ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology.

Why you should listen

Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at Wired magazine (which he co-founded, and where he now holds the title of Senior Maverick), founder of visionary nonprofits and writer on biology, business and “cool tools.” He’s renounced all material things save his bicycle (which he then rode 3,000 miles), founded an organization (the All-Species Foundation) to catalog all life on Earth, championed projects that look 10,000 years into the future (at the Long Now Foundation), and more. He’s admired for his acute perspectives on technology and its relevance to history, biology and society. His new book, The Inevitable, just published, explores 12 technological forces that will shape our future.

More profile about the speaker
Kevin Kelly | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxAmsterdam

Kevin Kelly: Technology's epic story

凯文·凯利讲技术发展故事

Filmed:
655,376 views

在这个内容丰富的,发人深省的TEDx阿姆斯特丹演讲中,凯文·凯利畅谈在我们的生活中,从个人层面到宇宙空间,技术都意味着什么。
- Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
I want to talk about my investigations调查
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我想谈谈我的调查
00:18
into what technology技术 means手段 in our lives生活 --
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在我们生活中,技术是什么,
00:23
not just our immediate即时 life, but in the cosmic宇宙的 sense,
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它不仅仅是我们眼前的生活,还有宇宙层面上,
00:26
in the kind of long history历史 of the world世界
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从漫长的历史世界
00:29
and our place地点 in the world世界:
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到我们人类在世界上所处的地位,
00:32
What is this stuff东东?
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这技术到底意味什么?
00:34
What is the significance意义?
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有什么意义?
00:36
And so, I want to kind of go through通过 my
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好,我来谈谈
00:38
little story故事 of what I found发现 out.
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我所发现的小故事。
00:40
And one of the first things that I started开始 to investigate调查 was
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我首先要谈的是我着手研究过的
00:42
the history历史 of the name名称 of technology技术.
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技术这个词的由来
00:46
And in the United联合的 States状态 there is a State of the Union联盟 address地址
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在美国,从1790年起,每位总统都要发表一个国情咨文
00:48
given特定 by every一切 president主席 since以来 1790.
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的报告。
00:51
And each one of those is really kind of
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每一份国情咨文
00:54
summing求和 up the most important重要 things
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总结了美国当时发生的
00:56
for the United联合的 States状态 at that time.
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最重要的事情
00:58
If you search搜索 for the word "technology技术,"
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如果你搜索“技术”这个词
01:00
it was not used until直到 1952.
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你会发现,一直到1952年,“技术”这个词才被使用。
01:04
So, technology技术 was sort分类 of absent缺席
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所以技术这个概念一直到到1952年,也就是我出生的那一年,
01:06
from everybody's每个人的 thinking思维 until直到 1952, which哪一个 happened发生 to be the year of my birth分娩.
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才在人们脑海中出现。
01:09
And obviously明显, technology技术
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显然,技术
01:12
had existed存在 before then, but we weren't aware知道的 of it,
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之前就已经存在,只是我们没有意识到它的存在。
01:14
and so it was sort分类 of an awakening唤醒
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因此在1952年前后
01:16
of this force in our life.
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我们生活中这种技术力量开始觉醒。
01:19
I actually其实 did research研究 to find out the first
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实际上我研究了解到第一次
01:21
use of the word "technology技术."
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使用“技术”
01:23
It was in 1829,
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是在1829年。
01:25
and it was invented发明 by a guy who was starting开始 a curriculum课程 --
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一个安排课程表,
01:28
a course课程, bringing使 together一起 all the kinds
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课程的人发明了它,用来把工艺美术和工业整合到
01:30
of arts艺术 and crafts工艺, and industry行业 --
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一起。
01:33
and he called it "Technology技术."
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他称它为技术。
01:35
And that's the very first use of the word.
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这是第一次使用这个单词。
01:37
So, what is this stuff东东
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那么,
01:39
that we're all consumed消费 by,
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我们都为之所占有,被为之惴惴不安的
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and bothered困扰 by?
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这东西到底是什么?
01:45
Alan艾伦 Kay calls电话 it, "Technology技术 is anything
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阿兰·凯伊说:“技术是当你出生后
01:47
that was invented发明 after you were born天生."
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才被发明的东西。”
01:49
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:50
Which哪一个 is sort分类 of the idea理念 that we normally一般 have about what technology技术 is:
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我们通常也是这么想的
01:54
It's all that new stuff东东.
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技术就是新的东西
01:56
It's not roads道路, or penicillin青霉素,
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不是指道路,或者盘尼西林,
01:58
or factory tires轮胎; it's the new stuff东东.
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或者轮胎厂。技术是指新东西。
02:02
My friend朋友 Danny丹尼 Hillis希利斯 says kind of a similar类似 one,
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我朋友丹尼希利斯说过类似的话,
02:04
he says, "Technology技术 is anything that doesn't work yet然而."
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他说:“技术,就是一些还不能很好的使用的玩意。”
02:07
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:08
Which哪一个 is, again, a sense that it's all new.
