ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism.

Why you should listen

Burt Rutan is widely regarded as one of the world's most important industrial designers, and his prolific contributions to air- and spacecraft design have driven the industry forward for decades. His two companies, Rutan Aircraft Factory and Scaled Composites, have developed and flight-tested more new types of aircraft than the rest of the US industry combined. He has himself designed hundreds of aircraft, including the famous Voyager, which his brother piloted on a record-breaking nine-day nonstop flight around the world. 

Rutan might also be the person to make low-cost space tourism a reality: He's one of the major players promoting entrepreneurial approaches to space exploration, and his collaboration with Virgin Galactic is the most promising of these efforts. SpaceShipTwo, a collaboration between Richard Branson and Rutan completed its first "captive carry" in March of 2010, marking the beginning of the era of commercial space exploration.

Ever the maverick, Rutan is known for both his bold proclamations and his criticism of the aerospace industry. Witness the opening line of his presentation at TED2006: "Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space."

More profile about the speaker
Burt Rutan | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Burt Rutan: The real future of space exploration

伯特 鲁坦 预见太空未来

Filmed:
2,412,936 views

在这篇热情洋溢的演讲中,传奇的宇宙飞船设计者伯特 鲁坦鞭笞美国停滞政府资助的空间探索项目,并呼吁企业家重拾这个美国国家宇航局中断的项目。
- Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
I want to start开始 off by saying, Houston休斯顿, we have a problem问题.
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我想从这里开始,休斯顿,我们有个问题。
00:30
We're entering进入 a second第二 generation of no progress进展
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我们已经有二十年没有进展了
00:34
in terms条款 of human人的 flight飞行 in space空间. In fact事实, we've我们已经 regressed回归.
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在人类太空飞行方面。事实上,我们退步了。
00:39
We stand a very big chance机会 of losing失去 our ability能力 to inspire启发 our youth青年
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我们非常有可能失去鼓励年轻人的能力,
00:45
to go out and continue继续 this very important重要 thing
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让他们走出去,继续做这非常重要的事情
00:48
that we as a species种类 have always doneDONE.
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做我们人类已经做了的事情。
00:50
And that is, instinctively本能 we've我们已经 gone走了 out
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那就是,我们已经本能地走出去
00:53
and climbed爬上 over difficult places地方, went to more hostile敌对 places地方,
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翻过困难之地,去往更加困难的地方,
00:59
and found发现 out later后来, maybe to our surprise, that that's the reason原因 we survived幸存.
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之后发现,也许会令我们吃惊,这些就是我们生存下来的理由。
01:05
And I feel very strongly非常
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我强烈的感觉到
01:07
that it's not good enough足够 for us to have generations of kids孩子
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这不太好,如果我们世代的后辈
01:11
that think that it's OK to look forward前锋 to a better version
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只想着要一个更好
01:15
of a cell细胞 phone电话 with a video视频 in it.
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带录像的手机。
01:18
They need to look forward前锋 to exploration勘探; they need to look forward前锋 to colonization定植;
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他们要渴望探索,他们要渴望征服,
01:22
they need to look forward前锋 to breakthroughs突破.
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他们要渴望突破。他们需要这些。
01:26
We need to inspire启发 them, because they need to lead us
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我们要鼓励他们,因为他们将来要领导我们
01:30
and help us survive生存 in the future未来.
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帮助我们生存。
01:33
I'm particularly尤其 troubled苦恼 that what NASA's美国航空航天局 doing right now with this new Bush衬套 doctrine教义
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我特别担心,美国国家宇航局现在根据新的布什政府的原则所做的
01:39
to -- for this next下一个 decade and a half -- oh shoot射击, I screwed up.
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--因为在未来十五年--哦 天呢,我错了。
01:45
We have real真实 specific具体 instructions说明 here not to talk about politics政治.
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在这里我们有非常明确的规定,不可以谈政治。
01:50
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
01:51
What we're looking forward前锋 to is --
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我们所期待的是--
01:54
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
01:55
what we're looking forward前锋 to
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我们所期待的
01:58
is not only the inspiration灵感 of our children孩子,
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是不止鼓励我们的孩子
02:01
but the current当前 plan计划 right now is not really even allowing允许
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但我们现行的政策甚至不允许
02:06
the most creative创作的 people in this country国家 -- the Boeing's波音公司 and Lockheed's洛克希德·马丁公司
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这个国家最有创造力的--波音航空公司和洛克希德导弹与航天公司的
02:10
space空间 engineers工程师 -- to go out and take risks风险 and try new stuff东东.
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航天工程师走出去,承担风险,尝试新装置。
02:16
We're going to go back to the moon月亮 ... 50 years年份 later后来?
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我们将要回到月球--50年以后--
02:22
And we're going to do it very specifically特别 planned计划 to not learn学习 anything new.
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我们正准备仔细地计划这件事情,学习任何新知识。
02:28
I'm really troubled苦恼 by that. But anyway无论如何 that's --
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我因此非常担心。但无论如何,那是--
02:32
the basis基础 of the thing that I want to share分享 with you today今天, though虽然,
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我今天想和你们分享的事情的基础,尽管如此
02:36
is that right back to where we inspire启发 people
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就回到了我们要鼓励人们
02:40
who will be our great leaders领导者 later后来.
