ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.

Why you should listen

In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.

Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill GatesMark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.

Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.

Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com
TED Dialogues

Yuval Noah Harari: Nationalism vs. globalism: the new political divide

尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利: 国家主义 vs 全球主义:新的政治分裂

Filmed:
2,979,417 views

我们如何理解现在的政治分裂?在这个范围广的对话中,充满了启发。历史学家尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利把我们当下的动荡放在了一个更广的背景下,来对抗到来的因科技引起的扰乱、气候变化和媒体,他甚至谈论了人类的目的。这是TED对话系列的第一集,寻找一个对逐渐恶化的政治分裂的有效回应。为这个在赫拉里和TED负责人克里斯·安德森之间的有趣的对话挤出一个小时的时间吧。
- Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: Hello你好.
Welcome欢迎 to this TEDTED Dialogues对话.
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克里斯·安德森:
你好,欢迎来到TED对话。
00:16
It's the first of a series系列
that's going to be doneDONE
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这是新开始的一个系列的第一集,
00:20
in response响应 to the current当前
political政治 upheaval动荡.
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为了回应现在政治的变动。
00:24
I don't know about you;
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我不了解你,
00:25
I've become成为 quite相当 concerned关心 about
the growing生长 divisiveness分歧 in this country国家
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我开始对这个国家和世界上
00:29
and in the world世界.
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逐渐严重的分裂感到担心。
00:30
No one's那些 listening to each other. Right?
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没人倾听对方,对吗?
00:33
They aren't.
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不。
00:34
I mean, it feels感觉 like we need
a different不同 kind of conversation会话,
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感觉我们需要一个不同的对话方式,
00:38
one that's based基于 on -- I don't know,
on reason原因, listening, on understanding理解,
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一个基于逻辑、倾听和理解,
00:44
on a broader更广泛 context上下文.
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基于一个更大的背景。
00:46
That's at least最小 what we're going to try
in these TEDTED Dialogues对话,
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这是我们在TED对话中要尝试的,
00:49
starting开始 today今天.
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从今天开始。
00:51
And we couldn't不能 have anyone任何人 with us
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我们找不到其他人开始
00:53
who I'd be more excited兴奋 to kick this off.
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能让我更为此激动。
00:56
This is a mind心神 right here that thinks
pretty漂亮 much like no one else其他
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这个头脑是这个星球上独一无二的,
01:00
on the planet行星, I would hasten to say.
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我不得不说。
01:02
I'm serious严重.
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我是认真的。
01:03
(Yuval尤瓦 Noah诺亚 Harari哈拉里 laughs)
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(尤瓦尔·赫拉利笑笑)
01:04
I'm serious严重.
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我是认真的。
01:05
He synthesizes综合类 history历史
with underlying底层 ideas思路
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他把历史和和潜在的意义结合在一起,
01:10
in a way that kind of takes
your breath呼吸 away.
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让你大开眼界。
01:13
So, some of you will know
this book, "Sapiens智人."
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所以,你们可能会
知道这本书“人类简史”。
01:16
Has anyone任何人 here read "Sapiens智人"?
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在场有人读过“人类简史”吗?
01:18
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
01:19
I mean, I could not put it down.
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我无法合上这本书。
01:22
The way that he tells告诉 the story故事 of mankind人类
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他讲述人类故事的方式,
01:26
through通过 big ideas思路 that really make you
think differently不同 --
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通过宏观意识形态让你换个角度思考,
01:30
it's kind of amazing惊人.
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真的令人赞叹。
01:32
And here's这里的 the follow-up跟进,
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这是接下来的一本,
01:33
which哪一个 I think is being存在 published发表
in the US next下一个 week.
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我记得是下周在美国出版。
01:36
YNHYNH: Yeah, next下一个 week.
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:对的,下周。
01:37
CACA: "Homo智人 Deus杀出重围."
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克里斯·安德森:《未来简史》
01:38
Now, this is the history历史
of the next下一个 hundred years年份.
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这是未来百年的历史。
01:42
I've had a chance机会 to read it.
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我有机会阅读了这本书,
01:44
It's extremely非常 dramatic戏剧性,
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非常激动人心,
01:46
and I daresay敢说, for some people,
quite相当 alarming惊人.
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而且我敢说,对一些人,这非常令人振奋。
01:51
It's a must-read必读.
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这是一本必读书。
01:52
And honestly老老实实, we couldn't不能 have
someone有人 better to help
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诚实地说,我们找不到更好的能够帮助理解
01:58
make sense of what on Earth地球
is happening事件 in the world世界 right now.
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现在世界上正在发生什么的人。
02:02
So a warm welcome欢迎, please,
to Yuval尤瓦 Noah诺亚 Harari哈拉里.
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所以热烈欢迎,尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利。
02:06
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
02:14
It's great to be joined加盟 by our friends朋友
on FacebookFacebook的 and around the Web卷筒纸.
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很高兴能有Facebook和
网络上的朋友们加入我们。
02:18
Hello你好, FacebookFacebook的.
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你好,Facebook。
02:20
And all of you, as I start开始
asking questions问题 of Yuval尤瓦,
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在我开始问尤瓦尔问题的时候,
02:24
come up with your own拥有 questions问题,
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你们可以提出自己的问题,
02:25
and not necessarily一定 about
the political政治 scandal丑闻 du jour怨妇,
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不一定要关于现代政治,
02:28
but about the broader更广泛 understanding理解
of: Where are we heading标题?
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可以关于更广的对
“我们去向何方?”的理解。
02:34
You ready准备? OK, we're going to go.
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准备好了吗?我们开始吧。
02:36
So here we are, Yuval尤瓦:
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现在,尤瓦尔,
02:37
New York纽约 City, 2017,
there's a new president主席 in power功率,
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2017,纽约,新总统上台,
02:41
and shock休克 waves波浪 rippling荡漾 around the world世界.
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惊讶席卷全球。
02:44
What on Earth地球 is happening事件?
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到底在发生什么?
02:47
YNHYNH: I think the basic基本 thing that happened发生
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:我认为基本发生的事情
02:49
is that we have lost丢失 our story故事.
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就是我们失去了我们的故事。
02:52
Humans人类 think in stories故事,
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人类在故事中思考,
02:54
and we try to make sense of the world世界
by telling告诉 stories故事.
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我们通过讲故事来理解这个世界。
02:58
And for the last few少数 decades几十年,
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过去的几十年,
02:59
we had a very simple简单
and very attractive有吸引力 story故事
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我们又一个非常简单和吸引人的故事,
03:02
about what's happening事件 in the world世界.
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关于世界上发生的事情。
03:04
And the story故事 said that,
oh, what's happening事件 is
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故事说的是
03:07
that the economy经济 is being存在 globalized全球化,
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经济正在被全球化,
03:10
politics政治 is being存在 liberalized放开,
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政治在被自由化,
03:12
and the combination组合 of the two
will create创建 paradise天堂 on Earth地球,
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然而两者的结合会在地球上产生矛盾,
03:16
and we just need to keep on
globalizing全球化 the economy经济
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我们只需要继续全球化经济,
03:19
and liberalizing开放 the political政治 system系统,
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自由化政治系统,
03:21
and everything will be wonderful精彩.
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一切都会变的很好。
03:23
And 2016 is the moment时刻
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2016年,
03:26
when a very large segment分割,
even of the Western西 world世界,
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很大一部分的人,甚至是西方世界,
03:30
stopped停止 believing相信 in this story故事.
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不再相信这个故事。
03:32
For good or bad reasons原因 --
it doesn't matter.
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不管理由的好坏。
03:34
People stopped停止 believing相信 in the story故事,
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人们不再相信这个故事,
03:36
and when you don't have a story故事,
you don't understand理解 what's happening事件.
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然而当你没有一个故事,
你就不会理解正在发生什么。
03:41
CACA: Part部分 of you believes相信 that that story故事
was actually其实 a very effective有效 story故事.
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克里斯·安德森:
你部分相信那是一个非常有效的故事。
03:45
It worked工作.
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它起作用了。
03:46
YNHYNH: To some extent程度, yes.
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:某种角度说,是的。
03:47
According根据 to some measurements测量,
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根据一些预测,
03:50
we are now in the best最好 time ever
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我们正处在人类的巅峰时期。
03:52
for humankind人类.
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03:54
Today今天, for the first time in history历史,
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今天,历史上第一次,
03:56
more people die from eating too much
than from eating too little,
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死于吃太多的人比死于吃太少的人要多,
04:00
which哪一个 is an amazing惊人 achievement成就.
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这是很棒的成就。
04:02
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:05
Also for the first time in history历史,
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而且也是历史上第一次,
04:07
more people die from old age年龄
than from infectious传染病 diseases疾病,
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死于年老的人比死于传染病的人多,
04:11
and violence暴力 is also down.
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而且暴力也减少了。
04:14
For the first time in history历史,
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历史上第一次,
04:15
more people commit承诺 suicide自杀
than are killed杀害 by crime犯罪 and terrorism恐怖主义
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死于自杀的人比死于犯罪、恐怖袭击
04:20
and war战争 put together一起.
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和战争加在一起的人都要多。
04:22
Statistically统计学, you are
your own拥有 worst最差 enemy敌人.
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数据上来看,你是你最大的敌人。
04:27
At least最小, of all the people in the world世界,
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世界上的所有人,
04:29
you are most likely容易
to be killed杀害 by yourself你自己 --
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你最可能被你自己杀死。
04:32
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:33
which哪一个 is, again,
very good news新闻, compared相比 --
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这是非常好的消息,相比较……
04:36
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:38
compared相比 to the level水平 of violence暴力
that we saw in previous以前 eras时代.
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相比较我们在前几个时代所看到的暴力。
04:42
CACA: But this process处理
of connecting the world世界
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克里斯·安德森:
但是这个连接世界的过程,
04:44
ended结束 up with a large group of people
kind of feeling感觉 left out,
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结果排斥了一大群的人,
04:48
and they've他们已经 reacted反应.
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而且他们也做出了反应。
04:50
And so we have this bombshell重磅炸弹
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所以这个令人震惊的事情
04:52
that's sort分类 of ripping翻录
through通过 the whole整个 system系统.
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似乎摧毁了整个系统。
04:54
I mean, what do you make
of what's happened发生?
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你觉得正在发生什么?
04:58
It feels感觉 like the old way
that people thought of politics政治,
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感觉像人们看待政治的旧观念,
05:01
the left-right左右 divide划分,
has been blown up and replaced更换.
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左右翼分明,被打消并取代。
05:04
How should we think of this?
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我们该如何看待这个?
05:05
YNHYNH: Yeah, the old 20th-centuryTH-世纪
political政治 model模型 of left versus right
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:是的,
旧的20世纪政治模型,
05:10
is now largely大部分 irrelevant不相干,
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左翼右翼对抗已经无关紧要,
05:12
and the real真实 divide划分 today今天
is between之间 global全球 and national国民,
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真正的隔阂是全球和国家之间的,
05:16
global全球 or local本地.
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国家或者地方。
05:18
And you see it again all over the world世界
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你会在世界各地看到,
05:21
that this is now the main主要 struggle斗争.
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这是主要的斗争。
05:23
We probably大概 need completely全然
new political政治 models楷模
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我们可能需要一个全新的政治模型,
05:26
and completely全然 new ways方法
of thinking思维 about politics政治.
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和全新的看待政治的方式。
05:32
In essence本质, what you can say
is that we now have global全球 ecology生态,
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重点是,
我们可以说现在我们有全球生态学,
05:38
we have a global全球 economy经济
but we have national国民 politics政治,
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我么有全球经济,
但是我们有国家政治,
05:42
and this doesn't work together一起.
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这没办法一起运作。
