TEDGlobal 2009
Loretta Napoleoni: The intricate economics of terrorism
洛蕾塔·拿波里奥尼：错综复杂的恐怖主义经济
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洛蕾塔·拿波里奥尼阐述了采访意大利秘密组织成员的故事。这场经历引领她开始关注恐怖主义。她开始探索世界经济的幕后是什么，同时也解开了洗钱与爱国者法案之间的关系。
Loretta Napoleoni - Macroeconomist
She made her name following the dollars in terrorist networks, but now Loretta Napoleoni is on the trail of something far more sinister -- the gray zone where crime and unregulated credit meet. Full bio
She made her name following the dollars in terrorist networks, but now Loretta Napoleoni is on the trail of something far more sinister -- the gray zone where crime and unregulated credit meet. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to show you how terrorism
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我将要向你们展示恐怖主义
00:18
actually interacts with our daily life.
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是如何渗入日常生活。
00:21
15 years ago I received a phone call from a friend.
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15年前，我接到一个朋友的电话。
00:25
At the time he was looking after the rights of political prisoners
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昔时，他正为意大利监狱里的犯人的政治权利
00:28
in Italian jails.
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而奔走。
00:31
He asked me if I wanted to interview the Red Brigades.
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他问我是否想去采访红色旅的成员。
00:35
Now, as many of you may remember,
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正如你们所想
00:37
the Red Brigades was a terrorist, Marxist organization
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红色旅是恐怖组织、马克思主义组织，
00:41
which was very active in Italy
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于60年代至80年代中期
00:43
from the 1960s until the mid-1980s.
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他们一度气焰嚣张。
00:47
As part of their strategy
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（审判时）他们将沉默是金
00:49
the Red Brigades never spoke with anybody, not even with their lawyers.
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贯彻于
00:53
They sat in silence through their trails,
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于审判中，他们一致保持沉默
00:57
waving occasionally at family and friends.
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并时常向他们的家人及朋友挥手致意
01:01
In 1993 they declared the end of the armed struggle.
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于1993年，这场武装斗争最终被结束了。
01:07
And they drew a list of people with whom they would talk,
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不过他们却愿接受某一群人的采访
01:09
and tell their story.
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以讲述他们的故事。
01:11
And I was one of those people.
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我就是其中之一。
01:14
When I asked my friend why the Red Brigades want to talk to me,
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而我则询问我的朋友，他们为何会想到我？
01:17
he said that the female members of the organization
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他回答道是该组织里的女性成员们
01:21
had actually supported my name.
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提议我的名字。
01:24
In particular, one person had put it forward.
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特别是由一位女成员提出的。
01:27
She was my childhood friend.
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她曾是我儿时好友。
01:30
She had joined the Red Brigades
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然而她加入了红色旅
01:32
and became a leader of the organization.
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且成为其中的领导人物。
01:35
Naturally, I didn't know that
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直到她被捕的那天
01:37
until the day she was arrested.
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我才知道她是红色旅的成员。
01:39
In fact, I read it in the newspaper.
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我实际是从报纸中才知道。
01:43
At the time of the phone call
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在我接到电话时，
01:45
I just had a baby,
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我刚刚有了一个小孩，
01:47
I successfully completed a management buyout
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适时，我成功收购了
01:49
to the company I was working with,
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我所在的公司，
01:52
and the last thing I wanted to do was to go back home
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当时我最不想做的就是回到家里
01:55
and touring the high-security prisons.
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参观被严密守卫的监狱。
01:58
But this is exactly what I did
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我也得偿夙愿，
02:01
because I wanted to know
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以便了解
02:03
what had turned my best friend
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我最好的朋友
02:05
into a terrorist,
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为何会成为一名恐怖分子，
02:07
and why she'd never tried to recruit me.
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却偏偏没找上我。
02:11
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:13
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
02:16
So, this is exactly what I did.
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因此我如愿以偿地去了。
02:21
Now, I found the answer very quickly.
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我瞬时就知悉了答案。
02:25
I actually had failed
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由于我的心理素质
02:27
the psychological profiling of a terrorist.
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使我不适合成为一名恐怖分子。
02:30
The center committee of the Red Brigades
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红色旅的中央委员会
02:32
had judged me too single-minded
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认为我是一根筋且自以为是
02:34
and too opinionated to become a good terrorist.
