ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.

Why you should listen

David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.

In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.

In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.

In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
 

More profile about the speaker
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2005

David Deutsch: Chemical scum that dream of distant quasars

David Deutsch讲述我们在宇宙中的位置

Filmed:
2,534,562 views

著名科学家David Deutsh将理论物理搁置一旁,而对一个更为急迫的话题展开论述:人类的存续。他表示,解决全球暖化的第一步是承认我们有问题需要解决。
- Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:24
We've我们已经 been told to go out on a limb and say something surprising奇怪.
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主办方要求我们大胆陈述,做到语不惊人死不休。
00:30
So I'll try and do that, but
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因此我会努力达到这一点。但是
00:31
I want to start开始 with two things that everyone大家 already已经 knows知道.
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我想先从大家都知道的两件事说起。
00:38
And the first one, in fact事实, is something that
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第一件事,事实上这是
00:40
has been known已知 for most of recorded记录 history历史.
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从有记录的历史以来就众所周知的事。
00:44
And that is that the planet行星 Earth地球, or the solar太阳能 system系统,
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这就是地球,或者太阳系,
00:49
or our environment环境 or whatever随你,
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或者说我们的环境,或诸如此类,
00:51
is uniquely独特地 suited合适的 to sustain支持 our evolution演化 -- or creation创建, as it used to be thought --
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独一无二地适合维持我们的进化,或者说创造,正如我们之前所理解的一样--
01:01
and our present当下 existence存在, and most important重要, our future未来 survival生存.
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适合我们当下的生存,最重要的是我们未来的生存。
01:08
Nowadays如今 this idea理念 has a dramatic戏剧性 name名称: Spaceship飞船 Earth地球.
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今天这个概念有一个戏剧化的名字:太空船地球。
01:13
And the idea理念 there is that outside the spaceship飞船,
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在这个概念里,太空船之外
01:15
the universe宇宙 is implacablyimplacably hostile敌对,
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宇宙不可调和地充满敌意,
01:18
and inside is all we have, all we depend依靠 on.
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而其内部是我们所赖以生存的一切。
01:22
And we only get the one chance机会: if we mess食堂 up our spaceship飞船,
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我们只有一次机会:如果我们将我们的太空船折腾坏了,
01:25
we've我们已经 got nowhere无处 else其他 to go.
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我们将无处可去。
01:27
Now, the second第二 thing that everyone大家 already已经 knows知道 is that
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第二件大家都知道的事是
01:31
contrary相反 to what was believed相信 for most of human人的 history历史,
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与我们在人类历史中大部分时间所坚信的相反
01:35
human人的 beings众生 are not, in fact事实, the hub枢纽 of existence存在.
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人类事实上并不是存在的中心。
01:41
As Stephen斯蒂芬 Hawking霍金 famously著名 said,
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大家都知道Stephen Hawking说过
01:44
we're just a chemical化学 scum浮渣 on the surface表面 of a typical典型 planet行星
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我们只是存在于一个典型星球表面的一些化学污垢
01:48
that's in orbit轨道 around a typical典型 star,
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这个典型星球环绕着一个典型恒星绕行太空,
01:51
which哪一个 is on the outskirts郊区 of a typical典型 galaxy星系, and so on.
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而这个典型恒星位于一个典型银河系的边缘,以此类推。
01:56
Now the first of those two things that everyone大家 knows知道
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大家都知道的两件事当中的第一件
01:59
is kind of saying that we're at a very un-typicalUN-典型 place地点,
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大概是说我们存在于一个非常不典型的地方,
02:03
uniquely独特地 suited合适的 and so on, and
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独一无二的适合性等,
02:06
the second第二 one is saying that we're at a typical典型 place地点.
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而第二件事却说我们存在于一个典型的地方。
02:09
And especially特别 if you regard看待 these two as deep truths真理 to live生活 by
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尤其是当你将这两件事当作生命中深刻的真理
02:13
and to inform通知 your life decisions决定,
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并以此作为你人生决策的依据,
02:16
then they seem似乎 a little bit to conflict冲突 with each other.
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那么他们似乎彼此有些冲突。
02:23
But that doesn't prevent避免 them from both being存在 completely全然 false. (Laughter笑声)
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但是这也没法改变他们都是彻底错误的这一事实。(观众笑声)
02:29
