ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.

Why you should listen

Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.

More profile about the speaker
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com
TED2011

Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

Edward Tenner談無心插柳

Filmed:
873,460 views

每一樣發明都改變著這個世界--不論是有意識的或無意識的。歷史學家Edward Tenner聊我們「發明的東西」和「其預期成效」之間,無法事先預見的落差。
- Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
I didn't always love unintended意外 consequences後果,
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我並不是一直很喜歡始料未及的後果,
00:18
but I've really learned學到了 to appreciate欣賞 them.
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但我已經學著欣賞他們了。
00:20
I've learned學到了 that they're really the essence本質
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我已經學到這是
00:22
of what makes品牌 for progress進展,
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我們進步的原動力,
00:24
even when they seem似乎 to be terrible可怕.
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就算這些後果可能是很可怕的
00:27
And I'd like to review評論
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所以我想要談談
00:29
just how unintended意外 consequences後果
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這些始料未及的後果
00:32
play the part部分 that they do.
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是如何扮演它們的角色的。
00:35
Let's go to 40,000 years年份 before the present當下,
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讓我們回到四萬年前,
00:40
to the time of the cultural文化 explosion爆炸,
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一段文明爆炸的時間,
00:44
when music音樂, art藝術, technology技術,
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一段音樂、藝術、科技,
00:49
so many許多 of the things that we're enjoying享受 today今天,
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這些我們現在所享受的東西,
00:51
so many許多 of the things that are being存在 demonstrated證明 at TEDTED
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很多在TED被展示的東西
00:54
were born天生.
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開始的時代。
00:56
And the anthropologist人類學家 Randall蘭德爾 White白色
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人類學家Randall White
00:59
has made製作 a very interesting有趣 observation意見:
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觀察到一個很有趣的現象:
01:02
that if our ancestors祖先
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就是就算我們的祖先
01:04
40,000 years年份 ago
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在四萬年前
01:06
had been able能夠 to see
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已經可以看到
01:09
what they had doneDONE,
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他們做了什麼,
01:11
they wouldn't不會 have really understood了解 it.
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他們仍然沒有辦法完全瞭解。
01:13
They were responding響應
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他們只是對著
01:15
to immediate即時 concerns關注.
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當下的問題做反應。
01:18
They were making製造 it possible可能 for us
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他們只是想要讓我們
01:20
to do what they do,
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可以做到他們所做的,
01:22
and yet然而, they didn't really understand理解
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但他們不完全瞭解
01:24
how they did it.
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他們是如何辦到的。
01:26
Now let's advance提前 to 10,000 years年份 before the present當下.
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現在,讓我們來到一萬年前。
01:31
And this is when it really gets得到 interesting有趣.
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而這會變得很有趣。
01:33
What about the domestication馴化 of grains穀物?
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穀類是如何被馴化的?
01:36
What about the origins起源 of agriculture農業?
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農業是如何開始的?
01:39
What would our ancestors祖先 10,000 years年份 ago
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一萬年前的人
01:42
have said
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如果有科技評估報告的話
01:44
if they really had technology技術 assessment評定?
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他們會怎麼說?
01:46
And I could just imagine想像 the committees委員會
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我可以想像
01:48
reporting報告 back to them
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委員會向他們報告
01:50
on where agriculture農業 was going to take humanity人性,
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至少在接下來的幾百年間,
01:53
at least最小 in the next下一個 few少數 hundred years年份.
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農業如何影響人類
01:56
It was really bad news新聞.
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這真的是壞消息。
01:58
First of all, worse更差 nutrition營養,
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第一,較差的營養,
02:00
maybe shorter life spans跨度.
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有可能會造成較短的生命。
02:02
It was simply只是 awful可怕 for women婦女.
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對女人來說更是糟糕。
02:04
The skeletal骨骼 remains遺跡 from that period
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從那段時間留下的骨骸
02:06
have shown顯示 that they were grinding磨碎 grain糧食 morning早上, noon中午 and night.
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告訴我們他們從早到晚都在磨穀子。
02:11
And politically政治上, it was awful可怕.