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因此不是做恐怖分子的料。
02:38
My friend, on the other hand, she was a good terrorist
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相反，我的朋友却是一位适合做恐怖分子的人
02:41
because she was very good at following orders.
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因为她会遵守上级命令。
02:44
She also embraced violence.
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何况她还信奉暴力。
02:47
Because she believed that the only way
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她认为只有通过
02:49
to unblock what, at the time,
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武装斗争
02:52
was known as a blocked democracy,
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才能打破意大利的封闭民主，
02:54
Italy, a country run by the same party for 35 years
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当时，意大利已被同一政党
02:58
was the arms struggle.
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统治了35年。
03:02
At the same time, while I was interviewing the Red Brigades,
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同一时间，当我在采访红色旅的成员时，
03:05
I also discovered that their life was not ruled
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我发觉，支配他们的
03:08
by politics or ideology,
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不是政治或意识形态，
03:11
but actually was ruled by economics.
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不料却是经济。
03:14
They were constantly short of cash.
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他们长年地缺乏金钱。
03:17
They were constantly searching for cash.
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他们长年地搜刮金钱。
03:20
Now, contrary to what many people believe,
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与很多人的认识大相迳庭，
03:22
terrorism is actually a very expensive business.
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恐怖主义是一项十分昂贵的生意。
03:26
I'll give you an idea.
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举一个例子说。
03:28
In the 1970s, the turnover of the Red Brigades
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在70年代，红色旅
03:33
on a yearly basis
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每年的营业额大约是
03:35
was seven million dollars.
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七百万美元。
03:37
This is roughly between 100
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换算成现在的购买力，
03:39
and 150 million, today.
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这大约是1亿到1.5亿之间。
03:41
Now, you know, if you live underground
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正如你们所知，地下工作者
03:44
it's really hard to produce this amount of money.
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很难赚得那么多钱。
03:49
But this also explains why, when I was interviewing the Red Brigades,
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只是这也解释了当我采访红色旅的成员时，
03:53
and then, later on, other arms organizations,
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以及随后采访其他武装组织的成员时，
03:56
including members of al-Zarqawi group in the Middle East,
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如中东的扎卡维组织成员时，
04:01
everybody was extremely reluctant
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他们都抗拒回答有关
04:04
to talk about ideology, or politics.
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意思形态或政治的问题。
04:07
Because they had no idea.
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因为他们对这些都一无所知。
04:09
The political vision of a terrorist organization
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一个恐怖组织的政治目的
04:13
is decided by the leadership,
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都是由首领们决定，
04:16
which, generally, is never more than five to seven people.
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这群人一般都只有五至七人。
04:19
All the others do, day in and day out,
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其他成员都在
04:22
is search for money.
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日夜搜刮金钱。
04:24
Once, for example, I was interviewing
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例如，有一次当我采访
04:26
this part-timer from the Red Brigades.
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一位红色旅的临时成员。
04:29
It was a psychiatrist. He loved sailing.
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他是一位精神病医生。他热爱开船。
04:31
He was a really keen sailor. And he had this beautiful boat.
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他是一位热情洋溢的水手。何况他还有一艘出色的航船。
04:35
And he told me that the best time of his life
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因此他告诉我他一生中最美好的时光
04:37
was when he was a member of the Red Brigades
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是他还是一名红色旅的成员时，
04:40
and he went sailing, every summer, back and forth
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每年夏天，他都会航行至
04:42
from Lebanon, where he would pick up
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黎巴嫩，以从巴解组织
04:44
Soviet weapons from the PLO,
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接取来自苏联的武器，
04:46
and then carry them all the way to Sardinia
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然后运送至撒丁岛，
04:49
where the other arms organization from Europe would go
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欧洲其他的武装组织
04:52
and take their share of the arms.
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都会前往那里分赃。
04:55
For that service the Red Brigades were actually paid a fee,
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不过红色旅会从中提成，
04:59
which went to fund their organization.
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这笔钱就成为他们组织的基金。
05:02
So, because I am a trained economist
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由于我是一名经济学家
05:05
and I think in economic terms,
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所以我会从经济学角度进行思考，
05:07
all of the sudden I thought,
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于那一瞬间我想到
05:09
maybe there is something here.