And they are. So let me start开始 with the second第二 one:
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他们就是错误的。让我从第二件事说起:
02:37
Typical典型. Well -- is this a typical典型 place地点? Well, let's look around, you know,
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典型。让我们看一下--这是一个典型的地方吗?让我们看一下四周,如你所见,
02:43
and look in a random随机 direction方向, and we see a wall, and chemical化学 scum浮渣 -- (Laughter笑声)
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随便超哪个方向望去,我们会看到一堵墙,还有一些化学污垢 -- (观众笑声)
02:51
-- and that's not typical典型 of the universe宇宙 at all.
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-- 而这在宇宙中一点也不典型。
02:56
All you've got to do is go a few少数 hundred miles英里 in that same相同 direction方向 and look back,
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你所要做得是,朝着同一个方向前行数百英里然后往回看,
03:00
and you won't惯于 see any walls墙壁 or chemical化学 scum浮渣 at all --
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你将根本不会看到任何墙或者化学污垢 --
03:04
all you see is a blue蓝色 planet行星. And if you go further进一步 than that,
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你所能看到是一个蓝色星球。如果你继续前行,
03:08
you'll你会 see the sun太阳, the solar太阳能 system系统, and the stars明星 and so on.
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你会看到太阳,太阳系,以及恒星等等。
03:13
But that's still not typical典型 of the universe宇宙, because stars明星 come in galaxies星系.
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然而这在宇宙中仍然不算典型,因为恒星存在于星系中。
03:18
And most places地方 in the universe宇宙, a typical典型 place地点 in the universe宇宙,
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宇宙中的大部分地方,或者说宇宙中一个典型的地方,
03:23
is nowhere无处 near any galaxies星系.
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不是任何靠近星系的地方。
03:25
So let's go out further进一步, till直到 we're outside the galaxy星系, and look back,
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因此我们继续前行,直到我们走出星系,然后再往回看,
03:31
and yeah, there's the huge巨大 galaxy星系 with spiral螺旋 arms武器 laid铺设 out in front面前 of us.
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是的,你会看到巨大的星系,它螺旋形的触手展现在我们面前。
03:35
And at this point we've我们已经 come 100,000 light years年份 from here.
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而到达此地,我们已经跨越了十万光年。
03:42
But we're still nowhere无处 near a typical典型 place地点 in the universe宇宙.
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但是我们仍然一点也没有靠近宇宙中的典型地方。
03:47
To get to a typical典型 place地点,
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要到达典型地方,
03:49
you've got to go 1,000 times as far as that into intergalactic星系间 space空间.
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你需要跨越此距离的1000倍,直到你到达星系与星系中间的地方。
03:56
And so what does that look like? Typical典型.
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那里看上去是什么样子呢?典型的。
03:59
What does a typical典型 place地点 in the universe宇宙 look like?
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那么宇宙中一个典型的地方看上去是怎样的呢?
04:02
Well, at enormous巨大 expense费用, TEDTED has arranged安排 a high-resolution高分辨率 immersion浸没
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在这里,TED不惜代价,给大家安排了一次高清晰的
04:08
virtual虚拟 reality现实 rendering翻译 of intergalactic星系间 space空间
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模拟的星系间空间的真实体验
04:12
-- the view视图 from intergalactic星系间 space空间.
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-- 星系间空间的景观。
04:14
So can we have the lights灯火 off, please, so we can see it?
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请将电灯关闭,我们就可以看到了。
04:22
Well, not quite相当, not quite相当 perfect完善 -- you see, in intergalactic星系间 space空间
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不太准确,不是非常完美 -- 看到了吗?星系间的空间
04:28
-- intergalactic星系间 space空间 is completely全然 dark黑暗, pitch沥青 dark黑暗.
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--星系间的空间是彻底黑暗的,极端地黑暗。♪
04:32
It's so dark黑暗 that if you were to be looking at the nearest最近的 star to you,
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这个空间是如此的黑暗,假使你正盯着离你最近的恒星,
04:40
and that star were to explode爆炸 as a supernova超新星,
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这颗恒星正好发生超新星爆炸,
04:44
and you were to be staring凝视 directly at it at the moment时刻 when its light reached到达 you,
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当光线射到你的时候,假使你正直勾勾地盯着它看,
04:49
you still wouldn't不会 be able能够 to see even a glimmer微光.
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你甚至连微弱的闪光都无法看到。
04:53
That's how big and how dark黑暗 the universe宇宙 is.
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宇宙就是如此的巨大和如此的黑暗。
04:56
And that's despite尽管 the fact事实 that a supernova超新星 is so bright, so brilliant辉煌 an event事件,
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这还没有考虑超新星爆炸的光线是如此强烈和明亮,
05:03
that it would kill you stone dead at a range范围 of several一些 light years年份. (Laughter笑声)
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你在距离它数光年的地方会立马毙命。
