TEDGlobal 2010
Lee Hotz: Inside an Antarctic time machine
李·霍兹：南极洲的时间机器
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科学专栏作家李·霍兹介绍了目前在南极洲西部冰原区进行的庞大计划，在那里有一支队伍通过钻探具有一万年历史的冰块以获取关于气候变化的关键数据。
Robert Lee Hotz - Journalist
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Come with me to the bottom of the world,
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请与我一起来到世界的最底部
00:18
Antarctica,
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南极洲，
00:20
the highest, driest, windiest,
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最高，最为干燥，风力最为强劲的区域
00:22
and yes, coldest region on Earth --
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并且也是地球上最为寒冷的地方--
00:25
more arid than the Sahara
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比撒哈拉沙漠更为干燥
00:27
and, in parts, colder than Mars.
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并且在部分区域比火星还要寒冷。
00:29
The ice of Antarctica glows
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南极洲的冰块
00:31
with a light so dazzling,
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在阳光的照耀下非常刺眼，
00:33
it blinds the unprotected eye.
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它甚至可让你失明。
00:35
Early explorers rubbed cocaine in their eyes
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早期的探险者把可卡因涂在眼睛里面
00:37
to kill the pain of it.
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以抑制那难以忍受的疼痛。
00:39
The weight of the ice is such that the entire continent
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南极洲庞大冰块的大部分重量
00:42
sags below sea level, beneath its weight.
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隐藏于海平面之下。
00:45
Yet, the ice of Antarctica
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同时，南极洲的冰块
00:47
is a calendar of climate change.
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还是记录气候变化的日历。
00:49
It records the annual rise and fall
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它记录了从冰河时代开始至今
00:51
of greenhouse gases and temperatures
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每年温室气体和温度
00:53
going back before the onset of the last ice ages.
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的增长和下降。
00:56
Nowhere on Earth
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地球上没有任何一个其它地方可以
00:58
offers us such a perfect record.
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为我们提供如此良好的历史记录。
01:01
And here, scientists are drilling
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在这里，科学家们正在钻探着
01:03
into the past of our planet
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我们星球过去的历史
01:05
to find clues to the future
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以寻找到通向
01:07
of climate change.
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未来气候变化的线索。
01:09
This past January,
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在刚过去的一月里，
01:11
I traveled to a place called WAIS Divide,
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我来到了名为南极洲西部冰原区，
01:13
about 600 miles from the South Pole.
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一个大约位于距离南极点600英里处的区域。
01:15
It is the best place on the planet, many say,
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很多人说这里是探索星球的最佳地点，
01:18
to study the history of climate change.
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可以探索研究气候变化的历史。
01:20
There, about 45 scientists from the University of Wisconsin,
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这里约有45名来自威斯康辛大学，
01:23
the Desert Research Institute in Nevada and others
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内华达的沙漠研究中心和其它机构的科学家，
01:26
have been working to answer a central question
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他们正致力于回答关于
01:28
about global warming.
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全球变暖的关键疑问。
01:30
What is the exact relationship
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在温室气体程度
01:32
between levels of greenhouse gases
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和星球温度之间
01:35
and planetary temperatures?
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到底存在什么样的关系？
01:37
It's urgent work. We know that temperatures are rising.
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这是非常紧迫的工作．我们知道温度在不断上升。
01:40
This past May was the warmest worldwide on record.
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刚过去的五月是有记录以来最温暖的五月。
01:43
And we know that levels of greenhouse gases are rising too.
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并且我们也知道温室气体在不断增加。
01:46
What we don't know
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但是我们还不了解的是
01:48
is the exact, precise, immediate
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这些变化将会给
01:50
impact of these changes
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自然气候带来
01:52
on natural climate patterns --
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怎样精确即时的影响--
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winds, ocean currents,
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比如暴风，海洋流，
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precipitation rates, cloud formation,
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沉淀率，风云信息等，
01:59
things that bear on the health and well-being
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这些因素影响着
02:01
of billions of people.
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亿万人民健康和生活水平。
02:04
Their entire camp, every item of gear,
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他们整个研究所，包括每个齿轮
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was ferried 885 miles
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都是从位于美国在南极洲海岸
02:09
from McMurdo Station,
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设立的供应基地
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the main U.S. supply base
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---麦克默多站
02:13
on the coast of Antarctica.
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横渡搬运885公里到此。
02:15
WAIS Divide itself though,
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虽然南极洲西部冰原区仅是
02:17
is a circle of tents in the snow.
