ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TED@State

Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset

汉斯罗素林:让我来数据化你的心态

Filmed:
1,816,065 views

在这个夏天里的美国国家部门的演讲里,汉斯罗素林用他的神奇的泡泡数据来打破了对发展中国家的误解。一个混合了传统数据演讲和中国以及后救助世界的新的分析。
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to talk about your mindset心态.
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我会来谈谈你们的心态。
00:20
Does your mindset心态 correspond对应 to my dataset数据集?
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看看你们的心态和我的数据是相符合的吗?
00:24
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
00:25
If not, one or the other needs需求 upgrading升级, isn't it?
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如果不是,其中的一个就需要升级了,对吗?
00:28
When I talk to my students学生们 about global全球 issues问题,
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当我和我的学生在谈论全球问题时,
00:32
and I listen to them in the coffee咖啡 break打破,
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我是在喝咖啡的时候听他们谈论的。
00:34
they always talk about "we" and "them."
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他们经常会谈论“我们”和“他们”。
00:37
And when they come back into the lecture演讲 room房间
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然后当他们回到上课的地方的时候,
00:40
I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?
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我问他们,“你们说‘我们’和‘他们’是什么意思”?
00:42
"Oh, it's very easy简单. It's the western西 world世界 and it's the developing发展 world世界," they say.
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“啊,那很简单,就是西方世界和发展中国家”,他们说到。
00:45
"We learned学到了 it in college学院."
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“我们在大学里学到的。”
00:47
And what is the definition定义 then? "The definition定义?
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那定义是什么呢?“定义?
00:49
Everyone大家 knows知道," they say.
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每个人都知道,”他们说到,
00:51
But then you know, I press them like this.
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但是你知道,我向这样给他们施加压力。
00:53
So one girl女孩 said, very cleverly巧妙, "It's very easy简单.
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所以,一个女孩说到,十分聪明的,“这很简单。
00:55
Western西 world世界 is a long life in a small family家庭.
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西方国家是在一个小家庭里拥有较长的寿命。
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Developing发展 world世界 is a short life in a large family家庭."
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发展中国家是在一个大家庭里有较短的寿命。“
01:01
And I like that definition定义, because it enabled启用 me
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我喜欢这样的定义因为这让我可以去
01:04
to transfer转让 their mindset心态
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将他们的心态转换
01:06
into the dataset数据集.
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到我的数据中。
01:08
And here you have the dataset数据集.
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这里你有数据。
01:10
So, you can see that what we have on this axis here
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你可以看到这个坐标轴代表着
01:12
is size尺寸 of family家庭. One, two, three, four, five
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家庭的大小。每个妇女有一,二,三,四,五
01:15
children孩子 per woman女人 on this axis.
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个小孩在这个坐标轴上。
01:17
And here, length长度 of life, life expectancy期待,
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在这里,是生命的长度,预期寿命,
01:19
30, 40, 50.
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30、40、50.
01:21
Exactly究竟 what the students学生们 said was their concept概念 about the world世界.
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这就正是我的学生概念中的世界。
01:25
And really this is about the bedroom卧室.
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而这也和卧室有关。
01:27
Whether是否 the man and woman女人 decide决定 to have small family家庭,
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男人和女人决定他们是否创造一个小的家庭,
01:31
and take care关心 of their kids孩子, and how long they will live生活.
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是否去照顾他们的孩子,以及他们的寿命长短。
01:34
It's about the bathroom浴室 and the kitchen厨房. If you have soap肥皂, water and food餐饮, you know,
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是和卧室和厨房有关。如果你有肥皂,水和食物,你知道,
01:38
you can live生活 long.
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你可以活的长点。
01:40
And the students学生们 were right. It wasn't that the world世界 consisted --
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学生们是对的。这不是世界所包括的--
01:42
the world世界 consisted here, of one set of countries国家 over here,
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世界所包括的在这里,一组在这里的国家,
01:46
which哪一个 had large families家庭 and short life. Developing发展 world世界.
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他们有较大的家庭和较短的寿命。发展中国家。
01:50
And we had one set of countries国家 up there
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然后我们在这上面有一组国家
01:53
which哪一个 was the western西 world世界.
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是西方国家。
01:55
They had small families家庭 and long life.
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他们有较小的家庭和较长的寿命。
01:58
And you are going to see here
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然后你会看到在这里
02:00
the amazing惊人 thing that has happened发生 in the world世界 during my lifetime一生.
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发生的奇妙的事情,那就是在这个世界上在我有生之年发生的。
02:04
Then the developing发展 countries国家 applied应用的
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发展中国家应用了
02:06
soap肥皂 and water, vaccination疫苗接种.
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肥皂和水,疫苗。
02:08
And all the developing发展 world世界 started开始 to apply应用 family家庭 planning规划.
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以及所有的发展中国家都应用了家庭计划。
02:11
And partly部分地 to USA美国 who help to provide提供
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美国也一部分的参与帮助去提供
02:13
technical技术 advice忠告 and investment投资.
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技术建议和投资。
02:16
And you see all the world世界 moves移动 over to a two child儿童 family家庭,
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而且你可以看到世界上所有的家庭都向两个小孩移去,
02:20
and a life with 60 to 70 years年份.
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也向60到70的寿命移去。
02:23
But some countries国家 remain back in this area here.
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但是有些国家还是在原来这里的地方。
02:26
And you can see we still have Afghanistan阿富汗 down here.
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然后你可以看到阿富汗还是在那底下。
02:29
We have Liberia利比里亚. We have Congo刚果.
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我们还有黎巴嫩。有刚果。
02:32
So we have countries国家 living活的 there.
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所以我们还有国家生活在那里。
02:34
So the problem问题 I had
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所以我的问题是
02:36
is that the worldview世界观 that my students学生们 had
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我学生所有的世界观
02:40
corresponds对应 to reality现实 in the world世界
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还停留在他们老师所
02:42
the year their teachers教师 were born天生.
