TED@UPS
Wanis Kabbaj: What a driverless world could look like
万尼斯·卡巴加: 一个无人驾驶的世界会是什么样的？
Filmed:
Readability: 4.7
3,972,315 views
如果车流穿行于我们的街道能够像血液流过我们的血管一样流畅和高效，那会如何呢？交通怪才万尼斯 卡巴加认为我们能够从人类生理系统中找到灵感，并设计出未来的交通系统。这个超前的演讲囊括了像多部件模块巴士，飞行的士和悬挂式磁性车厢等令人激动的概念。这些概念能够帮助实现一个自动的无人驾驶的未来世界。
Wanis Kabbaj - Transportation geek
UPS's Wanis Kabbaj works at the intersection of biology and transportation. Full bio
UPS's Wanis Kabbaj works at the intersection of biology and transportation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Some people are obsessed
by French wines.
by French wines.
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有些人对法国葡萄酒着迷，
00:16
Others love playing golf
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有些人喜欢打高尔夫球，
或者沉浸在文学作品里。
00:18
or devouring literature.
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00:20
One of my greatest pleasures
in life is, I have to admit,
in life is, I have to admit,
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我生活中最大的乐趣是，
我不得不承认，
我不得不承认，
有点特殊。
00:24
a bit special.
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00:25
I cannot tell you how much I enjoy
watching cities from the sky,
watching cities from the sky,
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我无法形容
我有多么享受从飞机上
我有多么享受从飞机上
00:30
from an airplane window.
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俯视整个城市。
00:32
Some cities are calmly industrious,
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有些城市的工业化程度刚刚好，
比如杜塞尔多夫，
00:35
like Dusseldorf
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或者路易维尔。
00:37
or Louisville.
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00:39
Others project an energy
that they can hardly contain,
that they can hardly contain,
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而有些城市已经早已不堪重负，
像纽约，
00:43
like New York
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或香港。
00:44
or Hong Kong.
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00:46
And then you have Paris
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然后，还有像巴黎，
00:49
or Istanbul,
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伊斯坦堡这样
充满历史的城市。
00:51
and their patina full of history.
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00:54
I see cities as living beings.
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我把城市当作生命体，
00:56
And when I discover them from far above,
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当我从高空鸟瞰它们的时候，
00:59
I like to find those main streets
and highways that structure their space.
and highways that structure their space.
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我喜欢寻找那些组成了
城市框架的主要街道和高速公路。
城市框架的主要街道和高速公路。
01:04
Especially at night,
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特别是在晚上，
人们让这些城市的动脉变得
异常鲜红和金黄：
异常鲜红和金黄：
01:05
when commuters make these arteries
look dramatically red and golden:
look dramatically red and golden:
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01:10
the city's vascular system
performing its vital function
performing its vital function
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城市的血液循环系统生机勃勃地
展现在你的眼前。
01:15
right before your eyes.
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01:17
But when I'm sitting in my car
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但是，当我坐在自己的车里，
01:21
after an hour and a half
of commute every day,
of commute every day,
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每天有一个半小时的时间都堵在路上，
眼前的一切就截然不同了。
01:24
that reality looks very different.
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（笑声）
01:26
(Laughter)
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什么都没有——
01:27
Nothing --
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没有广播节目，
01:28
not public radio,
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没有播客，
01:30
no podcast --
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（笑声）
01:31
(Laughter)
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连能让这些时间变得有点意义的
01:32
Not even mindfulness meditation
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01:34
makes this time worth living.
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专注的冥想都做不到。
01:36
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:38
Isn't it absurd
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这难道不可笑吗？
我们制造了能够达到
时速210公里的汽车，
时速210公里的汽车，
01:39
that we created cars
that can reach 130 miles per hour
that can reach 130 miles per hour
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却以19世纪马车一样的
速度驾驶它们。
速度驾驶它们。
01:43
and we now drive them at the same speed
as 19th-century horse carriages?
as 19th-century horse carriages?