05:43
This makes品牌 the political政治
system系统 ineffective不灵,
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这让政治系统没有效果,
05:46
because it has no control控制
over the forces军队 that shape形状 our life.
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因为它控制不了我们的生活。
05:49
And you have basically基本上 two solutions解决方案
to this imbalance失调:
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你对这种不均衡有两个解决方案:
05:52
either de-globalize去Globalize的 the economy经济
and turn it back into a national国民 economy经济,
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一是反全球化经济,回归国家经济,
05:57
or globalize全球化 the political政治 system系统.
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或者全球化政治系统。
06:00
CACA: So some, I guess猜测
many许多 liberals自由主义者 out there
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克里斯·安德森:我猜很多自由主义者
06:05
view视图 Trump王牌 and his government政府
as kind of irredeemably不可挽回 bad,
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认为特朗普和他的政府
是无法挽救的恶劣,
06:12
just awful可怕 in every一切 way.
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在所有方面都是糟糕的。
06:14
Do you see any underlying底层 narrative叙述
or political政治 philosophy哲学 in there
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你能看到任何值得参考的
06:21
that is at least最小 worth价值 understanding理解?
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潜在线索或者政治哲学吗?
06:23
How would you articulate说出 that philosophy哲学?
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你会如何阐述那个哲理?
06:25
Is it just the philosophy哲学 of nationalism民族主义?
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只是国家主义的哲理吗?
06:28
YNHYNH: I think the underlying底层
feeling感觉 or idea理念
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
我认为潜在的感觉和观点
06:33
is that the political政治 system系统 --
something is broken破碎 there.
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是政治系统内的一些东西垮掉了。
06:38
It doesn't empower授权
the ordinary普通 person anymore.
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它不再给普通人权利了。
06:41
It doesn't care关心 so much
about the ordinary普通 person anymore,
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它不再那么关注普通人,
06:45
and I think this diagnosis诊断
of the political政治 disease疾病 is correct正确.
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我认为这个对政治
存在问题的诊断是正确的。
06:50
With regard看待 to the answers答案,
I am far less certain某些.
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但是对于答案,我并不确定。
06:53
I think what we are seeing眼看
is the immediate即时 human人的 reaction反应:
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我认为我们正在
经历的是人类立刻的反应:
06:57
if something doesn't work, let's go back.
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如果一些事情不再运作,
让我们回到过去。
06:59
And you see it all over the world世界,
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你能在全世界看到这个现象,
07:01
that people, almost几乎 nobody没有人
in the political政治 system系统 today今天,
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在现代政治系统里几乎没有人
07:05
has any future-oriented面向未来 vision视力
of where humankind人类 is going.
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有任何人类未来发展的远见。
07:10
Almost几乎 everywhere到处,
you see retrograde退化 vision视力:
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几乎世界各地,你会看到倒退的观念:
07:13
"Let's make America美国 great again,"
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“让美国再次伟大。”
07:15
like it was great -- I don't know --
in the '50s, in the '80s, sometime某时,
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像50年代、80年代的强大一样,
07:18
let's go back there.
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让我们回到过去。
07:19
And you go to Russia俄国
a hundred years年份 after Lenin列宁,
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在俄罗斯,列宁时代几百年后,
07:24
Putin's普京 vision视力 for the future未来
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普京对未来的远景
07:26
is basically基本上, ah, let's go back
to the Tsarist沙皇 empire帝国.
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基本上是让我们回到沙皇俄国。
07:29
And in Israel以色列, where I come from,
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在以色列,我来自以色列,
07:32
the hottest最热 political政治 vision视力
of the present当下 is:
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3252
现在最热门的政治远景就是
07:35
"Let's build建立 the temple寺庙 again."
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“让我们重建寺庙。”
07:37
So let's go back 2,000 years年份 backwards向后.
149
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所以让我们倒退2000年。
07:40
So people are thinking思维
sometime某时 in the past过去 we've我们已经 lost丢失 it,
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4826
所以人们认为在过去的某个时间,
我们失败了,
07:45
and sometimes有时 in the past过去, it's like
you've lost丢失 your way in the city,
151
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3738
就像在过去的某个时间,
你在城市里迷了路,
07:48
and you say OK, let's go back
to the point where I felt secure安全
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你说:好,让我们
回到我们感觉安全的时候,
07:52
and start开始 again.
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然后重新开始。
07:53
I don't think this can work,
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我不觉得这会有效果,
07:55
but a lot of people,
this is their gut肠道 instinct直觉.
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但是对于很多人,这是他们的直觉。
07:58
CACA: But why couldn't不能 it work?
156
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克里斯·安德森:
这为什么不会有效果?
07:59
"America美国 First" is a very
appealing吸引人的 slogan口号 in many许多 ways方法.
157
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“美国优先”是一个非常吸引人的标语。
08:03
Patriotism爱国主义 is, in many许多 ways方法,
a very noble高贵 thing.
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爱国主义是一个很高尚的事情。
08:07
It's played发挥 a role角色
in promoting促进 cooperation合作
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在大群人中促进合作
08:10
among其中 large numbers数字 of people.
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很有效果。
08:11
Why couldn't不能 you have a world世界
organized有组织的 in countries国家,
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为什么世界所有的国家都不能
08:15
all of which哪一个 put themselves他们自己 first?
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把自己放在第一位?
08:19
YNHYNH: For many许多 centuries百年,
even thousands数千 of years年份,
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
很多个世纪,甚至几千年,
08:22
patriotism爱国主义 worked工作 quite相当 well.
164
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爱国主义挺有效果的。
08:25
Of course课程, it led to wars战争 an so forth向前,
165
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1879
当然,它会带来战争等等,
08:27
but we shouldn't不能 focus焦点
too much on the bad.
166
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但是我们不能过度关注不好的事情。
08:30
There are also many许多,
many许多 positive things about patriotism爱国主义,
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爱国主义有非常多好处,
08:33
and the ability能力 to have
a large number of people
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还有能力让一大群人
08:37
care关心 about each other,
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关心对方,
08:39
sympathize同情 with one another另一个,
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同情他人,
08:40
and come together一起 for collective集体 action行动.
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并团结合作。
08:44
If you go back to the first nations国家,
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如果你回到第一民族的时候,
08:46
so, thousands数千 of years年份 ago,
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1825
就是几千年前,
08:48
the people who lived生活 along沿
the Yellow黄色 River in China中国 --
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在中国,住在黄河边的人们
08:52
it was many许多, many许多 different不同 tribes部落
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分成许多部落,
08:54
and they all depended依赖 on the river
for survival生存 and for prosperity繁荣,
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4370
他们都依靠黄河来生存和繁荣,
08:58
but all of them also suffered遭遇
from periodical期刊 floods洪水
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但是他们也遭受周期性的洪水
09:03
and periodical期刊 droughts干旱.
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和周期性的干旱。
09:04
And no tribe部落 could really do
anything about it,
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没有部落可以做出一些改变,
09:07
because each of them controlled受控
just a tiny section部分 of the river.
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因为每个部落只控制河的一小部分。
09:12
And then in a long
and complicated复杂 process处理,
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然后,通过长时间复杂的发展,
09:14
the tribes部落 coalesced合并 together一起
to form形成 the Chinese中文 nation国家,
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这些部落合并在一起,
形成了中华民族,
09:18
which哪一个 controlled受控 the entire整个 Yellow黄色 River
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2634
掌控了整条黄河,
09:21
and had the ability能力 to bring带来
hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 of people together一起
184
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并有能力团结上万人,
09:26
to build建立 dams水坝 and canals运河
and regulate调节 the river
185
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4251
修建水坝和水渠来管理黄河,
09:31
and prevent避免 the worst最差 floods洪水 and droughts干旱
186
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预防洪水和干旱
09:34
and raise提高 the level水平
of prosperity繁荣 for everybody每个人.
187
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3100
并使整个国家繁荣。
09:37
And this worked工作 in many许多 places地方
around the world世界.
188
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这在世界的很多地方都有效果。
09:40
But in the 21stST century世纪,
189
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但是在21世纪,
09:43
technology技术 is changing改变 all that
in a fundamental基本的 way.
190
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3435
科技从根源上改变了一切,
09:46
We are now living活的 -- all people
in the world世界 --
191
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2714
世界上的所有人,
09:49
are living活的 alongside并肩 the same相同 cyber网络 river,
192
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3817
都住在“网络”这条河边,
09:53
and no single nation国家 can regulate调节
this river by itself本身.
193
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没有一个国家能够单独管理这条河。
09:59
We are all living活的 together一起
on a single planet行星,
194
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4043
我们都住在一个星球,
10:03
which哪一个 is threatened受威胁 by our own拥有 actions行动.
195
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2761
被我们自己的行动威胁的星球。
10:05
And if you don't have some kind
of global全球 cooperation合作,
196
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如果你没有某种形式的全球合作,
10:09
nationalism民族主义 is just not on the right level水平
to tackle滑车 the problems问题,
197
597939
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国家主义不是解决这些问题的正确范畴,
10:15
whether是否 it's climate气候 change更改
or whether是否 it's technological技术性 disruption瓦解.
198
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不管是气候变化还是科技发展。
10:19
CACA: So it was a beautiful美丽 idea理念
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克里斯·安德森:所以如果世界上
10:21
in a world世界 where most of the action行动,
most of the issues问题,
200
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3948
大多数的问题和解决方案
都是国家层面的话,
10:25
took place地点 on national国民 scale规模,
201
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2356
并不会产生问题,
10:28
but your argument论据 is that the issues问题
that matter most today今天
202
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但是你认为当今最重要的问题
10:31
no longer take place地点 on a national国民 scale规模
but on a global全球 scale规模.
203
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3144
不再是国家层面了,而是世界层面。
10:34
YNHYNH: Exactly究竟. All the major重大的 problems问题
of the world世界 today今天
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
没有错,现在世界的主要问题
10:38
are global全球 in essence本质,
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2389
都是世界范围的,
10:40
and they cannot不能 be solved解决了
206
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1491
除非通过某种全球合作,
10:42
unless除非 through通过 some kind
of global全球 cooperation合作.
207
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3897
它们无法被解决。
10:46
It's not just climate气候 change更改,
208
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1629
不仅仅气候变化,
10:47
which哪一个 is, like, the most obvious明显
example people give.
209
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3404
气候变化是最显而易见的例子。
10:51
I think more in terms条款
of technological技术性 disruption瓦解.
210
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3078
我认为还有科技发展带来的变化。
10:54
If you think about, for example,
artificial人造 intelligence情报,
211
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3050
想想看,比如说,人工智能,
10:57
over the next下一个 20, 30 years年份
212
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2993
20、30年后,
11:00
pushing推动 hundreds数以百计 of millions百万 of people
out of the job工作 market市场 --
213
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3884
使上亿人失去工作,
11:04
this is a problem问题 on a global全球 level水平.
214
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2251
这是一个全球层面的问题。
11:06
It will disrupt破坏 the economy经济
of all the countries国家.
215
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3503
这会搅乱所有国家的经济。
11:09
And similarly同样, if you think
about, say, bioengineering生物工程
216
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3663
一样的道理,像生物工程,
11:13
and people being存在 afraid害怕 of conducting开展,
217
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2955
人们害怕研究
11:16
I don't know, genetic遗传 engineering工程
research研究 in humans人类,
218
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2661
比如,人体基因实验,
11:19
it won't惯于 help if just
a single country国家, let's say the US,
219
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5289
如果只有一国家并不会有很大起效,
11:24
outlaws不法分子 all genetic遗传 experiments实验 in humans人类,
220
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3324
比如说美国禁止所有人体基因实验,
11:27
but China中国 or North Korea韩国
continues继续 to do it.
221
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3630
但是中国或朝鲜却继续进行。
11:31
So the US cannot不能 solve解决 it by itself本身,
222
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2740
所以美国无法独自解决这个问题,
11:34
and very quickly很快, the pressure压力 on the US
to do the same相同 will be immense巨大
223
682414
4883
很快,美国也会逐渐动摇,
11:39
because we are talking about
high-risk高风险, high-gain高增益 technologies技术.
224
687321
4890
因为这是高风险高回报的科技。
11:44
If somebody else其他 is doing it,
I can't allow允许 myself to remain behind背后.
225
692235
4708
如果其他人在做,我不能落后。
11:48
The only way to have regulations法规,
effective有效 regulations法规,
226
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5688
唯一有效管理
11:54