05:09
And yet然而 from intergalactic星系间 space空间, it's so far away you wouldn't不会 even see it.
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但是在星系间的空间,它是如此的遥远,你甚至无法看见。
05:13
It's also very cold out there
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那里也非常寒冷
05:16
-- less than three degrees above以上 absolute绝对 zero.
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-- 不超过绝对零度三度。
05:20
And it's very empty. The vacuum真空 there is one million百万 times less dense稠密
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什么都没有。那里真空的浓度比
05:26
than the highest最高 vacuum真空 that our best最好 technology技术 on Earth地球 can currently目前
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目前地球上最好的技术可以产生的真空浓度的100万分之一还要小。
05:29
create创建. So that's how different不同 a typical典型 place地点 is from this place地点.
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所以这就是宇宙里一个典型的地方与这儿如何地不同。
05:37
And that is how un-typicalUN-典型 this place地点 is.
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也就是说我们现在所处的这个地方是如此地不典型。
05:40
So can we have the lights灯火 back on please? Thank you.
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请开灯,谢谢。
05:45
Now how do we know about an environment环境 that's so far away,
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那么我们如何了解距离我们如此遥远的一个环境呢?
05:50
and so different不同, and so alien外侨, from anything we're used to?
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与我们所熟悉的一切相比,它是如此不同,如此陌生。
05:54
Well, the Earth地球 -- our environment环境, in the form形成 of us -- is creating创建 knowledge知识.
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地球 -- 我们的环境,以我们这一形式存在 -- 创造知识。
05:59
Well, what does that mean? Well, look out even further进一步 than we've我们已经 just been --
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这又意味着什么呢?向我们刚去过的地方的更远处望去--
06:04
I mean from here, with a telescope望远镜 -- and you'll你会 see things that look like stars明星.
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我的意思是从这里开始,利用望远镜 -- 你会看到类似恒星的东西。
06:09
They're called "quasars类星体." Quasars类星体 originally本来 meant意味着 quasi-stellar类星体 object目的.
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他们叫做类星体。类星体原意是指类似恒星的物体。
06:14
Which哪一个 means手段 things that look a bit like stars明星. (Laughter笑声) But they're not stars明星.
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也就是说是指看上去有点像恒星的物体。(观众笑声)但是他们不是恒星。
06:19
And we know what they are. Billions数十亿 of years年份 ago, and billions数十亿 of light years年份 away,
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我们已经知道他们是什么了。数十亿年前,数十亿光年之外,
06:27
the material材料 at the center中央 of a galaxy星系 collapsed倒塌 towards a
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一个星系中心的物质朝着
06:31
super-massive超大规模 black黑色 hole.
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一个超级巨大的黑洞塌陷。
06:33
And then intense激烈 magnetic磁性 fields领域 directed针对 some of the energy能源 of
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随后密集的磁场对重力塌陷中的一些能量产生了导向作用。
06:38
that gravitational引力 collapse坍方. And some of the matter,
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其中一些物质,
06:41
back out in the form形成 of tremendous巨大 jets喷气机 which哪一个 illuminated发光的 lobes with the brilliance of
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以巨大的喷射流的形式逃离,照亮了宏伟的太空,
06:46
-- I think it's a trillion suns太阳.
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-- 我认为相当于一千亿个太阳的光亮。
06:52
Now, the physics物理 of the human人的 brain could hardly几乎不 be more unlike不像 the physics物理 of such这样 a jet喷射.
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然而,与这样一个喷射流的物理相比,我们人类大脑的物理大相径庭到极点。
06:58
We couldn't不能 survive生存 for an instant瞬间 in it. Language语言 breaks休息 down
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在这样的环境里,我们连一瞬间都无法生存。
07:02
when trying to describe描述 what it would be like in one of those jets喷气机.
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当我们试着描述那样的喷射流中的状况,语言变得无法表达。
07:06
It would be a bit like experiencing经历 a supernova超新星 explosion爆炸,
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这可能有点像经历一次超新星爆炸,
07:09
but at point-blank直射的 range范围 and for millions百万 of years年份 at a time. (Laughter笑声)
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但是是在零距离接触并且将数百万年的能量集中到同一时间爆发。(观众笑声)
07:16
And yet然而, that jet喷射 happened发生 in precisely恰恰 such这样 a way that billions数十亿 of years年份 later后来,
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但是,这个喷射流发生得如此地精确,以至于数十亿年后
07:24
on the other side of the universe宇宙, some bit of chemical化学 scum浮渣 could accurately准确 describe描述,
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在宇宙的另一端,一些化学污垢可以准确地描述,
07:30
and model模型, and predict预测, and explain说明, above以上 all -- there's your reference参考
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建立模型,并预测和解释,最重要的是 -- 你可以找得到参考
07:36
-- what was happening事件 there, in reality现实.
