ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - Writer
Julia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.

Why you should listen

Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast

More profile about the speaker
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxPSU

Julia Galef: Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong

朱莉亚·加莱夫: 为什么你总认为自己是正确的——即使你真的错了

Filmed:
4,082,284 views

知性决定一切,特别是在审视自己的信仰时。你是一个倾向于不惜一切代价去保卫自己观点的士兵——还是一个受好奇心驱使的侦察员?朱莉亚·加莱夫调查了这两种思维模式背后的动机,以及它们如何塑造我们解读信息的方式,同时穿插了源自于19世纪法国的一段引人注目的历史教训。当你深信不疑的观念受到挑战时,加莱夫问道:“你最渴望的是什么,你是渴望保卫你的信仰还是渴望尽可能的看清楚这个世界?”
- Writer
Julia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So I'd like you to imagine想像 for a moment时刻
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我想让你们想象一下,
你是一个身处激烈战争中的士兵。
00:15
that you're a soldier士兵
in the heat of battle战斗.
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00:18
Maybe you're a Roman罗马 foot脚丫子 soldier士兵
or a medieval中世纪 archer射手
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也许你是一个罗马步兵或者中世纪的弓箭手,
或者是一个祖鲁勇士。
00:22
or maybe you're a Zulu祖鲁 warrior战士.
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不管你是处在怎样的时代和战场,
有些东西是相同的。
00:24
Regardless而不管 of your time and place地点,
there are some things that are constant不变.
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你的肾上腺素上升,
00:28
Your adrenaline肾上腺素 is elevated提高的,
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而你的行动源于那些最原始的条件反射,
00:30
and your actions行动 are stemming词干
from these deeply ingrained根深蒂固 reflexes反射,
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那种出于保护自己和战友
00:35
reflexes反射 rooted in a need
to protect保护 yourself你自己 and your side
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并打败敌人的需求的条件反射。
00:39
and to defeat打败 the enemy敌人.
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00:42
So now, I'd like you to imagine想像
playing播放 a very different不同 role角色,
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现在,再想象一下
扮演一个完全不同的角色,
那就是侦察员。
00:46
that of the scout侦察.
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侦察员的工作不是攻击或者防守。
00:48
The scout's侦察兵的 job工作 is not
to attack攻击 or defend保卫.
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侦察员的工作是认清形势。
00:51
The scout's侦察兵的 job工作 is to understand理解.
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00:54
The scout侦察 is the one going out,
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侦察员是那些走出营地
去测定地形、识别出可能的障碍的人。
00:56
mapping制图 the terrain地形,
identifying识别 potential潜在 obstacles障碍.
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侦察员也许很希望
刚好在合适的位置有一座桥
01:00
And the scout侦察 may可能 hope希望 to learn学习
that, say, there's a bridge
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可以跨过某条河。
01:04
in a convenient方便 location位置 across横过 a river.
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但更重要的是,
侦察员想要弄清楚那里到底有什么,
01:06
But above以上 all, the scout侦察
wants to know what's really there,
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越精确越好。
01:09
as accurately准确 as possible可能.
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01:12
And in a real真实, actual实际 army军队, both
the soldier士兵 and the scout侦察 are essential必要.
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在一支精良的队伍中,
士兵和侦察员都是必不可少的。
但是你也可以把它们
各自想象为一种思维模式——
01:17
But you can also think of each
of these roles角色 as a mindset心态 --
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一种关于我们如何在日常生活中处理
01:22
a metaphor隐喻 for how all of us
process处理 information信息 and ideas思路
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信息和想法的比喻。
01:26
in our daily日常 lives生活.
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01:28
What I'm going to argue争论 today今天
is that having good judgment判断,
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今天我将要讨论的是
不管是拥有好的判断力,
做出正确的预测,
还是做出好的决策,
01:32
making制造 accurate准确 predictions预测,
making制造 good decisions决定,
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几乎都跟你处于哪种思维模式相关。
01:35
is mostly大多 about which哪一个 mindset心态 you're in.