on things like genetic遗传 engineering工程,
227
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2093
像基因工程这类问题的方法,
11:56
is to have global全球 regulations法规.
228
704796
2012
就是有全球规定。
11:58
If you just have national国民 regulations法规,
nobody没有人 would like to stay behind背后.
229
706832
5038
如果你只有国家规定,
没人会愿意落后。
12:03
CACA: So this is really interesting有趣.
230
711894
2008
克里斯·安德森:这很有意思。
12:05
It seems似乎 to me that this may可能 be one key
231
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1931
在我看来这可能是促进
12:07
to provoking发人深省 at least最小
a constructive建设性 conversation会话
232
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3472
双方有建设性对话的要点,
12:11
between之间 the different不同 sides双方 here,
233
719377
1673
12:13
because I think everyone大家 can agree同意
that the start开始 point
234
721074
3142
因为我认为每个人都会同意
12:16
of a lot of the anger愤怒
that's propelled推进的 us to where we are
235
724240
2697
是开始的不满让我们沦落到这个地步,
12:18
is because of the legitimate合法
concerns关注 about job工作 loss失利.
236
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2748
这个不满就是对失业的担忧。
12:21
Work is gone走了, a traditional传统
way of life has gone走了,
237
729733
3641
没有工作,也会失去正常的生活,
12:25
and it's no wonder奇迹
that people are furious狂怒 about that.
238
733398
3375
所以人们对此不满并不奇怪。
12:28
And in general一般, they have blamed指责
globalism全球化, global全球 elites精英,
239
736797
4552
所以他们责怪全球主义、
世界上的社会高层,
12:33
for doing this to them
without asking their permission允许,
240
741373
2747
在没有他们允许的情况下做出这样的决定,
12:36
and that seems似乎 like
a legitimate合法 complaint抱怨.
241
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2095
这看起来是个很合理的抱怨。
12:38
But what I hear you saying
is that -- so a key question is:
242
746263
3309
但是你的意思,重要的问题的是
12:41
What is the real真实 cause原因 of job工作 loss失利,
both now and going forward前锋?
243
749596
5461
现在和未来的工作岗位
流失的真正原因是什么?
12:47
To the extent程度 that it's about globalism全球化,
244
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2776
一部分是全球主义,
12:49
then the right response响应,
yes, is to shut关闭 down borders国界
245
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4122
然而没错,正确的反应是关闭边界,
12:54
and keep people out
and change更改 trade贸易 agreements协议 and so forth向前.
246
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3980
不让人进入并改变贸易协定等等。
12:58
But you're saying, I think,
247
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1356
但是我觉得你的意思是,
12:59
that actually其实 the bigger cause原因 of job工作 loss失利
is not going to be that at all.
248
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4791
事实上工作岗位流失
最大的原因并不是这个。
13:04
It's going to originate起源
in technological技术性 questions问题,
249
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3714
这是和科技发展有关,
13:07
and we have no chance机会 of solving that
250
775964
2012
而我们无法解决问题,
13:10
unless除非 we operate操作 as a connected连接的 world世界.
251
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2095
除非我们全球化。
13:12
YNHYNH: Yeah, I think that,
252
780119
1519
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:我认为,
13:13
I don't know about the present当下,
but looking to the future未来,
253
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3241
我并不知道现在,但是放眼未来,
13:16
it's not the Mexicans墨西哥人 or Chinese中文
who will take the jobs工作
254
784927
3077
并不是墨西哥人或者中国人抢走
13:20
from the people in Pennsylvania宾夕法尼亚,
255
788028
1567
宾夕法尼亚民众的工作岗位,
13:21
it's the robots机器人 and algorithms算法.
256
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1743
是机器人和计算机算法。
13:23
So unless除非 you plan计划 to build建立 a big wall
on the border边境 of California加州 --
257
791386
4184
所以除非你计划在
加利福尼亚州边境修建一堵墙,
13:27
(Laughter笑声)
258
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1134
(笑声)
13:28
the wall on the border边境 with Mexico墨西哥
is going to be very ineffective不灵.
259
796752
3691
墨西哥州边境的墙不会有什么效果的。
13:32
And I was struck来袭 when I watched看着
the debates辩论 before the election选举,
260
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6348
我看大选前辩论时,我总是很震惊,
13:38
I was struck来袭 that certainly当然 Trump王牌
did not even attempt尝试 to frighten吓唬 people
261
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5737
我很惊讶特朗普根本没有想通过说
“机器人会抢走你们的工作”
13:44
by saying the robots机器人 will take your jobs工作.
262
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2576
来震慑民众。
13:47
Now even if it's not true真正,
it doesn't matter.
263
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2299
即使这不是真的,也没有关系,
13:49
It could have been an extremely非常
effective有效 way of frightening可怕的 people --
264
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3518
这可以是一个非常有效的
震慑并激励民众的方式。
13:53
(Laughter笑声)
265
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1001
(笑声)
13:54
and galvanizing镀锌 people:
266
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13:55
"The robots机器人 will take your jobs工作!"
267
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1609
“机器人会抢走你们的工作!”
13:56
And nobody没有人 used that line线.
268
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1355
没人用这句话。
13:58
And it made制作 me afraid害怕,
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这让我担心,
14:01
because it meant意味着
that no matter what happens发生
270
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4048
因为尽管这意味着在大学和实验室里,
14:05
in universities高校 and laboratories实验室,
271
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2146
14:07
and there, there is already已经
an intense激烈 debate辩论 about it,
272
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2765
对此已经有激烈的讨论,
14:10
but in the mainstream主流 political政治 system系统
and among其中 the general一般 public上市,
273
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4094
但是主流政治和公众,
14:14
people are just unaware不知道
274
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2110
人们并没有意识到
14:16
that there could be an immense巨大
technological技术性 disruption瓦解 --
275
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会有很大的技术变动,
14:20
not in 200 years年份,
but in 10, 20, 30 years年份 --
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不在未来200年,
而是10、20、30年,
14:24
and we have to do something about it now,
277
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而我们现在就需要做一些事情,
14:27
partly部分地 because most of what we teach
children孩子 today今天 in school学校 or in college学院
278
855560
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因为现在我们在学校和大学里教给孩子的,
14:33
is going to be completely全然 irrelevant不相干
to the job工作 market市场 of 2040, 2050.
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6001
都会在2040、2050的工作市场上毫无作用。
14:39
So it's not something we'll need
to think about in 2040.
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3358
所以我们不应该在2040才思考这个问题,
14:43
We need to think today今天
what to teach the young年轻 people.
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我们要在现在思考该教给年轻人什么。
14:46
CACA: Yeah, no, absolutely绝对.
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克里斯·安德森:没有错。
14:50
You've often经常 written书面 about
moments瞬间 in history历史
283
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3917
你写过历史上人类几次无意地
14:54
where humankind人类 has ...
entered进入 a new era时代, unintentionally无意中.
284
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6859
进入一个新的时代。
15:01
Decisions决定 have been made制作,
technologies技术 have been developed发达,
285
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我们需要做出决定,研究科技,
15:04
and suddenly突然 the world世界 has changed,
286
892698
2371
然后突然之间,世界就会改变,
15:07
possibly或者 in a way
that's worse更差 for everyone大家.
287
895093
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可能对所有人都没有好处。
15:09
So one of the examples例子
you give in "Sapiens智人"
288
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2075
《人类简史》中的一个例子,
15:11
is just the whole整个 agricultural农业的 revolution革命,
289
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2091
整个农业革命,
15:13
which哪一个, for an actual实际 person
tilling翻耕 the fields领域,
290
901798
3554
用人力耕田,
15:17
they just picked采摘的 up a 12-hour-小时
backbreaking非常辛劳的 workday劳动日
291
905376
3180
人们每天艰苦地劳作12个小时,
15:20
instead代替 of six hours小时 in the jungle丛林
and a much more interesting有趣 lifestyle生活方式.
292
908580
6248
而不是花6个小时在丛林里
享受一个更有意思的生活方式。
15:26
(Laughter笑声)
293
914852
1042
(笑声)
15:27
So are we at another另一个 possible可能
phase change更改 here,
294
915918
3189
所以有可能我们在另一个转变期间,
15:31
where we kind of sleepwalk梦游 into a future未来
that none没有 of us actually其实 wants?
295
919131
4488
我们就梦游般进入一个
我们并不希望的未来吗?
15:36
YNHYNH: Yes, very much so.
296
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2733
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:是的,很有可能。
15:38
During the agricultural农业的 revolution革命,
297
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1837
在农业革命期间,
15:40
what happened发生 is that immense巨大
technological技术性 and economic经济 revolution革命
298
928676
4420
科技和经济的巨变
15:45
empowered授权 the human人的 collective集体,
299
933120
2865
增强了全人类的能力,
15:48
but when you look at actual实际
individual个人 lives生活,
300
936009
2953
但是对于个体的生活,
15:50
the life of a tiny elite原种
became成为 much better,
301
938986
3494
社会高层的生活质量提高了许多,
15:54
and the lives生活 of the majority多数 of people
became成为 considerably相当 worse更差.
302
942504
4238
但是大多数人的生活质量降低了。
15:58
And this can happen发生 again
in the 21stST century世纪.
303
946766
2705
然而这在21世纪也可能会发生。
16:01
No doubt怀疑 the new technologies技术
will empower授权 the human人的 collective集体.
304
949495
4866
新科技没有疑问会增强全人类的能力,
16:06
But we may可能 end结束 up again
305
954385
2720
但是结果可能还会是
16:09
with a tiny elite原种 reaping收获
all the benefits好处, taking服用 all the fruits水果,
306
957129
4457
社会高层拿走全部利益,全部果实,
16:13
and the masses群众 of the population人口
finding发现 themselves他们自己 worse更差
307
961610
4186
然而大多数人却比以前过的更差了,
16:17
than they were before,
308
965820
1301
16:19
certainly当然 much worse更差 than this tiny elite原种.
309
967145
2788
而且一定比那些社会高层的要差很多。
16:22
CACA: And those elites精英
might威力 not even be human人的 elites精英.
310
970657
2655
克里斯·安德森:
而且那些社会高层可能不是人类。
16:25
They might威力 be cyborgs半机器人 or --
311
973336
1757
他们可能是半机械人……
16:27
YNHYNH: Yeah, they could be
enhanced增强 super humans人类.
312
975117
2207
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
没错,他们可能会是提高过的超人类。
16:29
They could be cyborgs半机器人.
313
977348
1255
他们可能会是半机械人。
16:30
They could be completely全然
nonorganic非器质性 elites精英.
314
978627
2357
他们可能会是完全人造。
16:33
They could even be
non-conscious不自觉的 algorithms算法.
315
981008
2528
他们甚至可以是无意识的计算机算法。
16:35
What we see now in the world世界
is authority权威 shifting away
316
983560
4911
现在世界上的权利已经从人类
16:40
from humans人类 to algorithms算法.
317
988495
2269
转移到计算机算法上了。
16:42
More and more decisions决定 --
about personal个人 lives生活,
318
990788
3524
越来越多的决定有关个人生活,
16:46
about economic经济 matters事项,
about political政治 matters事项 --
319
994336
2672
有关经济,有关政治,
16:49
are actually其实 being存在 taken采取 by algorithms算法.
320
997032
2479
都在被算法取代。
16:51
If you ask the bank银行 for a loan贷款,
321
999535
2634
如果你向银行申请贷款,
16:54
chances机会 are your fate命运 is decided决定
by an algorithm算法, not by a human人的 being存在.
322
1002193
4697
有可能你的命运是被
一个算法,而不是一个人类决定。
16:58
And the general一般 impression印象
is that maybe Homo智人 sapiens智人 just lost丢失 it.
323
1006914
6187
原因可能是人类能力不够,
17:05
The world世界 is so complicated复杂,
there is so much data数据,
324
1013125
4560
世界过于复杂,有太多的数据,
17:09
things are changing改变 so fast快速,
325
1017709
2554
事情变化的太快,
17:12
that this thing that evolved进化
on the African非洲人 savanna稀树草原
326
1020287
3601
这个几万年前在非洲草原上
17:15
tens of thousands数千 of years年份 ago --
327
1023912
1707
进化的东西,
17:17
to cope应付 with a particular特定 environment环境,
328
1025643
3497
为了适应一个特定的环境,
17:21
a particular特定 volume
of information信息 and data数据 --
329
1029164
3484
一个特定容量的信息和数据,
17:24
it just can't handle处理 the realities现实
of the 21stST century世纪,
330
1032672
4336
它就是无法承受21世纪,
17:29
and the only thing
that may可能 be able能够 to handle处理 it
331
1037032
2897
唯一可能能够承受的
17:31
is big-data大数据 algorithms算法.
332
1039953
2072
就是大数据算法。
17:34
So no wonder奇迹 more and more authority权威
is shifting from us to the algorithms算法.
333
1042049
6181
所以越来越多的权力
从我们转移到算法并不奇怪。
17:40
CACA: So we're in New York纽约 City
for the first of a series系列 of TEDTED Dialogues对话
334
1048857
3849
克里斯·安德森:我们在纽约,
这是TED对话系列的第一集,
17:44
with Yuval尤瓦 Harari哈拉里,
335
1052730
2297
和尤瓦尔·赫拉利,
17:47
and there's a FacebookFacebook的 Live生活
audience听众 out there.
336
1055051
3844
还有Facebook的直播。
17:50
We're excited兴奋 to have you with us.
337
1058919
1651
我们很高兴你们的参与。
17:52
We'll start开始 coming未来
to some of your questions问题
338
1060594
2102
我们会开始提出一些你们的问题,
17:54
and questions问题 of people in the room房间
339
1062720
1714
和现场观众的问题,
17:56
in just a few少数 minutes分钟,
340
1064458
1165
在几分钟之后,
17:57
so have those coming未来.
341
1065647
1964
所以做好准备。
17:59
Yuval尤瓦, if you're going
to make the argument论据
342
1067635
3897
尤瓦尔,你认为
18:03
that we need to get past过去 nationalism民族主义
because of the coming未来 technological技术性 ...
343
1071556
6135
我们需要放弃国家主义,
因为科技即将带来的……
18:11
danger危险, in a way,
344
1079218
1841
危险,某种程度上,
18:13
presented呈现 by so much of what's happening事件
345
1081083
1945
根据发生的事情,
18:15
we've我们已经 got to have
a global全球 conversation会话 about this.
346
1083052
2443
我们一定要有一个与此有关全球对话。
18:17
Trouble麻烦 is, it's hard to get people
really believing相信 that, I don't know,
347
1085519
3428
问题是,很难让人们相信这个,
18:20
AIAI really is an imminent即将来临
threat威胁, and so forth向前.
348
1088971
2161
人工智能是一个很大的威胁等等。
18:23
The things that people,
some people at least最小,
349
1091156
2726
人们,至少一些人们
18:25
care关心 about much more immediately立即, perhaps也许,
350
1093906
2035
当今更关注的问题可能
18:27
is climate气候 change更改,
351
1095965
1584
是气候变化,
18:29
perhaps也许 other issues问题 like refugees难民,
nuclear weapons武器, and so forth向前.
352
1097573
4893
还有其他问题像难民,核武器等等。
18:34
Would you argue争论 that where
we are right now
353
1102490
5046
你认为现在
18:39
that somehow不知何故 those issues问题
need to be dialed拨打 up?
354
1107560
3549
那些问题需要被强调吗?
18:43
You've talked about climate气候 change更改,
355
1111133
2160
你谈过气候变化,
18:45
but Trump王牌 has said
he doesn't believe in that.
356
1113317
3656
但是特朗普说过他不相信气候变化。
18:48
So in a way, your most powerful强大 argument论据,
357
1116997
2439
所以,你最有力的论证,
18:51
you can't actually其实 use to make this case案件.
358
1119460
2746
不能用来说服公众。
18:54
YNHYNH: Yeah, I think with climate气候 change更改,
359
1122230
2186
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
对的,我认为气候变化,
18:56
at first sight视力, it's quite相当 surprising奇怪
360
1124440
3707
刚开始,国家主义和气候变化之间
19:00
that there is a very close correlation相关
361
1128171
2504
的密切关系令人惊讶。
19:02
between之间 nationalism民族主义 and climate气候 change更改.
362
1130699
3322
19:06
I mean, almost几乎 always, the people
who deny拒绝 climate气候 change更改 are nationalists民族主义者.
363