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（笑声）
01:49
(Laughter)
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仅仅在美国，
01:50
In the US alone,
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2014年我们就
花了296亿小时在通勤上。
花了296亿小时在通勤上。
01:52
we spent 29.6 billion hours
commuting in 2014.
commuting in 2014.
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01:58
With that amount of time,
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在这么多的时间里，
古埃及人都能造出26个胡夫金字塔了。
01:59
ancient Egyptians could have built
26 Pyramids of Giza.
26 Pyramids of Giza.
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（笑声）
02:04
(Laughter)
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我们用了一年就做到了。
02:05
We do that in one year.
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这是对时间，精力和
人类潜能巨大的浪费。
人类潜能巨大的浪费。
02:06
A monumental waste of time,
energy and human potential.
energy and human potential.
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02:12
For decades,
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数十年来，
我们解决交通拥堵的方式都很简单：
02:13
our remedy for congestion was simple:
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建造新路或者拓宽现存的道路，
02:15
build new roads or enlarge existing ones.
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02:19
And it worked.
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效果还算不错。
巴黎的建设卓有成效，
02:20
It worked admirably for Paris,
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他们拆毁了上百幢历史建筑，
02:22
when the city tore down
hundreds of historical buildings
hundreds of historical buildings
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建造了137公里的
02:25
to create 85 miles
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交通友好型的大道。
02:27
of transportation-friendly boulevards.
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02:30
And it still works today
in fast-growing emerging cities.
in fast-growing emerging cities.
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在当今快速兴起的城市中也是如此。
02:34
But in more established urban centers,
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但是在很多繁华的城市中心，
较大的道路拓宽几乎是不可能的：
02:36
significant network expansions
are almost impossible:
are almost impossible:
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建筑过于密集，
02:40
habitat is just too dense,
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房价过高，
02:42
real estate, too expensive
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公共建设资金太少。
02:44
and public finances, too fragile.
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02:47
Our city's vascular system
is getting clogged, it's getting sick,
is getting clogged, it's getting sick,
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我们的城市血液循环系统正在
变得拥堵，无法正常发挥功能，
变得拥堵，无法正常发挥功能，
应该引起我们的重视。
02:51
and we should pay attention.
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我们现有的思维方式
已经不起作用了。
已经不起作用了。
02:53
Our current way
of thinking is not working.
of thinking is not working.
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02:56
For our transportation to flow,
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为了让交通流动起来，
我们需要一种新的灵感。
02:58
we need a new source of inspiration.
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03:02
So after 16 years
working in transportation,
working in transportation,
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我在交通部门工作了16年，
03:05
my "aha moment" happened
when speaking with a biotech customer.
when speaking with a biotech customer.
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在和一个生物技术背景的
顾客交谈时突然茅塞顿开。
顾客交谈时突然茅塞顿开。
03:09
She was telling me how her treatment
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她告诉我她的研究
如何影响了我们血液循环
系统的一些特殊性质。
系统的一些特殊性质。
03:11
was leveraging specific properties
of our vascular system.
of our vascular system.
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03:15
"Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system --
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“哇”，我想到，“我们的血液循环系统，
我们身体内的所有动脉和静脉，
03:18
all the veins and arteries in our body
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每天都在创造生理的奇迹。"
03:21
making miracles of logistics every day."
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03:25
This is the moment I realized
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就是那个时候我意识到，
生物学已经存在于交通方面
03:27
that biology has been
in the transportation business
in the transportation business
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几十亿年了。
03:30
for billions of years.
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03:32
It has been testing countless solutions
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它已经测试过无数方法，
转移养分，气体和蛋白质。
03:34
to move nutrients, gases and proteins.
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03:38
It really is the world's most
sophisticated transportation laboratory.
sophisticated transportation laboratory.
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这真的是世界上最复杂的交通系统。
03:43
So, what if the solution to our traffic
challenges was inside us?
challenges was inside us?
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所以，如果交通拥堵的
解决方案就在我们体内呢？
解决方案就在我们体内呢？
03:49
I wanted to know:
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我想知道，
为什么绝大多数时间，
血液在血管中不会堵塞？
血液在血管中不会堵塞？
03:51
Why is it that blood flows
in our veins most of our lives,
in our veins most of our lives,
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但我们的大城市每天都会拥堵？
03:55
when our big cities get clogged
on a daily basis?
on a daily basis?