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政治上也很糟糕。
02:14
It was the beginning開始 of a much higher更高 degree
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那是人群間更加不平等
02:17
of inequality不等式 among其中 people.
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的開始。
02:20
If there had been rational合理的 technology技術 assessment評定 then,
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如果當時有很理性的科技評估報告,
02:23
I think they very well might威力 have said,
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我認為他們很有可能說:
02:25
"Let's call the whole整個 thing off."
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「讓我們中止這個案子吧。」
02:28
Even now, our choices選擇 are having unintended意外 effects效果.
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就算是現在,我們的選擇仍然有很始料未及的後果。
02:32
Historically歷史, for example,
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歷史上,舉例來說,
02:34
chopsticks筷子 -- according根據 to one Japanese日本 anthropologist人類學家
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筷子--根據日本人類學家
02:37
who wrote a dissertation論文 about it
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在密西根大學
02:39
at the University大學 of Michigan密歇根州 --
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寫的研究報告--
02:41
resulted導致 in long-term長期 changes變化
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已長期性地造成
02:44
in the dentition牙列, in the teeth,
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日本大眾牙齒中牙列
02:46
of the Japanese日本 public上市.
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的改變。
02:48
And we are also changing改變 our teeth right now.
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而且我們現在也正在改變我們的牙齒。
02:51
There is evidence證據
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這是人類
02:53
that the human人的 mouth and teeth
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嘴巴和牙齒正在
02:55
are growing生長 smaller all the time.
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越長越小的證據。
02:57
That's not necessarily一定 a bad unintended意外 consequence後果.
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那並不表示這個始料未及的後果一定是不好的。
03:00
But I think from the point of view視圖 of a Neanderthal尼安德特人,
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但我認為以尼安德塔人的觀點來看,
03:02
there would have been a lot of disapproval不贊成
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他們對於我們現在擁有的切菜器
03:04
of the wimpishwimpish choppers菜刀 that we now have.
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會有很多不贊成的聲音。
03:07
So these things are kind of relative相對的
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所以這些事其實是相對的,
03:10
to where you or your ancestors祖先 happen發生 to stand.
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與你和你的祖先間的關係有關。
03:14
In the ancient world世界
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在古早時代,
03:16
there was a lot of respect尊重 for unintended意外 consequences後果,
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大家很尊重這些始料未及的後果,
03:19
and there was a very healthy健康 sense of caution警告,
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且也有很健康的謹慎感,
03:22
reflected反射的 in the Tree of Knowledge知識,
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像是智慧樹,
03:24
in Pandora's潘多拉 Box,
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像是潘朵拉的盒子;
03:26
and especially特別 in the myth神話 of Prometheus普羅米修斯
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尤其體現在普羅米修斯的神話中,
03:28
that's been so important重要
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亦是近幾年來
03:30
in recent最近 metaphors隱喻 about technology技術.
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常被用在科技的隱喻。
03:32
And that's all very true真正.
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而這些都是真的。
03:35
The physicians醫師 of the ancient world世界 --
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遠古時代的醫生--
03:37
especially特別 the Egyptians埃及人,
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尤其是埃及人--
03:39
who started開始 medicine醫學 as we know it --
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近代醫學的開創者--
03:41
were very conscious意識
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是非常謹慎地對待
03:43
of what they could and couldn't不能 treat對待.
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可以治及不可以治的課題。
03:45
And the translations譯文 of the surviving倖存 texts文本 say,
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而在現存的文本上說到:
03:50
"This I will not treat對待. This I cannot不能 treat對待."
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「這個我可以治。這個我不能治。」
03:52
They were very conscious意識.
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他們是非常謹慎的。
03:54
So were the followers追隨者 of Hippocrates希波克拉底.
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希波克拉底斯的跟隨者也是如此。
03:56
The Hippocratic希波克拉底 manuscripts手稿 also --
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根據現今的研究,
03:58
repeatedly反复, according根據 to recent最近 studies學習 --
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希波克拉底斯的手稿一再地提到
04:01
show顯示 how important重要 it is not to do harm危害.