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在这其中或许会有什么奥妙。
05:11
Maybe there is a link, a commercial link,
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或许会有一条链接，一条商业链接，
05:13
between one organization and another one.
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以联系各个组织。
05:17
But it was only when I interviewed
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可是直到我采访马里奥·莫雷蒂，
05:20
Mario Moretti, the head of the Red Brigades,
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红色旅的首脑，
05:24
the man who kidnapped and killed Aldo Moro,
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他策划绑架并杀死莫罗，
05:27
Italian former prime minister,
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他是前意大利总理，
05:30
that I finally realized
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我终于意识到
05:32
that terrorism is actually business.
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恐怖主义实际上是一项生意。
05:35
I was having lunch with him
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我和他在一间意大利监狱里
05:37
in a high-security prison in Italy.
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共进午餐。
05:39
And as we were eating,
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当我们正在进餐时，
05:42
I had the distinct feeling
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我仿佛感觉到
05:44
that I was back in the city of London,
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我现在是在伦敦，
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having lunch with a fellow banker or an economist.
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同一名银行家或经济学家一起吃午餐。
05:51
This guy thought in the same way I did.
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这人的想法和居然我一摸一样。
05:55
So, I decided that I wanted to investigate the economics of terrorism.
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因此我决定要探索恐怖主义经济。
06:01
Naturally, nobody wanted to fund my research.
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固然没有人会赞助我。
06:05
In fact, I think many people thought that I was a bit crazy.
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事实上，很多人都认为我疯了。
06:07
You know, that woman that goes around to foundations
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你们想象一下，有一位女士每天奔走于各个基金会，
06:10
asking for money, thinking about the economics of terrorism.
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寻求赞助，以研究恐怖主义经济。
06:14
So, in the end, I took a decision
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最终，我决定，
06:17
that, in retrospect, did change my life.
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回想起来，这改变了我的一生，
06:20
I sold my company,
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我变卖了我的公司，
06:22
and funded the research myself.
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以便供我研究这个项目。
06:25
And what I discovered
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是故，我发掘出了
06:27
is this parallel reality,
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一个平行的社会，
06:29
another international economic system,
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另一个国际经济体系，
06:33
which runs parallel to our own,
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和明面上的同时发展，
06:36
which has been created by arms organizations
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它是由武装组织们建立的，
06:38
since the end of World War II.
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大概建立于二战结束时。
06:40
And what is even more shocking
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岂料，更使我震惊的是，
06:42
is that this system
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这个体系
06:46
has followed, step by step, the evolution
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是紧紧跟随着我们自己的体系
06:49
of our own system,
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进化历程的，
06:51
of our Western capitalism.
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这个由西方资本主义支撑的体系。
06:53
And there are three main stages.
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其中有三个主要阶段。
06:56
The first one is the state sponsor of terrorism.
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第一阶段，国家资助的恐怖主义。
06:59
The second one is the privatization of terrorism.
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第二阶段，恐怖主义的私有化。
07:02
And the third, of course, is the globalization of terrorism.
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第三阶段，恐怖主义的全球化。
07:06
So, state sponsor of terrorism,
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国家资助的恐怖主义，
07:09
feature of the Cold War.
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是冷战的产物。
07:11
This is when the two superpowers were fighting
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昔日，两个超级大国
07:13
a war by proxy,
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在明争暗斗，
07:15
along the periphery of the sphere of influence,
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于他们斗争的余威中，
07:18
fully funding arms organizations.
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各种武装组织建立起来了。
07:21
A mix of legal and illegal activities is used.
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他们则是八仙过海各显神通。
07:24
So, the link between crime and terror
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所以，犯罪和恐怖活动
07:27
is established very early on.
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很早就建立关系。
07:30
And here is the best example,
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这里有个最好的例子，
07:32
the Contras in Nicaragua, created by the CIA,
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尼加拉瓜的反抗局，是由中情局建立的，
07:35
legally funded by the U.S. Congress,
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中情局是通过美国国会合法成立的，
07:38
illegally funded by the Reagan administration
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而反抗军则由里根政府暗中成立，
07:41
via covert operation, for example, the Iran-Contra Affair.
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又例如，伊朗门事件。
07:47
Then comes the late 1970s, early '80s,
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到达80年代时，
07:50
and some groups successfully carry out
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一些成功地
07:53
the privatization of terrorism.