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出生的年代。
02:45
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
02:48
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
02:51
And we, in fact事实, when we have played发挥 this over the world世界.
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当我们,实际上,我们已经在全世界展示了这个。
02:54
I was at the Global全球 Health健康 Conference会议 here in Washington华盛顿 last week,
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上个星期,我在华盛顿的世界健康会议上,
02:57
and I could see the wrong错误 concept概念
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而且我可以看到,甚至是在美国活跃人物上
03:00
even active活性 people in United联合的 States状态 had,
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都有这样的错误的概念。
03:03
that they didn't realize实现 the improvement起色
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他们没有意识到墨西哥,中国
03:06
of Mexico墨西哥 there, and China中国, in relation关系 to United联合的 States状态.
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相对与美国的进步。
03:11
Look here when I move移动 them forward前锋.
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看这里,当我把他们向前移动时。
03:13
Here we go.
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开始了。
03:20
They catch抓住 up. There's Mexico墨西哥.
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他们迎头赶上。这是墨西哥。
03:23
It's on par平价 with United联合的 States状态 in these two social社会 dimensions尺寸.
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在这两个社会层面是和美国一样的。
03:26
There was less than five percent百分
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这里要注意的是,
03:28
of the specialists专家 in Global全球 Health健康 that was aware知道的 of this.
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全球健康专家中,只有少于5%的人意识到这一点。
03:31
This great nation国家, Mexico墨西哥,
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这个伟大的国家,墨西哥,
03:33
has the problem问题 that arms武器 are coming未来 from North,
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问题是大量武器来自北方,
03:36
across横过 the borders国界, so they had to stop that,
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穿越边界。所以他们必须制止这一点。
03:38
because they have this strange奇怪 relationship关系 to the United联合的 States状态, you know.
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因为,你知道,他们和美国有的奇怪的关系。
03:42
But if I would change更改 this axis here,
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但是如果我把坐标轴换一下,看,
03:46
I would instead代替 put income收入 per person.
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除了这样做,这里,我会把每个人的收入放上。
03:49
Income收入 per person. I can put that here.
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人均收入。我可以放在这里。
03:52
And we will then see
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然后我们会看到
03:54
a completely全然 different不同 picture图片.
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一个完全不同的图片。
03:56
By the way, I'm teaching教学 you
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顺便说一下,我在教你们
03:58
how to use our website网站, GapminderGapminder World世界,
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怎么使用我们的网站,Gapminder World(代沟提醒世界)。
04:00
while I'm correcting修正 this,
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我为什么会纠正这个?
04:02
because this is a free自由 utility效用 on the net.
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因为这是在网上的一个免费设备。
04:05
And when I now finally最后 got it right,
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而且我终于把它做对了,
04:08
I can go back 200 years年份 in history历史.
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我可以在历史上回去200年。
04:12
And I can find United联合的 States状态 up there.
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这样我可以在上面这里找到美国。
04:16
And I can let the other countries国家 be shown显示.
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而且我可以显示其他的国家。
04:19
And now I have income收入 per person on this axis.
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现在我在这个坐标轴上有人均收入。
04:22
And United联合的 States状态 only had some, one, two thousand dollars美元 at that time.
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美国每个人只有2000美元,在那时。
04:25
And the life expectancy期待 was 35 to 40 years年份,
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而且寿命的期望值是35到40年,
04:29
on par平价 with Afghanistan阿富汗 today今天.
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是和阿富汗的今天一样的。
04:31
And what has happened发生 in the world世界, I will show显示 now.
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我现在马上要展示的,就是世界发生了什么。
04:36
This is instead代替 of studying研究 history历史
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这不是在学习历史
04:38
for one year at university大学.
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而是在大学里的一年。
04:40
You can watch me for one minute分钟 now and you'll你会 see the whole整个 thing.
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你可以看我一分钟,然后你就会看到一切。
04:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
04:45
You can see how the brown棕色 bubbles泡泡, which哪一个 is west西 Europe欧洲,
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你可以看到这些棕色的气泡,是西欧,
04:50
and the yellow黄色 one, which哪一个 is the United联合的 States状态,
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这些黄色的是美国,
04:53
they get richer更丰富 and richer更丰富 and also
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他们是怎样变的越来越富有,
04:55
start开始 to get healthier健康 and healthier健康.
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同时是这样变的越来越健康。
04:57
And this is now 100 years年份 ago,
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现在这个是100年前
04:59
where the rest休息 of the world世界 remains遗迹 behind背后.
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当世界其他的国家都还是落后时。
05:02
Here we come. And that was the influenza流感.
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我们开始了。那就是大流感。
05:07
That's why we are so scared害怕 about flu流感, isn't it?
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那就是我们为什么会这么害怕流感,对吗?
05:10
It's still remembered记得. The fall秋季 of life expectancy期待.
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我们仍然记得。寿命的缩短。
05:13
And then we come up. Not until直到
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然后我们又上升了。直到
05:16
independence独立 started开始.
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我们独立。
05:18
Look here You have China中国 over there,
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看看你在这里有中国,
05:20
you have India印度 over there,
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在那里有印度,
05:22
and this is what has happened发生.
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这就是所发生的。
05:30
Did you note注意 there, that we have Mexico墨西哥 up there?
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你可以注意到,我们在这上面有墨西哥。
05:33
Mexico墨西哥 is not at all on par平价 with the United联合的 States状态,
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墨西哥和美国不是完全一样的。
05:35
but they are quite相当 close.