1134045
4587
我的意思是,几乎所有
否定气候变化的人都是国家主义者。
19:10
And at first sight视力, you think: Why?
364
1138656
2081
刚开始,你想:为什么?
19:12
What's the connection连接?
365
1140761
1153
联系是什么?
19:13
Why don't you have socialists社会主义者
denying否认 climate气候 change更改?
366
1141938
2786
为什么没有社会主义者否认气候变化?
19:16
But then, when you think
about it, it's obvious明显 --
367
1144748
2351
但是,仔细思考后,其实很显然,
19:19
because nationalism民族主义 has no solution
to climate气候 change更改.
368
1147123
3744
因为国家主义对气候变化没有解决方案。
19:22
If you want to be a nationalist民族主义者
in the 21stST century世纪,
369
1150891
3196
如果你想在21世纪当一个国家主义,
19:26
you have to deny拒绝 the problem问题.
370
1154111
1872
你一定要否定问题。
19:28
If you accept接受 the reality现实 of the problem问题,
then you must必须 accept接受 that, yes,
371
1156007
4487
如果你认清了事实,
你就会接受
19:32
there is still room房间 in the world世界
for patriotism爱国主义,
372
1160518
2776
爱国主义还能存活在世界上,
19:35
there is still room房间 in the world世界
for having special特别 loyalties忠诚
373
1163318
4151
世界上还能有对你的人民和你的国家
19:39
and obligations义务 towards your own拥有 people,
towards your own拥有 country国家.
374
1167493
4634
的特别的忠诚和责任。
19:44
I don't think anybody任何人 is really
thinking思维 of abolishing取消 that.
375
1172151
3820
我不认为有人真的想放弃它。
19:47
But in order订购 to confront面对 climate气候 change更改,
376
1175995
3001
但是面对气候变化,
19:51
we need additional额外 loyalties忠诚
and commitments承诺
377
1179020
4211
我们需要更多的忠心和承诺
19:55
to a level水平 beyond the nation国家.
378
1183255
2005
超出国家范围。
19:57
And that should not be impossible不可能,
379
1185284
2443
而且这不是不可能,
19:59
because people can have
several一些 layers of loyalty忠诚.
380
1187751
3692
因为人们可以忠诚于多样事物。
20:03
You can be loyal忠诚 to your family家庭
381
1191467
2404
你可以忠诚于家庭,
20:05
and to your community社区
382
1193895
1513
忠诚于社区,
20:07
and to your nation国家,
383
1195432
1329
忠诚于你的国家,
20:08
so why can't you also be loyal忠诚
to humankind人类 as a whole整个?
384
1196785
3628
所以为什么你不能忠诚于全人类呢?
20:12
Of course课程, there are occasions场合
when it becomes difficult,
385
1200437
3399
当然,有些境况下,事情变得困难,
20:15
what to put first,
386
1203860
1783
哪个是首要的,
20:17
but, you know, life is difficult.
387
1205667
1823
但是,生活并不简单,
20:19
Handle处理 it.
388
1207514
1151
想方法解决。
20:20
(Laughter笑声)
389
1208689
2644
(笑声)
20:23
CACA: OK, so I would love to get
some questions问题 from the audience听众 here.
390
1211357
4498
克里斯·安德森:
好的,我想让现场观众提出一些问题。
20:27
We've我们已经 got a microphone麦克风 here.
391
1215879
1918
我们有一些麦克风,
20:29
Speak说话 into it, and FacebookFacebook的,
get them coming未来, too.
392
1217821
3217
Facebook也可以参加。
20:33
Howard霍华德 Morgan摩根: One of the things that has
clearly明确地 made制作 a huge巨大 difference区别
393
1221062
3434
霍华德·摩根:这个国家和其他国家
20:36
in this country国家 and other countries国家
394
1224520
1786
巨大的区别,
20:38
is the income收入 distribution分配 inequality不等式,
395
1226330
2214
是收入分配的不平等,
20:40
the dramatic戏剧性 change更改
in income收入 distribution分配 in the US
396
1228568
4214
从50年前到现在,
20:44
from what it was 50 years年份 ago,
397
1232806
1702
美国收入分配巨大的改变,
20:46
and around the world世界.
398
1234532
1151
在世界范围内。
20:47
Is there anything we can do
to affect影响 that?
399
1235707
3143
我们可以做什么来改变它的吗?
20:50
Because that gets得到 at a lot
of the underlying底层 causes原因.
400
1238874
2841
因为这和潜在原因有很多联系。
20:56
YNHYNH: So far I haven't没有 heard听说 a very
good idea理念 about what to do about it,
401
1244283
5314
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:至今我还没有
听说过一个很好的解决方案,
21:01
again, partly部分地 because most ideas思路
remain on the national国民 level水平,
402
1249621
3728
部分因为大多数的想法
都是在国家层面的,
21:05
and the problem问题 is global全球.
403
1253373
1768
但是问题是全球范围的。
21:07
I mean, one idea理念 that we hear
quite相当 a lot about now
404
1255165
2978
一个当今比较常见的主意是
21:10
is universal普遍 basic基本 income收入.
405
1258167
1832
无条件基本收入。
21:12
But this is a problem问题.
406
1260023
1151
但它是有一个问题,
21:13
I mean, I think it's a good start开始,
407
1261198
1652
虽然这是一个好的开始,
21:14
but it's a problematic问题 idea理念 because
it's not clear明确 what "universal普遍" is
408
1262874
3722
但是它之所以有问题,
是因为“无条件”的概念
21:18
and it's not clear明确 what "basic基本" is.
409
1266620
1841
和“基本”的概念不清晰,
21:20
Most people when they speak说话
about universal普遍 basic基本 income收入,
410
1268485
3381
大多数人谈论无条件基本收入时,
21:23
they actually其实 mean national国民 basic基本 income收入.
411
1271890
2785
他们事实上说的是国家基本收入。
21:26
But the problem问题 is global全球.
412
1274699
1744
但是问题是全球范围的。
21:28
Let's say that you have AIAI and 3D printers打印机
taking服用 away millions百万 of jobs工作
413
1276467
5650
比如人工智能和3D打印机在孟加拉国
21:34
in Bangladesh孟加拉国,
414
1282141
1156
抢走上百万份工作,
21:35
from all the people who make
my shirts衬衫 and my shoes.
415
1283321
3248
从生产我的衬衫和鞋子的人手中。
21:38
So what's going to happen发生?
416
1286593
1306
然后会发生什么?
21:39
The US government政府 will levy征收 taxes
on Google谷歌 and Apple苹果 in California加州,
417
1287923
6539
美国政府会向在加州的谷歌和苹果收税,
21:46
and use that to pay工资 basic基本 income收入
to unemployed失业的 Bangladeshis孟加拉?
418
1294486
4581
用那些税来付孟加拉国
失业者的基本收入?
21:51
If you believe that,
you can just as well believe
419
1299091
2636
如果你相信这个,那你会相信
21:53
that Santa圣诞老人 Claus克劳斯 will come
and solve解决 the problem问题.
420
1301751
3663
圣诞老人会到来并解决这个问题。
21:57
So unless除非 we have really universal普遍
and not national国民 basic基本 income收入,
421
1305438
5126
所以除非我们有全球基本收入,
而不是国家基本收入,
22:02
the deep problems问题
are not going to go away.
422
1310588
3135
深根蒂固的问题不会被解决。
22:05
And also it's not clear明确 what basic基本 is,
423
1313747
2732
而且我们也不清楚“基本”是什么,
22:08
because what are basic基本 human人的 needs需求?
424
1316503
2633
因为人类的基本需求是什么?
22:11
A thousand years年份 ago,
just food餐饮 and shelter庇护 was enough足够.
425
1319160
2810
一千年前,食物和庇护所就够了。
22:13
But today今天, people will say
education教育 is a basic基本 human人的 need,
426
1321994
3611
但是现在,
人们会说教育是人类基本需求,
22:17
it should be part部分 of the package.
427
1325629
1573
它应该是其中之一。
22:19
But how much? Six years年份?
Twelve十二 years年份? PhD博士?
428
1327226
3779
但是,多久?6年?12年?博士?
22:23
Similarly同样, with health健康 care关心,
429
1331029
1833
相同,医疗保健,
22:24
let's say that in 20, 30, 40 years年份,
430
1332886
2685
比如20、30、40年,
22:27
you'll你会 have expensive昂贵 treatments治疗
that can extend延伸 human人的 life
431
1335595
3773
你会有昂贵的治疗来延长人类寿命
22:31
to 120, I don't know.
432
1339392
1915
到120岁,可能吧。
22:33
Will this be part部分 of the basket
of basic基本 income收入 or not?
433
1341331
5191
这个会是基本收入中的一部分吗?
22:38
It's a very difficult problem问题,
434
1346546
1429
这是一个很困难的问题,
22:39
because in a world世界 where people
lose失去 their ability能力 to be employed就业,
435
1347999
6258
因为当人们失去工作,
22:46
the only thing they are going to get
is this basic基本 income收入.
436
1354281
3581
他们唯一能够拿到的就是基本收入。
22:49
So what's part部分 of it is a very,
very difficult ethical合乎道德的 question.
437
1357886
5127
所以这是一个非常困难的道德问题。
22:55
CACA: There's a bunch of questions问题
on how the world世界 affords得到 it as well,
438
1363037
3304
克里斯·安德森:
这如何影响世界还有很多未知,
22:58
who pays支付.
439
1366365
1160
谁付钱?
22:59
There's a question here
from FacebookFacebook的 from Lisa丽莎 Larson拉尔森:
440
1367549
2812
Facebook上的丽莎·拉森
提了一个问题,
23:02
"How does nationalism民族主义 in the US now
441
1370385
2575
“现在美国的国家主义
23:04
compare比较 to that between之间
World世界 War战争 I and World世界 War战争 IIII
442
1372984
3415
和上个世纪的一战二战期间相比
23:08
in the last century世纪?"
443
1376423
1421
是怎么样的?”
23:09
YNHYNH: Well the good news新闻, with regard看待
to the dangers危险 of nationalism民族主义,
444
1377868
4448
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
好消息是,不管国家主义的危险,
23:14
we are in a much better position位置
than a century世纪 ago.
445
1382340
3923
我们的情况比一世纪前好得多。
23:18
A century世纪 ago, 1917,
446
1386287
2672
一世纪以前,1917,
23:20
Europeans欧洲人 were killing谋杀
each other by the millions百万.
447
1388983
3133
几百万人欧洲人互相残杀。
23:24
In 2016, with BrexitBrexit,
as far as I remember记得,
448
1392140
4351
2016年,英国脱欧,我所记得的,
23:28
a single person lost丢失 their life,
an MPMP who was murdered谋杀 by some extremist极端主义.
449
1396515
5237
只有一个人失去生命,
一个议员被极端主义者谋杀。
23:33
Just a single person.
450
1401776
1533
只有一个人。
23:35
I mean, if BrexitBrexit was about
British英国的 independence独立,
451
1403333
2685
如果英国脱欧意味着英国独立,
23:38
this is the most peaceful平静的
war战争 of independence独立 in human人的 history历史.
452
1406042
4751
这是人类历史上最和平的独立。
23:42
And let's say that Scotland苏格兰
will now choose选择 to leave离开 the UK联合王国
453
1410817
5789
如果苏格兰决定离开英国,
23:48
after BrexitBrexit.
454
1416630
2176
在英国脱欧之后。
23:50
So in the 18th century世纪,
455
1418830
1984
所以在18世纪,
23:52
if Scotland苏格兰 wanted -- and the Scots苏格兰
wanted several一些 times --
456
1420838
3232
如果苏格兰几次尝试
23:56
to break打破 out of the control控制 of London伦敦,
457
1424094
3533
脱离伦敦的控制,
23:59
the reaction反应 of the government政府
in London伦敦 was to send发送 an army军队 up north
458
1427651
4298
伦敦政府的回应是向北派军队,
24:03
to burn烧伤 down Edinburgh爱丁堡
and massacre屠杀 the highland高地 tribes部落.
459
1431973
3471
烧掉爱丁堡,并屠杀高地部落。
24:07
My guess猜测 is that if, in 2018,
the Scots苏格兰 vote投票 for independence独立,
460
1435468
5556
我的猜测是,如果2018年,
苏格兰选择独立,
24:13
the London伦敦 government政府
will not send发送 an army军队 up north
461
1441048
3409
伦敦政府不会向北派兵,
24:16
to burn烧伤 down Edinburgh爱丁堡.
462
1444481
1603
烧掉爱丁堡。
24:18
Very few少数 people are now willing愿意
to kill or be killed杀害
463
1446108
4267
现在几乎没有人愿意杀人或者被杀
24:22
for Scottish苏格兰的 or for British英国的 independence独立.
464
1450399
2722
为了苏格兰或者英国独立。
24:25
So for all the talk
of the rise上升 of nationalism民族主义
465
1453145
5020
至今国家主义的雄起,
24:30
and going back to the 1930s,
466
1458189
2243
回到20世纪30年代,
24:32
to the 19th century世纪, in the West西 at least最小,
467
1460456
3775
到19实际,在西方
24:36
the power功率 of national国民 sentiments情绪
today今天 is far, far smaller
468
1464255
6584
国家主义的力量至少比一个世纪前
24:42
than it was a century世纪 ago.
469
1470863
1540
小了很多。
24:44
CACA: Although虽然 some people now,
you hear publicly公然 worrying令人担忧
470
1472427
3837
克里斯·安德森:现在有些人,
24:48
about whether是否 that might威力 be shifting,
471
1476288
2756
担心这会不会被改变,
24:51
that there could actually其实 be
outbreaks爆发 of violence暴力 in the US
472
1479068
3398
美国的犯罪会暴增,
24:54
depending根据 on how things turn out.
473
1482490
2347
根据结果来看。
24:56
Should we be worried担心 about that,
474
1484861
1539
我们需要担心这个吗,
24:58
or do you really think
things have shifted?
475
1486424
2066
或者你真的相信事情被改变了吗?
25:00
YNHYNH: No, we should be worried担心.
476
1488514
1491
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
不,我们应该担心。
25:02
We should be aware知道的 of two things.
477
1490029
1625
我们应该意识到两件事情,
25:03
First of all, don't be hysterical歇斯底里.
478
1491678
1637
第一,不要太极端,
25:05
We are not back
in the First World世界 War战争 yet然而.
479
1493339
3447
我们还没有回到一战。
25:08
But on the other hand,
don't be complacent自满.
480
1496810
2940
但是另一方面,不要自鸣得意。
25:11
We reached到达 from 1917 to 2017,
481
1499774
5374
我们从1917到2017,
25:17
not by some divine神圣 miracle奇迹,
482
1505172
2182
不是通过奇迹,
25:19
but simply只是 by human人的 decisions决定,
483
1507378
2024
而只是人类的选择,
25:21
and if we now start开始 making制造
the wrong错误 decisions决定,
484
1509426
2663
如果我们现在开始作出错误的决定,
25:24
we could be back
in an analogous类似 situation情况 to 1917
485
1512113
4485
在几年之内,我们可能会
回到像1917年那样的局面。
25:28
in a few少数 years年份.
486
1516622
1506
25:30
One of the things I know as a historian历史学家
487
1518152
2321
作为历史学家,我知道的一件事情
25:32
is that you should never
underestimate低估 human人的 stupidity糊涂事.
488
1520497
3675
是不要低估人类的愚蠢。
25:36
(Laughter笑声)
489
1524196
2883
(笑声)
25:39
It's one of the most powerful强大
forces军队 in history历史,
490
1527103
3084
这是历史上最强大的力量,
25:42
human人的 stupidity糊涂事 and human人的 violence暴力.
491
1530211
2327
人类的愚蠢和暴力。
25:44
Humans人类 do such这样 crazy things
for no obvious明显 reason原因,
492
1532562
4105
人们做这样疯狂的事情,
然而却并没有很明显的原因,
25:48
but again, at the same相同 time,
493
1536691
1710
但是话又说回来,
25:50
another另一个 very powerful强大 force
in human人的 history历史 is human人的 wisdom智慧.
494
1538425
3604
人类历史上另一个
很强大的力量是人类的智慧。
25:54
We have both.
495
1542053
1166
我们两者都有。
25:55
CACA: We have with us here
moral道德 psychologist心理学家 Jonathan乔纳森 Haidt海特,
496
1543243
2902
克里斯·安德森:
道德心理学家乔纳森·海特
25:58
who I think has a question.
497
1546169
1623
有一个问题。
26:00
Jonathan乔纳森 Haidt海特: Thanks谢谢, Yuval尤瓦.
498
1548871
1483
乔纳森·海特:谢谢,尤瓦尔。
26:02
So you seem似乎 to be a fan风扇
of global全球 governance治理,
499
1550378
2483
似乎你支持世界政府,
26:04
but when you look at the map地图 of the world世界
from Transparency透明度 International国际,
500
1552885
3520
但是当你看“透明国际”的地图时,
26:08
which哪一个 rates利率 the level水平 of corruption腐败
of political政治 institutions机构,
501
1556429
3328
标注政府的腐败程度,
26:11
it's a vast广大 sea of red with little bits
of yellow黄色 here and there
502
1559781
3080
那些作风优良的政府有
26:14
for those with good institutions机构.
503
1562885
1605
大量的红色和一点点的黄色,
26:16
So if we were to have
some kind of global全球 governance治理,
504
1564514
2501
所以如果我们有某种世界政府,
26:19
what makes品牌 you think it would end结束 up
being存在 more like Denmark丹麦
505
1567039
2831
为什么你认为它会变成像是丹麦一样,
26:21
rather than more like Russia俄国 or Honduras洪都拉斯,
506
1569894
2040
而不是像俄罗斯或者洪都拉斯,
26:23
and aren't there alternatives备择方案,
507
1571958
1501
或者不是其他选择,
26:25
such这样 as we did with CFCs氯氟烃?
508
1573483
2086
像我们对CFC做的?
26:27
There are ways方法 to solve解决 global全球 problems问题
with national国民 governments政府.
509
1575593
3107
通过某种方式国家政府
是可以解决全球问题。
26:30
What would world世界 government政府
actually其实 look like,
510
1578724
2214
世界政府看起来是什么样的,
26:32
and why do you think it would work?
511
1580962
1721
为什么你认为它能够有用?
26:34
YNHYNH: Well, I don't know
what it would look like.
512
1582707
3760
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
我并不知道它会是怎么样的。
26:38
Nobody没有人 still has a model模型 for that.
513
1586491
3052
没人有一个模型。
26:41
The main主要 reason原因 we need it
514
1589567
2628
我们需要它的主要原因
26:44
is because many许多 of these issues问题
are lose-lose两败俱伤 situations情况.
515
1592219
4294
是因为这些问题都是两败的局面。
26:48
When you have
a win-win双赢 situation情况 like trade贸易,
516
1596537
2892
当有像交易一样的双赢局面,
26:51
both sides双方 can benefit效益
from a trade贸易 agreement协议,
517
1599453
2916
两方都能从贸易协定中获益,
26:54
then this is something you can work out.
518
1602393
2264
这才是我们能够解决的事情。
26:56
Without没有 some kind of global全球 government政府,
519
1604681
2346
没有某种世界政府,
26:59
national国民 governments政府 each
have an interest利益 in doing it.
520
1607051
2854
国家政府都有独自的利益。
27:01
But when you have a lose-lose两败俱伤 situation情况
like with climate气候 change更改,
521
1609929
3971
但是当你有一个两败的局面,
像气候变化,
27:05
it's much more difficult
522
1613924
1641
如果没有一些权利上的统治,
27:07
without some overarching总体
authority权威, real真实 authority权威.
523
1615589
4886
会变得很困难。
27:12
Now, how to get there
and what would it look like,
524
1620499
2762
如何做到和结果是怎么样
27:15
I don't know.
525
1623285
1360
我不知道。
27:16
And certainly当然 there is no obvious明显 reason原因
526
1624669
3737
而且肯定没有确切的原因,
27:20