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位于大雪中的一圈帐篷，
02:20
In blizzard winds, the crew sling ropes between the tents
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在暴风雪中，帐篷将会被钢丝绳连接在一起，
02:23
so that people can feel their way safely
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这样人们可以感觉到
02:26
to the nearest ice house
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从最近的冰屋
02:28
and to the nearest outhouse.
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到最近的外屋而更有安全感。
02:30
It snows so heavily there,
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在这里暴风雪非常惊人，
02:32
the installation was almost immediately buried.
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设施曾经几乎在一瞬间被毁。
02:34
Indeed, the researchers picked this site
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确实，研究学者们之所以挑选这里
02:37
because ice and snow accumulates here
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是因为在这里冰和雪的积累速度
02:39
10 times faster than anywhere else in Antarctica.
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比南极洲的其它任何地方都快十倍。
02:42
They have to dig themselves out every day.
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每天他们都得把自己从雪中挖出来。
02:45
It makes for an exotic
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这可是一条很奇异
02:47
and chilly commute.
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并且很寒冷的通行路。
02:49
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:51
But under the surface
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但是在这表面之下，
02:53
is a hive of industrial activity
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他们围绕着一台八百万美元的钻机正进行着积极的工业
02:56
centered around an eight-million-dollar drill assembly.
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探索。
02:59
Periodically, this drill, like a biopsy needle,
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每隔一段时间这台钻机就像活检针检查一样
03:02
plunges thousands of feet deep into the ice
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深入上千英尺的冰层中
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to extract a marrow of gases
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抽取出气体的精华
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and isotopes for analysis.
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和同位体以应用于分析。
03:10
Ten times a day, they extract
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每天十次，他们提取
03:12
the 10-foot long cylinder of compressed ice crystals
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十英尺长的压缩冰晶柱
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that contain the unsullied air and trace chemicals
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其中包含了
03:17
laid down by snow,
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在经过了上千年的历史更迭之后雪层下
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season after season for thousands of years.
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未经污染的气体和轨迹化学物。
03:24
It's really a time machine.
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它就像一台时间机器。
03:26
At the peak of activity earlier this year,
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在今年早些时候的探索高峰期时，
03:29
the researchers lowered the drill
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研究者们把钻头再往冰层中
03:32
an extra hundred feet deeper into the ice every day
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多钻探了一百多英尺，
03:35
and another 365 years
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从而了解了
03:37
deeper into the past.
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比之前更早的365年的历史。
03:40
Periodically, they remove
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他们定期地
03:42
a cylinder of ice,
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除去冰柱
03:44
like gamekeepers popping a spent shotgun shell
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就像看守员从钻头的外壳上
03:46
from the barrel of a drill.
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除掉老化的外壳。
03:50
They inspect it, they check it for cracks,
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他们对其进行检测以检查，
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for drill damage, for spalls, for chips.
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是否有裂缝，有钻头破损裂开等。
03:56
More importantly,
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更为重要的是，
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they prepare it for inspection and analysis
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他们为位于美国和欧洲的
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by 27 independent laboratories
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27个独立实验室提供样品以
04:02
in the United States and Europe,
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进行检测和分析，
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who will examine it for 40 different trace chemicals
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他们可以检测到与气候相关的
04:06
related to climate,
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四十种不同的轨迹化合物，
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some in parts per quadrillion.
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有的含量仅为百万的四次乘方（一千万亿）之一。
04:11
Yes, I said that with a Q, quadrillion.
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是的，我是指这个百万的四次乘方（一千万亿）。
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They cut the cylinders up into three-foot sections
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他们将冰柱分割成为三英尺的小块
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for easier handling and shipment
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为离钻头点约8000英里外的这些实验室中提供更为方便的
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back to these labs,
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操作和冰柱搬运
04:20
some 8,000 miles from the drill site.
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。
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Each cylinder
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每个冰柱都是
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is a parfait of time.
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时间的真实记录。
04:28
This ice formed as snow
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这些冰块大约
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15,800 years ago,
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15800年前形成雪，
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when our ancestors were daubing themselves with paint
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那个时候我们祖先还在玩弄着涂料
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and considering the radical new technology
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并在思考着关于
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of the alphabet.
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字母的新技术。
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Bathed in polarized light
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在极光的浸沐下
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and cut in cross-section,
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被切成截面的
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this ancient ice reveals itself
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这古代的冰块
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as a mosaic of colors,
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展示出了某种马塞克色彩，
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each one showing how conditions at depth in the ice
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每一个都展现出在冰块中的深度
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have affected this material
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如何影响了这种材料
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at depths where pressures can reach
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在不同深度时
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a ton per square inch.