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但是他们是十分接近。
05:37
And especially特别, it's interesting有趣 to see
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而且在这200年里去看看
05:39
China中国 and the United联合的 States状态
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美国和中国
05:41
during 200 years年份,
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是十分有趣的。
05:44
because I have my oldest最老的 son儿子 now working加工 for Google谷歌,
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因为现在我的大儿子在谷歌工作,
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after Google谷歌 acquired后天 this software软件.
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当谷歌收购了这款软件后。
05:49
Because in fact事实, this is child儿童 labor劳动. My son儿子 and his wife妻子 satSAT in a closet壁橱
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因为这时间上是用了童工。我的儿子和妻子在衣橱里
05:52
for many许多 years年份 and developed发达 this.
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花了很多时间来开发这个。
05:54
And my youngest最年轻的 son儿子, who studied研究 Chinese中文 in Beijing北京.
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而我的小儿子,在北京学习中文。
05:58
So they come in with the two perspectives观点 I have, you know?
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所以我有他们的两个不同的观点,你知道?
06:02
And my son儿子, youngest最年轻的 son儿子 who studied研究 in Beijing北京,
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我的儿子,在北京学习的最小的那一个。
06:04
in China中国, he got a long-term长期 perspective透视.
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在中国,他有一个长期的观点。
06:08
Whereas when my oldest最老的 son儿子, who works作品 for Google谷歌,
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而在谷歌工作的大儿子,
06:10
he should develop发展 by quarter25美分硬币, or by half-year半年.
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他得在一季度,或半年里开发成功。
06:14
Or Google谷歌 is quite相当 generous慷慨, so he can have one or two years年份 to go.
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或者谷歌是十分大方的,所以他可以有一年或两年。
06:17
But in China中国 they look generation after generation
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但是在中国,你看的是一代又一代的时间
06:19
because they remember记得
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因为他们记得
06:22
the very embarrassing尴尬 period, for 100 years年份,
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那100年十分尴尬的历史,
06:24
when they went backwards向后.
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那时间他们向后退了。
06:26
And then they would remember记得 the first part部分
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而且他们也记得最后一个世纪的
06:29
of last century世纪, which哪一个 was really bad,
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开端是十分不好的。
06:32
and we could go by this so-called所谓 Great Leap飞跃 Forward前锋.
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我们把这叫做大跃进。
06:35
But this was 1963.
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但是在1963年。
06:37
Mao Tse-Tung谢彤 eventually终于 brought health健康 to China中国,
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毛泽东终于把健康带入了中国。
06:41
and then he died死亡, and then Deng Xiaoping小平 started开始
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然后就去世了。然后是邓小平开始
06:43
this amazing惊人 move移动 forward前锋.
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了这奇妙的进步。
06:45
Isn't it strange奇怪 to see that the United联合的 States状态
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难道这不很奇怪吗?看到美国是
06:47
first grew成长 the economy经济, and then gradually逐渐 got rich丰富?
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先开始增加经济,然后慢慢的变富有。
06:51
Whereas China中国 could get healthy健康 much earlier,
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然而中国则先在很早就变的很健康。
06:54
because they applied应用的 the knowledge知识 of education教育, nutrition营养,
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因为他们应用了教育的知识,营养,
06:58
and then also benefits好处 of penicillin青霉素
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他们也同时使用了青霉素
07:01
and vaccines疫苗 and family家庭 planning规划.
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和疫苗,和家庭计划。
07:03
And Asia亚洲 could have social社会 development发展
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这样亚洲是先有的社会发展
07:06
before they got the economic经济 development发展.
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后有了经济发展。
07:09
So to me, as a public上市 health健康 professor教授,
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所以对我来说,一个公共健康教授,
07:11
it's not strange奇怪 that all these countries国家 grow增长 so fast快速 now.
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是不会对这些国家发展的这么快而感到奇怪的。
07:15
Because what you see here, what you see here
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因为你所看到的这里和这里
07:17
is the flat平面 world世界 of Thomas托马斯 Friedman弗里德曼,
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就是托马斯弗里德曼的平面世界。
07:20
isn't it.
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不是吗?
07:22
It's not really, really flat平面.
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这不是真的真的很平。
07:24
But the middle中间 income收入 countries国家 --
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但是那些中等收入国家,
07:26
and this is where I suggest建议 to my students学生们,
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这里我就会向我的同学建议
07:28
stop using运用 the concept概念 "developing发展 world世界."
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停止使用“发展中国家”这个概念。
07:31
Because after all, talking about the developing发展 world世界
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因为毕竟,谈论发展中国家
07:34
is like having two chapters in the history历史 of the United联合的 States状态.
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就好像是把美国历史分两个部分。
07:38
The last chapter章节 is about present当下, and president主席 Obama奥巴马,
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而最后的一个部分是关于这个总统,奥巴马总统。
07:42
and the other is about the past过去,
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另一个部分则是有关过去。
07:44
where you cover everything from Washington华盛顿
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当你把从华盛顿时代
07:46
to Eisenhower艾森豪威尔.
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到艾森豪威尔时代都包括进来。
07:48
Because Washington华盛顿 to Eisenhower艾森豪威尔,
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因为从华盛顿到艾森豪威尔
07:50
that is what we find in the developing发展 world世界.
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这就是我们所谓的发展中国家
07:52
We could actually其实 go to Mayflower五月花
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我们其实可以从五月花时代
07:54
to Eisenhower艾森豪威尔,
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到艾森豪威尔,
07:56
and that would be put together一起 into a developing发展 world世界,
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那就是整个的发展中世界。
07:59
which哪一个 is rightly正当地 growing生长 its cities城市 in a very amazing惊人 way,
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那就是正确的以一个十分奇妙的方法去发展城市。
08:02
which哪一个 have great entrepreneurs企业家,
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那也有企业家,
08:04
but also have the collapsing崩溃 countries国家.
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但是同时我们也有垮掉的国家。
08:07
So, how could we make better sense about this?
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所以我们怎样才能更好的了解这个呢?