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私有化。
07:55
So, they gain independence from the sponsor,
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适时，他们就不再受制于他们的赞助者，
07:58
and start funding themselves.
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同时开始自力更生。
08:02
Now, again we see a mix of legal and illegal activities.
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我们再次见识到了他们的能耐。
08:07
So, Arafat used to get a percentage
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阿拉法特一般都会从
08:10
of the smuggling of hashish
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由贝卡谷地来的走私大麻中
08:13
from Bekáa Valley, which is the valley between Lebanon and Syria.
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抽成，贝卡谷地处于黎巴嫩和叙利亚之间。
08:17
And the IRA, which control the private transportation system
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再如爱尔兰共和军，他们实际掌控着北爱尔兰的
08:21
in Northern Ireland, did exactly the same thing.
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私营运输系统，他们做了同阿拉法特一模一样的事。
08:24
So, every single time
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每当有人在贝尔法斯特
08:26
that somebody got into a taxi in Belfast
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坐的士时，
08:29
without knowing, actually,
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他们自己不知，他们是
08:31
was funding the IRA.
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在赞助爱尔兰共和军。
08:34
But the great change came, of course,
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不料巨大的变化正在来临，
08:36
with globalization and deregulation.
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它们正是全球化和放松管制。
08:39
This is when arms organization were able to link up,
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此时，各个武装组织可以相互联系，
08:42
also financially, with each other.
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当然也包括经济上的联系。
08:44
But above all, they started to do
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从此，黑色经济
08:46
serious business with the world of crime.
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开始成形。
08:49
And together they money-laundered
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他们都是用同样的渠道
08:51
their dirty business through the same channel.
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进行洗钱。
08:55
This is when we see the birth of the transnational
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跨国武装组织—基地组织就是
08:58
arms organization Al Qaeda.
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从中诞生的。
09:01
This is an organization that can raise money across border.
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这个组织可以跨大陆的赚钱。
09:04
But also that is able to carry out attacks
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以至于他们能跨国
09:07
in more than one country.
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进行恐怖袭击。
09:10
Now, deregulation also brought back
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然而，管制放松同时带回了
09:13
rogue economics.
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无赖经济。
09:15
So what is rogue economics?
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什么是无赖经济呢？
09:17
Rogue economics is a force which is constantly
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无赖经济一直是雌伏于
09:19
lurking in the background of history.
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历史的黑暗面。
09:23
It comes back at times of great transformation,
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每当巨变到来时它的身影就会出现，
09:26
globalization being one of those transformations.
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固然全球化就是一场时代巨变。
09:29
It is at this times in which
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当政治无法控制经济走向时，
09:32
politics actually loses control of the economy,
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经济力量就会转变成一种无赖力量
09:35
and the economy becomes a rogue force
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而这股力量
09:38
working against us.
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是与我们作对的。
09:40
It has happened before in history.
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回顾历史，我们经常可以看见其身影，
09:41
It has happened with the fall of the Roman Empire.
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如，罗马帝国倾覆时，
09:45
It has happened with Industrial Revolution.
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和工业革命时。
09:47
And it actually happened again, with the fall of the Berlin wall.
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当柏林墙倒塌时，它再一次显现了。
09:52
Now, I calculated how big was this international
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我计算了下国际黑色经济
09:57
economic system composed by crime,
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每年的
09:59
terror, and illegal economy,
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生产总值，
10:02
before 9-11.
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当然是在9-11前。
10:04
And it is a staggering 1.5 trillion dollars.
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结果是令人震惊的1.5万亿美元。
10:09
It is trillions, it's not billions.
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注意是万亿，不是十亿。
10:11
This is about twice the GDP of the United Kingdom,
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这大概是英国每年GDP的双倍，
10:14
soon will be more,
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而这个差距会继续扩大，
10:16
considering where this country is going.
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考虑到这个国家正走下坡路。
10:18
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:21
Now, until 9-11,
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直到9-11，
10:23
the bulk of all this money
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这笔钱大部分
10:25
flew into the U.S. economy
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都飞进了美国的经济
10:27
because the bulk of the money was denominated in U.S. dollars
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因为这笔钱大部分都是美元
10:31
and the money laundering was taking place
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而且他们是美国国内
10:34
inside the United States.