to think that it would look like Denmark丹麦,
527
1628430
2280
认为会变成丹麦一样,
27:22
or that it would be a democracy民主.
528
1630734
1588
或者会变成民主政治。
27:24
Most likely容易 it wouldn't不会.
529
1632346
2586
更有可能它不会。
27:26
We don't have workable可行 democratic民主的 models楷模
530
1634956
6031
我们没有可行的民主政治模型
27:33
for a global全球 government政府.
531
1641011
2096
适用于世界政府。
27:35
So maybe it would look more
like ancient China中国
532
1643131
3065
所以可能它会更像古中国
27:38
than like modern现代 Denmark丹麦.
533
1646220
1699
而不是现代丹麦。
27:39
But still, given特定 the dangers危险
that we are facing面对,
534
1647943
5223
但是,因为我们面对的危险,
27:45
I think the imperative势在必行 of having
some kind of real真实 ability能力
535
1653190
5120
我认为大国们有真正的能力
27:50
to force through通过 difficult decisions决定
on the global全球 level水平
536
1658334
4128
在世界实施这些艰难的决定,
27:54
is more important重要
than almost几乎 anything else其他.
537
1662486
4130
比其他都要重要。
27:59
CACA: There's a question from FacebookFacebook的 here,
538
1667591
2098
克里斯·安德森:
Facebook上有一个问题,
28:01
and then we'll get the micMIC to Andrew安德鲁.
539
1669713
1893
然后我们会把麦克风给安德鲁。
28:03
So, Kat Hebron希伯伦 on FacebookFacebook的,
540
1671630
2196
Facebook上的凯特·希伯伦,
28:05
calling调用 in from Vail韦尔:
541
1673850
1668
从范尔:
28:07
"How would developed发达 nations国家 manage管理
the millions百万 of climate气候 migrants移民?"
542
1675542
4211
“发展中国家如何管理
百万气候变化的移民?”
28:12
YNHYNH: I don't know.
543
1680818
2154
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:我不知道。
28:14
CACA: That's your answer回答, Kat. (Laughter笑声)
544
1682996
1892
克里斯·安德森:
这是你的答案,凯特。(笑声)
28:16
YNHYNH: And I don't think
that they know either.
545
1684912
2146
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
我觉得他们也不知道。
28:19
They'll他们会 just deny拒绝 the problem问题, maybe.
546
1687082
1794
可能他们会否认问题。
28:20
CACA: But immigration移民, generally通常,
is another另一个 example of a problem问题
547
1688900
3025
克里斯·安德森:
但是移民是国家层面难以解决的问题
28:23
that's very hard to solve解决
on a nation-by-nation全国由国 basis基础.
548
1691949
2573
的另一个例子。
28:26
One nation国家 can shut关闭 its doors,
549
1694546
1470
一个国家可以关闭边界,
28:28
but maybe that stores商店 up
problems问题 for the future未来.
550
1696040
2534
但是这可能加深未来的问题。
28:30
YNHYNH: Yes, I mean --
it's another另一个 very good case案件,
551
1698598
3872
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
没错,这是另外一个很好的例子,
28:34
especially特别 because it's so much easier更轻松
552
1702494
2229
特别是因为现在移民
28:36
to migrate迁移 today今天
553
1704747
1831
比中世纪和古代更为简单。
28:38
than it was in the Middle中间 Ages时代
or in ancient times.
554
1706602
3689
28:42
CACA: Yuval尤瓦, there's a belief信仰
among其中 many许多 technologists技术专家, certainly当然,
555
1710315
4463
克里斯·安德森:
尤瓦尔,很多科技人相信一件事情,
28:46
that political政治 concerns关注
are kind of overblown夸大,
556
1714802
2351
政治有点被夸张了,
28:49
that actually其实, political政治 leaders领导者
don't have that much influence影响
557
1717177
3697
事实上,政治领导人
在世界上没有那么大的影响力,
28:52
in the world世界,
558
1720898
1166
28:54
that the real真实 determination决心 of humanity人性
at this point is by science科学,
559
1722088
3969
现在真正决定人类的是科学、
28:58
by invention发明, by companies公司,
560
1726081
1446
发明、公司、
28:59
by many许多 things
other than political政治 leaders领导者,
561
1727551
4392
除政治领导人外的很多东西,
29:03
and it's actually其实 very hard
for leaders领导者 to do much,
562
1731967
2411
领导人做不了很多事情,
29:06
so we're actually其实 worrying令人担忧
about nothing here.
563
1734402
2358
所以我们是白担心。
29:10
YNHYNH: Well, first, it should be emphasized强调
564
1738005
2236
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:首先,
29:12
that it's true真正 that political政治 leaders'领导人
ability能力 to do good is very limited有限,
565
1740265
4997
政治领导人做好事
的能力是非常有限的,
29:17
but their ability能力 to do harm危害 is unlimited无限.
566
1745286
3043
但是他们做坏事的能力是没有限制的。
29:20
There is a basic基本 imbalance失调 here.
567
1748353
2600
这是基本的不平衡。
29:22
You can still press the button按键
and blow打击 everybody每个人 up.
568
1750977
3568
你依旧可以按下按钮,炸掉所有人。
29:26
You have that kind of ability能力.
569
1754569
1586
你可以有这样的能力。
29:28
But if you want, for example,
to reduce减少 inequality不等式,
570
1756179
3569
但是如果你想,比如,减轻不平等现象,
29:31
that's very, very difficult.
571
1759772
1877
是非常,非常困难的。
29:33
But to start开始 a war战争,
572
1761673
1396
但是开始一场战争,
29:35
you can still do so very easily容易.
573
1763093
1851
你依旧可以轻而易举的做到。
29:36
So there is a built-in内建的 imbalance失调
in the political政治 system系统 today今天
574
1764968
3592
所以现在的政治系统有
一个根深蒂固的不平衡,
29:40
which哪一个 is very frustrating泄气,
575
1768584
1611
这挺令人沮丧的,
29:42
where you cannot不能 do a lot of good
but you can still do a lot of harm危害.
576
1770219
4901
你不能做很多好事,
但你依旧可以造成很多伤害。
29:47
And this makes品牌 the political政治 system系统
still a very big concern关心.
577
1775144
4144
这依旧是政治系统很大的隐患。
29:51
CACA: So as you look at
what's happening事件 today今天,
578
1779812
2151
克里斯·安德森:
所以当你看看现在发生的事情,
29:53
and putting your historian's历史学家 hat帽子 on,
579
1781987
1754
从一个历史学家的角度,
29:55
do you look back in history历史 at moments瞬间
when things were going just fine
580
1783765
3526
历史上有一切都很好,
29:59
and an individual个人 leader领导 really took
the world世界 or their country国家 backwards向后?
581
1787315
5333
然后一个领导人使世界
和他的国家倒退的时候吗?
30:05
YNHYNH: There are quite相当 a few少数 examples例子,
582
1793307
2629
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:有几个例子,
30:07
but I should emphasize注重,
it's never an individual个人 leader领导.
583
1795960
2819
但是我应该强调,
从来都不只是一个领导人,
30:10
I mean, somebody put him there,
584
1798803
1634
有人把他推上台的,
30:12
and somebody allowed允许 him
to continue继续 to be there.
585
1800461
3283
有人允许他继续待在台上。
30:15
So it's never really just the fault故障
of a single individual个人.
586
1803768
4083
所以并不是单一一个人的错,
30:19
There are a lot of people
behind背后 every一切 such这样 individual个人.
587
1807875
4613
有很多人在这样的人身后。
30:24
CACA: Can we have the microphone麦克风
here, please, to Andrew安德鲁?
588
1812512
3478
克里斯·安德森:
我们能把麦克风给安德鲁吗?
30:31
Andrew安德鲁 Solomon所罗门: You've talked a lot
about the global全球 versus the national国民,
589
1819132
3564
安德鲁·索罗门:
你谈了很多关于世界和国家的事情,
30:34
but increasingly日益, it seems似乎 to me,
590
1822720
1626
但是在我看来,
30:36
the world世界 situation情况
is in the hands of identity身分 groups.
591
1824370
2643
世界还是掌握在一群一群的人手中的。
30:39
We look at people within the United联合的 States状态
592
1827037
2310
看看在美国被ISIS招募的人,
30:41
who have been recruited应征 by ISIS伊斯兰国.
593
1829371
1627
30:43
We look at these other groups
which哪一个 have formed形成
594
1831022
2191
还有其他的组群,
30:45
which哪一个 go outside of national国民 bounds界限
595
1833237
1962
不受国家的限制,
30:47
but still represent代表
significant重大 authorities当局.
596
1835223
2161
但是依旧代表着重要的权力。
30:49
How are they to be integrated集成
into the system系统,
597
1837408
2428
他们该如何被融入系统?
30:51
and how is a diverse多种 set of identities身份
to be made制作 coherent相干
598
1839860
3713
以及如何使一个多样背景的设定团结,
30:55
under either national国民
or global全球 leadership领导?
599
1843597
2338
在国家或者世界领导下?
30:59
YNHYNH: Well, the problem问题
of such这样 diverse多种 identities身份
600
1847380
3221
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:多样背景的问题
31:02
is a problem问题 from nationalism民族主义 as well.
601
1850625
2056
在国家主义里也有。
31:05
Nationalism民族主义 believes相信
in a single, monolithic单片 identity身分,
602
1853229
4355
国家主义偏爱单一背景,
31:09
and exclusive独家 or at least最小
more extreme极端 versions版本 of nationalism民族主义
603
1857608
4116
更极端的国家主义
31:13
believe in an exclusive独家 loyalty忠诚
to a single identity身分.
604
1861748
3569
偏爱对单一背景的唯一忠诚。
31:17
And therefore因此, nationalism民族主义 has had
a lot of problems问题
605
1865341
2916
因此,国家主义有了很多问题,
31:20
with people wanting希望 to divide划分
their identities身份
606
1868281
2876
对想要在不同组群中
31:23
between之间 various各个 groups.
607
1871181
2063
有多样背景的人。
31:25
So it's not just a problem问题, say,
for a global全球 vision视力.
608
1873268
4875
所以这仅是全球背景下的一个问题,
31:30
And I think, again, history历史 shows节目
609
1878540
3852
我认为,历史表明
31:34
that you shouldn't不能 necessarily一定
think in such这样 exclusive独家 terms条款.
610
1882416
6127
你不能片面的思考。
31:40
If you think that there is just
a single identity身分 for a person,
611
1888567
3408
若果你认为每个人是单一背景的话,
31:43
"I am just X, that's it, I can't be
several一些 things, I can be just that,"
612
1891999
5040
“我只是X,我不能是其他东西。”
31:49
that's the start开始 of the problem问题.
613
1897063
2096
这就是问题的开始。
31:51
You have religions宗教, you have nations国家
614
1899183
2788
你有宗教信仰,你有国籍,
31:53
that sometimes有时 demand需求 exclusive独家 loyalty忠诚,
615
1901995
3182
可能需要唯一忠诚,
31:57
but it's not the only option选项.
616
1905201
1731
但是这不是唯一的选择。
31:58
There are many许多 religions宗教 and many许多 nations国家
617
1906956
2382
有很多宗教信仰和很多国家,
32:01
that enable启用 you to have
diverse多种 identities身份 at the same相同 time.
618
1909362
3878
能够让你同时有非常多样的背景。
32:05
CACA: But is one explanation说明
of what's happened发生 in the last year
619
1913264
4357
克里斯·安德森:
去年发生的事情的解释
32:09
that a group of people have got
fed美联储 up with, if you like,
620
1917645
5180
是一群人忍受不住了,
32:14
the liberal自由主义的 elites精英,
for want of a better term术语,
621
1922849
3167
自由主义精英,
32:18
obsessing沉迷 over many许多, many许多 different不同
identities身份 and them feeling感觉,
622
1926040
4373
痴迷于很多很多不同的背景,
然后他们感觉,
32:22
"But what about my identity身分?
I am being存在 completely全然 ignored忽视 here.
623
1930437
3859
“但是我的身份呢?我被完全遗忘了。
32:26
And by the way, I thought
I was the majority多数"?
624
1934320
2974
似乎我觉得我是多数人?”
32:29
And that that's actually其实
sparked引发 a lot of the anger愤怒.
625
1937318
2981
然而这只是诸多愤怒的冰山一角。
32:32
YNHYNH: Yeah. Identity身分 is always problematic问题,
626
1940918
3145
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
身份总会带来很多问题,
32:36
because identity身分 is always based基于
on fictional虚构 stories故事
627
1944087
4310
因为身份总是基于虚构的故事,
32:40
that sooner or later后来 collide碰撞 with reality现实.
628
1948421
2889
迟早会和现实冲突。
32:43
Almost几乎 all identities身份,
629
1951890
1518
几乎所有的身份,
32:45
I mean, beyond the level水平
of the basic基本 community社区
630
1953432
3411
高于基本群体的级别,
32:48
of a few少数 dozen people,
631
1956867
1469
和十几个人的级别,
32:50
are based基于 on a fictional虚构 story故事.
632
1958360
1929
都是基于虚构的故事。
32:52
They are not the truth真相.
633
1960313
1641
他们都不是事实。
32:53
They are not the reality现实.
634
1961978
1315
他们都不是真的。
32:55
It's just a story故事 that people invent发明
and tell one another另一个
635
1963317
3094
这只是人们发明出来
32:58
and start开始 believing相信.
636
1966435
1491
互相告诉然后相信的故事。
32:59
And therefore因此 all identities身份
are extremely非常 unstable不稳定.
637
1967950
5320
所以所有的身份都是不稳定的。
33:05
They are not a biological生物 reality现实.
638
1973294
2527
他们不是生物学上的事实。
33:07
Sometimes有时 nationalists民族主义者, for example,
639
1975845
2006
有的时候国家主义者,
33:09
think that the nation国家
is a biological生物 entity实体.
640
1977875
2927
认为国家是一个生物学上的物体。
33:12
It's made制作 of the combination组合
of soil and blood血液,
641
1980826
3613
由土壤和血液组成的,
33:16
creates创建 the nation国家.
642
1984463
1702
形成了国家。
33:18
But this is just a fictional虚构 story故事.
643
1986189
3092
但是这只是一个虚构的故事。
33:21
CACA: Soil and blood血液
kind of makes品牌 a gooey感伤的 mess食堂.
644
1989305
2563
克里斯·安德森:
土壤和血液和在一起是一团糟。
33:23
(Laughter笑声)
645
1991892
1822
(笑声)
33:25
YNHYNH: It does, and also
it messes混乱 with your mind心神
646
1993738
3024
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
没错,而且它还会搞乱你的头脑,
33:28
when you think too much
that I am a combination组合 of soil and blood血液.
647
1996786
4784
当你认为你是土壤和血液的组合过多。
33:33
If you look from a biological生物 perspective透视,
648
2001594
2867
如果从生物学的角度来看,
33:36
obviously明显 none没有 of the nations国家
that exist存在 today今天
649
2004485
3478
显而易见现在的国家没有一个
33:39
existed存在 5,000 years年份 ago.
650
2007987
2243
在5千年前存在。
33:42
Homo智人 sapiens智人 is a social社会 animal动物,
that's for sure.
651
2010254
3858
智人无疑是一个社交的动物。
33:46
But for millions百万 of years年份,
652
2014136
2427
但是百万年来,
33:48
Homo智人 sapiens智人 and our hominid原始人 ancestors祖先
lived生活 in small communities社区
653
2016587
4639
智人和我们的人类祖先
33:53
of a few少数 dozen individuals个人.
654
2021250
2329
生活在几十个个体的小群体内。
33:55
Everybody每个人 knew知道 everybody每个人 else其他.
655
2023603
2127
所有人都知道所有人。
33:57
Whereas modern现代 nations国家
are imagined想象 communities社区,
656
2025754
4021
但是现在国家是虚构的群体,
34:01
in the sense that I don't even know
all these people.
657
2029799
2551
我并不认识这些人。
34:04
I come from a relatively相对
small nation国家, Israel以色列,
658
2032374
2848
我来自一个相对小的国家,以色列,
34:07
and of eight million百万 Israelis以色列人,
659
2035246
2143
八百万以色列人中,
34:09
I never met会见 most of them.
660
2037413
1990
我从来没有见过绝大多数人。
34:11
I will never meet遇到 most of them.
661
2039427
2308
我也不会见到绝大多数人。
34:13
They basically基本上 exist存在 here.
662
2041759
2562
他们只是简单地存在在这里。
34:16
CACA: But in terms条款 of this identity身分,
663
2044345
2749
克里斯·安德森:这样的身份,
34:19
this group who feel left out
and perhaps也许 have work taken采取 away,
664
2047118
5437
这群人感觉被抛弃,可能被抢走工作,
34:24
I mean, in "Homo智人 Deus杀出重围,"
665
2052579
2294
在《未来简史》里,
34:26
you actually其实 speak说话 of this group
in one sense expanding扩大,
666
2054897
3111
你谈到这样的组群在扩大,
34:30
that so many许多 people
may可能 have their jobs工作 taken采取 away
667
2058032
3622
太多人可能会被科技
34:33
by technology技术 in some way
that we could end结束 up with
668
2061678
4380
夺走工作,
34:38
a really large -- I think you call it
a "useless无用 class" --
669
2066082
3171
然后我们可能会有一个
你称之为的很大的“无用阶层”,
34:41
a class where traditionally传统,
670
2069277
2103
一个传统上存在,
34:43
as viewed观看 by the economy经济,
these people have no use.
671
2071404
2731
经济上无用的阶层。
34:46
YNHYNH: Yes.
672
2074159
1198
尤瓦尔·赫拉利没错。
34:47
CACA: How likely容易 a possibility可能性 is that?
673
2075381
2931
克里斯·安德森:有多大可能会发生?
34:50
Is that something
we should be terrified about?
674
2078336
2744
我们该为此担心吗?
34:53
And can we address地址 it in any way?
675
2081104
2659
以及我们能够解决这个吗?
34:55
YNHYNH: We should think about it
very carefully小心.
676
2083787
2247
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
我们应该非常仔细的思考这件事。
34:58
I mean, nobody没有人 really knows知道
what the job工作 market市场 will look like
677
2086058
2971
没人真的知道2040、2050年
35:01
in 2040, 2050.
678
2089053
1690
的工作市场是怎样的。
35:02
There is a chance机会
many许多 new jobs工作 will appear出现,
679
2090767
2708
有可能新的工作会出现,
35:05
but it's not certain某些.
680
2093499
1754
但并不是绝对。
35:07
And even if new jobs工作 do appear出现,
681
2095277
2211
即使新的工作真的出现了,
35:09
it won't惯于 necessarily一定 be easy简单
682
2097512
1984
一个被自动驾驶汽车
抢走工作的50岁的卡车司机
35:11
for a 50-year-年 old unemployed失业的 truck卡车 driver司机
683
2099520
2999
的生活也不一定简单。
35:14
made制作 unemployed失业的 by self-driving自驾车 vehicles汽车,
684
2102543
3033
35:17
it won't惯于 be easy简单
for an unemployed失业的 truck卡车 driver司机
685
2105600
3653
一个失业卡车司机
35:21
to reinvent重塑 himself他自己 or herself她自己
as a designer设计师 of virtual虚拟 worlds世界.
686
2109277
4786
把自己重塑成一个
虚拟世界的设计者是很难的。
35:26
Previously先前, if you look at the trajectory弹道
of the industrial产业 revolution革命,
687
2114087
4182