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压力可达到每平方英寸一吨。
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Every year, it begins with a snowflake,
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每年都下雪，
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and by digging into fresh snow,
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从而钻探进入最新鲜的雪层，
05:08
we can see how this process is ongoing today.
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今天可以看到这个过程是如何进行的。
05:11
This wall of undisturbed snow,
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在未经开采的雪层下，
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back-lit by sunlight,
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太阳光所造成的背光
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shows the striations of winter and summer snow,
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映射出冬雪和夏雪的条纹，
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layer upon layer.
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一层接着一层。
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Each storm scours the atmosphere,
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每次暴风雪席卷着大气，
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washing out dust, soot,
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冲洗掉灰尘，煤烟，
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trace chemicals,
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踪迹化学物，
05:30
and depositing them on the snow pack
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并将其沉淀于雪层上
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year after year,
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年复一年，
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millennia after millennia,
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成千上万年，
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creating a kind of periodic table of elements
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形成了
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that at this point
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在这里
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is more than 11,000 feet thick.
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超过11000英尺厚的雪层中的这种时代周期表。
05:44
From this, we can detect an extraordinary number of things.
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从中我们可以检测到种类繁多的物质。
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We can see the calcium
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我们可以找到
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from the world's deserts,
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来自世界沙漠的钙，
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soot from distant wildfires,
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来自遥远野火的煤烟，
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methane as an indicator of the strength of a Pacific monsoon,
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来自太平洋雨季的指示物甲烷，
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all wafted on winds from warmer latitudes
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它们都从温暖的地方
06:01
to this remote and very cold place.
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来到这遥远寒冷的地方。
06:04
Most importantly,
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最为重要的是，
06:06
these cylinders and this snow
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这些冰柱和雪层
06:08
trap air.
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可捕捉气体。
06:10
Each cylinder is about 10 percent ancient air,
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每个冰柱大约含有10%的古代气体
06:13
a pristine time capsule
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是关于温室气体的
06:15
of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide,
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原始纯净信息---二氧化碳，
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methane, nitrous oxide --
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甲烷和氧化氮--
06:19
all unchanged from the day that snow formed
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从雪形成且落下的那天开始
06:22
and first fell.
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便未曾发生变化。
06:24
And this is the object of their scrutiny.
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这便是他们的调查对象。
06:27
But don't we already know
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但是难道我们不是已经知道了
06:29
what we need to know about greenhouse gases?
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关于温室气体所需要知道的信息吗？
06:31
Why do we need to study this anymore?
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为什么我们还需要进一步研究它呢？
06:33
Don't we already know how they affect temperatures?
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难道我们不是已经知道它如何影响气温吗？
06:35
Don't we already know the consequences
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难道我们不是已经知道了变化的气候
06:38
of a changing climate on our settled civilization?
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所带来的结果将如何影响我们的文明社会吗？
06:41
The truth is, we only know the outlines,
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事实是，我们仅仅知道其大致轮廓，
06:44
and what we don't completely understand,
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并非是完全彻底理解，
06:46
we can't properly fix.
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甚至我们不能完好地对其进行修复。
06:48
Indeed, we run the risk of making things worse.
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事实上，我们还冒着把事情弄得更糟的风险。
06:51
Consider, the single most successful
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20世纪最为成功的
06:54
international environmental effort of the 20th century,
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国际环境保护条例，
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the Montreal Protocol,
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蒙特利尔法案
06:59
in which the nations of Earth banded together to protect the planet
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旨在联合世界各国以保护我们的星球免于
07:02
from the harmful effects of ozone-destroying chemicals
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受到当时在空调，电冰箱和其它冷却设备中
07:05
used at that time
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广泛使用中的
07:07
in air conditioners, refrigerators and other cooling devices.
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臭氧破坏化学物的影响。
07:10
We banned those chemicals,
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我们禁止了这些化学物
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and we replaced them, unknowingly,
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而使用了其它我们未知的物质
07:15
with other substances
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进行了替换,
07:17
that, molecule per molecule,
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而每一个新物质分子
07:19
are a hundred times more potent
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都比二氧化碳
07:21
as heat-trapping, greenhouse gases
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更为可能成为
07:23
than carbon dioxide.
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传热的温室气体。
07:26
This process requires
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这样的过程需要
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extraordinary precautions.
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特别的谨慎预防。
07:31
The scientists must insure
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科学家们必须确保
07:33
that the ice is not contaminated.