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-- 现实中曾经发生过的事。
07:41
The one physical物理 system系统, the brain,
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一个物理系统,大脑,
07:43
contains包含 an accurate准确 working加工 model模型 of the other -- the quasar类星体.
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包含了另外一个物理系统的准确工作模型 -- 类星体。
07:47
Not just a superficial image图片 of it, though虽然 it contains包含 that as well,
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不仅仅是一个粗浅的图像,虽然也包含图像,
07:51
but an explanatory解释性 model模型, embodying体现 the same相同 mathematical数学的
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而且还包含解释性的模型,表达同样的数学
07:55
relationships关系 and the same相同 causal因果 structure结构体.
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关系和一样的因果结构。
07:58
Now that is knowledge知识. And if that weren't amazing惊人 enough足够,
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这就是知识。如果这还不够让你惊讶的话,
08:03
the faithfulness忠诚 with which哪一个 the one structure结构体 resembles酷似 the other
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一个结构表达另外一个的准确性
08:07
is increasing增加 with time. That is the growth发展 of knowledge知识.
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正随着时间不断提高。这就是知识的增长。
08:12
So, the laws法律 of physics物理 have this special特别 property属性.
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因此,物理规律拥有这样一个特殊的性质。
08:15
That physical物理 objects对象, as unlike不像 each other as they could possibly或者 be,
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物体,不管他们彼此多么相异,
08:20
can nevertheless虽然 embody体现 the same相同 mathematical数学的 and causal因果 structure结构体
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却仍然能够表现同样的数学和因果结构,
08:25
and to do it more and more so over time.
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而且随着时间增长表现得越来越多。
08:29
So we are a chemical化学 scum浮渣 that is different不同. This chemical化学 scum浮渣 has universality普遍性.
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因此我们是与众不同的化学污垢。这一化学污垢拥有普适性。
08:36
Its structure结构体 contains包含, with ever-increasing不断增加 precision精确,
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它的结构准确度越来越高地包容着,
08:40
the structure结构体 of everything. This place地点, and not other places地方 in the universe宇宙,
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世界万物的结构。这个地方,不是宇宙中任何其他地方,
08:45
is a hub枢纽 which哪一个 contains包含 within itself本身 the structural结构 and causal因果 essence本质 of the
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在它自身内部,成为一个包容了其他一切宇宙万物结构性和因果性精髓的中心。
08:52
whole整个 of the rest休息 of physical物理 reality现实. And so, far from being存在 insignificant微不足道,
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因此,意义深远的是,
08:56
the fact事实 that the laws法律 of physics物理 allow允许 this, or even mandate要求 that this can happen发生,
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物理规律允许这一现象,抑或甚至主导了它的发生这一事实
09:02
is one of the most important重要 things about the physical物理 world世界.
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是关于物理世界的最重要的事情之一。
09:07
Now how does the solar太阳能 system系统 -- and our environment环境, in the form形成 of us --
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那么太阳系-- 我们的环境,以我们的形式--
09:13
acquire获得 this special特别 relationship关系 with the rest休息 of the universe宇宙?
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是如何获取这样一个与宇宙其他部分的特殊关系的呢?
09:16
Well, one thing that's true真正 about Stephen斯蒂芬 Hawking's霍金 remark备注 -- I mean, it is true真正,
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Stephen Hawking观点中其中一个正确面--我的意思是,这是正确的,
09:22
but it's the wrong错误 emphasis重点. (Laughter笑声) One thing that's true真正 about it is that
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但是着重点是错的。其中一个正确面是
09:26
it doesn't do it with any special特别 physics物理. There's no special特别 dispensation分配,
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它并没有倚赖任何特殊的物理学。没有特殊的放宽,
09:32
no miracles奇迹 involved参与. It does it simply只是 with three things that we have here in abundance丰富.
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没有奇迹发生。它的发生只依赖于我们现在富有的三种东西。
09:38
One of them is matter, because the growth发展 of knowledge知识 is a form形成 of
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其中一个是物质,因为知识的增长是一种信息处理的形式。
09:43
information信息 processing处理. Information信息 processing处理 is computation计算,
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信息处理需要计算,
09:47
computation计算 requires要求 a computer电脑 --
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计算需要电脑--
09:49
there's no known已知 way of making制造 a computer电脑 without matter.
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现有的知识下不可能不需要物质来制造电脑。
09:52
We also need energy能源 to make the computer电脑, and most important重要,
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我们还需要能量来制造电脑,最重要的是,
09:55
to make the media媒体 in effect影响 onto which哪一个 we record记录 the knowledge知识 that we discover发现.