之前,工业革命的发展史,
35:30
when machines replaced更换 humans人类
in one type类型 of work,
688
2118293
4157
当在某个产业机器代替人力,
35:34
the solution usually平时 came来了
from low-skill低技能 work
689
2122474
4281
解决方式通常是
在新的生产中低技术的工作。
35:38
in new lines线 of business商业.
690
2126779
2588
35:41
So you didn't need any more
agricultural农业的 workers工人,
691
2129391
3402
所以你不需要更多的农民,
35:44
so people moved移动 to working加工
in low-skill低技能 industrial产业 jobs工作,
692
2132817
5414
人们转向低技术工业的工作,
35:50
and when this was taken采取 away
by more and more machines,
693
2138255
3469
当这些工作被
越来越多的机器抢走的时候,
35:53
people moved移动 to low-skill低技能 service服务 jobs工作.
694
2141748
2970
人们转移到低技术的服务业。
35:56
Now, when people say there will
be new jobs工作 in the future未来,
695
2144742
3360
当人们说未来会有新的职业,
36:00
that humans人类 can do better than AIAI,
696
2148126
2429
那些职业人类会比人工智能做的更好,
36:02
that humans人类 can do better than robots机器人,
697
2150579
1830
那些职业人类能比机器人做的更好,
36:04
they usually平时 think about high-skill高技能 jobs工作,
698
2152433
2640
他们说的其实是高技术的工作,
36:07
like software软件 engineers工程师
designing设计 virtual虚拟 worlds世界.
699
2155097
3871
像软件工程师设计虚拟世界。
36:10
Now, I don't see how
an unemployed失业的 cashier出纳员 from Wal-Mart沃尔玛
700
2158992
5394
我不认为一个失业沃尔玛收银员
36:16
reinvents重塑 herself她自己 or himself他自己 at 50
as a designer设计师 of virtual虚拟 worlds世界,
701
2164410
4623
能够在50岁把自己
变成一个虚拟世界的设计者,
36:21
and certainly当然 I don't see
702
2169057
1471
我更不认为
36:22
how the millions百万 of unemployed失业的
Bangladeshi孟加拉国 textile纺织品 workers工人
703
2170552
3467
孟加拉国的百万失业纺织业工人
36:26
will be able能够 to do that.
704
2174043
1611
能够做到这个。
36:27
I mean, if they are going to do it,
705
2175678
1720
如果他们真的想做到,
36:29
we need to start开始 teaching教学
the Bangladeshis孟加拉 today今天
706
2177422
3356
那我们现在就要开始教孟加拉国人
36:32
how to be software软件 designers设计师,
707
2180802
1754
如何成为一个软件工程师,
36:34
and we are not doing it.
708
2182580
1243
但是我们并没有在做这件事。
36:35
So what will they do in 20 years年份?
709
2183847
2491
所以他们在20年内会做什么?
36:38
CACA: So it feels感觉 like you're really
highlighting突出 a question
710
2186362
3914
克里斯·安德森:
我感觉你很重视一个问题,
36:42
that's really been bugging窃听 me
the last few少数 months个月 more and more.
711
2190300
4183
其实这前几个月就一直困扰着我,
36:46
It's almost几乎 a hard question
to ask in public上市,
712
2194507
2855
这个问题不好在公众问,
36:49
but if any mind心神 has some wisdom智慧
to offer提供 in it, maybe it's yours你的,
713
2197386
3391
但是如果任何人能够有智慧回答,
那就是你了,
36:52
so I'm going to ask you:
714
2200801
1545
所以问题是:
36:54
What are humans人类 for?
715
2202370
1878
人类存在的目的是什么?
36:57
YNHYNH: As far as we know, for nothing.
716
2205232
1934
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
据我们现在所知,没有任何目的。
36:59
(Laughter笑声)
717
2207190
1712
(笑声)
37:00
I mean, there is no great cosmic宇宙的 drama戏剧,
some great cosmic宇宙的 plan计划,
718
2208926
5526
并没有什么宏大的宇宙戏剧,
或者宏大的宇宙计划,
37:06
that we have a role角色 to play in.
719
2214476
2841
人类拥有一个角色的。
37:09
And we just need to discover发现
what our role角色 is
720
2217341
3024
我们只需要发现我们的角色,
37:12
and then play it to the best最好
of our ability能力.
721
2220389
2992
然后尽可能做好我们的角色。
37:15
This has been the story故事 of all religions宗教
and ideologies意识形态 and so forth向前,
722
2223405
4978
这一直是所有宗教和价值观的故事,
37:20
but as a scientist科学家, the best最好 I can say
is this is not true真正.
723
2228407
3478
但是作为一个科学家,
我能说的是这不是真的。
37:23
There is no universal普遍 drama戏剧
with a role角色 in it for Homo智人 sapiens智人.
724
2231909
5358
并没有什么智人参加的宇宙戏剧。
37:29
So --
725
2237291
1681
所以……
37:30
CACA: I'm going to push back on you
just for a minute分钟,
726
2238996
2493
克里斯·安德森:我要打断你一下,
37:33
just from your own拥有 book,
727
2241513
1194
在你的书里,
37:34
because in "Homo智人 Deus杀出重围,"
728
2242731
1324
因为在《未来简史》里,
37:36
you give really one of the most coherent相干
and understandable可理解 accounts账户
729
2244079
5059
你做出了条理清楚和易于理解的解释,
37:41
about sentience知觉, about consciousness意识,
730
2249162
2232
关于知觉,关于意识,
37:43
and that unique独特 sort分类 of human人的 skill技能.
731
2251418
2958
以及那种人类特别的能力。
37:46
You point out that it's different不同
from intelligence情报,
732
2254400
2493
你指出了和智力的区别,
37:48
the intelligence情报
that we're building建造 in machines,
733
2256917
2334
那种我们建造机器的智力,
37:51
and that there's actually其实 a lot
of mystery神秘 around it.
734
2259275
3658
并没有什么神秘之处。
37:54
How can you be sure there's no purpose目的
735
2262957
3377
你是怎么知道人类没有目的,
37:58
when we don't even understand理解
what this sentience知觉 thing is?
736
2266358
4051
如果我们还无法理解知觉是什么?
38:02
I mean, in your own拥有 thinking思维,
isn't there a chance机会
737
2270433
2576
以你的理解,有没有可能
38:05
that what humans人类 are for
is to be the universe's宇宙 sentient有情 things,
738
2273033
4312
人类的目的是成为宇宙的知觉,
38:09
to be the centers中心 of joy喜悦 and love
and happiness幸福 and hope希望?
739
2277369
3423
成为快乐、爱情和喜悦的中心呢?
38:12
And maybe we can build建立 machines
that actually其实 help amplify放大 that,
740
2280816
3035
可能我们能够建造放大那些东西的机器,
38:15
even if they're not going to become成为
sentient有情 themselves他们自己?
741
2283875
2664
即使它们不会获得感知?
38:18
Is that crazy?
742
2286563
1151
这听起来很疯狂吗?
38:19
I kind of found发现 myself hoping希望 that,
reading your book.
743
2287738
3483
读你的书,我似乎有点渴望这个。
38:23
YNHYNH: Well, I certainly当然 think that the most
interesting有趣 question today今天 in science科学
744
2291245
3857
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
我相信现在科学最有意思的问题是
38:27
is the question
of consciousness意识 and the mind心神.
745
2295126
2423
关于意识和头脑的。
38:29
We are getting得到 better and better
in understanding理解 the brain
746
2297573
3498
我们能够越来越好的理解
38:33
and intelligence情报,
747
2301095
1260
大脑和智力,
38:34
but we are not getting得到 much better
748
2302379
2537
但是我们并没有越来越好的
38:36
in understanding理解 the mind心神
and consciousness意识.
749
2304940
2343
理解思维和意识。
38:39
People often经常 confuse迷惑 intelligence情报
and consciousness意识,
750
2307307
3362
人们经常把智力和意识混为一谈,
38:42
especially特别 in places地方 like Silicon Valley,
751
2310693
2299
特别是像硅谷这样的地方,
38:45
which哪一个 is understandable可理解,
because in humans人类, they go together一起.
752
2313016
3757
这是可以理解的,
因为在人类身上,这两个是相似的。
38:48
I mean, intelligence情报 basically基本上
is the ability能力 to solve解决 problems问题.
753
2316797
3579
智力基本上就是解决问题的能力。
38:52
Consciousness意识 is the ability能力
to feel things,
754
2320400
2542
意识是感受事情的能力,
38:54
to feel joy喜悦 and sadness
and boredom无聊 and pain疼痛 and so forth向前.
755
2322966
5212
感受快乐、悲伤、无聊、痛苦等等。
39:00
In Homo智人 sapiens智人 and all other mammals哺乳动物
as well -- it's not unique独特 to humans人类 --
756
2328202
4039
智人和其他哺乳动物,不仅仅人类,
39:04
in all mammals哺乳动物 and birds鸟类
and some other animals动物,
757
2332265
2647
所有哺乳动物和鸟类及其他一些动物,
39:06
intelligence情报 and consciousness意识
go together一起.
758
2334936
2650
智力和意识很相似。
39:09
We often经常 solve解决 problems问题 by feeling感觉 things.
759
2337610
3578
我们经常通过感受事情来解决问题。
39:13
So we tend趋向 to confuse迷惑 them.
760
2341212
1493
所以我们更有可能会把它们混淆。
39:14
But they are different不同 things.
761
2342729
1465
但它们是不同的东西。
39:16
What's happening事件 today今天
in places地方 like Silicon Valley
762
2344218
3088
现在在像硅谷一样的地方发生的事情
39:19
is that we are creating创建
artificial人造 intelligence情报
763
2347330
3626
是我们在创造人工智能,
39:22
but not artificial人造 consciousness意识.
764
2350980
1822
但是不是人工意识。
39:24
There has been an amazing惊人 development发展
in computer电脑 intelligence情报
765
2352826
3380
过去的50年里,
39:28
over the last 50 years年份,
766
2356230
1562
电脑智能有非常卓越的发展,
39:29
and exactly究竟 zero development发展
in computer电脑 consciousness意识,
767
2357816
4201
但是电脑意识完全没有进步,
39:34
and there is no indication迹象 that computers电脑
are going to become成为 conscious意识
768
2362041
3686
也没有现象表明电脑
39:37
anytime任何时候 soon不久.
769
2365751
2531
在不远的将来会取得意识。
39:40
So first of all, if there is
some cosmic宇宙的 role角色 for consciousness意识,
770
2368306
5650
所以,第一,
意识在宇宙中扮演的角色,
39:45
it's not unique独特 to Homo智人 sapiens智人.
771
2373980
2130
它不是智人特有的。
39:48
Cows奶牛 are conscious意识, pigs are conscious意识,
772
2376134
2319
牛是有意识的,猪是有意识的,
39:50
chimpanzees黑猩猩 are conscious意识,
chickens are conscious意识,
773
2378477
2833
猩猩是有意识的,鸡是有意识的,
39:53
so if we go that way, first of all,
we need to broaden扩大 our horizons视野
774
2381334
3853
所以如果我们想搞清楚我们的角色,
首先,我们要扩大我们的视野,
39:57
and remember记得 very clearly明确地 we are not
the only sentient有情 beings众生 on Earth地球,
775
2385211
4725
一定要记住我们不是
地球上唯一有意识的生物,
40:01
and when it comes to sentience知觉 --
776
2389960
1795
当谈到意识,
40:03
when it comes to intelligence情报,
there is good reason原因 to think
777
2391779
3312
当谈到智力,
40:07
we are the most intelligent智能
of the whole整个 bunch.
778
2395115
3296
我们有理由认为我们是整个生态系统中最聪明的。
40:10
But when it comes to sentience知觉,
779
2398435
2574
但是谈到意识时,
40:13
to say that humans人类 are more
sentient有情 than whales鲸鱼,
780
2401033
3158
说人类比鲸鱼更有意识,
40:16
or more sentient有情 than baboons狒狒
or more sentient有情 than cats,
781
2404215
4147
或者比狒狒,或者比猫更有意识,
40:20
I see no evidence证据 for that.
782
2408386
2294
我找不到证据。
40:22
So first step is, you go
in that direction方向, expand扩大.
783
2410704
3607
所以第一步是,
如果你想要搞清楚,扩大视野。
40:26
And then the second第二 question
of what is it for,
784
2414335
3982
第二个问题是意识的目的是什么?
40:30
I would reverse相反 it
785
2418341
1782
我要推翻这个问题,
40:32
and I would say that I don't think
sentience知觉 is for anything.
786
2420147
4236
我不认为意识有任何目的。
40:36
I think we don't need
to find our role角色 in the universe宇宙.
787
2424407
4172
我不认为我们需要
在宇宙中找到我们的角色。
40:40
The really important重要 thing
is to liberate解放 ourselves我们自己 from suffering痛苦.
788
2428603
5813
重要的事情是使我们不再痛苦。
40:46
What characterizes特征化 sentient有情 beings众生
789
2434440
2993
有意识的生物
40:49
in contrast对比 to robots机器人, to stones石头,
790
2437457
2720
和机器人、石头或者其他东西相比
40:52
to whatever随你,
791
2440201
1183
40:53
is that sentient有情 beings众生
suffer遭受, can suffer遭受,
792
2441408
3791
是有意识生物会感受到痛苦,
40:57
and what they should focus焦点 on
793
2445223
2340
而且他们应该关注的
40:59
is not finding发现 their place地点
in some mysterious神秘 cosmic宇宙的 drama戏剧.
794
2447587
4120
不是在什么神秘的
宇宙戏剧中找到他们的角色。
41:03
They should focus焦点 on understanding理解
what suffering痛苦 is,
795
2451731
3819
而应该关注痛苦是什么,
41:07
what causes原因 it and how
to be liberated解放 from it.
796
2455574
3359
什么造成了痛苦以及如何从中解脱。
41:11
CACA: I know this is a big issue问题 for you,
and that was very eloquent雄辩.
797
2459572
3477
克里斯·安德森:
我知道这对你是一个非常重要的问题。
41:15
We're going to have a blizzard暴风雪
of questions问题 from the audience听众 here,
798
2463073
3414
但是现场有很多的问题,
41:18
and maybe from FacebookFacebook的 as well,
799
2466511
1920
可能Facebook也是,
41:20
and maybe some comments注释 as well.
800
2468455
1673
可能还有一些评论。
41:22
So let's go quick.
801
2470152
1796
所以让我们开始吧。
41:23
There's one right here.
802
2471972
1430
这里就有一个问题。
41:27
Keep your hands held保持 up
at the back if you want the micMIC,
803
2475052
2809
如果你要麦克风,请保持手举高,
41:29
and we'll get it back to you.
804
2477885
1419
我们会递给你。
41:31
Question: In your work, you talk a lot
about the fictional虚构 stories故事
805
2479328
3119
问题:在你的工作里,
你谈论了很多关于
41:34
that we accept接受 as truth真相,
806
2482471
1344
我们当成现实的虚构故事,
41:35
and we live生活 our lives生活 by it.
807
2483839
1717
我们的生活基于这些故事。
41:37
As an individual个人, knowing会心 that,
808
2485580
2499
作为个人,知道这个,
41:40
how does it impact碰撞 the stories故事
that you choose选择 to live生活 your life,
809
2488103
3746
这如何影响你的人生。
41:43
and do you confuse迷惑 them
with the truth真相, like all of us?
810
2491873
3740
以及你会像我们一样把
这些故事和现实混在一起吗?
41:48
YNHYNH: I try not to.
811
2496246
1211
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:我尝试不要。
41:49
I mean, for me, maybe the most
important重要 question,
812
2497481
2768
对于我来说,最重要的问题,
41:52
both as a scientist科学家 and as a person,
813
2500273
2478
作为一个科学家和一个人类,
41:54
is how to tell the difference区别
between之间 fiction小说 and reality现实,
814
2502775
3875
是如何分辨虚构和事实的区别,
41:58
because reality现实 is there.
815
2506674
2596
因为事实存在。
42:01
I'm not saying that everything is fiction小说.
816
2509294
2082
我并不是说所有的事情都是虚构的。
42:03
It's just very difficult for human人的 beings众生
to tell the difference区别
817
2511400
3052
只是对于人类,我们很难分辨
42:06
between之间 fiction小说 and reality现实,
818
2514476
1617
虚构和现实的区别,
42:08
and it has become成为 more and more difficult
as history历史 progressed进展,
819
2516117
4945
而且随着历史的发展,
这变得越来越困难,
42:13
because the fictions小说
that we have created创建 --
820
2521086
2451
因为我们创造的虚拟事物,
42:15
nations国家 and gods and money
and corporations公司 --
821
2523561
3168
国家、神、金钱和公司,
42:18
they now control控制 the world世界.
822
2526753
1510
它们现在控制着世界。
42:20
So just to even think,
823
2528287
1177
所以甚至思考
42:21
"Oh, this is just all fictional虚构 entities实体
that we've我们已经 created创建,"
824
2529488
3145
“哦,这只是我们创造的虚构的东西。”
42:24
is very difficult.
825
2532657
1447
是很困难的。
42:26
But reality现实 is there.
826
2534128
2280
但是事实依旧存在。
42:29
For me the best最好 ...
827
2537043
2005
对于我来说,
42:31
There are several一些 tests测试
828
2539072
2123
有几个能够分辨虚构和现实的方法。
42:33
to tell the difference区别
between之间 fiction小说 and reality现实.
829
2541219
2770
42:36
The simplest简单 one, the best最好 one
that I can say in short,
830
2544013
3426
最简单的,最好用的,
我能够简而言之的,
42:39
is the test测试 of suffering痛苦.
831
2547463
1581
是痛苦。
42:41
If it can suffer遭受, it's real真实.
832
2549068
1553
如果它能够感受痛苦,它是真的。
42:43
If it can't suffer遭受, it's not real真实.
833
2551192
1694
如果它不能感受痛苦,它不是真的。
42:44
A nation国家 cannot不能 suffer遭受.
834
2552910
1465
一个国家无法感受痛苦。
42:46
That's very, very clear明确.
835
2554399
1570
这非常非常显而易见。
42:47
Even if a nation国家 loses失去 a war战争,
836
2555993
1938
即使一个国家输了一场战争,
42:49
we say, "Germany德国 suffered遭遇 a defeat打败
in the First World世界 War战争,"
837
2557955
4065
我们说:
“德国因为一战的失败而痛苦。”
42:54
it's a metaphor隐喻.
838
2562044
1165
这是一个比喻。
42:55
Germany德国 cannot不能 suffer遭受.
Germany德国 has no mind心神.
839
2563233
2557
德国无法感受痛苦,德国没有意识。
42:57
Germany德国 has no consciousness意识.
840
2565814
1653
德国没有知觉。
42:59
Germans德国 can suffer遭受, yes,
but Germany德国 cannot不能.
841
2567491
3658
德国人能够感受痛苦,
没错,但是德国不可以。
43:03
Similarly同样, when a bank银行 goes bust胸围,
842
2571173
2969
相似的是,当一个银行倒闭,
43:06
the bank银行 cannot不能 suffer遭受.
843
2574166
1771
那个银行无法感受痛苦。
43:07
When the dollar美元 loses失去 its value,
the dollar美元 doesn't suffer遭受.
844
2575961
3391
当美元的价值降低,
美元无法感受痛苦。
43:11
People can suffer遭受. Animals动物 can suffer遭受.
845
2579376
2250
人能够感受痛苦,
美国人能够感受痛苦。
43:13
This is real真实.
846
2581650
1156
这是真的。
43:14
So I would start开始, if you
really want to see reality现实,
847
2582830
4529
所以如果你真的想看到现实,
43:19
I would go through通过 the door of suffering痛苦.
848
2587383
2064
我会测试其能否感受痛苦。
43:21
If you can really understand理解
what suffering痛苦 is,
849
2589471
2954
如果你真的能够理解什么是痛苦,
43:24
this will give you also the key
850
2592449
2223
这也会让你了解什么是现实。
43:26
to understand理解 what reality现实 is.
851
2594696
2017
43:28
CACA: There's a FacebookFacebook的 question
here that connects所连接 to this,
852
2596737
2783