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鼓励日后会成为我们伟大领导的人们。
02:42
That's the theme主题 of my next下一个 15 minutes分钟 here.
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那是我在这里接下来15分钟的主题。
02:46
And I think that the inspiration灵感 begins开始 when you're very young年轻:
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我认为在你们小的时候就开始被鼓励:
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three-year-olds三岁的孩子, up to 12-, 14-year-olds- 年的孩子.
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从三岁的婴儿直到12,14岁的小孩。
02:54
What they look at is the most important重要 thing.
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我们--最重要的事情是他们看到了什么。
02:58
Let's take a snapshot快照 at aviation航空.
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让我们迅速回览一下航空工业。
03:01
And there was a wonderful精彩 little short four-year四年 time period
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曾有四年短暂的美好时期
03:04
when marvelous奇妙 things happened发生.
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那时发生了许多奇迹。
03:07
It started开始 in 1908, when the Wright赖特 brothers兄弟 flew in Paris巴黎, and everybody每个人 said,
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那段时期开始于1908年,当怀特兄弟在巴黎飞行,每个人都说,
03:11
"Ooh, hey, I can do that." There's only a few少数 people that have flown飞行
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“哦,嘿!我能做这个。”只有极少的人曾飞过
03:15
in early 1908. In four years年份, 39 countries国家 had hundreds数以百计 of airplanes飞机,
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在1908年初。四年里,39个国家有了上百架飞机,
03:20
thousand of pilots飞行员. Airplanes飞机 were invented发明 by natural自然 selection选择.
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上千名飞行员。飞机通过自然选择被发明了出来。
03:24
Now you can say that intelligent智能 design设计 designs设计 our airplanes飞机 of today今天,
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现在你可以说聪明的设计设计了我们今天的飞机,
03:28
but there was no intelligent智能 design设计 really designing设计 those early airplanes飞机.
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但没有聪明的设计真正设计了那些早期的飞机。
03:32
There were probably大概 at least最小 30,000 different不同 things tried试着,
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可能至少有3000种不同的尝试,
03:37
and when they crash紧急 and kill the pilot飞行员, don't try that again.
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如果飞行器坠毁,飞行员身亡,就不再尝试此种飞行器。
03:41
The ones那些 that flew and landed登陆 OK
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能够飞行和着陆的就是好的,
03:44
because there were no trained熟练 pilots飞行员
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因为没有训练有素的飞行员
03:45
who had good flying飞行 qualities气质 by definition定义.
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没有真正有好的飞行素质之人。
03:49
So we, by making制造 a whole整个 bunch of attempts尝试, thousands数千 of attempts尝试,
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所以我们,通过做一大堆尝试,几千次的尝试,
03:54
in that four-year四年 time period, we invented发明 the concepts概念
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在那四年里,我们发明了
03:57
of the airplanes飞机 that we fly today今天. And that's why they're so safe安全,
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我们今天飞行所用的飞机。这就是为什么我们这么安全,
04:00
as we gave it a lot of chance机会 to find what's good.
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因为我们给了自己很多机会去发现什么是好的。
04:04
That has not happened发生 at all in space空间 flying飞行.
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在宇宙飞行领域,我们没有给自己一点儿机会。
04:06
There's only been two concepts概念 tried试着 -- two by the U.S. and one by the Russians俄罗斯.
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只尝试了两个想法 -- 美国尝试了两个,俄罗斯尝试了一个。
04:10
Well, who was inspired启发 during that time period?
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那么,在这段时期,谁被鼓舞了?
04:12
Aviation航空 Week asked me to make a list名单 of who I thought
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《航空周刊》让我列一个表,列出我认为
04:15
were the movers搬运工 and shakers振动筛 of the first 100 years年份 of aviation航空.
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这一百年的航空事业的推动者。
04:18
And I wrote them down and I found发现 out later后来 that every一切 one of them
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我把他们写了出来,之后发现他们每一个人
04:22
was a little kid孩子 in that wonderful精彩 renaissance再生 of aviation航空.
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在航天事业的奇妙复兴之时都是小孩子。
04:29
Well, what happened发生 when I was a little kid孩子 was -- some pretty漂亮 heavy stuff东东 too.
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那么,当我小的时候发生了什么-- 也是非常重大的事件。
04:33
The jet喷射 age年龄 started开始: the missile导弹 age年龄 started开始. Von Braun布劳恩 was on there
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喷气式飞机时代开始了,导弹时代开始了。冯 布劳恩在那里
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showing展示 how to go to Mars火星 -- and this was before Sputnik人造地球卫星.
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展示如何登上火星 -- 这些事早于人造地球卫星的制造。
04:40
And this was at a time when Mars火星 was a hell地狱 of a lot more interesting有趣
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那时火星是一个非常令人感兴趣的地方
04:44
than it is now. We thought there'd这红色 be animals动物 there;
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比现在有趣得多。我们曾以为那里有动物存在,
04:46
we knew知道 there were plants植物 there; the colors颜色 change更改, right?
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我们知道那里有植物,有色彩变幻,不是吗?
