TED@IBM
Grady Booch: Don't fear superintelligent AI
格雷迪·布切: 无需畏惧超级人工智能
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2,866,438 views
“新技术产生了新的焦虑。“Grady Booch, 这位科学家和哲学家如此说到，”但是我们无需畏惧一个全能但无情的人工智能。" Booch通过解释我们是如何教导人工智能，而非编写它来传递我们的价值观，缓和了我们由于科幻作品导致的对于超级智能机器的恐慌。与其担忧一个不太可能出现的威胁，他强烈建议我们考虑如何通过人工智能使人类的生活变得更美好。
Grady Booch - Scientist, philosopher
IBM's Grady Booch is shaping the future of cognitive computing by building intelligent systems that can reason and learn. Full bio
IBM's Grady Booch is shaping the future of cognitive computing by building intelligent systems that can reason and learn. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
在我还是孩子的时候 ，
我是一个典型的书呆子。
我是一个典型的书呆子。
00:12
When I was a kid,
I was the quintessential nerd.
I was the quintessential nerd.
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00:17
I think some of you were, too.
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我猜你们的一部分人和我一样。
00:19
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:20
And you, sir, who laughed the loudest,
you probably still are.
you probably still are.
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还有你，那位先生，笑得最大声，
说不定你现在还是呢。
说不定你现在还是呢。
00:24
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:26
I grew up in a small town
in the dusty plains of north Texas,
in the dusty plains of north Texas,
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我成长在德克萨斯州北部
荒凉平原上的一个小镇。
荒凉平原上的一个小镇。
00:29
the son of a sheriff
who was the son of a pastor.
who was the son of a pastor.
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我的爸爸是警长，爷爷是一位牧师，
00:33
Getting into trouble was not an option.
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所以自找麻烦从来不是一个好的选项。
00:36
And so I started reading
calculus books for fun.
calculus books for fun.
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所以我开始看有关
微积分的书来打发时间。
微积分的书来打发时间。
00:39
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:40
You did, too.
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你也是这样。
00:42
That led me to building a laser
and a computer and model rockets,
and a computer and model rockets,
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于是我学着制作了一个激光器，
一台电脑，和一个火箭模型，
一台电脑，和一个火箭模型，
00:46
and that led me to making
rocket fuel in my bedroom.
rocket fuel in my bedroom.
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并且在自己的卧室制取火箭燃料。
00:49
Now, in scientific terms,
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现在，从科学的角度而言，
00:53
we call this a very bad idea.
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我们把这个叫做
一个糟糕透顶的主意。
一个糟糕透顶的主意。
00:56
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:58
Around that same time,
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在差不多同一时间，
01:00
Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey"
came to the theaters,
came to the theaters,
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Stanley Kubrick的
“2001：太空漫游”上映了，
“2001：太空漫游”上映了，
01:03
and my life was forever changed.
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我的生活从此改变。
01:06
I loved everything about that movie,
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我喜欢关于那部电影的一切，
01:08
especially the HAL 9000.
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特别是 HAL 9000。
01:10
Now, HAL was a sentient computer
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HAL是一台有情感的电脑，
01:13
designed to guide the Discovery spacecraft
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为引导“发现一号”飞船从地球
01:15
from the Earth to Jupiter.
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前往木星而设计出来。
01:18
HAL was also a flawed character,
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HAL 也是一个有缺陷的角色，
01:20
for in the end he chose
to value the mission over human life.
to value the mission over human life.
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因为在结尾他将任务的
价值置于生命之上。
价值置于生命之上。
01:24
Now, HAL was a fictional character,
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HAL 是一个虚构的角色，
01:26
but nonetheless he speaks to our fears,
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但尽管如此，他挑战了我们的恐惧，
01:29
our fears of being subjugated
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被一些冷漠无情的
01:31
by some unfeeling, artificial intelligence
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人工智能（AI）
01:34
who is indifferent to our humanity.
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所统治的恐惧。
01:37
I believe that such fears are unfounded.
