ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expert
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment.

Why you should listen

Michael Shellenberger is co-founder and Senior Fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, where he was president from 2003 to 2015, and a co-author of the Ecomodernist Manifesto.

Over the last decade, Shellenberger and his colleagues have constructed a new paradigm that views prosperity, cheap energy and nuclear power as the keys to environmental progress. A book he co-wrote (with Ted Nordhaus) in 2007, Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility, was called by Wired magazine "the best thing to happen to environmentalism since Rachel Carson's Silent Spring," while Time magazine called him a "hero of the environment." In the 1990s, he helped protect the last significant groves of old-growth redwoods still in private hands and bring about labor improvements to Nike factories in Asia.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shellenberger | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSummit

Michael Shellenberger: How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment

迈克尔・塞伦博格: 恐惧核能是怎样伤害环境的

Filmed:
1,636,529 views

“我们并不是在清洁能源革命之中,我们正处在一个清洁能源危机中。”气候政策专家迈克尔・塞伦博格说。他令人惊讶的解决方式是:核能。在这个充满激情的演讲中,他表明了现在是时候解决长期对核能的恐惧了,他和其他环境科学家相信现在是时候把核能当成可用和重要的清洁能源了。
- Climate policy expert
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Have you heard听说 the news新闻?
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你们看新闻了吗?
00:14
We're in a clean清洁 energy能源 revolution革命.
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我们正在进行
清洁能源革命。
00:17
And where I live生活 in Berkeley伯克利, California加州,
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我住在加利福尼亚州伯克利市,
00:19
it seems似乎 like every一切 day I see a new roof屋顶
with new solar太阳能 panels面板 going up,
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几乎每天我都会看到新的
太阳能板被装在屋顶上,
00:23
electric电动 car汽车 in the driveway车道.
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电动汽车停在车道上。
00:25
Germany德国 sometimes有时 gets得到
half its power功率 from solar太阳能,
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德国一半的电力
来自于太阳能,
00:29
and India印度 is now committed提交
to building建造 10 times more solar太阳能
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印度计划在2022年完成
00:33
than we have in California加州,
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的太阳能板数量,
00:34
by the year 2022.
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是加州的十倍。
00:36
Even nuclear seems似乎 to be
making制造 a comeback回来.
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甚至连核电
都重返舞台了。
00:39
Bill法案 Gates盖茨 is in China中国
working加工 with engineers工程师,
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比尔·盖茨正在中国
和工程师们合作,
00:42
there's 40 different不同 companies公司
that are working加工 together一起
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他们来自超过
40家不同的公司,
00:45
to try to race种族 to build建立 the first
reactor反应堆 that runs运行 on waste浪费,
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互相竞争,尝试建造第一个
以废材为原料的反应堆,
00:49
that can't melt熔化 down
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永不融化,
00:50
and is cheaper便宜 than coal煤炭.
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比烧煤还便宜。
00:52
And so you might威力 start开始 to ask:
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所以,你可能会问:
00:55
Is this whole整个 global全球 warming变暖 problem问题
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“全球变暖问题
00:57
going to be a lot easier更轻松 to solve解决
than anybody任何人 imagined想象?
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是不是比大家想象中
要更容易解决?”
01:00
That was the question we wanted to know,
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这也是我们想知道的,
01:02
so my colleagues同事 and I decided决定
to take a deep dive潜水 into the data数据.
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所以我和我的同事们
开始调查数据。
01:05
We were a little skeptical怀疑的 of some parts部分
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之前我们对能源革命
中的一部分故事
01:07
of the clean清洁 energy能源 revolution革命 story故事,
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有所怀疑,
01:09
but what we found发现 really surprised诧异 us.
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但是最终的发现
却让我们大吃一惊。
01:12
The first thing is that clean清洁
energy能源 has been increasing增加.
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首先,清洁能源的
使用率一直在升高。
01:16
This is electricity电力 from clean清洁 energy能源
sources来源 over the last 20 years年份.
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这是过去20年间,
清洁能源的总发电量。
01:21
But when you look at
the percentage百分比 of global全球 electricity电力
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但是当你看到
全球范围内
01:24
from clean清洁 energy能源 sources来源,
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清洁能源总
发电量占比时,
01:26
it's actually其实 been in decline下降
from 36 percent百分 to 31 percent百分.
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事实上,这个比例

