ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Gary Lauder - Venture capitalist
Gary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute.

Why you should listen

Gary Lauder is the Managing Partner of Lauder Partners LLC, a Silicon Valley-based venture capital firm investing primarily in information technologies. He has been a venture capitalist since 1985, investing in some 60 private companies. He is also chair of ActiveVideo Networks, a developer of interactive television technology for cable, IPTV and other forms of internet delivery. Other directorships: Promptu, MediaFriends and ShotSpotter. Investments are primarily in television/IPTV technology and web arenas. 

He is the co-creator of the Aspen Institute's Socrates Society with Laura, his wife. He has had a working cable modem (usually) in his home since 1994. He is co-inventor of 10 patents, has spoken at some 80 industry forums, and, since 1992, has published several articles about the future of the cable industry ... that he still stands by.

More profile about the speaker
Gary Lauder | Speaker | TED.com
TED2010

Gary Lauder's new traffic sign: Take Turns

Gary Lauder的新路标:轮流依秩

Filmed:
633,836 views

一半的交通事故都是发生在交叉路口。Gary Lauder则提出了一不仅价格低廉又能改善路况的新路标。这种路标不但结合传统路标的特性,而且倡导文明驾驶。
- Venture capitalist
Gary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

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I only have three minutes分钟
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我只有三分钟
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so I'm going to have to talk fast快速, and it will
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所以我得说快点
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use up your spare备用 mental心理 cycles周期, so multitasking多任务处理 may可能 be hard.
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这有点劳神,因为一心多用挺累人的
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So, 27 years年份 ago I got a traffic交通 ticket
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我于27年前收到一张罚款单
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that got me thinking思维.
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这使我陷入沉思
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I've had some time to think it over.
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我想了又想
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And energy能源 efficiency效率 is more than just
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节约能源不单是
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about the vehicle车辆 --
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改造交通工具的问题
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it's also about the road.
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也是改造道路问题
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Road design设计 makes品牌 a difference区别, particularly尤其 intersections十字路口,
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道路设计,尤其是交叉路口设计尤为重要
00:37
of which哪一个 there are two types类型: signalized信号控制
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交叉路口无非就两种:有交通信号灯的路口
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and unsignalized无信号, which哪一个 means手段 stop signs迹象.
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和没交通信号灯但有路标的路口
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Fifty五十 percent百分 of crashes崩溃 happen发生 at intersections十字路口.
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近一半的事故发生在没交通信号灯的路口
00:43
Roundabouts环岛 are much better.
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环状交叉路的情况好一些
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A study研究 of 24 intersections十字路口
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研究表明
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has found发现 crashes崩溃 drop下降 40 percent百分
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当被测的24个交叉路口在改造成环状交叉路后
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from when you convert兑换 a traffic交通 light into a roundabout迂回.
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车祸事故发生率下降了40%
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Injury crashes崩溃 have dropped下降 76 percent百分,
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伤亡事故率下降了76%
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fatal致命 crashes崩溃 down 90 percent百分.
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恶性致命事故率下降了90%
00:58
But that's just safety安全.
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不过这只是从安全角度考虑
01:00
What about time and gas加油站?
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时间和燃油呢?
01:02
So, traffic交通 keeps保持 flowing流动, so that means手段 less braking制动,
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只要交通流畅,司机就不会踩急刹车
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which哪一个 means手段 less accelerating加速, less gas加油站 and less pollution污染,
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也就不会加速,也就不会浪费燃油污染环境
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less time wasted浪费,
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也不会浪费时间
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and that partly部分地 accounts账户 for Europe's欧洲 better efficiency效率
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欧洲就是这样提高能源效率的
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than we have in the United联合的 States状态.
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他们比美国做的好
01:13
So, unsignalized无信号 intersections十字路口,
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没信号灯的交叉路口
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meaning含义 stop signs迹象, they save保存 many许多 lives生活,
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只有信号牌,这可事关人命
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but there's an excessive过多 proliferation增殖 of them.
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但于欧洲,信号牌可是成倍的增长
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Small roundabouts环岛 are starting开始 to appear出现.
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小型环状交叉路也开始出现
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This is one in my neighborhood邻里. And they are
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这是我住的小区
01:25
much better -- better than traffic交通 lights灯火, better than four-way四向 stop signs迹象.