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但我相信这些恐惧只是杞人忧天。
的确，我们正处于人类历史上
01:40
Indeed, we stand at a remarkable time
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一个值得铭记的时间点，
01:43
in human history,
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不甘被自身肉体和头脑所局限，
01:44
where, driven by refusal to accept
the limits of our bodies and our minds,
the limits of our bodies and our minds,
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我们正在制造
01:49
we are building machines
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那些可以通过我们无法想象的方式
01:51
of exquisite, beautiful
complexity and grace
complexity and grace
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01:55
that will extend the human experience
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来拓展人类体验的机器，
01:57
in ways beyond our imagining.
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它们精美，复杂，而且优雅。
01:59
After a career that led me
from the Air Force Academy
from the Air Force Academy
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我在空军学院
02:02
to Space Command to now,
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和航天司令部工作过，
02:04
I became a systems engineer,
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现在是一个系统工程师。
02:06
and recently I was drawn
into an engineering problem
into an engineering problem
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最近我碰到了一个和
NASA火星任务相关的
NASA火星任务相关的
02:08
associated with NASA's mission to Mars.
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工程问题。
02:11
Now, in space flights to the Moon,
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当前，前往月球的宇宙飞行，
02:13
we can rely upon
mission control in Houston
mission control in Houston
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我们可以依靠休斯顿的指挥中心
02:17
to watch over all aspects of a flight.
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来密切关注飞行的各个方面。
02:19
However, Mars is 200 times further away,
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但是，火星相比而言
多出了200倍的距离，
多出了200倍的距离，
02:22
and as a result it takes
on average 13 minutes
on average 13 minutes
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这使得一个信号从地球到火星
02:25
for a signal to travel
from the Earth to Mars.
from the Earth to Mars.
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平均要花费13分钟。
02:29
If there's trouble,
there's not enough time.
there's not enough time.
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如果有了麻烦，
我们并没有足够的时间来解决。
我们并没有足够的时间来解决。
02:32
And so a reasonable engineering solution
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所以一个可靠的工程解决方案
02:35
calls for us to put mission control
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促使我们把一个指挥中枢
02:37
inside the walls of the Orion spacecraft.
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放在“猎户星”飞船之中。
02:41
Another fascinating idea
in the mission profile
in the mission profile
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在任务档案中的另一个创意
02:43
places humanoid robots
on the surface of Mars
on the surface of Mars
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是在人类抵达火星之前，把人形机器人
02:46
before the humans themselves arrive,
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先一步放在火星表面，
02:48
first to build facilities
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它们可以先建造据点，
然后作为科学团队的合作伙伴驻扎。
02:50
and later to serve as collaborative
members of the science team.
members of the science team.
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02:55
Now, as I looked at this
from an engineering perspective,
from an engineering perspective,
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当我从工程师的角度看待这个想法，
02:58
it became very clear to me
that what I needed to architect
that what I needed to architect
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对于建造一个聪明，懂得合作，
03:01
was a smart, collaborative,
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擅长社交的人工智能的需求
03:03
socially intelligent
artificial intelligence.
artificial intelligence.
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是十分明显的。
换句话说，我需要建造一个和HAL一样，
03:05
In other words, I needed to build
something very much like a HAL
something very much like a HAL
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03:10
but without the homicidal tendencies.
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但是没有谋杀倾向的机器。
03:12
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:14
Let's pause for a moment.
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待会儿再回到这个话题。
03:16
Is it really possible to build
an artificial intelligence like that?
an artificial intelligence like that?
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真的有可能打造一个
类似的人工智能吗？
类似的人工智能吗？
03:20
Actually, it is.
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是的，当然可以。
在许多方面，
03:22
In many ways,
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一个困难的工程问题来自于
03:23
this is a hard engineering problem
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AI的各个零件，
03:25
with elements of AI,
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而不是什么琐碎的AI问题。
03:26
not some wet hair ball of an AI problem
that needs to be engineered.
that needs to be engineered.