从36%下降到了31%。
01:30
And if you care关心 about climate气候 change更改,
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如果你在意气候变化,
01:32
you've got to go in the opposite对面 direction方向
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你一定要尽快做出改变,
01:35
to 100 percent百分 of our electricity电力
from clean清洁 energy能源 sources来源,
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使用纯清洁能源电力
01:38
as quickly很快 as possible可能.
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越快越好。
01:40
Now, you might威力 wonder奇迹,
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现在,你可能会问,
01:41
"Come on, how much could five percentage百分比
points of global全球 electricity电力 be?"
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“拜托,全球5%的
电力能有多少?”
01:45
Well, it turns out to be quite相当 a bit.
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事实证明还蛮多的。
01:47
It's the equivalent当量 of 60 nuclear plants植物
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这些电力等价于
60个核电站的产量,
01:50
the size尺寸 of Diablo暗黑破坏神 Canyon峡谷,
California's加州 last nuclear plant,
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每个都有加州核电站
“
代阿布洛”的大小,
01:53
or 900 solar太阳能 farms农场 the size尺寸 of Topaz黄玉,
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或900个“托帕石”大小
的
太阳能发电厂,
01:57
which哪一个 is one of the biggest最大
solar太阳能 farms农场 in the world世界,
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“托帕石”是世界上最大
的
太阳能发电厂之一,
02:00
and certainly当然 our biggest最大 in California加州.
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当然也是加州最大的。
02:03
A big part部分 of this is simply只是
that fossil化石 fuels燃料 are increasing增加
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主要原因仅是
化石燃料
的使用率在逐年增加,
02:06
faster更快 than clean清洁 energy能源.
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要比清洁能源的速度快。
02:08
And that's understandable可理解.
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这是可以理解的。
02:09
There's just a lot of poor较差的 countries国家
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因为还有很多贫困国家,
02:11
that are still using运用 wood
and dung and charcoal木炭
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它们还在把木材、粪便和木炭
02:13
as their main主要 source资源 of energy能源,
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作为
主要的能源材料,
02:15
and they need modern现代 fuels燃料.
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他们需要现代燃料。
02:16
But there's something else其他 going on,
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但是,还有另一件
事情正在发生,
02:18
which哪一个 is that one of those clean清洁 energy能源
sources来源 in particular特定
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那就是有一种
特定的清洁能源
02:22
has actually其实 been on the decline下降
in absolute绝对 terms条款,
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的使用量的
绝对值正在下降,
02:26
not just relatively相对.
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而非仅仅是相对占比。
02:27
And that's nuclear.
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那就是核能。
02:28
You can see its generation
has declined下降 seven percent百分
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你会发现,
在过去的10年里,
02:32
over the last 10 years年份.
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核能的发电量
已经下降了7%。
02:34
Now, solar太阳能 and wind have been
making制造 huge巨大 strides进步,
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当前,太阳能和
风能正在飞速发展。
02:37
so you hear a lot of talk
about how it doesn't really matter,
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所以你听到了很多言论,
表示核能下降不是问题,
02:40
because solar太阳能 and wind
is going to make up the difference区别.
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因为太阳能和风能
会弥补这一缺失。
02:42
But the data数据 says something different不同.
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但数据却告诉我们
事实不是这样的。
02:44
When you combine结合 all the electricity电力
from solar太阳能 and wind,
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当你把所有由太阳和风
创造的电力总量相加时,
02:47
you see it actually其实 barely仅仅 makes品牌 up
half of the decline下降 from nuclear.
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你会发现这仅弥补了

核能发电缺失的一半。
02:53
Let's take a closer接近 look
in the United联合的 States状态.
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让我们来看看美国,
02:56
Over the last couple一对 of years年份 --
really 2013, 2014 --
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在过去的几年里,
尤其是2013,14年,
02:59
we prematurely过早 retired退休
four nuclear power功率 plants植物.
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我们过早报废了
四个核电站。
03:03
They were almost几乎 entirely完全
replaced更换 with fossil化石 fuels燃料,
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它们的发电量几乎全部

被化石燃料发电取代了,
03:06
and so the consequence后果
was that we wiped out
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所以结果就是
我们放弃了
03:09
almost几乎 as much clean清洁 energy能源
electricity电力 that we get from solar太阳能.
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几乎和太阳能发电量

相当的清洁能源。
03:14
And it's not unique独特 to us.
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而且,我们在
这件事上并不唯一。
03:18
People think of California加州
as a clean清洁 energy能源 and climate气候 leader领导,
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人们认为加州是使用清洁能源