04:50
But, you know, NASANASA screwed that up because they've他们已经 sent发送 these robots机器人
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但是,你知道,美国国家宇航局搞砸了这事情,因为他们派遣了这些机器人
04:53
and they've他们已经 landed登陆 it only in the deserts沙漠.
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而他们只着陆在了沙漠里。
04:56
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
05:00
If you look at what happened发生 -- this little black黑色 line线 is as fast快速 as man ever flew,
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如果你看一看发生了什么 -- 这条小黑线和人们曾经飞行的速度一样快,
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and the red line线 is top-of-the-line顶级的所述线 military军事 fighters战士
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这条红线代表军队里速度最快的飞行员
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and the blue蓝色 line线 is commercial广告 air空气 transport运输.
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蓝色代表商业飞机运输。
05:13
You notice注意 here's这里的 a big jump when I was a little kid孩子 --
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你注意这里有一个大的跳跃。当我还是一个小孩时--
05:15
and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage勇气
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我认为曾有些事给予我勇气
05:19
to go out and try something that other people weren't having the courage勇气 to try.
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走出去,尝试其他人没勇气去做的事。
05:24
Well, what did I do when I was a kid孩子?
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那么,我小时候做了什么?
05:26
I didn't do the hotrodshotrods and the girls女孩 and the dancing跳舞
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我那时没有玩车,交女朋友,没有跳舞。
05:29
and, well, we didn't have drugs毒品 in those days. But I did competition竞争 model模型 airplanes飞机.
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并且,那时我也没有吸毒。我做了些比赛用的飞机模型。
05:34
I spent花费 about seven years年份 during the Vietnam越南 War战争
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越战时,我花了七年时间
05:36
flight-testing飞行测试 airplanes飞机 for the Air空气 Force.
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为空军做飞机飞行测试。
05:39
And then I went in and I had a lot of fun开玩笑 building建造 airplanes飞机
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后来,我涉猎飞机制造,并从中的到甚多乐趣
05:41
that people could build建立 in their garages车库.
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那些飞机是人们可以在自家车库里制造的。
05:44
And some 3,000 of those are flying飞行. Of course课程, one of them
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这些里面有约有3000架正在飞行。当然,它们中的一架
05:47
is around the world世界 Voyager航海家. I founded成立 another另一个 company公司 in '82,
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是可以环游世界的航行者号(Voyager)。我在1982年建立了另一家公司,
05:51
which哪一个 is my company公司 now.
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就是我现在的公司。
05:53
And we have developed发达 more than one new type类型 of airplane飞机 every一切 year since以来 1982.
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从1982年起,我们公司每年研发不只一种飞机,
06:00
And there's a lot of them that I actually其实 can't show显示 you on this chart图表.
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有许多飞机我无法在这张图上介绍给大家。
06:04
The most impressive有声有色 airplane飞机 ever, I believe, was designed设计
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最令人印象深刻的飞机,我相信,是那架
06:08
only a dozen years年份 after the first operational操作 jet喷射.
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在第一架喷气式飞机制造出后,仅过了十二年就设计出的飞机。
06:12
Stayed沉祥福 in service服务 till直到 it was too rusty生疏 to fly, taken采取 out of service服务.
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它一直在飞行,直到锈迹斑斑才不再服役。
06:16
We retreated撤退 in '98 back to something that was developed发达 in '56. What?
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我们1998年的研发水平倒退至1956年。什么?
06:23
The most impressive有声有色 spaceship飞船 ever, I believe,
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史上最震撼人心的宇宙飞船,我相信,
06:26
was a Grumman格鲁曼公司 Lunar太阴 Lander着陆器. It was a -- you know, it landed登陆 on the moon月亮,
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是格鲁曼公司(Grumman)所做的登月艇。它是一艘--你知道,它在月球着陆,
06:31
take off of the moon月亮, didn't need any maintenance保养 guys --
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从月球起飞,无需人员维护--
06:33
that's kind of cool.
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那有点儿酷。
06:35
We've我们已经 lost丢失 that capability能力. We abandoned it in '72.
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我们已经丧失了能力。我们在1972年放弃了它。
06:38
This thing was designed设计 three years年份 after Gagarin加加林 first flew in space空间 in 1961.
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这架飞船在前苏联宇航员加加林(Gagarin)1961年首次宇宙飞行的三年后被设计出来。
06:43
Three years年份, and we can't do that now. Crazy.
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三年,而我们现在做不到了。
06:48
Talk very briefly简要地 about innovation革新 cycles周期, things that grow增长,
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疯狂。简短地谈一下发明创造的周期,周期发展时
06:53
have a lot of activity活动; they die out when they're replaced更换 by something else其他.
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会衍生许多活动,当这些活动被其他活动取代,此周期就灭亡了。
06:57
These things tend趋向 to happen发生 every一切 25 years年份.
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这样的周期每25年出现一次。
07:00
40 years年份 long, with an overlap交叠. You can put that statement声明
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持续40年的时间,有些周期相互交叠。你可以将此观点
07:04
on all kinds of different不同 technologies技术. The interesting有趣 thing --
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放至不同的科技。这有趣的事情--
07:07
by the way, the speed速度 here, excuse借口 me, higher-speed更高速度 travel旅行
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顺便一提,这里的速度,不好意思,高速旅行
07:10
is the title标题 of these innovation革新 cycles周期. There is none没有 here.