08:10
Well, one way of trying is to see whether是否 we could
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恩,其中一个是看看我们能否
08:13
look at income收入 distribution分配.
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观察收入的分布。
08:15
This is the income收入 distribution分配 of peoples人们 in the world世界,
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这是世界人口的收入分布,
08:18
from $1. This is where you have food餐饮 to eat.
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从1美元开始。这是你开始有食物可以吃的地方。
08:21
These people go to bed hungry饥饿.
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这些人是饿着睡觉的。
08:23
And this is the number of people.
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这是这些人的数量。
08:25
This is $10, whether是否 you have a public上市 or a private私人的
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这是10美元,不管你有公共的或
08:27
health健康 service服务 system系统. This is where you can
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私人的健康系统。这是你可以开始
08:29
provide提供 health健康 service服务 for your family家庭 and school学校 for your children孩子,
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为你的家庭提供将康服务,为你的儿童提供学校的地方。
08:32
and this is OECD经合组织 countries国家:
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这是经合组织国家。
08:34
Green绿色, Latin拉丁 America美国, East Europe欧洲.
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绿色的是,拉丁美洲,东欧。
08:36
This is East Asia亚洲, and the light blue蓝色 there is South Asia亚洲.
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这是东亚。南亚是这个浅蓝色。
08:40
And this is how the world世界 changed.
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而这是世界上这样变化的。
08:43
It changed like this.
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它像这样发生了变化。
08:45
Can you see how it's growing生长? And how hundreds数以百计 of millions百万
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你可以看到是怎样增长的吗?看到那数以万亿的收入
08:48
and billions数十亿 is coming未来 out of poverty贫穷 in Asia亚洲?
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是这样进入到贫穷的亚洲的?
08:51
And it goes over here?
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然后它移到这里。
08:53
And I come now, into projections预测,
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这里是我对未来的预测。
08:55
but I have to stop at the door of Lehman雷曼 Brothers兄弟 there, you know, because --
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不过我得在莱曼兄弟这里停下来,因为...
08:58
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
09:01
that's where the projections预测 are not valid有效 any longer.
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因为这些预测都不准了。
09:03
Probably大概 the world世界 will do this.
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大概世界会这样做。
09:05
and then it will continue继续 forward前锋 like this.
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然后它会持续像这样。
09:08
But more or less, this is what will happen发生,
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但是多多少少会这样。
09:10
and we have a world世界 which哪一个 cannot不能 be looked看着 upon as divided分为.
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而且我们有一个不能去分开看的世界。
09:15
We have the high income收入 countries国家 here,
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我们在这有高收入国家,
09:17
with the United联合的 States状态 as a leading领导 power功率;
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美国作为领队。
09:20
we have the emerging新兴 economies经济 in the middle中间,
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我们在中间有新兴经济体,
09:23
which哪一个 provide提供 a lot of the funding资金 for the bailout救助;
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那给我们提供了救助的基础。
09:25
and we have the low income收入 countries国家 here.
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然后我们在这里有低收入的国家。
09:28
Yeah, this is a fact事实 that from where the money comes,
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对,我们的救助的钱的确就是从这些地方来的。
09:31
they have been saving保存, you know, over the last decade.
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在过去十年里,他们一直都在储蓄。
09:33
And here we have the low income收入 countries国家
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而这里我们有低收入国家,
09:35
where entrepreneurs企业家 are.
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那里聚集着大量的企业家。
09:37
And here we have the countries国家 in collapse坍方 and war战争,
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而这里是因战争而垮掉的国家,
09:40
like Afghanistan阿富汗, Somalia索马里, parts部分 of Congo刚果, Darfur达尔富尔.
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像阿富汗,索马里,部分刚果,达尔富尔。
09:45
We have all this at the same相同 time.
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这些都发生在同一时间。
09:47
That's why it's so problematic问题 to describe描述 what has happened发生
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那也就是为什么去描述发展中国家发生了什么
09:49
in the developing发展 world世界.
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是如此的困难。
09:51
Because it's so different不同, what has happened发生 there.
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因为那里所发生的非常不同。
09:53
And that's why I suggest建议
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那也是我为什么会建议
09:55
a slightly different不同 approach途径 of what you would call it.
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我们用另一种态度去看待它。
09:58
And you have huge巨大 differences分歧 within countries国家 also.
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我们在国家间也有巨大的不同。
10:02
I heard听说 that your departments部门 here were by regions地区.
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我听说你们的部门是按地区分的。
10:05
Here you have Sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲, South Asia亚洲,
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这里你有撒哈拉以南非洲,南亚,
10:08
East Asia亚洲, Arab阿拉伯 states状态,
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东亚,阿拉伯国家,
10:10
East Europe欧洲, Latin拉丁 America美国, and OECD经合组织.
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东欧,拉丁美洲和经合组织。
10:12
And on this axis, GDPGDP.
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这里是代表GDP的坐标轴。
10:14
And on this, heath健康, child儿童 survival生存,
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这里是健康和儿童存活率。
10:16
and it doesn't come as a surprise
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而且这一点也不让人吃惊
10:18
that Africa非洲 south of Sahara撒哈拉 is at the bottom底部.
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在非洲,沙哈拉南部,在底端。
10:21
But when I split分裂 it, when I split分裂 it
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但是当我把他们分开,当我把他们分成
10:23
into country国家 bubbles泡泡,
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国家的气泡是,
10:25
the size尺寸 of the bubbles泡泡 here is the population人口.
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这里气泡的大小的人口。
10:28
Then you see Sierra内华达 Leone塞拉利昂 and Mauritius毛里求斯, completely全然 different不同.
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你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不一样的。
10:31
There is such这样 a difference区别 within Sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
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这里在撒哈拉以南非洲有很大的不同。
10:33
And I can split分裂 the others其他. Here is the South Asian亚洲,
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当我把其他的也分开是。东亚,
10:36
Arab阿拉伯 world世界.