和保护环境的先锋州,
03:21
but when we looked看着 at the data数据,
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但是当我们查看数据,
03:23
what we found发现 is that, in fact事实,
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我们发现,事实上,
03:24
California加州 reduced减少 emissions排放 more slowly慢慢地
than the national国民 average平均,
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在2000到2015年间,
03:27
between之间 2000 and 2015.
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加州的减排速度
是低于全国速度的。
03:30
What about Germany德国?
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德国的情况又怎样呢?
03:31
They're doing a lot of clean清洁 energy能源.
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德国人在使用
很多清洁能源。
03:33
But when you look at the data数据,
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但是当你查看数据时,
03:35
German德语 emissions排放 have actually其实
been going up since以来 2009,
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会发现德国的排放量,
自09年
开始就持续升高,
03:38
and there's really not anybody任何人
who's谁是 going to tell you
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而且一定没有人会告诉你,
03:41
that they're going to meet遇到
their climate气候 commitments承诺 in 2020.
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他们计划在2020年
实现他们的气候承诺。
03:45
The reason原因 isn't hard to understand理解.
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原因并不难理解。
03:46
Solar太阳能 and wind provide提供 power功率
about 10 to 20 percent百分 of the time,
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现在太阳能和风能提供了
大概10%到20%的电力,
03:50
which哪一个 means手段 that when
the sun's太阳 not shining闪亮的,
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这意味着当阴雨连绵,
03:52
the wind's风的 not blowing,
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风平浪静的时候,
03:53
you still need power功率 for your hospitals医院,
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你依旧需要给医院、家庭、
03:55
your homes家园, your cities城市, your factories工厂.
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城市、工厂提供电力。
03:58
And while batteries电池 have made制作
some really cool improvements改进 lately最近,
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虽然近来电池领域
有了些巨大发展,
04:02
the truth真相 is, they're just never
going to be as efficient高效
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但真相是,
它们永远做不到
04:05
as the electrical电动 grid.
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输电网那样的高效率。
04:06
Every一切 time you put electricity电力
into a battery电池 and take it out,
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每当你把电输入
电池并使用它,
04:09
you lose失去 about 20 to 40
percent百分 of the power功率.
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你都会丢失20%
到40%的电量。
04:13
That's why when, in California加州,
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这就是为什么在加州,
04:16
we try to deal合同 with all the solar太阳能
we've我们已经 brought online线上 --
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我们正在尝试
太阳能的完全使用-
04:18
we now get about 10 percent百分
of electricity电力 from solar太阳能 --
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我们现在能够从太阳能
获得大约10%的电力-
04:21
when the sun太阳 goes down,
and people come home from work
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当太阳下山时,
人们下班回家,
04:24
and turn on their air空气 conditioners空调
and their TV电视 sets,
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打开空调和电视,
04:26
and every一切 other appliance器具 in the house,
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和其他家中电器时,
04:28
we need a lot of natural自然 gas加油站 backup备用.
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我们仍需要大量
天然气储备。
04:31
So what we've我们已经 been doing
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所以我们一直以来做的,
04:32
is stuffing a lot of natural自然 gas加油站
into the side of a mountain.
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就是把天然气贮存在山脊里。
04:35
And that worked工作 pretty漂亮 well for a while,
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这个计划的确在
一段时间里成功了,
04:37
but then late晚了 last year,
it sprung弹性 a leak泄漏.
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直至去年它发生了泄漏。
04:40
This is Aliso加利福尼亚Aliso Canyon峡谷.
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这是阿灵所峡谷。
04:42
So much methane甲烷 gas加油站 was released发布,
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大量的甲烷被释放,
04:45
it was the equivalent当量 of putting
half a million百万 cars汽车 on the road.
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相当于五十万辆
行驶汽车的排放量。
04:49
It basically基本上 blew自爆 through通过 all
of our climate气候 commitments承诺 for the year.
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就这样,它就轻松
打破了那年排放预算。
04:53
Well, what about India印度?
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好吧,印度的情况又怎样呢?
04:55
Sometimes有时 you have to go places地方
to really get the right data数据,
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有时,你是需要实地
收集真实数据的,
04:58
so we traveled旅行 to India印度 a few少数 months个月 ago.
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所以我们几个月前去了印度。
05:00
We met会见 with all the top最佳 officials官员 --
solar太阳能, nuclear, the rest休息 --
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我们会见了政府中
所有跟太阳能、
核能及其他能源有关的高级官员,
05:03
and what they told us is,
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他们告诉我:
05:05
"We're actually其实 having
more serious严重 problems问题
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“我们这儿的
问题,
05:07
than both Germany德国 and California加州.
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比德国和加州更严峻。
05:08
We don't have backup备用;
we don't have all the natural自然 gas加油站.
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我们没有后备贮藏,
也没有那么多天然气。
05:12
And that's just the start开始 of it.
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然而这只是问题
的一小部分。
05:14
Say we want to get
to 100 gigawatts吉瓦 by 2022.
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举个例子,我们想在2022年,
产生一千亿瓦特的电量。
05:17
But last year we did just five,
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但是去年我们却只
产生了五十亿瓦特,
05:19
and the year before that, we did five."
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前年,我们也只
产生了五十亿瓦特。”
05:21
So, let's just take
a closer接近 look at nuclear.
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所以,让我们好好
研究一下核能。
05:24
The United联合的 Nations国家 Intergovernmental政府间
Panel面板 on Climate气候 Change更改
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联合国气候变化政府间协商组织
05:28
has looked看着 at the carbon content内容
of all these different不同 fuels燃料,
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调查了不同燃料的碳含量,
05:31
and nuclear comes out really low --
it's actually其实 lower降低 even than solar太阳能.
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结果表明:核能有比
太阳能还要低的碳含量。
05:34
And nuclear obviously明显
provides提供 a lot of power功率 --
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而且核能明显
有更高电产量。
05:38
24 hours小时 a day, seven days a week.
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一天24小时,一周7天。
05:41
During a year, a single plant can provide提供
power功率 92 percent百分 of the time.
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一年间,核电厂有
92%的时间都在工作。
05:45
What's interesting有趣 is that
when you look at countries国家
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有趣的是,当你关注那些
05:48
that have deployed部署 different不同
kinds of clean清洁 energies能量,
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使用着各种
清洁能源的国家时,
05:50
there's only a few少数 that have doneDONE so
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只有一小部分跟得上
05:52
at a pace步伐 consistent一贯 with dealing交易
with the climate气候 crisis危机.
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解决能源危机的步伐。
05:55
So nuclear seems似乎 like
a pretty漂亮 good option选项,
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核能发电看起来
是个很好的选择,
05:57
but there's this big problem问题 with it,
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但是潜藏一个巨大的问题,
05:59
which哪一个 all of you, I'm sure, are aware知道的 of,
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我保证你们都知道,
06:01
which哪一个 is that people really don't like it.
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那就是人们并不欢迎核电。
06:04
There was a study研究, a survey调查 doneDONE
of people around the world世界,
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在一年半以前,
06:07
not just in the United联合的 States状态 or Europe欧洲,
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有一项不仅仅
针对美国或欧洲,
06:10
about a year and a half ago.
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1531
的世界范围民调。
06:11
And what they found发现
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1334
他们发现
06:13
is that nuclear is actually其实 one
of the least最小 popular流行 forms形式 of energy能源.
135
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3792
核能发电是最不受
欢迎的
发电方式之一。
06:16
Even oil is more popular流行 than nuclear.
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364902
2430
甚至石油都比
核能发电更受欢迎。
06:19
And while nuclear kind of
edges边缘 out coal煤炭, the thing is,
137
367356
3166
相比煤炭只是
更受欢迎一点点。
06:22
people don't really fear恐惧 coal煤炭
in the same相同 way they fear恐惧 nuclear,
138
370546
3817
人们害怕核能和害怕
煤炭本质上是不同,
06:26
which哪一个 really operates操作 on our unconscious无意识.
139
374387
2417
但正是这种害怕在
不知不觉中
影响我们。
06:28
So what is it that we fear恐惧?
140
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1635
那我们究竟
是害怕什么呢?
06:30
There's really three things.
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1550
其实有三个原因,
06:32
There's the safety安全
of the plants植物 themselves他们自己 --
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关于担心核电站的安全性:
06:34
the fears恐惧 that they're going
to melt熔化 down and cause原因 damage损伤;
143
382325
2805
害怕它会融化并伤害人体;
06:37
there's the waste浪费 from them;
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1345
害怕伴随而来的废料;
06:38
and there's the association协会 with weapons武器.
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2507
以及核电和军事武器的联系。
06:41
And I think, understandably可以理解的,
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由此,我认为,
06:43
engineers工程师 look at those concerns关注
and look for technological技术性 fixes修复.
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4042
工程师已经了解这些疑虑
并在
尝试寻找技术上的解决方式。
06:47
That's why Bill法案 Gates盖茨 is in China中国
developing发展 advanced高级 reactors反应堆.
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395088
2983
这就是为什么比尔盖茨在
中国
研发更先进的反应堆。
06:50
That's why 40 different不同 entrepreneurs企业家
are working加工 on this problem问题.
149
398095
3124
这就是为什么40个企业家
在着手
研究这个问题。
06:53
And I, myself, have been
very excited兴奋 about it.
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401243
2231
对于我来说,这是
一件令人激动的事。
06:55
We did a report报告:
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap低廉."
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403498
2142
我们做了一个报告

