at all.
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而是我们根本没有任何系统。
事实上我们可以看到有几个
很明显的不足。
01:46
In fact事实, there's some pretty漂亮 obvious明显
key missing失踪 pieces.
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01:51
We didn't have a group of epidemiologists流行病学家
ready准备 to go, who would have gone走了,
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我们找不到一群准备好了的流行病学家,
01:55
seen看到 what the disease疾病 was,
seen看到 how far it had spread传播.
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能去疫区看看病理和病情发展。
01:59
The case案件 reports报告 came来了 in on paper.
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病例都是由纸上报道传来的。
02:02
It was very delayed延迟
before they were put online线上
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信息传上线时已经很晚了,
02:04
and they were extremely非常 inaccurate不准确.
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此外还很不准确。
02:07
We didn't have a medical team球队 ready准备 to go.
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我们也找不到训练有素的医护小组。
02:09
We didn't have a way of preparing准备 people.
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我们没有一套让人们严阵以待的方法。
02:12
Now, Médecinsdecins SansSANS FrontiFrontières水库
did a great job工作 orchestrating策划 volunteers志愿者.
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目前,“无国界医生”
在动员志愿者上做了很大的贡献。
02:17
But even so, we were far slower比较慢
than we should have been
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但即使如此,我们调动数千名
工作者到疫区的速度
02:20
getting得到 the thousands数千 of workers工人
into these countries国家.
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还是十分差强人意的。
02:24
And a large epidemic疫情 would require要求 us
to have hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 of workers工人.
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大的疫情会需要我们动员
数十万的人员,
02:32
There was no one there
to look at treatment治疗 approaches方法.
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但我们没有任何人在研究治疗的方向。
02:37
No one to look at the diagnostics诊断.
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也没有人在看诊断的方法。
02:38
No one to figure数字 out
what tools工具 should be used.
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没有人在想该用什么工具。
02:42
As an example, we could have
taken采取 the blood血液 of survivors幸存者,
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举个例子来说,
我们也许可以抽取生还者的血液,
02:45
processed处理 it, and put that plasma等离子体
back in people to protect保护 them.
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处理过后,再将血浆注入
人体内来保护没得病的人。
02:51
But that was never tried试着.
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但是这个方法从来没有试过,
02:53
So there was a lot that was missing失踪.
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所以有很多事都还没来得及做。
02:55
And these things
are really a global全球 failure失败.
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而这的确是全球性的失败。
03:00
The WHO is funded资助 to monitor监控 epidemics流行病,
but not to do these things I talked about.
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世界卫生组织的目的是来监视流行病,
而不是来做我刚讲的事。
但是在电影中演的剧情又是另一回事。
03:07
Now, in the movies电影 it's quite相当 different不同.
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03:09
There's a group of handsome英俊
epidemiologists流行病学家 ready准备 to go,
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有一群很英俊的流行病学家准备就绪,
03:14
they move移动 in, they save保存 the day,
but that's just pure Hollywood好莱坞.
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他们到了疫区拯救了大家,
但这是纯好莱坞的剧情。
我们的准备不足 ,
可能会导致下一场疫情,
03:22
The failure失败 to prepare准备
could allow允许 the next下一个 epidemic疫情
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03:25
to be dramatically显着
more devastating破坏性的 than Ebola埃博拉病毒
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比埃博拉病毒的危害更严重。
03:30
Let's look at the progression级数
of Ebola埃博拉病毒 over this year.
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让我们看看埃博拉病毒在
过去一年中的发展。
03:36
About 10,000 people died死亡,
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大约死了一万人,
03:39
and nearly几乎 all were in the three
West西 African非洲人 countries国家.
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所有的死者都在西非的三个国家里。
03:43
There's three reasons原因 why
it didn't spread传播 more.
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之所以没有扩散的原因有三个。
03:46
The first is that there was a lot
of heroic英勇 work by the health健康 workers工人.
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第一个是卫生工作人员作的
很多英雄事迹。
03:50
They found发现 the people and they
prevented防止 more infections感染.
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他们找到很多病人
并防止了更多人得病。
03:54
The second第二 is the nature性质 of the virus病毒.
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第二个是病毒的特性,
03:56
Ebola埃博拉病毒 does not spread传播 through通过 the air空气.
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埃博拉病毒不是靠空气传染的。
03:59
And by the time you're contagious传染性的,
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等到你有足够的传染力时,
04:01
most people are so sick生病
that they're bedridden卧床不起的.
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大部分的人已经病得卧床不起了。
04:06
Third第三, it didn't get
into many许多 urban城市的 areas.