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01:38
To illustrate说明 these mindsets心态 in action行动,
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为了举例说明这两种思维模式,
我将带你们回到19世纪法国的一个地方。
01:41
I'm going to take you back
to 19th-centuryTH-世纪 France法国,
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在那里,由这张看起来很普通的稿件,
01:45
where this innocuous-looking看似平淡无奇
piece of paper
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引发了历史上最大的政治丑闻之一。
01:48
launched推出 one of the biggest最大
political政治 scandals丑闻 in history历史.
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01:51
It was discovered发现 in 1894
by officers长官 in the French法国 general一般 staff员工.
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它是在1984年
被法国总参谋部的军官发现的。
01:56
It was torn撕裂 up in a wastepaper浪费纸 basket,
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被撕碎了扔在一个废纸篓里,
但是当他们把它拼接起来后,
01:59
but when they pieced拼凑 it back together一起,
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发现他们中间有人
02:01
they discovered发现
that someone有人 in their ranks行列
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在向德国出卖军事机密。
02:03
had been selling销售
military军事 secrets秘密 to Germany德国.
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02:06
So they launched推出 a big investigation调查,
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因此他们开展了深入的调查,
然后他们的怀疑很快集中到了这个人身上,
02:08
and their suspicions猜疑
quickly很快 converged融合 on this man,
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阿尔弗勒德·德雷福斯。
02:12
Alfred阿尔弗雷德 Dreyfus德雷福斯.
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02:14
He had a sterling英镑 record记录,
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他没有过任何不光彩的记录,
没做过什么坏事,也没有所谓的动机。
02:16
no past过去 history历史 of wrongdoing坏事,
no motive动机 as far as they could tell.
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02:20
But Dreyfus德雷福斯 was the only
Jewish犹太 officer at that rank in the army军队,
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但是德雷福斯是军队里
那个级别中的唯一犹太军官,
并且不幸的是,那时的法军非常地反犹太。
02:25
and unfortunately不幸 at this time,
the French法国 Army军队 was highly高度 anti-Semitic反犹太人的.
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他们将德雷福斯的笔迹跟那张纸上的对照,
02:29
They compared相比 Dreyfus's德雷福斯的 handwriting手写
to that on the memo备忘录
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然后得出了笔迹一致的结论,
02:32
and concluded总结 that it was a match比赛,
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尽管外面的笔迹鉴定专家
02:34
even though虽然 outside
professional专业的 handwriting手写 experts专家
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对此持怀疑态度,
02:37
were much less confident信心
in the similarity相似,
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但也于事无补。
02:40
but never mind心神 that.
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他们搜查了德雷福斯的寓所,
02:41
They went and searched搜索
Dreyfus's德雷福斯的 apartment公寓,
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寻找他从事间谍活动的蛛丝马迹。
02:43
looking for any signs迹象 of espionage间谍.
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他们翻遍了他的文件,但一无所获。
02:45
They went through通过 his files,
and they didn't find anything.
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这使他们更加确信德雷福斯不仅有罪,
02:48
This just convinced相信 them more
that Dreyfus德雷福斯 was not only guilty有罪,
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而且还很狡猾,因为很明显在他们搜查之前
02:51
but sneaky偷偷摸摸 as well, because clearly明确地
he had hidden all of the evidence证据
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他就隐藏了所有的证据。
02:54
before they had managed管理 to get to it.
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02:57
Next下一个, they went and looked看着
through通过 his personal个人 history历史
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接下来,他们审查了他的个人历史
寻找任何能表明他有罪的细节。
02:59
for any incriminating罪证 details细节.
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他们跟他的老师谈话。
03:02
They talked to his teachers教师,
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发现他在学校学过外语,
03:03
they found发现 that he had studied研究
foreign国外 languages语言 in school学校,
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这清楚地表明了一种想要在以后的生活中
03:06
which哪一个 clearly明确地 showed显示 a desire欲望
to conspire合谋 with foreign国外 governments政府
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跟外国政府相勾结的愿望。
03:10
later后来 in life.