《如何降低核能价格》。
06:57
In particular特定, the thorium reactor反应堆
shows节目 a lot of promise诺言.
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405664
2898
具体来说,钍反应堆
带来了光明的前景。
07:00
So when the climate气候
scientist科学家, James詹姆士 Hansen汉森,
153
408586
2104
所以当环境科学家
詹姆斯・汉森
07:02
asked if I wanted to go to China中国 with him
154
410714
2269
问我想不想跟他去中国,
07:05
and look at the Chinese中文
advanced高级 nuclear program程序,
155
413007
2384
去看中国先进的
核能发电项目时。
07:07
I jumped跳下 at the chance机会.
156
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1250
我就欣然接受了邀请,
07:08
We were there with MITMIT
and UCUC Berkeley伯克利 engineers工程师.
157
416689
3191
我们和麻省理工,还有
加州伯克利的工程师一起。
07:11
And I had in my mind心神
158
419904
1676
我的想法是:
07:13
that the Chinese中文 would be able能够
to do with nuclear
159
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2312
中国人能够改良核电,
07:15
what they did with so many许多 other things --
160
423940
2047
就像他们改良
其他东西一样,
07:18
start开始 to crank曲柄 out small nuclear
reactors反应堆 on assembly部件 lines线,
161
426011
3929
先开始在流水线上
拆分小型核能反应堆,
07:21
ship them up like iPhonesiPhone手机 or MacBooksMacBook笔记本
and send发送 them around the world世界.
162
429964
4388
然后把它们像iPhone和Macbook