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阿拉伯世界。
10:38
Now all your different不同 departments部门.
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你现在在不同的地区都有不同。
10:40
East Europe欧洲, Latin拉丁 America美国, and OECD经合组织 countries国家.
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东欧,拉丁美洲,和经合组织国家。
10:43
And here were are. We have a continuum连续 in the world世界.
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我们在这里。我们有一个连续的世界。
10:46
We cannot不能 put it into two parts部分.
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我们不能分成连个部分。
10:48
It is Mayflower五月花 down here. It is Washington华盛顿 here,
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这是五月花时代。这是华盛顿时代,
10:51
building建造, building建造 countries国家.
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建造国家。
10:53
It's Lincoln林肯 here, advancing前进 them.
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这是林肯,在升级他们。
10:57
It's Eisenhower艾森豪威尔 bringing使 modernity现代 into the countries国家.
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这是艾森豪威尔将现代化带入了国家。
11:00
And then it's United联合的 States状态 today今天, up here.
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然后这是今天的美国,在这里上面。
11:02
And we have countries国家 all this way.
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我们是这样创造了国家。
11:04
Now, this is the important重要 thing
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现在是了解世界怎样
11:07
of understanding理解 how the world世界 has changed.
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变化的关键。
11:11
At this point I decided决定 to make a pause暂停.
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在这里我觉得我需要做一个发言。
11:15
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
11:17
And it is my task任务, on behalf代表 of the rest休息 of the world世界,
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这就是我的任务,代表这世界其他国家,
11:20
to convey传达 a thanks谢谢 to the U.S. taxpayers纳税人,
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来为美国的纳税人争取一个谢谢,
11:24
for Demographic人口 Health健康 Survey调查.
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为了人口健康调查所做的贡献。
11:26
Many许多 are not aware知道的 of -- no, this is not a joke玩笑.
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许多人还没有意识到 -- 不这不是玩笑。
11:29
This is very serious严重.
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这很严肃。
11:31
It is due应有 to USA's我们作为 continuous连续 sponsoring赞助
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在这25年里,依靠
11:35
during 25 years年份 of the very good methodology方法
247
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美国的资助,我们有一个
11:38
for measuring测量 child儿童 mortality死亡
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非常好的测量儿童死亡率的方法,
11:40
that we have a grasp把握 of what's happening事件 in the world世界.
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这让我们对世界所发生的事情有一个把握。
11:43
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
11:50
And it is U.S. government政府 at its best最好,
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而这个美国政府,正在做最大的努力
11:53
without advocacy拥护, providing提供 facts事实,
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没有宣传,去提供一些
11:56
that it's useful有用 for the society社会.
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对社会有用的事实。
11:58
And providing提供 data数据 free自由 of charge收费
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也在因特网上提供免费的数据
12:01
on the internet互联网, for the world世界 to use. Thank you very much.
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供世界享用。十分感谢你。
12:04
Quite相当 the opposite对面 of the World世界 Bank银行,
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世界银行则是在十分的对立面,
12:06
who compiled编译 data数据 with government政府 money,
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用政府和税收的钱来编译数据,
12:09
tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit利润,
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然后又加入一点利润将他们出售,
12:12
in a very inefficient低效, Gutenberg古滕贝格 way.
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通过十分没有效率的,古滕贝格的方式。
12:15
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
12:21
But the people doing that at the World世界 Bank银行
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但是那些在世界银行所工作的人
12:23
are among其中 the best最好 in the world世界.
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都是世界上最优秀的。
12:25
And they are highly高度 skilled技能的 professionals专业人士.
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他们在他们的范围内都是专家。
12:27
It's just that we would like to upgrade升级 our international国际 agencies机构
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只是我们希望我们能升级我们的国际方案
12:31
to deal合同 with the world世界 in the modern现代 way, as we do.
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去以现代的方法来处理国际问题,就在我们处理的时候。
12:34
And when it comes to free自由 data数据 and transparency透明度,
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当这遇到免费和透明的数据时,
12:37
United联合的 States状态 of America美国 is one of the best最好.
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美国是最好之一。
12:40
And that doesn't come easy简单 from the mouth of a Swedish瑞典 public上市 health健康 professor教授.
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而且这不仅仅是从瑞典公共健康教授的口中说出。
12:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
12:46
And I'm not paid支付 to come here, no.
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我不是为钱来到这的,不是。
12:49
I would like to show显示 you what happens发生 with the data数据,
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我是想来给你们展示数据上发生了什么,
12:51
what we can show显示 with this data数据.
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以及我们可以用这些数据来展示什么。
12:53
Look here. This is the world世界.
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看这里,这是世界。
12:55
With income收入 down there and child儿童 mortality死亡.
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收入在这里,然后儿童死亡率。
12:57
And what has happened发生 in the world世界?
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世界发生了什么?
12:59
Since以来 1950, during the last 50 years年份
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自从1950年,到过去50年里
13:02
we have had a fall秋季 in child儿童 mortality死亡.
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儿童死亡率有一个下降。
13:05
And it is the DHSDHS that makes品牌 it possible可能 to know this.
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这是靠国家安全局才知道的。
13:07
And we had an increase增加 in income收入.
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我们在收入上有一个增加。
13:09
And the blue蓝色 former前任的 developing发展 countries国家
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这些蓝色的发展中国家
13:11
are mixing混合 up with the former前任的 industrialized工业化 western西 world世界.
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和前工业化国家混合在一起。
13:16
We have a continuum连续. But we still have, of course课程,
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然后我们继续。但是我们这里还有,那就是,当然了
13:19
Congo刚果, up there. We still have as poor较差的 countries国家
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刚果在上面这里。我们还有以前的
13:22
as we have had, always, in history历史.