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不造成傷害是多麼重要的。
04:04
More recently最近,
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更近一點,
04:06
Harvey哈維 Cushing庫欣,
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哈維庫欣,
04:08
who really developed發達 neurosurgery神經外科 as we know it,
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也就是讓神經外科手術發展成現今樣子的人,
04:10
who changed it from a field領域 of medicine醫學
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一個完全改寫此一醫學領域的人,
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that had a majority多數 of deaths死亡 resulting造成 from surgery手術
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亦是一個從一開始大部份手術失敗
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to one in which哪一個 there was a hopeful有希望 outlook外表,
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到後來成為執行手術最有希望成功的人,
04:20
he was very conscious意識
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他是非常謹慎的,
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that he was not always going to do the right thing.
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但他不見得每一次都做對了。
04:25
But he did his best最好,
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但他已經盡力了,
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and he kept不停 meticulous細緻 records記錄
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他做了非常精細的紀錄,
04:29
that let him transform轉變 that branch of medicine醫學.
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讓他改寫了醫學中的這個領域。
04:32
Now if we look forward前鋒 a bit
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讓我們再往前看一點
04:35
to the 19th century世紀,
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來到十九世紀,
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we find a new style樣式 of technology技術.
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我們找到科技的新面貌。
04:39
What we find is,
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我們找到的是,
04:41
no longer simple簡單 tools工具,
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不再使用簡單的器具,
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but systems系統.
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而改使用系統。
04:46
We find more and more
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我們找到愈來愈多
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complex複雜 arrangements安排 of machines
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以複雜的組合而成的機器,
04:50
that make it harder更難 and harder更難
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讓我們愈來愈難察覺
04:52
to diagnose診斷 what's going on.
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到底發生了什麼事情。
04:54
And the first people who saw that
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第一個發現這個問題的人是
04:56
were the telegrapherstelegraphers of the mid-中-19th century世紀,
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是十九世紀中葉的電報員,
04:59
who were the original原版的 hackers黑客.
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也是最早的駭客。
05:01
Thomas托馬斯 Edison愛迪生 would have been very, very comfortable自在
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愛迪生在現今的軟體公司
05:04
in the atmosphere大氣層 of a software軟件 firm公司 today今天.
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應該會過得非常非常好。
05:07
And these hackers黑客 had a word
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而這些駭客
05:10
for those mysterious神秘 bugs蟲子 in telegraph電報 systems系統
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給那些電報系統中的錯誤取了名字,
05:13
that they called bugs蟲子.
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就叫作蟲子。
05:15
That was the origin起源 of the word "bug竊聽器."
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這就是為什麼現在叫這些錯誤「蟲子」。
05:19
This consciousness意識, though雖然,
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這樣的想法
05:21
was a little slow to seep滲透 through通過 the general一般 population人口,
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並沒有很快的滲入大眾,
05:24
even people who were very, very well informed通知.
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就算是那些很有知識的人也沒有特別瞭解到這點。
05:27
Samuel塞繆爾 Clemens克萊門斯, Mark標記 Twain吐溫,
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Samuel Clemens也就是馬克吐溫
05:29
was a big investor投資者
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是至少到1918年
05:31
in the most complex複雜 machine of all times --
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是美國專利局當中
05:34
at least最小 until直到 1918 --
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最複雜的機器
05:36
registered註冊 with the U.S. Patent專利 Office辦公室.
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的大投資者。
05:38
That was the Paige佩奇 typesetter排字.
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那就是派及打字機。
05:40
The Paige佩奇 typesetter排字
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派及打字機
05:42
had 18,000 parts部分.
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總共有一萬八千個零件。
05:44
The patent專利 had 64 pages網頁 of text文本
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專利總共有64頁文字
05:47
and 271 figures人物.
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和271張圖。
05:51
It was such這樣 a beautiful美麗 machine
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那是個非常棒的機器,
05:53
because it did everything that a human人的 being存在 did
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因為它做到一個人在準備模板時做的
05:56
in setting設置 type類型 --
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所有事情,
05:58
including包含 returning回國 the type類型 to its place地點,
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包括把模板回覆原樣,
06:00
which哪一個 was a very difficult thing.