一样装上船并运到世界各地。
07:26
I would get one at home in Berkeley伯克利.
163
434376
1983
我可以在伯克利
的家里放置一台,
07:29
But what I found发现 was somewhat有些 different不同.
164
437120
1961
但是事实上却是不同的。
07:31
The presentations简报 were all
very exciting扣人心弦 and very promising有希望;
165
439105
2904
演说令人激动,
鼓舞人心,
07:34
they have multiple reactors反应堆
that they're working加工 on.
166
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2486
他们正在研究
复合反应堆。
07:36
The time came来了 for the thorium reactor反应堆,
and a bunch of us were excited兴奋.
167
444543
3305
当讲到钍反应堆的时候,

我们中很多人都十分激动。
07:39
They went through通过 the whole整个 presentation介绍,
they got to the timeline时间线,
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3399
演讲快结束的时候,

他们讲到了时间线。
07:43
and they said,
169
451295
1257
他们说:
07:44
"We're going to have
a thorium molten熔融 salt reactor反应堆
170
452576
3518
"我们的钍盐熔融反应堆,
07:48
ready准备 for sale拍卖 to the world世界
171
456118
2165
将在2040年
07:50
by 2040."
172
458307
1562
准备好走向世界"。
07:52
And I was like, "What?"
173
460850
1613
我的反应是 “啥?”
07:54
(Laughter笑声)
174
462487
1015
(笑声)
07:55
I looked看着 at my colleagues同事 and I was like,
175
463526
2008
我看向我的同事们,
07:57
"Excuse借口 me --
176
465558
1468
“抱歉,
07:59
can you guys speed速度 that up a little bit?
177
467050
2330
你们能加快一点速度吗?
08:01
Because we're in a little bit
of a climate气候 crisis危机 right now.
178
469404
3074
因为我们现在好像
正面临着气候危机,
08:04
And your cities城市 are really
polluted污染, by the way."
179
472502
2726
而且,你们的城市污染
貌似也很严重啊。”
08:07
And they responded回应 back, they were like,
180
475252
2318
然后,他们回答我,
类似说:
08:09
"I'm not sure what you've heard听说
about our thorium program程序,
181
477594
2780
“我不知道你之前是否听说过
我们
钍反应堆的项目,
08:12
but we don't have a third第三 of our budget预算,
182
480398
1915
但是我们缺少三分之一的经费,
08:14
and your department of energy能源
hasn't有没有 been particularly尤其 forthcoming即将到来
183
482337
3112
而且你们的能源局
似乎不是很愿意
08:17
with all that data数据 you guys
have on testing测试 reactors反应堆."
184
485473
3481
把你们测试反应堆
的数据全部给我们。"
08:21
And I said, "Well, I've got an idea理念.
185
489382
2358
我说:“好吧,
我有一个主意。”
08:23
You know how you've got 10 years年份
where you're demonstrating示范 that reactor反应堆?
186
491764
3596
你们不是有十年时间
用于展示反应堆吗?
08:27
Let's just skip跳跃 that part部分,
187
495384
1572
让我们直接跳过那部分,
08:28
and let's just go right
to commercializing商业化 it.
188
496980
2350
然后我们直接市场化。
08:31
That will save保存 money and time."
189
499354
1646
这样能够节约我们
的时间和金钱。
08:33
And the engineer工程师 just
looked看着 at me and said,
190
501379
2592
然后那个工程师
就看着我说道:
08:35
"Let me ask you a question:
191
503995
1626
“让我问你一个问题,
08:37
Would you buy购买 a car汽车 that had never
been demonstrated证明 before?"
192
505645
3518
你会在没有看过产品展示
的情况下买一辆车吗?”
08:41
So what about the other reactors反应堆?
193
509913
1597
换作反应堆呢?
08:43
There's a reactor反应堆 that's coming未来 online线上
now, they're starting开始 to sell it.
194
511534
3452
有一款即将完成的反应堆,