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一些贫穷国家,在历史上。
13:26
And that's the bottom底部 billion十亿, where we've我们已经 heard听说 today今天
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最底层的一亿人口,就如我们当今所听说的一样,
13:29
about a completely全然 new approach途径 to do it.
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急需一个新的解决方案。
13:32
And how fast快速 has this happened发生?
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这一切发生得有多快呢?
13:35
Well, MDG千年发展目标 4.
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好吧,第4个千年发展目标。
13:37
The United联合的 States状态 has not been so eager急于
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美国政府还不是那么急于
13:39
to use MDG千年发展目标 4.
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使用第4个千年发展目标。
13:42
But you have been the main主要 sponsor赞助 that has enabled启用 us to measure测量 it,
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但是你们那些重要赞助商让我们可以去测量它。
13:45
because it's the only child儿童 mortality死亡 that we can measure测量.
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因为那是我们唯一可以测量的儿童死亡率。
13:48
And we used to say that it should fall秋季 four percent百分 per year.
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我们经常会说每年会下降4个百分点。
13:51
Let's see what Sweden瑞典 has doneDONE.
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让我们来看看瑞典做了什么。
13:53
We used to boast about fast快速 social社会 progress进展.
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我们曾经吹嘘快速的社会进步。
13:56
That's where we were, 1900.
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我们是在,1990.
13:58
1900, Sweden瑞典 was there.
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1990年,瑞典在那里。
14:00
Same相同 child儿童 mortality死亡 as Bangladesh孟加拉国 had, 1990,
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和孟加拉国一样的儿童死亡率,1990.
14:02
though虽然 they had lower降低 income收入.
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尽管他们是低收入国家。
14:04
They started开始 very well. They used the aid援助 well.
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他们开端不错,他们充分利用国外援助。
14:07
They vaccinated接种疫苗 the kids孩子. They get better water.
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他们给小孩提供疫苗。他们有更好的水源。
14:09
And they reduced减少 child儿童 mortality死亡,
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而且他们降低了儿童死亡率,
14:11
with an amazing惊人 4.7 percent百分 per year. They beat击败 Sweden瑞典.
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以每年4.7个百分点。他们打败了瑞典。
14:14
I run Sweden瑞典 the same相同 16 year period.
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在接下来的16年里瑞典还是一样。
14:18
Second第二 round回合, it's Sweden瑞典, 1916,
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第二轮,瑞典在1960
14:20
against反对 Egypt埃及, 1990.
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对抗1990的埃及。
14:22
Here we go. Once一旦 again the USA美国 is part部分 of the reason原因 here.
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开始。再一次,美国在这里有一部分原因。
14:25
They get safe安全 water, they get food餐饮 for the poor较差的,
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他们有更安全的水,他们给穷人提供食物。
14:29
and they get malaria疟疾 eradicated根除.
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他们根除了疟疾。
14:31
5.5 percent百分. They are faster更快 than the millennium千年 development发展 goal目标.
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5.5个百分点。他们比千年发展目标要快。
14:34
And third第三 chance机会 for Sweden瑞典, against反对 Brazil巴西 here.
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这是瑞典的第三个机会,对抗这里的巴西。
14:37
Brazil巴西 here has amazing惊人 social社会 improvement起色
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这里的巴西在过去16年里
14:41
over the last 16 years年份,
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有着奇妙的社会进步.
14:43
and they go faster更快 than Sweden瑞典.
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而且他们比瑞典要快。
14:45
This means手段 that the world世界 is converging收敛.
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那就意味这世界在一体化。
14:47
The middle中间 income收入 countries国家,
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中等收入国家,
14:49
the emerging新兴 economy经济, they are catching up.
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那些新兴经济体,他们在赶上来。
14:51
They are moving移动 to cities城市,
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他们向城市发展,
14:53
where they also get better assistance帮助 for that.
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那里他们可以等到更好的帮助。
14:55
Well the Swedish瑞典 students学生们 protest抗议 at this point.
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这时瑞典人在抗议。
14:58
They say, "This is not fair公平,
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他们说到,“”这不公平,
15:00
because these countries国家 had vaccines疫苗 and antibiotics抗生素
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因为这些国家有疫苗和抗生素,
15:02
that were not available可得到 for Sweden瑞典.
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那时的瑞典还没有。
15:04
We have to do real-time即时的 competition竞争."
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我们必须做一次同时间的竞赛。”
15:06
Okay. I give you Singapore新加坡, the year I was born天生.
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好,我这里有新加坡,我出生的那一年。
15:09
Singapore新加坡 had twice两次 the child儿童 mortality死亡 of Sweden瑞典.
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新加坡的儿童死亡率是瑞典的两倍。
15:11
It's the most tropical热带 country国家 in the world世界,
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那是世界上最热带的国家。
15:13
a marshland江滩 on the equator赤道.
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一个在赤道沼泽地。
15:15
And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent独立.
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开始了。他们独立花了一点时间。
15:18
But then they started开始 to grow增长 their economy经济.
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但是他们开始开展他们的经济。
15:20
And they made制作 the social社会 investment投资. They got away malaria疟疾.
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他们他们开始社会投资。他们摆脱了疟疾。
15:22
They got a magnificent华丽的 health健康 system系统
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他们有了一个非常起眼的健康系统
15:24
that beat击败 both the U.S. and Sweden瑞典.
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那同时打败了美国和瑞典。
15:26
We never thought it would happen发生 that they would win赢得 over Sweden瑞典!
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我们从来没有想到他们会赢瑞典!
15:29
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
15:37
All these green绿色 countries国家 are achieving实现 millennium千年 development发展 goals目标.
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这些绿色国家都在达成着千年发展计划。
15:40
These yellow黄色 are just about to be doing this.