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这又再次证明技术是指新的东西。
02:10
But we know that it's just not new.
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但是我们知道它不仅仅是新东西,
02:12
It actually其实 goes way back, and what I want to suggest建议
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它也可以追溯到过去。我要建议的是
02:14
is it goes a long way back.
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技术有一段很长的历史演变。
02:18
So, another另一个 way to think about technology技术, what it means手段,
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那么,换种方式来思考技术,它意味着什么,
02:20
is to imagine想像 a world世界 without technology技术.
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想象一个没有技术的世界。
02:22
If we were to eliminate消除 every一切 single bit of technology技术 in the world世界 today今天 --
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如果我们去除当今世界的每个独特的技术,
02:25
and I mean everything,
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我是指所有技术,
02:27
from blades叶片 to scrapers铲运机 to cloth --
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从刀片到刮刀再到织物,
02:31
we as a species种类 would not live生活 very long.
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作为一个物种,我们就不会活很长时间。
02:34
We would die by the billions数十亿, and very quickly很快:
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数十亿人会很快地死掉。
02:37
The wolves would get us, we would be defenseless手无寸铁,
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狼群会吃我们,以致于我们无法防身。
02:40
we would be unable无法 to grow增长 enough足够 food餐饮, or find enough足够 food餐饮.
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我们将无法生产足够的粮食,或者找不到足够的食物。
02:43
Even the hunter-gatherers狩猎采集 used some elementary初级 tools工具.
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甚至是猎人打猎也使用一些基本工具。
02:47
And so, they had minimal最小 technology技术,
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尽管他们用最少的技术,
02:49
but they had some technology技术.
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但他们已经有了一些技术。
02:51
And if we study研究 those hunter-gatherer狩猎采集 tribes部落
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如果我们研究这些狩猎采集部落
02:54
and the Neanderthal尼安德特人, which哪一个 are very similar类似 to early man,
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和非常类似于早期人类的尼安德特人,
02:58
we find out a very curious好奇 thing about this world世界 without technology技术,
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我们会发现没有技术的世界一个非常新奇的事情,
03:01
and this is a kind of a curve曲线 of their average平均 age年龄.
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这就是他们的平均年龄曲线。
03:04
There are no Neanderthal尼安德特人 fossils化石 that are older旧的 than 40 years年份 old
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我们迄今发现没有一块尼安德特人化石
03:07
that we've我们已经 ever found发现,
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显示他们寿命超过40岁
03:09
and the average平均 age年龄 of most of these
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这些狩猎采集部落大多数人平均年龄
03:11
hunter-gatherer狩猎采集 tribes部落 is 20 to 30.
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是20-30岁。
03:14
There are very few少数 young年轻 infants婴儿
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因为非常高死亡率,所以非常少的婴幼儿
03:17
because they die -- high mortality死亡 rate -- and there's very few少数 old people.
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存活,也有很少的老年人存活。
03:20
And so the profile轮廓 is sort分类 of for your average平均 San Francisco弗朗西斯科 neighborhood邻里:
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这是你们旧金山周边人们的平均年龄资料。
03:24
a lot of young年轻 people.
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有很多年轻人。
03:26
And if you go there, you say, "Hey, everybody's每个人的 really healthy健康."
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如果你去旧金山那里,你说,“嘿,大家都很健康吧。”
03:28
Well, that's because they're all young年轻.
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嗯,那是因为他们都很年轻。
03:30
And the same相同 thing with the hunter-gatherer狩猎采集 tribes部落 and early man
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狩猎采集部落和早期人的同样问题
03:32
is that you didn't live生活 beyond the age年龄 of 30.
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是他们活不到30岁。
03:35
So, it was a world世界 without grandparents祖父母.
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因此,那是一个没有祖父母的世界。
03:37
And grandparents祖父母 are very important重要,
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祖父母也是非常重要的,
03:39
because they are the transmitter发射机 of cultural文化 evolution演化 and information信息.
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因为他们是文化演变和信息的传承者。
03:43
Imagine想像 a world世界 and basically基本上 everybody每个人 was 20 to 30 years年份 old.
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想象一个世界,基本上每个人都在20岁至30岁,
03:46
How much learning学习 can you do?
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你可以学到什么东西?
03:48
You can't do very much learning学习 in your own拥有 life,
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在你仅有的生命中,你不可能学到很多东西,
03:50
it's so short,
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它太短了。
03:52
and there's nobody没有人 to pass通过 on what you do learn学习.
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没有人可以传授给你所要学的东西。
03:54
So, that's one aspect方面.
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这只是一个方面。
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It was a very short life. But at the same相同 time
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生命太短暂。但同时
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anthropologists人类学家 know
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人类学家知道
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that most hunter-gatherer狩猎采集 tribes部落 of the world世界,
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世界上多数狩猎采集部落
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with that very little technology技术, actually其实 did not spend
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使用很少的技术,其实他们并没有花
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a very long time gathering搜集 the food餐饮 that they needed需要:
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很长的时间采集他们所需要的食物。
04:09
three to six hours小时 a day.