现在,它即将开始售卖。
08:47
It's a high-temperature高温 gas加油站 reactor反应堆.
195
515010
1786
这是一个高温气体反应堆。
08:48
It can't melt熔化 down.
196
516820
1263
它不会融化。
08:50
But it's really big and bulky笨重,
that's part部分 of the safety安全,
197
518845
2735
但是为了安全性考虑,
它的体积巨大且笨重。
08:53
and nobody没有人 thinks
it's going to ever get cheaper便宜
198
521604
2288
而且没有人认为它会变得
08:55
than the reactors反应堆 that we have.
199
523916
1940
比其他反应堆更便宜。
08:57
The ones那些 that use waste浪费 as fuel汽油
are really cool ideas思路, but the truth真相 is,
200
525880
4076
那个把废物当燃料的反应堆
是
挺炫酷的,但真相是,
09:01
we don't actually其实 know how to do that yet然而.
201
529980
2048
我们还不确定要怎样实现。
09:04
There's some risk风险 that you'll你会
actually其实 make more waste浪费,
202
532052
2595
有风险还会产生更多的废料,
09:06
and most people think
that if you're including包含
203
534671
2794
大多数人认为,如果算上
09:09
that waste浪费 part部分 of the process处理,
204
537489
2082
反应过程中的废物的话,
09:11
it's just going to make the whole整个
machine a lot more expensive昂贵,
205
539595
2967
这台机器其实相当昂贵,
09:14
it's just adding加入 another另一个 complicated复杂 step.
206
542586
2332
过程反而变得更加复杂。
09:17
The truth真相 is,
207
545765
1294
事实上,
09:19
there's real真实 questions问题 about how much
of that we're going to do.
208
547695
3150
真正的问题是我们应该
在
核能问题上走多远。
09:22
I mean, we went to India印度 and asked
about the nuclear program程序.
209
550869
2886
我的意思是,我们去了印度
并问了他们核电项目的相关问题。
09:25
The government政府 said
before the Paris巴黎 climate气候 talks会谈
210
553779
2398
政府说在巴黎气候会议之前,
09:28
that they were going to do something
like 30 new nuclear plants植物.
211
556201
3056
他们打算建造
30个新的核电站。
09:31
But when we got there
and interviewed采访 people
212
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2071
但是当我们到印度,
采访当地人,
09:33
and even looked看着 at the internal内部 documents文件,
213
561376
2081
甚至查看了内部文件,
09:35
they're now saying
they're going to do about five.
214
563481
2452
他们说现在只建造了5个。
09:37
And in most of the world世界,
especially特别 the rich丰富 world世界,
215
565957
2546
而且世界上绝大部分,

特别是那些富裕国家,
09:40
they're not talking
about building建造 new reactors反应堆.
216
568527
2286
他们没有建造新
核电站的想法,
09:42
We're actually其实 talking
about taking服用 reactors反应堆 down
217
570837
2288
反而在谈论拆毁
09:45
before their lifetimes寿命 are over.
218
573149
1666
那些还未达到
使用年限的核电站。
09:46
Germany's德国 actually其实 pressuring施压
its neighbors邻居 to do that.
219
574839
2788
德国正在给邻国施压,