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是这些发明创造周期的标题。这里没有一个。
07:16
These two new airplanes飞机 are the same相同 speed速度 as the DCDC8 that was doneDONE in 1958.
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这两架飞机与1958年制造的DC8速度相同。
07:24
Here's这里的 the biggie大不了, and that is, you don't have innovation革新 cycles周期
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这是件大事,那就是,你没有发明创造周期
07:27
if the government政府 develops发展 and the government政府 uses使用 it.
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如果政府研发并应用其研发成果。
07:30
You know, a good example, of course课程, is the DARPADARPA net.
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你知道,一个好的例子,当然就是DARPA网。
07:34
Computers电脑 were used for artillery炮兵 first, then IRSIRS.
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电脑首先应用于炮兵部队,然后是美国国税局(IRS)。
07:37
But when we got it, now you have all the level水平 of activity活动,
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但当我们得到它时,现在你拥有所有活动的级别,
07:40
all the benefit效益 from it. Private私人的 sector扇形 has to do it.
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所有由它而来的利益。私营部门不得不这么做。
07:44
Keep that in mind心神. I put down innovation革新 --
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记住它。我提出发明创新--
07:47
I've looked看着 for innovation革新 cycles周期 in space空间; I found发现 none没有.
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我期待看到宇宙空间的发明创新周期,但我什么也没发现。
07:50
The very first year, starting开始 when Gagarin加加林 went in space空间,
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在最初的那一年,从加加林和
07:54
and a few少数 weeks later后来 Alan艾伦 Shepherd牧羊人, there were five manned载人
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和几周后阿兰 谢巴德进入太空开始,世界上有五次人造
07:57
space空间 flights航班 in the world世界 -- the very first year.
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飞船航行;在最初的那一年。
08:00
In 2003, everyone大家 that the United联合的 States状态 sent发送 to space空间 was killed杀害.
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2003年,美国的送入太空的每个人都牺牲了。
08:09
There were only three or four flights航班 in 2003.
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2003年只有三或四次飞行。
08:11
In 2004, there were only two flights航班: two Russian俄语 Soyuz联盟 flights航班
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2004年,只有两次飞行:两次俄罗斯联盟号飞船飞行
08:18
to the international国际 manned载人 station. And I had to fly three in Mojave莫哈韦
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至国际空间站。而我不得不在莫哈维沙漠起飞三次
08:22
with my little group of a couple一对 dozen people
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和我的两队人马一起
08:24
in order订购 to get to a total of five,
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为了达到5次飞行的总数,
08:26
which哪一个 was the number the same相同 year back in 1961.
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这是1961年的数字。
08:31
There is no growth发展. There's no activity活动. There's no nothing.
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没有进步。没有活动。什么也没有。
08:36
This is a picture图片 here taken采取 from SpaceShipOne太空船一号.
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这张照片取自一号太空飞船。
08:39
This is a picture图片 here taken采取 from orbit轨道.
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这张照片取自轨道。
08:41
Our goal目标 is to make it so that you can see this picture图片 and really enjoy请享用 that.
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我们的目标是拍下这些照片,这样大家就能看到它,真正地喜欢它。
08:47
We know how to do it for sub-orbital亚轨道 flying飞行 now, do it safe安全 enough足够 --
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我们知道如何为亚轨道飞行拍照片,非常安全地做这件事--
08:51
at least最小 as safe安全 as the early airlines航空公司 -- so that can be doneDONE.
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至少像早期的航线一样安全--所以可以做。
08:55
And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage勇气
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我认为我想了点儿为什么我们有勇气
09:00
to go out and try that as a small company公司.
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尝试飞到太空,我们是个小公司。
09:07
Well, first of all, what's going to happen发生 next下一个?
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那么,首先,接下来会发生什么?
09:10
The first industry行业 will be a high volume, a lot of players玩家.
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第一产业将会数量巨大,参与者众多。
09:14
There's another另一个 one announced公布 just last week.
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上周有另一个公司宣布它们可以。
09:17
And it will be sub-orbital亚轨道. And the reason原因 it has to be sub-orbital亚轨道
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这次飞行将会是亚轨道。亚轨道的原因
09:23
is, there is not solutions解决方案 for adequate充足 safety安全
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是,没有保证充分安全的方法
09:26
to fly the public上市 to orbit轨道. The governments政府 have been doing this --
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可以带领大众飞至轨道。一些国家的政府正在这样做--
09:31
three governments政府 have been doing this for 45 years年份,
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有三个政府已经这么做了45年,
09:33
and still four percent百分 of the people that have left the atmosphere大气层 have died死亡.
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仍然有百分之四十的人命丧太空。
09:37
That's -- You don't want to run a business商业 with that kind of a safety安全 record记录.
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那是--你不想经营一项有这种安全记录的事业。
09:42
It'll它会 be very high volume; we think 100,000 people will fly by 2020.
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它的量会变得很大;我们认为到2020年将会有100000人进行太空飞行。
09:48
I can't tell you when this will start开始,
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我不能告诉你太空旅行何时开始,
09:50
because I don't want my competition竞争 to know my schedule时间表.