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老师还说德雷福斯出了名的记忆力好,
03:11
His teachers教师 also said that Dreyfus德雷福斯
was known已知 for having a good memory记忆,
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这不是非常可疑吗?
03:18
which哪一个 was highly高度 suspicious可疑, right?
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因为间谍需要记住很多东西。
03:20
You know, because a spy间谍
has to remember记得 a lot of things.
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03:24
So the case案件 went to trial审讯,
and Dreyfus德雷福斯 was found发现 guilty有罪.
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因此经过审讯,德雷福斯被判有罪。
03:28
Afterwards之后, they took him out
into this public上市 square广场
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然后,他们把他带到了公共广场,
仪式性地撕下了他制服上的徽章,
03:32
and ritualistically循规蹈矩 tore撕毁
his insignia徽章 from his uniform制服
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并折断了他的佩剑。
03:35
and broke打破 his sword in two.
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这件事被称作德雷福斯冤案。
03:37
This was called
the Degradation降解 of Dreyfus德雷福斯.
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03:40
And they sentenced判刑 him
to life imprisonment徒刑
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他们判处他终身监禁,
并将其押送到被称为魔鬼岛的地方服役,
03:43
on the aptly恰当地 named命名 Devil's魔鬼 Island,
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是个远离南美洲海岸贫瘠的岩石小岛。
03:46
which哪一个 is this barren荒芜 rock
off the coast of South America美国.
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03:49
So there he went,
and there he spent花费 his days alone单独,
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在那里,他一个人孤零零地生活,
给法国政府写了一封又一封的信,
03:53
writing写作 letters and letters
to the French法国 government政府
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乞求他们重审他的案子,
并希望通过重审获得清白。
03:55
begging乞讨 them to reopen重开 his case案件
so they could discover发现 his innocence无辜.
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03:59
But for the most part部分,
France法国 considered考虑 the matter closed关闭.
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但是在大多数情形下,
法国政府都认为这件事已经结案。
04:03
One thing that's really interesting有趣
to me about the Dreyfus德雷福斯 Affair事务
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在德雷福斯事件中
让我真正感兴趣的一点是
为什么这些军官会如此确信
04:07
is this question of why the officers长官
were so convinced相信
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德雷福斯是有罪的。
04:11
that Dreyfus德雷福斯 was guilty有罪.
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04:13
I mean, you might威力 even assume承担
that they were setting设置 him up,
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我是说,你可能以为他们是在给他设套,
他们在故意地诬陷他。
04:16
that they were intentionally故意地 framing取景 him.
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但是历史学家却不这样认为。
04:18
But historians历史学家 don't think
that's what happened发生.
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据我们所知,
04:20
As far as we can tell,
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这些军官由衷地相信德雷福斯是有罪的。
04:21
the officers长官 genuinely真正的 believed相信
that the case案件 against反对 Dreyfus德雷福斯 was strong强大.
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这也就会使你感到好奇:
04:26
Which哪一个 makes品牌 you wonder奇迹:
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如果在只有微不足道的证据的情况下
04:28
What does it say about the human人的 mind心神
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我们就可以给一个人定罪,
04:30
that we can find such这样 paltry微不足道 evidence证据
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那么这对人类的思维来说意味着什么?
04:33
to be compelling引人注目 enough足够 to convict定罪 a man?
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04:36
Well, this is a case案件 of what scientists科学家们
call "motivated动机 reasoning推理."
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然而,这就是科学家
称之为“动机性推理”的一个案例。
正是这种存在于我们无意识的动机
04:40
It's this phenomenon现象 in which哪一个
our unconscious无意识 motivations动机,
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以及我们的欲望和恐惧,
04:43
our desires欲望 and fears恐惧,
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塑造了我们解读信息的方式。
04:45
shape形状 the way we interpret information信息.