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這是件非常難的事。
06:02
And Mark標記 Twain吐溫, who knew知道 all about typesetting排版,
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馬克吐溫,這個瞭解所有關於字體模板的人,
06:04
really was smitten重拳出擊 by this machine.
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非常迷戀這部機器。
06:07
Unfortunately不幸, he was smitten重拳出擊 in more ways方法 than one,
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不幸的,他不止在一方面的痴戀著這部機器,
06:10
because it made製作 him bankrupt破產者,
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因為這讓他破產了,
06:12
and he had to tour遊覽 the world世界 speaking請講
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所以他需要到處去演講
06:14
to recoup補償 his money.
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才能賺回些錢。
06:17
And this was an important重要 thing
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這對十九世紀的科技來說,
06:19
about 19th century世紀 technology技術,
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是件重要的事,
06:21
that all these relationships關係 among其中 parts部分
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這些不同零件間的關係
06:23
could make the most brilliant輝煌 idea理念 fall秋季 apart距離,
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可以讓最傑出的想法崩壞,
06:27
even when judged判斷 by the most expert專家 people.
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就算是最專業的人士來看亦是如此。
06:29
Now there is something else其他, though雖然, in the early 20th century世紀
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在二十世紀有件事發生了,
06:32
that made製作 things even more complicated複雜.
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讓整件事變得更複雜了。
06:35
And that was that safety安全 technology技術 itself本身
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就算是在安全技術上
06:38
could be a source資源 of danger危險.
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都有可能有危險。
06:40
The lesson of the Titanic泰坦尼克號, for a lot of the contemporaries同時代,
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鐵達尼號的教訓是
06:43
was that you must必須 have enough足夠 lifeboats救生艇
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你一定要有足夠載
06:45
for everyone大家 on the ship.
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全船所有人的救生艇。
06:47
And this was the result結果
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而這是透過
06:50
of the tragic悲慘 loss失利 of lives生活
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犧牲那些無法做到救生艇的人
06:52
of people who could not get into them.
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才得到的結果。
06:54
However然而, there was another另一個 case案件, the Eastland伊斯特蘭,
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但是,也有另外一個例子。在Eastland,
06:57
a ship that capsized翻船 in Chicago芝加哥 Harbor港口 in 1915,
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1915年在芝加哥海灣有個滿載的船
07:01
and it killed殺害 841 people --
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犧牲了841條人命,
07:04
that was 14 more
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比鐵達尼號
07:06
than the passenger乘客 toll收費 of the Titanic泰坦尼克號.
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的總人數還多14人。
07:09
The reason原因 for it, in part部分, was
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這個意外的部份原因是
07:11
the extra額外 life boats that were added添加
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船上載了太多救生艇,
07:14
that made製作 this already已經 unstable不穩定 ship
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讓這艘不穩定的船
07:17
even more unstable不穩定.
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更加的不穩定。
07:19
And that again proves證明
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這再次證明了
07:21
that when you're talking about unintended意外 consequences後果,
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在討論始料未及的後果時,
07:24
it's not that easy簡單 to know
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很難確切知道
07:26
the right lessons教訓 to draw.
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到底應該要學到什麼。
07:28
It's really a question of the system系統, how the ship was loaded,
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在這個案例上最重要的是船如何裝載貨物的,
07:31
the ballast壓載 and many許多 other things.
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壓載量和其他東西的配合。
07:35
So the 20th century世紀, then,
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所以在二十世紀,
07:38
saw how much more complex複雜 reality現實 was,
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我們看到現實是多麼複雜的,
07:40
but it also saw a positive side.
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但是以一個好的方面來看的。
07:43
It saw that invention發明
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我們看到許多發明
07:46
could actually其實 benefit效益 from emergencies緊急情況.
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可以在災難中受益。
07:48
It could benefit效益
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也可以在
07:50
from tragedies悲劇.