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这些黄色的也正准备着手开始。
15:42
These red are the countries国家 that doesn't do it, and the policy政策 has to be improved改善.
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这些红色的国家则没有做什么,而且他们的政策需要改善。
15:45
Not simplistic简单化 extrapolation外推.
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不是简单的推断。
15:48
We have to really find a way
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我们真的必须找一个能更好的
15:50
of supporting支持 those countries国家 in a better way.
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去支持这些国家的方法。
15:52
We have to respect尊重 the middle中间 income收入 countries国家
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我们必须去尊重这些发展中国家
15:55
on what they are doing.
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所做的事情。
15:57
And we have to fact-base事实基础 the whole整个 way we look at the world世界.
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我们也必须给我们的世界观有一个客观的基础。
16:00
This is dollar美元 per person. This is HIVHIV in the countries国家.
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这是人均收入,这是国家的艾滋病数。
16:03
The blue蓝色 is Africa非洲.
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蓝色的是非洲。
16:05
The size尺寸 of the bubbles泡泡 is how many许多 are HIVHIV affected受影响.
347
949000
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气泡的大小代表着有多少人被艾滋感染。
16:08
You see the tragedy悲剧 in South Africa非洲 there.
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你可以在那看到在南非的悲剧。
16:10
About 20 percent百分 of the adult成人 population人口 are infected感染.
349
954000
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大概有20%的成年人口被感染了。
16:13
And in spite尽管 of them having quite相当 a high income收入,
350
957000
3000
尽管他们有一个很高的收入
16:16
they have a huge巨大 number of HIVHIV infected感染.
351
960000
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他们还是有巨大的被艾滋感染数量。
16:19
But you also see that there are African非洲人 countries国家 down here.
352
963000
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但你也可以看到有一些非洲国家在底下这里。
16:22
There is no such这样 thing as an HIVHIV epidemic疫情 in Africa非洲.
353
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在非洲没有所谓的大规模艾滋流行这样。
16:26
There's a number, five to 10 countries国家 in Africa非洲
354
970000
3000
这里有个数字,非洲的5-10国家
16:29
that has the same相同 level水平 as Sweden瑞典 and United联合的 States状态.
355
973000
3000
有着和瑞典和美国同样的水平。
16:32
And there are others其他 who are extremely非常 high.
356
976000
2000
而这里也有那些数目十分高的国家。
16:34
And I will show显示 you that what has happened发生
357
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3000
而我要来给你们看看
16:37
in one of the best最好 countries国家, with the most vibrant充满活力 economy经济
358
981000
4000
非洲最好的国家之一,拥有着最活跃的经济体
16:41
in Africa非洲 and a good governance治理, Botswana博茨瓦纳.
359
985000
3000
和一个非常好的治理的博茨瓦纳,所发生的一切。
16:44
They have a very high level水平. It's coming未来 down.
360
988000
2000
他们有一个十分高的感染水平。正在下降中。
16:46
But now it's not falling落下,
361
990000
2000
但不是那么剧烈。
16:48
because there, with help from PEPFARPEPFAR,
362
992000
2000
因为那里,正在接受紧急计划(PEPFAR)的帮组
16:50
it's working加工 with treatment治疗. And people are not dying垂死.
363
994000
3000
正在接受治疗。所以受感染的人就不会死亡。
16:53
And you can see it's not that easy简单,
364
997000
3000
就如你看到的,那并不简单。
16:56
that it is war战争 which哪一个 caused造成 this.
365
1000000
3000
那是战争造成这个的。
16:59
Because here, in Congo刚果, there is war战争.
366
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2000
因为这里,在刚果,这里有战争。
17:01
And here, in Zambia赞比亚, there is peace和平.
367
1005000
3000
这里,在赞比亚,这里有和平。
17:04
And it's not the economy经济. Richer更丰富 country国家 has a little higher更高.
368
1008000
3000
但这里没有经济。更富有的国家有更高的水平。
17:07
If I split分裂 Tanzania坦桑尼亚 in its income收入,
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1011000
2000
如果我把坦桑尼亚的收入分开。
17:09
the richer更丰富 20 percent百分 in Tanzania坦桑尼亚
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1013000
2000
坦桑尼亚更富有的20%人
17:11
has more HIVHIV than the poorest最穷 one.
371
1015000
2000
要比贫穷的人感染更多的艾滋。
17:13
And it's really different不同 within each country国家.
372
1017000
3000
而且每个国家都不一样。
17:16
Look at the provinces of Kenya肯尼亚. They are very different不同.
373
1020000
2000
看看肯尼亚的一些省份。他们也十分不同。
17:18
And this is the situation情况 you see.
374
1022000
3000
这就是你所看到的状况。
17:21
It's not deep poverty贫穷. It's the special特别 situation情况,
375
1025000
3000
这不是深度贫穷。这是特殊的情况。
17:24
probably大概 of concurrent同时 sexual有性 partnership合伙
376
1028000
3000
大概是在某些国家,或国家的某些部分里
17:27
among其中 part部分 of the heterosexual异性 population人口
377
1031000
3000
在南非或东非
17:30
in some countries国家, or some parts部分 of countries国家,
378
1034000
2000
在异性恋人口中
17:32
in south and eastern Africa非洲.
379
1036000
2000
多重性伴侣所造成的。
17:34
Don't make it Africa非洲. Don't make it a race种族 issue问题.
380
1038000
3000
不要说是非洲。不要搞的种族问题上。
17:37
Make it a local本地 issue问题. And do prevention预防 at each place地点,
381
1041000
4000
这是地方问题。并在每个地方实行
17:41
in the way it can be doneDONE there.
382
1045000
2000
当地可以接受的预防措施。
17:43
So to just end结束 up,
383
1047000
3000
我要这样来结尾。
17:46
there are things of suffering痛苦
384
1050000
3000
这里有我们所不知道的
17:49
in the one billion十亿 poorest最穷, which哪一个 we don't know.