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一天3至6小时狩猎采集。
04:11
Some anthropologists人类学家 call that the original原版的 affluent富裕的 society社会.
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一些人类学家称之为原始富足社会。
04:14
Because they had banker银行家 hours小时 basically基本上.
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因为他们基本上有工作小时,类似于银行家小时。
04:17
So, it was possible可能 to get enough足够 food餐饮.
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就有可能获得足够的粮食。
04:20
But when the scarcity缺乏 came来了
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但当食物不足时,
04:22
when the highs高位 and lows低点 and the droughts干旱 came来了,
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收成不稳定和干旱来临时,
04:24
then people went into starvation饥饿.
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人们就进入饥饿时期。
04:27
And that's why they didn't live生活 very long.
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这也是他们活不长久的原因。
04:29
So, what technology技术 brought,
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因此技术都带来什么,
04:31
through通过 the very simple简单 tools工具 like these stone tools工具 here --
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通过这样很简单的工具,像这里的石器,
04:36
even something as small as this --
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甚至一些小到这样的工具,
04:38
the early bands of humans人类 were actually其实 able能够
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伴随人类的早期动物,
04:40
to eliminate消除 to extinction灭绝
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当它们1万年前第一次出现在北美洲,
04:43
about 250 megafauna巨型动物 animals动物
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大约250种巨型动物群
04:47
in North America美国 when they first arrived到达 10,000 years年份 ago.
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事实上它们都被淘汰和灭绝了。
04:51
So, long before the industrial产业 age年龄
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所以,早在工业时代
04:53
we've我们已经 been affecting影响 the planet行星 on a global全球 scale规模,
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我们虽然那时用的技术很少
04:56
with just a small amount of technology技术.
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但人类就已经在全球范围内影响地球
04:58
The other thing that the early man invented发明 was fire.
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另一件事情是早期人类发明了火。
05:01
And fire was used to clear明确 out, and again,
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火是用来清除丛林,并再次
05:03
affected受影响 the ecology生态 of grass and whole整个 continents大陆,
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影响生态草地和整个大陆,
05:07
and was used in cooking烹饪.
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并用于做饭。
05:10
It enabled启用 us to actually其实 eat all kinds of things.
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它使我们可以吃各种东西。
05:12
It was sort分类 of, in a certain某些 sense, in a McLuhan麦克卢汉 sense,
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在某种意义上,从麦克卢汉意义上,它是
05:14
an external外部 stomach,
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一个外在的胃。
05:17
in the sense that it was cooking烹饪 food餐饮 that we could not eat otherwise除此以外.
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在这个意义上讲,只有用火烹调食物,否则我们不能吃。
05:20
And if we don't have fire, we actually其实 could not live生活.
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如果我们没有火,我们根本无法生存。
05:23
Our bodies身体 have adapted适应 to these new diets饮食.
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我们身体已经适应了这些新的饮食习惯。
05:26
Our bodies身体 have changed in the last 10,000 years年份.
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过去1万年,我们的身体已经改变了。
05:29
So, with that little bit of technology技术,
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所以,应用很少的技术,
05:32
humans人类 went from a small band of 10,000 or so --
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人类就从大约1万少数人发展起来,
05:34
the same相同 number as Neanderthals尼安德特人 everywhere到处 --
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同等于那时遍布各地的尼安特人的数量,
05:36
and we suddenly突然 exploded爆炸. With the invention发明 of language语言
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我们发明了语言,突然人口爆炸了,
05:38
around 50,000 years年份 ago,
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大约5万年前,
05:40
the number of humans人类 exploded爆炸,
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人口数量呈爆炸式发展,
05:42
and very quickly很快 became成为 the dominant优势 species种类 on the planet行星.
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非常快地就变成了这地球上的主宰者。
05:45
And they migrated迁移 into the rest休息 of the world世界 at two kilometers公里 per year
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以每年2公里速度,仅仅数万年
05:49
until直到, within several一些 tens of thousands数千 of years年份,
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人类就迁移到世界各地
05:52
we occupied占据 every一切 single watershed分水岭 on the planet行星
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懂得少量技术以后
05:54
and became成为 the most dominant优势 species种类,
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我们人类就占领这地球上每一个分水岭地
05:56
with a very small amount of technology技术.
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变成那里的最主要的物种
05:58
And even at that time, with the introduction介绍 of agriculture农业,
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甚至在那个时候,8000年至1万年以前
06:01
8,000, 10,000 years年份 ago
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伴随农业的发展
06:03
we started开始 to see climate气候 change更改.
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我们就开始有气候变化。
06:05
So, climate气候 change更改 is not a new thing.
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所以气候变化不是一个新鲜事物。
06:07
What's new is just the degree of it. Even during
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新鲜的是气候变化的程度。甚至
06:09
the agricultural农业的 age年龄 there was climate气候 change更改.