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03:58
And the reality is that you're looking
at two very different networks.
at two very different networks.
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事实上，这是两种非常不同的系统。
04:04
I don't know if you realize,
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我不知道你意识到了没有，
04:06
but each of us has 60,000 miles
of blood vessels in our bodies --
of blood vessels in our bodies --
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实际上我们每个人体内都有近
十万公里长的血管——
十万公里长的血管——
十万公里。
04:10
60,000 miles.
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你的体内有两个半的
04:12
That's two-and-a-half times
the Earth's circumference,
the Earth's circumference,
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地球赤道。
04:14
inside you.
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04:16
What it means is that blood vessels
are everywhere inside us,
are everywhere inside us,
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这意味着血管在你身体里无处不在，
不仅只在皮肤下面（看得见的地方）。
04:20
not just under the surface of our skin.
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04:22
But if you look at our cities,
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但是，看看我们的城市，
是，我们的确有一些地铁系统，
04:24
yes, we have some
underground subway systems
underground subway systems
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一些隧道和桥梁，
04:27
and some tunnels and bridges,
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以及天空中的直升机。
04:30
and also some helicopters in the sky.
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但是绝大多数的交通都是在地面，
04:32
But the vast majority of our traffic
is focused on the ground,
is focused on the ground,
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在地表上。
04:36
on the surface.
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04:38
So in other words,
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换句话说，
我们体内的血管系统是立体结构的，
04:39
while our vascular system uses
the three dimensions inside us,
the three dimensions inside us,
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而绝大多数的城市交通系统
都是平面结构的。
都是平面结构的。
04:44
our urban transportation
is mostly two-dimensional.
is mostly two-dimensional.
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04:47
And so what we need
is to embrace that verticality.
is to embrace that verticality.
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所以我们需要利用更多的纵向空间。
04:51
If our surface grid is saturated,
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如果地表已经没有多余的空间，
04:53
well, let's elevate our traffic.
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那我们就把交通系统抬高。
04:56
This Chinese concept of a bus
that can straddle traffic jams --
that can straddle traffic jams --
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这个中国的概念巴士
能够凌驾于拥堵的交通道路之上，
能够凌驾于拥堵的交通道路之上，
05:00
that was an eye-opener on new ways
to think about space and movement
to think about space and movement
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这种对城市内部的
空间和移动的思考方式
空间和移动的思考方式
多么让人大开眼界。
05:05
inside our cities.
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05:06
And we can go higher,
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然而我们可以把
交通系统的位置继续抬升，
像我们的输电网络一样。
像我们的输电网络一样。
05:08
and suspend our transportation
like we did with our electrical grid.
like we did with our electrical grid.
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05:13
Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi
are talking about testing
are talking about testing
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特拉维夫和阿布扎比正在考虑检测
05:17
these futuristic networks
of suspended magnetic pods.
of suspended magnetic pods.
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这些构成未来交通网络的
悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢。
悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢。
05:21
And we can keep climbing, and fly.
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我们还可以继续抬高，甚至飞翔。
05:25
The fact that a company like Airbus
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事实上像空中客车这样的公司
05:27
is now seriously working
on flying urban taxis
on flying urban taxis
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正在认真研究城市飞行的士，
看起来前景光明。
05:30
is telling us something.
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05:32
Flying cars are finally moving
from science-fiction déjà vu
from science-fiction déjà vu
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飞行汽车终于从科幻小说进入到了
引人注目的商业领域。
05:37
to attractive business-case territory.
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这是令人激动的时刻。
05:40
And that's an exciting moment.
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05:42
So building this 3-D
transportation network
transportation network
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建造这些立体交通网络
是减少或解决交通堵塞的方法之一。
05:45
is one of the ways we can mitigate
and solve traffic jams.
and solve traffic jams.
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但还有其他方法。
05:50
But it's not the only one.
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05:52
We have to question
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我们还要考虑
其他基本的选择，
比如我们使用的交通工具。
比如我们使用的交通工具。
05:53
other fundamental choices
that we made, like the vehicles we use.
that we made, like the vehicles we use.