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第三个是因为病毒没有传到都会区。
04:10
And that was just luck运气.
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这纯粹是运气好。
04:12
If it had gotten得到 into a lot
more urban城市的 areas,
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如果病毒传到了都会区,
04:14
the case案件 numbers数字
would have been much larger.
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那么死亡的人数绝对不止于此。
04:17
So next下一个 time, we might威力 not be so lucky幸运.
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所以下一次我们可能不会这么幸运了。
04:21
You can have a virus病毒 where people
feel well enough足够 while they're infectious传染病
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有的病毒可能让你毫无察觉,
但当感染病毒的人乘飞机或者去逛商场,
04:26
that they get on a plane平面
or they go to a market市场.
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他们其实已经具有一定的传染力了。
04:29
The source资源 of the virus病毒 could be
a natural自然 epidemic疫情 like Ebola埃博拉病毒,
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此外病毒的来源可以是
天然的,像埃博拉病毒,
04:32
or it could be bioterrorism生物恐怖主义.
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或是由生物恐怖攻击产生的。
04:34
So there are things that would literally按照字面
make things a thousand times worse更差.
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所以可以让疫情惨上千倍的
病毒是存在的。
04:39
In fact事实, let's look at a model模型
of a virus病毒 spread传播 through通过 the air空气,
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事实上,让我们来看看一个病毒
由空气传染的模型,
04:45
like the Spanish西班牙语 Flu流感 back in 1918.
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像1918年的西班牙流感。
04:49
So here's这里的 what would happen发生:
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疫情有可能像这样发展:
04:51
It would spread传播 throughout始终 the world世界
very, very quickly很快.
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病毒会以很快的速度向全世界蔓延。
04:55
And you can see over 30 million百万 people
died死亡 from that epidemic疫情.
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你可以看到全球有三千万人
死于这个疾病。
05:00
So this is a serious严重 problem问题.
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这就是个很严重的问题。
05:02
We should be concerned关心.
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我们绝不应该忽视。
05:04
But in fact事实, we can build建立
a really good response响应 system系统.
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但事实上我们可以建立
一个很好的反应系统。
05:08
We have the benefits好处 of all the science科学
and technology技术 that we talk about here.
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我们可以利用所有发展至今的科技和科学。
05:13
We've我们已经 got cell细胞 phones手机
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我们可以用手机
05:14
to get information信息 from the public上市
and get information信息 out to them.
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来收集信息和发布信息。
05:18
We have satellite卫星 maps地图 where we can see
where people are and where they're moving移动.
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我们有卫星地图可以看到
人们在哪里和往哪移动。
05:22
We have advances进步 in biology生物学
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我们在生物学上也有进展,
05:24
that should dramatically显着 change更改
the turnaround回转 time to look at a pathogen病原
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这可以大幅缩短我们找到病原的时间,
05:28
and be able能够 to make drugs毒品 and vaccines疫苗
that fit适合 for that pathogen病原.
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并可以在很短的时间里找出解药和疫苗。
05:33
So we can have tools工具,
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所以我们是有工具的,
05:34
but those tools工具 need to be put
into an overall总体 global全球 health健康 system系统.
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但这些工具必须统合在
一个全球健康系统下。
05:39
And we need preparedness准备.
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此外我们必须处在准备好的状态。
05:41
The best最好 lessons教训, I think,
on how to get prepared准备
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而我们如何做好准备,
05:44
are again, what we do for war战争.
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最好的例子还是来自于备战。
05:46
For soldiers士兵, we have full-time全职,
waiting等候 to go.
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对军人来说,他们是随时随地
都准备好要投入战争的。
05:51
We have reserves储量 that can scale规模
us up to large numbers数字.
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我们还有预备军人,
能使备战人口大量增加。
北约组织有个机动小组,
可以很快地行动起来。
05:54
NATO北约 has a mobile移动 unit单元
that can deploy部署 very rapidly急速.
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05:58
NATO北约 does a lot of war战争 games游戏
to check, are people well trained熟练?
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北约组织有很多战争游戏可以测试
人员是否已训练有素?
06:01
Do they understand理解
about fuel汽油 and logistics后勤
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他们是否了解燃油,补给
06:03
and the same相同 radio无线电 frequencies频率?
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和相同的收音机频率?
06:06
So they are absolutely绝对 ready准备 to go.
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是的话,那么他们就已准备好了。
06:08
So those are the kinds of things
we need to deal合同 with an epidemic疫情.
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这些就是面对疫情时我们该准备的事。
06:13
What are the key pieces?
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关键的项目有哪些?