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因为我不想我的竞争者知道我的计划。
09:53
But I think once一旦 it does, we will find solutions解决方案,
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但我认为一旦开始,我们将会找到解决方案。
09:58
and very quickly很快, you'll你会 see those resort采取 hotels酒店 in orbit轨道.
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并且很快,你将在轨道上看到旅游旅店。
10:01
And that real真实 easy简单 thing to do, which哪一个 is a swing摇摆 around the moon月亮
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去月球上绕一圈是非常容易做到的事情,
10:04
so you have this cool view视图. And that will be really cool.
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因为你能看到非常酷的景象。那确实会很酷。
10:08
Because the moon月亮 doesn't have an atmosphere大气层 --
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因为月球没有大气层环绕--
10:10
you can do an elliptical椭圆的 orbit轨道 and miss小姐 it by 10 feet if you want.
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如果你愿意,你可以绕误差在10英尺的椭圆形轨道飞行。
10:13
Oh, it's going to be so much fun开玩笑.
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噢,那会非常有趣。
10:15
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
10:17
OK. My critics批评者 say, "Hey, Rutan's鲁坦的 just spending开支
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好。批评我的人说,“嘿,鲁坦,只是花着”
10:21
a lot of these billionaires'亿万富翁 money for joyridesjoyrides for billionaires亿万富翁.
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这些亿万富翁的钱,为其创造游览飞行。
10:26
What's this? This is not a transportation运输 system系统; it's just for fun开玩笑."
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这是什么?这不是运输系统,它只是用于消遣。“
10:31
And I used to be bothered困扰 by that, and then I got to thinking思维,
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我过去常常因此而困扰,后来我开始思考。
10:34
well, wait a minute分钟. I bought my first Apple苹果 computer电脑 in 1978
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那么,等一下。我带来了我的第一台1978年的苹果电脑
10:39
and I bought it because I could say, "I got a computer电脑 at my house and you don't.
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我把它带来因为我可以说,“我在家里有一台电脑,而你没有。
10:45
'What do you use it for?' Come over. It does Frogger青蛙." OK.
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‘用它做什么?’过来。它能玩青蛙过街。”好吧。
10:50
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
10:51
Not the bank's银行 computer电脑 or Lockheed's洛克希德·马丁公司 computer电脑,
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不是银行的电脑或洛克希德导弹与航天公司的电脑,
10:54
but the home computer电脑 was for games游戏.
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家用电脑是用于游戏的。
10:57
For a whole整个 decade it was for fun开玩笑 -- we didn't even know what it was for.
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对于整整一代来说,它是用于消遣--我们甚至不知道它是用于做什么的。
11:01
But what happened发生, the fact事实 that we had this big industry行业,
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但是发生了什么,我们有了这个巨大的产业,
11:05
big development发展, big improvement起色 and capability能力 and so on,
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巨大的发展,巨大的进步和能力等等,
11:09
and they get out there in enough足够 homes家园 -- we were ripe成熟 for a new invention发明.
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他们被许多的家庭所知,我们的新发明变得成熟。
11:14
And the inventor发明者 is in this audience听众.
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而发明者就坐在观众席里。
11:16
Al Gore血块 invented发明 the Internet互联网 and because of that,
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阿尔 戈尔发明了互联网,因此,
11:20
something that we used for a whole整个 year -- excuse借口 me --
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互联网--我们用了一整年--不好意思,
11:23
a whole整个 decade for fun开玩笑, became成为 everything -- our commerce商业, our research研究,
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整整一代用其消遣,变成了每一件事情--我们的商业,我们的研究,
11:29
our communication通讯 and, if we let the Google谷歌 guys
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我们的交流而且,如果我们让谷歌的人
11:33
think for another另一个 couple一对 weekends周末, we can add a dozen more things to the list名单. (Laughter笑声)
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再想连个周末,我们能在此表上再加上许多条。
11:37
And it won't惯于 be very long before you won't惯于 be able能够 to convince说服 kids孩子
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要不了多久,孩子们就不会相信
11:40
that we didn't always have computers电脑 in our homes家园.
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我们的家里电脑曾经并不普及。
11:45
So fun开玩笑 is defendable可防御.
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所以乐趣是应该被保护的。
11:48
OK, I want to show显示 you kind of a busy chart图表,
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好,我想展示给大家一张复杂的表,
11:53
but in it is my prediction预测 with what's going to happen发生.
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里面是我对未来会发生什么的预言。
11:56
And in it also brings带来 up another另一个 point, right here.
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里面也提出了另一个观点,就在这。
12:00
There's a group of people that have come forward前锋 --
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有一群人已经前进--
12:04
and you don't know all of them -- but the ones那些 that have come forward前锋
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你不认识他们所有人--但那些已经前进的人
12:07
were inspired启发 as young年轻 children孩子, this little three-三- to 15-year-old-岁 age年龄,
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像3至15岁的年轻孩子一样被我们鼓励
12:14
by us going to orbit轨道 and going to the moon月亮 here,
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他们将飞向轨道,飞向月亮,
12:17
right in this time period.