让他们拆毁核电站,
09:49
I mentioned提到 the United联合的 States状态 --
220
577651
1807
当我们谈到美国,
09:51
we could lose失去 half of our reactors反应堆
over the next下一个 15 years年份,
221
579482
4343
我们可能在未来15年间
失去一半的核反应堆,
09:55
which哪一个 would wipe擦拭 out 40 percent百分
of the emissions排放 reductions减少
222
583849
2817
这可能增加40%的排放量
09:58
we're supposed应该 to get
under the Clean清洁 Power功率 Plan计划.
223
586690
2344
那些本应由清洁能源计划
承担的减排量。
10:01
Of course课程, in Japan日本, they took
all their nuclear plants植物 offline离线,
224
589058
3067
当然在日本,它们把
所有的
核电站都报废了,
10:04
replaced更换 them with coal煤炭,
natural自然 gas加油站, oil burning燃烧,
225
592149
2353
并全部由煤炭,
天然气和石油代替,
10:06
and they're only expected预期 to bring带来
online线上 about a third第三 to two-thirds三分之二.
226
594526
3562
而且他们只计划重新使用
其中的三分之一到三分之二,
10:10
So when we went through通过 the numbers数字,
227
598112
2545
当我们查看
这些数据的时候,
10:12
and just added添加 that up --
228
600681
1323
把它们加起来,
10:14
how much nuclear do we see
China中国 and India印度 bringing使 online线上
229
602028
3121
未来15年内,
10:17
over the next下一个 15 years年份,
230
605173
1962
中国和印度会建
多少核电站呢?
10:19
how much do we see at risk风险
of being存在 taken采取 offline离线 --
231
607159
3556
又有多少面临
被报废的风险呢?
10:22
this was the most startling触目惊心 finding发现.
232
610739
2289
答案令人震惊。
10:25
What we found发现 is that
the world世界 is actually其实 at risk风险
233
613052
3491
我们发现世界正面临着
10:28
of losing失去 four times more clean清洁 energy能源
than we lost丢失 over the last 10 years年份.
234
616567
5464
失去四倍于过去十年
清洁能源丧失量的危机。
10:34
In other words: we're not
in a clean清洁 energy能源 revolution革命;
235
622055
3350
换句话说,我们并不在
进行清洁能源革命,
10:37
we're in a clean清洁 energy能源 crisis危机.
236
625429
2110
我们正处在清洁能源危机中,
10:40
So it's understandable可理解 that engineers工程师
would look for a technical技术 fix固定
237
628992
4172
所以考虑到人们对核能的恐惧,
10:45
to the fears恐惧 that people have of nuclear.
238
633188
1954
工程师们
正在寻找技术
修复是完全可以理解的。
10:47
But when you consider考虑
that these are big challenges挑战 to do,
239
635166
2776
但当考虑到
这些巨大的挑战,
10:49
that they're going to take
a long time to solve解决,
240
637966
2285
解决是需要
花费很长时间的。
10:52
there's this other issue问题, which哪一个 is:
241
640275
1746
另一个问题是:
10:54
Are those technical技术 fixes修复
really going to solve解决 people's人们 fears恐惧?
242
642045
3307
这些技术修复真的能够
解决人们对核能的恐惧吗?
10:57
Let's take safety安全.
243
645828
1558
拿安全问题来说吧。
10:59
You know, despite尽管 what people think,
244
647410
2485
尽管人们是这么想的,
11:01
it's hard to figure数字 out how
to make nuclear power功率 much safer更安全.
245
649919
3133
但是真正让核能
听起来安全是很困难的。
11:05
I mean, every一切 medical
journal日志 that looks容貌 at it --
246
653076
2318
我的意思是,看看那些
有关
核能的医药杂志,
11:07
this is the most recent最近 study研究
from the British英国的 journal日志, "Lancet柳叶刀,"
247
655418
3108
这是英国《柳叶刀》
杂志的最新研究,
11:10
one of the most respected尊敬
journals期刊 in the world世界 --
248
658550
2453
《柳叶刀》是世界上
最受认可
的杂志之一,
11:13
nuclear is the safest最安全 way
to make reliable可靠 power功率.
249
661027
2519
核能是最安全的发电方式。
11:15
Everybody's每个人都 scared害怕 of the accidents事故.
250
663570
1781
每个人都害怕事故。
11:17
So you go look at the accident事故 data数据 --
251
665375
2294
所以你去查看事故数据-
11:19
Fukushima福岛, Chernobyl切尔诺贝利 --
252
667693
1495
福岛和切尔诺贝利-
11:21
the World世界 Health健康 Organization组织
finds认定 the same相同 thing:
253
669212
2703
世界卫生组织在两次事故
中
总结出了同样的结论:
11:23
the vast广大 majority多数 of harm危害
is caused造成 by people panicking恐慌,
254
671939
3975
大部分的伤害是由
人民的恐慌造成的,
11:27
and they're panicking恐慌
because they're afraid害怕.
255
675938
2320
然而他们的恐慌
来源于他们的恐惧。
11:30
In other words,
256
678282
1225
换句话说,
11:31
the harm危害 that's caused造成
isn't actually其实 caused造成 by the machines
257
679531
3533
伤害并不是由机器
11:35
or the radiation辐射.
258
683088
1381
或是辐射造成的,
11:36
It's caused造成 by our fears恐惧.
259
684493
1729
而是由我们的恐惧造成的。
11:38
And what about the waste浪费?
260
686573
1445
那来自核能的废物呢?
11:40
Everyone大家 worries about the waste浪费.
261
688042
1592
每个人都在担心废料。
11:41
Well, the interesting有趣
thing about the waste浪费
262
689658
2183
但是,有趣的是,
11:43
is how little of it there is.
263
691865
1419
产生的废物,
其实只有一点儿。
11:45
This is just from one plant.
264
693308
1377
这就是由一个
核电站产生的废料。
11:46
If you take all the nuclear waste浪费
we've我们已经 ever made制作 in the United联合的 States状态,
265
694709
3377
如果你把美国核电站
产生的
所有废物加起来,
11:50
put it on a football足球 field领域, stacked堆叠 it up,
266
698110
2199
放到一个橄榄球场地,
堆积起来,
11:52
it would only reach达到 20 feet high.
267
700333
2223
只有6.1米高。
11:54
And people say it's poisoning中毒
people or doing something --
268
702580
3274
人们说废物会对人体
或其他事物产生伤害-
11:57
it's not, it's just sitting坐在
there, it's just being存在 monitored监控.
269
705878
2899
但它并不会,只是被堆积
在那里,
并有人监管着。
12:00
There's not very much of it.
270
708801
1387
而且量并不大。
12:02
By contrast对比, the waste浪费 that we don't
control控制 from energy能源 production生产 --
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相反,我们没有控制
的发电产生的废物,
12:06
we call it "pollution污染," and it kills杀死
seven million百万 people a year,
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我们称之为“污染”,
一年内七百万人死于此,
12:09
and it's threatening危险的 very serious严重
levels水平 of global全球 warming变暖.
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而且它威胁着世界,
大大加重气候变暖。
12:12
And the truth真相 is that even if we get
good at using运用 that waste浪费 as fuel汽油,
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事实上,如果我们能够