Facebook上有一个问题,
43:31
from someone有人 around the world世界
in a language语言 that I cannot不能 read.
853
2599544
2977
从看不懂的语言的人。
43:34
YNHYNH: Oh, it's Hebrew希伯来语.
CACA: Hebrew希伯来语. There you go.
854
2602545
2217
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:哦这是希伯来语。
克里斯·安德森:噢,希伯来语。
43:36
(Laughter笑声)
855
2604786
1062
(笑声)
43:37
Can you read the name名称?
856
2605872
1164
你能读这个名字吗?
43:39
YNHYNH: [??]
857
2607060
1875
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:……
43:40
CACA: Well, thank you for writing写作 in.
858
2608959
1844
克里斯·安德森:谢谢你的问题,
43:42
The question is: "Is the post-truth后的真相 era时代
really a brand-new全新的 era时代,
859
2610827
4555
问题是:“真相后时期
真的是一个全新的时期,
43:47
or just another另一个 climax高潮 or moment时刻
in a never-ending没完没了 trend趋势?
860
2615406
4387
还是另一个历史长河的时刻?”
43:52
YNHYNH: Personally亲自, I don't connect
with this idea理念 of post-truth后的真相.
861
2620701
3329
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:个人所见,
我不同意“真相后”这个概念。
43:56
My basic基本 reaction反应 as a historian历史学家 is:
862
2624054
2708
我作为历史学家的反应是,
43:58
If this is the era时代 of post-truth后的真相,
when the hell地狱 was the era时代 of truth真相?
863
2626786
3895
如果这是真相后的时期,
真相的时期是什么时候?
44:02
CACA: Right.
864
2630705
1251
克里斯·安德森:没错。
44:03
(Laughter笑声)
865
2631980
1320
(笑声)
44:05
YNHYNH: Was it the 1980s, the 1950s,
the Middle中间 Ages时代?
866
2633324
4683
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:是20世纪80年代,
50年代还是中世纪时期?
44:10
I mean, we have always lived生活
in an era时代, in a way, of post-truth后的真相.
867
2638031
4392
我们一直都生活在某种真相后的时期。
44:14
CACA: But I'd push back on that,
868
2642883
2311
克里斯·安德森:我要打断一下,
44:17
because I think what people
are talking about
869
2645218
2670
因为我认为人们谈论的
44:19
is that there was a world世界
where you had fewer journalistic新闻 outlets网点,
870
2647912
6960
是有更少的记者报道,
44:26
where there were traditions传统,
that things were fact-checked事实核对.
871
2654896
3648
有被验真过的现实的世界,
44:30
It was incorporated合并 into the charter宪章
of those organizations组织
872
2658568
3945
被那些注重真实的机构检查过的世界。
44:34
that the truth真相 mattered要紧.
873
2662537
2167
44:36
So if you believe in a reality现实,
874
2664728
1749
所以如果你相信一个事实,
44:38
then what you write is information信息.
875
2666501
2223
你所写的就是信息。
44:40
There was a belief信仰 that that information信息
should connect to reality现实 in a real真实 way,
876
2668748
3821
有人认为信息应该真正与现实相连,
44:44
and if you wrote a headline标题,
it was a serious严重, earnest认真 attempt尝试
877
2672593
2961
如果你写一个头条,
这是一个很严肃重要的
44:47
to reflect反映 something
that had actually其实 happened发生.
878
2675578
2303
反映现实的事情。
44:49
And people didn't always get it right.
879
2677905
1851
然而有些人不这么认为。
44:51
But I think the concern关心 now is you've got
880
2679780
2009
但是我认为担心是
44:53
a technological技术性 system系统
that's incredibly令人难以置信 powerful强大
881
2681813
2318
现在的科技非常强大
44:56
that, for a while at least最小,
massively大规模 amplified放大 anything
882
2684155
4170
在一段时间下,能够放大所有的事物,
45:00
with no attention注意 paid支付 to whether是否
it connected连接的 to reality现实,
883
2688349
2780
不管其与现实的联系,
45:03
only to whether是否 it connected连接的
to clicks点击 and attention注意,
884
2691153
3154
只管点击量和吸引注意,
45:06
and that that was arguably按理说 toxic有毒的.
885
2694331
1616
这是非常有害的。
45:07
That's a reasonable合理 concern关心, isn't it?
886
2695971
2436
这会导致一个很正常的担忧,对吧?
45:10
YNHYNH: Yeah, it is. I mean,
the technology技术 changes变化,
887
2698431
2286
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
没错,随着科技发展,
45:12
and it's now easier更轻松 to disseminate传播
both truth真相 and fiction小说 and falsehood谬误.
888
2700741
5228
现在传播现实、虚构和虚假更简单了。
45:17
It goes both ways方法.
889
2705993
2003
现实和虚构的都有。
45:20
It's also much easier更轻松, though虽然, to spread传播
the truth真相 than it was ever before.
890
2708020
4579
宣传现实都比以前简单了非常多。
45:24
But I don't think there
is anything essentially实质上 new
891
2712623
3685
但是我不认为有什么非常新的东西
45:28
about this disseminating传播
fictions小说 and errors错误.
892
2716332
4720
关于传播虚构和虚假信息。
45:33
There is nothing that -- I don't know --
Joseph约瑟夫 Goebbels戈培尔, didn't know
893
2721076
4034
关于虚假信息和“真实后”,
45:37
about all this idea理念 of fake
news新闻 and post-truth后的真相.
894
2725134
5439
约瑟夫·戈培尔也都知道。
45:42
He famously著名 said that if you repeat重复
a lie谎言 often经常 enough足够,
895
2730597
3718
他经常说如果你重复一个谎言,
45:46
people will think it's the truth真相,
896
2734339
1821
人们为认为那是事实,
45:48
and the bigger the lie谎言, the better,
897
2736184
2356
谎越大越好,
45:50
because people won't惯于 even think
that something so big can be a lie谎言.
898
2738564
6023
因为人们甚至都不认为
这么夸张的事情是一个谎言。
45:56
I think that fake news新闻
has been with us for thousands数千 of years年份.
899
2744611
5658
我认为虚假新闻已经存在上千年了。
46:02
Just think of the Bible圣经.
900
2750293
1901
就像圣经。
46:04
(Laughter笑声)
901
2752218
1387
(笑声)
46:05
CACA: But there is a concern关心
902
2753629
1287
克里斯·安德森:但是有人担心
46:06
that the fake news新闻 is associated相关
with tyrannical强横 regimes制度,
903
2754940
4017
虚假新闻和专制政权有关,
46:10
and when you see an uprise in fake news新闻
904
2758981
2577
当虚假新闻上升的时候,
46:13
that is a canary金丝雀 in the coal煤炭 mine
that there may可能 be dark黑暗 times coming未来.
905
2761582
4722
那是一个危险信号,
黑暗的时代可能会到来。
46:20
YNHYNH: Yeah. I mean, the intentional故意的 use
of fake news新闻 is a disturbing烦扰的 sign标志.
906
2768124
6962
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:没错,国际上
虚假新闻的使用是很令人不安的。
46:27
But I'm not saying that it's not bad,
I'm just saying that it's not new.
907
2775812
4581
但是我不是说这不好。
我只是说这不是什么新鲜的东西。
46:32
CACA: There's a lot of interest利益
on FacebookFacebook的 on this question
908
2780820
2754
克里斯·安德森:
在Facebook上对这个问题有很多关注,
46:35
about global全球 governance治理
versus nationalism民族主义.
909
2783598
5000
关于世界政府和国家主义。
46:41
Question here from Phil菲尔 Dennis丹尼斯:
910
2789292
1508
来自菲利斯·丹尼斯的问题:
46:42
"How do we get people, governments政府,
to relinquish放弃 power功率?
911
2790824
3496
“我们如何让人们,让政府放弃权利?
46:46
Is that -- is that --
actually其实, the text文本 is so big
912
2794344
3915
这个含义太宏大了
46:50
I can't read the full充分 question.
913
2798283
1540
我看不到整个宏观的问题。
46:51
But is that a necessity必要性?
914
2799847
1539
但是这必要吗?
46:53
Is it going to take war战争 to get there?
915
2801410
2612
这需要战争才能实现吗?
46:56
Sorry Phil菲尔 -- I mangled错位 your question,
but I blame the text文本 right here.
916
2804046
3690
不好意思菲利斯,
我篡改了你的问题,但是我怪文字。
46:59
YNHYNH: One option选项
that some people talk about
917
2807760
2100
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
人们谈论的一个选择,
47:01
is that only a catastrophe灾难
can shake humankind人类
918
2809884
4739
只有灾难才能打动人类,
47:06
and open打开 the path路径 to a real真实 system系统
of global全球 governance治理,
919
2814647
5264
开始一个真正世界政府的系统,
47:11
and they say that we can't do it
before the catastrophe灾难,
920
2819935
4148
他们说我们无法在灾难前完成,
47:16
but we need to start开始
laying铺设 the foundations基金会
921
2824107
2801
但是我们需要开始打基础,
47:18
so that when the disaster灾害 strikes罢工,
922
2826932
2500
所以当灾难来袭时,
47:21
we can react应对 quickly很快.
923
2829456
2182
我们能够快速反应。
47:23
But people will just not have
the motivation动机 to do such这样 a thing
924
2831662
4000
但是人们在灾难前
47:27
before the disaster灾害 strikes罢工.
925
2835686
2012
是不会有动机去做这样的事情的。
47:29
Another另一个 thing that I would emphasize注重
926
2837722
2265
另外一件我要强调的事情
47:32
is that anybody任何人 who is really
interested有兴趣 in global全球 governance治理
927
2840011
5054
是任何真正相信世界政府的人,
47:37
should always make it very, very clear明确
928
2845089
2901
都要澄清
47:40
that it doesn't replace更换 or abolish废除
local本地 identities身份 and communities社区,
929
2848014
6584
它并不会取代或者取消地方户口或者社区,
47:46
that it should come both as --
930
2854622
2956
它们应该共同存在,
47:49
It should be part部分 of a single package.
931
2857602
3307
应该都是系统中的一部分。
47:52
CACA: I want to hear more on this,
932
2860933
3378
克里斯·安德森:我想多谈谈这个,
47:56
because the very words "global全球 governance治理"
933
2864335
3053
因为“世界政府”中的每一个字,
47:59
are almost几乎 the epitome缩影 of evil邪恶
in the mindset心态 of a lot of people
934
2867412
4589
是非主流右派很多人心目中
48:04
on the alt-rightALT-权 right now.
935
2872025
1326
恶魔的缩影。
48:05
It just seems似乎 scary害怕, remote远程, distant遥远,
and it has let them down,
936
2873375
2954
它看起来很吓人,很遥远,很未来,
它还让人们失望过,
48:08
and so globalists全球主义者,
global全球 governance治理 -- no, go away!
937
2876353
4116
所以全球主义者,世界政府,
不要,走开!
48:12
And many许多 view视图 the election选举
as the ultimate最终 poke in the eye
938
2880493
3682
很多人认为这次大选
48:16
to anyone任何人 who believes相信 in that.
939
2884199
1478
就是对任何相信这个的人的鼓励。
48:17
So how do we change更改 the narrative叙述
940
2885701
3551
我们如何改变叙述方式,
48:21
so that it doesn't seem似乎
so scary害怕 and remote远程?
941
2889276
2975
让它看起来不那么吓人和遥远?
48:24
Build建立 more on this idea理念
of it being存在 compatible兼容
942
2892275
2744
基于你说的
48:27
with local本地 identity身分, local本地 communities社区.
943
2895043
2621
和地方户口、地方社区的主意。
48:29
YNHYNH: Well, I think again we should start开始
944
2897688
2600
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:我认为我们应该
48:32
really with the biological生物 realities现实
945
2900312
3132
以智人的生物学现实开始。
48:35
of Homo智人 sapiens智人.
946
2903468
2011
48:37
And biology生物学 tells告诉 us two things
about Homo智人 sapiens智人
947
2905503
4118
生物学告诉我们两件关于智人的事情
48:41
which哪一个 are very relevant相应 to this issue问题:
948
2909645
2257
和这个问题非常有关:
48:43
first of all, that we are
completely全然 dependent依赖的
949
2911926
3029
第一,我们完全依赖于
48:46
on the ecological生态 system系统 around us,
950
2914979
2595
我们身边的生态系统,
48:49
and that today今天 we are talking
about a global全球 system系统.
951
2917598
3459
而且现在我们所谈论的是世界范围的系统。
48:53
You cannot不能 escape逃逸 that.
952
2921081
1357
你无法逃避这件事。
48:54
And at the same相同 time, biology生物学 tells告诉 us
about Homo智人 sapiens智人
953
2922462
3622
同时,生物学告诉我们,
48:58
that we are social社会 animals动物,
954
2926108
2247
智人是社交动物,
49:00
but that we are social社会
on a very, very local本地 level水平.
955
2928379
4637
但我们只在非常非常小的范围内社交。
49:05
It's just a simple简单 fact事实 of humanity人性
956
2933040
3545
这只是人类的简单事实,
49:08
that we cannot不能 have intimate亲密 familiarity熟悉
957
2936609
4797
我们无法和超过150个个体
49:13
with more than about 150 individuals个人.
958
2941430
3875
有亲密关系。
49:17
The size尺寸 of the natural自然 group,
959
2945329
4297
我们社交群体的大小,
49:21
the natural自然 community社区 of Homo智人 sapiens智人,
960
2949650
3102
智人社交群体的大小
49:24
is not more than 150 individuals个人,
961
2952776
3344
不超过150个个体,
49:28
and everything beyond that is really
based基于 on all kinds of imaginary假想 stories故事
962
2956144
6399
一切超过那个数字的,
都是基于某种虚构故事,
49:34
and large-scale大规模 institutions机构,
963
2962567
2047
和大型机构,
49:36
and I think that we can find a way,
964
2964638
4376
我认为我们能够找到一个方法,
49:41
again, based基于 on a biological生物
understanding理解 of our species种类,
965
2969038
4570
基于生物学上对我们的理解,
49:45
to weave编织 the two together一起
966
2973632
2082
为了它们编织在一起,
49:47
and to understand理解 that today今天
in the 21stST century世纪,
967
2975738
3076
为了了解21世纪的现在,
49:50
we need both the global全球 level水平
and the local本地 community社区.
968
2978838
5536
我们需要世界范围和地方社区。
49:56
And I would go even further进一步 than that
969
2984398
2017
我甚至会进一步说,
49:58
and say that it starts启动
with the body身体 itself本身.
970
2986439
3323
我们自己才是开始。
50:02
The feelings情怀 that people today今天 have
of alienation异化 and loneliness孤单
971
2990500
4342
现在人们感觉被疏远和寂寞,
50:06
and not finding发现 their place地点 in the world世界,
972
2994866
3216
和找不到在世界上的位置,
50:10
I would think that the chief首席 problem问题
is not global全球 capitalism资本主义.
973
2998106
5729
我会认为重要的问题不是世界资本主义。
50:16
The chief首席 problem问题 is that over
the last hundred years年份,
974
3004285
3026
重要的问题是过去的几百年里,
50:19
people have been becoming变得 disembodied脱离现实,
975
3007335
3704
人们开始脱离实体,
50:23
have been distancing疏离 themselves他们自己
from their body身体.
976
3011063
3159
开始和他们的身体保持距离。
50:26
As a hunter-gatherer狩猎采集 or even as a peasant,
977
3014246
2896
作为一个依靠狩猎和
采集生活的人或者一个农民,
50:29
to survive生存, you need to be
constantly经常 in touch触摸
978
3017166
4198
为了生存,你需要不断
50:33
with your body身体 and with your senses感官,
979
3021388
2183
和你的身体和感官保持联系,
50:35
every一切 moment时刻.
980
3023595
1181
每一分每一秒。
50:36
If you go to the forest森林
to look for mushrooms蘑菇
981
3024800
2147
如果你去森林寻找蘑菇,
50:38
and you don't pay工资 attention注意
to what you hear,
982
3026971
2377
然而你不关注你听到的,
50:41
to what you smell, to what you taste味道,
983
3029372
1876
你闻到的,你尝到的,
50:43
you're dead.
984
3031272
1151
你已经死了。
50:44
So you must必须 be very connected连接的.
985
3032447
2151
所以你一定要保持联系。
50:46
In the last hundred years年份,
people are losing失去 their ability能力
986
3034622
4596
在过去的几百年里,人们正在失去
50:51
to be in touch触摸 with their body身体
and their senses感官,
987
3039242
2872
与他们的身体和感官的联系,
50:54
to hear, to smell, to feel.
988
3042138
2186
去听,去闻,去感受。
50:56
More and more attention注意 goes to screens屏幕,
989
3044348
3126
越来越多的注意力转到了屏幕上,
50:59
to what is happening事件 elsewhere别处,
990
3047498
1520
转到了其他地方发生的事情,
51:01
some other time.
991
3049042
1221
到了其他的时间。
51:02
This, I think, is the deep reason原因
992
3050287
2431
这个,我认为,
51:04
for the feelings情怀 of alienation异化
and loneliness孤单 and so forth向前,
993
3052742
3894
是感觉被疏远和寂寞等等的原因,
51:08
and therefore因此 part部分 of the solution
994
3056660
2502
因此,部分解决方式,
51:11
is not to bring带来 back
some mass nationalism民族主义,
995
3059186
4264
不是带回国家主义,
51:15
but also reconnect重新连接 with our own拥有 bodies身体,
996
3063474
4124
而是和我们的身体重新联系,
51:19
and if you are back
in touch触摸 with your body身体,
997
3067622
3263
如果你和你的身体重新联系,
51:22
you will feel much more at home
in the world世界 also.
998
3070909
3170
你也会在世界上感觉更像待在家里。
51:26
CACA: Well, depending根据 on how things go,
we may可能 all be back in the forest森林 soon不久.
999
3074103
3685
克里斯·安德森:取决于事情的发展,
我们可能很快会回到森林里。
51:29
We're going to have
one more question in the room房间
1000
3077812
2349
我们会再提出现场的一个问题,
51:32
and one more on FacebookFacebook的.
1001
3080185
1503
一个Facebook上的问题。
51:33
Ama阿玛 Adi-DakoADI-Dako公司: Hello你好. I'm from Ghana加纳,
West西 Africa非洲, and my question is:
1002
3081712
3381
艾玛·艾迪达克:你好,
我来自非洲西部的加纳,我的问题是
51:37
I'm wondering想知道 how do you present当下
and justify辩解 the idea理念 of global全球 governance治理
1003
3085117
4602
你是如何提出并辩解世界政府对
51:41
to countries国家 that have been
historically历史 disenfranchised被剥夺公民权
1004
3089743
3011
历史上被全球化剥夺利益的国家历史上
51:44
by the effects效果 of globalization全球化,
1005
3092778
2045
51:46
and also, if we're talking about
global全球 governance治理,