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悲劇事件中受益。
07:53
And my favorite喜愛 example of that --
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而我最喜歡的例子是--
07:55
which哪一個 is not really widely廣泛 known已知
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並不是大眾所認為的
07:57
as a technological技術性 miracle奇蹟,
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科技奇蹟,
07:59
but it may可能 be one of the greatest最大 of all times,
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但有可能是古今最棒的發明之一,
08:02
was the scaling縮放 up of penicillin青黴素 in the Second第二 World世界 War戰爭.
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就是在第二次世界大戰盤尼西林的大量生產。
08:06
Penicillin青黴素 was discovered發現 in 1928,
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盤尼西林在1928年被發現,
08:09
but even by 1940,
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但一直到1940年
08:11
no commercially商業 and medically醫療 useful有用 quantities數量 of it
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仍然沒有達成任何商業上或是醫學上
08:14
were being存在 produced生成.
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的實用量產階段。
08:16
A number of pharmaceutical製藥 companies公司 were working加工 on it.
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有一些藥廠正在研究這個。
08:19
They were working加工 on it independently獨立地,
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他們各自對它做研究,
08:21
and they weren't getting得到 anywhere隨地.
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但他們並沒有發現什麼。
08:23
And the Government政府 Research研究 Bureau
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然後國家研究組織
08:25
brought representatives代表 together一起
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將這些藥廠的代表們集合起來
08:27
and told them that this is something
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跟他們說他們
08:29
that has to be doneDONE.
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必須做些什麼。
08:31
And not only did they do it,
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他們不但做到了,
08:33
but within two years年份,
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且在兩年內,
08:35
they scaled縮放 up penicillin青黴素
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將盤尼西林從
08:37
from preparation製備 in one-liter一升 flasks
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一公升燒瓶製備的規模
08:40
to 10,000-gallon-加侖 vats大桶.
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量產成一萬加侖大桶子的量。
08:44
That was how quickly很快 penicillin青黴素 was produced生成
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盤尼西林可以這麼快地被生產,
08:48
and became成為 one of the greatest最大 medical advances進步 of all time.
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而且成為醫學上一個無法取代的進展。
08:52
In the Second第二 World世界 War戰爭, too,
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同樣在第二次世界大戰,
08:54
the existence存在
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英國輻射測量中心
08:56
of solar太陽能 radiation輻射
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測量到
08:58
was demonstrated證明 by studies學習 of interference干擾
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輻射干擾而證明了
09:01
that was detected檢測 by the radar雷達 stations of Great Britain英國.
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太陽輻射的存在。
09:05
So there were benefits好處 in calamities災難 --
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這對災害研究是有益的--
09:08
benefits好處 to pure science科學,
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對純科學有益,
09:10
as well as to applied應用的 science科學
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對應用科學有益,
09:12
and medicine醫學.
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對醫學有益。
09:15
Now when we come to the period after the Second第二 World世界 War戰爭,
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現在當我們來到第二次世界大戰之後的時代,
09:18
unintended意外 consequences後果 get even more interesting有趣.
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無心的後果變得越來越有趣了。
09:22
And my favorite喜愛 example of that
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而我最喜歡的例子是
09:24
occurred發生 beginning開始 in 1976,
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在1976年初發生的事情。
09:27
when it was discovered發現
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在那年初
09:29
that the bacteria causing造成 Legionnaires軍團 disease疾病
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造成發現退伍軍人病的細菌
09:32
had always been present當下 in natural自然 waters水域,
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一直都存在於自然水中,
09:35
but it was the precise精確 temperature溫度 of the water
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但在通風、空調系統中,
09:39
in heating加熱, ventilating and air空氣 conditioning空調 systems系統
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水溫剛好被
09:42
that raised上調 the right temperature溫度
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加熱至
09:46
for the maximum最大值 reproduction再生產
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適合讓退伍軍人病菌
09:49
of Legionella軍團菌 bacillus桿菌.
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可以大量繁殖的溫度。
09:51
Well, technology技術 to the rescue拯救.
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當然,科技來解決問題。
09:53
So chemists化學家 got to work,
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所以化學家研究了一下,
09:55
and they developed發達 a bactericide殺菌劑
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他們發明了一種殺菌劑,
09:57
that became成為 widely廣泛 used in those systems系統.