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要使得用来记录我们所发现知识的媒介工作。
10:01
And then thirdly第三, less tangible有形, but just as essential必要 for the open-ended打开端 creation创建
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第三种东西,较难感触得到,但是在开放式的知识和解释的开发中
10:07
of knowledge知识, of explanations说明, is evidence证据.
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同样关键的是证据。
10:12
Now, our environment环境 is inundated淹没 with evidence证据.
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我们的环境中充满了证据。
10:16
We happen发生 to get round回合 to testing测试, let's say, Newton's牛顿 Law of Gravity重力
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但是我们常常忽略了测试--比如,牛顿的地球引力定律
10:22
about 300 years年份 ago.
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--大约是在300年前提出的。
10:24
But the evidence证据 that we used to do that was falling落下 down on every一切 square广场 meter仪表
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但是我们习以为常的证据,从数十亿年前就在地球上的每个角落里不断坠落,
10:30
of the Earth地球 for billions数十亿 of years年份 before that, and will continue继续 to fall秋季 on for billions数十亿 of years年份
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也会在接下来的数十亿年里继续坠落。
10:35
afterwards之后. And the same相同 is true真正 for all the other sciences科学.
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其他科学也同样如此。
10:39
As far as we know, evidence证据 to discover发现 the most fundamental基本的 truths真理
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就我们所知,发掘所有科学大部分基本真理的证据
10:44
of all the sciences科学 is here just for the taking服用 on our planet行星.
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就在我们的星球上等待我们获取。
10:48
Our location位置 is saturated饱和的 with evidence证据, and also with matter and energy能源.
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我们所在的地方充满了证据,还有物质和能量。
10:54
Out in intergalactic星系间 space空间, those three prerequisites先决条件
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而在星系间的空间中,这三个
10:57
for the open-ended打开端 creation创建 of knowledge知识 are at their lowest最低 possible可能 supply供应.
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创造开放式知识的前提条件存在的可能性极端之小。
11:02
As I said, it's empty; it's cold; and it's dark黑暗 out there. Or is it?
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正如我所说,那里空无一物,寒冷,黑暗。抑或不是如此?
11:08
Now actually其实, that's just another另一个 parochial教区 misconception误解. (Laughter笑声)
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事实上,这只是另外一个狭隘的误解。(观众笑声)
11:13
Because imagine想像 a cube立方体 out there in intergalactic星系间 space空间, the same相同 size尺寸 as
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假想在星系间空间有一个立方体存在,
11:20
our home, the solar太阳能 system系统. Now that cube立方体 is very empty by human人的 standards标准,
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与我们的房屋般大小,太阳系。以我们的标准来看,这个立方体非常空,
11:25
but that still means手段 that it contains包含 over a million百万 tons of matter.
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但是它事实上仍然包含着超过百万吨的物质。
11:30
And a million百万 tons is enough足够 to make, say, a self-contained自足 space空间 station,
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一百万吨足够建造一个,比方说,自给自足的空间站,
11:35
on which哪一个 there's a colony殖民地 of scientists科学家们 that are devoted忠诚 to creating创建 an
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在这个空间站内聚居着一群科学家,他们致力于不断创造
11:39
open-ended打开端 stream of knowledge知识, and so on.
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开放式的知识,等等。
11:42
Now, it's way beyond present当下 technology技术 to even gather收集 the hydrogen
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然而,现在的科技甚至连从星系间空间收集氢气
11:46
from intergalactic星系间 space空间 and form形成 it into other elements分子 and so on.
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和将其转化成别的元素等都远不能做到。
11:51
But the thing is, in a comprehensible理解 universe宇宙,
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但问题是,在一个可理解的宇宙中,
11:55
if something isn't forbidden被禁止 by the laws法律 of physics物理,
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如果某事是物理定律所允许的,
11:58
then what could possibly或者 prevent避免 us from doing it, other than knowing会心 how?
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那么在我们知道如何运作的情况下,什么会妨碍我们去实践它呢?
12:02
In other words, it's a matter of knowledge知识, not resources资源.
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换句话说,这是一个关于知识的问题,而不是关于资源。
12:06
And the same相同 -- well, if we could do that we'd星期三 automatically自动 have an energy能源 supply供应,
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同样,如果我们可以做到的话,那么我们将自动获得能源供给,
12:09
because the transmutation蜕变 would be a fusion聚变 reactor反应堆 -- and evidence证据?
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因为这里的变化将是核反应堆 -- 证据?
12:15
Well, again, it's dark黑暗 out there to human人的 senses感官. But all you've got to do is
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还是一样,对人类的感官来说那里漆黑一片。但是你所需要做的是