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有些信息和想法
感觉就像是我们的盟友。
04:48
Some information信息, some ideas思路,
feel like our allies盟国.
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我们希望它们能赢。
我们想要保护它们。
04:51
We want them to win赢得.
We want to defend保卫 them.
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还有些信息和想法感觉就像是敌人,
04:54
And other information信息
or ideas思路 are the enemy敌人,
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我们就想要打垮它们。
04:56
and we want to shoot射击 them down.
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04:59
So this is why I call
motivated动机 reasoning推理, "soldier士兵 mindset心态."
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这就是为什么我把动机性推理
称作“士兵型思维模式”。
05:03
Probably大概 most of you have never persecuted迫害
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可能你们大部分人从来都没有做过
以叛国罪去迫害一个
法籍犹太军官这样的事,
05:07
a French-Jewish法国犹太人 officer for high treason叛逆,
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没错吧,
05:09
I assume承担,
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但很可能你关注过体育或者政治新闻,
因此你大概注意过,
05:10
but maybe you've followed其次 sports体育
or politics政治, so you might威力 have noticed注意到
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举个例子来说,当裁判判你支持的
05:15
that when the referee裁判 judges法官
that your team球队 committed提交 a foul犯规,
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队伍犯规时,
05:19
for example,
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你会很积极地去找理由
证明他的判罚是错的。
05:21
you're highly高度 motivated动机
to find reasons原因 why he's wrong错误.
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05:24
But if he judges法官 that the other team球队
committed提交 a foul犯规 -- awesome真棒!
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但是当裁判判对方犯规时——太棒了!
判得很正确,没必要深究了。
05:27
That's a good call,
let's not examine检查 it too closely密切.
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05:30
Or, maybe you've read
an article文章 or a study研究
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也许你读过一些对于有关政策
有争议的文章或研究报告,
05:32
that examined检查 some controversial争论的 policy政策,
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比如说关于死刑的。
05:35
like capital首都 punishment惩罚.
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05:37
And, as researchers研究人员 have demonstrated证明,
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就像研究人员已经证实的一样,
如果你支持死刑
05:39
if you support支持 capital首都 punishment惩罚
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而研究的结果却表明
它并不能有效减少犯罪,
05:41
and the study研究 shows节目
that it's not effective有效,
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那么你会很积极地寻找各种理由
05:44
then you're highly高度 motivated动机
to find all the reasons原因
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去证明这项研究有不妥之处。
05:47
why the study研究 was poorly不好 designed设计.
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但是如果它表明死刑能够有效减少犯罪,
05:49
But if it shows节目
that capital首都 punishment惩罚 works作品,
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那你就会认可这项研究。
05:51
it's a good study研究.
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反之,如果你反对死刑,也一样。
05:53
And vice versa反之亦然: if you don't
support支持 capital首都 punishment惩罚, same相同 thing.
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我们的判断无意识地受到
05:56
Our judgment判断 is strongly非常
influenced影响, unconsciously不知不觉,
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个人喜好的强烈影响。
05:59
by which哪一个 side we want to win赢得.
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06:02
And this is ubiquitous普及.
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而且这种现象是普遍存在的。
它影响着我们如何看待健康和人际关系,
06:03
This shapes形状 how we think
about our health健康, our relationships关系,
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如何决定投谁的票,
06:07
how we decide决定 how to vote投票,
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以及怎样看待公平或道德。
06:08
what we consider考虑 fair公平 or ethical合乎道德的.
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06:12
What's most scary害怕 to me
about motivated动机 reasoning推理
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关于动机性推理或者说士兵型思维模式,
最让我觉得可怕的一点是
06:14
or soldier士兵 mindset心态,
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它受潜意识影响之深。
06:15
is how unconscious无意识 it is.
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我们认为自己是客观公正的,
06:17
We can think we're being存在
objective目的 and fair-minded公正的
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但结果却是毁掉了一个无辜者的一生。
06:20
and still wind up ruining破坏 the life
of an innocent无辜 man.