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在农业时代就有了气候变化。
06:12
And so, already已经 small amounts of technology技术
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因此,少量的技术已经
06:14
were transforming转型 the world世界.
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在改变着世界。
06:16
And what this means手段, and where I'm going, is that
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这意味着,我所指的是
06:18
technology技术 has become成为 the most powerful强大 force in the world世界.
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技术已经变成世界上最强大的力量。
06:22
All the things that we see today今天
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我们今天所看到的所有
06:24
that are changing改变 our lives生活, we can always trace跟踪 back
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改变我们生活的事情,我们都可以追溯
06:26
to the introduction介绍 of some new technology技术.
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归结为一些新技术的发明。
06:28
So, it's a force that is the most powerful强大 force
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所以这是一种力量
06:32
that has been unleashed如虎添翼 on this planet行星,
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它是这地球上已经被释放的最最强大的力量
06:34
and in such这样 a degree that I think
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强大到使我相信
06:37
that it's become成为 our -- who we are.
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技术变成我们人类自己
06:42
In fact事实, our humanity人性, and everything that we think about ourselves我们自己
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事实上,我们的人性,和一切关于我们自己的想法思考
06:45
is something that we've我们已经 invented发明.
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都是我们后来发明的
06:47
So, we've我们已经 invented发明 ourselves我们自己. Of all the animals动物 that we have domesticated,
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所以,我们发明了我们自身。被我们驯服的所有动物当中,
06:49
the most important重要 animal动物 that we've我们已经 domesticated
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最重要的一个
06:51
has been us. Okay?
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就是我们自身。对吧?
06:54
So, humanity人性 is our greatest最大 invention发明.
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所以,人性是我们最伟大的发明。
06:57
But of course课程 we're not doneDONE yet然而.
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当然了,我们还没有完全做好。
06:59
We're still inventing发明了, and this is what technology技术 is allowing允许 us to do --
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我们还在发明。这就是我们可以做的技术。
07:02
it's continually不断 to reinvent重塑 ourselves我们自己.
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继续再发掘人的潜力去重新发明。
07:05
It's a very, very strong强大 force.
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这是超强大的力量。
07:07
I call this entire整个 thing -- us humans人类 as our technology技术,
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我们人类作为技术本身,这就是头等大事,
07:10
everything that we've我们已经 made制作, gadgets小工具 in our lives生活 --
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我们创造的每一件事,日常生活每个工具,
07:13
we call that the technium技术元素. That's this world世界.
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我们称之为技术元素。这就是技术世界。
07:15
My working加工 definition定义 of technology技术
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我现在对技术的定义是
07:17
is "anything useful有用 that a human人的 mind心神 makes品牌."
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人类创造的任何有用的东西。
07:20
It's not just hammers and gadgets小工具, like laptops笔记本电脑.
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不仅仅指锤子,或者像笔记本的工具。
07:22
But it's also law. And of course课程 cities城市 are ways方法 to make
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但也指规律,法则。当然对我们人类来说,城市是种方法使事情变得
07:27
things more useful有用 to us.
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更加有用。
07:29
While this is something that comes from our mind心神,
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此时,我脑海中冒出的想法,
07:31
it also has its roots deeply
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技术也深深扎根于
07:34
into the cosmos宇宙.
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宇宙空间。
07:36
It goes back. The origins起源 and roots of technology技术
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追溯技术,它的起源和最初的根源
07:38
go back to the Big Bang,
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要回到大爆炸,
07:40
in this way, in that they are part部分 of this
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因此,技术的起源是
07:42
self-organizing自组织 thread线
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一个自组织的网,
07:44
that starts启动 at the Big Bang
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它开始于大爆炸,
07:46
and goes through通过 galaxies星系 and stars明星,
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再穿过星系和恒星
07:49
into life, into us.
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进入到我们的生活。
07:51
And the three major重大的 phases of the early universe宇宙
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早期宇宙的三个主要阶段
07:53
was energy能源, when the dominant优势 force was energy能源;
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是能量,那时主导力量是能量。
07:55
then it became成为, the dominant优势 force, as it cooled冷却, became成为 matter;
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然后主导力量变化,随着能量冷却,它变成物质。
07:58
and then, with the invention发明 of life, four billion十亿 years年份 ago,
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40亿年前,随着生命物质的发展,
08:02
the dominant优势 force in our neighborhood邻里 became成为 information信息.
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在我们周边主导力量变为信息。
08:04
That's what life is: It's an information信息 process处理
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这就是生活。信息处理就是
08:06
that was restructuring重组 and making制造 new order订购.
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重新构建与重新排序的过程
08:09
So, those energy能源, matter Einstein爱因斯坦 show显示
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所以,爱因斯坦发现的这些能量物质
08:12
were equivalent当量, and now new sciences科学
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是可以相等转化的,现在新的
08:15
of quantum量子 computing计算 show显示 that entropy
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量子计算的科学显示熵/平均信息量
08:17
and information信息 and matter and energy能源
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与信息,物质和能量
08:20
are all interrelated相关, so it's one long continuum连续.
