TED2010
Sebastian Wernicke: Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)
谎言，(关于TEDTalks的)超级谎言和统计数据
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通过这个精彩而颇为搞怪的分析，Sebatian Wernicke把统计分析工具应用到了历来TED的讲座，提出了其余用户评分的一种创造”最优的TED讲座“的体系。你会如何给他评分呢？会觉得无比惊奇？或是缺乏说服力？还是玩的就是搞笑呢？
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientist
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
If you go on the TED website,
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如果你去TED的网站
00:19
you can currently find there
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你会发现
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over a full week of TEDTalk videos,
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整整一周TED讲座的视频
00:24
over 1.3 million
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超过一百三十万字
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words of transcripts
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的讲稿
00:28
and millions of user ratings.
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以及数以百万计的用户评分
00:30
And that's a huge amount of data.
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那么，这可以说是海量的数据
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And it got me wondering:
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于是我就开始思考
00:35
If you took all this data
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如果我们对这些数据
00:37
and put it through statistical analysis,
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进行统计分析
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could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk?
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有没有可能通过逆向工程制作出一个TED演讲？
00:41
Could you create
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我们能不能创造出
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the ultimate TEDTalk?
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所谓的终极TED演讲？
00:45
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（掌声）
00:47
And also, could you create
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此外，我们能不能创造出
00:49
the worst possible TEDTalk
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最烂的TED演讲
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that they would still let you get away with?
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并能侥幸逃脱？
00:53
To find this out, I looked at three things:
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为了得到答案，我关注了三个方面
00:55
I looked at the topic that you should choose,
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我看了看应该选择什么样的命题
00:57
I looked at how you should deliver it
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还看了要用怎样的方式将这个演讲传达给观众
01:00
and the visuals onstage.
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以及你的视觉辅助工具
01:02
Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose,
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你可以选择的命题范围很广，
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but you should choose wisely,
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但是你要很明智的去选
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because your topic strongly correlates
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因为你选择的题目
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with how users will react to your talk.
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将紧密关系到观众很如何看待你的演讲
01:12
Now, to make this more concrete,
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更具体一点的说
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let's look at the list of top 10 words
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让我们一起来关注
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that statistically stick out
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在最热门以及最冷门的TED讲座中
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in the most favorite TEDTalks
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有突出统计数据的——
01:21
and in the least favorite TEDTalks.
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十大经典词汇
01:24
So if you came here
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所以说如果
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to talk about how French coffee
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你想谈论法式咖啡
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will spread happiness in our brains,
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能如何在我们头脑中散播快乐的话
01:31
that's a go.
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这绝对是个好题目
01:33
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（掌声）
01:35
Whereas, if you wanted to talk about
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但是，如果你想谈论
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your project involving
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一个有关
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oxygen, girls, aircraft --
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氧气、女生、飞行器之类的项目
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actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter)
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其实我还挺想听这个演讲的
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but statistics say it's not so good.
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但从统计数据上来看，它就很一般般
01:45
Oh, well.
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所以呢
01:47
If you generalize this,
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如果你延伸这一想法
01:49
the most favorite TEDTalks are those
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最热门的TED演讲是
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that feature topics we can connect with,
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那些能令观众产生共鸣的，
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both easily and deeply,
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既简单易懂，而又意味深远的话题
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such as happiness, our own body,
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譬如：幸福，我们自己的肢体
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food, emotions.
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食物，情感
02:00
And the more technical topics,
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然而，相对技术性的题目
02:02
such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men,
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比如说，建筑，材料，和令人奇怪的关于男人的讨论。
02:05
those are not good topics to talk about.
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这些并不是很受欢迎的主题
02:08
How should you deliver your talk?
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那我们应该如何去做演讲呢？
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TED is famous for keeping
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TED有一点很擅长
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a very sharp eye on the clock,
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那就是卡时间
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so they're going to hate me
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我的以下言论
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for revealing this, because, actually,
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可能会让他们对我很不爽
02:18
you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter)
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因为其实呢，你应该在允许范围内尽可能的多讲
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Because the most favorite TEDTalks
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原因是：最受欢迎的那些TED演讲
02:23
are, on average, over 50 percent longer
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长度平均比最不受欢迎的演讲
02:25
than the least favorite ones.
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要长百分之五十
02:28
And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com
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这适用于大多TED.com的榜上的讲座
02:30
except if you want to have a talk
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除非你的讲座被列为
02:32
that's beautiful, inspiring or funny.
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唯美，励志或是风趣
02:34
Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that,
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这样的话你应该比较简短。但除此之外，
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talk until they drag you off the stage.
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一直讲到他们把你拖下讲台为止
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(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:41
Now, while ...
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现在呢
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(Applause)
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（掌声）
02:49
While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey.
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当你卡着表漫谈的时候，你要遵守几条规矩
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I found these rules out by comparing the statistics
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我是通过
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of four-word phrases
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对最受欢迎和最不受欢迎的TED演讲中经常出现的“四字短语”
02:56
that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks
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的数据进行比较
02:59
as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks.