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後來在空調系統中被廣泛使用。
10:00
But something else其他 happened發生 in the early 1980s,
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但在1980年代也發生了一些事情,
10:04
and that was that there was a mysterious神秘 epidemic疫情
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就是全美國的磁帶播放器
10:06
of failures故障 of tape膠帶 drives驅動器
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都莫名其妙地
10:09
all over the United聯合的 States狀態.
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突然不能用了。
10:11
And IBMIBM, which哪一個 made製作 them,
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製造廠商IBM
10:14
just didn't know what to do.
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完全不知道該怎麼辦。
10:17
They commissioned委託 a group of their best最好 scientists科學家們
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他們帶來了一組最好的科學家
10:20
to investigate調查,
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來研究這個問題,
10:22
and what they found發現 was
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然後發現
10:24
that all these tape膠帶 drives驅動器
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這些磁帶播放器
10:26
were located位於 near ventilation通風 ducts管道.
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都放在通風口附近。
10:29
What happened發生 was the bactericide殺菌劑 was formulated制定
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事實上是上述殺菌劑
10:32
with minute分鐘 traces痕跡 of tin.
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會製造微量的錫。
10:34
And these tin particles粒子 were deposited沉積 on the tape膠帶 heads
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而且這些錫粒子會附著在播放器的磁頭上
10:37
and were crashing轟然 the tape膠帶 heads.
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讓整個磁頭壞掉。
10:40
So they reformulated重新 the bactericide殺菌劑.
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所以他們更改了殺菌劑的配方。
10:43
But what's interesting有趣 to me
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但我覺得這個例子有趣的是
10:45
is that this was the first case案件
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這大概是第一次
10:47
of a mechanical機械 device設備
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機械儀器
10:49
suffering痛苦, at least最小 indirectly間接, from a human人的 disease疾病.
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因為人類疾病而受到損壞。
10:52
So it shows節目 that we're really all in this together一起.
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所以這告訴我們我們跟這一切都有關。
10:55
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:57
In fact事實, it also shows節目 something interesting有趣,
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事實上,這也告訴我們另一件有趣的事,
11:00
that although雖然 our capabilities功能 and technology技術
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就是雖然我們的科技
11:03
have been expanding擴大 geometrically幾何,
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正在以指數成長,
11:05
unfortunately不幸, our ability能力 to model模型 their long-term長期 behavior行為,
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但不幸的,我們預測長期結果的能力
11:08
which哪一個 has also been increasing增加,
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卻僅僅以
11:10
has been increasing增加 only arithmetically算術.
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線性成長罷了。
11:13
So one of the characteristic特性 problems問題 of our time
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所以我們現今面臨的大問題是
11:16
is how to close this gap間隙
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要如何縮小
11:18
between之間 capabilities功能 and foresight先見之明.
258
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這兩者中間的差距。
11:21
One other very positive consequence後果
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另外一個二十世紀科技
11:24
of 20th century世紀 technology技術, though雖然,
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的重要正面結果是
11:27
was the way in which哪一個 other kinds of calamities災難
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這些災難可以
11:31
could lead to positive advances進步.
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增進正面的發展。
11:34
There are two historians歷史學家 of business商業
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在馬里蘭大學的兩個
11:37
at the University大學 of Maryland馬里蘭,
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商業歷史學家
11:39
Brent黑雁 Goldfarb戈德法布 and David大衛 Kirsch基爾希,
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Brent Goldfarb和David Kirsch
11:41
who have doneDONE some extremely非常 interesting有趣 work,
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對歷史上重要的發明
11:43
much of it still unpublished未公佈,
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做了一些
11:46
on the history歷史 of major重大的 innovations創新.
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大部份尚未發表的研究。
11:48
They have combined結合 the list名單 of major重大的 innovations創新,
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他們將史上重要的發明排成一個清單,
11:51
and they've他們已經 discovered發現 that the greatest最大 number, the greatest最大 decade,
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然後從他們的清單中,
11:54
for fundamental基本的 innovations創新,
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他們發現最多東西
11:56
as reflected反射的 in all of the lists名單 that others其他 have made製作 --
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被發明的時代,
12:00
a number of lists名單 that they have merged合併的 --
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就是在他們清單中最常出現的時代
12:02
was the Great Depression蕭條.