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都是相互关联的,所以它是一个长期连续体。
08:24
You put energy能源 into the right kind of system系统
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当你把能量放到合适的体系中,
08:27
and out comes wasted浪费 heat, entropy
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而产生了废热熵,
08:30
and extropyextropy, which哪一个 is order订购.
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和废除物,这就是规律
08:33
It's the increased增加 order订购.
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而且规律还在变化。
08:35
Where does this order订购 come from? Its roots go way back.
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那么,这规则是从哪来的?它的根源早就有了。
08:37
We actually其实 don't know.
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我们竟然还不知道。
08:39
But we do know that the self-organization自组织 trend趋势
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但是我们知道整个宇宙的自我组织趋势
08:42
throughout始终 the universe宇宙 is long,
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是很长远的,
08:44
and it began开始 with things like galaxies星系;
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它起源于像星系的东西。
08:46
they maintained保持 their order订购 for billions数十亿 of years年份.
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它们保持了数十亿年的规则。
08:49
Stars明星 are basically基本上 nuclear fusion聚变 machines
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星星们基本上是数十亿年自我组织
08:53
that self-organize自组织 and self-sustain自我维持 themselves他们自己 for billions数十亿 of years年份,
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自我维持自己的核裂变化
08:56
this order订购 against反对 the entropy of the world世界.
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这违背了世界普世的秩序。
08:58
And flowers花卉 and plants植物 are the same相同 thing, extended扩展,
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花卉和植物是同样的东西,在发展延伸。
09:04
and technology技术 is basically基本上 an extension延期 of life.
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技术基本上是一个生命的延续。
09:08
One trend趋势 that we notice注意 in all those things is that
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我们在所有这些事情里发现一个趋势是
09:12
the amount of energy能源 per gram公克 per second第二
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每克每秒在这流动变化的能量
09:14
that flows流动 through通过 this, is actually其实 increasing增加.
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实际上是增加的。
09:17
The amount of energy能源 is increasing增加 through通过 this little sequence序列.
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能量通过这个小顺序在增加。
09:22
And that the amount of energy能源 per gram公克 per second第二 that flows流动 through通过 life
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每克每秒在生命中流动变化的能量
09:26
is actually其实 greater更大 than a star --
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实际上比一个星星能量要大得多,
09:28
because of the star's明星 long lifespan寿命,
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因为星星的长寿命,
09:31
the energy能源 density密度 in life is actually其实 higher更高 than a star.
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生命中的能量密度实际上要高于星星的能量密度。
09:34
And the energy能源 density密度 that we see in the greatest最大
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我们所见到的最大的,
09:37
of anywhere随地 in the universe宇宙 is actually其实 in a PC个人计算机 chip芯片.
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在宇宙中的任何地方所看到的能量密度实际上是储存在个人芯片。
09:40
There is more energy能源 flowing流动 through通过, per gram公克 per second第二,
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它是每克每秒产生的能量
09:43
than anything that we have any other experience经验 with.
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都比我们接触任何其他事物的能量要多得多
09:46
What I would suggest建议 is that if you want to see
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所以我的建议是如果你想知道
09:49
where technology技术 is going, we continue继续 that trajectory弹道,
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技术将怎么发展,我们还在这轨迹变化上,
09:52
and we say "Well what's going to become成为 more energy-dense能量密度高,
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我们晓得什么将变成更多能源密度,
09:55
that's where it's going." And so what I've doneDONE
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这就是技术发展趋势。因此我所做的是
09:57
is, I've taken采取 the same相同 kinds of things
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我已经研究了同样的事情
09:59
and looked看着 at other aspects方面
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看生命进化的其他方面
10:01
of evolutionary发展的 life and say,
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和总结,
10:03
"What are the general一般 trends趋势 in evolutionary发展的 life?"
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什么是生命进化的总趋势。
10:05
And there are things moving移动 towards
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一些事情朝着
10:07
greater更大 complexity复杂, moving移动 towards greater更大 diversity多样,
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更加复杂化,更加多样化,
10:09
moving移动 towards greater更大 specialization专业化,
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更加专业化,
10:12
sentience知觉, ubiquity无处不在 and most important重要, evolvability可进化:
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更具有感知性,更加普遍存在和最重要的,更具有进化发展性。
10:16
Those very same相同 things are also present当下 in technology技术.
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正是这些事情是当今发展的技术,
10:20
That's where technology技术 is going.
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也是技术发展的潮流。
10:22
In fact事实, technology技术 is accelerating加速
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事实上,在生活的各个方面
10:24
all the aspects方面 of life,
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技术的发展都变得越来越快
10:27
and we can see that happening事件; just as there's diversity多样 in life,
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我们会看到这种变化。正如在生活中存在的多样性,
10:30
there's more diversity多样 in things we make.