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而得出的结论
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I'll give you three examples.
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我在这里讲三个例子
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First of all, I must, as a speaker,
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首先，作为一个讲演者，我必须
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provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you,
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为观众提供一种服务，介绍我所能提供的信息
03:08
instead of saying what I can't have.
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而不是一味提我不能提供的
03:10
Secondly, it's imperative
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此外
03:12
that you do not cite The New York Times.
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避免引用纽约时报是很有必要的
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(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:16
And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news --
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最后呢，这是好消息：
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to fake intellectual capacity.
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演讲人是可以适度伪装博学的
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If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc."
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如果我有不明白的东西，我大抵可以说“等等，等等”
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You'll all stay with me.
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观众们就还都比较信服
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It's perfectly fine.
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这都是可以的
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(Applause)
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（掌声）
03:32
Now, let's go to the visuals.
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现在，我们来看视觉辅助工具
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The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker.
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演讲人本身是最明显的视觉工具
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And analysis shows if you want to be
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分析结果表明，如果你想
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among the most favorite TED speakers,
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步入最受欢迎的演讲者之列的话
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you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average,
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你该把头发留得比一般人略长一些
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make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up
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记得戴上眼镜，并且比其他演讲者
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than the average TED speaker.
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穿得更正式一点
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Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props.
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可以有幻灯，但道具效果往往更好
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And now the most important thing,
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那么现在，最重要的一点
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that is the mood onstage.
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就是你在台上创造的氛围
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Color plays a very important role.
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颜色常常扮演很重要的角色
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Color closely correlates
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颜色是与TED网站上的评分
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with the ratings that talks get on the website.
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密切相关的
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(Applause)
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（掌声）
04:05
For example, fascinating talks
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例如：据统计，
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contain a statistically high amount
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相对普通讲座而言
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of exactly this blue color, (Laughter)
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震撼人心的讲座
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much more than the average TEDTalk.
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会包含大量的蓝色基调
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Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color,
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创意新颖的TED讲座，则会有更多的绿色
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etc., et.
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等等，等等
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(Laughter) (Applause)
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（掌声）
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Now, personally, I think
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我个人认为
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I'm not the first one who has done this analysis,
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我恐怕不是第一个做过这类分析的人
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but I'll leave this
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但是我还要
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to your good judgment.
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让诸位自己去判断
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So, now it's time to put it all together
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那么现在，该是把这些综合到一起
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and design the ultimate TEDTalk.
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来设计出终极的TED演讲的时候了
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Now, since this is TEDActive,
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不过这里毕竟还是TED Active
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and I learned from my analysis
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我也从我的分析结果中认识到
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that I should actually give you something,
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我到底还是要给大家一些什么
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I will not impose the ultimate
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我就不一味对大家强调
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or worst TEDTalk on you,
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所谓终极或是最烂的TED讲座
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but rather give you a tool to create your own.
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而是提供给大家创造你自己版本所需的工具
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And I call this tool the TEDPad.
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我称之为TED Pad （影射iPad）
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(Laughter)
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(笑声)
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And the TEDPad is a matrix
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TED Pad其实就是一个
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of 100 specifically selected,
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由100个精选句式
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highly curated sentences
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组成的矩阵
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that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk.
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你可以利用它在轻松拼凑出你想要的TED讲座
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You only have to make one decision,
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你只需要做一个决定
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and that is: Are you going to use the white version
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那就是：你要用白色版本
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for very good TEDTalks,
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来创造
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about creativity, human genius?
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关于创造力和人类才干的极好的TED演讲
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Or are you going to go with a black version,
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还是要用黑色版本
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which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks,
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来创作
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mostly about blogs,
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关于博客，政治那些玩意儿的
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politics and stuff?
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极烂的TED演讲
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So, download it and have fun with it.
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所以，各位可以去下载下来，并慢慢玩味
05:25
Now I hope you enjoy the session.
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希望你们喜欢我的演讲
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I hope you enjoy designing your own
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也希望你们今后创作自己最好或最差演讲的过程中
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ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks.
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也充满着乐趣
05:32
And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year
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我更希望你们中的一些人，能够受到鼓舞
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to create this, which I really want to see.
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并有所创作，我真的很期待听到你们的演讲。
05:38
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
05:40
(Applause) Thanks.
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientistAfter making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects.
Why you should listen
Dr. Sebastian Wernicke is the Chief Data Scientist of ONE LOGIC, a data science boutique that supports organizations across industries to make sense of their vast data collections to improve operations and gain strategic advantages. Wernicke originally studied bioinformatics and previously led the strategy and growth of Seven Bridges Genomics, a Cambridge-based startup that builds platforms for genetic analysis.
Before his career in statistics began, Wernicke worked stints as both a paramedic and successful short animated filmmaker. He's also the author of the TEDPad app, an irreverent tool for creating an infinite number of "amazing and really bad" and mostly completely meaningless talks. He's the author of the statistically authoritative and yet completely ridiculous "How to Give the Perfect TEDTalk."
Sebastian Wernicke | Speaker | TED.com