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05:58
Just imagine a very familiar scene:
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想象一个非常熟悉的场景：
06:00
You've been driving for 42 minutes.
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你已经开车42分钟了。
06:03
The two kids behind you
are getting restless.
are getting restless.
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后座的两个小孩开始不耐烦。
06:06
And you're late.
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而且你要迟到了。
06:08
Do you see that slow car in front of you?
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你看到前面那辆慢吞吞的车了吗？
06:11
Always comes when you're late, right?
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总是在你迟到的时候出现，对吧？
（笑声）
06:13
(Laughter)
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那个驾驶员正在寻找停车位。
06:14
That driver is looking for parking.
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06:17
There is no parking spot
available in the area,
available in the area,
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那块区域没有空车位，
但是他怎么会知道？
06:19
but how would he know?
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06:21
It is estimated that up to 30 percent
of urban traffic is generated
of urban traffic is generated
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据估计，有将近30%的城市交通拥堵是由
驾驶员找车位造成的。
06:26
by drivers looking for parking.
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06:29
Do you see the 100 cars around you?
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你看见身边的100辆车了吗？
06:31
Eighty-five of them
only have one passenger.
only have one passenger.
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其中的85辆都只有一位乘客。
06:34
Those 85 drivers could all fit
in one Londonian red bus.
in one Londonian red bus.
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那85个驾驶员能够
装满一辆伦敦红巴士。
装满一辆伦敦红巴士。
06:39
So the question is:
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所以问题是，
为什么我们浪费这么多宝贵的空间？
06:40
Why are we wasting so much space
if it is what we need the most?
if it is what we need the most?
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为什么我们要这样对自己？
06:43
Why are doing this to ourselves?
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06:45
Biology would never do this.
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生物学永远不会这样。
06:48
Space inside our arteries
is fully utilized.
is fully utilized.
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我们血管的空间都被充分利用了。
06:51
At every heartbeat,
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每一次心跳
产生的血压能够为数百万血细胞
06:53
a higher blood pressure literally compacts
millions of red blood cells
millions of red blood cells
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压缩大量的氧气进行运输，
06:57
into massive trains of oxygen
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并很快流遍全身。
06:59
that quickly flow throughout our body.
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07:01
And the tiny space inside our red
blood cells is not wasted, either.
blood cells is not wasted, either.
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连血细胞内的
微小空间也没有被浪费。
微小空间也没有被浪费。
07:06
In healthy conditions,
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在健康条件下，
超过95%的氧容量都能够被使用。
07:08
more than 95 percent
of their oxygen capacity is utilized.
of their oxygen capacity is utilized.
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07:12
Can you imagine if the vehicles
we used in our cities
we used in our cities
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你能够想象如果
我们城市里超过95%的
我们城市里超过95%的
交通工具都是满载的，
07:15
were 95 percent full,
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剩下的空间，能够让你
自由地走路，骑车，
自由地走路，骑车，
07:17
all the additional space
you would have to walk, to bike
you would have to walk, to bike
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享受这个城市吗？
07:20
and to enjoy our cities?
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07:22
The reason blood is so
incredibly efficient
incredibly efficient
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血液是如此有效率的原因
是我们的血细胞不只作用于
07:26
is that our red blood cells
are not dedicated
are not dedicated
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特定器官或组织；
07:29
to specific organs or tissues;
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07:31
otherwise, we would probably have
traffic jams in our veins.
traffic jams in our veins.
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要不然，我们的血管可能也会堵塞。
它们实际上是共享的。
07:34
No, they're shared.
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它们被身体所有的细胞共有。
07:35
They're shared by all
the cells of our body.
the cells of our body.
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07:38
And because our network is so extensive,
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但是因为我们的身体系统如此庞大，
37万亿细胞中的每一个
都有自己的氧气输送渠道，
都有自己的氧气输送渠道，
07:41
each one of our 37 trillion cells
gets its own deliveries of oxygen
gets its own deliveries of oxygen
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有需要时能实现精准输送。
07:46
precisely when it needs them.