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借用Alan Turing的话来说，
03:31
To paraphrase Alan Turing,
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我没有兴趣建造一台有情感的机器。
03:34
I'm not interested
in building a sentient machine.
in building a sentient machine.
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我不是要建造HAL。
03:36
I'm not building a HAL.
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我只想要一个简单的大脑，
03:38
All I'm after is a simple brain,
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一个能让你以为它有智能的东西。
03:40
something that offers
the illusion of intelligence.
the illusion of intelligence.
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03:45
The art and the science of computing
have come a long way
have come a long way
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自从HAL登上荧幕，
关于编程的技术和艺术
关于编程的技术和艺术
已经发展了许多，
03:48
since HAL was onscreen,
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我能想象如果它的发明者
Chandra博士今天在这里的话，
Chandra博士今天在这里的话，
03:49
and I'd imagine if his inventor
Dr. Chandra were here today,
Dr. Chandra were here today,
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他会有很多的问题问我们。
03:52
he'd have a whole lot of questions for us.
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我们真的可能
03:55
Is it really possible for us
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用一个连接了无数设备的系统，
03:57
to take a system of millions
upon millions of devices,
upon millions of devices,
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通过读取数据流，
04:01
to read in their data streams,
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来预测它们的失败并提前行动吗？
04:02
to predict their failures
and act in advance?
and act in advance?
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是的。
04:05
Yes.
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我们能建造一个和人类
用语言交流的系统吗？
用语言交流的系统吗？
04:06
Can we build systems that converse
with humans in natural language?
with humans in natural language?
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能。
04:09
Yes.
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我们能够打造一个能
辨识目标，鉴别情绪，
辨识目标，鉴别情绪，
04:10
Can we build systems
that recognize objects, identify emotions,
that recognize objects, identify emotions,
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表现自身情感，打游戏，
甚至读唇的系统吗？
甚至读唇的系统吗？
04:13
emote themselves,
play games and even read lips?
play games and even read lips?
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可以。
04:17
Yes.
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我们可以建造一个能设定目标，
04:18
Can we build a system that sets goals,
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通过各种达成目的的
方法来学习的系统吗？
方法来学习的系统吗？
04:20
that carries out plans against those goals
and learns along the way?
and learns along the way?
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也可以。
04:24
Yes.
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我们可以建造一个类似人脑的系统吗？
04:25
Can we build systems
that have a theory of mind?
that have a theory of mind?
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这是我们正在努力做的。
04:28
This we are learning to do.
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我们可以建造一个有道德
和感情基础的系统吗？
和感情基础的系统吗？
04:30
Can we build systems that have
an ethical and moral foundation?
an ethical and moral foundation?
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04:34
This we must learn how to do.
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这是我们必须要学习的。
04:37
So let's accept for a moment
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总而言之，
建造一个类似的用于这类任务的
04:38
that it's possible to build
such an artificial intelligence
such an artificial intelligence
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人工智能是可行的。
04:41
for this kind of mission and others.
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另一个你必须扪心自问的问题是，
04:43
The next question
you must ask yourself is,
you must ask yourself is,
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我们应该害怕它吗？
04:46
should we fear it?
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毕竟，每一种新技术
04:47
Now, every new technology
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都给我们带来某种程度的不安。
04:49
brings with it
some measure of trepidation.
some measure of trepidation.
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我们第一次看见汽车的时候，
04:52
When we first saw cars,
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人们悲叹我们会看到家庭的毁灭。
04:54
people lamented that we would see
the destruction of the family.
the destruction of the family.
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我们第一次看见电话的时候，
04:58
When we first saw telephones come in,
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人们担忧这会破坏所有的文明交流。
05:01
people were worried it would destroy
all civil conversation.
all civil conversation.
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在某个时间点我们看到书写文字的蔓延，
05:04
At a point in time we saw
the written word become pervasive,
the written word become pervasive,
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人们认为我们会丧失记忆的能力。
05:08
people thought we would lose
our ability to memorize.
our ability to memorize.