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进行洗钱的。
10:36
The entry point, of course, of most of this money
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大部分的金钱都是通过离岸设施
10:39
were the off-shore facilities.
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进入美国的
10:41
So, this was a vital injection of cash
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因此这股生力军就此
10:45
into the U.S. economy.
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进入美国的经济。
10:48
Now, when I went to look at the figures of the U.S. money supply,
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我前去查看了美金的供应数量，
10:53
the U.S. money supply is the amount
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美金的供应数量
10:55
of dollars that the Federal Reserve
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正是每年美联储印出
10:58
prints every year
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的钞票数量，
11:00
in order to satisfy
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他们的数量
11:02
the increase in the demand for dollars,
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是根据人们的需求而定，
11:05
which, of course, reflects the growth
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这当然也反映出
11:07
of the economy.
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经济的增长。
11:09
So, when I went to look at those figures, I noted that since the late 1960s
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当我去查看具体数量时，我察觉到自从
11:13
a growing number of these dollars
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60年代末期以来
11:17
was actually leaving the United States,
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每年都有一些美金流出国外
11:19
never to come back.
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并再未返还。
11:22
These were money taken out
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这些钱都通过纸币
11:24
in suitcases or in containers, in cash of course.
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装在皮箱或其它容器里带往国外。
11:28
These were money taken out by criminals and money launderers.
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这些钱都是被罪犯或者洗钱者带出的。
11:31
These were money taken out to fund
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这些钱都贡献给
11:34
the growth of the terror,
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恐怖组织的发展，
11:36
illegal and criminal economy.
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以及黑色经济的增长。
11:40
So, you see, what is the relationship?
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现在，你们认识到这之间的联系吗？
11:44
The United States actually is a country
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美国实际上是作为世界的
11:48
that is the reserve currency of the world.
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货币贮备基地。
11:52
What does it mean? That means that
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这意味着什么？这意味着
11:54
it has a privilege that other countries do not have.
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美国将会拥有特权。
11:57
It can borrow against the total amount of dollars
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他们可以凭在世界流通
12:01
in circulation in the world.
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美元借钱。
12:03
This privilege is called seigniorage.
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这项特权就叫做铸币税。
12:06
No other country can do that.
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其它国家都无法做到。
12:09
All the other countries, for example the United Kingdom,
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其它的国家，如，英国
12:11
can borrow only against the amount of money
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只能凭借在国内流通的
12:15
in circulation inside its own borders.
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货币借钱。
12:19
So, here is the implication of the relationship
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这就是世界经济体系和
12:21
between the worlds of crime, terror, and illegal economy, and our economy.
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黑色经济体系的关系。
12:26
The U.S. in the 1990s
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美国于90年代
12:29
was borrowing against the growth
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通过黑色经济的增长
12:31
of the terror, illegal and criminal economy.
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以来借贷。
12:35
This is how close we are with this world.
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两个世界是极其靠近的。
12:40
Now, this situation changed, of course, after 9-11,
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在9-11之后，情况有所改变，
12:42
because George Bush launched the War on Terror.
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乔治布什发动了一场反恐战争。
12:45
Part of the War on Terror
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这场战争是爱国者法案
12:47
was the introduction of the Patriot Act.
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颁布的序幕。
12:50
Now, many of you know that the Patriot Act
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正如你们所知，爱国者法案
12:52
is a legislation that greatly reduces
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极大地缩减了
12:55
the liberties of Americans in order to protect them
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美国人的自由度，以图保护他们
12:58
against terrorism.
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及避免恐怖主义。
13:00
But there is a section of the Patriot Act
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只是在爱国者法案中
13:02
which refers specifically to finance.
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有专门的针对金融的条款。
13:04
And it is, in fact, an anti-money-laundering legislation.
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这同时也是一个反洗钱的法案。
13:08
What the Patriot Act did was
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爱国者法案中
13:10
to prohibit U.S. bank,
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明文禁止美国的银行
13:12
and U.S.-registered foreign banks
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和在美国注册的外资银行
13:14
from doing any businesses with off-shore facilities.
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与离岸设施做任何交易。
13:18
It closed that door between the money laundering
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这关闭了利用美国
13:21
in dollars, and the U.S. economy.