12:19
take a telescope望远镜, even one of present-day今天 design设计,
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拿起一个望远镜,甚至是今天的技术设计,
12:22
look out and you'll你会 see the same相同 galaxies星系 as we do from here.
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往外看去,你会看到我们从这儿看到的同样的星系。
12:27
And with a more powerful强大 telescope望远镜, you'll你会 be able能够 to see stars明星, and planets行星.
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如果你有一个更强大的望远镜,你将能看到恒星和行星。
12:31
In those galaxies星系, you'll你会 be able能够 to do astrophysics天体物理学, and learn学习 the laws法律 of physics物理.
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在那些星系里,你可以进行天体物理学研究,了解物理定律。
12:35
And locally本地 there you could build建立 particle粒子 accelerators加速器,
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在你所处的位置,你可以制造粒子加速器,
12:38
and learn学习 elementary初级 particle粒子 physics物理, and chemistry化学, and so on.
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研究初级粒子物理学,化学等。
12:41
Probably大概 the hardest最难 science科学 to do would be biology生物学 field领域 trips旅行 -- (Laughter笑声) -- because it would take
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也许最难做的科学研究是生物学实地考察,因为需要花费
12:48
several一些 hundred million百万 years年份 to get to the nearest最近的 life-bearing寿命轴承 planet行星 and back.
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数百万年才能往返最近的有生命的星球。
12:53
But I have to tell you -- and sorry, Richard理查德 --
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但是我必须告诉你 -- 对不起,Richard --
12:56
but I never did like biology生物学 field领域 trips旅行 much,
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但是我从来都不是那么喜欢生物学实地考察,
12:59
and I think we can just about make do with one every一切 few少数 hundred million百万 years年份.
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我想我们可以每数百万年才进行一次。
13:04
(Laughter笑声)
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(观众笑声)
13:06
So in fact事实, intergalactic星系间 space空间 does contain包含 all the prerequisites先决条件 for the open-ended打开端
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因此事实上,星系间空间并不具备创造开放式知识的前提条件。
13:15
creation创建 of knowledge知识. Any such这样 cube立方体, anywhere随地 in the universe宇宙,
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任何一个这样的立方体,在宇宙中任何地方,
13:19
could become成为 the same相同 kind of hub枢纽 that we are,
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都可以成为跟我们一样的中心,
13:23
if the knowledge知识 of how to do so were present当下 there.
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如果履行这一计划的知识确实存在的话。
13:30
So we're not in a uniquely独特地 hospitable好客 place地点.
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因此我们并不是唯一热情好客的地方。
13:33
If intergalactic星系间 space空间 is capable of creating创建 an open-ended打开端 stream of explanations说明,
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如果星系间空间可以创造出一串开放式的解说,
13:38
then so is almost几乎 every一切 other environment环境. So is the Earth地球. So is a polluted污染 Earth地球.
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那么几乎其它所有的环境都是可以的。地球也一样。被污染的地球也是一样。
13:45
And the limiting限制 factor因子, there and here, is not resources资源, because they're plentiful丰富,
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而限制性因素,这里和那里,不是资源,因为资源很充沛,
13:51
but knowledge知识, which哪一个 is scarce稀缺.
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而是知识,非常匮乏。
13:54
Now this cosmic宇宙的 knowledge-based以知识为基础 view视图 may可能 -- and I think ought应该 to
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这样一个知识型的宇宙观也许 -- 我认为应该
14:00
-- make us feel very special特别. But it should also make us feel vulnerable弱势,
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-- 让我们感觉非常不平凡。但同时也让我们感觉到自己的脆弱,
14:05
because it means手段 that without the specific具体 knowledge知识 that's needed需要 to survive生存
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因为这也意味着如果没有那些必需的具体的知识来帮助我们应对宇宙中
14:09
the ongoing不断的 challenges挑战 of the universe宇宙, we won't惯于 survive生存 them.
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源源不断地挑战,我们将无法生存。
14:13
All it takes is for a supernova超新星 to go off a few少数 light years年份 away, and we'll all be dead!
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仅仅是几光年外的一个超新星爆炸,我们都将必死无疑。
14:18
Martin马丁 Rees里斯 has recently最近 written书面 a book about our vulnerability漏洞 to all sorts排序 of things,
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Martin Rees最近刚写了一本关于我们人类对于所有事物的脆弱性的书,
14:24
from astrophysics天体物理学, to scientific科学 experiments实验 gone走了 wrong错误,
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从天体物理学,到科学实验事故,
14:28
and most importantly重要的 to terrorism恐怖主义 with weapons武器 of mass destruction毁坏.
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还有最重要的拥有大规模杀伤性武器的恐怖主义。
14:32
And he thinks that civilization文明 has only a 50 percent百分 chance机会 of surviving幸存 this century世纪.
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他认为人类文明只有50%的机率可以存活过这个世纪。