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06:25
However然而, fortunately幸好 for Dreyfus德雷福斯,
his story故事 is not over.
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然而,幸运的是
对于德雷福斯来说,一切还没结束。
这是皮卡尔上校。
06:27
This is Colonel陆军上校 PicquartPicquart.
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他是法军中的另一个高级军官,
06:29
He's another另一个 high-ranking高级 officer
in the French法国 Army军队,
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像大多数人一样,他也认为德雷福斯有罪。
06:31
and like most people,
he assumed假定 Dreyfus德雷福斯 was guilty有罪.
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06:34
Also like most people in the army军队,
he was at least最小 casually胡乱 anti-Semitic反犹太人的.
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跟军队中大多数人也一样,
他至少表面上是反犹太的。
但是在某个时间点上,
皮卡尔开始怀疑:
06:39
But at a certain某些 point,
PicquartPicquart began开始 to suspect疑似:
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06:43
"What if we're all wrong错误 about Dreyfus德雷福斯?"
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“如果我们所有人都错怪了德雷福斯呢?”
06:46
What happened发生 was,
he had discovered发现 evidence证据
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当时的情况是,
他发现了一些证据
表明德国间谍的活动还在继续,
06:48
that the spying间谍 for Germany德国 had continued继续,
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即便是在德雷福斯入狱之后。
06:51
even after Dreyfus德雷福斯 was in prison监狱.
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06:53
And he had also discovered发现
that another另一个 officer in the army军队
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他还发现军队中另一个军官的笔迹
跟那张纸上的笔迹完全匹配,
06:56
had handwriting手写 that perfectly完美
matched匹配 the memo备忘录,
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比德雷福斯的笔迹更加相符。
06:59
much closer接近 than Dreyfus's德雷福斯的 handwriting手写.
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07:02
So he brought these discoveries发现
to his superiors上级,
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因此他带着这些疑点找到他的上级,
07:06
but to his dismay沮丧,
they either didn't care关心
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令人沮丧的是,他们要么不在乎,
要么提出一些精心编造,想当然的理由
去解释他的发现,
07:09
or came来了 up with elaborate阐述 rationalizations合理化
to explain说明 his findings发现,
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比如说,“嗯,你的发现刚好证明另一个间谍
07:13
like, "Well, all you've really shown显示,
PicquartPicquart, is that there's another另一个 spy间谍
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模仿了德雷福斯的笔迹,
07:18
who learned学到了 how to mimic模仿者
Dreyfus's德雷福斯的 handwriting手写,
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并且接替了德雷福斯的间谍位置。
07:21
and he picked采摘的 up the torch火炬 of spying间谍
after Dreyfus德雷福斯 left.
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07:25
But Dreyfus德雷福斯 is still guilty有罪."
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但是德雷福斯仍然是有罪的。”
07:27
Eventually终于, PicquartPicquart managed管理
to get Dreyfus德雷福斯 exonerated免除.
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最终,皮卡尔让德雷福斯重获清白。
但是花了他10年的时间,
07:30
But it took him 10 years年份,
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而且在这期间
他自己也以对军队不忠的罪名
07:32
and for part部分 of that time,
he himself他自己 was in prison监狱
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被投入了监狱。
07:35
for the crime犯罪 of disloyalty不忠实 to the army军队.
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07:38
A lot of people feel like PicquartPicquart
can't really be the hero英雄 of this story故事
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很多人觉得,在这个故事中
皮卡尔算不上真正的英雄,
因为他反犹太,
我也同意这是他不好的一点。
07:44
because he was an anti-Semite反犹份子
and that's bad, which哪一个 I agree同意 with.