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这些在某个程度上是合理的，
05:10
These things are all true to a degree,
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但也正是这些技术
05:12
but it's also the case
that these technologies
that these technologies
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给人类的生活在某些方面
05:15
brought to us things
that extended the human experience
that extended the human experience
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带来了前所未有的体验。
05:18
in some profound ways.
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05:21
So let's take this a little further.
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我们再稍稍扩展一下。
05:25
I do not fear the creation
of an AI like this,
of an AI like this,
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我并不畏惧这类人工智能的诞生，
因为它最终会融入我们的部分价值观。
05:29
because it will eventually
embody some of our values.
embody some of our values.
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想想这个：建造一个认知系统
05:33
Consider this: building a cognitive system
is fundamentally different
is fundamentally different
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与建造一个以传统的软件为主的
系统有着本质的不同。
系统有着本质的不同。
05:37
than building a traditional
software-intensive system of the past.
software-intensive system of the past.
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05:40
We don't program them. We teach them.
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我们不编译它们。我们教导它们。
为了教会系统如何识别花朵，
05:43
In order to teach a system
how to recognize flowers,
how to recognize flowers,
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我给它看了上千种我喜欢的花。
05:45
I show it thousands of flowers
of the kinds I like.
of the kinds I like.
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为了教会系统怎么打游戏——
05:48
In order to teach a system
how to play a game --
how to play a game --
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当然，我会。你们也会。
05:51
Well, I would. You would, too.
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05:54
I like flowers. Come on.
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我喜欢花。这没什么。
05:57
To teach a system
how to play a game like Go,
how to play a game like Go,
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为了教会系统如何玩像围棋一样的游戏，
我玩了许多围棋的游戏，
06:00
I'd have it play thousands of games of Go,
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但是在这个过程中
06:02
but in the process I also teach it
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我也教会它如何分别差游戏和好游戏。
06:04
how to discern
a good game from a bad game.
a good game from a bad game.
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如果我想要一个人工智能法律助手，
06:06
If I want to create an artificially
intelligent legal assistant,
intelligent legal assistant,
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我会给它一些法律文集，
06:10
I will teach it some corpus of law
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但同时我会将 怜悯和正义
06:12
but at the same time I am fusing with it
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也是法律的一部分 这种观点融入其中。
06:14
the sense of mercy and justice
that is part of that law.
that is part of that law.
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用一个术语来解释，
就是我们所说的真相，
就是我们所说的真相，
06:18
In scientific terms,
this is what we call ground truth,
this is what we call ground truth,
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06:21
and here's the important point:
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而关键在于：
为了制造这些机器，
06:23
in producing these machines,
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06:25
we are therefore teaching them
a sense of our values.
a sense of our values.
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我们正教给它们我们的价值观。
06:28
To that end, I trust
an artificial intelligence
an artificial intelligence
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正因如此，我相信一个人工智能
绝不逊于一个经过良好训练的人类。
06:31
the same, if not more,
as a human who is well-trained.
as a human who is well-trained.
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06:36
But, you may ask,
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但是，你或许会问，
06:37
what about rogue agents,
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要是流氓组织，
06:39
some well-funded
nongovernment organization?
nongovernment organization?
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和资金充沛的无政府组织
也在利用它们呢？
也在利用它们呢？
06:43
I do not fear an artificial intelligence
in the hand of a lone wolf.
in the hand of a lone wolf.
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我并不害怕独狼掌控的人工智能。
很明显，我们无法从
随机的暴力行为中保护自己，
随机的暴力行为中保护自己，
06:47
Clearly, we cannot protect ourselves
against all random acts of violence,
against all random acts of violence,
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但是现实是，制造这样一个系统
06:51
but the reality is such a system
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06:53
requires substantial training
and subtle training
and subtle training
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超越了个人所拥有资源的极限，
06:57
far beyond the resources of an individual.