14:37
I think he's going to talk about that later后来 in the conference会议.
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我想他晚些时候会在这个会上给大家讲述。
14:41
Now I don't think that probability可能性 is the right category类别 to discuss讨论 this issue问题 in.
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但是我认为这一问题并不适合用机率来描述。
14:47
But I do agree同意 with him about this. We can survive生存, and we can fail失败 to survive生存.
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但是我同意他就此的看法。我们可以生存下去,我们也可能不会存续。
14:54
But it depends依靠 not on chance机会, but on whether是否 we create创建 the relevant相应 knowledge知识 in time.
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但是这并不取决于机率,而是我们是否可以及时创造出相关的知识。
15:00
The danger危险 is not at all unprecedented史无前例. Species种类 go extinct绝种 all the time.
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这种危险肯定不是前所未有的。物种一直都在灭绝。
15:06
Civilizations文明 end结束. The overwhelming压倒 majority多数 of all species种类 and all civilizations文明
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文明也会终止。绝大多数存在过的物种和文明
15:12
that have ever existed存在 are now history历史.
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都以成历史。
15:14
And if we want to be the exception例外 to that, then logically逻辑 our only hope希望
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如果我们想成为例外的话,逻辑上来看我们唯一的希望
15:20
is to make use of the one feature特征 that distinguishes区分 our species种类,
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是利用将我们这个种群和文明与其他物种区别开的这个特征,
15:25
and our civilization文明, from all the others其他 --
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与其他一切都区别开的这个特征。
15:28
namely亦即, our special特别 relationship关系 with the laws法律 of physics物理,
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也就是,我们与物理定律得特殊关系。
15:32
our ability能力 to create创建 new explanations说明, new knowledge知识 -- to be a hub枢纽 of existence存在.
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我们创造新的解释和知识的能力 -- 成为存在的中心。
15:40
So let me now apply应用 this to a current当前 controversy争议,
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让我将此运用到当前的一个论战中,
15:44
not because I want to advocate主张 any particular特定 solution,
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不是因为我想提议任何特定的解决方法,
15:47
but just to illustrate说明 the kind of thing I mean.
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而只是用来阐明我所要讲述的一些事。
15:49
And the controversy争议 is global全球 warming变暖.
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这个论战就是全球暖化。
15:52
Now, I'm a physicist物理学家, but I'm not the right kind of physicist物理学家. In regard看待 to global全球 warming变暖,
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我是一个物理学家,但我并不是此领域的物理学家。就全球暖化来说,
15:57
I'm just a layman外行. And the rational合理的 thing for a layman外行 to do is to take seriously认真地
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我只是个门外汉。对一个门外汉来说理智的做法是
16:03
the prevailing优势 scientific科学 theory理论. And according根据 to that theory理论,
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严肃对待权威的科学理论。而根据这一理论,
16:08
it's already已经 too late晚了 to avoid避免 a disaster灾害.
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已经太晚了,灾难在所难免。
16:11
Because if it's true真正 that our best最好 option选项 at the moment时刻 is to prevent避免 COCO2 emissions排放
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因为,如果我们目前最好的选择是阻止二氧化碳排放的话,
16:17
with something like the Kyoto京都 Protocol协议, with its constraints限制 on economic经济 activity活动
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例如通过东京议定书之类的,限制经济活动,
16:21
and its enormous巨大 cost成本 of hundreds数以百计 of billions数十亿 of dollars美元 or whatever随你 it is,
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以及花费千亿美元等巨大的代价,
16:25
then that is already已经 a disaster灾害 by any reasonable合理 measure测量.
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那么不管如何衡量,这就已经是一个灾难了。
16:30
And the actions行动 that are advocated主张 are not even purported声称 to solve解决 the problem问题,
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倡议的行动甚至都不是为解决问题,
16:35
merely仅仅 to postpone推迟 it by a little. So it's already已经 too late晚了 to avoid避免 it, and it
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而只是稍微推迟灾难的到来。因此灾难在所难免,一切都已晚,
16:40
probably大概 has been too late晚了 to avoid避免 it ever since以来 before anyone任何人 realized实现 the danger危险.
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或在所有人意识到这个危险之前就已经太晚了。
16:46
It was probably大概 already已经 too late晚了 in the 1970s,
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上世纪70年代的时候也许就已经太晚了,
16:50
when the best最好 available可得到 scientific科学 theory理论 was telling告诉 us that industrial产业 emissions排放
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那时候最先进的科学理论告诉我们工业排放
16:54
were about to precipitate沉淀 a new ice age年龄 in which哪一个 billions数十亿 would die.
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将促成一个新的冰河世纪,数十亿的人类将从此灭亡。
16:59