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07:49
But personally亲自, for me,
the fact事实 that PicquartPicquart was anti-Semitic反犹太人的
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但就我个人而言,
正是因为他反犹太,
才使得他的行为更令人软佩,
07:53
actually其实 makes品牌 his actions行动 more admirable令人钦佩,
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因为他跟那些同僚带有相同的偏见,
07:56
because he had the same相同 prejudices偏见,
the same相同 reasons原因 to be biased
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也有相同的理由去倾向于有罪结论,
07:59
as his fellow同伴 officers长官,
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但是他那种找出并维护真相的动力
战胜了一切。
08:01
but his motivation动机 to find the truth真相
and uphold坚持 it trumped莫须有 all of that.
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08:07
So to me,
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所以对我而言,
08:08
PicquartPicquart is a poster海报 child儿童
for what I call "scout侦察 mindset心态."
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皮卡尔就是我称之为
“侦察员型思维模式”中的典型代表。
08:12
It's the drive驾驶 not to make
one idea理念 win赢得 or another另一个 lose失去,
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这不是非让两个想法分出输赢不可,
而是尽可能诚实和准确地
08:16
but just to see what's really there
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找出事实真相的一种驱动力,
08:18
as honestly老老实实 and accurately准确 as you can,
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即使真相并不那么令人赏心悦目。
08:21
even if it's not pretty漂亮
or convenient方便 or pleasant愉快.
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08:25
This mindset心态 is what
I'm personally亲自 passionate多情 about.
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这种思维模式是我个人所推崇的。
过去几年我一直在调查并想找出
08:28
And I've spent花费 the last few少数 years年份
examining检查 and trying to figure数字 out
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侦察员型思维模式的成因。
08:33
what causes原因 scout侦察 mindset心态.
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为什么有些人,至少在有些时候,
08:35
Why are some people, sometimes有时 at least最小,
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能够去掉自己内心的歧视、偏见和倾向,
08:39
able能够 to cut through通过 their own拥有 prejudices偏见
and biases偏见 and motivations动机
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而是尽可能尝试着
08:42
and just try to see the facts事实
and the evidence证据
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客观地找出事实和证据。
08:45
as objectively客观地 as they can?
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08:47
And the answer回答 is emotional情绪化.
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而答案就是情感。
08:51
So, just as soldier士兵 mindset心态
is rooted in emotions情绪
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就像士兵型思维模式是出于
08:54
like defensiveness防御 or tribalism部落,
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像防御性和部落主义这样的情感,
08:58
scout侦察 mindset心态 is, too.
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侦察员型思维模式也一样。
只不过是来源于不同的情感。
09:00
It's just rooted in different不同 emotions情绪.
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例如,侦察员都有很强的好奇心。
09:02
For example, scouts侦察兵 are curious好奇.
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他们更可能会因为
09:05
They're more likely容易 to say
they feel pleasure乐趣
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获得新的信息
09:09
when they learn学习 new information信息
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或渴望解开一个谜题而感到开心。
09:10
or an itch to solve解决 a puzzle难题.
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09:13
They're more likely容易 to feel intrigued好奇
when they encounter遭遇 something
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他们会对那些与他们的预期不相符的
事情更感兴趣。
09:16
that contradicts相矛盾 their expectations期望.
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09:19
Scouts童子军 also have different不同 values.
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侦察员也拥有不同的价值观。
他们可能会觉得
09:21
They're more likely容易 to say
they think it's virtuous
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检验自己的信仰是一件善事,
09:24
to test测试 your own拥有 beliefs信仰,
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而可能不会说那些改变想法的人
09:25
and they're less likely容易 to say
that someone有人 who changes变化 his mind心神
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看起来很懦弱。
09:29
seems似乎 weak.
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总之,侦察员是以事实为根据的,
09:30
And above以上 all, scouts侦察兵 are grounded接地,
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也就是说他们的自我价值观
09:32
which哪一个 means手段 their self-worth自我价值 as a person
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不是跟他们在某个事件上的
对错绑在一起的。
09:36
isn't tied to how right or wrong错误
they are about any particular特定 topic话题.