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因为它需要踏实细致的训练和培养。
06:59
And furthermore,
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还有，
这远比向世界散播一个网络病毒，
07:00
it's far more than just injecting
an internet virus to the world,
an internet virus to the world,
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比如你按下一个按钮，
瞬间全世界都被感染，
瞬间全世界都被感染，
07:03
where you push a button,
all of a sudden it's in a million places
all of a sudden it's in a million places
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并且在各处的笔记本电脑中
开始爆发来的复杂。
开始爆发来的复杂。
07:06
and laptops start blowing up
all over the place.
all over the place.
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这类东西正在越来越强大，
07:09
Now, these kinds of substances
are much larger,
are much larger,
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07:12
and we'll certainly see them coming.
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我们必然会看到它们的来临。
07:14
Do I fear that such
an artificial intelligence
an artificial intelligence
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我会害怕一个有可能威胁所有人类的
07:17
might threaten all of humanity?
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人工智能吗？
07:20
If you look at movies
such as "The Matrix," "Metropolis,"
such as "The Matrix," "Metropolis,"
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如果你看过《黑客帝国》，《大都会》，
《终结者》，或者
《西部世界》这类电视剧，
《西部世界》这类电视剧，
07:24
"The Terminator,"
shows such as "Westworld,"
shows such as "Westworld,"
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它们都在表达这种恐惧。
07:27
they all speak of this kind of fear.
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的确，在哲学家Nick Bostrom
写的《超级智能》中，
写的《超级智能》中，
07:30
Indeed, in the book "Superintelligence"
by the philosopher Nick Bostrom,
by the philosopher Nick Bostrom,
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他选择了这个主题，
07:34
he picks up on this theme
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并且观察到超级智能不仅仅危险，
07:35
and observes that a superintelligence
might not only be dangerous,
might not only be dangerous,
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它还对所有人类的存在造成了威胁。
07:39
it could represent an existential threat
to all of humanity.
to all of humanity.
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Bostrom博士的基础观点认为，
07:43
Dr. Bostrom's basic argument
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这样的系统迟早会
07:46
is that such systems will eventually
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产生对信息的无止境渴求，
07:48
have such an insatiable
thirst for information
thirst for information
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也许它们会开始学习，
07:52
that they will perhaps learn how to learn
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并且最终发现它们的目的
07:55
and eventually discover
that they may have goals
that they may have goals
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和人类的需求背道而驰。
07:57
that are contrary to human needs.
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Bostrom博士有一群粉丝。
08:00
Dr. Bostrom has a number of followers.
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Elon Musk和Stephen Hawking也支持他。
08:01
He is supported by people
such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking.
such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking.
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08:06
With all due respect
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虽然要向这些伟大的头脑
08:10
to these brilliant minds,
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致以崇高的敬意，
但我还是相信他们从一开始就错了。
08:12
I believe that they
are fundamentally wrong.
are fundamentally wrong.
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Bostrom博士的观点
有很多地方可以细细体会，
有很多地方可以细细体会，
08:14
Now, there are a lot of pieces
of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack,
of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack,
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08:17
and I don't have time to unpack them all,
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但现在我没有时间一一解读，
08:19
but very briefly, consider this:
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简要而言，请考虑这句话：
08:22
super knowing is very different
than super doing.
than super doing.
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全知并非全能。
HAL成为了对发现一号成员的威胁，
08:26
HAL was a threat to the Discovery crew
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只是因为它控制了
发现一号的各个方面。
发现一号的各个方面。
08:28
only insofar as HAL commanded
all aspects of the Discovery.
all aspects of the Discovery.
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正因如此它才需要是一个人工智能。
08:32
So it would have to be
with a superintelligence.
with a superintelligence.
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它需要对于我们世界的完全掌控。
08:35
It would have to have dominion
over all of our world.
over all of our world.
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这就是《终结者》中的天网，
08:37
This is the stuff of Skynet
from the movie "The Terminator"
from the movie "The Terminator"
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一个控制了人们意志，
08:40
in which we had a superintelligence
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控制了世界各处
08:42
that commanded human will,
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08:43
that directed every device
that was in every corner of the world.
that was in every corner of the world.
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各个机器的超级智能。
说实在的，
08:47
Practically speaking,
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这完全是杞人忧天。
08:49
it ain't gonna happen.