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就在这个时期。
12:19
Paul保罗 Allen艾伦, Elan义隆 Musk, Richard理查德 Branson布兰森, Jeff杰夫 Bezos贝佐斯, the Ansari安萨里 family家庭,
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保罗 艾伦,艾伦 莫斯克,理查德 布兰森,杰夫 贝佐斯,安萨里家族,
12:29
which哪一个 is now funding资金 the Russians'俄罗斯人 sub-orbital亚轨道 thing,
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他们现在资助俄罗斯的亚轨道航行,
12:34
Bob短发 Bigelow毕格罗, a private私人的 space空间 station, and Carmack卡马克.
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鲍勃 比洛奇,一个私人空间站,和卡马克。
12:38
These people are taking服用 money and putting it in an interesting有趣 area,
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这些人把钱投入一个有趣的领域,
12:44
and I think it's a lot better than they put it in an area
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而我认为这笔把钱
12:47
of a better cell细胞 phone电话 or something -- but they're putting it in very --
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花在买一个更好的手机或其他事情上要好得多--但他们把钱投入到非常[模糊的]
12:51
areas and this will lead us into this kind of capability能力,
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区域,而这将会引导我们获得这种能力,
12:55
and it will lead us into the next下一个 really big thing
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这将会引导我们进入下一个真正大的事件
12:57
and it will allow允许 us to explore探索. And I think eventually终于
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这会让我们探索。而我认为最终
13:01
it will allow允许 us to colonize拓殖 and to keep us from going extinct绝种.
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这会让我们能够得到地盘,使我们远离灭亡。
13:05
They were inspired启发 by big progress进展. But look at the progress进展 that's going on after that.
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他们被巨大的进程所鼓舞。但看看那之后的进程。
13:11
There were a couple一对 of examples例子 here.
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这里有两个例子。
13:13
The military军事 fighters战士 had a -- highest-performance最高性能 military军事 airplane飞机
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军事战斗机有一架最高性能的空军飞机
13:17
was the SRSR71. It went a whole整个 life cycle周期, got too rusty生疏 to fly,
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是SR71.它走过了整个生命周期,直到锈迹斑斑才停滞飞行,
13:22
and was taken采取 out of service服务. The Concorde协和 doubled翻倍 the speed速度 for airline航空公司 travel旅行.
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退出服役。协和式飞机使空军旅行速度翻倍。
13:27
It went a whole整个 life cycle周期 without competition竞争,
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它飞过了整个生命周期,没有遇到任何竞争;
13:30
took out of service服务. And we're stuck卡住 back here
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然后停飞。而我们就此卡住
13:33
with the same相同 kind of capability能力 for military军事 fighters战士
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拥有这样的军事战斗机
13:36
and commercial广告 airline航空公司 travel旅行 that we had back in the late晚了 '50s.
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和商业航空旅行,我们回到了50年代末期。
13:40
But something is out there to inspire启发 our kids孩子 now.
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但现在出现了一些事情去鼓舞我们的孩子。
13:44
And I'm talking about if you've got a baby宝宝 now,
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我是说如果你现在有一个婴儿,
13:46
or if you've got a 10-year-old-岁 now.
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或你有一个10岁的孩子。
13:47
What's out there is there's something really interesting有趣 going to happen发生 here.
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外面正在发生一些非常有趣的事情。
13:53
Relatively相对 soon不久, you'll你会 be able能够 to buy购买 a ticket
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不就,你就能买张票
13:55
and fly higher更高 and faster更快 than the highest-performance最高性能
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然后飞地比最高性能的军事作战飞机更高、更快。
14:00
military军事 operational操作 airplane飞机. It's never happened发生 before.
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这在之前从未发生过。
14:04
The fact事实 that they have stuck卡住 here with this kind of performance性能
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事实是它们拥有着这种性能的飞行器却止步不前,
14:09
has been, well, you know, you win赢得 the war战争 in 12 minutes分钟;
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那么,你知道,你在12分钟之内赢得了这场战争,
14:12
why do you need something better?
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为什么你需要更好的东西?
14:13
But I think when you guys start开始 buying购买 tickets门票 and flying飞行
215
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但我认为当你们开始卖票,开始
14:16
sub-orbital亚轨道 flights航班 to space空间, very soon不久 -- wait a minute分钟,
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5000
亚轨道飞行,通往太空,很快--稍等,
14:21
what's happening事件 here, we'll have military军事 fighters战士
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3000
这里发生了什么,我们将拥有军事战斗机
14:24
with sub-orbital亚轨道 capability能力, and I think very soon不久 this.
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这些战斗机拥有沿亚轨道飞行的能力,我认为这很快就会发生。
14:27
But the interesting有趣 thing about it is the commercial广告 guys are going to go first.
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但有趣的是,商业飞行器现具有这种能力。
14:31
OK, I look forward前锋 to a new "capitalist's资本主义的 space空间 race种族," let's call it.
220
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好,我期待一场新的资本主义太空竞赛,让我们呼唤它。
14:37
You remember记得 the space空间 race种族 in the '60s was for national国民 prestige声望,
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你们还记得60年代的太空竞赛是为了国家的声誉,
14:41
because we lost丢失 the first two milestones里程碑.