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07:48
Blood is both a collective
and individual form of transportation.
and individual form of transportation.
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血液既是集体，也是个体的运输方式。
07:53
But for our cities,
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但是对我们的城市来说，
我们被困住了。
07:55
we've been stuck.
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我们被无尽的争辩困住了，
07:56
We've been stuck in an endless debate
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纠结于创造一个以汽车为中心的社会，
还是打造大型的交通系统。
还是打造大型的交通系统。
07:58
between creating a car-centric society
or extensive mass-transit systems.
or extensive mass-transit systems.
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08:04
I think we should transcend this.
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我觉得我们应该跳出这些限制。
我觉得我们能建造出
结合传统汽车的便捷，
结合传统汽车的便捷，
08:05
I think we can create vehicles
that combine the convenience of cars
that combine the convenience of cars
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和火车巴士的效率的交通工具。
08:10
and the efficiencies of trains and buses.
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08:13
Just imagine.
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想想看，
你舒服地坐在一辆
快速平稳的城市火车上，
快速平稳的城市火车上，
08:14
You're comfortably sitting
in a fast and smooth urban train,
in a fast and smooth urban train,
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还有其他1200个乘客。
08:19
along with 1,200 passengers.
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08:21
The problem with urban trains
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城市火车的问题在于
有时候你要停下五次、十次、十五次
08:23
is that sometimes you have to stop
five, ten, fifteen times
five, ten, fifteen times
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才到达你的站点。
08:28
before your final destination.
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08:30
What if in this train
you didn't have to stop?
you didn't have to stop?
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如果这个火车不用停下呢？
08:33
In this train,
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这辆火车的
车厢能够在移动中自动脱离，
08:35
wagons can detach dynamically
while you're moving
while you're moving
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08:39
and become express, driverless buses
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成为高速的无人驾驶巴士，
飞驰在次级运输道路上。
08:41
that move on a secondary road network.
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08:44
And so without a single stop,
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所以无需任何停顿，
也无需长距离的换乘，
08:45
nor a lengthy transfer,
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你正坐在一辆驶向城区的巴士中。
08:47
you are now sitting in a bus
that is headed toward your suburb.
that is headed toward your suburb.
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08:51
And when you get close,
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快到的时候，
你所坐的部分会脱离，
08:53
the section you're sitting in detaches
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自动驾驶到你的目的地跟前。
08:56
and self-drives you
right to your doorstep.
right to your doorstep.
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09:00
It is collective and individual
at the same time.
at the same time.
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这就同时实现了集体和个体运输。
09:03
This could be one of the shared,
modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.
modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.
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这可能就是未来的公共模块化
无人驾驶交通工具之一。
无人驾驶交通工具之一。
09:09
Now ...
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现在再想象一下，
09:11
as if walking in a city
buzzing with drones,
buzzing with drones,
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你行走在满是无人机，
飞行的士，模块化巴士和
悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢的城市，
悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢的城市，
09:14
flying taxis, modular buses
and suspended magnetic pods
and suspended magnetic pods
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这还不够天马行空。
09:18
was not exotic enough,
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09:21
I think there is another force in action
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我觉得还有一个方法，
能够减轻城市交通堵塞。
09:23
that will make urban traffic mesmerizing.
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09:26
If you think about it,
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想想看，
现在的无人驾驶汽车都在尝试
09:28
the current generation of driverless cars
is just trying to earn its way
is just trying to earn its way
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适应人类的驾驶网络。
09:33
into a traffic grid
made by and for humans.
made by and for humans.
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09:36
They're trying to learn traffic rules,
which is relatively simple,
which is relatively simple,
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它们在尝试学习相对简单的交通规则，
09:40
and coping with human unpredictability,
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并适应人类行为的不确定性，
这相对比较难。
09:42
which is more challenging.
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09:45
But what would happen
when whole cities become driverless?
when whole cities become driverless?
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但是当整个城市都实现了
无人驾驶，会发生什么？
无人驾驶，会发生什么？
09:48
Would we need traffic lights?