很好地把废物当成燃料,
12:16
there's always going to be
some fuel汽油 left over.
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世界上总会有剩余的燃料。
12:18
That means手段 there's always going to be
people that think it's a big problem问题
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这就意味着总会有人

认为这是一个大问题,
12:22
for reasons原因 that maybe don't have
as much to do with the actual实际 waste浪费
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因为我们可能没有能够
12:25
as we think.
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在预期之内
很好
的利用废物。
12:26
Well, what about the weapons武器?
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好,那武器呢?
12:29
Maybe the most surprising奇怪 thing
is that we can't find any examples例子
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可能最令人惊讶的
是
我们找不到任何例子,
12:32
of countries国家 that have nuclear power功率
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没有哪个拥有核能的国家,
12:34
and then, "Oh!" decide决定 to go get a weapon武器.
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突然说,“哦”,然后
决定要制造一个武器。
12:36
In fact事实, it works作品 the opposite对面.
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事实正相反,
12:38
What we find is the only way we know
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我们发现,
唯一能使我们
12:40
how to get rid摆脱 large numbers数字
of nuclear weapons武器
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摆脱大量核武器的途径,
12:43
is by using运用 the plutonium in the warheads弹头
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就是把弹头中的钚,
12:46
as fuel汽油 in our nuclear power功率 plants植物.
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当成反应堆中的燃料。
12:48
And so, if you are wanting希望 to get
the world世界 rid摆脱 of nuclear weapons武器,
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因此,如果你想让
世界没有核武器,
12:52
then we're going to need
a lot more nuclear power功率.
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就要使用更多的核电。
12:55
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
13:01
As I was leaving离开 China中国,
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当我离开中国的时候,
13:02
the engineer工程师 that brought Bill法案 Gates盖茨 there
kind of pulled me aside在旁边,
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那个请来比尔盖茨的

工程师曾把我拉到一边,
13:06
and he said, "You know, Michael迈克尔,
I appreciate欣赏 your interest利益
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然后他说,“你知道吗,
迈克尔,我很欣赏
13:08
in all the different不同 nuclear
supply供应 technologies技术,
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你能对不同
核电技术感兴趣。
13:11
but there's this more basic基本 issue问题,
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但是有一个更基本的问题,
13:14
which哪一个 is that there's just not
enough足够 global全球 demand需求.
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世界并没有足够大的需求,
13:17
I mean, we can crank曲柄 out
these machines on assembly部件 lines线,
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我的意思是,我能在
流水线上
组装这些机器,
13:20
we do know how to make things cheap低廉,
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我们也知道怎样让它变便宜,
13:21
but there's just not enough足够
people that want them."
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但是没有人愿意购买它们。
13:24
And so, let's do solar太阳能 and wind
and efficiency效率 and conservation保护.
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因此,我们还是使用太阳能

和风能发电,保证效率。
13:29
Let's accelerate加速 the advanced高级
nuclear programs程式.
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我们需要加速先进的核项目。
13:31
I think we should triple三倍 the amount
of money we're spending开支 on it.
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我认为我们应该将
对核项目的投资翻倍。
13:35
But I just think the most important重要 thing,
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但是我认为最重要的是,
13:37
if we're going to overcome克服
the climate气候 crisis危机,
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如果想要解决气候危机,
13:39
is to keep in mind心神 that the cause原因
of the clean清洁 energy能源 crisis危机
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就必须记住清洁能源
危机产生的原因,
13:44
isn't from within our machines,
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那并不是由机器产生的,
13:47
it's from within ourselves我们自己.
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而是由我们自己。
13:49
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
13:50
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Conway Ye
Reviewed by Junyi Sha

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shellenberger - Climate policy expert
Michael Shellenberger is a global thinker on energy, technology and the environment.

Why you should listen

Michael Shellenberger is co-founder and Senior Fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, where he was president from 2003 to 2015, and a co-author of the Ecomodernist Manifesto.

Over the last decade, Shellenberger and his colleagues have constructed a new paradigm that views prosperity, cheap energy and nuclear power as the keys to environmental progress. A book he co-wrote (with Ted Nordhaus) in 2007, Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility, was called by Wired magazine "the best thing to happen to environmentalism since Rachel Carson's Silent Spring," while Time magazine called him a "hero of the environment." In the 1990s, he helped protect the last significant groves of old-growth redwoods still in private hands and bring about labor improvements to Nike factories in Asia.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shellenberger | Speaker | TED.com