Now the lesson of that seems似乎 clear明确 to me,
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这一教训对我来说清晰可见,
17:02
and I don't know why it isn't informing通知 public上市 debate辩论.
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我不明白为什么它没有传达至公众辩论。
17:05
It is that we can't always know. When we know of an impending即将到来的 disaster灾害,
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事实是我们不可能永远知道。当我们知道有一个灾难将要降临,
17:11
and how to solve解决 it at a cost成本 less than the cost成本 of the disaster灾害 itself本身,
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应对这个灾难的成本要比灾难本身小,
17:16
then there's not going to be much argument论据, really.
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那么就真的没有什么好争论的。
17:18
But no precautions注意事项, and no precautionary预防 principle原理,
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但是没有任何预防措施,或者预防原则
17:23
can avoid避免 problems问题 that we do not yet然而 foresee预料.
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可以帮助我们避免我们还没有预测到的问题。
17:27
Hence于是, we need a stance姿态 of problem-fixing问题的固定, not just problem-avoidance问题避税.
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因此我们需要准备好去解决问题,而不仅仅是避免问题。
17:36
And it's true真正 that an ounce盎司 of prevention预防 equals等于 a pound of cure治愈,
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一盎司的预防等于一盎司的解决,这是事实,
17:39
but that's only if we know what to prevent避免.
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但是这只是在我们知道预防什么的情况下。
17:42
If you've been punched on the nose鼻子, then the science科学 of medicine医学 does not
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如果你的鼻子被打了一拳,医学不会教你
17:46
consist组成 of teaching教学 you how to avoid避免 punches. (Laughter笑声)
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如何闪躲拳头。
17:50
If medical science科学 stopped停止 seeking cures治愈 and concentrated集中 on prevention预防 only,
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如果医学不再研究治病的方法,而是仅仅研究预防,
17:55
then it would achieve实现 very little of either.
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那么它将几乎一事无成。
17:58
The world世界 is buzzing余音绕梁 at the moment时刻 with plans计划 to force reductions减少
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目前整个世界都在不计成本地忙着计划来促成
18:02
in gas加油站 emissions排放 at all costs成本.
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气体排放量的减少。
18:04
It ought应该 to be buzzing余音绕梁 with plans计划 to reduce减少 the temperature温度,
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而它应该赶紧计划如何降低温度,
18:09
and with plans计划 to live生活 at the higher更高 temperature温度 --
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以及计划如何在温度升高之后如何生存。
18:12
and not at all costs成本, but efficiently有效率的 and cheaply廉价地. And some such这样 plans计划 exist存在,
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不是不计成本,而是有效地、廉价的计划。而这样的一些计划已经存在了,
18:17
things like swarms成群 of mirrors镜子 in space空间 to deflect打歪 the sunlight阳光 away,
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比如在太空中放置大批镜子来将太阳光反射出去,
18:21
and encouraging鼓舞人心的 aquatic organisms生物 to eat more carbon dioxide二氧化碳.
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以及刺激海洋生物消费更多的二氧化碳。
18:25
At the moment时刻, these things are fringe边缘 research研究.
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而目前,这些都只是边缘研究。
18:28
They're not central中央 to the human人的 effort功夫 to face面对 this problem问题, or problems问题 in general一般.
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人类在应对这个问题或者广义上来说这些问题的时候,它们起不到核心作用。
18:34
And with problems问题 that we are not aware知道的 of yet然而, the ability能力 to put right --
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对于我们并未知觉的问题,纠错的能力 --
18:39
not the sheer绝对 good luck运气 of avoiding避免 indefinitely无限期 -- is our only hope希望,
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不是无限期的躲过期发生的绝对好运 -- 是我们唯一的希望,
18:44
not just of solving problems问题, but of survival生存.
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不仅仅是为解决问题,而是为生存。
18:48
So take two stone tablets平板电脑, and carve雕刻 on them.
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我们应该拿起两块石碑,在上边刻上铭文。
18:55
On one of them, carve雕刻: "Problems问题 are soluble易溶."
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其中一块刻上”问题是可以解决的“。
19:00
And on the other one carve雕刻: "Problems问题 are inevitable必然."
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另外一块刻上”问题是不可避免的“。
19:04
Thank you. (Applause掌声)
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谢谢。(观众鼓掌)
Translated by Juncheng Sun
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.

Why you should listen

David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.

In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.

In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.

In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
 

More profile about the speaker
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com