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我们可以创造更多多样性的事情。
10:33
Things in life start开始 out being存在 general一般 cell细胞,
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生命中事物开始是一般细胞,
10:35
and they become成为 specialized专门: You have tissue组织 cells细胞,
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它们变得专业化。你有组织细胞。
10:37
you have muscle肌肉, brain cells细胞. And same相同 things happens发生 with
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你有肌肉,脑细胞。同样的道理
10:39
say, a hammer锤子, which哪一个 is general一般 at first
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就如最初一般的锤子
10:41
and becomes more specific具体.
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它变得更加具体化。
10:43
So, I would like to say that while there is six kingdoms王国 of life,
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所以我想说,现在有6个生命王国,
10:46
we can think of technology技术 basically基本上
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我们可以认为技术基本上
10:48
as a seventh第七 kingdom王国 of life.
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是第7个生命王国。
10:50
It's a branching分枝 off from the human人的 form形成.
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这是一个有别于人类形式的分支。
10:52
But technology技术 has its own拥有 agenda议程,
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但技术有它自己的议程
10:54
like anything, like life itself本身.
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就像其他事,就像生命本身。
10:56
For instance, right now, three-quarters四分之三 of the energy能源 that we use
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比如现在,我们使用的四分之三能源
10:59
is actually其实 used to feed饲料 the technium技术元素 itself本身.
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实际上是用来供应技术元素自身。
11:01
In transportation运输, it's not to move移动 us, it's to move移动
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在交通运输,它不是移动我们,而是移动
11:03
the stuff东东 that we make or buy购买.
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我们生产的和想买的东西。
11:05
I use the word "want." Technology技术 wants.
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我使用这个词“想要”描述。技术想要什么。
11:07
This is a robot机器人 that wants to plug插头 itself本身 in to get more power功率.
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机器人想使它自己得到更多能量。
11:10
Your cat wants more food餐饮.
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你的猫想要更多的食物。
11:12
A bacterium细菌, which哪一个 has no consciousness意识 at all,
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一个没有任何意识的细菌
11:15
wants to move移动 towards light.
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想要移到光亮地方。
11:17
It has an urge敦促, and technology技术 has an urge敦促.
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这往往是驱策,技术有着驱策力。
11:20
At the same相同 time, it wants to give us things,
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同时,技术想要创造出事物。
11:22
and what it gives us is basically基本上 progress进展.
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技术带给我们的基本上是改进。
11:25
You can take all kinds of curves曲线, and they're all pointing指点 up.
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你可以看看这些曲线图表,他们都是向上发展变化的。
11:27
There's really no dispute争议 about progress进展,
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如果我们扣去技术的成本
11:30
if we discount折扣 the cost成本 of that.
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这确实是毫无争议的进步
11:33
And that's the thing that bothers什么麻烦事 most people,
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困扰大多数人的事情是
11:35
is that progress进展 is really real真实,
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技术的确是真的进步了,
11:37
but we wonder奇迹 and question: What are the environmental环境的 costs成本 of it?
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但我们会吃惊和质疑我们为此所付出的环境代价。
11:41
I did a survey调查 of a number of species种类 of artifacts文物 in my house,
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我做了一个在我家的人造物品种类数量的调查,
11:45
and there's 6,000. Other people have come up with 10,000.
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共有6千件。其他人的数量加起来有1万件。
11:48
When King国王 Henry亨利 of England英国 died死亡,
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当英国亨利国王死时,
11:51
he had 18,000 things in his house,
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他家有1万8千件东西。
11:53
but that was the entire整个 wealth财富 of England英国.
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那就是整个英国的全部财富。
11:56
And with that entire整个 wealth财富 of England英国,
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尽管有了整个英国的全部财富,
12:00
King国王 Henry亨利 could not buy购买 any antibiotics抗生素,
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亨利国王不可以买任何抗生素。
12:03
he could not buy购买 refrigeration冷藏, he could not buy购买 a trip of a thousand miles英里.
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他买不到电冰箱。他买不到数以千里的旅游。
12:06
Whereas this rickshaw黄包车 wale岗子 in India印度
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但是这个在印度的人力黄包车夫
12:09
could save保存 up and buy购买 antibiotics抗生素
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可以积攒钱和买抗生素。
12:11
and he could buy购买 refrigeration冷藏.
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他也可以购得电冰箱。
12:13
He could buy购买 things that King国王 Henry亨利, in all his wealth财富, could never buy购买.
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他可以买到亨利国王用他全部财富也买不到的东西。
12:16
That's what progress进展 is about.
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这就是技术进步的例子。
12:18
So, technology技术 is selfish自私; technology技术 is generous慷慨.
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当然,技术是自私的,技术是慷慨的。
12:21
That conflict冲突, that tension张力, will be with us forever永远,
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这种冲突和紧张会伴随我们永远。
12:24
that sometimes有时 it wants to do what it wants to do,
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有时技术就想做它想做的事情。
12:26
and sometimes有时 it's going to do things for us.