385
1053000
3000
1亿正在受贫困折磨的人口。
17:52
Those who live生活 beyond the cellphone手机,
386
1056000
2000
那些生活在没有手机,
17:54
those who have yet然而 to see a computer电脑,
387
1058000
2000
或没见过电脑,
17:56
those who have no electricity电力 at home.
388
1060000
3000
或家里没有电能的人。
17:59
This is the disease疾病, KonzoKonzo, I spent花费 20 years年份
389
1063000
2000
这就是叫孔佐(Konzo)的疾病,我花了20年
18:01
elucidating阐明 in Africa非洲.
390
1065000
2000
在非洲来调查。
18:03
It's caused造成 by fast快速 processing处理 of toxic有毒的 cassava木薯 root in famine饥荒 situation情况.
391
1067000
5000
这是因为在饥荒的情况下,快速处理有毒木薯根。
18:08
It's similar类似 to the pellagra糙皮病 epidemic疫情 in Mississippi密西西比州 in the '30s.
392
1072000
4000
这和在30年代密西西比的糙皮病相似。
18:12
It's similar类似 to other nutritional营养 diseases疾病.
393
1076000
3000
这和其他的营养疾病相似。
18:15
It will never affect影响 a rich丰富 person.
394
1079000
2000
它不会感染富有的人。
18:17
We have seen看到 it here in Mozambique莫桑比克.
395
1081000
3000
我们在莫桑比克已经看到了。
18:20
This is the epidemic疫情 in Mozambique莫桑比克. This is an epidemic疫情 in northern北方 Tanzania坦桑尼亚.
396
1084000
3000
这正在莫桑比克流行着。这也在南坦桑尼亚流行着。
18:23
You never heard听说 about the disease疾病.
397
1087000
2000
你从来没有听过这种疾病。
18:25
But it's much more than Ebola埃博拉病毒
398
1089000
2000
但是这比伊波拉所
18:27
that has been affected受影响 by this disease疾病.
399
1091000
2000
感染的人还要多。
18:29
Cause原因 crippling瘫痪 throughout始终 the world世界.
400
1093000
2000
这造成了世界各地的瘫痪。
18:31
And over the last two years年份,
401
1095000
2000
而在过去的两年时间里
18:33
2,000 people has been crippled
402
1097000
2000
在班登达地区南端
18:35
in the southern南部的 tip小费 of Bandundu班顿杜 region地区.
403
1099000
2000
已经有2000人已经瘫痪了。
18:37
That used to be the illegal非法 diamond钻石 trade贸易,
404
1101000
2000
这里原来是非法钻石交易地。
18:39
from the UNITA-dominated盟主导 area in Angola安哥拉.
405
1103000
3000
从[不清楚]统治的安哥拉地区
18:42
That has now disappeared消失,
406
1106000
2000
在那里现在已经消失了。
18:44
and they are now in great economic经济 problem问题.
407
1108000
2000
他们现在则有一个更大的经济问题。
18:46
And one week ago, for the first time,
408
1110000
3000
就在一个星期前,第一次,
18:49
there were four lines线 on the Internet互联网.
409
1113000
3000
这里有4条上线的因特网。
18:52
Don't get confused困惑 of the progress进展 of the emerging新兴 economies经济
410
1116000
3000
不要对新兴经济体的成就
18:55
and the great capacity容量
411
1119000
3000
和在中等收入国家人民的
18:58
of people in the middle中间 income收入 countries国家
412
1122000
2000
能力而疑惑,
19:00
and in peaceful平静的 low income收入 countries国家.
413
1124000
2000
而在和平宁静的低收入国家中。
19:02
There is still mystery神秘 in one billion十亿.
414
1126000
2000
这里还有在1亿人中的谜题。
19:04
And we have to have more concepts概念
415
1128000
2000
我们必须有着超越发展中国家和
19:06
than just developing发展 countries国家 and developing发展 world世界.
416
1130000
3000
发展中世界的概念。
19:09
We need a new mindset心态. The world世界 is converging收敛,
417
1133000
3000
我们需要一个新的态度。世界正在融合。
19:12
but -- but -- but not the bottom底部 billion十亿.
418
1136000
3000
但是,但是,但不是那底层的一亿。
19:15
They are still as poor较差的 as they've他们已经 ever been.
419
1139000
3000
他们仍然和以前一样贫穷。
19:18
It's not sustainable可持续发展, and it will not happen发生 around one superpower超级大国.
420
1142000
5000
这并不是可持续的。这也不会围绕着一个超级力量。
19:23
But you will remain
421
1147000
2000
但是你会继续扮演着
19:25
one of the most important重要 superpowers超级大国,
422
1149000
3000
最重要的的超级力量之一。
19:28
and the most hopeful有希望 superpower超级大国, for the time to be.
423
1152000
3000
也是从时间上看来最有希望的超级力量,
19:31
And this institution机构
424
1155000
2000
而且在这种局势下
19:33
will have a very crucial关键 role角色,
425
1157000
2000
将会有一个非常关键的角色,
19:35
not for United联合的 States状态, but for the world世界.
426
1159000
2000
不是美国,而是全世界。
19:37
So you have a very bad name名称,
427
1161000
3000
所以你们有一个十分差劲的名字,
19:40
State Department. This is not the State Department.
428
1164000
2000
国家部门,这不是国家部门。
19:42
It's the World世界 Department.
429
1166000
2000
这是世界部门。
19:44
And we have a high hope希望 in you. Thank you very much.
430
1168000
2000
而且我们对你们给予重望。十分感谢你们。
19:46
(Applause掌声)
431
1170000
5000
(掌声)
Translated by Halei Liu
Reviewed by Zachary Lin Zhao

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com