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所以他们可能相信死刑能减少犯罪。
09:42
So they can believe
that capital首都 punishment惩罚 works作品.
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但如果研究表明它不能,他们可能会说
09:45
If studies学习 come out showing展示
that it doesn't, they can say,
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“呵,看起来是我错了,
但这并不说明我坏或者蠢。”
09:48
"Huh. Looks容貌 like I might威力 be wrong错误.
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
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09:53
This cluster of traits性状
is what researchers研究人员 have found发现 --
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这就是研究人员所发现的特征——
而且我也发现了——
09:58
and I've also found发现 anecdotally据传 --
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可以预测好的判断。
10:00
predicts预测 good judgment判断.
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10:02
And the key takeaway带走 I want
to leave离开 you with about those traits性状
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而我想要强调的关于这些特征的关键点是
10:05
is that they're primarily主要
not about how smart聪明 you are
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它们根本上来说跟你有多聪明
或者你知道多少无关。
10:09
or about how much you know.
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事实上,它们跟智商完全无关。
10:11
In fact事实, they don't correlate关联
very much with IQ智商 at all.
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10:14
They're about how you feel.
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它们跟你的感觉有关。
10:16
There's a quote引用 that I keep
coming未来 back to, by Saint-Exup圣EXUPéryRY.
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我要引用圣埃克苏佩里的一句话。
他是《小王子》的作者。
10:20
He's the author作者 of "The Little Prince王子."
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他说,“如果你想造一艘船,
10:22
He said, "If you want to build建立 a ship,
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10:26
don't drum up your men男人
to collect搜集 wood and give orders命令
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不要雇人去收集木头,不要发号施令,
也不要分配任务,
10:30
and distribute分发 the work.
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10:32
Instead代替, teach them to yearn向往
for the vast广大 and endless无穷 sea."
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而是去激发他们对海洋的渴望”。
10:38
In other words, I claim要求,
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换句话说,我认为,
10:40
if we really want to improve提高
our judgment判断 as individuals个人
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如果我们真的想提高判断力,
不管是作为个人
还是作为社会,
10:44
and as societies社会,
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我们最需要的不是更多逻辑上,
10:45
what we need most
is not more instruction指令 in logic逻辑
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修辞上、概率上或者经济上的指导,
10:49
or rhetoric修辞 or probability可能性 or economics经济学,
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即便这些东西也都很有价值。
10:52
even though虽然 those things
are quite相当 valuable有价值.
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而我们要用好这些原理,最需要的
10:54
But what we most need
to use those principles原则 well
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就是侦察员型思维模式。
10:58
is scout侦察 mindset心态.
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我们需要改变我们感觉事物的方式。
10:59
We need to change更改 the way we feel.
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11:01
We need to learn学习 how to feel proud骄傲
instead代替 of ashamed羞愧
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当我们注意到自己可能
在某件事上出错了的时候,
我们要感到自豪而不是羞愧。
11:05
when we notice注意 we might威力
have been wrong错误 about something.
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当我们遇到一些与
我们的信仰相冲突的信息时,
11:08
We need to learn学习 how to feel intrigued好奇
instead代替 of defensive防御性
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我们要学会感到好奇而不是抵触。
11:11
when we encounter遭遇 some information信息
that contradicts相矛盾 our beliefs信仰.
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11:16
So the question I want
to leave离开 you with is:
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因此我想要留给你们的问题是:
11:19
What do you most yearn向往 for?
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你最渴望什么?
11:22
Do you yearn向往 to defend保卫 your own拥有 beliefs信仰?
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你是渴望保护你的信仰?
11:26
Or do you yearn向往 to see the world世界
as clearly明确地 as you possibly或者 can?
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还是渴望尽自己所能去看清这个世界?
11:30
Thank you.
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谢谢。
(掌声)
11:31
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by chunhua zhang
Reviewed by Jing Peng

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - Writer
Julia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.

Why you should listen

Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast

More profile about the speaker
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com