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我们不是在制造可以控制天气，
08:51
We are not building AIs
that control the weather,
that control the weather,
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引导潮水，
08:54
that direct the tides,
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指挥我们这些
多变，混乱的人类的人工智能。
多变，混乱的人类的人工智能。
08:55
that command us
capricious, chaotic humans.
capricious, chaotic humans.
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08:59
And furthermore, if such
an artificial intelligence existed,
an artificial intelligence existed,
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另外，即使这类人工智能存在，
它需要和人类的经济竞争，
09:03
it would have to compete
with human economies,
with human economies,
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进而和我们拥有的资源竞争。
09:06
and thereby compete for resources with us.
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09:09
And in the end --
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最后——
不要告诉Siri——
09:10
don't tell Siri this --
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我们可以随时拔掉电源。
09:12
we can always unplug them.
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09:13
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:17
We are on an incredible journey
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我们正处于和机器共同演化的
09:19
of coevolution with our machines.
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奇妙旅途之中。
09:22
The humans we are today
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未来的人类
将与今天的人类大相径庭。
09:24
are not the humans we will be then.
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当前对人工智能崛起的担忧，
09:27
To worry now about the rise
of a superintelligence
of a superintelligence
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09:30
is in many ways a dangerous distraction
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从各方面来说都是
一个危险的错误指引，
一个危险的错误指引，
因为电脑的崛起
09:33
because the rise of computing itself
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带给了我们许多必须参与的
09:36
brings to us a number
of human and societal issues
of human and societal issues
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09:39
to which we must now attend.
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关乎人类和社会的问题。
09:41
How shall I best organize society
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我应该如何管理社会
来应对人类劳工需求量的降低？
09:44
when the need for human labor diminishes?
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09:46
How can I bring understanding
and education throughout the globe
and education throughout the globe
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我应该怎样在进行全球化
交流和教育的同时，
交流和教育的同时，
依旧尊重彼此的不同？
09:50
and still respect our differences?
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我应该如何通过可认知医疗
来延长并强化人类的生命？
来延长并强化人类的生命？
09:52
How might I extend and enhance human life
through cognitive healthcare?
through cognitive healthcare?
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09:56
How might I use computing
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我应该如何通过计算机
来帮助我们前往其他星球？
09:59
to help take us to the stars?
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10:01
And that's the exciting thing.
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这些都很令人兴奋。
10:04
The opportunities to use computing
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通过计算机来升级
人类体验的机会
10:06
to advance the human experience
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10:08
are within our reach,
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就在我们手中，
就在此时此刻，
10:09
here and now,
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我们的旅途才刚刚开始。
10:11
and we are just beginning.
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10:14
Thank you very much.
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谢谢大家。
（掌声）
10:15
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Grady Booch - Scientist, philosopherIBM's Grady Booch is shaping the future of cognitive computing by building intelligent systems that can reason and learn.
Why you should listen
When he was 13, Grady Booch saw 2001: A Space Odyssey in the theaters for the first time. Ever since, he's been trying to build Hal (albeit one without the homicidal tendencies). A scientist, storyteller and philosopher, Booch is Chief Scientist for Software Engineering as well as Chief Scientist for Watson/M at IBM Research, where he leads IBM's research and development for embodied cognition. Having originated the term and the practice of object-oriented design, he is best known for his work in advancing the fields of software engineering and software architecture.
A co-author of the Unified Modeling Language (UML), a founding member of the Agile Allianc, and a founding member of the Hillside Group, Booch has published six books and several hundred technical articles, including an ongoing column for IEEE Software. He's also a trustee for the Computer History Museum, an IBM Fellow, an ACM Fellow and IEEE Fellow. He has been awarded the Lovelace Medal and has given the Turing Lecture for the BCS, and was recently named an IEEE Computer Pioneer.
Booch is currently deeply involved in the development of cognitive systems and is also developing a major trans-media documentary for public broadcast on the intersection of computing and the human experience.
Grady Booch | Speaker | TED.com