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我们还需要红绿灯吗？
我们需要车道吗？
09:50
Would we need lanes?
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限速呢？
09:52
How about speed limits?
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09:54
Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes.
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血细胞可不是沿着特定的通道移动。
09:57
They never stop at red lights.
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他们从不在红灯停下。
第一个无人驾驶城市，
09:59
In the first driverless cities,
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不会有红灯和车道。
10:01
you would have no red lights and no lanes.
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10:04
And when all the cars
are driverless and connected,
are driverless and connected,
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当车辆都实现无人驾驶
并互相联网的时候，
并互相联网的时候，
10:07
everything is predictable
and reaction time, minimum.
and reaction time, minimum.
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任何事情都是可预测的，
反应时间达到最短。
反应时间达到最短。
它们能够驾驶得更快，
10:11
They can drive much faster
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可以理性地做出选择来加速，
10:13
and can take any rational initiative
that can speed them up
that can speed them up
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10:16
or the cars around them.
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或者让身边的车辆先行。
10:18
So instead of rigid traffic rules,
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没有严格的交通规则，
10:22
flow will be regulated
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车流会被
一个流动网络和不断
自我改进的算法管制。
自我改进的算法管制。
10:23
by a mesh of dynamic and constantly
self-improving algorithms.
self-improving algorithms.
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10:30
The result: a strange traffic
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结果就产生了一种新颖的交通，
混合了德国高速公路的快捷和通畅，
10:33
that mixes the fast and smooth
rigor of German autobahns
rigor of German autobahns
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和孟买交岔路的创造性和活力。
10:36
and the creative vitality
of the intersections of Mumbai.
of the intersections of Mumbai.
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（笑声）
10:40
(Laughter)
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交通会在功能上更活跃，
10:42
Traffic will be functionally exuberant.
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变成血液一样的液体。
10:44
It will be liquid like our blood.
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听上去像是一种悖论，
10:46
And by a strange paradox,
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但我们的交通越机械自动化，
10:48
the more robotized
our traffic grid will be,
our traffic grid will be,
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就会如有机体般，变得更活跃。
10:51
the more organic and alive
its movement will feel.
its movement will feel.
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10:55
So yes,
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所以是的，
生物学包含着所有
关于交通运输的智慧，
关于交通运输的智慧，
10:56
biology has all the attributes
of a transportation genius today.
of a transportation genius today.
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但是这个过程花了数十亿年，
11:00
But this process has taken
billions of years,
billions of years,
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经过了无数消除和变异的过程。
11:03
and went through all sorts
of iterations and mutations.
of iterations and mutations.
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11:06
We can't wait billions of years
to evolve our transportation system.
to evolve our transportation system.
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我们没法等待数十亿年来
改善交通系统。
改善交通系统。
11:10
We now have the dreams,
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我们现在有了梦想，
概念，
11:12
the concepts
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和技术，
11:14
and the technology
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来创造立体交通网络，
11:16
to create 3-D transportation networks,
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研发新的交通工具，
11:19
invent new vehicles
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来改变城市的交通流动。
11:21
and change the flow in our cities.
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11:23
Let's do it.
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让我们行动起来吧。
谢谢。
11:24
Thank you.
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（鼓掌）
11:25
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Wanis Kabbaj - Transportation geekUPS's Wanis Kabbaj works at the intersection of biology and transportation.
Why you should listen
As the director of global strategy for healthcare logistics at UPS, Wanis Kabbaj finds ways for organizations to transport their temperature-sensitive medicines and biotechnologies safely around the world. For more than 16 years, Kabbaj's professional engagements have always revolved around transportation and innovation. Some of his ventures involved helping EADS Astrium use its satellite space transportation expertise in unexpected markets or participating in the global launch of Logan, a revolutionary low-cost vehicle, that helped Renault-Nissan harness a surprising growth in emerging markets.
Kabbaj is a dual citizen of Morocco and France and lived in four continents. Experiencing constant cultural transitions throughout his life gave him a real taste for analyzing problems through non-traditional lenses and blending disciplines that are usually kept separate.
Wanis Kabbaj | Speaker | TED.com