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冰层未受到污染。
07:35
Moreover, in this 8,000-mile journey,
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并且在这长达8000英里的旅途中，
07:37
they have to insure this ice doesn't melt.
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他们必须得确保冰不会融化。
07:39
Imagine juggling a snowball across the tropics.
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想象一下夹着雪球穿过热带地区吧。
07:43
They have to, in fact,
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他们必须得确保
07:45
make sure this ice never gets warmer
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冰不会变得
07:47
than about 20 degrees below zero,
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高于零下20度，
07:49
otherwise, the key gases inside it will dissipate.
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否则其中的关键气体就会挥发。
07:52
So, in the coldest place on Earth,
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因此在地球最为寒冷的地区
07:55
they work inside a refrigerator.
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他们就像在电冰箱中工作一样。
07:58
As they handle the ice, in fact,
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当他们操作冰雪时，事实上
08:00
they keep an extra pair of gloves warming in an oven,
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他们还预留一双置于烤箱中的手套，
08:02
so that, when their work gloves freeze
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因为当他们的工作手套冻结时，
08:04
and their fingers stiffen,
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他们的手指变得僵硬，
08:06
they can don a fresh pair.
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他们可以更换上预备手套来暖手。
08:08
They work against the clock and against the thermometer.
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他们与时间和温差进行着斗争。
08:11
So far, they've packed up
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目前为止，他们已经堆积了
08:13
about 4,500 feet of ice cores
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大约4500英尺的冰雪，
08:17
for shipment back to the United States.
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这些冰雪都将会被运回美国。
08:19
This past season,
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在刚过去的季节中，
08:21
they manhandled them across the ice
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他们将这些冰雪搬运出冰层
08:23
to waiting aircraft.
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以等待空中运送飞机。
08:25
The 109th Air National Guard
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109号空军护卫队
08:28
flew the most recent shipment of ice
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将最近的冰雪运到
08:30
back to the coast of Antarctica,
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南极洲海岸，
08:32
where it was boarded onto a freighter,
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在这里将会被搬上货轮，
08:35
shipped across the tropics to California,
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穿过热带以来到加利福尼亚，
08:38
unloaded, put on a truck,
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卸货并装运上货车，
08:40
driven across the desert
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穿过沙漠
08:42
to the National Ice Core Laboratory in Denver, Colorado,
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抵达位于科罗拉多州丹佛的国家冰雪中心研究室，
08:44
where, as we speak,
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在那里，正于我们所说的那样，
08:46
scientists are now slicing this material up
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科学家将材料切成片
08:48
for samples, for analysis,
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以制成样品用于分析，
08:50
to be distributed
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再将样品分送到
08:52
to the laboratories around the country
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全国各地和欧洲
08:54
and in Europe.
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的实验室里。
08:57
Antarctica was this planet's
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南极洲是星球上
09:00
last empty quarter --
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最后的---
09:02
the blind spot
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不断扩张的世界中
09:04
in our expanding vision of the world.
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唯一的盲点。
09:06
Early explorers
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早期的探险家们
09:08
sailed off the edge of the map,
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航海来到了地图的这边缘地带南极洲，
09:10
and they found a place
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并且他们找到某个
09:12
where the normal rules of time and temperature
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似乎传统的时间和温度规则
09:14
seem suspended.
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都不再有效的区域。
09:18
Here, the ice seems a living presence.
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在这里，冰雪就如同活生生的存在。
09:21
The wind that rubs against it
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暴风雪不断地侵蚀着南极洲，
09:23
gives it voice.
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赐于它独特的魅力。
09:26
It is a voice of experience.
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这是一种有魅力的体验。
09:29
It is a voice we should heed.
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而这正是我们所需要的嗓音。
09:33
Thank you.
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谢谢你们。
09:35
(Applause)
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(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Lee Hotz - JournalistRobert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole.
Why you should listen
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he explores the world of new research and its impact on society. In his column, he ranges broadly across the research horizon, from climate change, cosmology and molecular medicine, to evolution, neuroeconomics and new insights into the human brain. Hotz was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 1986 for his coverage of genetic engineering issues, and again in 2004 for his coverage of the space shuttle Columbia accident. Mr. Hotz shared in The Los Angeles Times’ 1995 Pulitzer Prize for articles about the Northridge Earthquake.
Hotz is a director of the Alicia Patterson Foundation, which funds independent journalism projects around the world, and a distinguished writer in residence at New York University. He is the author of Designs on Life, Exploring the New Frontiers of Human Fertility, and a contributor to several books on research issues.
Robert Lee Hotz | Speaker | TED.com