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因为我们丢失了最初的两个里程碑。
14:44
We didn't lose失去 them technically技术上. The fact事实 that we had the hardware硬件
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我们不是因为技术而丢失了它们。事实是我们有硬件
14:48
to put something in orbit轨道 when we let Von Braun布劳恩 fly it --
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当我们让冯 布劳恩飞行时,我们能够把一些东西送上轨道,
14:53
you can argue争论 that's not a technical技术 loss失利.
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你可以认为那不是科技的失败。
14:55
Sputnik人造地球卫星 wasn't a technical技术 loss失利, but it was a prestige声望 loss失利.
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史波尼克人造卫星不是科技上的失败,但它有损声誉。
14:59
America美国 -- the world世界 saw America美国 as not being存在 the leader领导 in technology技术,
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美国--世界看到美国不是科技的主宰,
15:06
and that was a very strong强大 thing.
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那时非常重要的事情。
15:08
And then we flew Alan艾伦 Shepherd牧羊人 weeks after Gagarin加加林,
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然后我们在加加林之后几周让艾伦 谢巴德太空飞行,
15:13
not months个月 or decades几十年, or whatever随你. So we had the capability能力.
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不是在几个月或几十年之后,或不管多长时间。所以,我们有能力。
15:18
But America美国 lost丢失. We lost丢失. And because of that, we made制作 a big jump to recover恢复 it.
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但美国失败了,我们失败了。因为那,我们向前跳跃一大步以弥补它。
15:27
Well, again, what's interesting有趣 here is we've我们已经 lost丢失
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那么,再次,有趣的是我们已经输给了
15:30
to the Russians俄罗斯 on the first couple一对 of milestones里程碑 already已经.
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俄国在前两次里程碑前。
15:33
You cannot不能 buy购买 a ticket commercially商业 to fly into space空间 in America美国 --
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在美国,你不能买一张票飞去太空--
15:38
can't do it. You can buy购买 it in Russia俄国.
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不能这么做。你可以在俄国买到票。
15:43
You can fly with Russian俄语 hardware硬件. This is available可得到
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你乘坐俄国的飞行器飞行。这是可以的
15:46
because a Russian俄语 space空间 program程序 is starving挨饿,
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因为苏联的太空计划缺乏资金。
15:49
and it's nice不错 for them to get 20 million百万 here and there to take one of the seats.
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一个座位可以得到两千万美金,对他们来说很不错。
15:54
It's commercial广告. It can be defined定义 as space空间 tourism旅游. They are also offering a trip
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它是商业的。它可被定义为空间旅行。他们也能提供
16:01
to go on this whip鞭子 around the moon月亮, like Apollo阿波罗 8 was doneDONE.
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绕月旅行,像阿波罗八号飞船所做的。
16:05
100 million百万 bucks雄鹿 -- hey, I can go to the moon月亮.
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一亿美金--嘿,我能去月球。
16:08
But, you know, would you have thought back in the '60s,
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但是,你知道,退回到60年代,你会想到这个吗,
16:11
when the space空间 race种族 was going on,
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那时太空竞赛正在继续,
16:13
that the first commercial广告 capitalist-like资本主义样 thing to do
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第一个商业资本家似的事情,像是
16:19
to buy购买 a ticket to go to the moon月亮 would be in Russian俄语 hardware硬件?
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买张票就可以去月球,这会是苏联的硬件设施吗?
16:23
And would you have thought, would the Russians俄罗斯 have thought,
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那时你会想到吗,苏联人会想到吗,
16:26
that when they first go to the moon月亮 in their developed发达 hardware硬件,
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当他们第一次乘坐他们开发的飞船去月球时,
16:30
the guys inside won't惯于 be Russians俄罗斯? Maybe it'll它会 probably大概 be a Japanese日本
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里面的乘客不是俄国人?也许,会是日本的
16:34
or an American美国 billionaire亿万富翁? Well, that's weird奇怪的: you know, it really is.
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或是美国的亿万富翁?好,有点儿奇怪,你知道,但确实如此。
16:38
But anyway无论如何, I think we need to beat击败 them again.
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但无论如何,我想我们需要再次打击他们。
16:42
I think what we'll do is we'll see a successful成功, very successful成功,
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我认为我们要做的会让我们看到成功的,非常成功的
16:49
private私人的 space空间 flight飞行 industry行业. Whether是否 we're first or not really doesn't matter.
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私人太空飞船行业。无论我们是否是第一个真的并不重要。
16:54
The Russians俄罗斯 actually其实 flew a supersonic超音 transport运输 before the Concorde协和.
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苏联人实际上在飞协和式飞机前就飞过超音速飞机。
17:00
And then they flew a few少数 cargo货物 flights航班, and took it out of service服务.
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他们飞过一些货物航班,然后退役。
17:04
I think you kind of see the same相同 kind of parallel平行
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我想你们见到过相同的平行
17:07
when the commercial广告 stuff东东 is offered提供.
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当提供商业活动时。
17:11
OK, we'll talk just a little bit about commercial广告 development发展 for human人的 space空间 flight飞行.