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是大蕭條時期。
12:05
And nobody沒有人 knows知道 just why this was so,
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沒有人知道為什麼,
12:08
but one story故事 can reflect反映 something of it.
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但以下這個故事可以反映這個事實。
12:11
It was the origin起源 of the Xerox複印 copier複印機,
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就是全錄影印機發明者,
12:14
which哪一個 celebrated著名 its 50th anniversary週年
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就是去年慶祝了50週年慶
12:17
last year.
279
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的那個。
12:19
And Chester切斯特 Carlson卡爾森, the inventor發明者,
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Chester Carlson,一個發明家,
12:24
was a patent專利 attorney律師.
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也是一個專利律師。
12:27
He really was not intending打算
282
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他事實上沒有很想要
12:30
to work in patent專利 research研究,
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做專利研究,
12:32
but he couldn't不能 really find an alternative替代 technical技術 job工作.
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但他找不到其他的工作。
12:36
So this was the best最好 job工作 he could get.
285
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這是他能找到最好的工作。
12:38
He was upset煩亂 by the low quality質量 and high cost成本
286
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他對現有的影印複製
12:42
of existing現有 patent專利 reproductions複製品,
287
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的低品質及高成本感到不滿,
12:45
and so he started開始 to develop發展
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所以他開始開發一種新的
12:48
a system系統 of dry photocopying複印,
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影印辦法,
12:51
which哪一個 he patented專利 in the late晚了 1930s --
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後來他在1930年代得到了專利,
12:54
and which哪一個 became成為 the first dry photocopier複印機
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也成為1960年
12:58
that was commercially商業 practical實際的
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第一個有商業價值的
13:00
in 1960.
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影印機。
13:02
So we see that sometimes有時,
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所以我們看到,有時候
13:04
as a result結果 of these dislocations錯位,
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是一些不合適的事情
13:06
as a result結果 of people
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一些人
13:08
leaving離開 their original原版的 intended career事業
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沒有做他們原本想做的工作
13:11
and going into something else其他
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而轉到另外一個領域,
13:13
where their creativity創造力 could make a difference區別,
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讓他們的創造力可以飛馳。
13:15
that depressions窪地
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也就是說挫折
13:17
and all kinds of other unfortunate不幸的 events事件
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或是其它不幸的事件,
13:20
can have a paradoxically自相矛盾 stimulating刺激 effect影響
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可能會有對創造力
13:23
on creativity創造力.
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有一些前所未有的啓發。
13:25
What does this mean?
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這是什麼意思呢?
13:27
It means手段, I think,
305
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我覺得我的意思是
13:29
that we're living活的 in a time of unexpected意外 possibilities可能性.
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我們正生活在一個有許多事無法預測的時代。
13:31
Think of the financial金融 world世界, for example.
307
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看看現在的金融界。
13:34
The mentor導師 of Warren養兔場 Buffett巴菲特, Benjamin本傑明 Graham格雷厄姆,
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Benjamin Graham也就是巴菲特的導師
13:37
developed發達 his system系統 of value investing投資
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是從1929年經濟危機的損失中
13:42
as a result結果 of his own擁有 losses損失
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發展出他的
13:44
in the 1929 crash緊急.
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價值投資理論。
13:46
And he published發表 that book
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而且他在1930年代早期
13:48
in the early 1930s,
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發表了這本書,
13:51
and the book still exists存在 in further進一步 editions版本
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這本書到目前仍然持續改版
13:53
and is still a fundamental基本的 textbook教科書.
315
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成為重要的教科書。
13:55
So many許多 important重要 creative創作的 things can happen發生
316
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所以說很多的重大創意
13:59
when people learn學習 from disasters災害.