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有时技术为了我们大家做些事情。
12:28
We have confusion混乱 about what we should think about a new technology技术.
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我们搞不清我们应该怎样思考一项新技术。
12:32
Right now the default默认 position位置 about when
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当新技术来临
12:34
a new technology技术 comes along沿, is we --
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现在人们的默认方法是
12:36
people talk about the precautionary预防 principle原理,
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讨论有什么预警的原理
12:38
which哪一个 is very common共同 in Europe欧洲,
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这在欧洲非常普遍。
12:41
which哪一个 says, basically基本上, "Don't do anything. When you meet遇到 a new
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简单说就是:“不要去做任何事。”当你遇到一个新
12:43
technology技术, stop,
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技术,请停止,
12:45
until直到 it can be proven证明 that there's no harm危害."
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直到它被证明是没有害处的。
12:47
I think that really leads引线 nowhere无处.
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我认为这的确行不通。
12:50
But a better way is to, what I call proactionaryproactionary principle原理,
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但我觉得更好的办法是,我称它为先行动原则。
12:52
which哪一个 is: You engage从事 with technology技术.
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它是指你参与从事技术。
12:55
You try it out.
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你可以试试看。
12:57
You obviously明显 do what the precautionary预防 principle原理 suggests提示,
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你明显做不干预原则建议的做法,
13:01
you try to anticipate预料 it, but after anticipating期待 it,
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你也可以试试先行动原则,当但你试过先行动原则后,
13:03
you constantly经常 asses it,
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你会经常使用它,
13:05
not just once一旦, but eternally万古.
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不仅仅一次,而是永远使用。
13:07
And when it diverts转接 from what you want,
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但当技术偏离于你想要的技术时,
13:10
we prioritize优先 risk风险, we evaluate评估 not just
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我们优化风险,我们不只是评估
13:12
the new stuff东东, but the old stuff东东.
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新东西,还有老东西。
13:14
We fix固定 it, but most importantly重要的, we relocate搬迁 it.
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我们解决问题,但最重要的是我们重组技术。
13:17
And what I mean by that is that
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我这指的是
13:19
we find a new job工作 for it.
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我们给技术找到新的任务工作。
13:21
Nuclear energy能源, fission分裂, is really bad idea理念
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用于军事目的的核能,核裂变
13:23
for bombs炸弹.
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是一个坏主意
13:25
But it may可能 be a pretty漂亮 good idea理念
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当是这技术可能是一个绝好的点子,只要我们重新
13:27
relocated搬迁 into sustainable可持续发展 nuclear energy能源
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应用它到可持续发展核能源
13:30
for electricity电力, instead代替 of burning燃烧 coal煤炭.
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用来生电而代替火力生电。
13:33
When we have a bad idea理念, the response响应 to a bad idea理念
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当我们有一个坏主意,对这坏主意的反应
13:36
is not no ideas思路, it's not to stop thinking思维.
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不是这主意,也不是要停下来思考。
13:39
The response响应 to a bad idea理念 --
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而是对此反应
13:41
like, say, a tungsten light bulb灯泡 --
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就像这个钨灯泡的例子,
13:44
is a better idea理念. OK?
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它会变成一个好主意,对吧?
13:46
So, better ideas思路 is really -- always the response响应
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所以,好主意通常是
13:50
to technology技术 that we don't like
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那些我们不喜欢的技术
13:51
is basically基本上, better technology技术.
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事实上它们的确是比较好的技术。
13:54
And actually其实, in a certain某些 sense, technology技术
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事实上,在某种意义上,技术
13:56
is a kind of a method方法 for generating发电 better ideas思路,
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是一种集合最好点子的方法,
13:59
if you can think about it that way.
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如果你可以向那样思考的话。
14:01
So, maybe spraying DDTDDT on crops作物 is a really bad idea理念.
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所以,也许对农作物喷洒滴滴涕是一个非常糟糕的主意。
14:04
But DDTDDT sprayed on local本地 homes家园,
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但是滴滴涕喷洒到当地家庭,
14:07
there's nothing better to eliminate消除 malaria疟疾,
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此外,昆虫滴滴涕浸渍蚊帐
14:10
besides除了 insect昆虫 DDT-impregnatedDDT浸渍 mosquito蚊子 nets.
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是最好消除疟疾的方法
14:14
But that's a really good idea理念; that's a good job工作 for technology技术.
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这的确是一个好主意。技术做得非常好例子。
14:17
So, our job工作 as humans人类 is to
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所以我们人类的工作是
14:19
parent our mind心神 children孩子,
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正确的担当好技术的父母
14:21
to find them good friends朋友,
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给他们找到好朋友,
14:23
to find them a good job工作.
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以及合适的工作
14:25
And so, every一切 technology技术 is sort分类 of a creative创作的 force
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那么,每一种技术都是创造力
14:27
looking for the right job工作.
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只需要找到合适的角色。
14:29
That's actually其实 my son儿子, right here.