1006
3094847
2746
以及我们谈论的世界政府,
51:49
it sounds声音 to me like it will definitely无疑
come from a very Westernized西化 idea理念
1007
3097617
3624
在我的眼里,它一定很像西方国家
认为的“世界”的模样。
51:53
of what the "global全球"
is supposed应该 to look like.
1008
3101265
2174
51:55
So how do we present当下 and justify辩解
that idea理念 of global全球
1009
3103463
3290
所以我们该如何表达和解释这个
51:58
versus wholly nationalist民族主义者
1010
3106777
2993
全球主义和国家主义的概念,
52:01
to people in countries国家 like Ghana加纳
and Nigeria尼日利亚 and Togo多哥
1011
3109794
3335
向加纳,尼日利亚和多哥这样国家
52:05
and other countries国家 like that?
1012
3113153
2176
和其他国家的人们?
52:08
YNHYNH: I would start开始 by saying
that history历史 is extremely非常 unfair不公平,
1013
3116131
6414
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
我认为历史是非常不公平的,
52:14
and that we should realize实现 that.
1014
3122569
3922
我们应该认识到这点。
52:19
Many许多 of the countries国家 that suffered遭遇 most
1015
3127004
3049
许多遭受过
52:22
from the last 200 years年份 of globalization全球化
1016
3130077
4139
持续两百年的
52:26
and imperialism帝国主义 and industrialization工业化
1017
3134240
1960
国际化,帝国主义和工业化的国家,
52:28
are exactly究竟 the countries国家
which哪一个 are also most likely容易 to suffer遭受 most
1018
3136224
5710
下一次也最有可能
52:33
from the next下一个 wave.
1019
3141958
2789
遭受到打击。
52:36
And we should be very,
very clear明确 about that.
1020
3144771
3994
我们应该非常非常强调这一点。
52:41
If we don't have a global全球 governance治理,
1021
3149477
3051
如果我们没有一个世界政府,
52:44
and if we suffer遭受 from climate气候 change更改,
1022
3152552
3203
如果我们遭受到气候变化,
52:47
from technological技术性 disruptions中断,
1023
3155779
2257
遭受到科技导致的扰乱,
52:50
the worst最差 suffering痛苦 will not be in the US.
1024
3158060
3601
最严重的打击不会发生在美国。
52:53
The worst最差 suffering痛苦 will be in Ghana加纳,
will be in Sudan苏丹, will be in Syria叙利亚,
1025
3161685
5096
最严重的打击会在加纳,
会在苏丹,会在叙利亚,
52:58
will be in Bangladesh孟加拉国,
will be in those places地方.
1026
3166805
2737
会在孟加拉国,会在像这样的地方。
53:01
So I think those countries国家
have an even greater更大 incentive激励
1027
3169566
6036
所以我认为这些国家愿意
53:07
to do something about
the next下一个 wave of disruption瓦解,
1028
3175626
4727
为下一次扰乱做出行动,
53:12
whether是否 it's ecological生态
or whether是否 it's technological技术性.
1029
3180377
2525
不管是生态上的,或者科技上的。
53:14
Again, if you think about
technological技术性 disruption瓦解,
1030
3182926
2846
想想科技导致的扰乱,
53:17
so if AIAI and 3D printers打印机 and robots机器人
will take the jobs工作
1031
3185796
4616
如果人工智能、3D打印机和机器人会
53:22
from billions数十亿 of people,
1032
3190436
2369
抢走上十亿人的工作,
53:24
I worry担心 far less about the Swedes瑞典人
1033
3192829
3125
相比瑞典,
53:27
than about the people in Ghana加纳
or in Bangladesh孟加拉国.
1034
3195978
3605
我会更担心在加纳或孟加拉国的人。
53:31
And therefore因此,
because history历史 is so unfair不公平
1035
3199607
5228
因此,因为历史如此不公平,
53:36
and the results结果 of a calamity灾害
1036
3204859
4346
灾难的结果,
53:41
will not be shared共享 equally一样
between之间 everybody每个人,
1037
3209229
2368
并不会被所有人平分,
53:43
as usual通常, the rich丰富
will be able能够 to get away
1038
3211621
4433
富人们总是能够逃脱
53:48
from the worst最差 consequences后果
of climate气候 change更改
1039
3216078
3472
气候变化最严重的结果,
53:51
in a way that the poor较差的
will not be able能够 to.
1040
3219574
2845
穷人们并不能以自之力造成这个结果。
53:55
CACA: And here's这里的 a great question
from Cameron卡梅伦 Taylor泰勒 on FacebookFacebook的:
1041
3223347
3408
克里斯·安德森:
Facebook上的卡梅伦·泰勒有一个好问题,
53:58
"At the end结束 of 'Sapiens“智人,'"
1042
3226779
2121
在《人类简史》的结尾,
54:00
you said we should be asking the question,
1043
3228924
2063
你说我们应该问一个问题,
54:03
'What do we want to want?'
1044
3231011
2356
“我们想要我们想要什么?”
54:05
Well, what do you think
we should want to want?"
1045
3233391
2987
你认为我们应该想要想要什么?
54:08
YNHYNH: I think we should want
to want to know the truth真相,
1046
3236402
3531
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:
我认为我们应该想要了解真相,
54:11
to understand理解 reality现实.
1047
3239957
2650
理解事实。
54:15
Mostly大多 what we want is to change更改 reality现实,
1048
3243207
5114
我们所想的大部分是改变现实,
54:20
to fit适合 it to our own拥有 desires欲望,
to our own拥有 wishes祝福,
1049
3248345
3718
来容纳我们的渴望和希望,
54:24
and I think we should first
want to understand理解 it.
1050
3252087
3720
我认为我们首先应该想的是要去理解它。
54:27
If you look at the long-term长期
trajectory弹道 of history历史,
1051
3255831
3764
根据历史上的长期轨迹,
54:31
what you see is that
for thousands数千 of years年份
1052
3259619
2736
你能看到上千年以来,
54:34
we humans人类 have been gaining取得
control控制 of the world世界 outside us
1053
3262379
3336
我们人类开始控制外界,
54:37
and trying to shape形状 it
to fit适合 our own拥有 desires欲望.
1054
3265739
3494
尝试改变它来适应我们的欲望。
54:41
And we've我们已经 gained获得 control控制
of the other animals动物,
1055
3269257
3188
我们已经控制了其他动物,
54:44
of the rivers河流, of the forests森林,
1056
3272469
1531
控制了河流,控制了森林,
54:46
and reshaped重塑 them completely全然,
1057
3274024
3493
并完全改变了它们,
54:49
causing造成 an ecological生态 destruction毁坏
1058
3277541
3361
造成了一个生态性的毁灭,
54:52
without making制造 ourselves我们自己 satisfied满意.
1059
3280926
3178
但并没有满足我们。
54:56
So the next下一个 step
is we turn our gaze凝视 inwards向内,
1060
3284128
3802
所以下一步我们会转向内在,
54:59
and we say OK, getting得到 control控制
of the world世界 outside us
1061
3287954
4548
我们会说:好,掌握外在世界
55:04
did not really make us satisfied满意.
1062
3292526
1864
其实还没有让我们满足。
55:06
Let's now try to gain获得 control控制
of the world世界 inside us.
1063
3294414
2699
现在尝试掌握内在世界。
55:09
This is the really big project项目
1064
3297137
2163
这是一个很大的计划,
55:11
of science科学 and technology技术
and industry行业 in the 21stST century世纪 --
1065
3299324
4296
关于21世纪科学、科技和工业,
55:15
to try and gain获得 control控制
of the world世界 inside us,
1066
3303644
3522
尝试取得对内在的控制,
55:19
to learn学习 how to engineer工程师 and produce生产
bodies身体 and brains大脑 and minds头脑.
1067
3307190
4923
学习如何驱动和制造身体、大脑和意识。
55:24
These are likely容易 to be the main主要
products制品 of the 21stST century世纪 economy经济.
1068
3312137
4642
这些有可能是21世纪经济的主要产品。
55:28
When people think about the future未来,
very often经常 they think in terms条款,
1069
3316803
3821
当人们谈论未来的时候,
经常他们想的是
55:32
"Oh, I want to gain获得 control控制
of my body身体 and of my brain."
1070
3320648
3947
“哦,我想要获得
我的身体和大脑的控制权。”
55:36
And I think that's very dangerous危险.
1071
3324619
2810
然而我认为这非常危险。
55:39
If we've我们已经 learned学到了 anything
from our previous以前 history历史,
1072
3327453
3266
我们从历史中学到的一件事,
55:42
it's that yes, we gain获得
the power功率 to manipulate操作,
1073
3330743
3913
是没错,我们能够操控,
55:46
but because we didn't really
understand理解 the complexity复杂
1074
3334680
2790
但是因为我们并不
了解生态系统的复杂性,
55:49
of the ecological生态 system系统,
1075
3337494
1805
55:51
we are now facing面对 an ecological生态 meltdown崩溃.
1076
3339323
3690
我们现在面临着生态系统崩溃。
55:55
And if we now try to reengineer重新设计
the world世界 inside us
1077
3343037
5406
如果我们现在尝试改变内在的世界,
56:00
without really understanding理解 it,
1078
3348467
2132
但是并不真正了解他,
56:02
especially特别 without understanding理解
the complexity复杂 of our mental心理 system系统,
1079
3350623
4316
特别是没有对心理复杂程度的了解,
56:06
we might威力 cause原因 a kind of internal内部
ecological生态 disaster灾害,
1080
3354963
4660
我们可能会造成某种内心环境灾难,
56:11
and we'll face面对 a kind of mental心理
meltdown崩溃 inside us.
1081
3359647
3543
我们会面对某种内在心理崩溃。
56:16
CACA: Putting all the pieces
together一起 here --
1082
3364270
2442
克里斯·安德森:总结一下,
56:18
the current当前 politics政治,
the coming未来 technology技术,
1083
3366736
2680
现在的时政,现在的科技,
56:21
concerns关注 like the one
you've just outlined概述 --
1084
3369440
2150
像你刚刚说过的担忧,
56:23
I mean, it seems似乎 like you yourself你自己
are in quite相当 a bleak苍凉 place地点
1085
3371614
3095
似乎你觉得未来
56:26
when you think about the future未来.
1086
3374733
1621
是一个比较黑暗的地方。
56:28
You're pretty漂亮 worried担心 about it.
1087
3376378
1582
你好像很担心。
56:29
Is that right?
1088
3377984
1192
没错吗?
56:31
And if there was one cause原因 for hope希望,
how would you state that?
1089
3379200
6688
如果有希望,你认为是什么样的?
56:37
YNHYNH: I focus焦点 on the most
dangerous危险 possibilities可能性
1090
3385912
4163
尤瓦尔·赫拉利:我注重最危险的可能,
56:42
partly部分地 because this is like
my job工作 or responsibility责任
1091
3390099
3021
因为这是我的工作和责任,
56:45
as a historian历史学家 or social社会 critic评论家.
1092
3393144
1781
作为一个历史学家和批判家。
56:46
I mean, the industry行业 focuses重点 mainly主要
on the positive sides双方,
1093
3394949
4762
社会主要关注于积极的一面,
56:51
so it's the job工作 of historians历史学家
and philosophers哲学家 and sociologists社会学家
1094
3399735
3361
所以历史学家、哲学家和社会学家的责任
56:55
to highlight突出 the more dangerous危险 potential潜在
of all these new technologies技术.
1095
3403120
4441
就是强调这些新科技更危险的潜能。
56:59
I don't think any of that is inevitable必然.
1096
3407585
2483
我不认为这些是不可避免的。
57:02
Technology技术 is never deterministic确定性.
1097
3410092
3039
科技决定不了一切。
57:05
You can use the same相同 technology技术
1098
3413155
1717
你可以用同样的科技,
57:06
to create创建 very different不同
kinds of societies社会.
1099
3414896
2991
来创造非常不同的社会。
57:09
If you look at the 20th century世纪,
1100
3417911
2038
看看20世纪,
57:11
so, the technologies技术
of the Industrial产业 Revolution革命,
1101
3419973
2781
工业革命时的科技,
57:14
the trains火车 and electricity电力 and all that
1102
3422778
3057
火车和电力等等
57:17
could be used to create创建
a communist共产 dictatorship专政
1103
3425859
3052
都会被用来成立社会主义独裁,
57:20
or a fascist法西斯 regime政权
or a liberal自由主义的 democracy民主.
1104
3428935
2805
或者一个法西斯政权,或者自由民主。
57:23
The trains火车 did not tell you
what to do with them.
1105
3431764
2528
火车并不会告诉你要做什么。
57:26
Similarly同样, now, artificial人造 intelligence情报
and bioengineering生物工程 and all of that --
1106
3434316
4452
相似的,人工智能和生物工程等等,
57:30
they don't predetermine预先确定 a single outcome结果.
1107
3438792
3514
它们不会决定一个单一的未来。
57:34
Humanity人性 can rise上升 up to the challenge挑战,
1108
3442886
3177
人类会积极面对挑战,
57:38
and the best最好 example we have
1109
3446087
1691
人类雄起面对新科技的挑战最好的例子,
57:39
of humanity人性 rising升起 up
to the challenge挑战 of a new technology技术
1110
3447802
3740
57:43
is nuclear weapons武器.
1111
3451566
1723
就是核武器。
57:45
In the late晚了 1940s, '50s,
1112
3453313
3009
在20世纪40、50年代后期,
57:48
many许多 people were convinced相信
1113
3456346
2139
很多人相信
57:50
that sooner or later后来 the Cold War战争
will end结束 in a nuclear catastrophe灾难,
1114
3458509
4306
冷战迟早会在一场核灾难中结束,
57:54
destroying销毁 human人的 civilization文明.
1115
3462839
1775
摧毁人类文明。
57:56
And this did not happen发生.
1116
3464638
1480
然而这没有发生,
57:58
In fact事实, nuclear weapons武器 prompted提示
humans人类 all over the world世界
1117
3466142
6420
事实上,核武器在世界上促进了
58:04
to change更改 the way that they manage管理
international国际 politics政治
1118
3472586
4741
人类改变国际政治的方式,
58:09
to reduce减少 violence暴力.
1119
3477351
2369
来减少暴力。
58:11
And many许多 countries国家 basically基本上 took out war战争
1120
3479744
3239
很多国家基本上把战争
58:15
from their political政治 toolkit工具包.
1121
3483007
1874
从他们的战略书中移除。
58:16
They no longer tried试着 to pursue追求
their interests利益 with warfare.
1122
3484905
4270
它们不在尝试用战争追求利益。
58:21
Not all countries国家 have doneDONE so,
but many许多 countries国家 have.
1123
3489580
3270
不是所有的国家都做到了,
但是许多做到了。
58:24
And this is maybe
the most important重要 reason原因
1124
3492874
3934
这可能是为什么1945年后
58:28
why international国际 violence暴力
declined下降 dramatically显着 since以来 1945,
1125
3496832
6102
国际冲突急剧减少的重要原因。
58:34
and today今天, as I said,
more people commit承诺 suicide自杀
1126
3502958
3338
现在,正如我说的,
58:38
than are killed杀害 in war战争.
1127
3506320
2207
死于自杀的人其实多余死于战争的。
58:40
So this, I think, gives us a good example
1128
3508551
4829
所以,我认为,这给我们了一个很好的例子
58:45
that even the most frightening可怕的 technology技术,
1129
3513404
3842
说明了即使最令人害怕的科技,
58:49
humans人类 can rise上升 up to the challenge挑战
1130
3517270
2535
人类也能雄起面对挑战,
58:51
and actually其实 some good can come out of it.
1131
3519829
3023
而且还会能从中获益。
58:54
The problem问题 is, we have very little
margin余量 for error错误.
1132
3522876
4287
问题是,留给我们犯错的余地太少了,
58:59
If we don't get it right,
1133
3527187
2209
如果我们做的不对,
59:01
we might威力 not have
a second第二 option选项 to try again.
1134
3529420
3671
我们可能不会有第二次尝试的机会。
59:06
CACA: That's a very powerful强大 note注意,
1135
3534337
1567
克里斯·安德森:
这是一个很有利的说服点,
59:07
on which哪一个 I think we should draw
this to a conclusion结论.
1136
3535928
2805
我认为我们应该总结一下了。
59:10
Before I wrap up, I just want to say
one thing to people here
1137
3538757
3111
在结束之前,我想对现场的人、
59:13
and to the global全球 TEDTED community社区
watching观看 online线上, anyone任何人 watching观看 online线上:
1138
3541892
5546
TED全球社区
和所有在网络上观看的人说:
59:19
help us with these dialogues对话.
1139
3547462
2893
帮助我们建立这些对话。
59:22
If you believe, like we do,
1140
3550379
2550
如果你像我们一样相信,
59:24
that we need to find
a different不同 kind of conversation会话,
1141
3552953
2980
我们需要找到一个不同的沟通方式,
59:27
now more than ever, help us do it.
1142
3555957
2233
就在当下,帮助我们。
59:30
Reach达到 out to other people,
1143
3558214
2023
帮助其他人,
59:33
try and have conversations对话
with people you disagree不同意 with,
1144
3561269
2740
尝试和你不同意的人沟通,
59:36
understand理解 them,
1145
3564033
1183
理解他们,
59:37
pull the pieces together一起,
1146
3565240
1530
理清思路,
59:38
and help us figure数字 out how to take
these conversations对话 forward前锋
1147
3566794
3892
并帮助我们想方法推动这个对话,
59:42
so we can make a real真实 contribution贡献
1148
3570710
2254
所以我们可以像世界上发生的事情
59:44
to what's happening事件
in the world世界 right now.
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做出真正的贡献。
59:47
I think everyone大家 feels感觉 more alive,
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我认为每一个人都感觉更清晰了,
59:51
more concerned关心, more engaged订婚
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更担忧了,更深入了,
59:53
with the politics政治 of the moment时刻.
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对现在的时政。
59:55
The stakes赌注 do seem似乎 quite相当 high,
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赌注真的看似很高,
59:58
so help us respond响应 to it
in a wise明智的, wise明智的 way.
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所以帮助我们把它下在一个明智的地方。
00:03
Yuval尤瓦 Harari哈拉里, thank you.
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尤瓦尔·赫拉利,谢谢。
00:04
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Conway Ye
Reviewed by Qinyang Zeng

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.

Why you should listen

In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.

Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill GatesMark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.

Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.

Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com