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可以在人們碰到災難的時候被啓發。
14:02
Now think of the large and small plagues瘟疫 that we have now --
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現在想想我們遇到的大大小小的災難--
14:06
bed bugs蟲子, killer兇手 bees蜜蜂, spam垃圾郵件 --
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塵蟎、虎頭蜂、垃圾郵件--
14:11
and it's very possible可能 that the solutions解決方案 to those
320
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很有可能這些事情的解決辦法的價值
14:14
will really extend延伸 well beyond the immediate即時 question.
321
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遠超過問題本身。
14:17
If we think, for example, of Louis路易 Pasteur巴斯德,
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舉例來說,如果我們說Louis Pasteur
14:20
who in the 1860s
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在1860年代
14:22
was asked to study研究
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被要求
14:24
the diseases疾病 of silk worms蠕蟲 for the silk industry行業,
325
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為了絲綢工業研究蠶疾病。
14:28
and his discoveries發現 were really the beginning開始
326
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而他的發現事實上是
14:31
of the germ病菌 theory理論 of disease疾病.
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細菌疾病理論的開端。
14:33
So very often經常, some kind of disaster災害 --
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所以很多時候,有些災難--
14:36
sometimes有時 the consequence後果, for example,
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有時候它們的後果,像是
14:39
of over-cultivation過度開墾 of silk worms蠕蟲,
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大量繁殖家蠶,
14:42
which哪一個 was a problem問題 in Europe歐洲 at the time --
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也正是那時歐洲的問題--
14:44
can be the key to something much bigger.
332
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可以是開啟另外一件更重要的事情的鑰匙。
14:46
So this means手段
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也就是說,
14:48
that we need to take a different不同 view視圖
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我們需要以不同的角度
14:50
of unintended意外 consequences後果.
335
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來看始料未及的後果。
14:52
We need to take a really positive view視圖.
336
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我們需要以一個很正面的態度來看。
14:55
We need to see what they can do for us.
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我們需要看到他們可以為我們做什麼。
14:58
We need to learn學習
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我們需要向
15:00
from those figures人物 that I mentioned提到.
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我剛剛提到的那些人們學習。
15:02
We need to learn學習, for example, from Dr博士. Cushing庫欣,
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我們需要學習庫欣醫生,
15:05
who killed殺害 patients耐心
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就是那個在早期
15:07
in the course課程 of his early operations操作.
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失手殺死病人的醫生。
15:09
He had to have some errors錯誤. He had to have some mistakes錯誤.
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他必須要犯過錯。他必須有這些失誤。
15:12
And he learned學到了 meticulously精心 from his mistakes錯誤.
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他很細心地從這些錯誤中學習。
15:15
And as a result結果,
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結果,
15:17
when we say, "This isn't brain surgery手術,"
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當我們說:「這不是腦部手術」時,
15:20
that pays支付 tribute to how difficult it was
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那告訴我們一個人
15:23
for anyone任何人 to learn學習 from their mistakes錯誤
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要在一個被認為很沒希望
15:25
in a field領域 of medicine醫學
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的醫學領域中
15:27
that was considered考慮 so discouraging令人沮喪 in its prospects前途.
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從自我錯誤中學習有多困難。
15:30
And we can also remember記得
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且我們需要記得
15:33
how the pharmaceutical製藥 companies公司
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藥廠如何
15:35
were willing願意 to pool their knowledge知識,
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在緊急事件發生時,
15:37
to share分享 their knowledge知識,
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將他們所知道的知識
15:39
in the face面對 of an emergency,
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分享給大家,
15:41
which哪一個 they hadn't有沒有 really been for years年份 and years年份.
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一件他們幾年來一直沒有做的事。
15:44
They might威力 have been able能夠 to do it earlier.
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他們有可能可以更早做的。
15:47
The message信息, then, for me,
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對我來說,
15:50
about unintended意外 consequences後果
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始料未及的後果的意義是
15:52
is chaos混沌 happens發生;
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混亂是會發生的,
15:55
let's make better use of it.
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我們只是要更妥善地運用他。
15:57
Thank you very much.
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謝謝。
15:59
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Joan Liu
Reviewed by Oliver Hsieh

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.

Why you should listen

Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.

More profile about the speaker
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com