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经济进行洗钱作业的大门。
13:24
It also gave the U.S. monetary authorities
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法案同时也赐予美国货币当局监管权利，
13:29
the right to monitor any dollar transaction
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以监管世界上所有用
13:32
taking place anywhere in the world.
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美元进行的交易。
13:36
Now, you can imagine what was the reaction of the international
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你们可以想象世界金融和银行市场
13:38
finance and banking.
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的反应是什么了。
13:40
All the bankers said to their clients,
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所有的银行从业者都对他们的
13:43
"Get out of the dollars and go and invest somewhere else."
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顾客说：“赶快抽出对美元的投资以向其它地方投资。”
13:46
Now, the Euro was a newly born currency
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欧元作为一新生的货币
13:49
of great opportunity for business, and, of course, for investment.
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是为商业投资提供了巨大的机会。
13:53
And this is what people did.
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而人们也这样做了。
13:55
Nobody wants the U.S. monetary authority
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没有任何人希望美国货币当局
13:57
to check their relationship,
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来监察他们
13:59
to monitor their relationship with their clientele.
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与他们顾客之间的关系。
14:03
The same thing happened, of course,
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对于地下世界，
14:05
in the world of crime and terror.
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也发生了同样事情。
14:09
People simply moved their money-laundering activities
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他们只是把他们的洗钱活动
14:14
away from the United States
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从美国移至
14:17
into Europe.
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欧洲。
14:20
Why did this happen? This happened because
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为什么会这样？因为爱国者法案
14:22
the Patriot Act was a unilateral legislation.
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只是美国单方面颁布的。
14:25
It was introduced only in the United States.
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这项法案只适用于美国国内。
14:27
And it was introduced only for the U.S. dollars.
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同时也只适用于美元。
14:30
In Europe, a similar legislation
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但是在欧洲，这样的法案
14:32
was not introduced.
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还尚未颁布。
14:34
So, within six months
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欧洲仅用六个月的
14:36
Europe became the epicenter
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时间，就成为了
14:38
of the money-laundering activities
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世界洗钱作业的
14:41
of the world.
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中心。
14:44
So, this is how incredible are the relationship
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这就是我们地上世界
14:48
between the world of crime
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与犯罪世界
14:50
and the world of terror,
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及恐怖活动世界
14:52
and our own life.
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之间的联系。
14:55
So, why did I tell you this story?
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我为什么要告诉你们这个故事？
14:57
I told you this story because you
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我与你们分享这个故事
14:59
must understand that there is a world
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是想你们知道，这个世界中
15:02
that goes well beyond the headlines of the newspapers,
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还存在另一世界，而且远超报纸头条，
15:06
including the personal relationship that you have
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抑或你的与你朋友、家庭之间的
15:08
with friends and family.
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个人关系。
15:11
You got to question everything that is told to you,
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你需要对所有的事都持怀疑态度，
15:14
including what I just told you today.
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包括我今天所讲述的故事。
15:16
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
15:18
This is the only way for you
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这是你能了解
15:20
to step into the dark side, and have a look at it.
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世界黑暗面的唯一途径。
15:23
And believe me,
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相信我，
15:25
it's going to be scary.
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这将会是可怕的。
15:27
It's going to be frightful, but it's going to enlighten you.
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虽然这是可怕的一件事，但同时它也会启发你。
15:30
And, above all, it's not going to be boring.
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最重要的一点就是，这很有趣。
15:33
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
15:35
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Loretta Napoleoni - MacroeconomistShe made her name following the dollars in terrorist networks, but now Loretta Napoleoni is on the trail of something far more sinister -- the gray zone where crime and unregulated credit meet.
Why you should listen
Once it was easy to know where our money was going. Now we live under a system Loretta Napoleoni has dubbed "rogue economics," where the blurry histories of the products we consume and the cash we invest make us complicit in financing barely legal credit schemes -- and even crime, if it's the slavery producing the beans for our lattes or the guts of our mobile phones.
The reach of the newly global market, as Napoleoni argues in her new book, Rogue Economics: Capitalism's New Reality, connects us all to the dark side, regardless of our intentions to be responsible -- and, she says, our deep connection to fishy credit and unregulated finance has laid the groundwork for the current economic crisis. Her previous book, Terror Incorporated, dives into the true economic impact of terrorism.
Loretta Napoleoni | Speaker | TED.com