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这些环状交叉路可比信号灯和指示牌好使多了
01:28
They're expensive昂贵 to install安装,
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但价格却不菲
01:30
but they are more expensive昂贵 not to. So, we should look at that.
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要是没有它们,我们会损失惨重,所以还是考虑一下吧
01:33
But they are not applicable适用 in all situations情况.
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但不是所有路口都可以改造成环状交叉路
01:34
So, take, for example, the three-way三路 intersection路口.
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譬如说,三岔路
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So, it's logical合乎逻辑 that you'd have one there,
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在次干道和主干道交会处安装
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on the minor次要 road entering进入 the major重大的.
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三岔路是明智之举
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But the other two are somewhat有些 questionable可疑的.
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但对于另外两个次干道来说这方法不怎么可行
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So, here's这里的 one. There's another另一个 one which哪一个 I studied研究.
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我研究过这个
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Cars汽车 rarely很少 appear出现 on that third第三 road.
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车辆很少会从第三个路口开过来
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And so, the question is, what does that cost成本 us?
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这意味着什么呢?
01:51
That intersection路口 I looked看着 at had about 3,000
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我研究的交叉路口每天各个方向大约有
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cars汽车 per day in each direction方向,
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3000辆车驶过
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and so that's two ounces盎司 of gas加油站 to accelerate加速 out of.
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每踩一次油门会多消耗2盎司燃油
01:57
That's five cents each, and times 3,000 cars汽车 per day,
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每盎司耗费5美分,那么每天3000辆车
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that's $51,000 per year.
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那每年就多花费51000美元
02:02
That's just the gasoline汽油 cost成本. There is also pollution污染,
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这只不过是油钱,我还没算
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wear穿 on the car汽车, and time.
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车排放的尾气和浪费的时间
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What's that time worth价值?
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那到底浪费了多少时间呢
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Well, at 10 seconds per 3,000 cars汽车,
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每一辆车要耗费10秒钟,3000辆车就是--
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that's 8.3 hours小时 per day. The average平均 wage工资 in the U.S.
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每天八个半小时
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is $20 an hour小时. That is 60,000 per year.
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美国平均每小时工资为20美元,年工资是6万美元
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Add that together一起 with the gas加油站, and it's $112,000 per year,
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再加上油钱就是11万2千美元
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just for that sign标志 in each direction方向.
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这就是交通路标的耗资
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Discount折扣 that back to the present当下, at five percent百分:
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再加上近年来的5%的通货膨胀
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over two million百万 dollars美元
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总额超过200万
02:26
for a stop sign标志, in each direction方向.
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这就是在每个方向安装一个路标的成本
02:29
Now, if you look at what that adjacent property属性 is worth价值,
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再看看路口周围的地价
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you could actually其实 buy购买 the property属性,
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你基本上可以拿这200万买下周围的地皮
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cut down the shrubbery灌木 to improve提高 the sight视力 line线,
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砍掉灌木丛开阔一下视野
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and then sell it off again.
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然后转手卖出
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And you'd still come out ahead.
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还小有盈利
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So, it makes品牌 one wonder奇迹, "Why is it there?"
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我们不禁想:为什么?
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I mean, why is there that stop sign标志 in each direction方向?
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为什么要在每个方向装路标呢?
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Because it is saving保存 lives生活. So, is there a better way to accomplish完成 that goal目标?
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因为救人要紧。那有没有更好的方法呢?
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The answer回答 is to enable启用 cars汽车
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答案就是确保车辆
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to come in from that side road safely安然.
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安全地从另一边驶出
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Because there are a lot of people who might威力 live生活 up there
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因为那边有很多住户
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and if they're waiting等候 forever永远 a long queue队列 could form形成
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车多了难免会排成一条长龙
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because the cars汽车 aren't slowing减缓 down on the main主要 road.
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因为主干道上的车速较快
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Can that be accomplished完成 with existing现有 signs迹象?