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这实际上是我的儿子,就在这儿。
14:31
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:32
There are no bad technologies技术,
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没有坏的技术。
14:35
just as there are no bad children孩子.
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正如没有坏孩子一样。
14:37
We don't say children孩子 are neutral中性, children孩子 are positive.
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我们不会说孩子是中性的,或者孩子是阳性的。
14:39
We just have to find them the right place地点.
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我们只是要找到他们的合适位置。
14:42
And so, what technology技术 gives us,
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所以,技术带给我们的,
14:45
over the long term术语, over the sort分类 of
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从长期
14:47
extended扩展 evolution演化 -- from the beginning开始 of time,
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以延伸进化演变来看
14:49
through通过 the invention发明 of the plants植物 and animals动物,
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到植物和动物进化,
14:53
and the evolution演化 of life, the evolution演化 of brains大脑 --
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生命的进化,大脑的进化,
14:56
what that is constantly经常 giving us
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技术常常带给我们的,
14:58
is increasing增加 differences分歧:
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是不断变化的差异。
15:00
It's increasing增加 diversity多样, it's increasing增加 options选项,
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技术多样性的增加,选择性面广,
15:02
it's increasing增加 choices选择, opportunities机会,
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不同选择,机会,
15:04
possibilities可能性 and freedoms自由.
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可能性和自由的的增加。
15:06
That's what we get from technology技术
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这些就是我们一直得到的技术。
15:09
all the time. That's why people leave离开 villages村庄
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这也是为什么人类离开村庄,
15:11
and go into cities城市, is because they are always
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奔向城市,因为人们经常受到
15:13
gravitating引力 towards increased增加 choices选择 and possibilities可能性.
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各种选择和可能发生的事情的吸引。
15:17
And we are aware知道的 of the price价钱.
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我们也要意识到代价。
15:20
We pay工资 a price价钱 for that, but we are aware知道的 of it, and generally通常
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我们会付出一些代价,我们已经意识到这一点,通常
15:22
we will pay工资 the price价钱 for increased增加 freedoms自由,
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我们将为此付出更多的自由,
15:24
choices选择 and opportunities机会.
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选择和机会的代价。
15:27
Even technology技术 wants clean清洁 water.
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尽管技术想要干净的水。
15:30
Is technology技术 diametrically截然 opposed反对
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技术和自然是截然相反的
15:32
to nature性质?
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吗?
15:34
Because technology技术 is an extension延期 of life,
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因为技术是生命的延伸,
15:37
it's in parallel平行 and aligned对齐 with the same相同 things
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它是与生命想要的同样事情平行的
15:39
that life wants.
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并协同一致
15:42
So that I think technology技术 loves biology生物学,
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所以我认为技术热爱生物生命体,
15:44
if we allow允许 it to.
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如果我们也认同这一点。
15:46
Great movement运动 that is starting开始 billions数十亿 of years年份 ago
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数十亿年前开始的伟大技术变化,
15:50
is moving移动 through通过 us and it continues继续 to go,
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正在我们身边运动,并继续发展。
15:52
and our choice选择, so to speak说话,
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换句话说,在技术上,我们的选择
15:55
in technology技术, is really to align对齐 ourselves我们自己
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是我们人类
15:57
with this force much greater更大 than ourselves我们自己.
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随着这种比我们自己强大得多的力量协调一致。
15:59
So, technology技术 is more than just the stuff东东 in your pocket口袋.
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所以,技术不仅仅是在你的口袋里的东西,
16:02
It's more than just gadgets小工具; it's more than just things that people invent发明.
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更多小工具,人们发明的东西,
16:05
It's actually其实 part部分 of a very long story故事,
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而它实际上是一个很长远故事,
16:08
a great story故事, that began开始 billions数十亿 of years年份 ago.
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一个数十亿年前就开始的伟大故事的一部分,
16:11
And it's moving移动 through通过 us, this self-organization自组织,
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这种自我组织技术正朝我们走来。
16:13
and we're extending扩展 and accelerating加速 it,
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我们正在扩大并加速技术发展。
16:15
and we can be part部分 of it by aligning调心 the technology技术
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而且我们可以协调一致发明技术和应用它
16:17
that we make with it.
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成为它的一部分
16:19
I really appreciate欣赏 your attention注意 today今天. Thank you.
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非常感激你们今天的关注。谢谢
16:23
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Angelia King
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology.

Why you should listen

Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at Wired magazine (which he co-founded, and where he now holds the title of Senior Maverick), founder of visionary nonprofits and writer on biology, business and “cool tools.” He’s renounced all material things save his bicycle (which he then rode 3,000 miles), founded an organization (the All-Species Foundation) to catalog all life on Earth, championed projects that look 10,000 years into the future (at the Long Now Foundation), and more. He’s admired for his acute perspectives on technology and its relevance to history, biology and society. His new book, The Inevitable, just published, explores 12 technological forces that will shape our future.

More profile about the speaker
Kevin Kelly | Speaker | TED.com