06:15
First, we need strong强大 health健康 systems系统
in poor较差的 countries国家.
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第一,在贫穷的国家里
必须有发达的卫生系统。
母亲们可以安全地生小孩,
06:20
That's where mothers母亲
can give birth分娩 safely安然,
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小孩们可以接种疫苗。
06:23
kids孩子 can get all their vaccines疫苗.
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06:25
But, also where we'll see
the outbreak暴发 very early on.
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我们也可以在很早的阶段
侦查到疫情的爆发。
我们需要后备的医疗部队:
06:30
We need a medical reserve保留 corps兵团:
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06:31
lots of people who've谁一直 got
the training训练 and background背景
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还有很多训练有素的专业人员,
06:34
who are ready准备 to go, with the expertise专门知识.
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随时准备好能带着他们专长到疫区。
06:37
And then we need to pair those
medical people with the military军事.
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我们可以用军队来配合医护人员,
06:42
taking服用 advantage优点 of the military's军事的 ability能力
to move移动 fast快速, do logistics后勤
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利用军队移动迅速的特性,
06:46
and secure安全 areas.
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来进行后勤运输和维持安全。
06:48
We need to do simulations模拟,
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我们也需要进行一些情境模拟,
06:51
germ病菌 games游戏, not war战争 games游戏,
so that we see where the holes are.
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不是进行战争游戏而是进行病菌游戏 ,
看看防卫漏洞在哪。
06:55
The last time a germ病菌 game游戏
was doneDONE in the United联合的 States状态
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上一次的病菌游戏是在美国进行的,
06:58
was back in 2001,
and it didn't go so well.
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那是在2001年了, 进行得也不是很顺利。
07:02
So far the score得分了 is germs病菌: 1, people: 0.
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目前病菌得一分人类零分。
最后我们在疫苗和病理学上
还需要很多的研发工作。
07:07
Finally最后, we need lots of advanced高级 R&D
in areas of vaccines疫苗 and diagnostics诊断.
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07:13
There are some big breakthroughs突破,
like the Adeno-associated腺相关 virus病毒,
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在某些方面例如腺相关病毒上,
我们已经有了相当的突破,
07:17
that could work very, very quickly很快.
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这可以在很短的时间内生效。
07:21
Now I don't have an exact精确 budget预算
for what this would cost成本,
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我目前没有明确的预算
这到底需要多少钱,
07:24
but I'm quite相当 sure it's very modest谦虚
compared相比 to the potential潜在 harm危害.
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但是我确信跟损失比起来是比较便宜的。
07:29
The World世界 Bank银行 estimates估计 that
if we have a worldwide全世界 flu流感 epidemic疫情,
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根据世界银行的估算,
如果我们有流感的疫情暴发,
07:33
global全球 wealth财富 will go down
by over three trillion dollars美元
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全球经济会损失三万多亿美元。
07:37
and we'd星期三 have millions百万
and millions百万 of deaths死亡.
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我们还会可能有千百万人员的死亡。
07:41
These investments投资
offer提供 significant重大 benefits好处
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跟仅仅只是准备好比起来,
07:44
beyond just being存在 ready准备 for the epidemic疫情.
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这些额外的投资会带来显著的益处。
07:46
The primary healthcare卫生保健, the R&D,
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基础的卫生保健,研发,
可以促进全球健康的平衡发展,
07:48
those things would reduce减少
global全球 health健康 equity公平
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让这个世界更健康更安全。
07:51
and make the world世界 more just
as well as more safe安全.
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所以我觉得这非常重要重要。刻不容缓。
07:55
So I think this should absolutely绝对
be a priority优先.
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07:59
There's no need to panic恐慌.
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不需要惊慌。
08:00
We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti意大利面
or go down into the basement地下室.
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我们不需要囤积面罐头
或是躲到地下室去,
08:05
But we need to get going,
because time is not on our side.
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但是我们必须急起直追,因为时间有限。
08:09
In fact事实, if there's one positive thing
that can come out of the Ebola埃博拉病毒 epidemic疫情,
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事实上,要说这场埃博拉病毒的疫情
带来了什么正面影响的话,
08:15
it's that it can serve服务 as an early
warning警告, a wake-up醒来 call, to get ready准备.
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那就是提早响起了警报,
让我们觉醒并做好准备。
08:21
If we start开始 now, we can be ready准备
for the next下一个 epidemic疫情.
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我们如果即刻开始准备,那么在
下一场疫情来临前我们是可以准备好的。
08:26
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
08:28
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Wang-Ju Tsai
Reviewed by Min Wang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.

Why you should listen

Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.

In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.

Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com