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现有的条件下能做到这一点吗?
03:03
So, there is a long history历史 of stop signs迹象 and yield产量 signs迹象.
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交通路标的历史悠久
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Stop signs迹象 were invented发明 in 1915,
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标志“停”于1915年问世
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yield产量 signs迹象 in 1950. But that's all we got.
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标志“让”出现在1950年。我们就只有这两种路标
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So, why not use a yield产量 sign标志?
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为什么不用“让”呢?
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Well the meaning含义 of yield产量 is: You must必须 yield产量 the right-of-way正确的方法.
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因为“让”意味着离开主线
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That means手段 that if there are five cars汽车 waiting等候, you have to wait
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就是说,要有5辆车等,你也得等
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till直到 they all go, then you go. It lacks缺乏 the notion概念
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直到那5辆车开了,你才能走,
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of alternating交替, or taking服用 turns,
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没什么换道啊,转弯啊
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and it's always on the minor次要 road,
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通常主干道有
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allowing允许 the major重大的 one to have primacy首位.
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优先权
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So, it's hard to create创建 a new meaning含义 for the existing现有 sign标志.
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所以,现行的交通指示牌很难衍生出新意思
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You couldn't不能 suddenly突然 tell everyone大家, "OK, remember记得
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没人能突然宣布:
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what you used to do at yield产量 signs迹象? Now do something different不同."
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看到“让”是不要“让”
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That would not work.
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这可不行
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So, what the world世界 needs需求 now
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所以我们需要的是
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is a new type类型 of sign标志.
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新型信号
03:38
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
03:42
So, you'd have a little instruction指令 below下面 it,
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对于那些不看公共服务告示的人
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you know, for those who didn't see the public上市 service服务 announcements公告.
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新型路标下面还带有指示
03:47
And it merges合并 the stop sign标志 and yield产量 signs迹象.
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是“停”和“让”的综合体
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It's kind of shaped成形 like a T, as in taking服用 turns.
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是"T"字形的
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And uncertainty不确定 results结果 in caution警告.
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司机一旦不确定,就会提高警惕
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When people come to an unfamiliar陌生 situation情况 they don't know how to deal合同 with
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人们在不熟悉的环境下不确定时
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they slow down.
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会减速慢行
03:59
So, now that you are all "Road Scholars学者" ...
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那大家现在都是道路专家了
04:01
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
04:02
don't wait for that sign标志 to be adopted采用, these things don't change更改 quickly很快.
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但别指望这会很快实现,这个过程总是漫长的
04:05
But you all are members会员 of communities社区,
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作为社区的一员
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and you can exercise行使 your community社区 influence影响
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每人都有义务
04:09
to create创建 more sensible明智 traffic交通 flows流动.
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确保交通的合理顺畅
04:11
And you can have more impact碰撞 on the environment环境
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你我皆能为环境保护作出贡献
04:13
just getting得到 your neighborhood邻里 to change更改 these things
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只需以身作则,影响身边的人
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than by changing改变 your vehicle车辆. Thank you very much.
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大家一起行动来改善交通工具吧。谢谢
04:18
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Wang Qian
Reviewed by Chaoran Yu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Gary Lauder - Venture capitalist
Gary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute.

Why you should listen

Gary Lauder is the Managing Partner of Lauder Partners LLC, a Silicon Valley-based venture capital firm investing primarily in information technologies. He has been a venture capitalist since 1985, investing in some 60 private companies. He is also chair of ActiveVideo Networks, a developer of interactive television technology for cable, IPTV and other forms of internet delivery. Other directorships: Promptu, MediaFriends and ShotSpotter. Investments are primarily in television/IPTV technology and web arenas. 

He is the co-creator of the Aspen Institute's Socrates Society with Laura, his wife. He has had a working cable modem (usually) in his home since 1994. He is co-inventor of 10 patents, has spoken at some 80 industry forums, and, since 1992, has published several articles about the future of the cable industry ... that he still stands by.

More profile about the speaker
Gary Lauder | Speaker | TED.com