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好,我们就谈论一点儿人类太空飞行的商业发展。
17:15
This little thing says here: five times
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这张小投影片说飞了五次
17:17
what NASA's美国航空航天局 doing by 2020. I want to tell you, already已经
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这是美国国家宇航局到2020年做的。我想要告诉你,已经
17:25
there's about 1.5 billion十亿 to 1.7 billion十亿
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有大约十点五亿至十点七亿
17:29
investment投资 in private私人的 space空间 flight飞行 that is not government政府 at all --
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投资用于私人太空飞行,这些投资完全不是来自政府;
17:35
already已经, worldwide全世界. If you read -- if you Google谷歌 it,
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而是来自全世界。如果你读到它--如果你搜索一下它,
17:40
you'll你会 find about half of that money, but there's twice两次 of that
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你会发现一半的资金,但有两倍
17:43
being存在 committed提交 out there -- not spent花费 yet然而, but being存在 committed提交
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正准备投入那里的资金--还没有花,但正准备投入
17:47
and planned计划 for the next下一个 few少数 years年份. Hey, that's pretty漂亮 big.
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计划到未来几年。嘿,那数目非常大。
17:50
I'm predicting预测, though虽然, as profitable有利可图 as this industry行业 is going to be --
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我正在预测,尽管,这个工业的收益会很客观
17:55
and it certainly当然 is profitable有利可图 when you fly people at 200,000 dollars美元
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并且它确实是收益的,当你花200000美元让你的朋友乘飞船旅行时
17:59
on something that you can actually其实 operate操作 at a tenth第十 of that cost成本,
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事实上你可以只花费十分之一,
18:03
or less -- this is going to be very profitable有利可图.
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或更少--这收入会非常客观。
18:07
I predict预测, also, that the investment投资 that will flow into this
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我还预测,会注入此项事业的投资
18:10
will be somewhere某处 around half of what the U.S. taxpayer纳税人
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将会有相当于美国税收的一半之多
18:14
spends for NASA's美国航空航天局 manned载人 spacecraft宇宙飞船 work.
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这些投资会用于美国国家宇航局的人造宇宙飞船工作。
18:18
And every一切 dollar美元 that flows流动 into that will be spent花费 more efficiently有效率的
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注入此项事业的每一美元都会被更有效地利用
18:23
by a factor因子 of 10 to 15. And what that means手段 is before we know it,
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大约相差10到15。这意味着在我们之前就知道,
18:31
the progress进展 in human人的 space空间 flight飞行, with no taxpayer纳税人 dollars美元,
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人类太空飞行的进程,没有用纳税人的钱,
18:38
will be at a level水平 of about five times as much
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将会比现在美国国家宇航局的预算多五倍
18:44
as the current当前 NASANASA budgets预算 for human人的 space空间 flight飞行.
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该预算用于人类太空飞行。
18:49
And that is because it's us. It's private私人的 industry行业.
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那是因为是我们。它是私人的行业。
18:57
You should never depend依靠 on the government政府 to do this sort分类 of stuff东东 --
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你从不应该依赖政府去做这种事业--
19:03
and we've我们已经 doneDONE it for a long time. The NACANACA, before NASANASA,
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而且我们已经从事了很长时间。美国航空资讯委员会,在美国国家宇航局之前,
19:06
never developed发达 an airliner客机 and never ran an airline航空公司.
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从未开发过客机,而且从未运营过航空线。
19:10
But NASANASA is developing发展 the space空间 liner衬垫, always has,
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但美国国家宇航局正在开发太空货机,总是拥有
19:14
and runs运行 the only space空间 line线, OK. And we've我们已经 shied回避 away from it
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并且运营这唯一的太空航线,好吧。我们避开它
19:21
because we're afraid害怕 of it. But starting开始 back in June六月 of 2004,
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因为我们害怕它。但是从2004年六月开始,
19:27
when I showed显示 that a little group out there actually其实 can do it,
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当我展示在外太空的一个小组实际上能做到时,
19:32
can get a start开始 with it, everything changed after that time.
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我们能够从它开始,从现在起改变每一件事情。
19:35
OK, thank you very much.
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好吧,非常感谢大家。
19:37
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Eva Sun
Reviewed by Chunlei Chang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism.

Why you should listen

Burt Rutan is widely regarded as one of the world's most important industrial designers, and his prolific contributions to air- and spacecraft design have driven the industry forward for decades. His two companies, Rutan Aircraft Factory and Scaled Composites, have developed and flight-tested more new types of aircraft than the rest of the US industry combined. He has himself designed hundreds of aircraft, including the famous Voyager, which his brother piloted on a record-breaking nine-day nonstop flight around the world. 

Rutan might also be the person to make low-cost space tourism a reality: He's one of the major players promoting entrepreneurial approaches to space exploration, and his collaboration with Virgin Galactic is the most promising of these efforts. SpaceShipTwo, a collaboration between Richard Branson and Rutan completed its first "captive carry" in March of 2010, marking the beginning of the era of commercial space exploration.

Ever the maverick, Rutan is known for both his bold proclamations and his criticism of the aerospace industry. Witness the opening line of his presentation at TED2006: "Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space."

More profile about the speaker
Burt Rutan | Speaker | TED.com